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Indias eminently successful twodecadeold foreign policy, driven by its soft power and investments worth $3 billion, is getting unravelled in the graveyard of empires Afghanistan. Having decisively defeated the Taliban and alQaeda in 2001-2002, the US and its allies have finally abandoned their failed nationbuilding mission and left Afghanistan to its fate. A bloody civil war is raging between the legitimate government and the Taliban.

Except India, all regional stakeholders Pakistan, China, Iran and Russia (probably also standing in for Turkmenistan and Tajikistan) have placed their bets on the Taliban. Turkey, desperate to revive its Ottoman legacy, is pursuing a middle path by trying to gain a foothold through its proposal to provide security for Kabul airport. However, with its duplicitous conduct, inexplicably condoned by the US, only Pakistan, as the original creator, reviver and now active supporter, currently seems to have some direct leverage over the resurgent Taliban.

The future of Afghanistan hinges on the duration and outcome of the civil war and the avatar in which the Taliban manifests itself. There is no certainty that the Taliban will emerge as an outright winner. Even if it manages to topple the current government, a new internecine tribal civil war may commence. The probability of the radical Taliban reforming itself is very low. India will have to take into account these factors to decide its tactical and strategic foreign policy.

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Afghanistan is a multiethnic and multilingual society with very strong tribal loyalties even within the ethnic groups. The main ethnic groups are Pashtun, 42 per cent; Tajik, 27 per cent; Hazara, 9 per cent; Uzbek, 9 per cent; and other smaller groups 13 per cent. The Pashtuns are the major ethnic group in the south and the east, the Tajiks in the northeast. The predominant groups in north-central Afghanistan are the Hazaras, Tajiks, and Uzbeks.

Historically, stable governments/regimes have been Pashtunled but with a proportional share of power with other groups. The Taliban is predominantly Pashtun and loathes to share power. In the past, it has also targeted the minority 10 per cent, mostly Hazara Shia population. The present elected Afghan government is also multiethnic with a Pashtun President.

Officially, the Afghan National Army (ANA) also has a proportional ethic representation but there are reports that after the resurrection of the Taliban, the Tajiks have become predominant. Also, the ANA is composed of a younger population that has witnessed stability and relative prosperity post2001.

The Taliban has shown no inclination to share power or form a national government. It has been fighting the ANA for the last decade and has been ruthless in its treatment of captured soldiers. The Ashraf Ghani-led Afghan Government is well aware of the fate of former President Najibullah in 1996. The Taliban takes no prisoners.

It is pertinent to recall the civil war in Afghanistan 1989-2001. After the exit of Soviet Union, the unpopular government under Najibullah fought for three years, 1989-92. Thereafter, the Mujahideen groupings under warlords fought amongst themselves for four years. 1995 onwards, the Taliban, actively supported by Pakistan, took another three years to establish control, but the Northern Alliance still held on and finally returned to Kabul in November 2001.

It is my assessment that the civil war is not going to be a cakewalk for the Taliban. The probability of history repeating itself is very high. The Afghan government and the ANA will fight with their backs to the wall to force a reconciliation on the Taliban, failing which, it will fight to the finish. This will give enough time to the nonPashtun ethnic groups to reorganise themselves and carry on the civil war. All stakeholders, except Pakistan, riding the Taliban bandwagon are under no illusion. China, Russia, Iran and Turkey are only tactically backing the Taliban but strategically keeping their options open. They will not directly assist the Taliban in any manner.

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The suave representatives of the Taliban in Doha have lulled the foreign offices of the world to believe that it is a nationalist organisation, has shed its extremely radical Islamic ideology and will transform Afghanistan, as per my assessment, into a conservative Islamic State on the Iran model.

However, its conduct has shown no change. It has reimposed its radical version of the sharia in areas under its control as it had done in 1995-2001. Womens rights in terms of schooling, dress, movement and jobs no longer exist. There are reports of lists of women above 15 years and widows below 45 being trafficked for marriage with its Talibs. Surrendering soldiers have been ruthlessly killed.

The Taliban has promised the US and China, and also, most likely, Iran, Russia, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, that it will not allow terrorists operating against them to be based in Afghanistan. It should suffice to mention that in 2001, it accepted destruction and loss of Afghanistan itself rather than handover Osama bin Laden.

In my view, heady with the victory over the US, the Taliban will return in a more radicalised avatar. Its appeal lies in its radicalism. The Taliban is its own master. After the defeat of the ISI, it will view itself as the chief protector and propagator of Islam. All countries banking on it for not supporting terrorists are in for a surprise and so is Pakistan when Pashtun nationalism comes to the fore.

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In India, the strategic community has reduced the debate to whether India should back the beleaguered Afghan government or the odds on favourite, the Taliban. The drivers are to retain our influence in Afghanistan and prevent Pakistan from using the Taliban in Jammu and Kashmir.

Traditionally, India has enjoyed the goodwill of the people of Afghanistan. Almost every Afghan politician has studied in India. Our economic contribution of $3 billion is the second-highest after the US. But our influence in Afghanistan is with an elected government. The biggest gain over the last two decades has been that with active cooperation of the Afghan government, we could conduct covert operations against a common adversary. What influence can we have over the Taliban except to safeguard our embassy?

The fear of the Taliban coming for terrorism in J&K is a figment of imagination. As the Northern Army Commander in 2007-8, I had carried out a study to put an end to wild rumours regarding infiltration by al-Qaeda and the Taliban. The conclusion was that let alone the Taliban, no Pashtun, Sindhi or Balochi terrorist had ever been killed or caught in J&K. All foreign terrorists had been from Pakistan Punjab. Moreover, Pakistan will be more worried about Pashtun nationalism, terrorism emanating from the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) and from across the Durand Line. Also, the road to Srinagar (hearts and minds of the people) runs from Delhi and not from Kabul.

In my view, India should tactically engage with the Taliban to cater for its change of heart to form a national government or a quick victory. Strategically, we should continue with the existing policy, highlighting the need for reconciliation and a national government. As a worst case, India should have the will and patience to shape the history to repeat itself.

Lt Gen H S Panag PVSM, AVSM (R) served in the Indian Army for 40 years. He was GOC in C Northern Command and Central Command. Post retirement, he was Member of Armed Forces Tribunal. Views are personal.

(Edited by Anurag Chaubey)

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A civil war in Afghanistan wont be a cakewalk for Taliban. Thats opportunity India - ThePrint

Kabul, Afghanistan, August 5, 2021 The International Rescue Committee (IRC) expresses grave concern for the marked escalation in violence across large parts of Afghan territory over the last 48 hours.

This major increase in violence could cause devastation for civilians who are at risk of being caught up between warring parties. According to the latest UNAMA report, civilian casualties reached record levels in the first half of 2021 and without a significant de-escalation in violence, Afghanistan is set to witness the highest ever number in a single year. Afghanistan has already produced the second-largest displaced population in the world, after Syria, and with reports that 30,000 are fleeing Afghanistan per day, this number will rise exponentially.

Already, around 360,000 people have been displaced by conflict this year, but accurate and up-to-date figures are unavailable as most of the humanitarian staff operating amid the main areas of the fighting have also been displaced.

Vicki Aken, Afghanistan Director for the IRC, said,

In Afghanistan, women and children made up close to half of all civilian casualties in the first half of this year, and the latest violence should be cause for great alarm for members of the international community. Where fighting is most intense, humanitarian aid workers have also been forced to temporarily flee. If left to unravel further, we could see a major exodus of the population to neighbouring countries, with many people forced to turn to dangerous and illegal routes out of the country as external borders remain closed.

Meanwhile, the greatest need remains inside Afghanistan, and hundreds of thousands of people have already been internally displaced due to conflict as well as drought. Humanitarian organisations like the IRC are committed to remaining in Afghanistan and continuing to deliver support to its population; it is vital that world leaders do the same. The international community cannot afford to turn their backs but instead must double-down on commitments to ensure humanitarian access for the delivery of aid, advocate for an immediate ceasefire and support a peaceful settlement, and provide resettlement pathways for Afghan refugees.

The United States has begun relocating a group of Afghan Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) applicants to Virginia. The International Rescue Committee is providing services for these individuals, including reception, medical care, case management and resettlement by a sponsoring resettlement agency. However, this is not a solution to the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan even at the most optimistic this would only represent 0.02% of those in humanitarian need.

The overall humanitarian situation is worsening as the conflict intensifies; a situation that should be untenable for world leaders. Afghanistan needs sustained aid and diplomatic support from both Western and regional powers - without this, there is little chance that needs will be met and peace will be found.

With more than 18 million people in need of humanitarian aid, Afghanistan is facing an acute emergency, ranking second on the IRCs 2021 emergency Watchlist - a global list of humanitarian crises that are expected to deteriorate the most over the coming year. The IRC has been working in Afghanistan since 1988 providing aid to the most vulnerable. With more than 1,700 staff and volunteers, the IRC reaches more than a million Afghans each year with education, protection, water and sanitation, emergency response, and economic recovery programs.

About the IRC

The International Rescue Committee responds to the worlds worst humanitarian crises, helping to restore health, safety, education, economic wellbeing, and power to people devastated by conflict and disaster. Founded in 1933 at the call of Albert Einstein, the IRC is at work in over 40 countries and over 20 U.S. citieshelping people to survive, reclaim control of their future, and strengthen their communities.Learn more at http://www.rescue.org and follow the IRC on Twitter & Facebook.

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IRC warns that increased conflict could spell tragedy for Afghanistan, where 18 million people already live in dire need of humanitarian assistance -...

The Western armies lose no matter how big and well-equipped they are because the insurgents are fighting on home ground

I will never kneel before such a destructive force (as the Taliban), declared Ashraf Ghani, the soon-to-be ex-president of Afghanistan. We will either sit knee-to-knee for real negotiations at the table, or break their knees on the battlefield. Good luck with that, Ashraf.

General Sami Sadat, still commander of Helmand province as I write this (although perhaps not by the time you read it), was equally confident, but warned that the safety of the world is at stake: This will increase the hope for small extremist groups to mobilise in the cities of Europe and America, and will have a devastating effect on global security.

And how did it all come to this? Ashraf Ghani pointed out that it is obviously Americas fault. The reason for our current situation is that the (US decision to withdraw) was taken abruptly, he told parliament on Monday.

Well, fair enough. US forces have been in Afghanistan for a bare twenty years and the treacherous cowards are already quitting. Donald Trump signed a treaty with the Taliban eighteen months ago promising that all US troops would leave Afghanistan by the 1st of May this year. Short notice indeed.

Im tempted to go back into the archives and find similar brave declarations of imminent victory by South Vietnamese generals (followed by similar predictions of global disaster if they are abandoned) in the final weeks before the helicopters started plucking Americans from the US embassy roof in Saigon in 1975. But its a nice day and I cant be bothered.

President Ghani, General Sadat, and all their friends are reading from the same old script, just 46 years later, and once that final scene has played out in Kabul theyll go and live in the United States. (Dont worry. Theyve saved up enough money.) The only real surprise here is how thoroughly Western armed forces managed to forget their own history.

Im not talking about the old history, when three invasions of Afghanistan at the height of British imperial power (1839-42; 1878-80; 1919) all failed to achieve their objectives.

Im not even talking about the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in 1979-89 when the United States helped the Taliban and similar Islamist groups to do to the Russians exactly what the Taliban have now done to the Americans themselves.

The problem there was that Americans did not see Russians as Western, although viewed from a low orbit they are virtually identical. US generals, therefore, believed that some essential difference between the two armies protected American troops from the fate of the Russians.

Never mind all that. The really unpardonable mistake was forgetting all the lessons Western armies had learned from a dozen lost guerilla wars in former colonies between 1954 and 1975.

France in Algeria and Indochina, Britain in Kenya, Cyprus and Aden, Portugal in Angola and Mozambique, the proxy wars in Rhodesia and South-West Africa (as they were then known), and the United States again in Indochina. All the wars were lost, and yet the defeated imperial powers didn't lose anything except face.

Western armies really did learn the lessons of those defeats. As a young man in the 1970s I taught military history and strategy in the Canadian Forces Staff College and then at Britains Royal Military Academy at Sandhurst. The doctrine I taught was a) Western armies always lose guerilla wars in the Third World, and b) it never really matters.

The Western armies lose no matter how big and well-equipped they are because the insurgents are fighting on home ground. They cant quit and go home because they already are home. Your side can always quit and go home, and sooner or later your own public will demand that they do. So, you are bound to lose eventually, even if you win all the battles.

But losing doesnt matter, because the insurgents are always first and foremost nationalists. They may have picked up bits of some grand ideology to make them feel that history is on their side - Marxism or Islamism or whatever - but all they want is for you to go home so they can run their own show. They wont actually follow you home.

By 1975 this hard-earned wisdom was the official doctrine in almost every army in the Western world, but military generations are short. A typical military career is only 25 years, so by 2001 nobody remembered it. Their successors had to start learning it again the hard way. Maybe by now, they have.

(Gwynne Dyer's new book is 'The Shortest History of War'. The views expressed are personal.)

Go here to see the original:
Afghanistan: How Did They Think It Would End? - Daily Pioneer

The Taliban escalated its nationwide offensive in Afghanistan on Sunday, renewing assaults on three major cities and rocketing a major airport in the south amid warnings that the conflict was rapidly worsening.

As Afghan government forces struggled with a resurgent Taliban after the withdrawal of US-led foreign forces, hundreds of commandos were deployed to the economically important western city of Herat, while authorities in the southern city of Lashkar Gah called for more troops to rein in the assaults amid fierce fighting.

In Lashkar Gah, the provincial capital of Helmand once the focus of UK military efforts eyewitnesses described street fighting, bodies lying in the open and Afghan government and US airstrikes raining down on Taliban positions.

According to reports from the city, Afghan forces remained in control of the city centre late on Sunday.

The current focus of the Talibans efforts appears to be a number of key provincial capitals, not least in the countrys south, with the ambition that the fall of Kandahar or Lashkar Gah would rapidly topple the five surrounding provinces.

The capture of any major urban centre would also take their current offensive to another level and fuel concerns that the army is incapable of resisting the Talibans advances.

The spokesperson for the Afghan armed forces, Gen Ajmal Omar Shinwari, told a press conference on Sunday that three provinces in southern and western Afghanistan faced critical security situations.

Aid agencies are also fearful that the fall of a major city would worsen an emerging humanitarian crisis that has already forced large numbers to flee their homes.

The aircraft are bombing the city every minute. Every inch of the city has been bombed, Badshah Khan, a resident of Lashkar Gah, told Agence France-Presse by phone.

You can see dead bodies on the streets. There are bodies of people in the main square.

The Taliban also struck the sprawling Kandahar airport in southern Afghanistan with at least three rockets overnight, the insurgent groups spokesman said on Sunday, adding that the aim was to thwart airstrikes conducted by Afghan government forces.

Kandahar airport was targeted by us because the enemy were using it as a centre to conduct airstrikes against us, said Zabiullah Mujahid, a Taliban spokesperson. Afghan government officials said the rocket attacks forced authorities to suspend all flights and the runway was partially damaged.

Airport chief Massoud Pashtun said two rockets had hit the runway and repairs were under way, with planes likely to resume service later on Sunday.

The facility is vital to maintaining the logistics and air support needed to keep the Taliban from overrunning the city, while also providing aerial cover for large tracts of southern Afghanistan.

Officials said the Taliban saw Kandahar as a major strategic focus for their efforts amid the suggestion that the Taliban would like to use it as a temporary capital in the south.

In the countrys west, Afghan officials acknowledged that the Taliban had gained control of strategic buildings around Herat city, forcing civilians to remain in their homes.

On Sunday, the ministry of defence said that hundreds of commandos had been sent to Herat to help beat back the insurgent assault.

These forces will increase offensive operations and suppress the Taliban in Herat, the ministry tweeted.

Lashkar Gah, however, appears the most vulnerable.

Heavy clashes between the Taliban and government forces were continuing inside the city on Sunday, with militant fighters described as being only a few hundred metres from the governors office on Saturday amid Afghan and US airstrikes on Taliban positions.

Fighting is going on inside the city and we have asked for special forces to be deployed, Ataullah Afghan, the head of Helmand provincial council, told AFP.

The city is in the worst condition. I do not know what will happen, said Halim Karimi, a resident of the city of 200,000 residents.

Neither the Taliban will have mercy on us, nor will the government stop bombing.

The Taliban has been advancing in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of US and Nato troops from the country, and in recent weeks the fundamentalist Islamist group said it had captured more than half of all Afghanistans territory, including border crossings with Iran and Pakistan.

As fighting raged, President Ashraf Ghani again slammed the Taliban for failing to marshal its negotiating power to reach a peace deal.

We want peace but they want us to surrender, Ghani said at a cabinet meeting.

The government has repeatedly dismissed the militants steady gains over the summer as lacking strategic value but has largely failed to reverse their momentum on the battlefield.

The Taliban has seized Afghan cities in the past but have managed to retain them only briefly.

The increasingly dire situation in Afghanistan has raised fears of a new Taliban takeover, with Boris Johnson admitting in the House of Commons last month that he was apprehensive about the future of Afghanistan.

If you ask me whether I feel happy about the current situation in Afghanistan, of course I dont. Im apprehensive, Johnson told parliaments liaison committee.

Thousands have been killed in the conflict, including more than 50,000 Afghan civilians and more than 2,000 US and 400 British troops.

See the article here:
Resurgent Taliban escalates nationwide offensive in ...

KABUL, Afghanistan Haji Sakhi decided to flee Afghanistan the night he saw two Taliban members drag a young woman from her home and lash her on the sidewalk. Terrified for his three daughters, he crammed his family into a car the next morning and barreled down winding dirt roads into Pakistan.

That was more than 20 years ago. They returned to Kabul, the capital, nearly a decade later after the U.S.-led invasion toppled the Taliban regime. But now, with the Taliban sweeping across parts of the country as American forces withdraw, Mr. Sakhi, 68, fears a return of the violence he witnessed that night. This time, he says, his family is not waiting so long to leave.

Im not scared of leaving belongings behind, Im not scared of starting everything from scratch, said Mr. Sakhi, who recently applied for Turkish visas for himself, his wife, their three daughters and one son. What Im scared of is the Taliban.

Across Afghanistan, a mass exodus is unfolding as the Taliban press on in their brutal military campaign, which has captured more than half the countrys 400-odd districts, according to some assessments. And with that, fears of a harsh return to extremist rule or a bloody civil war between ethnically aligned militias have taken hold.

So far this year around 330,000 Afghans have been displaced, more than half of them fleeing their homes since the United States began its withdrawal in May, according to the United Nations.

Many have flooded into makeshift tent camps or crowded into relatives homes in cities, the last islands of government control in many provinces. Thousands more are trying to secure passports and visas to leave the country altogether. Others have crammed into smugglers pickup trucks in a desperate bid to slip illegally over the border.

In recent weeks, the number of Afghans crossing the border illegally shot up around 30 to 40 percent compared to the period before international troops began withdrawing in May, according to the International Organization for Migration. At least 30,000 people are now fleeing every week.

The sudden flight is an early sign of a looming refugee crisis, aid agencies warn, and has raised alarms in neighboring countries and Europe that the violence that has escalated since the start of the withdrawal is already spilling across the countrys borders.

Afghanistan is on the brink of another humanitarian crisis, Babar Baloch, a spokesman for the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, said earlier this month. A failure to reach a peace agreement in Afghanistan and stem the current violence will lead to further displacement.

The sudden exodus harks back to earlier periods of heightened unrest: Millions poured out of Afghanistan in the years after the Soviets invaded in 1979. A decade later, more fled as the Soviets withdrew and the country fell into civil war. The exodus continued when the Taliban came to power in 1996.

Afghans currently account for one of the worlds largest populations of refugees and asylum seekers around 3 million people and represent the second highest number of asylum claims in Europe, after Syria.

Now the country is at the precipice of another bloody chapter, but the new outpouring of Afghans comes as attitudes toward migrants have hardened around the world.

After forging a repatriation deal in 2016 to stem migration from war-afflicted countries, Europe has deported tens of thousands of Afghan migrants. Hundreds of thousands more are being forced back by Turkey as well as by neighboring Pakistan and Iran, which together host around 90 percent of displaced Afghans worldwide and have deported a record number of Afghans in recent years.

Coronavirus restrictions have also made legal and illegal migration more difficult, as countries closed their borders and scaled back refugee programs, pushing thousands of migrants to travel to Europe along more dangerous routes.

In the United States, the growing backlog for the Special Immigration Visa program available to Afghans who face threats because of their work with the U.S. government has left roughly 20,000 eligible Afghans and their families trapped in bureaucratic limbo in Afghanistan. The Biden administration has come under heavy pressure to protect Afghan allies as the United States withdraws troops and air support amid a Taliban insurgency.

Still, as the fighting between Taliban, government and militia forces intensifies and civilian casualties reach record highs, many Afghans remain determined to leave.

One recent morning in Kabul, people gathered outside the passport office. Within hours, a line snaked around three city blocks and past a mural of migrants with an ominous warning: Dont jeopardize you and your familys lives. Migration is not the solution.

Few people were deterred.

I need to get a passport and get the hell out of this country, said Abdullah, 41, who like many in Afghanistan goes by only one name.

Abdullah, who drives a taxi between Kabul and Ghazni, a trading hub in the southeast, remembers speeding toward the capital when fighting erupted recently, picking up a group of Afghan troops who demanded a ride along the way. Two days later, his boss called to say that Taliban fighters had asked about a taxi driver seen evacuating security forces and had recited Abdullahs license plate.

Terrified, Abdullah says he will find any way to leave.

Trying to leave legally is costly, and if we go illegally it is dangerous, he said. But right now the country is even more dangerous.

Farther west, a surge of Afghans have flocked to Zaranj, a hub for illegal migration in Nimruz Province, where smugglers pickup trucks snake south down the borderlands to Iran each day.

In March, around 200 cars left for the Iranian border each day from Zaranj a 300 percent increase from 2019, according to David Mansfield, a migration researcher and consultant with the British Overseas Development Institute. By early July, 450 cars were heading to the border each day.

Those who can afford it pay thousands of dollars to travel to Turkey and then Europe. But many more strike pay-as-you-go deals with smugglers, planning to work illegally in Iran until they can afford the next leg of the journey.

We dont have any money or means of getting a visa, said Mohammad Adib, who is considering migrating illegally to Iran.

Mr. Adib fled his home in Qala-e-Naw, in the countrys northwest, in early July after the Taliban laid siege to the city one night. As dawn broke, he says the paw-paw-paw of gunfire was replaced with wails from neighbors. Electricity lines littered the ground. Doors of houses were broken down. The road was stained with blood.

We cannot find another way out, he said.

In Tajikistan, officials recently announced that the country was prepared to host around 100,000 Afghan refugees, after the country received around 1,600 Afghans this month.

Other neighboring countries have expressed less willingness to host an outpouring of Afghans, instead beefing up their border security and warning that their economies cannot handle a new influx of refugees. Leaders in Central Europe have called to increase their border security as well, fearing the current exodus could swell into a crisis similar to that in 2015 when nearly a million, mostly Syrian migrants entered Europe.

But in Afghanistan, about half of the countrys population is already in need of humanitarian assistance this year twice as many people as last year and six times as many as four years ago, according to the United Nations.

Mohammad Nabi Mohammadi, 40, borrowed $1,000 to bring 36 relatives to Kabul after the Taliban attacked his village in Malistan district. Today his three-room apartment, situated on the edge of the city, feels more like a crowded shelter than a home.

The men sleep in one large living room, women stay in the other and the children cram into the apartments one small bedroom alongside bags of clothes and cleaning supplies. Mr. Mohammadi borrows more money from neighbors to buy enough bread and chicken which have nearly doubled in price as food prices surge to feed everyone.

Now, sinking further into debt with no relief in sight, he is at a loss for what to do.

These families are sick, they are traumatized, they have lost everything, he said, standing near his kitchens one countertop out of earshot from his family. Unless the situation improves, I dont know what we will do.

Asad Timory contributed reporting from Herat; Zabihullah Ghazi from Laghman; Fahim Abed and Jim Huylebroek from Kabul.

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As Fears Grip Afghanistan, Hundreds of Thousands Flee - The New York Times