As a former World Bank official, Afghanistan's new president has helped develop economic programs for Russia, India and China. But it is in his homeland that Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai faces the greatest fiscal challenge of his career.
As coalition troops depart and with future foreign aid levels uncertain, Afghanistan is racked by an estimated 35% unemployment rate and a notable dip in small-business activity since the spring. Ghani, a former Afghan finance minister, acknowledges that the road forward will be difficult.
"We are no longer in a light recession; it's either a very deep, biting recession or the beginning of a depression," he told reporters recently.
In 2012 alone, Afghanistan received $6.7 billion in foreign assistance. But today Ghani must keep a realistic outlook, recognizing that 13 years of corruption allegations do not instill confidence in world capitals weary of their already lengthy involvement in the country.
"2015 is not 2009," Ghani said. "Tens of billions of dollars of assistance and hundreds of thousands of international soldiers are not going to show up.... International assistance requires accountability."
Washington says it remains committed to "seeing Afghanistan succeed" but plans to take a cautious economic approach.
James B. Cunningham, the U.S. ambassador, said at a recent news briefing that the chances of any "new money" being filtered into the country were low.
For the 32 million Afghans now led by Ghani, the presidential campaign marked a long period of uncertainty that many worry could be a precursor to even more difficult times ahead.
Ghani has said that during the 10-month campaign Afghanistan lost an estimated $5 billion to $6 billion in economic activity because of investor and consumer unease.
In Kabul, the capital, building painter Toryalai has begun working instead as a taxi driver to make ends meet. The 27-year-old, who, like many Afghans, goes by one name, said the economic burdens of being newly engaged and not having enough work have led him to think about suicide.
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Afghanistan's new president faces a campaign-scarred economy