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2024 is going to be democracys biggest year ever. In a remarkable milestone in human history, over four billion people more than half of the worlds population across more than 40 countries will go to the polls.

National elections will be held in the United States, India, Indonesia, Russia, the United Kingdom, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Taiwan, Mexico, and South Africa to name just a few. The European Union will also go to the polls. This busy calendar of elections is as extraordinary for the diversity of nations and peoples participating as it is for its huge scale.

Its tempting to see this record as a triumph for democracy as the dominant organising principle for governing people in the modern world. But a closer examination shows democracy is at risk on many fronts. While these challenges take different forms in different jurisdictions, some clear patterns emerge. 2024 is going to be a rugged year for democracy, but there is still cause for cautious optimism about its future.

Heres a rundown of just some of the significant elections that will shape the world in 2024.

Read more: There will be more elections in 2024 than ever before here's how it could affect financial markets

The most high-stakes election of 2024 will be the US general election for the president, house of representatives and senate in November. For decades America has stood as the worlds most powerful democracy and a guarantor (if a flawed one) of democratic governments the world over.

Donald Trump is the likely Republican nominee. In his previous term as President he did more than any previous chief executive to undermine democracy according to a Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) analysis.

Now he is promising to punish his political opponents, override the independence of the Department of Justice and extend presidential power into non-political areas of government administration.

This prompted President Joe Biden to warn that Democracy is on the ballot in the 2024 Presidential vote.

At this stage, US voters do not seem to care too much, with Trump ahead in many key opinion polls.

The rise of democracy in India and Indonesia, the worlds second and fourth most populous nations, has been a game changer for the global advancement of human freedoms. The sheer scale of the elections in these developing nations, with a combined population of 1.7 billion, is also a miracle in modern administration.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems almost certain to be returned for a third term in an election to be likely held between April and May.

While Indonesian Defence Minister, Prabowo Subianto, is the clear frontrunner to become the next president of the worlds largest Muslim nation in February.

In both cases, there is the risk these strongman leaders will win power in free and fair elections but then oversee illiberal policies that put democratic institutions under strain.

The UK is likely to go to a general election in the second half of 2024. Current polling suggests it will result in the first change of government in 14 years with victory for the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer.

If that happens, it will be a reminder of democracys ability to enable the transfer of political power between opposing interests without widespread bloodshed something humankind has failed at for most of history.

Other elections in Europe will be a barometer of the standing of the populist far right.

The success of anti-Islam extremist Geert Wilders in elections in the Netherlands in November means many analysts are now predicting the far right will enjoy a surge in support in European parliament elections in June, as well as national elections in Austria, Belgium, Croatia and Finland.

Read more: Why the 2024 election cycle could result in more threats to US democracy

National elections are occurring in a dozen countries in Africa this year including Rwanda, Ghana, Tunisia, South Sudan and Algeria. But most attention will be on the mid-year election in South Africa which will be the most important since the end of apartheid in 1994.

Current polls suggest that after three decades in power the African National Congress (ANC) will not be able to garner the necessary 50% of votes needed to govern in its own right, bringing to an end 30 years of one-party rule.

Special mention must be made of the 2024 elections which will not be free and will not be fair.

Russia, Rwanda and Belarus are governed by tyrannical rulers who jail opponents and run bogus elections that deliver 90% majorities or higher.

Then there is the charade elections occurring in Bangladesh, Iran and Tunisia where leaders allow the opposition to compete, but not to win.

Elections are taking place against a backdrop of spreading illiberalism around the world, the weakening of independent institutions in some of the big democracies, and a creeping disillusionment in advanced democracies, especially among younger people, about the benefits of a democratic system.

But there is also reason for cautious optimism that the long arc of history continues to steer determinedly towards a more democratic world.

Read more: How religion and politics will mix in 2024 three trends to track

Democracy remains the model that most developing nations strive for. According to Freedom House, there were 69 electoral democracies in 1990 rising to 122 by 2014. It is telling that even dictators and despots feel the need to give themselves the appearance of a democratic mandate. And surveys of citizens in advanced democracies continue to show high levels of support for the ideals of democratic government.

Government of the people, for the people, by the people still holds significant advantages over all the other alternatives currently being tried. But in 2024 it will be tested mightily.

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More than 4 billion people are eligible to vote in an election in 2024. Is this democracy's biggest test? - The Conversation

Taiwan’s upcoming election stands as a litmus test of the Chinese Communist Party’s political warfare strategy, specifically whether disinformation and military drills alone can bend Taipei’s will toward Beijing’s reunification designs. Yet, China’s bid to undermine Taiwan’s democracy also foreshadows its intent to influence the 2024 U.S. election — an act of subversion Washington cannot afford to ignore.  

This Saturday, 19 million Taiwanese voters will determine more than simply their next president and parliament; their choices will also profoundly impact the tenor of U.S.-China relations for the foreseeable future. With voters set to weigh in on various domestic issues, including inflation and energy security, the defining challenge casting a shadow over every ballot is how Taiwan should respond to the mainland’s growing aggression. Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s recent warning to President Biden about China’s urgency to “resolve” Taiwan’s status — sooner rather than later — underscores the seriousness of today’s tensions in the Taiwan Strait. 

Having hinged its great-power resurgence on reunifying with Taiwan, China has understandably been loath to leave the island’s political fate to chance. Indeed, for 10 years running, Taiwan has been the world’s top target of disinformation, according to a Stockholm University study that tracks authoritarian influence. That trend continued this year, with China unleashing a torrent of new disinformation aimed at undermining the ruling Democratic Progressive Party — which has pledged closer ties to the U.S. other democratic powers — and bolstering opposition candidates seeking improved ties with the mainland. Chief among China’s other disinformation goals is sowing distrust about U.S. security guarantees should Beijing one day invade.  

Without doubt, cyberspace serves as the primary arena for China’s disinformation offensive. Cyberattacks designed to crash Taiwanese networks and propagate falsehoods reached unprecedented levels last quarter, spiking 3,370 percent — a more than thirty fold increase over the prior year — according to security firm Cloudfare. In one case, Chinese social media content farms impersonated genuine Taiwanese news websites and propagated seemingly legitimate broadcast clips championing China’s preferred political narratives about the election, including how reunification is ‘inevitable.’ Meanwhile, Chinese disinformation watchdog Doublethink Labs revealed how algorithms on TikTok, owned by the Beijing-headquartered ByteDance, overwhelmingly amplify content critical of the DPP. 

Besides spreading rumors, China has also resorted to levying new trade restrictions on Taiwanese firms reliant on the mainland’s market, attributing the move to the DPP’s “stubborn adherence to Taiwan independence.” More recently, Xi ordered China’s military to conduct pre-election drills in and around Taiwan’s territorial waters. Such maneuvers serve as a stark reminder that Beijing could one-day resort to kinetic action if voting trends diverge further from China’s stated reunification goals.   

Altogether, the potential effectiveness of China’s tactics in Taiwan could set a precedent for similar operations targeting other democracies, with the goal of destabilizing and manipulating public opinion from within. Such a scenario underscores the urgency for American vigilance and preparedness against an adversary adept at the art of political subversion. 

Alarmingly, evidence of Chinese interference in the U.S. has already surfaced. Before Christmas, the Biden administration declassified intelligence exposing Chinese interference in the U.S. 2022 mid-terms. These insidious operations ranged from social media campaigns aimed at eroding voter confidence to directly interfering in several distinct races, including undermining a congressional candidate because he supported the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests. The White House has not clarified its two-year delay in releasing this critical assessment, nor does it appear to have censured China for its meddling, per readouts of recent bilateral engagements with Beijing.

As Taiwan tallies its votes, it’s incumbent on Washington to confront Beijing’s machinations head-on. The U.S. must not only pre-emptively denounce any form of meddling during the upcoming U.S. election but also enforce a doctrine of deterrence, articulating clear consequences for any transgressions. Continued inaction by Washington could be perceived as acquiescence in Beijing, inviting ever-greater interference in the future.  

Second, the Biden administration must commit to providing Congress and the public with regular updates regarding Chinese meddling in the run-up to November’s election. The White House and Congress should also encourage social media companies — including Twitter and Meta — to do the same. Such disclosures are particularly relevant because Chinese cyber-actors have weaponized these platforms in the past to manipulate voter sentiments around divisive themes like racial injustice, police brutality, and U.S. military assistance to Ukraine.  

Last, Washington should pro-actively share relevant insights regarding Chinese election meddling with the other 50 democracies scheduled to hold elections this year, while also encouraging other governments to do the same in the name of collective democratic defense. 

As the world observes Taiwan’s election unfold this week, we are reminded that authoritarian regimes are incessantly working to make the world less safe for democracy. Beijing’s maneuvering in Taiwan today could very well be a prelude to the challenges the U.S. will face tomorrow. The time for a coordinated and decisive response is now — not after Americans begin casting their votes.  

Craig Singleton is a senior fellow at the non-partisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former U.S. diplomat.  

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Democracys high stakes in Taiwans vote - The Hill

Last weekend, Bangladeshs long-ruling Awami League won a significant election victory, taking a reported 222 seats out of a total of 298 available, according to the countrys Election Commission, which is heavily stacked with Awami League functionaries. This gives the Awami League and its increasingly autocratic leader, Sheikh Hasina, her fourth straight term in office and fifth term overall as prime minister.

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Unfortunately, during Sheikh Hasinas time in office, she cracked down more and more on opposition parties, civil society, the press, and virtually any other form of opposition. The main opposition party, the BNP, declined to participate in this election, declaring it would not be free and fair. They were right. Sheikh Hasina refused to allow a caretaker government to take over during the election period. In the past, caretaker governments allowed freer and fairer campaigning and helped prevent the ruling party from dominating the election machinery and process. Thousands, even tens of thousands of members of the BNP, are in detention, and a number have been killed. According to The Guardian, The election has been described as a sham designed to cement Hasinas rule by exiled opposition leader Tarique Rahman. Rahmans party staged amonths-long protest campaign in 2023demanding the prime ministers resignation that saw at least eleven people killed and thousands of its supporters arrested.

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Leading democracies agreed that the election was not free and fair. The United Kingdom condemned it as unfree, and according to Reuters, a U.S. State Department spokesman said, The United States remains concerned by the arrests of thousands of political opposition members and by reports of irregularities on elections day The United States shares the view with other observers that these elections were not free or fair, and we regret that not all parties participated.

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Sheikh Hasinas actions are consistent with an ongoing, longstanding trend of democratic regression in South and Southeast Asia. This trend encompasses military takeovers and non-military autocracies or hybrid states that have quashed democracy, or at least a degree of freedom, in countries like Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, and Myanmar. Even bright spots like Thailand, which at least had an election last year, ultimately went against the popular will and ended up installing a coalition government that did not include the party that won the most votes.

There is little reason to hope that things will turn around, at least anytime soon, in the region. Democratic regression could worsen. Indonesias presidential elections are coming up, and Prabowo Subianto, the leading candidate, has previously suggested that he would rule as a strongman-type leader. In Cambodia, new leader Hun Manet may be more open to economic change but continues the repressive environment toward political opposition and civil society. With the United States distracted and China increasingly influential in the region, democrats face an uphill battle.

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Bangladesh's Sham Election and the Regression of Democracy in South and Southeast Asia - Council on Foreign Relations

Ever wonder just who is behind the consistent attacks on Democracy in the courts? Look no further than a little known law group in Wisconsin. The Milwaukee-based Wisconsin Institute For Law and Liberty (WILL) is a conservative firm founded in 2011 that has filed lawsuits and intervened in a myriad of cases to advance Republican interests.

WILL was founded and is led by Rick Esenberg, who claims to have litigated more cases as a lawyer at the Wisconsin Supreme Court than any other private lawyer in the state. WILL is largely funded by the Bradley Foundation, a conservative Wisconsin right-wing group that has become an extraordinary force in persuading mainstream Republicans to support radical challenges to election rulesa tactic once relegated to the far right and funds a network of groups that have been stoking fear about election fraud, according to the New Yorker.

Despite its websites Preserving Democracy Project, WILL is the exact opposite of a pro-democracy force. WILL spent nearly a year investigating former President Donald Trumps bogus claims of election fraud and forced the purging of 200,000 voter registrations. The law firm has litigated to restrict voting rights in numerous cases in recent years, with some cases still outstanding.

Perhaps the most infamous impact WILL has on Wisconsin elections is its involvement in a case that ultimately banned the use of drop boxes across the entire state. In June 2021, the group filed a lawsuit on behalf of two voters against the Wisconsin Elections Commission (WEC), requesting that the court ban drop boxes and require voters to mail or return their own ballots to designated officials. Drop boxes are secure containers where voters can easily drop off ballots in sealed and signed envelopes.

The suit was filed despite the fact that in 2020, Wisconsin Democrats and Republicans both agreed that drop boxes were a secure way to cast mail-in ballots that led to a flourishing of voter turnout.

Lawyers for WILL argued that guidance issued by WEC allowing the use of drop boxes conflicted with the states existing mail-in ballot system. In their lawsuit, they went so far as making absurd claims that a liberal reading of the guidance would permit a shoebox on a park bench to be a way for voters to cast a ballot a blatantly false claim. WILL also attacked community ballot collection, outright ignoring the numerous voters for whom dropping off a ballot is a significant burden. Community ballot collection provides voters with a safe and easy way to cast their ballots by permitting designated organizations, election officials or family members to collect a voters signed and sealed ballot and deliver the ballot to election officials on the voters behalf.

WEC along with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Wisconsin Faith Voices for Justice, League of Women Voters of Wisconsin and Disability Rights Wisconsin defended the practice, arguing that the drop boxes were permissible and served as an authorized extension of clerks. They pointed to the disenfranchisement of marginalized voters as a further defense of drop boxes.

Ultimately, the then-conservative-controlled Wisconsin Supreme Court held that drop boxes were unauthorized under Wisconsin law in a catastrophic ruling. The decision was devastating for Wisconsin voters, eliminating a convenient method of voting that is especially of use to Black, working-class and younger voters that contributed to the 1.9 million votes cast by mail in the state in 2020. WILL would later herald the devastating decision in a press release.

WILL found another way to attempt to attack Wisconsinites voting rights in the run up to the 2022 midterm elections, this time by challenging the use of convenient mobile voting sites throughout the city of Racine. Wisconsin law permits city clerks to designate alternate mail-in voting locations if the clerks office is unavailable for in-person voting. Racine seemingly took advantage of that policy by using an election van that moved to various locations to best allow for early mail-in voting.

WILL challenged the validity of the van, claiming that alternate locations are not allowed to be moved, as the van permitted, claiming the expansive policy afforded an advantage to the Democratic Party. Tara McMenamin, Racines city clerk, pointed out in a response to WILL that nothing in Wisconsin law prohibits the use of a vehicle as an alternate mail-in voting site, and clarified that the sites various locations were chosen based on accessibility for all Racine residents.

McMenamin was adamant in her response that the city was compliant with the law, despite numerous claims by WILLs lawyers to the contrary. In a ruling, WEC agreed, writing that it found that the Complainant did not show probable cause to believe that a violation of law or abuse of discretion occurred, allowing the accessible voting method to remain in effect for the 2022 election.

Not dismayed by the decision, WILL challenged Racines van yet again in December 2022, this time filing a lawsuit against the city clerk as well as WEC, appealing its dismissal of the administrative complaint. WILL claimed that mobile voting sites violate Wisconsin law, and once again alleged the voting sites disproportionately helped Democrats.

Just this week, a court reversed WECs dismissal of the complaint lodged against the van, ruling it violated state law and barring the van from being used in future elections.

Before September 2023, 47 states accepted the use of the federal voter registration form, the National Mail Voter Registration Form. Provided by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission, the form has long been used to allow voters to register by mail and by third-party voter registration groups to increase turnout from diverse groups.

That number went down to 46 last September, as a result of a lawsuit filed by WILL. The conservative group claimed the form failed to comply with Wisconsin law by omitting certain items, such as information about a voters residency or whether a voter has a criminal record. Despite fierce arguments from WEC defending the use of the form as compliant with Wisconsin law, a Wisconsin judge declared the form illegal and ordered WEC to withdraw the forms approval.

The court did not rule on whether the form itself was compliant with state law, but rather deemed the form to have never been approved by WEC, as required. WILL described the restrictive decision as a tremendous victory for Wisconsinites.

WILL also filed a petition in the summer of 2021, arguing that the states legislative and congressional maps were malapportioned following the release of 2020 census data because the state had yet to subsequently draw new maps reflective of the changes. Ultimately, maps were ordered to be drawn reflecting this new data, and the states Republican-controlled Legislature adopted gerrymandered maps to further entrench their power.

Intervening to defend suppressive voting laws and gerrymandered maps has also been a practice of WILL. In a lawsuit filed last July challenging three restrictive Wisconsin procedures regulating mail-in voting, WILL served as counsel for an association attempting to intervene to defend the laws. The lawsuit challenged the states blanket drop box ban, which WILL made possible, the states burdensome absentee ballot witness requirement and a cure deadline for absentee ballots. The association was ultimately denied intervention.

WILL similarly represented a group of voters seeking to uphold the states gerrymandered legislative maps (a result of the previously mentioned lawsuit filed by WILL), which are among the most gerrymandered in the U.S. Among other arguments, WILLs lawyers claimed that the states legislative maps did not violate the contiguity requirements of the Wisconsin Constitution, an assertion the Wisconsin Supreme Court disagreed with the states high court struck down the maps just last week for including districts that were illegally noncontiguous, meaning not touching.

While WILL has done its fair share of work to endanger democracy, the right-wing legal group is far from the only group continuously attacking voting rights under the radar. The Public Interest Legal Foundation (PILF), a Virginia-based conservative law group, has made it its mission to purge voters from rolls in states across the country. The America First Legal Foundation, founded by Stephen Miller, a close ally to former President Donald Trump, has fought to attack drop boxes and promote the fringe and now-rejected independent state legislature theory.

The conservative legal groups are part of a wide anti-voting network that work together to make voting more difficult and free and fair elections less likely. Other groups include True the Vote, the Election Integrity Network, the Heritage Foundation and more. While suppressive efforts by Republicans will continue to make headlines, it is important to be aware of the often overlooked groups like WILL who are responsible for the anti-democratic carnage.

A representative for WILL did not respond to repeated requests for comment.

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The Little Known Wisconsin Legal Group Wreaking Havoc on Democracy - Democracy Docket

Charlotte Bingham 27 had never traveled outside the United States until last fall, when she enrolled at Syracuse Strasbourg in France, one of Syracuse Universitys five study abroad centers. The first-year student wasted no time exploring the historic, diverse city, built on an island in the River Ill and straddling the French-German border.

Strasbourg is ideal for undergraduates because unlike most metropolitan cities, its safe, welcoming and easy to explore, says Bingham, a Long Island native majoring in international relations. I made it my European hometown.

She also discovered Strasbourgs importance as a geopolitical hub. A symbol of peace and postwar reconciliation between France and Germany, the city houses major global institutions, including the European Parliament; the European Court of Human Rights; and the Council of Europe, a human rights organization that sponsors the World Forum for Democracy.

In November, Bingham was one of 10 Syracuse students who, as part of their coursework for Politics of the European Union (PSC 405) and European Human Rights (PSC 429), had the rare opportunity to serve as official rapporteurs at the World Forum for Democracy. As notetakers, they reported on key discussion points at the three-day event, which was attended by representatives from more than 80 countries and focused on defending democracy and human rights.

I saw the world in a new, three-dimensional way, recalls Bingham, whose reporting on the proceedings was included in the forums final summary. Programs like Syracuse Strasbourg help me make sense of the world, seeing it as a community of people rather than an impersonal map of lines and borders.

Center Director John Goodman agrees, noting a new agreement between the University, which is celebrating its 50th anniversary in Strasbourg, and the Council of Europe. The new partnership is a gem of an opportunity for students and faculty alikethe first of its kind between a U.S. institution and the Council of Europe.

We recently caught up with Goodman as well as Bingham, Nathaniel Hasanaj 25 (international relations), William Johnson 25 (history and social studies education) and Grace Reed 25 (broadcast and digital journalism) to discuss Syracuse Strasbourg.

Tell us about the World Forum for Democracy.

Johnson: It brought together business leaders and representatives from governments, youth delegations and non-governmental organizations to examine the state of democracy in the world. Many attendees presented initiatives designed to improve democracy and the quality of life for others.

Bingham: One presenter who stood out to me was a public policy analyst from Kenya. She talked about the People Dialogue Festival, where Kenyans from all walks of life meet to discuss governmental, social and economic issues. That this is done against the backdrop of different cultural experiences, like food, music and dance, is fascinating.

Hasanaj: The forum enables political decision-makers and activists to debate solutions to key democratic challenges. Its based on the three values of the Council of Europe: democracy, human rights and the rule of law.

I saw the world in a new, three-dimensional way. Programs like Syracuse Strasbourg help me make sense of the world, seeing it as a community of people rather than an impersonal map of lines and borders.

What was it like serving as a rapporteur?

Reed: Each of us attended a lab group or a forum talk, where we took official notes and formed opinions about various initiatives being presented. [Reeds lab, titled The Art of Dialogue: Can Empathy Deliver Peace?, featured presentations of four such initiatives.] After discussing our findings with other rapporteurs, we decided which projects should proceed to the final round.

Hasanaj: My lab was titled Women Building Peace, and it explored ways to make peace negotiations more inclusive. One presenter was the founder of the South Sudanese Women Intellectuals Forum, which uses social and broadcasting media to promote a free, just and equitable society. Her presentation was not only informative and well structured, but also extremely passionate. Listening to her made me realize why women and girls in war-torn countries like South Sudan are often marginalized.

Johnson: As rapporteurs, we helped determine which initiative was most popularand would receive the Council of Europes prestigious Democracy Innovation Award. I learned about pressing issues, like the environmental and health impacts of mining in Ghana and Serbias clean water crisis. As a future social studies teacher, Im interested in how these kinds of issues affect government and society.

The Universitys new partnership with the Council of Europe creates experiential opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students. What are your thoughts on it?

Goodman: The agreement is an outgrowth of the Universitys Academic Strategic Plan, which emphasizes study abroad and student engagement with real-time public issues. It provides a dozen internships for students studying in Strasbourg. It also fosters unique research opportunities for students and faculty.

It's extremely rare and valuable for students, especially undergraduates, to work inside an organization like the Council of Europe, which represents more than 700 million people. Thanks to our 50-year presence in Strasbourg, the University has direct access to working practitioners in major international bodies.

Hasanaj: As the so-called Capital of Europe, Strasbourg offers many pre-professional learning opportunities and experiences. Some of the ideas I encountered at the World Forum of Democracy have broadened my perspective, something that probably wouldnt have happened otherwise. I feel more independent and have a deeper understanding of Europeanespecially French and Germanhistory and culture.

Reed: Studying abroad in Strasbourg, I developed a greater sense of autonomy and resilience while advancing my future career through opportunities like the World Forum of Democracy. I now see the worldand the people in itin a new way.

This story was published on January 10, 2024.

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Studying Abroad While Defending Democracy and Human Rights - Syracuse.edu - Syracuse University