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Reports from Afghanistan now refer to a resurgent Talibanas the violent group has now taken more territory thanitever had sinceit waspushed out of power in 2001. While the situation on the ground israpidly shifting, there is no doubt that the Taliban have the upper hand and mean to keep it that way.Alongside isreportageof what everyone knew allalong theTalibanhasntchanged in the slightest. The old rules against music, shaving beards and girlseducation are back.Andyet another wave of refugeesis onthe move.

In Islamabad, Pakistans National Security AdvisorMoeed Yusuf warneda Senate committee that thesituationin Afghanistan was out of Pakistans control. That was of course an inadvertent admission that the Taliban had been, in fact, always under Pakistani control, but the NSA seemed to be trying to make a public case that Pakistan was in danger. It is, but for reasons that the security establishment may be blind to, while it actuallycheersthe victory that it has sought for more than three decades. No one is fooled, except the Pakistani establishment itself. Despite extensive planning and frenetic diplomacy, trouble is coming to Pakistan.

Also read: Imran Khan should know who really messed up in Afghanistan

As the Taliban rampagesacross Afghanistan, another flow of refugees has begun toTurkey,US,UK, and closer home toneighbouringcountries. TinyTajikistansays its ready to take in 100,000 refugees, whileIranis seeing some 10,000 arriving every day through well-known smuggling routesviaPakistan. Oddly, there is no indication of much movement into Pakistani territory.Datacollected by migration mapping agencies indicate that while some 81 per cent plan to stay in Iran and others are aiming for Europe, just two per cent plan togo toPakistan. The reasons for this indicate a carefully planned policy.

First, Pakistan can police its 267-km border better than it pretends to, with88 per centof its border with Afghanistan double fencedand accompanied byditches, bunds and sensors. Its a one-way system that allows the Taliban to go as they please, but no one elsecomesin. Second, Pakistaniparliamentariansnote that the Taliban are roaming freely in Quetta and adjoining areas. Any fleeing Afghan coming to these areasislikely to be sent back as a Taliban recruit faster than the blink of an eye. When asked why these insurgents were not removed,PakistanArmy chief GeneralQamar JavedBajwaand ISI chiefLt General Faiz Hameedwarnedlawmakers that this would result in a blowback on Pakistan.Thats strangefor a countrythathas no compunctions in removing, killing or threatening its Pashtun and Baloch population, not to mention disobedient political parties.

Third, is the fact that much of the territory opposite Pakistan have already been Taliban-controlled for years. Main border crossings like Spin Boldak have recently fallen, even as the Pakistan Air Force threatened airstrikesif the Afghan Army sought to wrench it back. The strategy is aimed at ensuring that the Taliban police the border areas, thus preventing any huge ingress of desperate people.PakistanForeign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshihas declared thatthe countrywill not take in any more refugees. But if matters worsen, as they surely will, Pakistan has the option ofdealing with700,000refugees expected to arrive orshelterthem. The key point is whether the Taliban can take control over all key border crossings, as well as the dozens of mountain trails that cross into the tribal areas.

Also read: India right to wait till Taliban comes in full view. No need to rush into an Afghan strategy

Before blaming the Taliban for being a bunch of rabble-rousers, remember that the fundamentalist ideologythatsustains their ranks, or the mujahideen before them, was part of a deliberate ISI policy to funnel US funds to the most extremistgroups tostem the tide of rising Pashtun nationalism that had erupted even before the USSR walked in.

Afghans were never fundamentalist; they had it thrust upon them. Now it seems the Taliban are reiterating that with a vengeance.Reportafterreporttalk of the Taliban preventing girls from attending schools, barring the wearing of red and green clothes (the colour of the Afghan flag), shaving and listening to songs. This lunacy haslargelyemanated from Pakistans madrassas, with major madrassaleadersdeclaring their pride at Taliban alumni, and seeing their victories as vindication of this revanchist ideology. The end result is thatgroups like the extremeRight-wing Tehreek-e-Labbaik(TLP)do well in provincial elections, and a former office-bearer of theTehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)has been nominated by Islamabad for the ulema seat in PoK elections.Parliamentis no exception, with passionate statements declaring the Talibanasa protective barrier for Pakistan. Islamist parties and even common people are united in their admiration of Taliban victory against a superpower.

This is ideology coming home to roost; and like all extreme ideologies, it could swallow up its creators.

Also read: Team Bajwa now betting on UK to promote Taliban to get to US indirectly

While the Talibanison a winning spree, itsnot going to be a walkover. Former warlords and the Opposition in Kabul arebanding togetherfor their own survival. Within all this, outside powers are fishing for newproxiesamong the second generation leaders like the son of Ahmed Shah Masood, or even Uzbek warlordAbdul RashidDostum.

Despite the Taliban being sent around to major world capitals such as Beijing, Moscow, and Teheran, few want a Taliban-dominated government in place, despite the best efforts of a sophisticated PR machine that nearly sold the argument of a changed Taliban, particularly to US academics. Such a civil war scenario, where each will backtheirown grouping is Islamabads worst nightmare. There is an even worse scenario. That once within sight of power, the Taliban itself will splinter along its weakest points. Success in insurgency has its own price when each leader wants a share of the pie. Ironically, chances of a civil war are the highest if Kabul falls, with warlords like Atta Mohammad Noor likely to try and carve out their own territory.

The only ones who will welcome civil war are the terrorists. As a recentUN Report observed, theal-Qaeda is still around, aligned with the Taliban through the offices of the Haqqani network in a complex network of intermarriage and operations. This deadly combinationof terrorist groupsis fighting and sharing victories with the Taliban and are therefore largely on the right side of Pakistans intelligence agencies. But this is an uncivil war. With enough money and spunk, any or all of these can be bought by various actors, orthey canjust decide to do their own thing. Its already apparent in the tribal areas wheretwo Pakistani soldierswere recently killed and several wounded incross-border attacks. A flareup of unrest in these areas, bracketed with wounded Pashtun pride, could mean Waziristan redux, or return of the war that sucked in thousands of Pakistani troops in intermittent operations between 2003 and 2014. In that case, Pakistan will find that ithasleft itself wide open to total chaos. Allthe black ravens it has let loose,willfinally come home to roost.Pakistans game of thrones in Afghanistan has gone on for much too long. The audience is simply tired of it.

The author is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. Views are personal.

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Trouble is coming to Pakistan. No matter its double fence on Afghanistan border - ThePrint