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How did a small group of Islamic students go from local vigilantes to one of the most infamous and enigmatic forces in the world? The Taliban is a name that has haunted the American imagination since 2001. The scenes of the group's brutality repeatedly played in the Western media, while true, perhaps obscure our ability to see the complex origins of the Taliban and how they impact the lives of Afghans. It's a shadow that reaches across the vast ancient Afghan homeland, the reputation of the modern state, and throughout global politics. At the end of the US war in Afghanistan we go back to the end of the Soviet Occupation and the start of the Afghan civil war to look at the rise of the Taliban. Their story concludes Throughline's two-episode investigation on the past, present, and future of the country that was once called "the center of the world.

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Afghanistan: The Rise of the Taliban : Throughline - NPR

Then-President George W. Bush speaks aboard the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln off the California coast in 2003. (J. Scott Applewhite / AP Photo)

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The American national security establishment has little aptitude for winning wars, but it is very good at defending its political power. The swift collapse of the Afghan government in August, with the leaders like Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani fleeing as its army surrendered to the Taliban, should have been an occasion for soul-searching among Americans leaders. After all, building a viable, non-Taliban government in Afghanistan has been a project carried out by four presidencies over nearly 20 years, at the cost of more than $2 trillion and nearly 2,500 soldiers. The number of Afghans who died in the war of the last two decades is difficult to establish with certainty, but best estimates are in the neighborhood of 240,000with perhaps 70,000 of those civilians.

By any measure, the effort to create a viable Afghan state was a major political project, supported not just by a bipartisan political consensus but also numerous NGOs and, intermittently, aided by American allies. Yet the Afghan government was revealed in the end to be a Potemkin regime, one that fell apart almost as fast as a house of cards encountering a gust of wind.

You would think that so massive a failureone that implicated so many leaders and institutionsmight lead to some reflection on all that had gone wrong. But such a level of mature introspection isnt common to the national security establishment. This clubby collection of military and civilian policy-makers, think tank wonks, and upscale journalists is sometimes called the Blob. (The term was popularized, if not coined, by Ben Rhodes, an adviser to Barack Obama). Its an apt metaphor; like the fabled movie monster, the foreign policy Blob may look amorphousbut still always oozes in the same general direction.

The Blob quickly decided that the end of the Afghan debacle, rather than a moment for self-reflection, presented an ideal opportunity to slime Joe Biden. The quickly formulated Blob consensus went something like this: The mission in Afghanistan didnt fail. The situation on the ground had stabilized with the Afghan government supported at a manageable cost by a few thousand US troops. Afghanistan was well on its way to becoming a viable long-term ally like Japan, South Korea, or Germany. Biden, hypnotized by the slogan end the forever wars, was guilty of a premature withdrawal. MORE FROM Jeet Heer

To make sure Biden received the requisite lashing, the media dug up all the ghouls who launched Afghanistan and earlier wars: John Bolton, Paul Wolfowitz, Tony Blaireven the prince of the undead himself, Henry Kissinger. Variations of this critique were made by everyone from Ryan C. Crocker, ambassador to Afghanistan under Obama, to Council on Foreign Relations President Richard N. Haass. Writing in The New York Times, Crocker argued, Bidens decision to withdraw all U.S. forces destroyed an affordable status quo that could have lasted indefinitely at a minimum cost in blood and treasure. Haass tweeted, The alternative to withdrawal from Afghanistan was not endless occupation but open-ended presence. Occupation is imposed, presence invited. Unless you think we are occupying Japan, Germany, & South Korea. And yes, withdrawal was the problem.

These arguments are so flimsy as to barely need refutation. Theres simply no rational comparison between the American presence, however contested by some locals, in Japan, Germany, and South Korea and two decades of ferocious blood-letting in Afghanistan. The minimum cost of Afghanistan is true only if you ignore both that American casualties over the last year are down because of Donald Trumps agreement with the Taliban to withdraw US troopsand that Afghan casualties remain numbingly high. As Joe Biden rightly said in an August 31 address, Theres nothing low grade or low risk or low cost about any war.

What Biden could have added is that his critics are willfully dishonest about the history of the warand the nature of the status quo before the collapse. One of the very best guides to that history is the blockbuster Afghanistan Papers report that Craig Whitlock released in The Washington Post in 2019 (now available in expanded form as a book). Current Issue

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Based on an internal autopsy of the Afghan mission commissioned by the Pentagon titled Lessons Learned, The Afghanistan Papers make clear that the war was lost from almost the very startand that the Afghanistan war was unwinnable because the United States lacked the knowledge and capability to build a legitimate or even viable government.

Instead, administration after administration kept kicking the can down the road by pretending the facade of a viable regime was the real thing. As MSNBC host Chris Hayes rightly observed, the philosophy behind Americas nation-building effort was fake it till you make it.

In 2015, Army Gen. Douglas Lute, who served as Afghan war czar under both George W. Bush and Barack Obama, told government interviewers, We were devoid of a fundamental understanding of Afghanistanwe didnt know what we were doing. He added, What are we trying to do here? We didnt have the foggiest notion of what we were undertaking.

The Afghanistan Papers paint a grim picture of a mission lacking in any clear focus leading to the creation of a make-believe government, a phantom local army, and a status quo maintained by massive American-directed killing. As Whitlock notes:

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In the Lessons Learned interviews, however, U.S. military trainers described the Afghan security forces as incompetent, unmotivated and rife with deserters. They also accused Afghan commanders of pocketing salariespaid by U.S. taxpayersfor tens of thousands of ghost soldiers. Whitlock adds, None expressed confidence that the Afghan army and police could ever fend off, much less defeat, the Taliban on their own. More than 60,000 members of Afghan security forces have been killed, a casualty rate that U.S. commanders have called unsustainable.

Reading The Afghanistan Papers illuminates the rapid collapse of the American mission: It fell apart because it was always one big lie. The title of the original Pentagon report now takes an ironic air: Lessons Learned. The cynical and calculated freakout over Bidens wise decision to withdraw makes clear that the Blob will never learn any lessons.

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Americas Afghanistan Amnesia - The Nation

Seventeen years after the Bonn Agreement under which a new interim administration was established, .

. Unemployment rates are high. The countrys rapid population growth places pressure on service delivery and .

Declines in grant assistance accompanying the drawdown of international security forces has weakened demand and led to a broad and sustained economic slowdown.

While much progress has been made, institutions do not adequately mediate competition and conflict over resources, protect property rights, or keep citizens safe.

that are difficult to generate.

In this context, how can economic development be achieved in Afghanistan?

The Afghanistan to 2030 report highlights a set of priorities for economic development in Afghanistan, taking ongoing fragility as a given.

The report answers the following questions:

The report finds that .

This would require policy measures to support households and businesses deal with the risks of insecurity. It would also require a balanced growth strategy, involving increased public spending on human capital, improved agricultural productivity, and the mobilization of new investment in the extractives sector.

The report draws on several background papers that are available below.

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Afghanistan to 2030: Priorities for Economic Development ...

Kabul,2 September 2020 The Steering Committee of the Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund (ARTF), a multi-donor trust fund administered by the World Bank, today held its annual meeting virtually. The Committee is co-chaired by H.E. Abdul Hadi Arghandiwal, Acting Minister of Finance, and Henry Kerali, World Bank Country Director for Afghanistan.

Ambassadors and representatives fromdonor countries and organizations discussed the role of the ARTF in moving forward the Afghan Governments development agenda. They also reviewed the progress of the trust funds financing strategy over the 13971399 fiscal years as well as the Partnership Framework and Financing Program (PFFP) and discussed future financing and programing beyond 1399. ARTF funds a large part of Afghanistans national budget and the implementation of Afghanistans National Development Strategy. Through the ARTF, the Government works with international partners to reduce poverty, deliver essential services, sustain civilian budget operating costs, and implement key reform efforts.

We are incredibly grateful for ARTF recent donations in response to COVID-19. We especially appreciate your generosity, efforts, and the commitment youve expressed to our community during these uncertain and challenging times, this year, our gratitude goes even deeper. Your support to fight COVID-19 helps us lead the way in responding to this unprecedented global health crisis. We are honored by World Bank that has reached out to us in so many ways through some major programs such as, REACH, ERHSP and EATS ). said Abdul Hadi Arghandiwal, Acting Minister of Finance.

As Afghanistan is going through a difficult political and economic situation imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic, ARTF provides significant support to the Government to maintain service delivery and pursue its development goals,said Henry Kerali, World Bank Country Director for Afghanistan. ARTF is the largest and longest-standing single country multi-donor trust fund managed by the World Bank on behalf international partners to ensure continued support to the people and Government of Afghanistan.

The Steering Committee discussed ARTF priorities after 2020 under the Partnership Framework Financing Program and endorsed annual updates to the PFFP. Members committed to continuing their strong partnership under the ARTF to promote good value for money in the delivery of ARTF-financed programs, strength administrative capacity and implement anti-corruption measures.

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About the ARTF: The Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund Steering (ARTF) is a multi-donor trust fund administered by the World Bank on behalf of 34 current and past donors. It provides on-budget financing to support the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistans development and reform priorities, and it is the single largest source of such funding to the Government.

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Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund (ARTF) Steering ...

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) Reminiscent of their previous harsh rule in the 1990s, the Taliban have already begun to wipe out some of Afghanistans gains of 20 years. Theyve denied women a seat at the Cabinet, beaten journalists into silence and enforced their severe interpretation of Islam, on occasion violently.

And yet there seems little the international community can do about it.

The world will need to engage with the Taliban to some extent, despite disappointment with the new all-Taliban Cabinet that defied earlier promises it would be inclusive.

The U.S. needs Taliban cooperation to evacuate the remaining Americans and to fight an increasingly brazen Islamic State affiliate, considered the greatest terrorist threat against America emanating from Afghanistan. In recent weeks, the IS flag has been seen flying from several districts of the eastern province of Nangarhar.

Meanwhile, a humanitarian disaster that threatens millions of Afghans has the world scrambling to respond. On most days, Qatar is flying in food and medical supplies. Pakistan has announced it is sending planeloads of aid to Afghanistan.

The United Nations has launched a $606 million emergency appeal to help nearly 11 million people in Afghanistan, or nearly one-third of the population. They are deemed to be in desperate need as a result of drought, displacement, chronic poverty and a sharp increase in hostilities as the Taliban swept to power last month.

Even before the Taliban takeover, nearly half the population needed some humanitarian aid and more than half of all children under the age of 5 were expected to face acute malnutrition, according to the U.N. report that accompanied the emergency appeal.

The economic challenges are steep. Most Afghans live on less than $2 a day, 80% of the countrys budget was covered by international funds over the past 20 years, and no industries of note have emerged to provide employment to a mostly young population. Tens of thousands of Afghans have fled, most of them members of the educated elite.

Yet despite such dependence on international support, the Taliban sent a message with their Cabinet lineup this week that they intend to run Afghanistan on their terms. They named a government filled with veterans of their 1990s rule and the subsequent insurgency against a U.S.-led military coalition. Their Cabinet includes former Guantanamo Bay prisoners and perhaps one of the most eyebrow-raising appointments Sirajuddin Haqqani, wanted by the FBI for questioning in several deadly attacks, as interior minister.

They also forbade protests without prior authorization in a new attempt to silence dissent and reportedly banned some womens sports.

The Taliban would seem to want it both ways to run Afghanistan according to their harsh interpretation of Islam, while maintaining some level of cooperation with the international community.

In portraying their Cabinet as a caretaker administration, the Taliban signaled there is still room for change and that other nations can do business with this government without recognizing it first.

In a three-page policy statement that accompanied the formation of the government, the Taliban also addressed concerns of the region and the larger world. They promised Afghanistan would not be used as a staging arena for attacks on other countries. They said they would not interfere in the affairs of other nations and demanded the same in return. And they pledged to allow Afghans to leave the country, provided they have the proper travel documents.

I imagine the use of the term caretaker is very strategic, said Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia Program at the U.S.-based Wilson Center. The idea is to create an impression that at some point the government will change and become more inclusive, and therefore more amenable to the West.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, directing his words at the Taliban, warned Wednesday that any legitimacy, any support will have to be earned. He spoke after hosting a virtual meeting of ministers from 22 countries as well as NATO and the European Union.

Its unlikely, however, that the Talibans top leadership will change anytime soon. Its tens of thousands of fighters will have to be brought under a single Afghan National Security Force banner, even integrating some of the previous military personnel into the mix. But that wont happen without the likes of Haqqani, the new interior minister, or the Taliban founders son Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, the defense minister.

In time, economic necessity might prompt the Taliban to loosen their grip and allow women and non-Taliban into the administration, but likely in secondary roles. For women, this might mean work in the traditional fields of health and education.

The Taliban need to open the door and trust non-Taliban in governance. They need to bring technocrats ASAP to get the economy going, said Torek Farhadi, an adviser to previous Afghan governments.

The Taliban face a number of challenges to their rule.

Prolonged economic stagnation could lead to protests by the countrys growing poor who might eventually decide they have little to lose by openly challenging the hard-line rulers. Afghans of 2021 are not the compliant population of 1996 a time when the Taliban had little trouble imposing their uncompromising edicts.

There are also debates and differences within the movement and no one among the Taliban has absolute authority, unlike in the past, under the late founder Mullah Mohammad Omar who had the final word.

The West and Afghanistans regional neighbors hope to use money and recognition as leverage to influence the Taliban.

Wednesdays ministerial meeting signaled that the U.S. and Europe will be watching the Taliban closely.

Kugelman, from the Wilson Center, said others, such as Pakistan, China and Russia, might eventually set a lower bar for formal recognition of a new Afghan government. China has already promised to stay engaged and mine Afghanistans vast mineral resources while helping rebuild the war-ravaged nation. Still, Kugelman said, the Taliban badly need access to billions of dollars in foreign reserves that the West has denied them.

The announcement of its very non-inclusive Cabinet will put those funds further out of reach, he said.

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Gannon has covered Afghanistan for The Associated Press since 1988. She is the APs news director for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Follow her on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/kathygannon.

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Analysis: Taliban hard-line path worsens Afghanistan dilemma - Associated Press