What the military needs after Afghanistan – Military Times
After 20 long years, the war in Afghanistan is coming to a close. Yet what does the next chapter for the U.S. military look like?
One projection involves an F-35 pilot shot down by Iran and a U.S. naval destroyer sunk by Beijing in the South China Sea. That is the fictional premise behind a new buzzed-about book, 2034.
The dismal prospects of how the U.S. military might fare in a future war, whether against China, Iran, or some other enemy, has Pentagon planners, defense manufacturers, and service chiefs bracing for a future that will not be kind to the defense budget. Besides ballooning national deficits, non-traditional national security priorities, and pushback against pricey yet unproven fighters like the F-35, the impact of COVID on the U.S. economy, two separate COVID relief packages, and the proposed American Jobs Plan could result in one of the biggest defense budget cuts in modern history.
This very real possibility has the armed services the Army, Marine Corps, Navy, Air Force, and now Space Force each scrambling for a larger piece of the dwindling pie. A U.S. Air Force general recently stated that the U.S. Armys pursuit of long-range artillery and missiles capabilities was stupid. The Army has had to reassure the Marines that they arent trying to encroach on their efforts in the Indo-Pacific region.
Some services are better at crafting compelling fiscal narratives than others. As the late Congressman Ike Skelton shared with one of us in 2009, Congress understands the strategic utility of a carrier strike group or a bomber wing. They have a harder time with an infantry brigade or an armor battalion.
In the wake of the 2013 sequestration, a similar turf war broke out when the military was set to take a roughly $1 trillion cut to its budget. The Department of Defense conducted a controversial study that included a set of scenarios and potential conflicts. Behind closed doors, each service argued that their strengths would be the greatest contribution of winning and therefore should be prioritized in budget decisions. Clearly, none of the scenarios imagined in 2013 have happened.
Now with the news that the U.S. will pull its last troops out of Afghanistan in September, it is anybodys guess where or how U.S. forces will be deployed next. One camp will argue that the next major war will take place on the high seas while another foresees a grand conflict waged across the skies using state-of-the-art manned and unmanned aircraft. Still another camp will insist that any future war must involve island-hopping campaigns in the South Pacific akin to World War II, while yet another will argue that the future portends clashes in outer space and the cyber domains. And some will simply tag every future concept with an appropriate military modifier (cross-domain, multi-domain, or all-domain) in hopes of maintaining an illusion of equity across the services.
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The British military recently endured their own defense budget war. The end result, based on assumptions that other nations would bear the burden of future warfighting, was major cuts to military end strength and the smallest British army to take the field in 300 years.
Landpower, traditionally the domain of army forces, simply doesnt share the same narrative appeal as technologically advanced and often prohibitively expensive platforms and capabilities. In an information age society, putting boots on the ground is increasingly viewed as unnecessary when other capabilities can achieve the same ends without the commitment of blood and treasure. When the budget strings tighten, armies tend to shrink.
But should they? For many landpower advocates, the answer to that question came in the aftermath of the Korean War. You may fly over a land forever; you may bomb it, atomize it, pulverize it and wipe it clean of life, remarked historian T.R. Fehrenbach in his 1964 book, This Kind of War. [B]ut if you desire to defend it, protect it, and keep it for civilization, you must do this on the ground, the way the Roman legions did, by putting your young men into the mud. The U.S. has a terrible history of cutting landpower after wars despite going into Korea and Vietnam with a depleted Army, it wasnt until the 1980s that land forces were prepared for their next fight.
When deterrence fails, the introduction of significant ground forces signals an unmistakable level of national commitment and will. Although much has changed since the wars in Korea and Vietnam, one immutable fact remains: conflicts are decided in the land domain, where the will of the people ultimately rests. Any future conflict will inherently involve all the services, but without landpower namely tanks and troops to achieve a decisive outcome, we are likely to usher in an era of lengthy and inconclusive wars that are passed on to successive generations.
Dont believe the made-in-Hollywood hoopla about drones or cyber deciding the next war. Being able to decisively take and hold territory whether in Crimea or Taiwan or a sandy patch of the Middle East is what matters. The rest is all sci-fi fantasy.
John Spencer is the chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point. Steve Leonard is director of assessments at the University of Kansas School of Business.
Editors note: This is an op-ed and as such, the opinions expressed are those of the author. If you would like to respond, or have an editorial of your own you would like to submit, please contact Military Times managing editor Howard Altman,haltman@militarytimes.com.
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What the military needs after Afghanistan - Military Times
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- The tragic politicization of the Afghanistan withdrawal - Columbia Journalism Review - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
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- Afghanistan vs South Africa 3rd ODI Live Streaming: When And Where To Watch - NDTV Sports - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- ABC admits video of Australian soldiers firing from helicopter in Afghanistan was incorrectly edited - The Guardian - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
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- The Observer view on Afghanistan: Britain and the US are complicit in the Talibans oppression of women - The Guardian - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
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- Everything To Know About Taliban's New "Vice And Virtue" Law In Afghanistan - NDTV - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
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- Aline Jalliet, author: 'In Afghanistan, the female voice itself becomes an act of dissent' - Le Monde - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
- Analysis | Trump appears to have misled Gold Star families on troop deaths in Afghanistan - The Washington Post - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
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- House Republicans subpoena Secretary Blinken for testimony on US withdrawal from Afghanistan - The Associated Press - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
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- Heres how we can help oppressed women and girls in Afghanistan | Letters - The Guardian - September 8th, 2024 [September 8th, 2024]
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- Afghanistan: Meet the midwife who stayed - UN News - August 25th, 2024 [August 25th, 2024]
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- Afghanistan: Three years of Taliban rule and international inaction have left Afghan community with little hope - Amnesty International - August 16th, 2024 [August 16th, 2024]
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- Taliban celebrates three years since returning to power in Afghanistan - FRANCE 24 English - August 16th, 2024 [August 16th, 2024]
- UNGA Side Event Ensuring Aid Effectiveness Amidst Afghanistan's Growing Food Insecurity - Princeton School of Public and International Affairs - August 16th, 2024 [August 16th, 2024]
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- Afghanistan: 20 years of steady education progress almost wiped out - UN News - August 16th, 2024 [August 16th, 2024]
- Afghanistan: Need for an urgent rethink of international response to the human rights crisis - World Organisation Against Torture - August 16th, 2024 [August 16th, 2024]
- I was imprisoned and tortured by the Taliban for protesting gender apartheid in Afghanistan - Atlantic Council - August 16th, 2024 [August 16th, 2024]
- Local Afghans reflect back on the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan three years ago - WBUR News - August 16th, 2024 [August 16th, 2024]
- Radical Taliban observe third year of ruling Afghanistan - Voice of America - VOA News - August 16th, 2024 [August 16th, 2024]