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More than eighteen months after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan on 15 August 2021, it is time to assess the level of threat deriving from the jihadist groups based in the country.

One should always bear in mind that all of these groups were present in Afghanistan before the Taliban takeover and they have not expanded significantly since. All that changed is the regime in Kabul.

Even in terms of counter-terrorism, there are not many obvious changes, given that after the US withdrew the bulk of its forces in 2014, operations against jihadist groups have been limited to drone and air strikes and that the Afghan security forces were contributing little, absorbed as they were in a fight for survival against the Taliban.

After an apparent lull of a few months after the total withdrawal in the summer of 2021, US drones have reappeared on Afghanistans skies, in all likelihood following a basing agreement with Pakistan, even if the Pakistani authorities deny it. Indeed, it was at the end of July 2022 that finally, the US managed to nab Ayman al-Zawahiri with a drone strike in Kabul.

This report, therefore, is not merely about the threat represented by Afghanistan-based jihadist groups to European and Middle Eastern countries, but also about the level of that threat, compared to what it was before 15 August 2021.

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Afghanistan Under the Taliban: The Global Jihadist Threat to Europe ... - European Eye on Radicalization