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Frank Bruni, a contributing Opinion writer, hosted an online conversation with Ann Coulter, who writes the Substack newsletter Unsafe, and Stuart Stevens, a former Republican political consultant, to discuss their expectations for the first Republican debate and the future of American politics.

Frank Bruni: Stuart, Ive done many of these political round tables, but never one at a juncture this titanically and transcendentally bizarre. The first Republican debate of the presidential election season is tonight, the party front-runner is absent, and hes running, oh, infinity points ahead of his Republican rivals despite two impeachments, 91 felony counts and unquantifiable wretchedness. Color me morose.

But also, illuminate me: Given Donald Trumps lead and its durability, does this debate matter, and how? Is there an argument that it could change the trajectory of this contest?

Stuart Stevens: If a candidate enters the debate with a strategy of taking out another candidate, it can change a trajectory. In the 2012 primary, Mitt Romney did this to Rick Perry in their first debate and again in a subsequent debate to Newt Gingrich. (I was the campaign strategist for that Romney campaign.) But you must go into a debate with the attitude one of us will walk off this stage alive. I dont think anyone has the nerve to do that.

Ann Coulter: I think this is Ron DeSantiss to lose. If hed just ignore the media and be the nerd that he is, hell do great.

Bruni: Stuart, do you agree that DeSantis has an underappreciated strength and that theres really a path for him to this nomination? And other than DeSantis, is there anyone on that stage tonight who could have a breakout moment and matter in this nomination contest?

Stevens: DeSantis is Jeb Bush without the charm. He is a small man running for a big job and looking smaller every day. If I were advising Tim Scott or another candidate, Id advise them to use the debate to attack DeSantis and blow him up. This is a man who lost a debate to Charlie Crist.

Coulter: Im sorry, but this just shows that you have zero understanding of the country, much less the party. Also, famous last words, but: I dont think Trump will be the nominee, but youd really do the country a solid if you could get Democrats to stop indicting him.

Bruni: Ann, in just a few sentences, why wont Trump be the nominee? Thats a renegade perspective. (Or, given recent Republican political history, should I say maverick?) Convince me.

Coulter: Trump can barely speak English. Hes a gigantic baby. The only reason he crushed in 2016 is because of immigration the wall, deport illegal immigrants, the travel ban (which imposed limits on travel from several predominantly Muslim countries). That is DeSantis this time without the total lack of interest in carrying it out.

Bruni: OK, but before we move on, is there anyone else in this debate who could break out and matter?

Coulter: No.

Bruni: Stuart, do you too believe Trump will not or might not get the nomination, as Ann does?

Stevens: Trump is what the Republican Party wants to be. Hes a white grievance candidate in a party that is over 80 percent white and has embraced its victimhood. Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson are alternatives, but there isnt a winning market for an anti-Trump message. Trump will be the nominee.

Coulter: I think youre both more focused on personalities and whiteness than the voters are. Its issues. And on the issues, Christie is totally out of step with the G.O.P. and Id say the country. He weeps about Ukrainians killed and raped by Russians, but doesnt seem to give two figs about Americans killed and raped by illegal immigrants in our country.

Bruni: Fair point about personalities, Ann, so lets indeed turn to issues and larger dynamics. Youve identified Ukraine as an issue getting too much attention. What else is getting lots of attention but largely irrelevant to this races outcome, and whats hugely relevant and being overlooked?

Stevens: It is actually all about race. Eighty-five percent of the Trump coalition in 2020 was white non-Hispanic in a country that is about 60 percent non-Hispanic white, and less since weve been chatting. The efforts in 2020 to deny votes was focused in places like Atlanta and Philadelphia. Why? Thats where a lot of Black people voted.

Coulter: So you think the G.O.P. is racist. Wow, never heard that before.

Stevens: In 1956, Eisenhower got about 39 percent of the Black vote. In 2020 Trump got 8 percent. A majority of Americans 15 years and younger are nonwhite or Hispanic white. This is what terrifies Republicans.

Coulter: This is just your excuse for your candidate losing a winnable election in 2012.

Bruni: You and Stuart are both hugely down on Trump as a human and as a candidate. Do you think he loses to Biden despite Bidens age and low approval ratings, or is this a jump ball if Trump gets the nomination?

Coulter: If Trump gets the nomination, I say he will lose. I know it, you know it, the American people know it (to paraphrase Bob Dole).

Stevens: Trump could win. In 2020, he lost by a combined 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin. Otherwise, he would still be president. Biden needs to win by 4.5 percent to carry the Electoral College. So it is inevitable it will be close.

Coulter: Nah. OK, maybe. I think Trump loses, but who knows? Hes not the Trump he was in 2016 its the same old thing over and over and over again. Shifty Schiff, perfect phone call, we won BIG, strong, strongly, strong zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

Bruni: Theres sustained chatter that someone significant Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin, Georgia governor Brian Kemp could join and upend the Republican field at a late moment, presented as a savior. Do you foresee that? How would it play out?

Stevens: There is this need among some in the donor Republican class and the National Review types that the Republican Party can revert to being a normal party. Thats insane. Take Glenn Youngkin. He endorsed Kari Lake for her Arizona gubernatorial run. Youngkin didnt change her; she changed him.

Coulter: I hope it doesnt come to that because DeSantis is head and shoulders above every other G.O.P. presidential candidate (or politician) on the three most important issues: immigration, crime and the Covid response. Unless the prime minister of Sweden is running in this race, no one beats DeSantis on the Covid response. Thats the 3 a.m. phone call every state and world leader faced the exact same unseen-before virus. Only those two got it exactly right.

Bruni: Ann, I have to ask you this simply because your pom-poms for DeSantis are so large and exuberantly shaken. How are you comfortable with how negative, vengeful, naming of enemies, slaying of enemies his whole shtick and strategy are? Dear God, you are the biggest Reagan lover I know, and theres no Its Morning Again in America from the Florida governor. Its the darkest night, all the time.

Coulter: So glad you asked that. As I describe in my book In Trump We Trust about the greatest presidential campaign in history (followed by the most disappointing, wasted presidency in history) this Im optimistic! talking point that campaign consultants feed their candidates is absurd. Ronald Reagan was not optimistic in 1980 it was only after four years in office that it was Morning in America. He was not positive or optimistic in 1980 at all.

Its nauseating to see candidates try to pull off the Im optimistic nonsense which I promise you they will in the debate, especially Tim Scott.

Bruni: Well, Im not optimistic, for what thats worth.

Coulter: Yes, Frank youre like most voters! Thats why the Im optimistic idiocy falls so flat.

Stevens: Republican donors looked at a model for Republican success as a big-state governor: Reagan, George W. Bush and Romney won the nomination. But all of those candidates were optimistic, expansive candidates. DeSantis is an angry little man who cant articulate why he wants to be president. He got in a fight with the Happiness Company, Disney, and lost. He created a private police force at a cost of over $1 million to go after voter fraud in his own state, which he had claimed had a perfect election. They arrested 20 people and convicted just one.

Bruni: I still prefer candidates who, I dont know, tell us to try to find the good in, and common cause with, one another rather than identify whom to hate and how much. Im old-fashioned that way. To return to the debate: Is there any chance Trump is hurt by his decision to skip it? Or is he showing considerable smarts? By choosing tomorrow to turn himself in in Georgia, he will compete with and shorten the medias post-mortems on the debate. He will, in his signature manner, yank the spotlight back toward himself!

Coulter: The only reason Trump will stay in the news is that the media keep him there. The weird obsession liberals have with Trump is driving normal people away from the news. Even I, MSNBCs most loyal viewer, cannot watch it anymore. The same words, same arguments, same info, same topics for over two years now! We almost lost our democracy!

Trump is a bore. Please stop covering him.

Bruni: Lets do a lightning round. Fast and quick answers. If something happened soon and Biden couldnt or didnt run, which nationally known Democrat would be the partys fiercest presidential candidate, assuming that candidate had just enough runway to take off, and in a few phrases or one sentence, why?

Stevens: Gavin Newsom. Hes a skilled politician who can build the coalition it takes to win. Its not a bad exercise to ask, Could this candidate win X state as governor? Newsom is someone you could see as governor of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Ohio.

Coulter: No one the Democrats would ever nominate for example, Connecticut governor Ned Lamont, Colorado governor Jared Polis, possibly Ohio senator Sherrod Brown.

Bruni: Why?

Coulter: Because theyre all white men.

Bruni: Is the widespread belief that Kamala Harris negatively impacts Bidens prospects for re-election overstated or understated?

Stevens: Overstated. Has anybody actually looked at her record as a candidate? Shes won big, tough races. Until her presidential bid, she never lost.

Coulter: Understated. I heard a discussion on MSNBC yesterday about how shes fantastic one-on-one, a laugh riot, a charm offensive. That just doesnt come out when shes in front of a crowd, you see.

The last person they tried that with was Al Gore, who apparently reached comedic highs alone in his bathtub.

Bruni: Should Clarence Thomas be impeached?

Stevens: Is that a rhetorical question? A Supreme Court justice who acts like an oligarchs girlfriend, flying around on special vacations. Of course. Hes a disgrace.

Coulter: No, he should be made czar of our country. For decades, liberals were mostly OK with the Supreme Court as it was inventing rights like abortion or Miranda or throwing out the death penalty. But now, suddenly theres a major ethics issue about a justice whos gotten the lefts goat since he was nominated.

Thomas votes and writes opinions exactly as his judicial philosophy would predict. The idea that he ruled a certain way because someone took him on a fishing trip is ludicrous.

Bruni: Lastly, rank these American institutions in the order of influence they might have over the final results the winner of the 2024 presidential contest: Fox News, Facebook, The New York Times, the Supreme Court.

Coulter: Fox News: almost zero, unless the nominee is Trump then you can blame Fox. Facebook: 2 percent. New York Times: 8 percent, maybe 10. The political economist Tim Groseclose wrote a book (Left Turn: How Liberal Media Bias Distorts the American Mind) estimating the influence of the media on elections and concluded it was about 8 percent. But that was roughly 10 years ago. Its probably more now. The Supreme Court: hopefully zero.

Stevens: The Supreme Court by far. In the history of the country, only five justices were confirmed by senators representing a minority of the countrys population. All five are on the court today. It is completely out of step with the majority of the country, and the results played out in 2022.

I dont think Fox created the Republican Party; the Republican Party created Fox. For the most part, Fox didnt support John McCain, didnt support Romney, didnt support Trump in his nomination campaign. They couldnt affect the outcomes with their own base.

Facebook has the potential to impact the race, as it did in 2016.

I dont think The Times has played a major role in a presidential campaign, and I think thats a good thing its not their job to play a major role.

Bruni: Thank you both for your time, your insights and your energy.

Coulter: Thank you, Frank. Thank you, Stuart.

Stevens: Thanks, all!

Source photograph by Mark Wallheiser/Getty.

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Frank Bruni is a professor of journalism and public policy at Duke University, the author of the book The Beauty of Dusk and a contributing Opinion writer. He writes a weekly email newsletter. Instagram @FrankBruni Facebook

Ann Coulter is the author of the Substack newsletter Unsafe.

Stuart Stevens (@stuartpstevens), a former Republican political consultant who has worked on many campaigns for federal and state office, including the presidential campaigns of Mitt Romney and George W. Bush, is the author of the forthcoming book The Conspiracy to End America: Five Ways My Old Party Is Driving Our Democracy to Autocracy.

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Opinion | 'I Don't Think Trump Will Be the Nominee': Three Writers ... - The New York Times