Iran’s Tricky Balancing Act in Afghanistan – War on the Rocks
Editors Note: Some links in this article lead to Iranian media sites. If access to such sites is prohibited by your employers policy, please do not click links in this article from a work computer.
A senior Iranian military leader, Esmail Qaani, traveled in late June to the Syrian border town of Albu Kamal to rally a group of fighters. Normally, this type of visit would not be unusual. Qaani commands the Quds Force the wing of Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responsible for external action and is expected to travel to Syria to coordinate Irans efforts to preserve the regime of Bashar al Assad. What made Qaanis trip noteworthy was that he was visiting the Fatemiyoun Division, an Iran-backed proxy force whose foot soldiers are Afghans from the Shiite Hazara community.
While fighters of the Fatemiyoun Division remain active in Syria, so far they have been sidelined in Afghanistan. That could change. The Fatemiyoun constitute a small but potent force with longstanding and extensive ties to Iran and could prove useful to Iranian officials as they craft their Afghan policy, especially if the Taliban continue to press their military advantage. On July 7, Irans political leaders hosted talks between Taliban and Afghan government representatives in Tehran. While Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif used the meeting to celebrate the U.S. departure from Afghanistan, he also warned that continuing clashes between Taliban fighters and the Afghan government would be costly. With the American military exit from Afghanistan due to be completed by Aug. 31, Iranian policymakers are strategizing about their future approach toward Afghanistan. They face a difficult set of decisions, including how they will balance their countrys strong ties to Afghanistans minority Hazara community against Irans diplomatic dance with the Taliban and the Afghan government.
The Fatemiyoun pale in comparison to the Taliban both in numbers and capacity. But they could prove either to be a lever of influence for Iran, if the Taliban and Afghan government do ultimately cut a deal, or a political liability, if an all-out civil war ensues in Afghanistan and the Taliban continue to target the countrys Shiite Hazara community.
There is significant risk of blowback for Iran if Afghanistans conflict takes on an even more sectarian cast with Afghan Hazara Shiites pitted against the predominantly Pashtun Sunni Taliban. If the history of the Afghan conflicts is any guide, such a scenario could draw in Irans regional rivals, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, who would be likely to support the Taliban, as they have in the past. Plus, the United States has already demonstrated, with recent retaliatory airstrikes against Iran-backed proxies in Syria and Iraq, that it is prepared to use any means necessary to check threats to American interests in the region. Going forward, Iranian officials will likely feel a need to tread carefully with both the Fatemiyoun and the Taliban.
The Rise of the Fatemiyoun Division
As we explain in a recent report, the links between Irans revolutionary guard and Afghan and Pakistani Hazaras have their roots in the Iran-Iraq War. After Saddam Husseins Iraq invaded Iran in September 1980, Irans revolutionary government cast the war as an opportunity for Shiites to demonstrate their faith. Many Afghan Shiites answered the call by heading to Iran, where they were trained by the revolutionary guard.
During the 1980s, Irans effort to stand up an Afghan paramilitary force underwent several phases, name changes, and reorganizations. As well as training Shiite fighters in Iran, the guard also dispatched several of its officers to serve as cultural and military advisers in Afghanistan, where they embedded with cells in the resistance movement that was fighting the Soviet Unions occupation of that country.
Following the Soviet withdrawal, conflict in Afghanistan raged on as various factions fought for power. Throughout the 1990s, Iran provided support to Afghan Shiite groups and the Northern Alliance in their fight against the Taliban. Qassem Soleimani was among the revolutionary guard personnel involved in that effort. He would become the head of the Quds Force in 1998 and remained its commander until he was killed in a U.S. drone strike last year.
From these deep and longstanding links to Afghanistans Shiite Hazara community, in 2012 Iran established the Fatemiyoun Division as part of its wide-ranging effort to support Syrias Assad regime in its fight against an armed rebellion. Under the supervision and direction of Soleimani, the revolutionary guard recruited todays Afghan Hazara foreign fighters for that purpose. It also established the Fatemiyouns Pakistani sister unit, the Zeynabiyoun Brigade. Thousands of ethnic Afghan and Pakistani Hazara foreign fighters fought and died with those units to help save the Assad regime.
In addition to their battlefield impact, the Fatemiyoun have been a significant propaganda asset for the revolutionary guard, which works to persuade constituents in the Shiite community across the region to support the Iranian government and its policies. Touting the daring and successes of Afghan foreign fighters in Syria has played an integral part in that campaign. Iran-financed propaganda about the Fatemiyoun employs strategic narratives related to differences in Sunni and Shiite interpretations of Islamic law and just governance, and it stokes fears among the Hazara about the potency of the predominantly Sunni Taliban and Islamic State forces in Afghanistan and Syria.
Soleimani was the key architect and star of Irans propaganda strategy. He made a habit of snapping frontline selfies with the Fatemiyoun and recounting their heroics. The Fatemiyoun achieved a substantial social media following on YouTube and Twitter until both platforms took down their accounts. Even so, the Fatemiyoun remain active on other social media as a result of Irans investment. They have thousands of followers on encrypted social media platforms such as Telegram and its Iranian government-controlled counterpart, Soroush, which they use to showcase their battlefield exploits in Syria. Fighters shared videos of combat on social media, which proved to be an effective recruiting tool among those who joined the cause were a significant number of American-trained former soldiers in the Afghan National Army and elite Afghan special operations forces.
The revolutionary guards propaganda about the Fatemiyoun could have long-lasting ramifications. The guard corps has pushed sectarian narratives that may prove difficult to control in the future, notably including in relation to Afghanistan. In strengthening the Fatemiyoun, the revolutionary guard has given power to a network that, while deeply indebted to Iran, is not fully under its control. For Iran, managing risks in Afghanistan, where the Fatemiyoun are an important political force, could prove difficult over time if the Taliban continue their aggressive and bloody campaign of targeting Hazara communities. In that event, Iranian officials may be tempted to provide significant support to Fatemiyoun fighters to help Iran maintain its influence over the Hazara community and combat the Taliban.
The Future of the Fatemiyoun and Irans Approach Toward Afghanistan
Even as the Afghan and Pakistani Shiite militias involvement in Syria winds down, their power, and the narratives through which Iran framed their mobilization, will continue to shape South Asia and the Middle East for years to come. This is especially true in Afghanistan, where Irans strategic hedging and years-long quiet campaign to cultivate influence with the Taliban has contributed significantly to the military gains made by the insurgents over the last several years.
It remains to be seen if Iranian officials are able to sustain relations with both their Fatemiyoun proxies and the Taliban after the exit of their common enemy, the United States. Questions abound about whether and when Irans newly elected president, Ebrahim Raisi, might leverage Iranian influence over tens of thousands of Hazaras in Afghanistan and across South Asia who answered Tehrans call to join the fight in Syria almost a decade ago. For Raisi, who has vowed to make Irans economic revival a centerpiece of his tenure, steering political outcomes in Afghanistan, which is one of Irans largest trading partners, is a crucial part of his own political calculus.
There are increasing concerns that the Talibans victories on the ground may translate into the revival of the harsh and bloody targeting of Afghan Shiite Hazaras, which could trigger unwelcome regional instability and have pronounced effects on Irans ailing economy. Iranian officials and media outlets close to the revolutionary guard have argued that the Taliban have changed. Whether that is true or not, Irans approach to dealing with the predominantly Pashtun Taliban will likely continue on Raisis watch in the near term. Playing all three major sides pro-Taliban Pashtuns, ethnic Hazara Shiites, and Afghan elites affiliated with the government in Kabul will likely be critical to Tehrans approach in Afghanistan no matter what Washington does next.
The mixed signals coming out of Tehran on engagement in Afghan affairs may be both a sign of Irans pragmatism and a reflection of a deeper divide between hard-liners aligned with the supreme leader and reform-minded Iranian critics of Ali Khameneis regime. Disagreements between various camps on Irans engagement in Afghanistan have openly erupted in the Iranian press. In a recent column that appeared in Irans centrist online daily Arman, for instance, former Iranian diplomat Seyed Ali Khorram sharply criticized Khameneis engagement with the Taliban, saying it only emboldens the Taliban to continue their aggressive attacks against Afghan Shiite Hazaras. Khorram echoed the complaints of other Iranian reformists and reminded readers that Taliban attacks on Iranian diplomats during the 1990s brought Afghanistan and Iran to the brink of war.
Given that Iran has long positioned itself as the champion and protector of Afghanistans marginalized Shiite Hazara population, the internal rifts emerging over Irans cultivation of the Taliban suggest that Tehrans diplomatic dalliances with the group may result only in a temporary marriage of convenience that could easily disintegrate after the U.S. drawdown is completed this summer. For now, how Iranian officials play their cards in Afghanistan is a game of wait and see.
Candace Rondeaux directs the Future Frontlines program at New America and is a professor at the Center on the Future of War at Arizona State University. She has covered the Afghan conflict for 13 years, working variously for the Washington Post, the International Crisis Group, and the U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction.
Amir Toumaj is a nonresident fellow at New America and is the co-founder of the Resistance Axis Monitor.
Arif Ammar is an independent researcher based in Washington and a native of Kabul. He has produced analysis on the Afghan conflict for the International Crisis Group and the Armed Conflict Location and Event Database.
Image: Office of the Supreme Leader
Read this article:
Iran's Tricky Balancing Act in Afghanistan - War on the Rocks
- At town hall, Trump mixes up Alaska and Afghanistan with confusing remarks on oil - Alaska Beacon - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- Where is Afghanistan Three Years into Taliban Rule? - United States Institute of Peace - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- Blinken subpoenaed to appear next week before House committee over Afghanistan - Reuters - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- Afghanistan reopens its embassy in Oman, the Taliban say - The Associated Press - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- Afghanistan vs South Africa 3rd ODI Highlights: South Africa Register Consolation Win Over Afghanist.. - NDTV Sports - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- Why Does the Taliban Hate the Women of Afghanistan This Much? | Opinion - Newsweek - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- The Taliban have suspended polio vaccination campaigns in Afghanistan, the UN says - The Associated Press - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- The tragic politicization of the Afghanistan withdrawal - Columbia Journalism Review - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- State Department accuses House GOP of calling Blinken to testify about Afghanistan when he's away - The Associated Press - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- Afghanistan vs South Africa 3rd ODI Live Streaming: When And Where To Watch - NDTV Sports - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- ABC admits video of Australian soldiers firing from helicopter in Afghanistan was incorrectly edited - The Guardian - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- AFG vs SA, 3rd ODI Live Cricket Score: Afghanistan bat first against South Africa - The Times of India - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- Afghanistan script history with first ever win over South Africa - ICC Cricket - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- Afghanistan advances to knockout stage of Futsal World Cup - Amu TV - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- Terrorists Use Weapons Left by U.S. in Afghanistan to Attack Civilians, Police in Pakistan - Judicial Watch - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- South Africa clinch consolation win against Afghanistan in third ODI - The Times of India - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- How will Afghanistan feature in the race for the White House? - Arab News - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- The Observer view on Afghanistan: Britain and the US are complicit in the Talibans oppression of women - The Guardian - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- GOP probe of Bidens Afghanistan exit expands as election nears - The Washington Post - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- Everything To Know About Taliban's New "Vice And Virtue" Law In Afghanistan - NDTV - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- Opinion: The Taliban are waging war on women in Afghanistan. This is how we are resisting - The Globe and Mail - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- Aline Jalliet, author: 'In Afghanistan, the female voice itself becomes an act of dissent' - Le Monde - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- Analysis | Trump appears to have misled Gold Star families on troop deaths in Afghanistan - The Washington Post - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- GOP-led House panel tells Blinken to testify on Afghanistan withdrawal "or face contempt" - Axios - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- Afghanistan vs New Zealand One-Off Test Live Streaming: When and where to watch AFG vs NZ Test in Greater Noida? - The Indian Express - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- House Republicans subpoena Secretary Blinken for testimony on US withdrawal from Afghanistan - The Associated Press - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- Afghanistan vs New Zealand one-off Test Live streaming: When and where to watch - India Today - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- New Zealand seek to exploit Afghanistan's red-ball inexperience in one-off Test - The Hindu - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- 'In Waves and War' Review: Doc Explores Afghanistan Vets' PTSD - Variety - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- Heres how we can help oppressed women and girls in Afghanistan | Letters - The Guardian - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- Blinken Subpoenaed for Testimony on Afghanistan Withdrawal - Newsweek - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- 'We can beat any team' says Afghanistan captain Hashmatullah Shahidi ahead of facing New Zealand - The Times of India - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- Austria to team up with Germany in joint deportations to Afghanistan - Euronews - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- Assessing Claims That Trump Freed the Leader of Afghanistan From Prison in 2018 - The Dispatch - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- Afghanistan Vs New Zealand One-Off Test Live Streaming: Date, Time, Venue, And Other Details - Outlook India - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- AFG vs NZ Live: When and where to watch Afghanistan vs New Zealand Test live on TV and streaming in India? - India TV News - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- 'Thats false': Trump caught lying about Afghanistan withdrawal to families of slain veterans - AlterNet - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- Scotland, Gaza and Afghanistan Where have the Gods Gone? - The Wire - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- White House says Biden and Harris werent invited to Arlington Cemetery by families of service members killed during Afghanistan withdrawal - NBC News - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- Reading the UAEs outreach to the Talibans Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan - Observer Research Foundation - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- Afghanistan: Meet the midwife who stayed - UN News - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- The Taliban says it wants people to visit Afghanistan. Heres what its like - CNN - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- We may be done with Afghanistan, but it's not done with us: Ex-Green Beret - Fox News - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Three years after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, meet the midwife who stayed, delivered and saved lives - United Nations Population Fund - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Trump would demand Afghanistan disaster resignations, back pay for troops fired for refusing vax on Day 1, he says at NC rally - New York Post - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- A Marine's harrowing account of how he knew Afghanistan was doomed nine years before the withdrawal - Daily Mail - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Whats more important, my dream or the women of Afghanistan?: breakdancer Manizha Talash on her Olympic protest - The Guardian - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Uzbekistan Forges Ahead, Deepening Relations With Taliban-ruled Afghanistan - The Diplomat - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Biden Campaigns, Afghanistan Votes and Hawaii Becomes a State: Picturing This Week in History Aug. 19 25 - U.S. News & World Report - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- No singing or reading aloud: Afghanistan introduces new law putting further restrictions on women - The Times of India - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- US Has Hit Back At Militants For Afghanistan Suicide Bombing That Killed 13 Service Members: Official - International Business Times - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
- Inside the Virginia Newsroom Trying to Save Afghanistan From Tyranny - The Atlantic - August 20th, 2024 [August 20th, 2024]
- A shootout on Pakistan's frontier with Afghanistan kills 5 militants and 3 Pakistani soldiers - ABC News - August 20th, 2024 [August 20th, 2024]
- Three years ago this month America withdrew from Afghanistan - The Economist - August 20th, 2024 [August 20th, 2024]
- Afghanistan owes Trump building $200,000 - Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington - August 20th, 2024 [August 20th, 2024]
- Former Afghanistan president calls on Taliban to allow education for girls - JURIST - August 20th, 2024 [August 20th, 2024]
- Inside the Talibans Afghanistan - The National Interest Online - August 20th, 2024 [August 20th, 2024]
- Hundreds of cases of femicide recorded in Afghanistan since Taliban takeover are tip of the iceberg - The Guardian - August 20th, 2024 [August 20th, 2024]
- How Biden allowed the Taliban to return to rule Afghanistan - New York Post - August 20th, 2024 [August 20th, 2024]
- Harris sidesteps blame for bungled Afghanistan withdrawal; congressional report to outline role - Washington Times - August 20th, 2024 [August 20th, 2024]
- Reimagining Womens Rights in Afghanistan: Federalism as a Pathway to Gender Equality - JURIST - August 20th, 2024 [August 20th, 2024]
- Need for an Urgent Rethink of International Response to the Human Rights Crisis in Afghanistan - Human Rights Watch - August 20th, 2024 [August 20th, 2024]
- The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and Uzbekistan have agreed to increase trade to $ 3 billion. - Eurasia Daily - August 20th, 2024 [August 20th, 2024]
- 3 years after the Talibans return, Afghanistan is a broken country swarming with terrorists again - The Conversation Indonesia - August 20th, 2024 [August 20th, 2024]
- Uzbek prime minister is in Afghanistan in highest-level visit since the Taliban took power - Stars and Stripes - August 20th, 2024 [August 20th, 2024]
- Life in Afghanistan dire as Taliban mark 3 years of rule - DW (English) - August 20th, 2024 [August 20th, 2024]
- Afghanistan and its women in oblivion - The Diplomat in Spain - August 20th, 2024 [August 20th, 2024]
- Afghanistan Three Years after the Taliban Takeover - Crisis Group - August 16th, 2024 [August 16th, 2024]
- A timeline of events in Afghanistan in the 3 years since the Talibans takeover - The Associated Press - August 16th, 2024 [August 16th, 2024]
- Afghanistan: Three years of Taliban rule and international inaction have left Afghan community with little hope - Amnesty International - August 16th, 2024 [August 16th, 2024]
- Afghans in Vermont recognize 3-year anniversary of U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan - Vermont Biz - August 16th, 2024 [August 16th, 2024]
- Stefanik Statement on the Third Anniversary of the Biden-Harris Catastrophic Afghanistan Withdrawal - Congresswoman Elise Stefanik - August 16th, 2024 [August 16th, 2024]
- Taliban celebrates three years since returning to power in Afghanistan - FRANCE 24 English - August 16th, 2024 [August 16th, 2024]
- UNGA Side Event Ensuring Aid Effectiveness Amidst Afghanistan's Growing Food Insecurity - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs - August 16th, 2024 [August 16th, 2024]
- Break the Silence: End human rights violations in Afghanistan - Amnesty International - August 16th, 2024 [August 16th, 2024]
- Afghanistan: 20 years of steady education progress almost wiped out - UN News - August 16th, 2024 [August 16th, 2024]
- Afghanistan: Need for an urgent rethink of international response to the human rights crisis - World Organisation Against Torture - August 16th, 2024 [August 16th, 2024]
- I was imprisoned and tortured by the Taliban for protesting gender apartheid in Afghanistan - Atlantic Council - August 16th, 2024 [August 16th, 2024]
- Local Afghans reflect back on the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan three years ago - WBUR News - August 16th, 2024 [August 16th, 2024]
- Radical Taliban observe third year of ruling Afghanistan - Voice of America - VOA News - August 16th, 2024 [August 16th, 2024]