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On October 1, 2023, the ousted Afghan government of President Ashraf Ghani closed its embassy in India, weeks ahead of the arrival in Kabul of the Chinese Ambassador to Taliban-led Afghanistan. The vacuum left by the United States withdrawal from Afghanistan is growing in significance as China strives to increase its presence in the face of Indias wait and watch approach. In the wake of these developments, Afghanistan can either turn out to be a ground for confrontation or cooperation between China and India. Instability in Afghanistan and the resurgence of terrorism is a collective security threat to both India and China, therefore, cooperation through regional platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) can best serve the interest of both the states.

Instability in Afghanistan and the resurgence of terrorism is a collective security threat to both India and China, therefore, cooperation through regional platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) can best serve the interest of both the states.

Two Years of Taliban Rule Has Consequences for Regional Stability:

On August 6, 2021, the Taliban took charge of governance in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the United States. Ever since, the question of whether to recognize the Taliban regime has posed a challenge for the international community. For many in the international community, the Afghan Taliban is considered a violent non-state actor that established de-facto control over the region for the second time. During the regimes first tenure in the 1990s, their orthodox policies brought them a great deal of criticism on the grounds of womens rights and human security. With their return to power in 2021, the Taliban has still resorted to the same approach of brutally enforcing their version of shariah.

After more than two years of Taliban rule, militant groups have resurged on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, leading to a new wave of terrorism. This naturally poses a grave threat to regional stability and is thus a concern for India and China as regional stakeholders. Because India and China have vested stakes in the stability of Afghanistan and the region, both states have an incentive to put aside geopolitical competition to coordinate with each other to build stability in Afghanistan.

Chinas Growing Stakes in Afghanistan:

Afghanistan is significant for China for three main reasons. Following the U.S. withdrawal, China has sought influence in Afghanistan to compete with U.S. dominance in the existing global order. Both states vie for regional actors trust, to keep them out of each others influence. Before Kabuls fall, Chinese officials invited the Taliban to Tianjin, signaling a willingness to engage. Given Afghanistanschallenge to the U.S. and NATO, China has opted for caution to dodge excessive responsibility. Espousing the Afghan-led, Afghan-owned principle, China maintains a principle of non-intervention in Afghanistans domestic affairs.

Nevertheless, China has maintained its footprint in Afghanistan by providing aid and deepening economic ties. In September 2021, China sent $31 million in aid to Afghanistan and 3 million COVID-19 vaccine doses. In January 2023, the Taliban regime signed an oil-extraction deal with a Chinese company Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co (CAPEIC), worth $150 million/year with the potential to create 3,000 jobs. The Taliban regime has also signed seven agreements with China, worth $6.5 billion, for the extraction of gold, iron ore, zinc and lead.

On May 5, 2023 China, Pakistan, and the Taliban agreed to admit Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This move, owing to Afghanistans strategic location, offers China a direct route to economic integration in Iran and Central Asia. However, recent terrorist attacks on Chinese-owned infrastructure in Pakistan underlie the risks of an unstable Afghanistan to the BRIs key project, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)). This rise in Chinas economic sway in Afghanistan contests Indias regional standing.

Finally, China views the potential for extremist activity penetrating from border states like Afghanistan as a major security concern, particularly affecting its Muslim minority in Xinjiang. Chinas authoritarian regime perceives the alleged vulnerability of Xinjiangs Muslim population as a threat, making a stable Afghanistan crucial. Thus, China maintains a cautious approach to collaboration with the Taliban, declaring that it never interferes in Afghanistans internal affairs, never seeks selfish interests in Afghanistan, and never pursues so-called sphere of influence.

What Does This Mean for India?

Indias approach towards Afghanistan balances the expectations of Western allies in addition to its own regional considerations. Indias primary considerations with respect to Afghanistan are to contain the spread of terrorism and prevent a pro-Pakistani regime in Afghanistan. Now that the Taliban, which India perceives as a proxy of Pakistan, is in power, India must decide what level of engagement it should have with the de facto government while balancing its concerns over historic terror group connections the Taliban maintains. However, Indias geopolitical relationships with Western nations and principles of democracy and human rights hinder its recognition of the Taliban, unlike China.

Indias approach to dealing with the Taliban emphasizes promoting peace without direct involvement. Initially, India supported the UNSCs Resolution 2593 and the double-peace initiative. The double-peace initiative proposed two steps towards peace in Afghanistan: internal dialogue and external dialogue. Resolution 2593 condemned the Kabul Airport attack and highlighted the urgency of aid in Afghanistan, but China abstained from supporting it. Immediately after the fall of Kabul, India launched Operation Devi Shakti to evacuate Indians and maintained embassy operations, which facilitated the successful Emergency-X-Misc visa policy that introduced quick e-visas to migrants.

India maintains a line of communication with the Taliban, and also continued to provide aid to Afghans through infrastructure, education, capacity building, and community development. In 2022, India dispatched a technical mission to Afghanistan to assess the situation on the ground and suggest policy measures. Since then, India provided over 80 million pounds of wheat, almost 150 thousand pounds of pharmaceuticals, 500,000 COVID-19 vaccine doses, and 13 batches of medical supplies. The extent of active investment from India indicates that Afghanistan is of critical importance to the country and its competition with Chinese influence. Nevertheless, the two states can find a ground to cooperate over matters of mutual interest.

Keeping in view the persistent stakes of both India and China in Afghanistan, the closure of the Afghan Embassy in India challenges Indias wait and watch policy. However, if India revives the operation of the Afghan Embassy on its soil to provide aid and compete with Chinas influence on the country, it cannot do so without recognizing the Taliban regime. While recognizing the Taliban entails the burden of recognizing their ties to terrorist groups and their harsh treatment of women, silence could damage India-Afghanistan relations and erode the Afghan peoples trust in India- enabling China to replace it as the supportive regional power.

If India revives the operation of the Afghan Embassy on its soil to provide aid and compete with Chinas influence on the country, it cannot do so without recognizing the Taliban regime

Contest or Collaboration?

Since India and China hold a shared interest in countering terrorism and promoting regional stability, cooperation is a preferable option for both states. If both develop a collaborative approach towards Afghanistan, they can prevent the country from further fragmentation. India should cooperate with China in Afghanistan by using regional platforms, like the SCO, to forge consensus over terrorism and instability in Afghanistan as a collective security threat.

The arrival of the Chinese ambassador in Afghanistan in September 2023 ended the question of Chinas recognition of the Taliban regime. For India, however, the dilemma persists. With the termination of the Afghan mission in India that had been in place since the tenure of Ashraf-Ghani, India is once again in a catch-22.

If India prioritizes humanitarianism over restoring diplomatic relations, China is likely to have an uncontested space to advance its influence in the region. Chinas influence in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Maldives has already challenged Indias regional dominance. Gaining a foothold in Afghanistan will not only allow China to influence Indias relationship with Afghanistan, but also with Iran and Central Asian states. Therefore, Indian officials ought to coordinate with Chinese officials to build stability in Afghanistan since it would best serve the respective interests of both India and China.

Also Read:Two Years After Taliban Takeover: What is Indias Afghanistan Policy?

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Image 1: Afghanistan flag via Flickr

Image 2: PM Modi with former President Ghani via Wikimedia Commons

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Afghanistan's Fate in the Balance: China and India's Quest for ... - South Asian Voices

International NGO Muslim Hands has come to the aid of people in Afghanistan by providing 650,000 worth of emergency humanitarian aid just this year alone. The country has been facing an ongoing humanitarian crisis, that continues to reach unprecedented levels, leaving millions of Afghans struggling to survive. A collapsed economy and sky rocketing food prices means that hunger is widespread, with ninety percent of the population food insecure. The UK announced its aid budget cuts in August by seventy-six percent for Afghanistan, which means that more Afghans are likely to join those on the verge of starvation, as emergency aid reaches fewer people. Muslim Hands has been working in Afghanistan for twenty years providing emergency aid, winter relief as well as long-term interventions such as WASH and orphan sponsorship.

For a four-month period, Muslim Hands is supporting ten bread bakeries in Kabul, from August to November, aiming to reach 10,000 people every day with flat bread, a fundamental staple as part of the Afghan diet. Emergency food parcels have continued to be distributed, reaching over 3,000 families, with each parcel containing nutritious staples such as flour, rice, and kidney beans.

Towards the end of 2023, Afghanistan was hit by a devastating earthquake in the early hours of 7th October in the region of Herat. Over 3,000 people were killed mainly women and children, and numerous villages were decimated with 1300 homes destroyed. Those impacted in Herat lost everything, with no choice but to sleep outdoors, the realities of the harsh winter months are now being felt. Muslim Hands provided over 110,000 worth of emergency aid, which included food parcels as well as blankets, hygiene kits and clothing.

Asif from Herat province was impacted by the earthquake, he told our teams: There were eleven people in my family, five of them were killed and six of them are still alive. I lost my two sons, my sister-in-law along with her children. We also lost our livestock and everything we owned is now buried under the rubble. Nothing is left. The weather here is cold, its unbearable. The nights are particularly cold, and we urgently need shelter for the upcoming harsh winter months.

Since 2001, at least 5.9 million Afghans have fled their homeland or been internally displaced. Many are now living in informal settlements, that often leave them facing difficult environmental conditions and illness. The recent order by the Pakistan government requesting 1.7 million Afghans to leave Pakistan, with some having settled in the country for nearly twenty years, will return with much uncertainty and worries of a bleak future, with no shelter and employment. These ongoing deportations from various countries are likely to worsen the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan. Since the order of leave from Pakistan, Muslim Hands has provided 6,000 cooked meals daily to nearly 300,000 returnees on the Torkham border.

With the harsh winter conditions now being felt and snowfall already reported, many of those returning may settle in camps, facing what possibly could be another harsh winter. Last year Afghanistan faced its harshest winter in over a decade, where temperatures can drop as low as minus 35 degrees. Already millions of Afghans are unable to protect themselves from the elements, unable to afford the basics of fuel or coal. Muslim Hands will be providing 50,000 worth of winter aid including blankets, winter clothing, food, and fuel.

Yasrab Shah, Muslim Hands Fundraising Director said: We are humbled by the generosity of our donors, who continue to give so we can reach more people every year. They have enabled us to be respond to the needs of the people all year-round including pivotal times such asemergencies. With our winter distributions underway, 600,000 will provide essential items to some of the worlds poorest communities. The people of Afghanistan continue to face hardship upon hardship and with the scale of our emergency response just in this year alone, shows how important our intervention is, which can mean the difference between life and death.

ENDS

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Press Release - Muslim Hands

SAN ANTONIO - New, exclusive video from the Texas Department of Public Safety shows the bold actions of the cartels on the Texas border.

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Although many of the explosives seen in Mexico are homemade, the number of those coming from Afghanistan has also gone up.

Our Yami Virgin found out that this is nothing new.

Under the veil of darkness in an exclusive video captured by Texas DPS, you can see what cartel members were doing this weekend just across the small Texas island of Fronton. It's in the middle of the Rio Grande between the U.S. and Mexico.

Fronton is an island that was often used by cartels to move their goods, but it's now protected by DPS.

The explosives you see are believed to be homemade. They're far from the images that most here in Texas are used to seeing when we talk about violence in Mexico.

Gun violence used to be the norm, but now, the trend has turned to explosions.

"In an act that we have not seen before here, with improvised explosives, seven explosives were detonated killing six and injuring 12, said Enrique Alfaro, Governor of Jalisco, Mexico.

Reports of explosions and mines have gone up, especially just across the border, in the last 18 months.

And the way the improvised explosives are built is more like those seen in the Middle East, according to retired Homeland Security Investigations Special Agent In Charge Ari Jimenez.

"They have a pipe with a round base. And then the top, instead of using the regular cap that we've seen in the past, it is more like conical, like a triangle with a point," Jimenez said. "It's intended to make maximum damage.

But Jimenez says the type of weapons has also evolved.

The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, which is a U.S. government entity, estimated that about $7 billion of new equipment was left in Afghanistan after the United States' quick departure.

There's also an additional $18 billion of equipment we gave the Afghan National Army, the entity reports.

"We have seen some of the ground munitions, and those are the ones that initially we saw them crossing the borders of Pakistan in India," Jimenez said. "We saw them in that area and or fighting them, we saw them deployed in Yemen.

Yami Virgin asked how the cartels eventually made contact with Afghanis to by the weapons.

"Many of these arms dealers are taking data equipment and smuggling. Just like we see the smuggling of precursors for fentanyl from China. We have seen the smuggling of weapons, in merchandise in containers from China, from other parts the of the world, to Mexico. And this is how they're bringing all this armament back to our backyard," Jimenez said.

And keeping these explosives and weapons out of the U.S. is also of concern, according to Jimenez.

"Unfortunately, we're sitting in a moment in time where we do have an open border. We have a mess in the border. 80% of the Border Patrol agents are tasked with administrative jobs. So when we used to have 50 border patrol agents in an area holding the line, now, you don't have 50. Now you might have 10, and 40 are back in the office work and administrators job, Jimenez said.

While most of the migrants crossing and asking for asylum come looking for a better life, it is those who are found to be on the watchlist and those who go under the radar that are of concern, officials say.

DPS says they have to help to protect the border, and the images of Fronton Island are an example of why.

"It's a very dangerous area where these cartels are operating on both sides." said DPS Lt. Chris Olivarez. "And that's why it was so important for us to gain full control.

'We have to realize that we're about to have a war crossing our border. We'll talk about the last 10 years, the war with the cartels in Mexico, and how many people die every year in that war. And many times, every politician from Washington will tell you, 'oh the border is secure.' And what is it going to take? Is it going to take for them to finally cross over and continue killing people and using explosives in this side of the border? That's the question. Jimenez said.

Continued here:
U.S. bombs left in Afghanistan are ending up in the hands of ... - KEYE TV CBS Austin

Suhail Shaheen, the head of the Islamic Emirate's Qatar-based Political Office, said the UN acted without neutrality in determining the seat of Afghanistan.

In an interview with RTA, Shaheen said that the UN uses Afghanistans seat in the organization as pressure on the Islamic Emirate, urging the organization to handover the seat to the current Afghan government.

This [UN] is a big organization and they always talk about law and legality and human rights and they claim to be neutral, but they are not neutral in this position, he noted.

He said the current Afghan government needs to take into account the legitimate demands of the people of Afghanistan.

"We should also take into account the wishes of the people and pay attention to those issues, not because we accept the wishes of foreigners definitively, but for the sake of the people, Suhail Shaheen further noted.

The head of the Islamic Emirate's Qatar-based Political Office added that the meetings that have been held in connection with Afghanistan in the past two years without the presence of a representative of the Islamic Emirate, have not had any results for the country and will not have any results in the future either.

Shaheen called the existence of the Islamic Emirate's Qatar-based Political Office the political gateway of the Islamic Emirate to the world, saying that thirteen embassies of foreign countries for Afghanistan operate from Qatar.

"In addition to the Qatar political office, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs needs to become more active so that Afghanistan's diplomatic relations and foreign policy become better than this, said Najibullah Jami, a political analyst.

"The office can also be a good mediator because they can effectively solve the issue of Afghanistan, which is an economic and political crisis and it has not been recognized yet, said Javid Momand, a university lecturer.

Suhail Shaheen continued to criticize the United States for its failure to live up to its promises, saying that not a single one of its agreements with the Islamic Emirate of Doha has been met.

He emphasized that world perceptions of the current Afghan government have changed over the past two years, and that there are hopes for the Islamic Emirate to be recognized.

See more here:
Shaheen: UN Using Afghanistans Seat to Pressure Kabul - TOLOnews

Former Afghan President Hamid Karzai recently reiterated the importance of reopening schools and universities for girls in Afghanistan.

In a meeting with Irans ambassador, Hassan Kazemi Qomi and a senior member of Irans Strategic Foreign Relations Council, Karzai stressed that educating girls and boys is vital for Afghanistans prosperity.

Karzai emphasized the need for a national discourse as the only path to achieving peace and stability in Afghanistan.

Since the Taliban takeover on August 15, 2021, girls schools above grade six and universities for female students have been closed.

Many experts argue that there is no justification for keeping schools closed, and they urge the caretaker government to take concrete steps to reopen them.

Over two years have passed since the closure of girls schools above grade six and nearly one year since the suspension of higher education for female students.

As the academic year is about to end in Afghanistan, there is still uncertainty about whether these bans will be lifted in the new academic year.

Karzais advocacy for girls education aligns with his vision for a brighter future for Afghanistan.

The issue of reopening schools for girls remains a pressing concern, with hopes for progress in the coming academic year.

Excerpt from:
Karzai emphasizes necessity of girls' and boys' education for ... - The Khaama Press News Agency