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WASHINGTON - While the government of President Ashraf Ghani downplays the repercussions of a potential $1 billion cut in U.S. aid to Afghanistan, ordinary Afghans and experts warn the country is not in a position to withstand such a financial blow as it struggles with ongoing political instability that threatens the countrys peace process and growing fears of a COVID-19 outbreak.

A $1 billion cut in U.S. aid would be a significant blow to the country. Afghanistans GDP is only about $20 billion per year, and much of that comes from international donations, Johnathan Schroden, an expert on Afghanistan and director of Stability and Development Program at Washington-based think tank Center for Naval Analysis (CAN), told VOA.

Secretary Pompeo has made clear that the U.S. would prioritize continued support to Afghanistans security forces, but U.S. civilian-sector assistance to Afghanistan is about $500 million this year, so even if they zeroed that out, to reach $1 billion would still require a $500 million cut to military aid, Schroden said.

He said if the U.S. cuts aid to Afghanistan, its NATO allies will likely follow suit, creating a compounding effect.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made a surprise visit to Afghanistan this week to help resolve the political impasse between President Ghani and his election rival and former chief executive officer, Abdullah Abdullah. Both declared themselves winners in the contested presidential election last year.

Pompeo expressed U.S. disappointment over the failure of the leaders to form a government.

The United States is disappointed in them and what their conduct means for Afghanistan and our shared interests, Pompeo said in a strongly worded statement after his departure from Kabul.

Their failure has harmed U.S.-Afghan relations and, sadly, dishonors those Afghan, American and coalition partners who have sacrificed their lives and treasure in the struggle to build a new future for this country, he said.

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Ghanis reaction

While expressing gratitude for continued U.S. assistance to Afghanistan, Ghani, reacting Tuesday to the potential cut in U.S. aid, said it would not have direct impact on key sectors.

In order to compensate for the cut in U.S. aid [to Afghanistan], I will conduct an overall assessment of our budget and will report to you as soon as possible, Ghani said. However, in the meantime, I can assure you that reduction in U.S. aid will not have a direct impact on our key sectors."

But Shukria Barakzai, Afghanistans former ambassador to Norway, said the U.S. statement has a message.

"The statement has a clear message that is more serious than the economic assistance, and that is a political one. If the U.S. stops supporting the current political system, I think that would be the worst-case scenario for Afghanistan, Barakzai said.

Matt Dearing, an assistant professor at Washington-based National Defense University, seconds Barakzais concerns and charges that the cut in aid poses serious risks for the country.

At a time where Afghan domestic politics are at their worst, an aid cut is incredibly risky and could break the country in two, Dearing said.

We should remember that it is was not the withdrawal of Soviet troops that led to the fall of the Afghan government [1989], rather the end of aid in 1992, he added.

Alternative resources

Ghani said his government will try to fill the vacuum with the help of alternative resources.

Javid Ahmad, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said he thinks the Afghan government will tap into the countrys cash reserve while trying to find a solution to end the political crisis and reverse Washingtons decision.

More immediately, the countrys $8 billion cash reserves and cutbacks in security expenditures are likely to provide short-term support as Afghan leaders make another attempt to break the political impasse, permitting the U.S. to reverse the decision, Ahmad said.

Ahmad warned that if the U.S. proceeds with it is decision, the potential slash in U.S. aid will cut into the military aid Washington has been providing Afghanistan to support its security sector.

The cutback, still under review, is unlikely to affect the basic functions of the Afghan government, but it will exact a toll on the security sector that consumes the bulk of the Afghan budget, he added.

Ordinary Afghans

Meanwhile, ordinary Afghans are worried that the loss of $1 billion in U.S. assistance would have a direct impact on their lives.

If this $1 billion that the U.S. gives to Afghanistan is reduced, it would not have any effects on Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani. But ordinary people would suffer, Ainullah Attal, a Kabul resident, told VOA.

Our leaders, Abdullah Abdullah and Dr. Ashraf Ghani, should sit with each other and make peace for the people, country and Gods sake, Abdullah Jan, another Kabul resident, told VOA.

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Ghani and Abdullah shared power in the contested presidential elections of 2014 following months of a political crisis that almost took the country to the brink of civil war before former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry helped broker a deal that led to the creation of the National Unity Government (NUG).

Both Afghan leaders vowed not to compromise politically this time, despite Pompeos visit.

"In the current situation, reducing that much money is a great loss [for Afghanistan]. But there is no alternative; President Ghani has made some promises during his reelection campaign. One of those promises was that he wont be making a power-sharing government, Kabir Ranjbar, a political analyst and former member of Afghan parliament, told VOA.

Ghanis rival, Abdullah, has not publicly said that his team would consider a similar arrangement but has shown a willingness to negotiate.

Ghani said Tuesday that he has offered Abdullah a key role in the ongoing peace talks with the Taliban and Cabinet positions to his allies but charged that Abdullahs demands of changing the constitution were beyond his authority.

Impact on peace talks

There is growing frustration among Afghans over the ongoing political impasse between the two leaders will add to the growing fears of a COVID-19 outbreak in the country and have an impact on the ongoing peace talks with the Taliban.

If Dr. Abdullah and Dr. Ashraf Ghani were on good terms with each other, we would have the intra-Afghan talks started, Shah Wazir Tarakhil, a member of the Afghan parliament, told VOA.

On his way to Qatar to meet with representatives of the Taliban, Pompeo told reporters the U.S. was committed to the peace deal with the Taliban.

We are proceeding with the conditions-based withdrawal of our forces in accordance with the U.S.-Taliban agreement, Pompeo said. The United States remains convinced that a political settlement is the only solution to the conflict.

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The war in Afghanistan has claimed the lives of more than 2,400 U.S. service members and cost the U.S.nearly $1 trillion.

VOAs Rahim Gul Sarwan from Kabul and Cindy Saine from Washington contributed to this report.

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Experts: $1 Billion Cut in US Aid to Afghanistan Will Have Serious Implications - VOA News

DISCLAIMERThe opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views ofThe Khaama Press News Agency.We welcome opinions and submissions to Khaama Press Opinions/Exclusives Please email them toinfo@khaama.com.

To become a nation, Afghanistanhas three core blind spots, and as long as these three problems are not covered,it is impossible for us to become a nation, have a meaningful government andenjoy our political and social rights like other countries.

A handful of people run Afghanistan while the average public always finds themselves oppressed. However, to get out of this situation, they do nothing or their actions are always arisen out of ethnic, sectarian, religious or linguistic affiliations and dependence. One notable example is the Wolesi Jirga and the Meshrano Jirga representatives, who do not represent their constituents in real terms. Most of the Upper and Lower House representatives work as Afghans call commission workers, who the ministers have to bribe to get the vote of approval or confidence. These representatives have failed their constituents several times, but the latter still supports them. The elections of 2014 and 2019 are no exception. Such a situation implies that we have a majority ignorant, minority treacherous problem. Ignorance does not mean that our people do not know or are unaware, but that they are so engrossed in dependency chains that they neglect prosperity as a nation. Until we do not sacrifice the Is and the Wes for the nation, the minority treacherous will always rule us.

Japan gained its freedom along with Afghanistan. The atomic bombing of the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki not only destroyed the infrastructure and killed a large number of human resources but also resulted in a generation of slow learners. To tackle the problems, the country appointed an intelligent kid to help train every nine slow learners, and work as the Niners teacher and leader. The teachers worked voluntarily for a long time, too.

Today, Japan is one of thedeveloped countries of the world and Afghanistan cannot be compared to Japan. Unfortunately,Afghanistan uses the reverse case. In our country, nine smart leaders are ledby someone who has failed as a follower. This weak follower or slow learnerin all areas of life reduces the speed, efficiency and effectiveness of thenine smart leaders. You must have noticed that our young Fulbrighters and Chevenersworking under such slow learners in civilian, military, nonprofit andnonprofit institutions

I find it extremely funny thatyoung leaders with good educational and working backgrounds are hired and latertold what to do instead of being asked what needs to be done. Both the leadersand followers are happy in such an arrangement while no positive change is observedin anyones life including the country. It is high time that we permanentlydistance these weak followers from the political, social, and economic scenes andmake way for mainstream leaders or obligate the slow learners tolearn from smart leaders.

According to a recent study, Afghanistan is one of the countries that top the list of Islamic countries in performing prayer. But does such an achievement represent the knowledge of Islam amongst Afghans? If the Afghan practices are properly studied, we will realize that our knowledge of Islam is minimal. Most of our government leaders take an oath of serving the people on the Quran, but we are still one of the most corrupt countries in the world. Islam requires that we treat women well in our family and community, but we use them as tools and we do not consider them more than cooks, cleaners, concubines and incubines. Islam entitles women to their fathers heritage, but most Afghans deprive them of their heritage, including the very fathers. Unfortunately, in an almost 100 percent Muslim state, women do not have physical and mental safety. The teachers and Mullahs, who should carry on the Prophets legacy, (sexually) abuse children. Islam says suicide and killing of innocent are forbidden. However, a group of people sees it as a means of warfare and achievement of their goals, marking divine prohibition null and void and the list is long, but we will suffice with these examples.

Our religious naivet has been the byproduct of little knowledge of Islam. You can literally do anything by using an Afghans religious naivet. Tens of Afghans can flock to a mosque in a crowded place and storm an unknown lady to death because she has allegedly burned the Quran. This is amongst very dangerous character traits that blind an Afghan of the fact that s/he is not a judge, the Supreme Court, aMufti,etc. Like it has always happened, a shrewd religious scholar can misuse the teachings of the Quran and Hadith however he wants to carry out his own agenda. Since conflict has been the recipe so far, Afghans religious naivety has caused several conflicts throughout history. The abdication of King Amanullah Khan by Habibullah Kalakani and the Taliban regime as a whole are two examples. Arabic, Quranic interpretation,Tajweed,Hadith,Siret-ul-Nabi and a host of other important religioussubjects need to be taught more comprehensively at school levels so that Afghan children are equipped with proper religious education upon graduation and not fall prey to extremism.

Nasrat Esmaty has a Master of Arts Degree in Poverty and Development from the Institute of Development Studies in the UK and an Associate Degree in Liberal Arts & Sciences from San Joaquin Delta College in the U.S. He is the author of Blue Blood Mirage on the Other Side of Illusion and constantly writes or blogs on development issues with a focus on gender poverty.

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The Three Blind Spots of Leadership in Afghanistan - The Khaama Press News Agency

The authorities in North of Afghanistan confirmed that four members of a single family lost their lives in a brawl which turned into an armed clash over the hunting of ducks.

Mohammad Farooq, the Director of the Crimianl Investigation Department of Parwan, confirmed to Salaam Watandar that the incident and said four members of a family lost their lives and another was wounded during the clash.

Farooq further added that the incident took place before noon on Saturday, at around 10:00 am, in Balto Khel area of the provincial capital of Parwan.

He also added that the police forces arrested two people in connection with the deadly clash and an investigation is underway.

The Balto Khel Village and Sayad are the main hunting places for the birds in northern Parwan province of Afghanistan.

The Khaama Press News Agency is the leading and largest English news service for Afghanistan with over 3 million hits a month.Independent authors/columnists and experts are welcomed to contribute stories, opinions and editorials. Send stories to news@khaama.com.

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4 members of a family killed as duck hunting turns deadly in North of Afghanistan - The Khaama Press News Agency

An agreement reached between the Taliban and the US only recently is, perhaps, the most crucial first step in bringing peace to Afghanistan. Regardless of what the future holds, it is clear to every stakeholder that there is no alternative but a negotiated end to the war. An important question remains: Will this agreement and the subsequent withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan lay the foundation for sustainable peace? The answer is neither a clear-cut no nor a definite yes. The hopes for a durable peace depend on how events unfold in the coming days. Nevertheless, many actors and factors will also be crucial to peace in Afghanistan.

First and foremost, the US needs to realise that the key to peace in Afghanistan is next door in Pakistan. Pakistans clout with the Taliban is no secret. Its support and commitment to any peace plan are essential. So far, Pakistan has supported the US and facilitated peace talks with the Taliban like a good ally. The US will have to ensure that it continues to do so. The US will, therefore, need to offer Pakistan some incentive to raise its stakes in a peaceful and stable Afghanistan. A free-trade deal with Pakistan would be a good incentive.

Besides, trust-building is yet another factor crucial to the success of the peace deal. The peace agreement, if followed by both sides, will lead to immediate cessation of violence. The US will halt its operations and the Taliban will put an end to their attacks as well. There will also be joint counter-terrorism efforts between the Taliban and the US against Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. While this sounds good in theory, this mechanism will only work if there is genuine goodwill on both sides. The US has, for the past two decades, confounded the Taliban with Al-Qaeda.

It has fought them both, making no distinction among the two. Thus, if the US is to work with the Taliban, it will have to gain their trust. The same goes for the Taliban. The parties will have to partake in confidence-building measures, which may range from political concessions in government formation to releasing each others prisoners. The US will have to tread lightly on this path. It will have to foster a better working relationship with the Taliban without giving away concessions that may undo some critical gains, such as womens rights and education.

Furthermore, intra-Afghan negotiations will be a painful and nerve-wracking process. Post troop withdrawal, the Afghan Government and the Taliban will have to negotiate with each other and figure out a way to share power. Agreement between these parties will help dispel the notion that the Afghan government is a US puppet. It will also give Afghans more voice in governing their own country. However, there remains a significant risk of civil war. And it is no secret that the Afghan National Security Forces are not competent enough to take on the Taliban. Thus, the US will have to be watchful and reserve the right to make changes to its troop withdrawal timeline.

Many commentators oppose the current peace process. They say that the Taliban will not honour this agreement and only use the troop withdrawal to their advantage. These critics advocate the continued use of military force against the Taliban. Yet the US has actively fought the Taliban for two decades, and the Taliban insurgency continues to grow stronger. Military operations against the Taliban serve as a recruiting poster for them. Furthermore, the ratio of civilian deaths from the US and Afghan forces operations is as high as civilian deaths caused by the Taliban. Continued military intervention in Afghanistan will be counter-productive.

A peace agreement may or may not work. But it is worth trying, nonetheless. It is a lesson of history that the worlds most protracted conflicts come to an end, not through military solution but political engagements. The Colombian Peace Deal is the most recent example. Afghanistan has now been in conflict for more than four decades. Many generations have come and gone during this conflict; many future ones will suffer a similar fate if this agreement doesnt work. It is time for all parties in this conflict to stop viewing Afghanistan through the barrel of a gun. They should see it from a human perspective and give peace a chance.

Samey Noor

The writer is a graduate student at George Washington University. He can be reached at samey@gwmail.gwu.edu.

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The Afghanistan conundrum - The Nation

As the world is in the throes of the COVID-19 pandemic, in South Asia, Afghanistan is especially vulnerable because it shares a 921-km open border with Iran. The Republic of Iran is one of the worst-affected nations in the world by the coronavirus.

As of today (March 28, 2020) Iran has registered 15,315 active cases of coronavirus with 2,234 persons dead, and counting. In Afghanistan, the number of coronavirus cases has seen a steady increase. Out of the approximately 800 suspected cases, there are now 110 positive cases and four deaths. With an epidemic at its borders, Afghanistans weakened public healthcare system faces its gravest challenge.

Thousands of Afghan refugees are returning from Iran every day in overloaded taxis, buses and minivans into the chaos of rudimentary health screenings at the border crossing. According to the International Organisation for Migration, more than 115,000 Afghans returned from Iran just between March 8 and 21. This marked the highest rate of returning immigrants from Iran in over a decade.

The Islam Qala-Dougharoun is the most-used border crossing point, connecting the cities of Herat, Afghanistan and Mashhad, Iran. According to the agency, even if the border crossing were to be closed, Afghans who wanted to get home could easily find a way, given how porous the border is.

Given this massive influx from one of the worst-affected countries in the world, the city of Herat, with nearly 300,000 people, has become the epicentre of the virus in Afghanistan. Till March 26, it had over 65 confirmed virus cases in Afghanistan. Kabul, with seven active cases, is the second most affected city.

Also read: Lockdown in London: The Demise of What the Neoliberal City Has Made Us Accustomed To

The first casualty from COVID-19 in Afghanistan was reported from Balkh, thereafter three casualties were all from Herat. Four NATO members whose nationalities have been withheld have also tested positive for COVID-19 in Afghanistan. By March 26, the death toll from COVID-19 has gone up to four, with another 55-year-old man dying in Herat.

According to medical journal Lancet, the first case of COVID-19 in Afghanistan came from Iran. In early February a 35-year-old male Afghan shopkeeper visited Qom, Iran where he stayed for nearly a week and home to Herat on February 15, 2020. The very next day, he began to display the initial symptoms of COVID 19 fever, headache, cough and dyspnea. At the private clinic which he visited for his initial checkup, he was suspected of having contracted COVID-19 as he had recently returned from Iran and he was referred to the governmental hospital for further investigation.

The confirmed diagnosis was made three days after admission. Seventeen days from admission, the patient was in good health and a molecular test was done again with a negative result. All individuals who had been in close contact with the patient were quarantined at home, and accommodations and vehicles related to the patient were disinfected.

One of the biggest challenges that healthcare givers are facing is the detection of COVID-19 in asymptomatic patients. In order to circumvent the substantial chains of transmission throughout Afghanistan, it is essential that a complete lockdown be enforced in the provinces bordering Iran. In Herat province, people have been disturbingly cavalier towards the spread of coronavirus, attending a buzkashi match, prayer meetings, visiting markets and celebrating during the Persian new year festival of Nowruz (March 21-22).

In a bid to curb the spread of the coronavirus, a new 100-bed hospital is being hurriedly built in Herat. In a country where health services can only be described as fragile, an unchecked community outbreak of coronavirus will mean that half of Afghanistans estimated 32 to 34 million people could contract the virus, and that more than 110,000 may die. Given this grave situation, on March 25, 2020 Afghan authorities locked down the western province of Herat bordering Iran. A curfew has now been imposed in the three provinces bordering Iran Herat, Farah and Nimroz. And from today, a lockdown will be applied in Kabul and its provincial districts.

Amidst crippling sanctions, Iran is unable to access medical aid and equipment. Tehran has rejected the humanitarian assistance offered by Washington, and instead in a message directed at Washington Ayatollah Khameini charged, No one trusts you. You are capable of bringing into our country a drug that will keep the virus alive and prevent its eradication.

In response to Afghanistans and Irans cases, Pakistan closed its border at Chaman with Afghanistan, starting on March 2. Then on March 21, Pakistan reopened the Chaman-Spinboldak border. Apparently a decision taken on humanitarian grounds, there are apprehensions as Pakistan witnessed a rise in coronavirus cases after pilgrims from Iran entered the country via the Taftan border.

Also read: To Combat the COVID-19 Crisis, We Need to Respond With a Unity of Purpose

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Pakistan has jumped to 1,106. Reports indicate that the Pakistan army has started to move COVID-19 positive patients from Punjab province to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Gilgit Baltistan. Locals in Muzaffarabad and Mirpur are protesting the setting up of quarantine centres in an area where there are hardly any healthcare facilities.

In this situation, Indias has played a decisive role in forming a joint strategy to fight COVID-19 in the SAARC region and initiating a SAARC Corona Emergency Fund with a contribution of $10 million. India evacuated nearly 400 of its citizens from Iran between March 10 and 15. When Iran refused to screen Indians stranded in the country for coronavirus, India dispatched a temporary lab, medicines, doctors, healthcare workers and medical personnel to Iran for testing, screening the people for coronavirus, evacuating Indians and foreign nationals from there and later announcing to donate the lab to Iran.

For Afghanistan, which is in the midst of an internal dissension, with both Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah claiming to be presidents, a violent Islamic State attack on the Sikh community, talks with the Taliban and withdrawal of $1 billion American aid, a mass outbreak of the virus would be cataclysmic.

The pandemic calls for a large-scale response. As the traditional security provider in the region, India must too be at forefront in the battle against COVID-19, by coordinating a platform to ensure sustained funding and delivery of diagnostics and treatments.

Vaishali Basu Sharma has worked as a consultant with the National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS) for several years. She is, at present, associated with the think tank Policy Perspectives Foundation.

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Afghanistans Open Border With Iran Leaves it Vulnerable to COVID-19 - The Wire