Trump says he wants to ‘win’ in Afghanistan. But what will that take? – Washington Examiner
President Trump promised troops in Afghanistan the night of his inauguration that "we're going to win," but keeping that promise will take more than just a military strategy, experts said.
Trump, speaking via video chat to troops deployed to Afghanistan at an inaugural ball for the military last month, said that he is with them "a 1,000 percent" and stressed that the U.S. will emerge from the 15-plus year conflict victorious.
"Keep fighting. We're going to win. We're going to win. I have your back. We're going to make America great again," Trump said.
It's a sentiment Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., echoed last week at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing that provided an update on the conflict in Afghanistan.
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"We've tied the hands of our military in Afghanistan, and instead of trying to win, we settled for just trying not to lose," McCain said in his opening statement.
A victory in Afghanistan will likely rely on a few military criteria: building up an Afghan military force that can defend itself without U.S. assistance; and either defeating the Taliban or pushing it back enough on the battlefield that the group is forced to come to the table to negotiate with the government.
But experts said it goes beyond that, to include leaving behind an Afghan government and economy that can support its people and work with Pakistan to crack down on the terrorism sanctuaries inside the country.
Accomplishing all of this will take more than just U.S. military might, said Marvin Weinbaum, an analyst with the Middle East Institute.
"I think that the idea of a military victory anywhere in the foreseeable future is unrealistic, very, very much so," he said.
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The best possible outcome, he said, is that the U.S. will "buy time" for the Afghans to build up the military and regrow the economy.
"That's giving them the opportunity to do what only they can do and that is help themselves," he said. "We can give them an opportunity to stay in the game."
One of the large unknowns in the new administration is Trump's view on what should be done in Afghanistan, besides winning. The issue went untouched during the campaign and Trump has said almost nothing about it since winning the presidency. He has over the years called the war a "disaster" and advocated pulling troops out.
The issue received new life last week, when Gen. John Nicholson, commander of the NATO mission in Afghanistan, acknowledged the battle is at a "stalemate" and that he believes "a few thousand more" troops are needed for the training mission. Those could come from the U.S. or other NATO countries.
Last summer, the Obama administration announced a plan to slow the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. The plan had been to bring the number of troops down from 9,800 to 5,500 by the end of the year. But Obama, acting on Nicholson's recommendation, increased that final number to 8,400.
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But working under those troop caps has proven onerous for U.S. commanders. Nicholson described how the 1st Infantry Division combat aviation brigade deployed with helicopters and pilots while their mechanics were left behind at Fort Riley, Kansas. He explained that it cost more to bring in private contractors to maintain the helicopters downrange, even as the military mechanics suffered reduced readiness levels back at Kansas with nothing to do.
The increase of NATO forces in the train, advise and assist mission that Gen. John Nicholson, the head of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, called for last week will be one small step toward buying the Afghans more time, Weinbaum said, but will not "turn the tide in a major way."
Lisa Curtis, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, said the U.S. is making positive steps toward reaching a victory in Afghanistan, but that one of the "major failings" in the U.S. strategy is the inability to work with Pakistan to crack down on Haqqani and Taliban sanctuaries in the country, something that's "critical" in declaring the 15 years of war a success. She suggested a change in U.S. strategy that would see the U.S. impose conditions on military aid to Pakistan.
Nicholson spoke to the Pakistan challenge as well, and said he would welcome the Trump administration getting involved and putting pressure on Islamabad.
"Sir, it's very difficult to succeed on the battlefield when your enemy enjoys external support and safe haven," he said. Nicholson acknowledged that Pakistan had conducted helpful missions in its largely unoverned tribal regions. Yet the country, along with Russia and Iran "continue to legitimize and support the Taliban," while undermining the efforts of the Afghan government.
Still, Curtis said the U.S. strategy is allowing the coalition to make progress.
"But I think the idea of backstopping the Afghan forces, continuing to conduct counterterrorism missions when necessary and supporting the Afghan government are the right steps, so I think we are moving in the right direction," she said.
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Trump says he wants to 'win' in Afghanistan. But what will that take? - Washington Examiner