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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

Mixed prospects for 2017 winter grains following dry weather conditions in autumn

Slightly below-average cereal crop harvested in 2016

Cereal import requirements in 2016/17 forecast at levels similar to 2015/16

Wheat prices stable, inflation easing

Food insecurity on the rise

Mixed prospects for 2017 winter grains

Planting of winter barley and wheat for harvesting from May 2017 was completed by the end of November. Dry weather conditions and resulting limited soil moisture delayed plantings in some areas, while some farmers postponed wheat planting until spring. Official estimates for planted area are not yet available.

Current weather conditions remain relatively favourable for cereal crop development after the rains and high elevation snow resumed in January and ended an early season dryness across most of the country. However, as of the end of January, abnormal dryness persisted in western parts of the country, from Jawzjan Province in the north to Hilmand Province in the south. In the northern and eastern part of the country, the snow water equivalent an important source of irrigation water remains on par with average values for the season.

The bulk of farmers rely on their own farmsaved seeds. Households with low purchasing power in some areas are eligible for subsidies for improved seeds. In the current planting season, about 10 000 tonnes of certified wheat seeds were distributed by the Government, FAO, and NGOs. Around 98 percent of the seeds were used on irrigated land with an average seeding rate of 150 kg per hectare, making the amount sufficient to plant around 67 000 hectares.

Slightly belowaverage cereal crop harvested in 2016

Final production estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL) indicate that 4.55 million tonnes of wheat were harvested in 2016, only slightly below last years harvest and the fiveyear average. Some 3.7 million tonnes were produced under irrigated conditions and 830 000 tonnes from rainfed areas. While the total wheat cultivated area increased by 9.5 percent compared to the previous year to 2.3 million hectares, the average yield declined by 8 percent on last years level to 1.98 tonnes per hectare due to pests and wheat rust.

The 2016 Opium Survey revealed that in 2016 the total area under opium poppy cultivation (201 000 hectares) increased by 10 percent compared to the previous year. Potential opium production was estimated at 4 800 tonnes, with an increase of 43 percent from the 2015 level of 3 300 tonnes, but still below the 2014 production of 6 400 tonnes. Strong opium production increases were noted particularly in the areas where the security situation has deteriorated since 2015, such as the Northern region and in Badghis Province.

Wheat import requirements in 2016/17 similar to previous year

Cereal import requirements (mainly wheat) in the current 2016/17 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 2.6 million tonnes, about the same as in the previous year and slightly above the fiveyear average. Even in years with above average domestic production, the country imports wheat flour, reflecting the lack of adequate domestic milling capacity and problems of cost effectiveness. The dominant suppliers of wheat flour are Kazakhstan and Pakistan. Imported wheat and wheat flour are often blended with domestic wheat to improve its protein content.

Wheat prices stable, levels of inflation easing

In the last six months to January 2017, wheat grain prices in Kabul and Kandahar markets remained stable, while wheat flour prices experienced greater volatility. Large price differentials persist among different areas of the country: wheat grain is almost 30 percent more expensive in Kandahar than in Herat.

Inflation rates have eased towards the end of 2016, mainly due to the relatively stable exchange rate between the Afghani and the US dollar supported by lower global goods and energy prices. In November 2016, the CPI was up nearly 4.6 percent relative to the same period last year, a slight decline from the almost 6 percent in July 2016. The food component of the CPI increased by 6.6 percent, about the same as in the previous month.

Food insecurity on the rise

Overall food insecurity in the country is on the rise, with almost 1.6 million people (6 percent of the population) considered to be severely food insecure and 9.7 million people (34 percent of the population) being moderately food insecure. Continuing conflict, natural hazards and limited economic opportunities increase the vulnerability of the poorest households, such as subsistence farmers.

The total number of individuals displaced by the conflict in 2016 is estimated at 636 503. A large share of displacements are located in the hard to access areas. In 2017 so far, 2 864 individuals have been verified as displaced. Both documented and undocumented Afghans have been returning for a variety of reasons, including the deteriorating protection space in Pakistan. Many of those returning have lived outside of Afghanistan for decades and need the support from the Government and humanitarian actors both on arrival and during the reintegration into a country already struggling with widespread conflict and displacement. Since 1 January 2016, over 728 000 undocumented Afghans have returned. Until 31 December 2016, 372 392 documented refugees returned from Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran. No registered refugees from Pakistan were recorded in the last seven weeks as the winter pause in the repatriation programme continues.

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GIEWS Country Brief: Afghanistan 06-February-2017 - ReliefWeb

Stars and Stripes

Top US general: An additional several thousand troops needed in Afghanistan Stars and Stripes Members of Operational Detachment-Alpha 0224 are transported via Chinook Helicopters to conduct various missions across Afghanistan in 2016. Gen. John Nicholson, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, testified before a Senate Armed Services ... Top US general says more troops needed in AfghanistanFox News Thousands more troops are needed in Afghanistan, top commander tells CongressMilitary Times Top US commander says he's short 'a few thousand' troops in AfghanistanThe Hill Courier Mail -Washington Examiner all 26 news articles »

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Top US general: An additional several thousand troops needed in Afghanistan - Stars and Stripes

KABUL, AfghanistanGunmen killed six employees of the International Committee of the Red Cross in northern Afghanistan on Wednesday, a spokesman for the aid group said.

Ahmad Ramin Ayaz, the groups Kabul-based spokesman, said the attack took place in the northern Jowzjan province, without providing further details.

Rahmatullah Turkistani, the chief of the provincial police, confirmed the attack, saying it took place 22 miles west of the provincial capital, Shibirghan.

No one immediately claimed the attack, but Turkistani said militants loyal to the Islamic State group have a presence in the area. The Taliban denied involvement.

Elsewhere in Afghanistan, a suicide bomber detonated his payload after being stopped outside a district headquarters in the eastern Paktia province, killing two civilians and wounding a policeman, said Abdullah Asrat, the spokesman for the provincial governor.

No one claimed responsibility, but the Taliban frequently attack government targets.

On Tuesday, a suicide bomber struck at the entrance to the Afghan Supreme Court in the capital, Kabul, killing at least 20 people and wounding more than 40.

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Gunmen kill Red Cross workers in Afghanistan - New York Post

The Trump administration is a blank slate on the long war in Afghanistan, and key members of Congress are eager for President Donald Trump to consider a new course.

I want to know why were losing, and what we need to do to start winning, said Senate Armed Services Chairman John McCain (R-Ariz.).

The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, Gen. John Nicholson, testifies before McCains committee on Thursday, where he could offer the first clues for the Trump administrations plans for the 15-year-old war where 8,400 U.S. troops are still on the ground.

The new president has barely mentioned the war in Afghanistan since taking office and it was a non-issue during his presidential campaign. Instead, Trump has focused on the fight against the Islamic State with a presidential memorandum calling for an accelerated campaign in Iraq and Syria.

But the landscape in Afghanistan is a struggle for the U.S.-backed Afghan forces thats turned into a stalemate, and some experts say it needs to change.

More than 6,700 Afghan troops were killed in 2016 through Nov. 12 already surpassing the 6,600 killed in 2015, according to the latest quarterly report from the special inspector general for Afghan reconstruction. The Afghan government controlled 57 percent of the countrys districts in November, according to the inspector general, which is a 6 percent loss since August and a 15 percent drop compared to November 2015.

At some point, were going to need to understand what [Trumps] goals and policies are going to be Senator Angus King

And suicide bombings have not relented there, including an attack on the Afghanistan Supreme Court on Tuesday that killed nearly two dozen people.

The situation in Afghanistan is the worst its been since 9/11, which is no fault of Gen. Nicholsons, but the situation is not good, said Peter Bergen, director of the International Security and Future of War programs at the New America think tank. This is one of the key national security decisions of the new administration.

The Taliban is contesting control of territory where 10 million people, one-third of the Afghan population, are located. Thats more people than ISIS controlled at the height of its power, Bergen said. I dont think the present situation is sustainable.

Trumps comments on Afghanistan during the presidential campaign dont provide much clarity on his thinking and how it might fit into his America First mantra.

U.S. Senator John McCain | Win McNamee/Getty Images

In an October 2015 CNN interview, he called the Afghanistan war a terrible mistake and said he would begrudgingly keep U.S. troops there.

Are they going to be there for the next 200 years? At some point, whats going on? Trump asked. Its going to be a long time. We made a terrible mistake getting involved there in the first place. Its a mess. And at this point, you probably have to because that thing will collapse about two seconds after they leave.

In April, Trump reiterated a reluctance to remain in Afghanistan, but cited Pakistan as a reason to stay.

I would stay in Afghanistan, Trump said in a Fox News interview. I hate doing it, I hate doing it so much. But, again, you have nuclear weapons in Pakistan, so I would do it.

So far, Trump has publicly touted his desire to retool the U.S. campaign again the Islamic State, asking the Pentagon for a 30-day review aimed at accelerating that campaign. But hes not asked for a similar plan for Afghanistan. And he did not discuss the war during his speech Monday at the U.S. Central Command in Florida.

Trump has spoken with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. And The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump told him hed consider sending more troops to bolster the countrys security, citing Afghan officials. Trump is scheduled to speak again with Ghani on Thursday, according to the White House.

The new presidents national security team also has plenty of Afghanistan experience. National security adviser Michael Flynn was director of intelligence in Afghanistan. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, who has also spoken by phone with Ghani, commanded Marines in the initial stages of the war and led CENTCOM, which oversees Afghanistan and the rest of the Middle East.

The Pentagon is expected to continue to review the U.S. campaign in Afghanistan, but key lawmakers say that hearing from Trump on the war is whats most important.

Obviously, his decisions are going to drive what the policy is, said Senator Angus King (I-Maine.), a member of the Armed Services Committee. At some point, were going to need to understand what his goals and policies are going to be.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment. And a Pentagon spokesman deferred questions to Nicholsons testimony Thursday.

Trump has several options in Afghanistan, from raising the number of troops there to giving U.S. commanders more freedom to conduct counterterrorism missions and airstrikes.

House Armed Services Chairman Mac Thornberry (R-Texas), for instance, said the Trump administration should do away with arbitrary troop caps that are more expensive and limit our effectiveness and were only put in place for political purposes.

U.S. President Donald Trump has several options in Afghanistan | Pool photo by Shawn Thew/Getty Images

In September, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joe Dunford told the Senate Armed Services panel that the situation in Afghanistan had basically fallen into a stalemate between Afghan forces and the Taliban.

Theres no doubt that the Afghan National Security Forces have had some challenges over the past 18 months when theyve been in the lead and we have gone to a train and advice and assist mission, Dunford said.

McCain pressed Mattis on Afghanistan at his confirmation hearing, asking if he agreed the Taliban are able to mount greater and more serious attacks on capitals across that nation.

They have had advances and eroded some of our successes, chairman, Mattis responded, adding he also agreed with McCain that the Afghan National Armys losses were not sustainable.

If they trot out some funky theory that explains why we should leave tomorrow, and actually believe that and act on that, thatll tell me were in for a pretty rough ride Michael OHanlon, Brookings Institution

Defense analysts say a strong declaration from the Trump administration that the U.S. plans to stay in Afghanistan would be beneficial, particularly after the Obama administrations frequent calls for drawdowns and withdrawals that didnt really materialize.

But there are also concerns that Trump could opt to pull out all together.

I see it as a good test of Trump as president, said Michael OHanlon of the Brookings Institution. If they trot out some funky theory that explains why we should leave tomorrow, and actually believe that and act on that, thatll tell me were in for a pretty rough ride.

Whatever the Trump administration decides, its unlikely to be able to make a major impact on this years Afghan fighting season that typically begins in March, said Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who advised Gen. Stanley McChrystal on the Afghan war during the Obama administration.

One of the things I think that people do not understand is the real world nature of the calendar in Afghanistan, Cordesman said. It takes about 3 to 4 months to really put any new idea or concept actually in place.

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Congress looking for a Trump war plan for Afghanistan - POLITICO.eu

Tuesdays blast near the Supreme Court premises in Kabul that left at least 20 people dead, underscores the growing insecurity in Afghanistan. The suicide attack once again reveals the capability of terrorist outfits in Afghanistan to target even the most secure places in the national capital. In the past the Taliban have targeted the court and even the Parliament building. The government of Ashraf Ghani has condemned the attack and vowed a tough response. But beyond the rhetoric, Kabuls anti-terror strategy has hardly been effective, considering the inroads insurgents have made in the recent years. After most foreign troops withdrew in 2014, the Taliban have steadily stepped up attacks, expanding the civil war into residential areas. According to a UN report, 2016 was the bloodiest year for Afghan civilians since the U.S.-led invasion began in 2001. The Talibans territorial control has grown in strength. Last year it had briefly overrun the northern city of Kunduz and threatened to attack several other population centres. A report by Sigar, a U.S. Congressional watchdog, says around 28% of Afghans now live in territories over which government troops and the Taliban have been fighting.

The Ghani government had initially sought an agreement with the Taliban and reached out to Pakistan, which has some influence over the group. But this yielded nothing. Kabul failed to cash in on an internal power struggle within the Taliban after the 2015 disclosure about the death of its leader, Mullah Omar. The Taliban survived the death of Omars successor, Mullah Mansoor, in a U.S. drone strike. The Taliban have over time built resources and a strong insurgent army to fight a long war with the elected government. The question is whether the government, facing factionalism and corruption allegations, is ready for it. For Kabul, the threat is multiplying. The Islamic State has established some presence in the country and declared a province of the Caliphate in eastern Afghanistan Wilayat Khorasan. To turn its fortunes around in the 15-year-old civil war, Afghanistan needs to strengthen the administration. Mr. Ghani should initiate the administrative reforms he had promised and put up a stronger, united fight against terrorist groups. Kabul should seek more help and a higher level of commitment from other countries, including the U.S., in combating terror. A weakening of the civilian government and its capacity to ensure security is not in the interest of any global power.

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Growing insecurity in Afghanistan - The Hindu