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Bitcoin (BTC) dipped as low as $59,500 on Binance ahead of tomorrows Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market participants are bracing for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), with expectations set for unchanged interest rates.

The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a mere 4.4% of economists predict a rate cutthe first in over a decadewhile a dominant 95.6% anticipate rates to hold steady between 525-550 basis points.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market data indicates a 36% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. Four months ago, the likelihood of maintaining current rates was only about 3%.

Expectations have also shifted to just one reduction this year. Previously, the market anticipated six rate cuts. Additionally, the probability of experiencing two or more rate cuts has diminished to 31%.

Amidst this financial climate, the US grapples with stagflation risks as inflation persists and economic growth slows.

The first quarter of 2024 saw GDP growth decelerate to 1.6%, falling short of the 2.2% forecast and down from the previous quarters 3.4%. Concurrently, the US Core PCE inflation index climbed from 2.0% to 3.7%.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent data does not make the Fed more confident, suggesting a longer timeline to regain economic stability. He expressed belief in the adequacy of current policies to navigate the risks at hand, hinting at sustained high-interest rates without increases.

Bitcoins trajectory mirrored these economic uncertainties, dropping below $62,000 earlier in the week due to renewed stagflation worries.

A brief rally above $64,000 occurred with the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong yesterday, but the momentum was short-lived as investor caution set in ahead of the Feds key decision.

The market also observed a notable slowdown in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, with BlackRocks iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) pausing new inflows for several daysa first since its debut. Meanwhile, other funds have seen continued outflows, including Grayscale Investments.

Bitcoins price has been static since the fourth halving event. According to data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin is currently trading at around $60,100, down over 6% in the last 24 hours, and will likely end its continuous growth streak, which has lasted since last September.

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Bitcoin price wobbles ahead of Fed's rate decision - Crypto Briefing

Bitcoin (BTC) heads into the April monthly close on an uncertain footing as BTC price action falls to 10-day lows.

The largest cryptocurrency continues to tread water beneath significant resistance levels after a week of sustained selling during Wall Street trading hours.

Macro and geopolitical instability have added to what has become a potent mixture for Bitcoin bulls to grapple with this month can they turn things around?

The April candle close has just days left to avoid becoming Bitcoins worst month of 2024 so far.

The immediate landscape remains problematic seller interest between the spot price and new all-time highs is considerable, and while price discovery is only around $12,000 away, such levels seem firmly out of reach.

Market observers are thus looking the other way to key areas of support should downside pressure keep piling on.

Optimists argue that BTC/USD is merely ranging, meanwhile, and that time will produce a bull market continuation of the sort enjoyed in Q1.

Its comeback may be helped by a dose of deja vu this week less than four months after the United States, Hong Kong is set to launch its own spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Cointelegraph takes a look at these key topics and more in the weekly rundown of all things BTC price-related.

The weekly close provided little respite for battered Bitcoin traders as BTC/USD continued dropping into the Asia session.

Hitting lows of $61,943 on Bitstamp, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, the pair thus saw its lowest levels since April 19.

The week prior, relief bounces toward $65,000 had repeatedly encountered selling pressure around the Wall Street open which commentators including popular trader Skew attributed to U.S. automated trading algorithms.

I do see the potential for longer crab between $67K - $58K till proper flow supported breakout, he continued in fresh analysis on X on April 29.

Bears have so far failed to keep the market below $60,000 for long. Even at current levels around $62,000, however, April is on track to deliver more than 12% losses.

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass confirms that this would make it Bitcoins worst-performing month since November 2022 the height of the latest bear market.

Skew continued that wherever it ends up, the monthly close would form a key new BTC price focus in its own right.

1M close is in 2days roughly, following that close monthly & weekly open will act as very pivotal levels, he wrote, describing one-month timeframes as not bad at all and reiterating the significance of $58,000 as support.

Significant macroeconomic events keep coming this week with the next interest rates decision by the United States Federal Reserve.

While markets expect no surprises from the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), recent macro data prints have concerned risk-asset bulls. Lower rates may come much later than anticipated at the start of the year, they fear, as shown in estimates from CME Groups FedWatch Tool.

We have a massive week ahead of us, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in its weekly macro outlook thread on X.

It is not just FOMC; headlining the weeks macro events is accompanying commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on May 1, followed by jobless claims and unemployment data on May 2 and 3, respectively.

For Bitcoin and risk assets, however, all may not be so bad unless views turn to favor a significant worsening of economic circumstances.

Worst case scenario would be consecutively bad spells for risk assets & potentially leads to bets of economy somehow breaking apart, Skew explained about the outlook.

Some signs of stress are clearly apparent this week. The U.S. witnessed a fresh regional bank failure, while in Japan, the yen hit its lowest levels against the dollar since 1990 in flash volatility, passing 160 before rebounding.

Sticking in Asia, the coming week marks a seminal moment in Bitcoin institutional adoption.

Like the U.S. in January, Hong Kong is about to open the doors to spot Bitcoin ETFs and anticipation of copycat interest and price impact is already building.

Citing a 2022 report from crypto exchange Huobi, Willy Woo, creator of on-chain statistics platform Woobull, underscored what could be serious demand for spot ETF products.

The Asian market in user count is BIGGER than the US and European markets combined, part of an X post noted.

In a preliminary report on the upcoming release, blockchain research and advisory group House of Chimera put potential inflows at $25 billion, citing estimates from crypto financial services platform Matrixport.

The substantial capital potential might lead to increased liquidity and possibly stabilize Bitcoin prices, it wrote on X.

House of Chimera noted that investor participation from mainland China which would represent a key turnaround in a country that has repeatedly attempted to quash crypto activity could end up restricted due to regulatory hurdles.

While the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong is a landmark development, its success and impact on the broader market will depend heavily on regulatory environments, investor sentiment, and macroeconomic factors influencing cryptocurrency valuations, it concluded.

As Bitcoin lingers close to significant support levels among them, $60,000 and $58,000 one trendline, in particular, is beginning to stand out as a line in the sand.

As Cointelegraph reported, the aggregate cost basis of Bitcoins short-term holders (STHs) is now of interest to analysts.

This investor cohort corresponds to entities holding a portion of BTC for a maximum of 155 days, essentially making up the speculative end of the investor spectrum.

STH realized price, currently at just under $59,800, now forms a key level to watch. Throughout the recovery from 2022 bear market lows, it has acted as support, with only a brief period in September 2023 breaking the paradigm.

Will it hold as support this time? Philip Swift, creator of on-chain data platform Look Into Bitcoin, queried.

Two mid-term exponential moving averages, or EMAs, which form what is known as the bull market support band, are meanwhile also lining up to act as damage control in the event of a deeper retracement.

As we keep consolidating, the bull market support band is catching up to price, popular trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in his latest post on the topic.

In a potential sign of encouragement despite lackluster BTC price action, smaller retail investor interest is returning.

Related: Crypto trader sees best altseason since 2017 as Bitcoin price cools

As noted by Checkmate, the pseudonymous lead on-chain analyst at on-chain data platform Glassnode, wallets with less than 100 BTC are busy increasing exposure.

He referred to data from his own resource, Checkonchain, which showed 30-day rolling wallet balances flipping positive on April 8 for the first time since mid-January.

The Bitcoin retail holders, who are apparently degenerates who will sell on the first sign of a correction... ...appear to be stacking sats once again, he concluded.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Worst month since 2022 bear market? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week - Cointelegraph

Theres a very slight chance that Bitcoin has already reached its peak this cycle at the $70,000 mark, according to the exponential decay pattern floated by veteran trader Peter Brandt.

Of course, many other price models and predictors suggest Bitcoin (BTC)is still far from its cycle peak and could instead top out at the $210,000 mark before the end of the bull run.

On April 27, veteran trader and analyst Peter Brandt posted a theory suggesting that Bitcoins bull market cycles have exhibited an exponential decay pattern.

This occurs when each successive cycle has a peak price of only around 20% of the previous cycles peak gain. The data shows that this has happened in the last three Bitcoin market cycles.

Worded another way, 80% of the exponential energy of each successful bull market cycle has been lost, said Brandt.

Based on this decay rate, Brandt estimated the current cycle would only see a 4.5x gain from the low of around $15,500. Thus, the cycle top has been projected to be around $70,000 a level it already reached in March when prices topped $73,000.

However, Brandt isnt fully convinced by this theory, assigning a 25% probability that BTC has already peaked this cycle.

Others argue that alternate models also blow this theory out of the water.

On April 29, CEO and director of research at Quantonomy, Giovanni Santostasi, rebutted the exponential decay theory with one of his own based on long-term power law behavior.

Commenting on Brandts theory, he said, We have only 3 data points if we exclude the pre-halving period and actually only 2 data points if we consider the ratios, before adding, This is hardly enough data to do any significant statistical analysis.

Santostasi measured the percentage deviation of price peaks from the long-term power law trend, extrapolating a different exponential decay pattern.

A power law is a functional relationship where one quantity varies as a power of another quantity, in this case, BTC price over time.

Related: How high can Bitcoin go? New BTC price prediction sees cycle top at $180K

Using the figures extrapolated from the genesis block, this price model predicts a fourth cycle peak around December 2025 of around $210,000. The predicted bottom for the next cycle is around $83,000, based on historical observations, he said.

The analysis combines the power law trend, four-year halving cycles, exponentially decaying peak heights and other factors into an integrated model for Bitcoin price predictions.

Many more have made predictions about the Bitcoin peak during this cycle. Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin would at least double by the next halving in 2028, estimating a price of around $120,000.

Meanwhile, CEO of Acheron Trading and quantitative trading strategies expert Laurent Benayoun anticipates a potential cycle top of $180,000.

Fidelity Digital Assets revised its medium-term outlook for Bitcoin on April 22, stating that it is no longer cheap.

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $62,528, down 15% from its all-time high in mid-March, according to CoinGecko.

Magazine: Get Bitcoin or die tryin: Why hip hop stars love crypto

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Bitcoin top $70K or $210K? Analysts, price models clash over BTC cycle peak - Cointelegraph

Bitcoin and Ethereum led cryptocurrencies in liquidations as over 54,000 traders saw leveraged positions wiped out, and the total market cap neared $2.1 trillion.

CoinGlass reported that over $145 million was liquidated from the crypto market in 24 hours across exchanges. As most traders anticipated lower prices, $91 million of these trades were registered as short positions.

However, the total cryptocurrency market cap rose 1.2% per CoinGecko and liquidated the downside bets. A $4 million Bitcoin (BTC) position in a USDT pairing made the single largest liquidation order. The trade was on Binance, cryptos biggest exchange.

Traders also lost at least $70 million combined between BTC and Ethereum (ETH) across long and short punts.

BTC and ETH, the top cryptocurrencies by market cap, have seen price uptrends in the past week. The tokens have gained 3% and 11% in the last seven days amid bullish market sentiment.

Bitcoin ETF approvals by the U.S. SEC on Jan. 10 seem to be a main driving force in Bitcoins rally as it prices in at $51,800 and holds a market cap of over $1 trillion, making BTC the 10th largest asset in the world. There is also anticipation surrounding the Bitcoin halving, which is expected in April.

Some believe the halving, which slashes new block rewards in half, and BTC acquisitions for spot Bitcoin ETFs will trigger a supply crunch while demand increases. The leading hypothesis suggests this will cause a parabolic run for cryptos largest asset.

The Bitcoin halving is set to happen in April 2024. Here's what to expect First, let's reflect on the Previous Halving: In 2020, after the last halving, the block reward dropped to 6.25 BTC Bitcoin's hash rate dropped by 30% within two weeks. Bitcoin's miner difficulty pic.twitter.com/6hIsjAVPKK

Ethereums current momentum revolves around a technological upgrade dubbed Dencun. Developers have said the modifications will introduce expanded data availability for layer-2 rollups through a blob feature. This will allow L2s to add more data to each block, thus reducing transaction costs and bolstering scalability.

Dencun is slated to ship to Ethereums mainnet around mid-March following successful testing on three testnets: Goerli, Sepolia, and Holesky.

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Bitcoin, Ethereum lead crypto in $145m liquidation day - crypto.news

Bitcoin is breaking records as investors flock into new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the US with $2.45 billion flowing into the funds last week the highest weekly total ever.

In a new report, Kaiko attributed 99% of the inflows to the US market, with the majority of flows heading into spot Bitcoin ETFs such as Wall Street giant BlackRocks iShares Bitcoin Trust.

The iShares fund is one of 10 new ETFs to hit the market since the US Securities and Exchange Commission approved them on Jan. 10. It is the most successful ETF launch of all time.

Since its launch, the iShares Bitcoin Trust has had over $6 billion in inflows, followed by Fidelity Investments Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, at $4.3 billion.

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US platforms have dominated Bitcoin trading since late last year, consistently wielding over 50% of global market depth.

The increase in liquidity has been driven by US platforms and is likely linked to the spot ETF approvals, Kaiko wrote in its report.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in the bulk of this years $5.2 billion in Bitcoin inflows, a number hurt by outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, the incumbent ETF on the market.

CoinShares flows chart (Bloomberg/CoinShares)

Grayscale has seen $7 billion in outflows this year, as investors migrated to ETFs with lower fees such as the iShares Bitcoin Trust and Wise Origin.

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Grayscale outflows have slowed in recent weeks, but more trouble looms. Last week, a judge granted bankrupt crypto lender Genesiss request to offload $1.6 billion in Grayscale stock a move that banking giant JPMorgan said that will create selling pressure for Bitcoin and that could contribute to another $10 billion in outflows for Grayscale.

Still, Grayscales bleeding has been outpaced by inflows overall, indicating continued growth in the sector.

Bitcoins daily trading volume averaged more than $10 billion last week, Kaiko research shows. The firm noted that daily trading volume hasnt surpassed the 10-month high hit on January 10, the day before spot Bitcoin ETFs made their market debut in the US.

Kaiko Bitcoin flows chart (Kaiko)

The report showed that Bitcoin volumes are up and that average trade sizes are consistently above $1,000 per trade, a possible sign of institutional participation.

Tyler Pearson is a junior markets correspondent at DL News based out of Alberta, Canada. Got a hot tip? Reach out to him at ty@dlnews.com.

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Bitcoin ETFs notch best-ever week with $2.5bn haul amid signs bigger players are jumping in - DLNews