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Reports from Afghanistan now refer to a resurgent Talibanas the violent group has now taken more territory thanitever had sinceit waspushed out of power in 2001. While the situation on the ground israpidly shifting, there is no doubt that the Taliban have the upper hand and mean to keep it that way.Alongside isreportageof what everyone knew allalong theTalibanhasntchanged in the slightest. The old rules against music, shaving beards and girlseducation are back.Andyet another wave of refugeesis onthe move.

In Islamabad, Pakistans National Security AdvisorMoeed Yusuf warneda Senate committee that thesituationin Afghanistan was out of Pakistans control. That was of course an inadvertent admission that the Taliban had been, in fact, always under Pakistani control, but the NSA seemed to be trying to make a public case that Pakistan was in danger. It is, but for reasons that the security establishment may be blind to, while it actuallycheersthe victory that it has sought for more than three decades. No one is fooled, except the Pakistani establishment itself. Despite extensive planning and frenetic diplomacy, trouble is coming to Pakistan.

Also read: Imran Khan should know who really messed up in Afghanistan

As the Taliban rampagesacross Afghanistan, another flow of refugees has begun toTurkey,US,UK, and closer home toneighbouringcountries. TinyTajikistansays its ready to take in 100,000 refugees, whileIranis seeing some 10,000 arriving every day through well-known smuggling routesviaPakistan. Oddly, there is no indication of much movement into Pakistani territory.Datacollected by migration mapping agencies indicate that while some 81 per cent plan to stay in Iran and others are aiming for Europe, just two per cent plan togo toPakistan. The reasons for this indicate a carefully planned policy.

First, Pakistan can police its 267-km border better than it pretends to, with88 per centof its border with Afghanistan double fencedand accompanied byditches, bunds and sensors. Its a one-way system that allows the Taliban to go as they please, but no one elsecomesin. Second, Pakistaniparliamentariansnote that the Taliban are roaming freely in Quetta and adjoining areas. Any fleeing Afghan coming to these areasislikely to be sent back as a Taliban recruit faster than the blink of an eye. When asked why these insurgents were not removed,PakistanArmy chief GeneralQamar JavedBajwaand ISI chiefLt General Faiz Hameedwarnedlawmakers that this would result in a blowback on Pakistan.Thats strangefor a countrythathas no compunctions in removing, killing or threatening its Pashtun and Baloch population, not to mention disobedient political parties.

Third, is the fact that much of the territory opposite Pakistan have already been Taliban-controlled for years. Main border crossings like Spin Boldak have recently fallen, even as the Pakistan Air Force threatened airstrikesif the Afghan Army sought to wrench it back. The strategy is aimed at ensuring that the Taliban police the border areas, thus preventing any huge ingress of desperate people.PakistanForeign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshihas declared thatthe countrywill not take in any more refugees. But if matters worsen, as they surely will, Pakistan has the option ofdealing with700,000refugees expected to arrive orshelterthem. The key point is whether the Taliban can take control over all key border crossings, as well as the dozens of mountain trails that cross into the tribal areas.

Also read: India right to wait till Taliban comes in full view. No need to rush into an Afghan strategy

Before blaming the Taliban for being a bunch of rabble-rousers, remember that the fundamentalist ideologythatsustains their ranks, or the mujahideen before them, was part of a deliberate ISI policy to funnel US funds to the most extremistgroups tostem the tide of rising Pashtun nationalism that had erupted even before the USSR walked in.

Afghans were never fundamentalist; they had it thrust upon them. Now it seems the Taliban are reiterating that with a vengeance.Reportafterreporttalk of the Taliban preventing girls from attending schools, barring the wearing of red and green clothes (the colour of the Afghan flag), shaving and listening to songs. This lunacy haslargelyemanated from Pakistans madrassas, with major madrassaleadersdeclaring their pride at Taliban alumni, and seeing their victories as vindication of this revanchist ideology. The end result is thatgroups like the extremeRight-wing Tehreek-e-Labbaik(TLP)do well in provincial elections, and a former office-bearer of theTehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)has been nominated by Islamabad for the ulema seat in PoK elections.Parliamentis no exception, with passionate statements declaring the Talibanasa protective barrier for Pakistan. Islamist parties and even common people are united in their admiration of Taliban victory against a superpower.

This is ideology coming home to roost; and like all extreme ideologies, it could swallow up its creators.

Also read: Team Bajwa now betting on UK to promote Taliban to get to US indirectly

While the Talibanison a winning spree, itsnot going to be a walkover. Former warlords and the Opposition in Kabul arebanding togetherfor their own survival. Within all this, outside powers are fishing for newproxiesamong the second generation leaders like the son of Ahmed Shah Masood, or even Uzbek warlordAbdul RashidDostum.

Despite the Taliban being sent around to major world capitals such as Beijing, Moscow, and Teheran, few want a Taliban-dominated government in place, despite the best efforts of a sophisticated PR machine that nearly sold the argument of a changed Taliban, particularly to US academics. Such a civil war scenario, where each will backtheirown grouping is Islamabads worst nightmare. There is an even worse scenario. That once within sight of power, the Taliban itself will splinter along its weakest points. Success in insurgency has its own price when each leader wants a share of the pie. Ironically, chances of a civil war are the highest if Kabul falls, with warlords like Atta Mohammad Noor likely to try and carve out their own territory.

The only ones who will welcome civil war are the terrorists. As a recentUN Report observed, theal-Qaeda is still around, aligned with the Taliban through the offices of the Haqqani network in a complex network of intermarriage and operations. This deadly combinationof terrorist groupsis fighting and sharing victories with the Taliban and are therefore largely on the right side of Pakistans intelligence agencies. But this is an uncivil war. With enough money and spunk, any or all of these can be bought by various actors, orthey canjust decide to do their own thing. Its already apparent in the tribal areas wheretwo Pakistani soldierswere recently killed and several wounded incross-border attacks. A flareup of unrest in these areas, bracketed with wounded Pashtun pride, could mean Waziristan redux, or return of the war that sucked in thousands of Pakistani troops in intermittent operations between 2003 and 2014. In that case, Pakistan will find that ithasleft itself wide open to total chaos. Allthe black ravens it has let loose,willfinally come home to roost.Pakistans game of thrones in Afghanistan has gone on for much too long. The audience is simply tired of it.

The author is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. Views are personal.

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Trouble is coming to Pakistan. No matter its double fence on Afghanistan border - ThePrint

Judy Woodruff:

In just over one month, according to President Biden, the U.S. will have completed its withdrawal from Afghanistan, after 20 years.

But for those two decades, Afghanistan's neighbor to the east, Pakistan, has been a key player in the regional dynamics, and stands long accused by the United States and Afghanistan of supporting Taliban insurgents.

In a moment, I will have an interview with Pakistan's prime minister, Imran Khan, but, first, some background on him and the fraught relationship with the U.S. and Afghanistan.

From the 1970s to the early 90's, Imran Khan was a professional athlete, a cricket star, guiding Pakistan's national team to victory. Now, as Pakistan's prime minister, he's leading his country at a time of regional tumult.

As the U.S. leaves Afghanistan, the Taliban is making swift territorial advances. When the Taliban recently took over a key Afghan-Pakistani border crossing, residents on the Pakistani side seemed to celebrate, waving Taliban flags and honking horns.

Recently, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani made a longstanding accusation: Pakistan provides insurgents safe haven.

ASHRAF GHANI, President of Afghanistan: Intelligence estimates indicate the influx of over 10,000 jihadi fighters from Pakistan and other places in the last month, as well as support from their affiliates in the transnational terrorist organization.

Read the original here:
U.S. 'really messed it up' in Afghanistan, Pakistan PM says - PBS NewsHour

The U.S. military is physically withdrawing from Afghanistan, and Afghan nationals who aided the American military are trying to evacuate as the Taliban gains ground in remote areas. GBH News analyst Charlie Sennott called into Boston Public Radio on Monday from Kabul, Afghanistan, to give a sense of the situation on the ground.

Sennott, formerly a Middle East bureau chief for the Boston Globe covering the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, said the nation is in a moment of "tremendous uncertainty."

"You can really feel sort of the barometric pressure dropping with the U.S. pullout underway," said Sennott. "The situation on the ground is, you don't see U.S. military on the streets the way you used to see them."

"This place has always lived with violence, it's always lived with a great deal of nerve-wracking fighting going on with the Taliban for many many years," he said, but added that this moment, as the Taliban surges in outer provinces, feels unique in just how much is changing quickly.

Sennott, who was last in the country in 2016, said that while the Taliban is gaining ground outside the cities, it still feels relatively normal in metropolitan areas.

"[There's a] really strange mix of inspiring and hopeful commitment and endurance to sort of daily life going on: the vegetable markets are there, you see the butchers on the street, you see people out and about and shopping, and then ... this feeling of tremendous uncertainty with a total lack of U.S. military presence, and many questions about what that's going to mean in the weeks and months ahead," said Sennott.

Human rights groups and monitors in Afghanistan are reporting a rise in civilian casualties and executions, with the Taliban responsible for the bulk of the offenses. Sennott said his reporting so far reflects a sense that "the Taliban is going to be a part of the future of Afghanistan."

"I spoke today to a young man who was very openly in favor of the Taliban and he felt like the Taliban has changed," said Sennott, noting that footage coming out of Afghanistan showing beheadings and the slaughter of surrendering troops, shows "completely the opposite."

"I think the young people who are educated here, like the young man I spoke with, he said to me that yes he supports some of the aspects of the Taliban a sense of traditional Islam, of living by Sharia but that he would never tolerate girls not to be educated or women not to be in the workplace, and that no one his age would support that."

75% of Afghans are 25 years old or younger, said Sennott.

While the Taliban has gained ground in remote areas of the country, Sennott said he doesn't believe "they are going to come into power and surge into taking over Kabul any time soon."

"The clearest assessment I have is a shift in strategy, that the Afghan national army and security forces here have decided they're going to concentrate on the urban centers, and that's going to mean letting go of some of the outposts in more distant regions," he said.

Charlie Sennott is a GBH News analyst and founder and CEO of the Groundtruth Project.

See more here:
On The Ground In Kabul: The 'Barometric Pressure Is Dropping' In Afghanistan As US Troops Withdraw - wgbh.org

Between 29 and 31 July alone, MSF treated 70 war-wounded patients. In total from 3 May until 31 July, we have treated 482 war-wounded people, nearly all (92 per cent) for injuries caused by shells and bullets, and around a quarter (26 per cent) aged under 18. The patients seen by MSF are just a fraction of the totalnumber injured by the violence.

The fighting exacerbates health needs beyond trauma care. Given the lack of well-functioning and affordable medical facilities in Helmand, people rely on the 300-bed Boost hospital, the only referral hospital in the province, for essential neonatal, paediatric, inpatient, intensive care, maternity, malnutrition, and surgical services among others.

Since May,however, MSF staff have witnessed an alarming increase in the severity of patients illnesses when they arrive at the hospital. People have described how, despite needing medical care, they have been forced to wait at home until the fighting subsides or to take dangerous alternate routes. With fighting taking place not far from Boost hospital, and people too afraid to leave their homes due to the violence, access to healthcare is dangerously limited.

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Intense fighting leads to severe trauma causalities in Lashkar Gah, Afghanistan | MSF - Mdecins Sans Frontires (MSF) International

ISLAMABAD:

When National Security Adviser (NSA) Dr Moeed Yusuf and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Director General Lt General Faiz Hameed arrived in Washington last week, there were no photo ops or any fanfare about their visit taking place at a critical juncture.

The NSA and the ISI chief met concerned officials during their stay in the US capital but the only statement was from the US NSA, Jake Sullivan, who tweeted after meeting Dr Moeed and Lt Gen Faiz.

But Dr Moeed was not bothered about it, insisting the PTI governments US policy is pragmatic and unapologetic, but not boastful and urged people not to look for big pictures and all-embracing headlines. He on Sunday said the focus of the visit was more on substance than optics.

Behind the scene there were indeed substantive discussions focused largely on the Afghan endgame and future of Pakistan-US ties, sources familiar with the development told The Express Tribune.

Read: 'US really messed it up in Afghanistan': PM Imran

According to the sources, the NSA and the ISI chief delivered a message to the US authorities, warning them not to abandon Afghanistan. The US was told that the complete detachment of the US from Afghanistan after their troops withdrawal would allow terrorist outfits such as Al Qaeda to regroup and eventually become a security threat not only to the region but also to Washington.

Pakistan wants the US to remain engaged with the Afghan situation in order to ensure that there is some political settlement after its withdrawal instead of civil war. Prime Minister Imran Khan also recently criticised the US approach and blamed Washington for the Afghan mess.

The worry in Pakistan is that the US may abandon Afghanistan altogether leaving regional countries to face the blowback of a potential civil war in Afghanistan. It is because of this reason that Pakistan has been working with regional countries including Russia and China to prevent the civil war in Afghanistan.

Both Russia and China are also critical of the US strategy on Afghanistan and publicly blamed Washington for leaving the neighbouring country in a total mess. But given the role of the US, Pakistan, Russia and China are still seeking to engage with the Biden administration.

For this purpose senior officials of Pakistan, China, Russia and the US are scheduled to meet in Doha on August 11. The so-called Extended Trioka will discuss the current situation in Afghanistan and discuss ways to seek a political settlement.

Read more: US lauds Pakistan's 'sincere' efforts for peace in Afghanistan

In Washington while the NSA and the ISI director general shared Pakistan's perspective, the US conveyed its expectations. Despite Pakistan's insistence on not having a similar influence over the Afghan Taliban, the US feels Pakistan can still play an important role.

However, Dr Moeed dismissed the perception that Pakistan has great influence over the Taliban. If that was the case, Pakistan would have at least persuaded the Taliban to force out the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) from Afghanistan.

Pakistan and China have been pushing the Afghan Taliban to cut ties with the TTP and East Turkestan Islamic Movement ((ETIM). The Taliban in general have made a commitment that they would not allow Afghan soil to be used against any other country.

But observers are skeptical as the recent United Nations Security Council (UNSC) report suggested that the Taliban still maintain contacts with al-Qaeda and other terrorist outfits.

Read the original:
Pakistan asks US not to abandon Afghanistan - The Express Tribune