Mediaboss Marketing

This year, a dizzyingly diverse array of countriesfrom the most populous (India), to one of the least (Palau)will hold national elections. Some will be fully in the global limelight, such as those in Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Many others will attract relatively little international attention, even though they will be of great importance to their citizens and neighbors. In some, the outcomes are already predictable; for others, uncertainty prevails.

Thomas Carothers, co-director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peaces Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, is a leading expert on comparative democratization and international support for democracy.

This notable run of elections will take place in a global context defined by an ongoing democratic recession and ever-intensifying geopolitical tensions among major powers. Many of the elections will have significant consequences for one or the otheror bothof these defining trends.

However, 2024s elections do not revolve around a single overarching issue or vector, such as the rise of right-wing illiberalism or the spread of toxic political polarization. Instead, they fall along a more differentiated spectrum, defined by at least five major categories.

Some elections, whether presidential or legislative or both together, will take place in countries where autocracy has already taken root. These include Belarus, Iran, Rwanda, Russia, and Venezuelaall of which are rated as not free in Freedom Houses Freedom in the World 2023 report. Rubber-stamping will likely occur in most, but not necessarily all, of these cases. In Venezuela, for example, the opposition maintains at least some capacity, despite the strenuous efforts by the regime to limit its space and reach. And even where incumbents fully dominate the process, how they position themselves in their campaigns and how well they succeed in mobilizing turnout can be informative about their political strengths and weaknesses.

Other elections will be in countries that have been experiencing significant democratic backsliding but are not yet fully autocratic, such as El Salvador, Georgia, India, Mozambique, and Pakistan. At issue will be whether the elections outcomes reinforce and deepen their undemocratic slide or breathe new political oxygen into constricted systems.

Uncertainty will be much more widespread in the sizable set of elections taking place where democracy has been facing serious tremors from surging illiberal political currents, punishing economic crises, debilitating governance shortcomings, or other woes. These include the elections in Ghana, Indonesia, Mexico, Senegal, South Africa, Sri Lanka, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and for the European Parliament. In these cases, whether the elections will end up fueling greater democratic shakiness or putting the countries on a firmer democratic footing is an overriding question.

Another sizable set of elections will take place in political contexts of relative democratic normality. These include the elections to be held in Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Finland, Palau, Panama, Portugal, Romania, and Uruguay. These contests will present voters with important choices between contending sides, but not ones where democracy itself seems to be fundamentally at risk. However, potential gains by far-right parties in some of these countriesincluding Austria, Belgium, and Portugalworry some observers.

Finally, in some countries that have experienced coups or other types of serious internal conflict, rulers have promised elections in 2024, but whether they will be reasonably free and fairif they happen at allis unclear.* This is the case in Chad, Mali, and South Sudan. If the votes are carried out in an orderly and genuinely competitive fashion, they could represent democratic openings, albeit very tentative ones.

On the geopolitical front, some elections will present voters with choices between sharply varying foreign policy orientations. The outcomes of these elections may therefore have significant regional or global implications relating to international peace and security. The United States is a major case in this regard, given the differences in foreign policy outlook between President Joe Biden and his most likely opponent, Donald Trump. If the European Parliament elections see a sharp rightward turn, the implications for EU foreign policy would likely be considerable, whether relating to migration, China, or Russia.

Elections in some smaller places may also have weighty international implications. Taiwan is perhaps the most important example, where the direction of the islands relations with China depends in some part on which party wins the January balloting. Divisions over policy toward China will be less intense but still salient in South Koreas legislative elections later in the year. In somewhat parallel fashion, the outcome of Georgias elections will be consequential for the countrys relationship with Russia, and by extension, regional security in the Caucasus. And if Venezuela does manage to hold genuinely competitive elections, one important element will be the potential continuation or reversal of the countrys long-standing hard-left foreign policy orientation, with major consequences for larger regional dynamics.

In short, the outcomes of many of this years elections will be critical to understanding the advance or retreat of democracy in the world and the intensification or easing of security tensions in multiple regions. For this reason, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is launching its Global Elections 2024 series. Once or twice each month, Carnegie will offer incisive videos and commentaries by leading country experts about key elections on the horizon, focusing on whats at stake in the elections, both for the country in question and for the regional and global dynamics at play.

*Correction, January 12, 2024: This sentence has been updated to more accurately reflect South Sudans political situation.

Read more:
Democracy and Geopolitics Are on the Ballot in 2024 - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Huang Chen-yu strode onto an outdoor stage in a southern Taiwanese county, whooping and hollering as she roused the crowd of 20,000 into a joyous frenzy to welcome a succession of politicians in matching jackets.

Taiwan is in the final days of its presidential election contest, and the big campaign rallies, with M.C.s like Ms. Huang, are boisterous, flashy spectacles as if a variety show and a disco crashed into a candidates town hall meeting.

At the high point of the rally, the Democratic Progressive Partys presidential candidate, Lai Ching-te, was introduced to the crowd in Chiayi, a county in southern Taiwan. Ms. Huang roared in Taiwanese, Frozen garlic!

The phrase dongsuan sounds like get elected and, yes, also like frozen garlic. Ms. Huang and another M.C. led the crowd of supporters, now on their feet, in a rapid-fire, call-and-response chant: Lai Ching-te! Frozen garlic! Lai Ching-te! Frozen garlic! Then they sped up: Lai Ching-te! Lai Ching-te! Lai Ching-te! Frozen garlic! Frozen garlic! Frozen garlic!

We are having trouble retrieving the article content.

Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.

Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit andlog intoyour Times account, orsubscribefor all of The Times.

Thank you for your patience while we verify access.

Already a subscriber?Log in .

Want all of The Times?Subscribe .

Visit link:
Taiwan Democracy Is Loud and Proud - The New York Times

2024 is going to be democracys biggest year ever. In a remarkable milestone in human history, over four billion people more than half of the worlds population across more than 40 countries will go to the polls.

National elections will be held in the United States, India, Indonesia, Russia, the United Kingdom, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Taiwan, Mexico, and South Africa to name just a few. The European Union will also go to the polls. This busy calendar of elections is as extraordinary for the diversity of nations and peoples participating as it is for its huge scale.

Its tempting to see this record as a triumph for democracy as the dominant organising principle for governing people in the modern world. But a closer examination shows democracy is at risk on many fronts. While these challenges take different forms in different jurisdictions, some clear patterns emerge. 2024 is going to be a rugged year for democracy, but there is still cause for cautious optimism about its future.

Heres a rundown of just some of the significant elections that will shape the world in 2024.

Read more: There will be more elections in 2024 than ever before here's how it could affect financial markets

The most high-stakes election of 2024 will be the US general election for the president, house of representatives and senate in November. For decades America has stood as the worlds most powerful democracy and a guarantor (if a flawed one) of democratic governments the world over.

Donald Trump is the likely Republican nominee. In his previous term as President he did more than any previous chief executive to undermine democracy according to a Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) analysis.

Now he is promising to punish his political opponents, override the independence of the Department of Justice and extend presidential power into non-political areas of government administration.

This prompted President Joe Biden to warn that Democracy is on the ballot in the 2024 Presidential vote.

At this stage, US voters do not seem to care too much, with Trump ahead in many key opinion polls.

The rise of democracy in India and Indonesia, the worlds second and fourth most populous nations, has been a game changer for the global advancement of human freedoms. The sheer scale of the elections in these developing nations, with a combined population of 1.7 billion, is also a miracle in modern administration.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems almost certain to be returned for a third term in an election to be likely held between April and May.

While Indonesian Defence Minister, Prabowo Subianto, is the clear frontrunner to become the next president of the worlds largest Muslim nation in February.

In both cases, there is the risk these strongman leaders will win power in free and fair elections but then oversee illiberal policies that put democratic institutions under strain.

The UK is likely to go to a general election in the second half of 2024. Current polling suggests it will result in the first change of government in 14 years with victory for the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer.

If that happens, it will be a reminder of democracys ability to enable the transfer of political power between opposing interests without widespread bloodshed something humankind has failed at for most of history.

Other elections in Europe will be a barometer of the standing of the populist far right.

The success of anti-Islam extremist Geert Wilders in elections in the Netherlands in November means many analysts are now predicting the far right will enjoy a surge in support in European parliament elections in June, as well as national elections in Austria, Belgium, Croatia and Finland.

Read more: Why the 2024 election cycle could result in more threats to US democracy

National elections are occurring in a dozen countries in Africa this year including Rwanda, Ghana, Tunisia, South Sudan and Algeria. But most attention will be on the mid-year election in South Africa which will be the most important since the end of apartheid in 1994.

Current polls suggest that after three decades in power the African National Congress (ANC) will not be able to garner the necessary 50% of votes needed to govern in its own right, bringing to an end 30 years of one-party rule.

Special mention must be made of the 2024 elections which will not be free and will not be fair.

Russia, Rwanda and Belarus are governed by tyrannical rulers who jail opponents and run bogus elections that deliver 90% majorities or higher.

Then there is the charade elections occurring in Bangladesh, Iran and Tunisia where leaders allow the opposition to compete, but not to win.

Elections are taking place against a backdrop of spreading illiberalism around the world, the weakening of independent institutions in some of the big democracies, and a creeping disillusionment in advanced democracies, especially among younger people, about the benefits of a democratic system.

But there is also reason for cautious optimism that the long arc of history continues to steer determinedly towards a more democratic world.

Read more: How religion and politics will mix in 2024 three trends to track

Democracy remains the model that most developing nations strive for. According to Freedom House, there were 69 electoral democracies in 1990 rising to 122 by 2014. It is telling that even dictators and despots feel the need to give themselves the appearance of a democratic mandate. And surveys of citizens in advanced democracies continue to show high levels of support for the ideals of democratic government.

Government of the people, for the people, by the people still holds significant advantages over all the other alternatives currently being tried. But in 2024 it will be tested mightily.

Read the original:
More than 4 billion people are eligible to vote in an election in 2024. Is this democracy's biggest test? - The Conversation

Taiwan’s upcoming election stands as a litmus test of the Chinese Communist Party’s political warfare strategy, specifically whether disinformation and military drills alone can bend Taipei’s will toward Beijing’s reunification designs. Yet, China’s bid to undermine Taiwan’s democracy also foreshadows its intent to influence the 2024 U.S. election — an act of subversion Washington cannot afford to ignore.  

This Saturday, 19 million Taiwanese voters will determine more than simply their next president and parliament; their choices will also profoundly impact the tenor of U.S.-China relations for the foreseeable future. With voters set to weigh in on various domestic issues, including inflation and energy security, the defining challenge casting a shadow over every ballot is how Taiwan should respond to the mainland’s growing aggression. Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s recent warning to President Biden about China’s urgency to “resolve” Taiwan’s status — sooner rather than later — underscores the seriousness of today’s tensions in the Taiwan Strait. 

Having hinged its great-power resurgence on reunifying with Taiwan, China has understandably been loath to leave the island’s political fate to chance. Indeed, for 10 years running, Taiwan has been the world’s top target of disinformation, according to a Stockholm University study that tracks authoritarian influence. That trend continued this year, with China unleashing a torrent of new disinformation aimed at undermining the ruling Democratic Progressive Party — which has pledged closer ties to the U.S. other democratic powers — and bolstering opposition candidates seeking improved ties with the mainland. Chief among China’s other disinformation goals is sowing distrust about U.S. security guarantees should Beijing one day invade.  

Without doubt, cyberspace serves as the primary arena for China’s disinformation offensive. Cyberattacks designed to crash Taiwanese networks and propagate falsehoods reached unprecedented levels last quarter, spiking 3,370 percent — a more than thirty fold increase over the prior year — according to security firm Cloudfare. In one case, Chinese social media content farms impersonated genuine Taiwanese news websites and propagated seemingly legitimate broadcast clips championing China’s preferred political narratives about the election, including how reunification is ‘inevitable.’ Meanwhile, Chinese disinformation watchdog Doublethink Labs revealed how algorithms on TikTok, owned by the Beijing-headquartered ByteDance, overwhelmingly amplify content critical of the DPP. 

Besides spreading rumors, China has also resorted to levying new trade restrictions on Taiwanese firms reliant on the mainland’s market, attributing the move to the DPP’s “stubborn adherence to Taiwan independence.” More recently, Xi ordered China’s military to conduct pre-election drills in and around Taiwan’s territorial waters. Such maneuvers serve as a stark reminder that Beijing could one-day resort to kinetic action if voting trends diverge further from China’s stated reunification goals.   

Altogether, the potential effectiveness of China’s tactics in Taiwan could set a precedent for similar operations targeting other democracies, with the goal of destabilizing and manipulating public opinion from within. Such a scenario underscores the urgency for American vigilance and preparedness against an adversary adept at the art of political subversion. 

Alarmingly, evidence of Chinese interference in the U.S. has already surfaced. Before Christmas, the Biden administration declassified intelligence exposing Chinese interference in the U.S. 2022 mid-terms. These insidious operations ranged from social media campaigns aimed at eroding voter confidence to directly interfering in several distinct races, including undermining a congressional candidate because he supported the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests. The White House has not clarified its two-year delay in releasing this critical assessment, nor does it appear to have censured China for its meddling, per readouts of recent bilateral engagements with Beijing.

As Taiwan tallies its votes, it’s incumbent on Washington to confront Beijing’s machinations head-on. The U.S. must not only pre-emptively denounce any form of meddling during the upcoming U.S. election but also enforce a doctrine of deterrence, articulating clear consequences for any transgressions. Continued inaction by Washington could be perceived as acquiescence in Beijing, inviting ever-greater interference in the future.  

Second, the Biden administration must commit to providing Congress and the public with regular updates regarding Chinese meddling in the run-up to November’s election. The White House and Congress should also encourage social media companies — including Twitter and Meta — to do the same. Such disclosures are particularly relevant because Chinese cyber-actors have weaponized these platforms in the past to manipulate voter sentiments around divisive themes like racial injustice, police brutality, and U.S. military assistance to Ukraine.  

Last, Washington should pro-actively share relevant insights regarding Chinese election meddling with the other 50 democracies scheduled to hold elections this year, while also encouraging other governments to do the same in the name of collective democratic defense. 

As the world observes Taiwan’s election unfold this week, we are reminded that authoritarian regimes are incessantly working to make the world less safe for democracy. Beijing’s maneuvering in Taiwan today could very well be a prelude to the challenges the U.S. will face tomorrow. The time for a coordinated and decisive response is now — not after Americans begin casting their votes.  

Craig Singleton is a senior fellow at the non-partisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former U.S. diplomat.  

Originally posted here:
Democracys high stakes in Taiwans vote - The Hill

Last weekend, Bangladeshs long-ruling Awami League won a significant election victory, taking a reported 222 seats out of a total of 298 available, according to the countrys Election Commission, which is heavily stacked with Awami League functionaries. This gives the Awami League and its increasingly autocratic leader, Sheikh Hasina, her fourth straight term in office and fifth term overall as prime minister.

More From Our Experts

Unfortunately, during Sheikh Hasinas time in office, she cracked down more and more on opposition parties, civil society, the press, and virtually any other form of opposition. The main opposition party, the BNP, declined to participate in this election, declaring it would not be free and fair. They were right. Sheikh Hasina refused to allow a caretaker government to take over during the election period. In the past, caretaker governments allowed freer and fairer campaigning and helped prevent the ruling party from dominating the election machinery and process. Thousands, even tens of thousands of members of the BNP, are in detention, and a number have been killed. According to The Guardian, The election has been described as a sham designed to cement Hasinas rule by exiled opposition leader Tarique Rahman. Rahmans party staged amonths-long protest campaign in 2023demanding the prime ministers resignation that saw at least eleven people killed and thousands of its supporters arrested.

More on:

Bangladesh

South Asia

Diamonstein-Spielvogel Project on the Future of Democracy

Elections and Voting

Leading democracies agreed that the election was not free and fair. The United Kingdom condemned it as unfree, and according to Reuters, a U.S. State Department spokesman said, The United States remains concerned by the arrests of thousands of political opposition members and by reports of irregularities on elections day The United States shares the view with other observers that these elections were not free or fair, and we regret that not all parties participated.

A curation of original analyses, data visualizations, and commentaries, examining the debates and efforts to improve health worldwide.Weekly.

Sheikh Hasinas actions are consistent with an ongoing, longstanding trend of democratic regression in South and Southeast Asia. This trend encompasses military takeovers and non-military autocracies or hybrid states that have quashed democracy, or at least a degree of freedom, in countries like Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, and Myanmar. Even bright spots like Thailand, which at least had an election last year, ultimately went against the popular will and ended up installing a coalition government that did not include the party that won the most votes.

There is little reason to hope that things will turn around, at least anytime soon, in the region. Democratic regression could worsen. Indonesias presidential elections are coming up, and Prabowo Subianto, the leading candidate, has previously suggested that he would rule as a strongman-type leader. In Cambodia, new leader Hun Manet may be more open to economic change but continues the repressive environment toward political opposition and civil society. With the United States distracted and China increasingly influential in the region, democrats face an uphill battle.

More From Our Experts

More on:

Bangladesh

South Asia

Diamonstein-Spielvogel Project on the Future of Democracy

Elections and Voting

Follow this link:
Bangladesh's Sham Election and the Regression of Democracy in South and Southeast Asia - Council on Foreign Relations