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China's relationship with the Taliban has undergone a dramatic transformation since their initial rise in the 1990s. Initially hesitant, China's engagement with the Taliban has steadily increased, culminating in a complex dance of pragmatism and opportunity following the American withdrawal in 2021. Chinese diplomats visiting Kabul, view the American withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover as the beginning of a new era of independent development and a transition from chaos to order.

This article delves into the evolving dynamics of the China-Taliban relationship, the gradual recognition of the Taliban, and the question that it poses to the West.

Shifting Sands: China's Priorities in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan

China's core interests in Afghanistan remain constant despite the Taliban regime's return to power. These interests can be categorized into three pillars: connectivity, security, and access to resources such as minerals, oil, and gas.

China views Afghanistan as a crucial link in its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) a global infrastructure development strategy. In 2016, China and Afghanistan agreed on BRI integration. This is a position the Taliban regime has endorsed. China seeks to extend BRI westward through Central Asia, leveraging the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and Gwadar Port. This expansion promises infrastructure development, resource extraction, market access, and a gateway to the lucrative Central Asian region. In August 2023, Taliban regime Deputy Prime Minister Maulawi Abdul Kabir affirmed their support for the BRI and "practical cooperation" with China. Acting Commerce Minister Haji Nooruddin Azizi echoed this sentiment in October 2023, seeking inclusion in BRI and CPEC discussions during the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing.

A critical security concern for China is the presence of the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) within Afghanistan. China views ETIM as a separatist threat to its BRI projects in South and Central Asia and has repeatedly urged the Taliban to crack down on the group's activities. China's foreign ministrys April 2023 statement on Afghanistan urges more decisive action against terrorism, including the ETIM, and emphasizes the safety of Chinese citizens. It calls for increased counter-terrorism cooperation and international support to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a haven for terrorists. In May 2023, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang met with Taliban Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, emphasizing the need for Afghanistan to fulfill its commitment to fighting terrorism and guaranteeing the safety of Chinese personnel and institutions.

China facilitates trilateral talks with Afghanistan and Pakistan, promoting regional stability and cooperation. These high-level meetings aim to prevent any souring of relations between the Taliban and Pakistan, especially regarding the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and cross-border activities that could threaten BRIand CPEC.

In 2013, China owned 79% of the foreign investment in Afghanistan. However, the pace of Chinese investment slowed afterward, as disagreement arose over the terms of the Aynak Copper Mine that was signed in 2008. Following the Taliban takeover of the country in 2021, Chinese business people rushed to Kabul in search of mining and other business opportunities. The influx of Chinese entrepreneurs to Afghanistan was dubbed the gold rush by Al Jazeera. The rush was so significant that the Chineseembassy in Afghanistanwarned companies and citizens against blindly visiting the country in search of mineral resources due to the Ministry of Mines and Petroleums extremely strict standards for issuing extraction permits. Nevertheless, in January 2023, the Taliban signed a $540 million contract to extract oil from northern Afghanistans Amu Darya basin. In April of the same year, the Taliban Ministry of Mines and Petroleum announced that a Chinese company was interested in investing $10 Billion in Lithium and another rare earth mineral.

In November 2022, China officially revived the Pine Nut Air Corridor, resulting in exports of over 1,000 tons to China. Furthermore, in December 2022, China implemented zero tariffs on 98% of Afghan products. Restarting work on the Aynak Copper Mine in Logar and securing new oil and gas extraction contracts in the Amu Darya basin exemplify China's keen interest in resource extraction.

China actively seeks economic opportunities in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. Resource-hungry industries drive China's push to integrate Afghanistan into BRI and CPEC projects. However, security concerns, particularly counter-terrorism, necessitate cooperation with the Taliban regime, prompting Beijing's engagement with them.

The Evolving Dynamics: China, Russia, and the West

While China hasn't formally recognized the Taliban government, it has taken significant steps in that direction. They received the Taliban ambassador and allowed them to control Afghanistans embassy in Beijing. In September 2023, China's new ambassador presented credentials to the acting Taliban Prime Minister. On Tuesday, January 30th, China's President Xi Jinping received ambassadorial credentials from the Taliban envoy to Beijing appointed by the interim Taliban administration.

China's pragmatic approach to its relationship with the Taliban reflects a desire to secure its interests, but formal recognition remains a calculated decision. Official recognition could legitimize the Taliban regime, influence the decisions of other nations, and strengthen China's influence in Afghanistan. Conversely, withholding official recognition may be a strategic choice to avoid appearing as the first nation to legitimize the Taliban's oppressive policies toward women and non-Pashtun ethnic groups. For the Taliban, having China's support carries significant political, economic, and strategic benefits, potentially including Chinese investments and the use of China's veto power at the UN Security Council to block sanctions and resolutions against them.

Like China, Russia has allowed the Taliban to manage Afghanistans embassy in Moscow. However, the Russia-Taliban relationship appears less cordial. For example, in April 2023, Russia held regional consultations for peace in Afghanistan, excluding the Taliban, while inviting other regional actors. Unlike China, which commits itself to the principle of non-interference and not commenting on the Taliban regime's domestic policies, Russian officials statements urge the Taliban to form ethnically and gendered inclusive governments. Additionally, the horrific terrorist attack on the Crocus concert hall in Moscow, claimed by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) active in Afghanistan, strained relations.

Unlike China and Russia, the United States and the European Union have not allowed the Taliban to assume control over Afghanistans embassies within their territories. Despite this, the Taliban-controlled central bank of Afghanistan receives significant financial support indirectly through the United Nations, with periodic shipments of $80 million every 10 to 14 days. The Taliban regime's alignmentor lack thereofwith international norms on human rights and women's rights remains a significant point of contention. The group has strategically avoided actions that might provoke Western powers directly, such as permitting anti-Israeli demonstrations in Kabul and other cities. However, they have shown support for regional dynamics contrary to Western interests, such as backing Iran's retaliatory measures against Israeli actions.

It appears increasingly unrealistic to expect the Taliban to adopt liberal ideals voluntarily, respect for human rights, or inclusive policies toward women and non-Pashtun ethnic groups. In the background, armed resistance groups such as the National Resistance Front (NRF) and Afghanistan Freedom Front (AFF) have geared up their attacks in Kabul and other cities. The disillusionment among political forces that once hoped for a power-sharing arrangement with the Taliban is growing, as evidenced by the escalating rhetoric and actions of armed resistance groups. These groups advocate for democratic processes and elections as a pathway out of the current regime's extremism, presenting the US and EU with potential allies. Supporting these democratic resistance movements could emerge as a strategic avenue for the US and EU to influence Afghanistan's future in a direction that aligns more closely with international norms and promotes human rights.

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China-Taliban Relationship: China Navigates a New Afghanistan with the Taliban as its Rulers - Friedrich Naumann Foundation

Afghanistan, a country plagued by invasion, occupation, and domestic conflicts, is approaching a historic turning point in its turbulent history. The implications of decades of strife, compounded by current developments, resonate not just inside its boundaries, but also throughout the region, notably in neighboring Pakistan. As Afghanistan faces continuous problems ranging from political instability and economic downturn to humanitarian crises and human rights violations, the implications for Pakistan become far-reaching and more complex.

Afghanistans recent past has been affected by several waves of conflict and intervention. The Soviet invasion in 1979 ushereda protracted era of resistance and internal struggle, culminating in the creation of the Taliban in the 1990s. The US-led interventionfollowing the 9/11 attacks attempted to disrupt terrorist networks and restore stability. However, despite enormous global efforts and investment over the last two decades, Afghanistan remains plagued by violence and insecurity.

The withdrawal of US forces in 2021 provoked a swift comeback of Taliban, resulting in the fall of the Afghan Government and the resumption of control by Taliban. This power transfer has not only resulted in predicted stability, but has brought about a new era of uncertainty and turbulence. The Talibans harsh governance model and discriminatory policies have alienated a huge portion of the Afghan populace, sparking internal opposition and compounding humanitarian disasters.

One of the most significant concerns about Afghanistans instability is the spread of extremist organizations and their cross-border activities. Talibans rise has led to other extremist organizations, notably ISIS-K, that continues to pose substantial security challenges in Afghanistan and adjacent countries, such as Pakistan.

The instability across the Durand Line has immediate security consequences for Pakistan, which has a long and porous border with Afghanistan. The flood of refugees, arms smuggling, and militants freemovement between the two countries all worsen Pakistans security issues. To minimize the spillover effects of Afghanistans conflict, Pakistans military has been conducting counterterrorism operations throughout its border areas. Furthermore, the continued presence of extremist organizations in Afghanistan has traditionally had an impact on regional stability, influencing Pakistans attempts to combat terrorism inside its own borders. The Afghan Talibans nefarious connections with militant groups in Pakistans tribal areas have occasionally caused strain in diplomatic relations and besides hindering efforts to cooperate on security problems.

Afghanistans economic collapse, caused by the withdrawal of foreign aid and the implementation of sanctions, has far-reaching implications. The Afghan economy, which was already unstable, has plunged into a crisis, resulting in increasing unemployment, widespread poverty, and an emerging humanitarian disaster. The failure of Afghan banking system and currency depreciation have compounded financial missenses, plunging millions of Afghans into extreme destitution besides causing widespread displacement.

The humanitarian situation in Afghanistan remain catastrophic, with millions of people in desperate need of assistance. The severe weather conditions including the floods in upcoming monsoon season intensify the suffering, especially among vulnerable groups like children and the elderly. The inability of humanitarian organizations to access certain regions due to ongoing conflict hampers relief efforts, compounding the humanitarian crisis.

The turmoil in Afghanistan has enormous strategic, economic, and humanitarian repercussions for Pakistan. A peaceful, state and prospering Afghanistan is always in favour of Pakistan. Nobody wants to have fire sparks in its backyard. That is the reason, Pakistan has always supported peace and stability measures in Afghanistan.

Pakistan continues to face security concerns from extremist organizations operating along its border with Afghanistan. The surge of migrants, as well as the smuggling of weaponry and narcotics, put extra strain on Pakistans security apparatus. Efforts to safeguard the border and combat extremist elements necessitate ongoing monitoring and coordination with Afghan authorities.

Economicinstability in Afghanistan has serious implications towards Pakistan, particularly in bordering districts, where trade and cross-border trading are affected. Pakistan has provided humanitarian aid to Afghan refugees, while also seeking foreign assistance to deal with the crisiss economic consequences.

Pakistan has one of the largest Afghan refugee populations in the world. The surge of people escaping conflict and economic hardship in Afghanistan puts a strain on Pakistans resources, such as healthcare, education and infrastructure. Pakistan continues to face considerable challenges in managing refugee populations, while guaranteeing humane treatment and access to essential amenities.

Diplomatically, Pakistan has played an important role in promoting peace talks and negotiations to stabilize Afghanistan. Pakistans relations with the Afghan Taliban are complex and impacted by a variety of variables, including security concerns and considerations for regional stability. However, Pakistans efforts to mediate and foster negotiations between the Afghan Government and the Taliban have been met with uneven results, reflecting the larger obstacles of attaining long-term peace and stability in Afghanistan. Pakistans support for a peaceful and inclusive political agreement in Afghanistan remains critical to regional stability and security.

To put it simply, Afghanistans continued turmoil has far-reaching consequences for its immediate neighbor, Pakistan. To address these difficulties, a coordinated regional approach is required, as well as international cooperation and support. As Afghanistan continues to struggle for stability and recovery, Pakistans role as a vital regional actor remains critical. Pakistan could assist to build peace and stability in Afghanistan by resolving security issues, supporting economic recovery efforts, and emphasizing humanitarian assistance, all of which advance mutual interests and promote regional prosperity. The road ahead is riddled with difficulties, but concentrated efforts and continuous involvement provide promise for a more peaceful and prosperous future for Afghanistan and Pakistan.

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Afghanistan: A Nation In Turmoil And Its Regional Implications OpEd - Eurasia Review

Taliban officials attended a rare, United Nations-led conference of global envoys to Afghanistan on Sunday, the first such meeting Taliban representatives have agreed to engage in, after organizers said Afghan women would be excluded from the talks.

The two-day conference in Doha, Qatar, is the third of its kind. It is part of a United Nations-led effort, known as the Doha process, started in May 2023. It is meant to develop a unified approach for international engagement with Afghanistan. Envoys from around 25 countries and regional organizations, including the European Union, the United States, Russia and China, are attending.

Taliban officials were not invited to the first meeting and refused to attend the second meeting, held in February, after objecting to the inclusion of Afghan civil society groups that attended.

The conference has drawn a fierce backlash in recent days after U.N. officials announced that Afghan women would not participate in discussions with Taliban officials. Human rights groups and Afghan womens groups have slammed the decision to exclude them as too severe a concession by the U.N. to persuade the Taliban to engage in the talks.

The decision to exclude women sets a deeply damaging precedent and risks legitimatizing their gender-based institutional system of oppression, Agns Callamard, the secretary general of Amnesty International, said in a statement referring to the Talibans policies toward women. The international community must adopt a clear and united stance: The rights of women and girls in Afghanistan are nonnegotiable.

Since seizing power from the U.S.-backed government in 2021, Taliban authorities have systematically rolled back womens rights, effectively erasing women from public life. Women and girls are barred from getting education beyond primary school and banned from most employment outside of education and health care, and they cannot travel significant distances without a male guardian.

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Taliban Talks With U.N. Go On Despite Alarm Over Exclusion of Women - The New York Times

Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili*

July 2024

This paper critically examines the shortcomings of post-conflict reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2021, arguing that an overemphasis on measurable results and causal inference led to overly narrow, community-driven development interventions that failed to appreciate the complex political realities of the country.

While these interventions espoused community control, they were in fact the result of a top-down approach reminiscent of earlier state-building efforts, neglected the importance of customary authority structures, and treated Afghanistan as a blank slate for experimentation. Such community-based programmes also lead to a myopic focus on quantifiable metrics at the expense of political considerations, reflecting a broader methodological bias in development studies exemplified by the popularity of randomized controlled trials.

Drawing on extensive field observations, the paper contends that such programmes worked against the grain of Afghan society and paradoxically undermined the legitimacy and effectiveness of local governance institutions.

The paper concludes by advocating a more holistic, adaptive, and politically informed approach to grassroots development in conflict-affected regionsone that empowers authentic local ownership, aligns with endogenous social and political structures, and grapples with the messy realities of fostering legitimate governance in fragile contexts.

The hard-earned lessons from Afghanistans recent past should prompt a fundamental rethinking of what constitutes effective development assistance in post-conflict environments.

Read more here:
The experimented society: interventions, social science, and the failure of post-conflict reconstruction in Afghanistan ... - ReliefWeb

Speaking in the Qatari capital, Doha, after the Third Meeting of Special Envoys on Afghanistan, UN political chief Rosemary DiCarlo expressed deep concern over the situation of women and girls in the country.

Running through all the discussions was the deep international concern from special envoys and from me about the ongoing and serious restrictions on women and girls, she stated.

Afghanistan cannot return to the international fold, or fully develop economically and socially, if it is deprived of the contributions and potential of half its population, asserted Ms. DiCarlo, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs.

The consultations follow talks in May 2023 and February 2024. They build upon the proposals outlined in an independent review on an integrated and coherent approach conducted by Feridun Sinirliolu, in line with Security Council resolution 2679.

Focused discussions with Afghan women and civil society are scheduled to take place on Tuesday.

Ms. DiCarlo further stressed that the concerns and views of Afghan women and civil society remain front and center.

For the United Nations, the meaningful inclusion of women in political and peace processes is a guiding principle, she said.

And while women and civil society were not sitting across the table from the de facto authorities the last two days, they made their voices heard. Civil society has a rightful role to play in shaping Afghanistans future, she asserted.

Since the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in August 2021, women and girls have faced systemic discrimination, including a ban on girls education.

That ban is heartbreaking, Ms. DiCarlo maintained.

If you prevent half the population from education, from being involved in the economy and various professions, it just means that it delays the develop of Afghanistan, Ms. DiCarlo replied to one woman reporter.

Just imagine if you were only allowed to go through sixth grade, you would not be sitting here being a journalist, I would not be here being a UN official. [It is] heartbreaking frankly but let us see and let us keep at it, that is all I can say. We have to make clear how important is and how it is going to be better for Afghanistan.

She explained that in organizing the meeting, the UN faced a very tough, maybe impossible, choice, aiming to bring the Taliban and the special envoys together for direct talks.

Regrettably, the de facto authorities will not sit across the table with Afghan civil society in this format. But they heard very clearly the need to include women and civil society in all aspects of public life, she said.

She further emphasized that the meeting and process of engagement does not mean normalization or recognition of the Taliban de facto authorities.

Ms. DiCarlo expressed hope that the exchanges on the various issues during the meeting moved us a little closer to resolving some of the problems devastating the Afghan people.

To conclude, I would like to reiterate the United Nations commitment to continue to support this process of principled engagement for the benefit of all Afghans, she said.

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UN pushes for inclusive future in Afghanistan at Doha talks - UN News