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Americas top military officer conceded this week it is possible the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan contributed to Russia's decision to invade Ukraine an argument Republicans have made for weeks.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley made the comments during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Thursday. Gen. Tod Wolters, the head of U.S. European Command, said last week that Vladimir Putin may have been attempting to take advantage of potential cracks in NATO resulting from post-Afghanistan conditions.

When pressed by Sen. Marsha Blackburn, a Tennessee Republican, on the Afghanistan withdrawal and whether it played a part in Putin's decision to invade Ukraine, Milley replied: From the intelligence Ive read, its not clear. I think it certainly is possible, but I also know that Putin had aims on Ukraine long before the end of the war in Afghanistan.

Blackburn cut him off: I think we all know that. So he saw his opening, right?

Well, the forces were building up they began to build up their force in September, October, Milley replied. So I think in order to do that, they wouldve had to have the plans and approval long before September, October.

The Taliban rapidly took over following a chaotic U.S. military withdrawal last year, and an August suicide bombing at the airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, by the Islamic State killed 13 U.S. service members during evacuation efforts at the airport, with the Taliban providing security outside. Republicans have repeatedly connected the disastrous withdrawal to the current situation in Ukraine.

Russian forces engaged in two major force buildups on the Ukrainian border in 2021 first in the spring of 2021 and then in the fall in the months after the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan. The second buildup led to the invasion.

INTEL OFFICIAL WHO SIGNED HUNTER BIDEN LETTER PICKED FOR AFGHAN WAR COMMISSION

Milley reportedly told Congress behind closed doors in early February that Kyiv could be conquered by Russia within 72 hours of a full-scale invasion.

In comparison, both Milley and President Joe Biden, as well as the rest of the administration, appeared to overestimate the strength and the willpower of the Afghan army ahead of the Taliban's takeover.

Wolters, the supreme allied commander for Europe, testified last month in front of the House Armed Services Committee, with Rep. Jim Banks, an Indiana Republican, asking why Putin decided to invade on Feb. 24 rather than some other time since 2014.

I think he felt like he had the popular support of the citizens of Russia, Wolters said. I also felt like he was attempting to take advantage of fissures that could have appeared in NATO as a result of the post-Afghanistan environment. And I also think that it has to do with his age and his efficacy.

The general said: All those combined together put him in a position to where he elected to go at this time, but the overriding variable in my view is the fact that he believes that he has popular support with his citizens.

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The Russians waited until just a few days after the Beijing Olympics finished to attack Ukraine.

On the day of Putin's invasion, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said: I think the precipitous withdrawal from Afghanistan in August was a signal, to Putin and maybe to Chinese President Xi as well, that America was in retreat, that America could not be depended upon, and was an invitation to the autocrats of the world that maybe this was a good time to make a move."

The invasion of Ukraine came after weeks of warnings by the U.S. intelligence community that Putin was likely to invade. Biden indicated in January he believed a Russian victory in Ukraine would essentially be certain.

Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier admitted last month that he had botched the assessment of Ukraines will to fight, saying: My view was that, based on a variety of factors, that the Ukrainians were not as ready as I thought they should be. Therefore, I questioned their will to fight. That was a bad assessment on my part because they have fought bravely and honorably.

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Milley concedes Afghanistan withdrawal may have influenced Putin's Ukraine move - Washington Examiner

The U.S. Army would like to find a replacement for its Cold War-era FIM-92 Stinger air defense system, the iconic man-portable anti-aircraft system that the United States exported around the world. Stingers were used against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan to significant effect in the 1980s, as well as in other parts of the world.

The Department of the Army put out an official Request for Information (RFI) that explained why the Stinger is growing obsolete and what the Army would like to see in a replacement.

There are multiple requirements for the new system, and the Army listed several of the qualities it is seeking in its request.

The system must be capable of defeating Rotary Wing (RW) aircraft, Group 2-3 Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), and Fixed Wing (FW) ground attack aircraft with capabilities equal to or greater than the current Stinger missile (with Proximity Fuse capability), the Army explained.

Furthermore, the new system should be compatible with Stinger Vehicle Universal Launcher (SVUL), which is a component of M-SHORAD Inc. 1, and also be Soldier portable All-Up-Round, or man-portable.

Finally, the system should offer improved target acquisition with increased lethality and ranges over current capability.

Old (and Diminishing) Stockpiles

The United States has maintained the weapon since the early 1980s but existing stockpiles of the Stinger missile system are shrinking. This trend has been exacerbated by large Stinger shipments to Ukraine to aid the country in its fight against Russia.

The Stinger- Reprogrammable Microprocessor (RMP) will become obsolete in fiscal year (FY) 2023 and Stinger Block I is undergoing a service life extension to extend its end of useful life, the RFI explained, adding that the current Stinger inventory is in decline.

Advances in seeker systems, as well as warheads and other rocket technology, could allow for a design that is dimensionally identical to the FIM-92 Stinger missile but offers greater lethality. Alternatively, an entirely new design could offer significant modernized improvements.

Either way, the FIM-92 Stingers days are numbered. The Army would like to conduct a technology demonstration in FY24 consisting of all digital simulation, hardware-in-the-loop, and/or live fire demonstration, and the new system must be capable of entering production no later than FY27 using production-line processes after the completion of design, development, and test.

That timeline may seem far outbut the Army would like to start testing Stinger-replacement prototypes as soon as next year.

Caleb Larson is a multimedia journalist and defense writer with the National Interest. A graduate of UCLA, he also holds a Master of Public Policy and lives in Berlin. He covers the intersection of conflict, security, and technology, focusing on American foreign policy, European security, and German society for both print and radio. Follow him on Twitter @calebmlarson

Image: U.S. Army/Flickr.

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Despite Fighting in Afghanistan and Ukraine, the Stinger's Days Are Numbered - The National Interest Online

On Fridays broadcast of the Fox News Channels Hannity, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) stated that poor decisions in the past by the Biden administration have put us in a bad spot in the crisis in Ukraine and remarked that it would be helpful if some of the weapons and equipment the U.S. left behind in Afghanistan was in Ukraine right now to better arm the Ukrainian people to repel the invasion by Russia.

Jordan said, [relevant remarks begin around 4:30] Sean, think about this: Dan just talked about weapons and what we need to get to the Ukrainians, it wouldve been nice if that $85 billion of weapons and equipment we left in Afghanistan, if that was in some of that was in Ukraine right now to help the Ukrainian people. Thatd be nice. Itd be nice if the State Department would be focused on real diplomacy versus when they sent out the email that said, oh, what pronoun do you want to use? And, oh, were going to have gender-neutral passports now, for goodness sake. So, thats the problem, bad decisions early on that put us in this terrible position. And the Ukrainian people feel it as we speak.

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Jordan: It Would Be Nice if Equipment We Left in ...

Key Findings

The production of opiates (opium, morphine, and heroin) is arguably Afghanistans largest illegal economic activity. The gross output of the Afghan illicit opiate economy was estimated to be $1.8-$2.7 billion in 2021. The total value of opiates, including domestic consumption and exports, stood at between 9 to 14 per cent of Afghanistans GDP, exceeding the value of its officially recorded licit exports of goods and services (estimated at 9 per cent of GDP in 2020).

At the end of the annual opium cultivation season in July 2021, the area under opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan was estimated at 177,000 hectares. This was a 21 per cent decrease from 2020, representing a contraction of 47,000 hectares. Opium poppy cultivation has been increasing steadily over the past two decades, with an average increase of 4,000 hectares each year since systematic monitoring began in 1994 albeit with strong yearly fluctuations.Most of the 2021 opium poppy cultivation took place in the South-western region (79%), followed by the Western region (10%) and Northern region (6%). The Eastern and North-eastern regions accounted for 2% each of total cultivation. The Southern and Central regions together accounted for 0.8% of the total cultivation.

When compared to 2021, opium poppy cultivation decreased by some 18,100 hectares (-50%) in the Western region, by 13,200 hectares (-9%) in the South-western region, by 13,000 hectares (-57%) in the Northern region and by 3,200 hectares (-46%) in the North-eastern region.

Hilmand remained the countrys leading opium poppy cultivating province, followed by Kandahar, Farah, Uruzgan, Badghis, Faryab, Badakhshan, Nimroz and Balkh. The number of poppy-free provinces in 2021 decreased from 12 to 11. Samangan province lost its poppy-free status. The number of provinces affected by opium poppy cultivation increased from 22 to 23.

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Afghanistan Opium Survey 2021 - Cultivation and Production - Afghanistan - ReliefWeb

Political Scientist Navin Bapat to Speak April 4 at Ohio Wesleyan on the Impact of Operation Enduring Freedom

By Sarah Jonassen 22

DELAWARE, Ohio Political scientist and professor Navin Bapat of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill says the history behind the Taliban recapturing Afghanistan is far more complex than it appears.

Bapat, Ph.D., will discuss Operation Enduring Freedom and its lasting effects when he presents Afghanistan and the End of the War on Terror at 6:30 p.m. April 4 at Ohio Wesleyan University. He will speak in the Benes Rooms of OWUs Hamilton-Williams Campus Center, 40 Rowland Ave., Delaware.

Twenty years ago, the United States initiated the global war on terror in response to al Qaedas attacks on 9/11, Bapat said in describing his talk. This $5 trillion war is responsible for the deaths of thousands of American military personnel, as well as tens of thousands of civilians throughout the Middle East, Asia, and Africa.

Yet, on August 15, 2021, the Taliban recaptured Afghanistan from the American-supported government, he said. What caused the failure in Afghanistan, and what is the future of the war on terror?

In a recent Political Violence at a Glance article, Bapat said of the operation: While it may be tempting to place the blame at the feet of the Afghans, it is worth examining the situation more closely. This was an American war and an American failure. Fear of terrorism led the U.S. to engage in a military adventure in South Asia without thoroughly analyzing the consequences of its policy and the perverse incentives it created.

Bapat is the Dowd Professor in Political Science and the Chair of the Curriculum of Peace, War, and Defense at UNC-Chapel Hill. He specializes in the study of American foreign policy, transnational terrorism, and the rise of extremism within insurgencies. He obtained his doctorate in political science from Rice University.

His first book, Monsters to Destroy: Understanding the War on Terror, argues the war on terror can be explained as an effort to cement the U.S. dollar as the worlds foremost reserve currency by expanding American control over global energy markets.

Bapat also has published in theAmerican Journal of Political Science, theJournal of Politics,International Organization,International Studies Quarterly,the British Journal of Political Science,Public Choice,the Journal of Peace Research,International Interactions, andConflict Management and Peace Science.

His Ohio Wesleyan presentation represents the universitys 32nd annual John Kennard Eddy Memorial Lecture on World Politics. The lecture honors the life of student Jeff Eddy, killed in an automobile accident in 1988. The event is sponsored by the OWU International Studies Program and the Department of Politics and Government. Learn more at owu.edu/internationalstudies and owu.edu/politics.

Founded in 1842, Ohio Wesleyan University is one of the nations premier liberal arts universities. Located in Delaware, Ohio, the private university offers more than 70 undergraduate majors and competes in 24 NCAA Division III varsity sports. Through its signature program, The OWU Connection, Ohio Wesleyan teaches students to integrate knowledge across disciplines, build a diverse and global perspective, and apply knowledge in real-world settings. Ohio Wesleyan is featured in the book Colleges That Change Lives and included on the U.S. News & World Report and Princeton Review Best Colleges lists. Connect with OWU expert interview sources at owu.edu/experts or learn more at owu.edu.

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'Afghanistan and the End of the War on Terror' - Ohio Wesleyan University