Archive for the ‘Afghanistan’ Category

Afghanistan Overview – worldbank.org

Selected World Bank Achievements in Afghanistan

Building Institutions: The Capacity Building for Results (CBR) Facility supports government in developing its internal human capacity, organizational structures, and functions over the medium term to improve service delivery to the population. CBR promotes accountability in line ministries by introducing results-based reform and services improvement programs. CBR is also one of the key tools for the government to reduce reliance on external technical assistance and parallel structures. The grant helps finance the costs associated with (i) technical assistance for preparation and implementation of capacity building programs; (ii) recruitment of some 1,500 managerial, common function, and professional staff for key positions in selected line ministries; (iii) a management internship program; (iv) training of civil servants; and (v) project management, monitoring, and evaluation.

CBR is demand driven and open to all line ministries and independent agencies. Based on pre-agreed criteria, including service delivery potential and reform readiness, line ministries and agencies are grouped as either Category 1 (high priority) or Category 2. Of the advertised CBR positions, 929 have been contracted to date, 70 of whom are women (7 percent of contracted positions), with another 348 recruitments at various stages of quality review and approval. CBR is also assisting salary harmonization for donor-funded consultants embedded in or working in support of government.

Education: The Higher Education Development Project (HEDP) aims to increase access to higher education in Afghanistan, as well as improve its quality and relevance. HEDP uses an Investment Project Financing instrument based on the Results-based Financing modality. Enrollment in key priority disciplines (those that contribute to economic and social development) has increased substantially from 64,200 at the project baseline to about 79,400 this year. The special focus on increasing female enrollment has also paid substantial dividends with female enrollment increasing from 11,400 to approximately 15,000 for the current academic year.

The Skills Development Program revived two key institutions in Kabul: the National Institute of Management and Administration (NIMA) that prepares young professionals to acquire junior-level jobs in the public and private sectors; and the National Institute of Music that trains gifted young musicians, establishing a nurturing platform for music in the country. Under the Afghanistan Second Skills Development Program, 100 national occupational skills standards have been benchmarked to an international level with the support of an international certification agency, and corresponding curricula developed for 15 trades.

The project is financing an academic partnership contract with Pune University in India to enable 20 faculty members from NIMA to undertake masters degree courses. A series of memorandum of understanding is also being finalized with other host institutions in India to provide one-year diploma courses in specific trades to some 75 technical and vocational education and training (TVET) teachers selected through a competitive process. In addition, over 522 TVET graduates have been supported with scholarships through a voucher program, which facilitates further professional studies for meritorious students who have graduated from TVET institutes.

Financial Sector: The Access to Finance Project aims to build institutional capacity to improve access to credit of micro, small, and medium enterprises. The Microfinance Investment Support Facility for Afghanistan (MISFA) has initiated a series of activities, in particular the scaling up of the Targeting the Ultra Poor (TUP) program. The TUP program has been completed in four provinces (Balkh, Kunar, Laghman, and Takhar) and is ongoing in two more provinces (Kabul and Kandahar). A project restructuring is being initiated to extend the TUP program to two more provinces and to engage on important topics, including digital financial services.

Health: Bringing most of the efforts in public health service delivery under one umbrella in Afghanistan, the Sehatmandi (Health) Project aims to increase the utilization and quality of health, nutrition, and family planning services across Afghanistan. The project supports implementation of a Basic Package of Health Services and an Essential Package of Hospital Services through contracting arrangements across the country. Sehatmandi also supports efforts to strengthen the capacity of the Ministry of Public Health at central and provincial levels to effectively carry out its stewardship functions.

Health indicators saw an improvement with the support of the System Enhancement for Health Action in Transition Program, the precursor of the Sehatmandi Project. For example, the newborn mortality rate fell 32 percent from 53 to 36 per 1,000 live births from 2000 to 2015; the number of functioning health facilities increased from 496 in 2002 to more than 2,800 in 2018, while the proportion of facilities with female staff increased; and births attended by skilled health personnel among the lowest income quintile increased from 15.6 percent to 50.5 percent.

Horticulture and Livestock: The ARTF supported the National Horticulture and Livestock Project to promote the adoption of improved technologies by target farmers in the horticultural sector and to support the livestock sector, with gradual rollout of farmer-centric agricultural services systems and investment support. The project has financed the establishment of 16,750 hectares (ha) of new pistachio and fruit orchards in 32 provinces. In addition, over 90,000 ha of existing orchards have been rehabilitated and some 96,000 kitchen gardening schemes established.

The project has also supported construction of 1,037 small water harvesting structures, improving farmers resilience to weather changes by allowing harvest and storage of water during the rainy season and gradual release in the growing period based on crop needs. A total of 997 raisin drying houses has been constructed on a cost-sharing basis to reduce post-harvest losses of grapes and improve the quality of raisins produced.

Regarding livestock activities, NHLP continues to focus on key activities, including poultry production and animal health and extension services, while expanding work programs to other areas such as fishery and dairy. To date, the project has supported 122,840 farmers (78,968 women and 43,872 men), clustering them into producers groups to benefit from animal production and health services.

Irrigation: With over 85 percent of rural population relying on agriculture, irrigation remains a pressing need in rural Afghanistan. The Irrigation Restoration and Development Project (IRDP) envisages support to rehabilitate irrigation systems serving some 215,000 hectares of land and for the design of a limited number of small multi-purpose dams and related works, while establishing hydro-meteorological facilities and services. In the irrigation component, a total of 181 irrigation schemes has been rehabilitated, covering over 190,000 hectares of irrigation command area (compared to the end project target of 215,000 hectares and over 402,000 farmer households).

In the small dam component, a pre-feasibility review of 22 small dams resulted in a feasibility study being conducted on the six best ranked dams in the northern river basin (which is not on international rivers). In the hydro-met component, installation of 127 hydrological stations and 56 snow and meteorological stations located in various locations on the five river basins in the country is ongoing. In addition, 40 cableway stations for flow measurement at selected hydrology stations have been installed.

The Afghanistan On-Farm Water Management Project aims to improve agricultural productivity in project areas by enhancing the efficiency of water use. To date, land productivity of wheat and other crops has increased by 1520 percent. Water productivity of wheat and other crops increased 15 percent, and the irrigated area increased by 20 percent. Physical rehabilitation of irrigation schemes exceeded its target with good quality and within the project budget allocation and timeline: 207 irrigation schemes (mostly informal) have been rehabilitated, covering a total of 52,000 hectares of irrigation command area.

Rural Development: Improving access to basic services and facilities through secondary and tertiary roads, the Afghanistan Rural Access Project will increase the number of people living within two kilometers (km) of feeder roads and reduce travel time to essential services. To date, more than 2,000 km of rural roads and related drainage structures have been upgraded or rehabilitated through four projects under these programs financed through IDA, ARTF, and other funds.

Rural Enterprise: Since its inception, the Afghanistan Rural Enterprise Development Project (AREDP) has established 5,450 Savings Groups with a membership of some 61,460 rural poor (54 percent women) in 694 villages. The SGs have saved over $5.56 million and members have accessed more than 52,450 internal loans (65 percent by female members) for productive and emergency purposes with a repayment rate of 95 percent.

To generate economies of scale, 524 Village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs) have been established as federations of the SGs. The VSLAs maintain accurate and up-to-date records of accounts with a good governance structure in place. On average, each VSLA has $4,335 as loanable capital, which is further boosted with a seed grant injection. This improves access to finance for group members who would like to increase productivity or engage in entrepreneurial activities but cannot access such funds from commercial banks or microfinance institutions.

AREDP also works toward strengthening market linkages and value chains for rural enterprises by providing technical support to 1,338 Enterprise Groups (63 percent female) and 657 small and medium enterprises (15 percent female) that have been selected for their potential as key drivers of rural employment and income generation.

Social Service Delivery: The Citizens Charter Afghanistan Project (Citizens Charter) is the successor to the highly successful National Solidarity Programme (NSP), which introduced a community-driven development approach toward rural infrastructure and service delivery and reached about 35,000 communities over 14 years. The Citizens Charter supports the first phase of the Government of Afghanistans 10-year Citizens Charter National Program and will target one-third of the country. The Citizens Charter aims to improve the delivery of core infrastructure and social services to participating communities through strengthened Community Development Councils (CDCs). These services are part of a minimum service standards package that the government is committed to delivering to the citizens of Afghanistan.

Implementation progress includes:

In rural areas: Over 8,400 community profiles (CPs) completed; more than 8,150 new CDCs elected; over 6,900 Community Development Plans (CDPs) completed; and more than 5,700 sub-project proposals prepared.

In urban areas: Implementation has been rolled out in over 666 communities. A total of 633 CPs completed; 633 CDCs elected; 592 CDPs completed; and 509 sub-project proposals approved.

Results expected under the first phase of the Citizens Charter include: (i) 10 million Afghans reached; (ii) 3.4 million people gaining access to clean drinking water; (iii) improvements to quality of service delivery in health, education, rural roads, and electrification; (iv) increase in citizen satisfaction and trust in government; and (v) 35 percent return on investment for infrastructure projects.

Last Updated:Oct 02, 2018

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Afghanistan Overview - worldbank.org

Despite civilian deaths, U.S. says Afghanistan strategy is …

The Trump administration says their year-long effort to bring peace to Afghanistan by mobilizing regional support is working as planned even as civilian deaths skyrocket.

"We have an unprecedented opportunity for peace now," said Army Gen. John Nicholson, the outgoing commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan. Yet from January to July of this year there were 1,692 civilian deaths, according to the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan. This is a record-high casualty rate for the Afghan civilian population, with a greater number of deaths than at any comparable period of time since record keeping began 10 years ago.

The bloodshed did not end in July. Over the last month, the Afghan people have continued to be assaulted by terrorists: a Kabul school attack killed 40 students, the Taliban sought to take over the Afghan town of Ghazni leading to the death of more than 200 civilians, and at least 23 were killed in separate attacks on a mosque, government center and a center for midwives.

The Taliban continue to be an aggressive fighting force. There were three days of peace during a ceasefire that the Afghan government announced in June, to celebrate the end of Ramadan. But an attempt at a second ceasefire that the Afghan government proposed this week was unsuccessful, and the Taliban fired off rockets at the Presidential palace during President Ghani's speech celebrating the Muslim celebrations of Eid al-Adha. No one was injured, but Ghani chose to respond.

"If they are thinking the rocket attack will keep Afghans down, they are wrong," Ghani said as the rockets flew in his direction.

The Trump administration has not announced an exit timeline for the 15,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan. Instead, they are following a "conditions-based strategy," which means they will not be leaving until they are sure that the Afghan government, and military, is able to stand by itself.

On the campaign trail, President Trump consistently promised to bring home the Americans that have been on the ground in Afghanistan, indicating that his natural instinct is to leave sooner rather than later. There were some conversations within the Trump administration about handing the war over to Blackwater founder Erik Prince, who would privatize the war. The National Security Council says that option is no longer part of active discussions given the already-formed US strategy in Afghanistan. Mr. Trump himself, however, is more vague about what he wants to do about the war and what an exit strategy would look like.

"I'll do whatever I have to do. But I never respond to questions like that. Because, unlike previous administrations, I don't wanna talk about it. I want to win. I want to win at everything," Trump said when asked if he wanted to get the U.S. out of Afghanistan during an interview with CBS News Evening News Anchor Jeff Glor last month. "And that's what we're doing. And those are the things I'd like to talk about. We're winning at every front."

Yet the Taliban, which has never publicly voiced any support for the Afghan constitution, continues to seize territory and carry out violent attacks. It now controls more land than at any point since the 2002, when it was ousted from power. As a result, the U.S. and the Afghan government see drawing the Taliban to the table as a necessity in establishing a peaceful way forward for the war-ravaged country.

To that end, the State Department has built up its team to work on reconciliation with the Taliban. Their ultimate goal is to get them to the table with the Afghan government. U.S. officials have been working to get Taliban members to that table, according to US government officials.

The Taliban has been prevented from taking over two cities in the last few months, although they remain an aggressive presence. This week, Nicholson claimed that the Taliban's violence doesn't mean they won't sit down with the government. He claimed they are fighting to "increase their leverage in negotiation and to maintain their cohesion." He also encouraged those who are looking at the situation on the ground to "expand the aperture and look at the progress towards reconciliation."

Regional experts warn that without military defeat of the Taliban, it will be hard to get them to the table.

"The U.S. strategy hinges on demonstrating a long term commitment to Afghanistan, defeating the Taliban militarily, and forcing it to the negotiating table. Yet the Taliban has been anything but defeated militarily," writes Bill Roggio in Long War Journal, a project of hawkish Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "Failing to defeat the Taliban, the U.S. government has signaled to the Taliban that it is desperate for a negotiated settlement and wants to end the Afghan war."

Meanwhile Russia, which has been increasingly overt in its backing of the Taliban in Afghanistan, is getting even more involved in the conflict. Russian officials have invited the Taliban to Russia for talks in September and the Taliban has accepted. Afghan government officials will not attend, according to diplomats from the region. The Trump administration is rejecting the talks.

.As a matter of principle, we support Afghan-owned and led initiatives to advance a peace settlement in Afghanistan. Based on the previous meetings in the 'Moscow Format,' we believe this initiative is unlikely to yield any progress toward that end," said a State Department spokesperson.

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Despite civilian deaths, U.S. says Afghanistan strategy is ...

U.S. Embassy in Afghanistan

2 November, 2018 | Alert

Location:Kabul, Afghanistan Event:As of early November2018, there are reports that militants plan to conduct attacks using suicide attackers and/or vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) against

1 November, 2018 | News, Press Releases

Ambassador John R. Bass International Day to End Impunity for Crimes Against Journalists October 29, 2018 Thank you very much for joining us this

22 October, 2018 | Alert

Location: Kabul, Afghanistan Event: The U.S. Embassy in Kabul reminds U.S. citizens that the security environment in Afghanistan is unsafe. The Travel Advisory for Afghanistan<

18 October, 2018 | News, Press Releases

On-the-Record Remarks by U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan John Bass at a Roundtable with Afghan Media October 17, 2018 Ambassador Bass:Colleagues, Salaam Alaikum! Sha Raaghlast, Khosh

11 October, 2018 | Alert

Security Alert U.S. Embassy Kabul, Afghanistan (October 11, 2018) Location:Kabul, Afghanistan Event:Afghanistan is scheduled to conduct Parliamentary elections on October 20. While the government is

11 September, 2018 | News, Press Releases

The United States strongly condemns the series of attacks today in Nangarhar province which took the lives of many Afghans, including children. These attacks, several

6 September, 2018 | Press Releases

The United States strongly condemns yesterdays terrible attack at a sports center in Kabulwhich took the lives of many young people. We honor the brave

20 August, 2018 | Messages for U.S. Citizens

U.S. Embassy Kabul Routine Message for U.S. Citizens: Consular Section Closure in Observance of Eid al Qurban August 20, 2018 The Consular Section at

20 August, 2018 | Press Releases

STATEMENT BY SECRETARYPOMPEO On Afghan Governments Ceasefire Announcement August 19, 2018 The United States welcomes the announcement by the Afghan government of a

19 August, 2018 | Press Releases

Statement by Ambassador Bass on Afghanistans Independence Day On behalf of everyone at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul, I want to wish Afghanistan a Happy

19 August, 2018 | Press Releases

Statement by Secretary POMPEO Afghanistan Independence Day On behalf of President Trump and the American people, I warmly congratulate the Afghan people as they celebrate

1 August, 2018 | Press Releases

The United States strongly condemns yesterdays vicious attack in Jalalabad on the provincial Refugee Department, and the attacks that Jalalabad has experienced recently. We extend

18 July, 2018 | News, Press Releases

Ambassador John R. Bass returned from his first visit to Mazar-e-Sharif yesterday after a day of meetings with local officials, civil society members, and NATO

13 July, 2018 | Alert

Security Alert U. S. Embassy Kabul, Afghanistan (July 13, 2018) Location: Kabul, Afghanistan Event: The U.S. Embassy in Kabul advises U.S. citizens that insurgent

9 July, 2018 | News, Press Releases

Press Availability Michael R. Pompeo Secretary of State Kabul, Afghanistan July 9, 2018 PRESIDENT GHANI: (Inaudible.) In the name of God, the Compassionate, the Merciful.

1 July, 2018 | News, Press Releases

Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Bureau of South and CentralAsian Affairs Alice Wells visited Kabul June 30-July 1 to meet with Afghan and international

21 June, 2018 | News

Vice President Mike Pence spoke with President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan by phone today. The two leaders discussed the security situation in Afghanistan, including the

16 June, 2018 | News, Press Releases

Press Statement Mike Pompeo Secretary of State Washington, DC June 16, 2018 The United States extends its best wishes to the people of Afghanistan in

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U.S. Embassy in Afghanistan

66 Interesting Facts About Afghanistan – The Fact File

Last updated on March 16th, 2018

Afghanistan, officially the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, is a landlocked country located in South Asia and Central Asia. Afghanistan is famous for its pomegranates in Asia. Lets explore more about this war-torn country with some interesting facts.

1. Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan is its largest city.

2. Afghanistan is a landlocked country. Iran, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and China border Afghanistan from all sides.

3. The people of Afghanistan are called Afghans and their currency is Afghanis. Most of the time, people get confused between the use of these two terms.

4. Agriculture is the main source of income for Afghans. Afghanistan is also rich in natural resources like natural gas and oil.

5. Buzkashi is Afghanistans national game. Players in two teams try to catch a goat while riding a horse. This game is being played for centuries and is a tough sport.

6. Afghanistan became independent on August 19, 1919. They fought three wars with Britain after which they declared themselves independent. They were not directly ruled by the British but their foreign affairs were influenced by the United Kingdom.

7. Afghanistan has been in news more than any country in the last decade.

8. New Year is celebrated by Afghans on 21st March. They call it Nawroz. It is a pre-Islamic festival which is celebrated by a gathering of thousands of travelers from across Afghanistan to the city of Mazar-e-Sharif. There is a mosque in the center of the city. It is known as the Blue Mosque or the Shrine of Hazrat Ali the cousin and son-in-law of the Islamic prophet Muhammad (P.B.U.H).

9. Mobile phone coverage is available in more than 90% of the country. Mobile phones are status symbols.

10. They celebrate poetry night on Thursdays in the western city of Herat. People of all age groups gather there to share modern and ancient verses of poetry and indulge in some nice food along with some sweet tea.

11. Alexander the Great captured the city of Herat in 330BC and built its ancient citadel. Alexander had a son with a beautiful woman from the province of Balkh in Afghanistan.

12. Arnold Schwarzenegger is the poster boy in many of the muscle building centers in Afghanistan. They say he (Arnold Schwarzenegger) looks like an Afghan.

13. Kandahar airfield was oncethe busiest single-runway airstrip in the world when it handled 1,700 to 5,000 flights a week. Here NATO installed its first complete air traffic capability in a non-NATO country.

14. Worlds largest Buddhas (two of these) were first built in Afghanistan. These statues were destroyed by the Taliban in 2001.

15. The worlds first oil paintings were drawn in the caves of Bamiyan around 650BC.

16. There is only one Jewish person living in Afghanistan. His name is Zablon Simintov and he is a restaurateur and an Afghan carpet trader. He was born in 1959.

17. There has been 300% increase in Opium cultivation in Afghanistan in 2013 when compared to the last seven years before the U.S. invasion.Afghanistan was once the largest producer of cannabis.

18. Afghanistan has been a war-torn country for decades and has been under the military influence of many powers including Soviet, British, Mongols, Muslim Arabs, Mauryas, Alexandra the Great, and in the recent times under western powers.

19.Afghanistan is estimated to be inhabited by humans at least 50,000 years ago.

20. Arab Muslims spread the religion of Islam in Afghanistan in 642 CE in Herat and Zarang. They recognized Afghanistan as Al Hind (due to Afghanistans proximity to India.)

21. Buddhism and Zoroastrianism were dominant religions in Afghanistan before the introduction of Islam.

22. Genghis Khan and his Mongol army spread rapidly in Afghanistan in 1219 AD.

Read: some key facts about Mongolia and Genghis Khan

23. Ahmad Shah Durrani, also known as the Father of the Nation,is the founder of the last Afghan empire. He was crowned in 1747. He consolidated the country from principalities and fragmented provinces into one kingdom.

24. After the death of Ahmad Shah Durrani in 1772, his son, Timur Shah succeeded him.

25. In 1776, Timur Shah transferred the capital of Afghanistan from Kandahar to Kabul.

26. A civil war took place in the country between 1992 and 1996, and it is estimated that at least 50,000 people died in the country in mujahidin infightings during the civil war.

27. The Taliban (a Sunni Islamic fundamentalist political movement in Afghanistan) also ruled the country for almost 5 years between 1996 and 2001.

28. In 2004, Hamid Karzai became the first democratically elected president of Afghanistan.

29. After the September 2011 attack on the United States allegedly carried by the Osama Bin Ladens Al Qaeda forces, a U.S and U.K coalition launched a military attack on the major cities of Afghanistan including Kabul, against the Taliban regime.

30. The termAfghanistan translates to the land of Afghans.

31. Afghanistan is also the land of many historical sites. And it is the 40th most populous country in the world.

32. Afghanistans location on the silk route gave it various economic and cultural advantages.

33. Afghanistan is considered as the place of origin of the religion Zoroastrianism.

34. Pashto, one of the two official languages of Afghanistan, was declared the national language of Afghanistan during the beginning of the reign of Zahir Shah.

35. Dari (Persian), the other official language was always used for government and business purposes.

36. An estimated 35% of the population of the country speaks Pashto while 50% of the population speaks Dari.

37. Today, as Islam is a dominant religion in Afghanistan, the culture is heavily influenced by the religion of peace and monotheism.

38. In Afghanistan, most of the shops and businesses are closed on Friday, which is the Islamic holy day.

39. The legal, political, economic and personal lives of the Afghans is governed by Islamic laws.

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66 Interesting Facts About Afghanistan - The Fact File

Afghanistan war: 16 years, thousands dead and no clear … – CNN

US President Donald Trump was due to make an announcement Monday evening about his plans for the future of America's commitment in Afghanistan. Analysts believe that whatever he decides, there will be no swift end to the conflict.

The United States first invaded Afghanistan on October 7, 2001, as part of Operation Enduring Freedom.

The Bush administration accused the country's then Taliban government of sheltering al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden, who had masterminded the previous month's September 11 terrorist attacks.

The Taliban offered to hand over Bin Laden for trial, but only to a third country, rather than directly to the United States. Washington refused the offer and launched air and ground attacks, joined shortly thereafter by US allies.

Although al Qaeda was quickly pushed out of Afghanistan, and the Taliban government easily removed by the end of 2001, the war dragged on.

"The focus shifted from Afghanistan to Iraq -- that was a major strategic error," Rodger Shanahan, research fellow at Sydney's Lowy Institute West Asia Program, told CNN.

"You can't fight two wars simultaneously in those two complex environments. So you could say it was an opportunity lost."

The new US President poured troops into the country -- at one point there were as many as 100,000 --- but by the time the troops started to withdraw in late 2011, the Taliban, though diminished, remained undefeated, and began once again to grow.

Now, in 2017, with fewer than 10,000 US troops left in in Afghanistan, mostly working as trainers, the war continues to drag on into its 16th consecutive year, with no end in sight.

And so the question arises, if the war has become seemingly unwinnable, why doesn't the United States just leave?

Shanahan said one of the reasons is Washington wants to avoid leaving a free space in Afghanistan for terrorists to plan and execute attacks, such as existed in the lead-up to the September 11, 2001, attacks.

"You need to destroy that safe-haven element and as part of that strategic aim, you want to build Afghan governance so that it can control the areas it supposedly has sovereignty over," he said.

"So ultimately, if you achieve the second aim, you achieve the first."

Hameed Hakimi, research associate at the London-based Chatham House Asia Program, said the US military only wanted one thing. "The military side in Afghanistan would tell you they don't want all these years to have been wasted," he said.

There was a sense of optimism in Kabul around Trump, said Hakimi, who visited Kabul earlier this year. "There was an expectation that he will do things a bit different from Obama. There was a sense in Afghanistan that (Obama) is overcautious, he's slow," he said.

A new President though does not necessarily translate into new solutions.

Shanahan said defeating an insurgency through force alone is incredibly difficult.

"They have safe areas they can transition in and out of and if you have adjoining areas that give you freedom of action, it makes it virtually impossible to wipe out an insurgency," he said.

The Taliban, he said, "can drop over the border into neighboring Pakistan and wait out whatever surge comes your way."

Michael Kugelman, deputy director and senior associate for South Asia with the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center, said Trump's options were limited. "This much is clear -- there are no good options in Afghanistan," he said.

Trump can't hope to "win," he said. "The best we can hope for is some type of negotiated end to the war, but it's hard to imagine the US, Afghanistan, or any other stakeholder offering incentives that are sufficiently enticing to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table. The Taliban is scoring big victories on the battlefield. Why would it want to quit when it's ahead?"

But Hakimi said there is a divide within the Taliban now between the older leaders, who remember the days when they were in power, and the hot-headed young fighters.

"You might be able to quite successfully reconcile a bunch of old men -- they've been in the business 20 years -- but it's a different story when you talk about a young man with a gun," he said.

All agreed a surge of US troops onto the front line would be no solution at all.

"You can't simply end it by pounding these people," Hakimi said.

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Afghanistan war: 16 years, thousands dead and no clear ... - CNN