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America won in Afghanistan years ago, but the analysts in think tanks, the press, and the intelligence agencies missed it. Sound confusing? Let me explain. The Afghan security forces and their leadership have always been the key to victory, and the winner of the war was decided when the U.S. and NATO decided to make a long-term investment in a professional security sectorthat happened in 2002 and 2003. But claiming an ultimate American or NATO victory has never been important to the war effort.

The Afghan people are the only ones that can assign victory or defeat to this war. They do so by sustaining human rights and democratic principles while constantly building a secure environment for education, healthcare, and other societal advances to occur. This is all enabled by the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF). The ANDSF is the foundation for a peaceful Afghanistanit always has been.

I saw another evergreen headline recently, celebrating the strength of the Taliban movement, and its ability to outlast a superpower in Afghanistan. This demonstrates clearly that the pundits never understood the mission in Afghanistan, and unfortunately that has not allowed American citizens, or Afghans, to fully understand it. This has never been about America or NATO versus the Taliban; its about the Afghan people versus those who commit violence and crime in their nation.

The war in Afghanistan was never Americas to win. It has always been the Afghan peoples victory to achieve. The analysts and critics of the war have been vainly trying to prove that America could never win the war in Afghanistan. The war in Afghanistan was technically won by the U.S. the moment it decided that building the Afghan security sector was the path to helping the Afghans achieve victory. The United States is the supporting actor in this war. The Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) are the lead actor and are the path to victory, if it can be found. Analysts need to focus on the Afghan and Taliban efforts to determine the ultimate winner.

When did I realize that the key to victory was the success of the ANDSF? In 2002, when the U.S. started its first formally named Security Sector Reform mission in Afghanistan beside the Interim Afghan government and empowered by the United Nations.

I recalled on my journey home from Afghanistan in 2003, the time a visiting Pakistani delegate in Kabul told my boss, dont waste your time building a large Afghan army, it wont matter. That 2003 Pakistani comment was the second time I realized the ANDSF was the path to victory for the Afghan people. In South Asia, whatever Pakistan suggests you do for Afghanistan should be seen as the opposite of sensible. The creation of and 19 years of mentoring and fighting beside the ANDSF has been the most essential act of the war for peace in Afghanistan.

In 2001 when the U.S. entered Afghanistan about six weeks after the September 11th terrorist attacks on Americans, the mission was to find and destroy Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and anyone that aided them. That goal was achieved quickly. Al Qaeda in Afghanistan was killed, hid, or ran towards other nations. The invasion and campaign against terrorists in Afghanistan clearly didnt stop terrorism worldwide, but it shut down AQ in Afghanistan as a headquarters.

But that wasnt the entire U.S. mission in Afghanistan. America had three major goals:

Headlines today seem to have added a 4th U.S. goal, Fighting the Taliban until the last Taliban member is dead. This was not and is not a U.S. goal. The 3rd American goal negated that idea from the start. The U.S. was clear they were there to help Afghans, to be able to help themselves to ward off the Taliban and any other anti-Government or anti-Afghan enemies. The main effort in Afghanistan from 2002 onwards was the 3rd US strategic goal.

I got to Afghanistan in 2002 and was on MG John R. Vines staff as an engineer. I sat in the operations meetings daily. Our mission at the 82nd Coalition Task Force was to hunt and kill terrorists and their allies. I flew around Eastern Afghanistan ensuring infrastructure was in place to support that mission for a few months. After we finished the airfield at FOB Salerno, I was picked to join MG Karl Eikenberry on the other U.S. mission, to help build the new Afghan National Army and other security organizations.

As I left MG Vines team, he gave me a handshake and friendly punch, and said you are now joining the main effort, Jason. Building the Afghan Army is how we end our fight.

I didnt fully appreciate his words. I was a lieutenant at the time, but I would soon figure out what the press and pundits and many military leaders never seemed to. But those confused military commanders luckily didnt write U.S. policy; the three major U.S. goals in Afghanistan remain unchanged today.

At MG Eikenberrys side for the next 10 months, we worked with the Afghan government to reform their entire security sector (military, police, courts etc.) and build the first corps-sized element of the Afghan Army (a division in U.S. terminology). MG John Vines would return shortly, replacing LTG Dan McNeill, as the senior commander in Afghanistan, and then he joined us in meetings with Afghan leaders as we built their security forces. A year later, when I left Afghanistan in 2003, I looked at the Afghan security sector that had been created, and it was pretty good for a one-year-old militarymuch better than the U.S. Army on its first birthday.

That 3rd part of the U.S. policy to help the Afghans to help themselves, became the main effort in 2002 and although most failed to notice it, that was the only part that mattered when you look forward to how the war will end.

The Afghan security forces, known today as the ANDSF have grown in capability and professionalism since the first battalion was created in 2002. They grew so large and capable that in 2014, NATO agreed with the Afghan government and determined the ANDSF were strong enough to take over the full leadership role of the fight against Afghanistans enemies in 2015.

Since 2015 began, the NATO mission, with America making up the bulk of the force, has switched to a supporting role while the Afghans themselves became the main effort. This is exactly in accordance with the original strategy for Afghanistan. If historians are looking for the moment when the U.S. goals were met, it will be this hand-off in the war. Until this moment, the Americans (and the NATO-plus coalition) on the ground had fought Afghanistans enemies, sometimes alone, but often beside their Afghan partners. These U.S. operations were meant to give the Afghans the precious time they needed to build their force up.

Today, the ANDSF is confident and highly capable, and they are responsible for over 90% of the ground attacks against the Taliban and the terrorists in Afghanistan. Their Air Force is the last force the U.S. helped to create, yet they are now flying the majority of the attack missions.

Historians can also mark in their notes the moment the Afghans, through their ANDSF champions, defeated the neo-Taliban movement, that returned shortly after the American/United Front forces ejected them in 2001. That moment was when the Taliban publicly admitted they would enter a peace process with the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. That was the moment the Taliban quietly admitted to themselves that they cannot defeat the ANDSF militarily, so they better try a diplomatic strategy.

Now that the U.S. goals have been met in Afghanistan, they have a decision to make. It is much like the decisions in the early 1990s when the U.S. partnered with Afghan Mujahedeen to drive out a violent regime. The U.S. faltered after helping to force out the Soviet-backed communist regime from Kabul. The U.S. decided to leave the region and decrease the funding to the Afghans before the nation was stabilized.

As the U.S. (and NATO) remove advisory and other forces, they must decide if they are going to continue to fund their ANDSF allies for the next few years at full strength so they can make sure the current peace process finds a durable peace. The risk of cutting all funding off quickly, is that the Taliban, supported by Pakistan, may be able to gain enough strength to destroy the fragile peace that may appear in the next few years. Funding the ANDSF might also include funding a South/Central Asia regional counterterrorism and SOF center of excellence in Kabul. That is another decision on the table for Afghan partners.

So, America can finish helping the Afghans win their war against the Taliban movement, or walk away and pay the price later if the terrorist groups in the region once again make Afghanistan their home base. The ANDSF have earned our trust, they have bled beside us, and for the last five years, they have fought the Taliban until the Taliban movement did the unthinkableenter peace talks with the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan.

The choice seems clear for every partner of Afghanistan today: win the peace through long-term economic, security, and diplomatic engagement or set the region ablaze again and pull too much support from the Afghan government and people.

So, when the pundits tell you the Taliban are just about to win the war, ask them why the Taliban havent done it already? The Taliban and Pakistan will tell you, if they are honest, that the ANDSF is too large and too capable. The pundits might tell you that the Taliban have cities surrounded, as if that means they could actually take, hold, and govern the population centers of Afghanistan. The evergreen analyst view of the Afghan war is that the Taliban are always building strength, and they have the ANDSF surrounded. That is stated as if it means the Taliban are some highly-capable force that is well trained for urban combat and has the logistics capability and reserve fighting forces to take and hold a large city.

How would you assess a thief that has sat in his car outside a mansion for 19 years claiming that he could break in and rob them blind anytime he wants to? You could say he is a master-thief just waiting for the right moment. You might also have to admit, he is an amateur with a good PR firm that cant seem to find the will or capability to actually jump the fence and enter the house.

If you want to know who will win the war in Afghanistan, it is better to look at the indicators of long-term capability. Until a peace agreement is reached and a comprehensive ceasefire is enacted, these are some areas worthy of study.

The Taliban has an excellent propaganda machine. The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan is struggling to match them. As morale wins wars, this is a useful thing to study. Can the Republic convince the right number of Afghans to stop supporting the Taliban dream? Only time will tell. The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan must at least improve its ability to make public statements in the Western Press (where the development funding comes from). I am always dismayed by how quickly the Taliban can get its messages into the AP or NYT, while the Afghan government struggles to quickly write and publish a simple Op-ed.

The ANDSF must continue to recruit, train, and deploy forces across the nation to stop Taliban, criminal, and terrorist activities. The Taliban must also continue to grow and sustain its militias. While many are angry that they cannot easily access the ANDSF numbers that might help see the future of force generation, they should be working equally as hard to look at the Taliban data on this topic. At the moment, the ANDSF seem much more capable of turning civilians into proficient war-fighters. In the end, the ability to stay on the battlefield will determine victory. It would be beneficial to the ANDSF to make their numbers more publicly available. Although some of the negative ANDSF statistics will be used in Taliban propaganda, the possibility of future foreign funding of the ANDSF will hinge on their progress. The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan must open the books to show donors how they are doing.

Earning the trust of the people is another critical assessment topic. Surveys about this topic by the Asia Foundation are very illuminating. At the moment, the Afghan people surveyed (they surely didnt interview as many in the Taliban strong holds) trust the ANDSF much more than the Taliban. The constant focus of the ANDSF to respect their citizens human rights and to be their guardians, and not their masters, has had an effect. If the Taliban continue their trend of daily war crimes against Afghan civilians and allowing other terrorists to target Afghan women and children, I dont expect the trust of the people in the ANDSF will be decreasing any time soon.

There are many other ways to assess the progress in and the future of the Afghan war. Its important to move beyond labeling the Afghan war as an American or NATO victory or loss, and it needs to be the first step taken in discussions regarding the war. Look at the ANDSF and Taliban force generation, where the Afghan people place their trust, and who is winning the public relations and propaganda battles daily.

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America Already Won in Afghanistan But We Missed the Victory - ClearanceJobs

Six years ago, Dutch intelligence agents reportedly infiltrated a malicious group of hackers working out an office building not far from the Kremlin. Dutch agents hacked into a security camera that monitored people entering the Moscow building, according to the Dutch newspaper de Volkskrant; they also reportedly monitored in 2016 as the hackers broke into the servers of the U.S. Democratic Party.

The hackers came to be known as APT-29 or The Dukes, or more commonly, Cozy Bear, and have been linked to Russias security agencies. According to the report, the Dutch findings were passed onto U.S. officials, and may have been a key piece of evidence that led U.S. authorities to conclude the Kremlin was conducting offensive cyberoperations to hack U.S. political parties during the 2016 presidential campaign.

Fast forward to 2020: the Cozy Bear hackers are back though for those watching closely, they never really went anywhere.

British, American, and Canadian intelligence agencies on July 16 accused Cozy Bear hackers of using malware and so-called spear-phishing emails to deceive researchers at universities, private companies, and elsewhere.

The goal, the agencies said, was to steal research on the effort to create a vaccine for the disease caused by the new coronavirus, COVID-19.

APT-29 is likely to continue to target organizations involved in COVID-19 vaccine research and development, as they seek to answer additional intelligence questions relating to the pandemic, the British National Cyber Security Center said in a statement, released jointly with the Canadian and U.S. agencies.

Its totally unacceptable for Russian intelligence services to attack those who are fighting the coronavirus pandemic, British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the accusations unacceptable.

We can say only one thing: that Russia has nothing to do with these attempts, he told reporters.

The advisory did not name which companies or organizations had been targeted, nor did it say whether any specific data was actually stolen. The head of the British National Cyber Center said the penetrations were detected in February and that there was no sign any data had actually been stolen.

The advisory did say the hackers exploited a vulnerability within computer servers to gain initial footholds and that they had used custom malware not publicly associated with any campaigns previously attributed to the group.

Russias main intelligence agencies are believed to all have offensive cybercapabilities of one sort or another.

Cyber-researchers say Cozy Bear most likely is affiliated with Russias Foreign Intelligence Service, known as the SVR, possibly in coordination with the countrys main security agency, the Federal Security Service (FSB).

According to researchers, the groups origins date back to at least 2008 and it has targeted companies, universities, research institutes, and governments around the world.

The group is known for using sophisticated techniques of penetrating computer networks to gather intelligence to help guide Kremlin policymakers.

It is not, however, known for publicizing or leaking stolen information, something that sets it apart from a rival intelligence agency whose hacking and cyberoperations have been much more publicized in recent years the military intelligence agency known widely as the GRU.

GRU hackers, known as Fancy Bear, or APT-28, have been accused of not only hacking computer systems, but also stealing and publicizing information, with an eye toward discrediting a target. U.S. intelligence agencies have accused GRU hackers of stealing documents from U.S. Democratic Party officials in 2016, and also of leaking them to the public in the run-up to the November presidential election.

The GRU had multiple units, including Units 26165 and 74455, engaged in cyber operations that involved the staged releases of documents stolen through computer intrusions, Special Counsel Robert Mueller wrote in a July 2018 indictment that charged 12 GRU officers. These units conducted large-scale cyber operations to interfere with the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

Three months later, U.S. prosecutors in Pittsburg, Pennsylvania, issued a related Fancy Bear indictment accusing some of the same officers of conducting a four-year hacking campaign targeting international-sport anti-doping organizations, global soccers governing body, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, and other groups.

A GRU officer named in the Mueller indictment has also been named by German intelligence as being behind the 2015 hack of the Bundestag.

But unlike the GRU and the Fancy Bear hackers, there has never been any public identification of specific Cozy Bear hackers or criminal indictments targeting them.

The U.S.-based cybersecurity company Crowdstrike, which was the first to publicly document the infiltration of the Democratic National Committee, said in its initial report that both the Cozy Bear and the Fancy Bear hackers had penetrated the committees network, apparently independently of each other.

Its not clear exactly what the motivation of the Cozy Bear hackers might be in targeting research organizations, though like many other nations, Russia is racing to develop a vaccine that would stop COVID-19, and stealing scientific data research might help give Russian researchers a leg up in the race.

Russia has reported more than 765,000 confirmed cases. Its official death toll, however, is unusually low, and a growing number of experts inside and outside the country say authorities are undercounting the fatalities.

In the past, Western intelligence and law enforcement have repeatedly warned of the pernicious capabilities of Russian state-sponsored hackers. In the United States, authorities have sought the arrest and extradition of dozens of Russians on various cybercharges around the world.

As in the Mueller indictments, U.S. authorities have used criminal charges to highlight the nexus between Russian government agencies and regular cybercriminals and also to signal to Russian authorities that U.S. spy agencies are watching.

For example, the Mueller indictment identified specific money transfers that the GRU allegedly made using the cryptocurrency bitcoin to buy server capacity and other tools as part of its hacking campaigns.

As of last year, those efforts had not had much effect in slowing down state-sponsored hacking, not just by Russia, but also by North Korea, Iran, China, and others.

[I]n spite of some impressive indictments against several named nation-state actors their activities show no signs of diminishing, Crowdstrike said in a 2019 threat report.

Gleb Pavlovsky, a Russian political consultant and former top Kremlin adviser, downplayed the Western allegations.

We are talking about the daily activities of all secret services, especially regarding hot topics like vaccine secrets, he told Current Time. Of course, they are all being stolen. Of course, stealing is not good, but secret services exist in order to steal.

In the U.S. Congress, some lawmakers signaled that the findings would add further momentum to new sanctions targeting Russia.

It should be clear by now that Russias hacking efforts didnt stop after the 2016 election, Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee, said in a statement.

This article originally appeared on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Follow @RFERL on Twitter.

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From Vietnam to Afghanistan: 30 Years of Service - We Are The Mighty

QUETTA: Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Establishment Mohammad Shehzad Arbab said on Thursday that steps were being taking to increase trade with Afghanistan and improve facilities at the Pak-Afghan border.

He stated this during a visit of a parliamentary delegation to the border town Chaman. The members of the delegation include Special Representative of the Prime Minister on Afghanistan Affairs M. Sadiq, Senator Shandana Gulzar and MNA Salahuddin Ayubi.

Additional Chief Secretary Home Hafiz Abdul Basit, Chief Collector Customs, Balochistan, Gul Rehman, Collectors Preventive Irfan Javed and Waheed Marwat, FC Commandant Colonel Rashid and other senior officers of the ministries of commerce, interior, Railways, Nadra, FC and NLC also accompanied the delegation.

The delegation visited FC Fort, Chaman Border Crossing Point and the Chaman Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

During a meeting, the delegation members were briefed on various initiatives. These initiatives included: keeping the border open seven days a week, restoring railway connectivity, reducing the number of security check-posts, facilitating the local population and promoting bilateral trade.

Speaking on the occasion, Mr Arbab said that bilateral trade ties and better people-to-people contacts between the two countries were very important for both the countries. Therefore, he said, Pakistan would take all necessary steps to remove hurdles in the smooth flow of trade between the two countries.

The delegation members said that the Pakistans new visa policy for Afghanistan had facilitated Afghan citizens, businessmen, students and patients and it would help improve long-term relations between the two countries.

Published in Dawn, January 8th, 2021

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Steps being taken to increase trade with Afghanistan: PM aide - DAWN.com

News

Afghanistan Cricket Board had considered moving the series to Oman

Afghanistan's ODI squad will arrive in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday after a delay in the arrival of their visas had threatened to bring about a late shift in venue for their upcoming series against Ireland.

The UAE temporarily suspended visas for nationals of 13 countries in November for Covid-related reasons, leading the Afghanistan Cricket Board (ACB) to make contingency plans to stage the three-match, World Cup Super League series in Oman instead.

Afghanistan have played the majority of their home fixtures in India in recent years, but are currently exploring alternative venues. Oman's main home venue in Al Almerat recently received ICC accreditation, and the ACB had suggested staging the series there. Zimbabwe's planned tour next month is also likely to be held in Oman.

But with Ireland already in Abu Dhabi, having scheduled a four-match ODI series against the UAE to help them acclimatise before the Afghanistan fixtures, Cricket Ireland maintained that the series should be played at the Sheikh Zayed Stadium if possible.

The two boards met virtually on Monday, with Cricket Ireland outlining their concerns over the possible switch in venues. Ireland's A team, the Wolves, are planning a tour of Bangladesh in February and March, immediately after the series, with some overlap in squad members and support staff, while they had also hoped to minimise travel in order to mitigate the risks of Covid-19 transmission.

And after Afghanistan's visas for the UAE finally came through, the ACB confirmed in a press release on Tuesday morning that the series would be staged in Abu Dhabi as initially intended, with fixtures due to be played on January 18, 21 and 23. However, the ACB's release left open the possibility of a change in dates, saying: "the hurdles may result in the series being postponed by three to four days than originally scheduled".

Afghanistan named their squad for the series last week, with the majority of players due to travel to the UAE on Tuesday. There was no place in the 16-man group for Hazratullah Zazai, who has struggled for form since his 162* in a T20I against Ireland in February 2019, or for the veteran allrounder Samiullah Shinwari, while Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Azmatullah Omarzai could make their ODI debuts.

Three players - Rashid Khan, Mohammad Nabi and Mujeeb Ur Rahman - are currently involved in the Big Bash League, and are set to miss the end of the group stage and the play-offs as a result of their inclusion. An ACB spokesperson told ESPNcricinfo that their arrival date was unclear at this stage, with Melbourne Renegades coach Michael Klinger suggesting on Tuesday that Nabi is likely to be available for his side's fixture against Adelaide Strikers on January 8.

Afghanistan squad: Asghar Afghan (captain), Azmatullah Omarzai, Gulbadin Naib, Hashmatullah Shahidi, Javed Ahmadi, Mohammad Nabi, Mujeeb Ur Rahman, Najibullah Zadran, Naveen-ul-Haq, Rahmanullah Gurbaz, Rahmat Shah, Rashid Khan, Sayed Shirzad, Sharafuddin Ashraf, Usman Ghadi, Yamin Ahmadzai

Afghanistan vs Ireland, World Cup Super League fixtures:

1st ODI - January 182nd ODI - January 213rd ODI - January 23All games start 9.30am local time at Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi

Matt Roller is an assistant editor at ESPNcricinfo. He tweets at @mroller98

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Afghanistan-Ireland series to be held in the UAE after visas come through - ESPNcricinfo

India

oi-Vicky Nanjappa

| Updated: Friday, January 8, 2021, 17:32 [IST]

New Delhi, Jan 08: Afghanistan's National Directorate of Security which had busted a Chinese spy ring last month has for the first time confirmed that the security agency detained a Chinese national for espionage.

Wolesi Jirga, the Afghan House of Representatives demanded answers from Ahmad Zia Saraj, the chief of the national Directorate of Security. Saraj confirmed that a group of Chinese nationals had been arrested on charges of espionage in Kabul. The NDS chief according to private news channel Ariana News said that a group of Chinese nationals had been arrested, but as it was a sensitive issue, he could not share more details.

Afghanistan had let go of the 10 spies who were arrested. They were allowed to return to China on a chartered flight.

Chinese spies caught in Afghanistan espionage racket, return to Beijing on chartered flight

It may be recalled that in December, the agencies in Afghanistan busted a major Chinese spying racket and have arrested 10 spies. While the details of the terms of release is not known, Amrullah Saleh, the first vide president had said that no foreign national citizen has been arrested in an effort operation in the Khairkhaneh area. The arrested are palmadis that under the scope. A number of them have been arrested on the suspicion of being involved in assassination and kidnapping, he said.

During the meeting of Saleh and Chinese envoy Wang Yu, the former had offered to release the 10 spies after Beijing submits a formal apology for betraying Kabul's trust. However Yu had insisted that the detentions are not declared by Kabul said a report in the Hindustan Times.

It had been found that both China and Pakistan had been working closely to undertake espionage activities in Kabul.

The Afghan National Directorate of Security recently discovered a dense network of Chinese spies, who were trying to influence the geopolitical dynamics in the region. The NDS had on December 10 cracked down on the network and arrested a Chinese intelligence operative Li Yangyang. He had been operating in the country since July. He was arrested from his Kabul residence and the NDS recovered arms, ammunition and explosives including Ketamine powder.

On the same day, the NDS arrested another Chinese spy Sha Hung from her Shirpur residence in Kabul. The NDS recovered explosives and highly objectionable material from here residence.

Both were kingpins of the espionage network and they were meeting with members of the Haqqani Network that is backed by the ISI. Officials tell OneIndia that both China and Pakistan are working to disrupt the Afghan peace talks. Both are trying to establish themselves as dominant forces in the region and influence the Taliban and Al-Qaeda once the US security forces withdraw.

Big Chinese spy racket linked to Pakistans ISI busted in Afghanistan

Covid-19: Union Health Minister says 'Indians to get vaccine in the next few days' | Oneindia News

The two arrested spies were also in touch with some Taliban leaders and were also tracking the moment of the Uighur activists who had fled to Afghanistan. They were focusing on the patches of Badakhshan and Kumar provinces. It was also found that they were in touch with the Haqqani Network.

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Yes they were arrested: Afghanistans first confirmation on arresting Chinese nationals for espionage - Oneindia