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In 2013, Alfred Stepan and Mirjam Kunkler, two world-renowned American experts on civil-military relations and democracy, talked about twin tolerances in their book Democracy and Islam in Indonesia. They built an argument around creating a socio-political ecosystem for forces of democracy and State to accommodate Islamic radical elements willing to take recourse to democratic values or processes while still retaining their Islamism. Drawing on a detailed case study of Indonesia, the duo concluded that twin tolerances was a possibility and to this end they proposed building a community of public intellectuals that could develop capacity within a religious society for democratic norms.

Pakistans State would like to apply this very formula to Afghanistan.

Also read: Look closer, Kashmir and Afghanistan attacks on minorities are copycat strategies

The aim is to turn Afghanistan into a State where the Taliban agree to apply some norms that are acceptable to Western democracy without adapting entirely to the Western model. This argument has remained close to the Pakistani militarys heart for a long time. General Pervez Musharraf hadspoken about Western democratic norms being suited to Pakistan or even other societies. Theoretically, there is a case for twin tolerances to be made if Taliban marginally give up violence and collaborate with the West and the rest of the world to fight more radical forces like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), they could turn into any other Right-wing religious group in the region. South Asia, as a region, is increasingly awash with Right-wing radical forces whose violence is limited to home or within the region rather than outside.

Its also Islamabads calculation that the world may turn around to the idea of accommodating the Taliban for their own reasons.

The UK is intalkswith the Taliban via Pakistan at a time when the US is inclined to hold talks more independently. Recently, Washington held the first direct talks with the Taliban post-withdrawal.Surely, London and Washington share notes but the fact that the British military and government both continue to engage with the Taliban give hope to Pakistan that its own plan regarding the future of a Taliban-led Afghanistan may be working. European capitals, though, remain confused about forming a clearer policy. Although the European Commission remains firmonnot engaging with the Taliban unless they meet conditionsaninclusive government, female education,due share towomen and minorities in decision-makinga solid united front based on a clear approach is still lacking. For instance, Germany, which is a significant Statein the region, is concerned about being flooded by Afghan migrants,an issue that is more imagined than real.Islamabad sees this lack of consensusin the West as an opportunity to keep pushing the case for countries to accept the Taliban, which they believe representthePashtun culture.

Islamabads security establishment is definitely not concerned about the rise of conservatism or extremism in Afghanistan, a result of the Taliban being in power. In fact, the popular view within the larger security establishment is that while womens education may be an issue, it is at best secondary when compared to the goal of making this new State run, for which Rawalpindi and Islamabad continue to make a case before the international community.

Also read: I am offshore Pakistani General. My establishment beat India in Pandora Papers

Socio-political extremismin Afghanistanis not a matter of concern,primarily because Pakistan itself is taking a similar direction.

The overall changes in the educational system theSingle National Curriculum (SNC)or steps such asmaking it mandatory for Masters degree candidates in Punjab to demonstrate knowledge of Quran to qualify indicate a gradual shift towards turning Pakistans nationalism even closer to religion, which then gets reflected in the States attitudes towards women and minority groups. While the Taliban, al-Qaeda and ISKP denote one end of the religious-extremist spectrum and are a cause of concern, what Pakistan is facing is Barelvi extremism, an ideology that has emerged with force and much more dangerously, especially in the past five years. It has inculcated greater intolerance towards minority groups such as Ahmadiyyas and Shias, and the rapidly disappearing liberals. Though it could be argued that religious-nationalism is the trend that is now pervasive throughout South Asia, there is no parallel to the way it webs Afghanistan and Pakistan together. Interestingly, the Afghanistan-Pakistan region today is a more fundamental reality that extends beyond geo-politics to include socio-politics and political economy.

In Pakistan, both the civil and military leadership subscribe to religious nationalism. Its in the second half of hiscurrent term thatPrime MinisterImran Khan has begun to invest more strategically in religious nationalism. ThePMs recentassurance to the ulemaof not making any lawsthat can beconsidered against Islamic values, as defined by the clergy, is not simply about his personal conservatism but a political choice of strengthening the religious Right that he may depend on one day for his fight against both his political opponents and the army as an institution. He may want to use religious forces to his advantage. Khan understands that the religious extremist, thoughmanufacturedby the military, do scare the generals. My argument may sound counter-intuitive as Imran Khan has demonstrated no desire to fight the military except perhaps for now. Rumours are rife regarding the Prime Ministersreluctanceto notify the new ISI chiefsappointment. But the fact is that every political actor produced by the military ends up with some level of confrontation whenever he or she tries to secure more power or their own future,in government.

Also read: I compared Afghanistan school textbooks with Pakistans. This is what I found

As for the militarys desire to fight the militants, it may do a tactical confrontation but not a strategic one. Its about using military action to influence behaviour and not destroy the forces of religious Right. Contrary to the expectations the Pakistani liberals carry, that the military has the power to eliminate the extremist-militants, Rawalpindis capacity has reduced not the war-fighting capability but the intent. The GHQ is equally invested in the religious Right for its geo-political ambitions. Despite its difficult experience of terrorist attacks by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which is fundamentally part of the Afghan Taliban, the military decision-makers remain invested in the Taliban. Khans suggestion of dialogue with the TTPis nota newconcept. Even Nawaz Sharif had suggestedtalkswithRight-wing religious groupsrather than military action. However, the 2015-16 proposal was more of a tactic aimed at co-opting some militants that were ready to talk. Sharifs peace overture to the TTP was also different as he, unlike Imran Khan, took all other parties on board by organising the All-Parties Conference to develop aconsensus.

The Pakistan armywould rather convince militants to give up arms so that the State does not have to fight battles with them. Allowing the extremist-militants to impose their version of sharia in the tribal belt ofPakistanmayjustbe considered a small price to pay. In any case, the popular narrative among Pakistans security community is that Pashtunwali orthePashtun culture is akin to Taliban sharia.Furthermore, some forms of sharia have already touched the households and personal lives of all those involved in military-strategic decision-making in Pakistan from the army chief and many of the corps commanders to the National security Advisor. These are men with greater tolerance for religious conservatismand theironly desire at the moment may be for Pakistan to remain a hybrid theocracy.A set upwithfewspaces for demonstration of socio-cultural liberalism,something whichwouldmake it easier to engage with the world rather than a deeply theocratic form of the Taliban. In 74 years, Pakistan and Afghanistan have begun to look more similar than before.

Ayesha Siddiqa is senior research fellow at Kings College, London and author of Military Inc. Inside Pakistans Military Economy. She tweets @iamthedrifter. Views are personal.

(Edited by Anurag Chaubey)

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Pakistan wants an Afghanistan acceptable to the West Islam plus democracy - ThePrint

In July 2019, a group of left-wing protesters interrupted a panel on legal fights against the Trump administration during a national progressive conference at the Convention Center.

Upset about a new state law they feared would dilute District Attorney Larry Krasners authority, they demanded to know where Pennsylvanias attorney general, Josh Shapiro, stood on the issue. Yes or no! they chanted.

Shapiro, a Montgomery County Democrat, insisted that he had no interest in undermining Krasner. The protesters walked away skeptical but willing to give him a chance.

Two years later, Shapiro is on the cusp of announcing his long-expected campaign for governor, having effectively cleared the Democratic field before he even launched his bid. Far from facing any challenge from the left, he has unified his party more than a year before the general election in sharp contrast with the crowded Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, where questions of identity and ideology are at the fore.

It is a feat virtually unprecedented in modern Pennsylvania Democratic politics. Veteran strategists could not recall another open-seat gubernatorial primary election here in which there was no serious competition.

And yet, the 48-year-old Abington residents march to the nomination is not much of a surprise. It has been a project almost two decades in the making, as Shapiro has ascended from congressional staffer to state rep to board chairman of the states third-largest county to second-term attorney general and presumptive nominee for governor.

Party leaders praise him as a skilled communicator, prodigious fund-raiser, and strong leader with a record of nonpartisan accomplishments such as turning a spotlight on the Catholic Churchs cover-up of sexual abuse that can cut through a polarized electorate in a purple state.

And its crucial that hes a proven winner in statewide elections: In both 2016 and 2020, he got the most votes of anyone on the ballot in Pennsylvania, including Joe Biden.

Shapiros campaign announcement could come as early as this week. A spokesperson for him declined to discuss his plans. And its impossible to know what the political climate will be like a year from now; his campaign strategy depends in part on which candidate emerges from the crowded GOP primary.

READ MORE: Abortion is a key issue for Pa. Democrats, and it could supercharge the 2022 midterms

Republicans have already been trying to hold him responsible for Philadelphias unchecked gun violence and tied him to Gov. Tom Wolfs pandemic-related business shutdowns. They say the Democrats unabiding faith in Shapiro is misguided.

Democrats will regret giving him a free pass, said Mark Harris, a GOP strategist based in Pittsburgh whose client, Senate President Pro Tempore Jake Corman (R., Centre), is seen as a possible contender in the race.

But even despite getting a highly unusual, if offhand, public endorsement from the sitting governor three years before the election, he has occasionally faced blistering criticism from Democrats on criminal justice issues, including from two of the biggest names Krasner and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman.

Still, Democrats say hes their closest thing to a safe bet at a time when the U.S. Supreme Court appears poised to deliver a major setback to abortion rights and Donald Trump is hinting at another White House bid raising the specter of another attempt to subvert democracy.

Republicans hold majorities in both houses of the state legislature, though that could change after the midterm elections, and Democrats say their biggest priority is retaining Wolfs veto pen after his term expires in January 2023. Itll be a tall order: Neither party has won three consecutive gubernatorial elections since 1950.

We as Democrats know if we do not have a Democratic governor to replace Wolf, we will become Texas or Georgia or Florida. We have an out-of-control legislature who is trying to destroy democracy, theyre engaging in a sham recount, said Jill Zipin, a party activist from Montgomery County who has known Shapiro for years. Democrats understand that democracy is on the line, and were not playing games here. And that Josh will be a defender of democracy and that Josh will be able to protect us.

There are lots of ambitious people in politics. So when theres an open seat for statewide office or a chance to run against an incumbent from the other party, usually theres competition.

Wolf, once a little-known businessman from York, had to spend $10 million of his own money in the 2014 gubernatorial primary to beat prominent rivals including former U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz and then-State Treasurer Rob McCord.

READ MORE: Who is running for governor of Pa. in 2022?

In 2010, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato beat state Auditor General Jack Wagner, State Sen. Anthony Williams, and Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel for the nomination. Before them, Ed Rendell had to beat Bob Casey, the auditor general and son of a popular former governor.

And so on.

So howd Shapiro get to this moment?

As with most things in politics, he pulled it off through a combination of skill, luck, and hard work, according to interviews with more than a dozen advisers, party leaders, lawmakers, and strategists.

Perhaps no single event or inflection point made Shapiro the de facto leader of the party.

Rather, it was the accumulation of political capital, accrued over years of networking and party-building, and a relentless drive. That sometimes meant sidestepping an old ally, as when the Montgomery County Democrats showed Commissioner Hoeffel the door a decade ago in part to pave the way for Shapiro, whod served as his chief of staff in Congress.

Democrats are the party of herding cats and hes worked hard at opening his door, listening carefully to input and responding, said Williams, the Philadelphia state senator. Hes not a glad-hander. Hes more of a lets-get-to-know-one-another. And if theres an issue we share common ground on, he follows through.

READ MORE: Heres where candidates for Pa. Senate and governor stand on Texas abortion ban

As a young state representative in the mid-2000s, Shapiro developed a reputation as a reformer, working to pass new ethics legislation and playing a key role in brokering a bipartisan power-sharing arrangement for House leadership. Long before the rest of the Philadelphia suburbs turned deep blue, Shapiro and running mate Leslie Richards helped Democrats take control of the county government for the first time, in 2011.

Zipin called that a really, really big deal, recalling how Shapiro went to countless picnics and fund-raisers and took the time to meet local candidates. What a lot of people dont understand who arent involved in politics: Politics is really grassroots, and candidates develop at the very local level, she said. Josh understands that.

Good timing has also helped. The 2016 resignation of attorney general and onetime Democratic star Kathleen Kane, after her perjury conviction, opened the door to his first statewide bid.

Despite lacking courtroom experience, Shapiro won a three-way primary that spring, beating Stephen Zappala, the Allegheny County district attorney and son of a former Supreme Court justice who had the support of Philadelphias powerful union leader John J. Dougherty. Then Shapiro won the general election even as Donald Trump won the state for the presidency.

In the ensuing months and years, Trump offered a useful foil to Democratic attorneys general across the country. Shapiro was no exception, filing lawsuits against Trumps travel ban and scores of other policies and burnishing an image with liberals as a check on the White House.

Shapiro also took on the big fights, as hes put it, releasing a damning grand jury report on the Catholic Churchs sex-abuse scandal and helping resolve a dispute between two Western Pennsylvania health-care giants that he claimed had left many patients excluded from a major network of doctors and hospitals.

He clearly made it known under no circumstances are the men and women of Western Pennsylvania going to be casualties in this battle, said Darin Kelly, president of the Allegheny/Fayette Central Labor Council.

In his most recent election, Shapiro outperformed Biden and other Democrats in Allegheny County, home to Pittsburgh, and surrounding counties, as well as in parts of Northeastern Pennsylvania where the party has struggled in recent years.

READ MORE: The survival of U.S. democracy may hinge on this decision by Pa.s next governor | Will Bunch

His electoral success notwithstanding, it didnt always look as though Shapiro would run uncontested.

Not long after Krasner was elected Philadelphia district attorney on a progressive reform platform in 2017, he started lashing out at the new attorney general. After some assistant prosecutors left Krasners office and took jobs under Shapiro, Krasner has said, staffers in the DAs Office started jokingly referring to the AGs Office as Paraguay, a reference to the South American country where Nazis sought refuge after World War II. Krasner wasnt seen as a likely gubernatorial rival, but his criticism seemed to suggest a level of discontent with Shapiro, at least in the criminal justice reform movement.

Fetterman, who once openly considered running for governor, repeatedly clashed with Shapiro on the Board of Pardons, a panel on which they both serve that can recommend commutation for people convicted of violent crimes who have since reformed or maintained their innocence. Shapiro at times opposed Fettermans push to recommend commutations.

Fetterman has since decided to run for U.S. Senate.

Shapiro has noted that he voted in favor of many commutations but said of his critics: If theyre charging me with being cautious, then guilty as charged. These decisions weigh on me.

His allies point out that after the police killing of George Floyd last year, the attorney general helped strike a deal on legislation establishing a confidential state misconduct database aimed at preventing problem cops fired by police departments from getting jobs at new departments.

It was a modest measure, but won the support both of progressives and the Fraternal Order of Police.

More broadly, Shapiro has maintained a dialogue with key progressive legislators over the years. He seems willing to reach out to folks who may disagree with him on things and have an open conversation, said J.J. Abbott, Wolfs former press secretary.

There were efforts in some progressive Democratic circles to recruit a female challenger, though those plans never went anywhere, according to people familiar with the matter.

After winning a second term as attorney general last November, Shapiro established himself as the front-runner.

In the weeks that followed, Shapiro got even more of a boost from Trump and his allies who were determined to challenge or overturn the election in Pennsylvania.

In the tense weeks before Bidens inauguration, Pennsylvanias attorney general became a ubiquitous presence on MSNBC and CNN and defended the states secretary of state in court.

That just cemented such a sense of recognition for him and identifying with what he stood for, said Kathy Bozinski, chairwoman of the Democratic Party in Luzerne County, in the northeastern part of the state. I think candidates saw that and said, Hey, thats a juggernaut we probably cant overtake.

Its a card Shapiro has already shown he intends to play when the campaign gets up and running. Make no mistake, he posted on Twitter last week. In 2022, the Big Lie will be on the ballot and weve got to vote against it.

See more here:
How Josh Shapiro locked down the Democratic nomination for governor without even announcing he would run - The Philadelphia Inquirer

But what if Donald Trump wins? Im referring here to the widely circulated Washington Post essay by Robert Kagan, a neoconservative pundit associated with the Brookings Institution and the Council on Foreign Relations, warning that we are already in a constitutional crisis because of the certainty that Mr. Trump and his voters will reject his defeat in the upcoming 2024 election and trigger the worst crisis since the Civil War.

The alternative outcome goes unmentioned thanks to a giant lacuna that exists in half of Americas mental landscape, and in the mental landscape of 99% of the media. Mr. Kagan relies on some just-so oversimplification, but wed be foolish not to see the risk of civil disorder and legal shenanigans as high no matter who loses in 2024. Downtowns were boarded up on the eve of the 2020 race not against angry and aggrieved Trump voters. Rural riots are hardly a thing. It was in deeply blue areas that local officials feared mass violence if the election didnt turn out the way Democrats wanted.

See the rest here:
If Trump Wins in 2024, Then Who Threatens Democracy? - The Wall Street Journal

Special Envoy and Head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Jn Kubi described the signing as another breakthrough achievement by the 5+5 JMC.

I am honoured to witness this historic moment at this critical juncture in Libyas path towards peace and democracy, he said.

This latest political breakthrough concluded after a three-day meeting at the UN in Geneva, where military representatives from the Government and opposition military forces, known asthe5+5 Libyan Joint Military Commission (JMC), agreed on, and signed a comprehensive Action Plan.

It is designed as the cornerstone for the gradual, balanced, and sequenced process of the withdrawal of mercenaries, foreign fighters and foreign forces from Libyan territory.

Since the 2011fall of former ruler MuammarGadaffi,Libya has descended into crises on multiple fronts.

Until recently, thecountryhadessentiallybeendivided betweentheUN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) based in the capital Tripoli, and a rival administration, led by General Haftar, who commands the western-based self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA).

Mercenaries and other fighters from outside Libya have reportedly been operating inside the country for years, including some previously involved in the Syria conflict, and mercenaries allegedly contracted by the Russia-based Wagner group, according to a UN report released on Monday.

In line with last years Ceasefire Agreement, UN Security Council resolutions, and outcomes of the Berlin Conference , the Action Plan is a nationally owned and led instrument, said a statement released by the UN in Geneva.

The UN described it as being key to support the Libyans in regaining their sovereignty and integrity, maintain the peace, stability and security of their country.

Coupled with the action plan, the JMC is developing an implementation mechanism that calls for the gradual, balanced, and sequenced departure of all mercenaries, foreign fighters, and foreign forces.

The 5+5 intend to consult with the concerned international partners, including Libyas neighbours, and seek their support and cooperation on the plan.

The UN applauded the patriotism and commitment of the JMC members, and encouragedthem to seize this opportunity to advance the full implementation of the Ceasefire Agreement through this Action Plan.

This would include the prompt deployment of UN ceasefire monitors.

The Organization also calls on Member States to support the JMC and for the Libyan authorities to implement the Action Plan.

The UN stands ready to back Libyan efforts in implementing the agreed-upon Plan as well to unify military institution and initiate disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) and security sector reform (SSR) processes in the country.

Todays agreement responds to the overwhelming demand of the Libyan people and creates a positive momentum that should be built upon to move forward towards a stable and democratic stage, including through the holding of free, credible and transparent national elections on 24 December, with results accepted by all, Mr. Kubi said, commending the JMCs continuous efforts.

Read the rest here:
Libya: UN lauds mercenary withdrawal plan on 'path towards peace and democracy' - UN News

Another crucial Georgian run-off election is in the works, this time, not in the southern U.S. state, but the southern Caucasus country. Although the October 2 elections took place on the local level, they have had an outsized impact on the power struggle raging in Georgia between the ruling Georgian Dream Party and its political opponents.The leader of these opponents, former President Mikheil Saakashvili made a dramatic return from exile on the eve of the election. The country now awaits not only his trial but another round of heated run-off elections in four cities. How did an election of mayors and city council officials, who are among the least powerful in Europe, escalate into a referendum on the national government that experts warned could destabilize the entire country?

Last year, the 2020 parliamentary elections resulted in a Georgian Dream victory thatthe remaining eight opposition parties decriedas fraudulent. Their subsequent decision to boycott parliament until new elections were held left Georgia effectively without a government from October until April 2021. An EU-brokered compromise, the Charles Michel Agreement, brought both the ruling and opposition factions (with the notable exception of Saakashvilis United National Movement (UNM), the main opposition party) to the negotiating table and put a hold on, if not an end to, the political crisis. The agreement, among other things, required that Georgian Dream garner at least forty-three percent of the vote in the next round of local elections, which took place on October 2, 2021. Otherwise, the party would be required to hold snap parliamentary elections.

Georgian Dream has struggled to maintain its approval ratings amid a stagnating economy and a coronavirus outbreak five times worse than Indias. The party dropped out of the Charles Michel Agreement in July, (possibly from fears that it may not meet the forty-threepercent threshold) to the chagrin of Washington and Brussels.

But Georgian Dream apparently need not have worried. The votes are in, with Georgian Dream weighing in at a safe, if not comfortable, 46.7 percent, followed by UNM at 30.7 percent, and the other seven parties splitting the remainder. Not even Saakashviliwho flew back to Georgia from Ukraine in order to mobilize voters against Georgian Dreamcould kindle enough support to sway the results in his partys favor. He arrived with a rallying cry for his supporters to take to the streets. Instead, he was arrested shortly after his arrival and faces a six-year prison sentence after having been tried in absentia in 2018 for abuse of power.

But not everyone is content to see Saakashvili serve time. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has pledged to personally get Saakashvili back to Ukraine, where he was granted citizenship in 2015. In addition to the charges on which he was convicted, he awaits trial on several others related to the violent dispersal of a protest in 2007 and a raid on the television station of a political rival in 2008. For his part, Saakashvili claims the charges against him are politically motivated and has announced a hunger strike. White House spokesperson Ned Price has urged the Georgian authorities to ensure that Saakashvili receives fair treatment under the law, a remark that hints at the U.S. government's growing frustration with Georgia's democratic transition.

Critics of Georgian Dream, including those in the U.S. government, have accused the party of all manner of democratic backsliding, from covering up the death of slain journalist Lesko Lashkaravato vote-buying and intimidation in the lead-up to Saturdays elections. Georgian authorities have invoked the ire of both Washington and Brussels, who condemned the governments failures to uphold the rule of law and implement reforms, even going so far as to dangle the threat of sanctions. Adding to EU and U.S. exasperation was the leakage of Georgian Security Service files pointing to their surveillance of European and U.S. diplomatic missions in Tbilisi.

Despite its long-standing desire to join the EU and the fact thateighty-fivepercent of Georgians are in favor of a pro-Western foreign policy, the country now seems further from that goal than it has in decades. No amount of finger-wagging from Washington has made Georgian Dream change its course. Nor have financial incentives. Last month the Georgian government turned down a 75 million euro loan offered by the EU to help get Georgias raging coronavirus pandemic under control because it was unwilling to institute the judicial reforms upon which the loan was conditional. For now, it seems, all of the Wests entreaties to uphold are falling on deaf ears.

The true meaning of the October 2 elections is still unfolding.The country will now head into runoff elections to decide the mayors of the four biggest cities. Meanwhile, Saakashvili awaits his trial, the outcome of which will be a major test for Georgian institutions, particularly as the prospects for judicial reform are slim. Regardless, neither Saakashvilis UNM nor Ivanishvilis Georgian Dream have a clearly articulated vision for Georgias future. Rather than focus on the issues, the two parties have devoted their energies to undermining each other. If they continue, they will take Georgias once-lauded democratic institutions down with them.

Lillian Posner is the assistant managing editor at the National Interest.

Image: Reuters

Continued here:
Is Georgia's Democracy Dying By 1,000 Cuts? - The National Interest