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At the End of Afghanistan War, Most Doubt its Value
Jan 4, 2015 7:00am
Fewer than four in 10 Americans say the war in Afghanistan was worth fighting up from its low but still a broadly negative judgment on the United States longest conflict.
Asked to consider its costs vs. benefits, 38 percent in this ABC News/Washington Post poll say the war in Afghanistan was worth fighting; 56 percent say it was not. While still a negative view, thats eased from 28-67 percent in July 2013, as U.S. forces gradually have disengaged.
Americans divide essentially evenly on whether the conflict achieved its aim of improving long-term U.S. security, 48-47 percent. But only 19 percent say it contributed a great deal to the security of the United States, a key reason most say it wasnt worth fighting.
Despite these attitudes, the survey, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds majority support for plans to keep up to 10,000 U.S. forces in Afghanistan to train Afghan forces and assist in counter-insurgency operations in the year ahead: Fifty-four percent are in favor, though a substantial 43 percent are opposed.
The United States and its NATO allies officially ended their combat role in Afghanistan last week, 13 years after the U.S.-led invasion ousted the Taliban government in response to its support for the al Qaeda terrorist network. More than 2,200 U.S. soldiers were killed, as were more than 1,000 from allied nations and thousands of Afghan civilians.
The invasion initially enjoyed broad U.S. public support, but that ebbed as the conflict dragged on. A majority hasnt called the war worth fighting since 2009.
Assessments of whether the war improved U.S. security are central to views of whether it was worth the effort. Among the two in 10 Americans who say it bolstered security a great deal, 76 percent also say the war was worth fighting. Among those who see more modest security gains, fewer, but still 56 percent, say the same. Among the half who dont think it improved long-term security, by contrast, only 13 percent say the war was worth fighting, 85 percent not.
There also are strong political and ideological components to these views. Republicans and conservatives particularly those who say theyre very conservative are far more likely than independents, Democrats, moderates or liberals to see the war as worth fighting. That said, even among Republicans, just 23 percent say the war contributed a great deal to U.S. security.
METHODOLOGY This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 11-14, 2014, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,000 adults, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including design effect.
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At the End of Afghanistan War, Most Doubt its Value
Afghanistan's first lady steps into public eye with rural aid effort
To reach this remote district, a nine-person team from the Afghan presidential palace recently drove across rough, mountainous terrain where rock-covered paths turned to icy roads that repeatedly pushed their Toyota pickups to their limits.
When they reached a high school in Ruyi Du Ab, a two-hour drive from the capital of the northern province of Samangan, hundreds of men lined up to receive flour, sugar, rice, cooking oil, dates, blankets and rugs.
The community was still reeling from floods in the spring that left the largely agricultural area devastated. Farmers watched their crops and livestock wash away in the surging waters.
"There are families that didn't even have a single drinking glass left," one resident said.
An effort spearheaded by Afghanistan's new first lady, Rula Ghani, to get relief supplies to thousands of families as Afghans face winter has focused on remote areas where geography, climate and insecurity often hinder international aid efforts.
It is one of the first major projects undertaken by Ghani, who has said she wants a more public role than many of her predecessors, including Zinat Karzai, a gynecologist who was rarely seen in public.
In a country where most humanitarian assistance is distributed by the United Nations and Western aid agencies, Ghani's relief effort was funded by a $2-million grant from Saudi Arabia, part of a $130-million aid package that the government in Riyadh offered to Afghanistan during President Ashraf Ghani's visit in October.
Although President Ghani's administration has yet to decide on a Cabinet, the first lady's aid delivery was in part a way to show that the Afghan government could serve the country in ways other than politics. Yet it also carries risks for the first lady, a Lebanese-born Maronite Christian who has not concealed her background, which could be used against the president by conservative critics.
The last spouse of an Afghan leader to have a prominent public role was Queen Soraya, the wife of King Amanullah Khan, who ruled Afghanistan from 1919 to 1929. Soraya was politically active, serving as the king's education minister and joining his campaign against the conservative burka worn by some Afghan women.
For Ghani, who was active in charity work before her husband was elected president, the aid delivery was "an opportunity to not only reach the truly vulnerable but also for us to get a better sense of exactly what it takes to help those who find themselves in consistent need," she said in an interview in her office at the presidential palace.
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Afghanistan's first lady steps into public eye with rural aid effort
Post-ABC poll: Support for Afghanistan war rises as combat mission ends
After falling to record lows, support for the Afghanistan war has risensince 2013, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll that also finds majority support for a plan to keep thousands of troops in the country in the coming year.
Overall, Americans remain downbeat over the war at the end of NATOs 13-year combat mission. A 56 percent majority says it has not been worth fighting, continuing a negative streak that dates to 2010 in Post-ABC polls. But 38 percent in the new survey say the war was worth the costs, up eight points from December 2013 and 10 points from a record low that July (28 percent).
The bounce-back in positive views is driven by a dramatic reversal of opinion among Republicans. Only 39 percent of Republicans said the war was worth fighting in late 2013, but 56 percent believe sotoday, marking an end to a massive downward slide since 2009. In the early months of Barack Obamas presidency, as many as 77 percent of Republicans said the war was worth fighting.
Support for the war also increased among political independents in the past year, from 26 to 35 percent, though roughly six in 10 independents and Democrats alike continue to say the war was not worth it.
Despite the overall negative appraisal, over half of Americans (54 percent) favor keeping U.S. troops in the country to help Afghan forces train and perform counter-insurgency roles. The residual force garners rare cross-partisan support, including at least half of Republicans (66 percent), Democrats (52 percent) and independents (51 percent).
At peak levels, in 2010 and 2011, the U.S. had 100,000 troops in Afghanistan. That number has fallen dramatically since then and will drop to10,000 in 2015 and half that by 2016. With the U.S.-led NATO combat mission officially over, about half of the American troops remaining are expected to serve in a new NATO operation advising and training Afghan security forces and half will service in a separate U.S.-only contingent focused on force protection, logistical support and counterterrorism.
Americans are split down the middle on the question of whether the Afghan war, launched in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, has made the U.S. more secure. Forty-eight percent say it has made the U.S. more secure while 47 percent say otherwise, marking a modest improvement from 2013, when 50 percent doubted the impact of the fight on U.S. security. Few see major benefits, however, with 19 percent saying the war has contributed a great deal to national security.
Partisan divisions return on this issue, with nearly two in three Republicans saying the war has contributed to U.S. security (65 percent), while most Democrats say it has not and independents split more evenly.
Theuptick in positive views of the Afghan war overall comes after a pivotal year that saw a drawdown in NATO forces, the election of President Ashraf Ghani and the signing by Afghan officials of a bilateral security agreement allowing U.S. and NATO forces to remain in the country. The shift also follows months of U.S. military efforts to prevent Iraq from being overrun by Islamic State militants, emboldening critics who say the Obama administration withdrew hastily from a war he promised to end.
Last year also sawthe Obama administration release five Guantanamo Bay detainees in a prisoner swap for Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl, who left his post in Afghanistan in 2009. A July Post-ABC poll found 39 percent approved of the exchange, while 51 percent disapproved.
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Post-ABC poll: Support for Afghanistan war rises as combat mission ends