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Even with gains through midday Tuesday of better than 4%, to nearly $222, shares in the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase are down about 13% since June 12, when they closed around $255. Over that same span, Bitcoin prices have dropped about 9% to approximately $62,000.

The equally weighted S&P 500the version of the index that makes no distinction between the market cap of companieshas grown a modest 0.27% this month, but nonetheless it highlights how the exchange is underperforming compared with the wider market.

Yet its also important to note that Coinbase is still in the midst of a major comeback. The crypto market has rallied massively since the end of last year, and Coinbase, the worlds second-largest exchange, has enjoyed something of a renaissance thanks to soaring transaction revenue. Despite the recent dip in share price, Coinbase stock has skyrocketed year to date alongside Bitcoinits up better than 40%, with the original cryptocurrency making similar gains.

When Coinbase stock slumps its often a reflection of digital assets writ large given how much of the companys revenue comes from trading fees. In the first quarter of the year, transactions made up 67% of revenue. On Monday, trading volume was $788.3 million, whereas on March 4 it was almost $3.2 billion.

Volume has pulled back quite a bit, and the price has come back from the peak in the first quarter somewhat. So [Coinbase] is going to get lower profitability in the second quarter, Paul Gulberg, a senior equity analyst atBloombergIntelligence, told Fortune.

Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana are down about 11%, 9%, and 18%, respectively, and each has failed to gain momentum since mid-March. A key reason is the lagging performance of the 11 spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which the SEC approved in January. Since then, the price of the underlying asset, Bitcoin, has ebbed and flowed with large sums moving in and out of these products. The latest string of net outflows from the ETFs began on June 10, and theyve continued every day, except for one, totaling around $1.3 billion, according to CoinGlass data. Its the longest stretch of outflows since the products debuted.

Not only do the outflows affect Coinbase because of their ties to Bitcoin, the company is the custodian for eight of the 11 ETFs, for which it receives a 0.2% fee. Outflows mean theyre holding less Bitcoin, ergo generating less revenue.

Additionally, Coinbase holds over $207 million worth of Bitcoin, making it the public company with the sixth-largest exposure. Shares of MicroStrategy, the company that holds the most Bitcoin, are down about 8% since June 12.

However, Gulberg thinks that the bigger factor in Coinbases recent stock drop is sentiment, with so many of the firms shares held by retail traders: When you get a lot of noise and activity in the digital asset space, people rush into Bitcoin and Coinbase. And vice versa: When the sentiment dies and slows down, people rush out of Coinbase.

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Coinbase down 9% this month, aligned with Bitcoin's tumble - Fortune

A German Government (BKA) labeled cryptocurrency wallet has sold over $54 million worth of Bitcoin.

The German governments wallet sold 900 Bitcoin (BTC) in three individual transactions on June 25.

The first 200 BTC transaction was sent to the Coinbase exchange, while the second 200 BTC transfer was sent to the Kraken exchange.

However, a third transaction, worth 500 BTC, or over $30 million, was sent to wallet 139Po, which remains unknown, according to onchain intelligence provider Arkham Intelligence.

While wallet 139Po remains unknown, it is not the first time the German government has interacted with it. The German government previously sent 800 BTC to the address on June 20 and another 500 BTC on June 19, just six days ago.

Following todays transfers, the wallet still holds 46,359 Bitcoin, according to Arkham Intelligence.

Related: Over $122M Bitcoin longs liquidated as BTC falls below $61K

The government-labeled wallet holds over $2.8 billion worth of BTC and could introduce significant selling pressure that could tank Bitcoins price below the key $60,000 psychological mark.

Bitcoin price has been in a downtrend, falling 11% on the monthly chart and over 7% on the weekly, trading just above $61,000 as of 9:40 am UTC, according to Bitstamp data.

According to popular analyst Willy Woo, technical chart patterns suggest that Bitcoin might experience a correction lasting up to four weeks before its price rally resumes.

The analyst wrote in a June 22 X post to his over 1.1 million followers:

Related: Ether restakings biggest risk is lack of understanding around asset looping Haven1

The German government-labeled wallet first sparked suspicions of potential Bitcoin selling on June 19, when it executed a 6,500 BTC transfer worth over $425 million.

Besides the transfer to the untagged wallets, the majority of the Bitcoin is transferred to centralized exchanges,which signals that the government is potentially looking to sell Bitcoin.

Prior to the transfer, the wallet held nearly 50,000 BTC since February 2024. The funds are believed to have been seized from the pirated movie website operator Movie2k.

However, July could introduce more Bitcoin selling pressure since collapsed cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox announced that would start repaying its defunct users.

More than $9.4 billion worth of Bitcoin is owed to approximately 127,000 Mt. Gox creditors, who have been waiting for over 10 years to recover their funds. This could introduce significant selling pressure for Bitcoin.

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German gov't offloads 900 Bitcoin, 400 BTC sent to Coinbase and Kraken - Cointelegraph

Mt. Goxs scheduled repayments of $8.5 billion worth of Bitcoin to creditors in July may not cause as much mayhem for the price of Bitcoin as many expect, say analysts.

IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore told Cointelegraph there were simply too many historical factors to make a concrete prediction about the impact of the upcoming repayments, but estimated around half of the total Bitcoin (BTC) worth roughly $4.5 billion could be set to hit the market in July.

Mt. Gox was a Japanese cryptocurrency exchange that collapsed after being hacked in February 2014. The exchange lost around 940,000 BTC, which was worth just $64 million at the time.

Mt. Gox recovered 141,687 BTC to return to its creditors, which is worth $8.5 billion at the time of publication. This sum will start to be paid out to creditors at the beginning of July.

Despite the potential upcoming flood of Bitcoin onto the market, Sycamore said he believes that much of the supposed Mt. Gox sell pressure is already priced into the current market conditions.

The repayments have been coming for a long time, he said.

The repayments are happening against the backdrop of deteriorating market sentiment, technical selling, and outflows from the Bitcoin ETFs, said Sycamore, adding that much of the speculative hot money in crypto had left to chase greener pastures in mega-stocks like Nvidia and Apple in the equities market.

Speaking to Bitcoins price action more broadly, Sycamore said hes not convinced that the current sell-off can plunge too much deeper. He pointed to strong support on the 200-day moving average as a reason for optimism in the coming weeks.

I think weve just had a flush. The cause of the flush is all of these effects culminating in the expectations of Mt. Gox selling, he said, adding:

In a June 25 poston X, Galaxy Digitals head of research, Alex Thorn, estimated that only 65,000 of the 141,000 total Bitcoin stands to actually hit the market, significantly reducing much of the expected selling activity.

Related: 4-week correction for Bitcoin? Mt. Gox, Germany gov't add sell-pressure

Thorn predicted that roughly 75% of creditors have opted to receive an early payout, sacrificing 10% of their repayment in the process and resulting in an approximate 95,000 BTC hitting the market initially.

He added that 20,000 BTC is owed to claims funds, and roughly 10,000 BTC is owed to Bitcoinica BK, leaving just 65,000 to regular creditors.

Additionally, Thorn explained several reasons for believing that individual Mt. Gox creditors would be more diamond-handed than the market expects.

He noted that most of the creditors were skewed toward being long-term Bitcoiners who are more likely to hold their Bitcoin and stressed that many individual creditors resisted years of compelling and aggressive offers from claims offering payouts in United States dollars, suggesting they wanted their Bitcoin back, not fiat currency.

He also pointed to the impact of capital gains tax on sellers, saying that while original creditors receive only a 15% in-kind recovery, many claim holders have notched a 140 times gain since the bankruptcy proceedings recovered their Bitcoin.

Thorn said the potential selling pressure on Bitcoin Cash (BCH) would likely be far worse since many investors never actually bought BCH outright, only receiving it due to the hard fork of Bitcoin that occurred in 2017.

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Mt. Gox repayments won't be as bad for Bitcoin as you think - Cointelegraph

Crypto researcher Trade The Flow on Thursday offered trading ideas to navigate the current sideways price action in the crypto markets.

What Happened: Trade The Flow suggested that long/short pair trading could be an effective strategy in these choppy conditions and offered several trade ideas.

Among his suggestions were long positions on Bitcoin BTC/USD and Ethereum ETH/USD, paired with short positions on Litecoin LTC/USD and Cardano ADA/USD, respectively. He reasoned that BTC and ETH are leading the market and have potential catalysts ahead like the Ethereum ETF, while LTC and ADA lack network effect and real activity.

Among his many strategies, he suggests longing Pendle PENDLE/USD, and shorting Ondo Finance ONDO/USD. Although both have similar narratives there are huge discrepancies in their protocol metrics.

In the meme coin universe, he includes longing Pepe PEPE/USD and shorting Shiba Inu SHIB/USD, as the former is the most established meme of crypto culture that continues to catch a lot of market attention. Shiba Inu's time has passed in his opinion.

Meanwhile, on the PEPE/ETH pair, the trader stated, "If you see PEPE as a high beta for ETH, then this pair trade can smoothen a bit your drawdown if the market is down, but you still have a lot of upside if it goes up."

Also Read: Heres How Bitcoin And Altcoins Will Behave Until Fed Cuts Rates, According To Veteran Crypto Analyst

Why It Matters: Trade The Flows insights provide a unique perspective on the current market conditions and potential trading strategies. His suggestions for long/short pair trading could help traders navigate the markets volatility and potentially generate profits even in a bearish market.

However, as with any trading strategy, traders need to do their research and consider their risk tolerance before making any trades. As Trade The Flow himself noted, "There are infinite combinations of pair trade, and this is just a glimpse of some of them."

The trader added that these types of trades enable to be more market neutral and smoothen profit & loss to the downside and build a bigger position.

Whats Next: The influence ofBitcoin as an institutional asset classis expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzingas upcomingFuture of Digital Assetsevent on Nov. 19.

Read Next: Raoul Pal Foresees Crypto Boom In Election Years Q4, Names It Banana Zone

This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Image: Shutterstock

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Top Trader Is Long Bitcoin, Ethereum, Short Litecoin, Cardano...And Thinks Shiba Inu's Time Has Passed - Benzinga

Bitcoin's recent weakness could be signaling an upcoming correction in stocks, according to Stifel's chief equity analyst Barry Bannister. Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $73,797.68 on March 14 before quickly correcting, and it has struggled to hold the $70,000 mark since, barring a handful of blips. On Thursday, the S & P 500 briefly touched 5,500 for the first time after notching its most recent record close earlier in the week. Historically, the S & P 500 averages flat for about six months after bitcoin peaks, and past cycles point to a topping in the benchmark stock index, Bannister said in a note Wednesday. "Weakening bitcoin signals an imminent S & P 500 summer correction and consolidation phase," he said. "With the S & P 500 now at the very high end (2 sigma) of bitcoin post-peak cycle overlays since 2011, we have yet another strong signal that an imminent S & P 500 correction is possible." He added that high beta tech stocks such as Nvidia are especially vulnerable heading into the third quarter. The S & P 500 could fall to 4,750, a roughly 13% drop from current levels, by the end of the summer, he told CNBC's "Closing Bell Overtime" earlier this week. Many see bitcoin as "digital gold," but Bannister said he sees it as a speculative instrument driven by excess dollar liquidity. As such, it's always been sensitive to dovish Federal Reserve pivots. In 2020, it became closely correlated with the Nasdaq 100 when the central bank injected trillions of dollars of rescue money into the economy during the Covid-19 crisis. Currently, the market finds itself in an asset bubble now that the "corona-cash" has migrated from consumers to corporations. "Mopping up that liquidity has just begun (and may never be accomplished), but since that dump we have seen politically destabilizing sequential bubbles which first inflated consumer prices and now asset prices," Bannister said. Expectations for a summer correction aren't based on bitcoin alone, however. Stifel said he expects "a case of moderate stagflation" a combination of high inflation, high unemployment and stagnant demand to tighten financial conditions and expose the S & P's high price-earnings ratio. Bannister also said investors may be in a "full-fledged bubble/mania mode which looks past our concerns." "Timing is everything," he wrote. "Past bubbles since the 19th century indicate the S & P 500 could well rise to ~6,000 at year-end 2024 and then round trip to near where 2024 began five quarters later, by ~1Q26 (S & P 500 ~4,800)."

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Bitcoin's recent weakness signals an imminent S&P 500 correction, according to Stifel - CNBC