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Humans are susceptible to cons. We're even more likely to fall for larger-than-life personalities. This isn't me writing about the vague "other humans" out there, the ones that you and I (wink, wink) know exist but would never fall victim to. As economist and journalist, Tim Harford the author of the bestselling book, The Undercover Economist recently told me, the con is "baked into" human nature.

Yet, as he explores in his excellent new podcast, "Cautionary Tales," we can learn from past mistakes. Take a few deep breaths, count to 10, make better decisions decisions, he points out on his podcast, that can save lives. We can better educate ourselves to learn about things we think we know about but actually do not.

Part of Pushkin Industries, the company co-founded by Malcolm Gladwell and Jacob Weisberg, Harford joins Gladwell and Michael Lewis for a series that explores the meaning behind both historical and modern-day events. In the debut episode, Harford discusses the tragic Torrey Canyon reef crash in 1967, which dumped 120,000 short tons of crude oil into the waters near Cornwall. The captain's inability to change course is, in itself, a lesson about the value of admitting mistakes and putting our new-found knowledge into action.

In episode two, we hear the story of Wilhelm Voigt, a Berlin native that isn't a captain but played one in society, an incredible story that shows us the depths of our beliefs in powerful con men. Harford discusses the political consequences of such cons during our interview. I'm sure you can guess where that conversation ends up.

As with Revisionist History and Against the Rules, "Cautionary Tales" is a welcome addition to podcasting. Humans might fall for cons and be unwilling to own up to mistakes, but we're also animals with a deep love for storytelling. Harford excels at that medium, both in writing and narration. The podcast is a pleasure to listen to and, bonus, you might just learn something along the way.

A powerful way to unleash your natural creativity | Tim Harford

Derek: Your new podcast is on Pushkin, which has this vibe of radio from a century ago. It's not just people talking; there's music, sound effects, and acting involved. Why did you go that route with "Cautionary Tales"?

Tim: One of the things that quickly became clear as I was looking at the stories that I wanted to tell is that very often these are stories where we don't have tape. We don't have a lot of archival footage. Very often there was nobody there when it happened. The journalist showed up afterwards; in some casesthere's one story that's two and a half thousand years oldwe don't have tapes.

What do you do? Well, you can do the usual thing, which is to put an expert in an arm chair and ask him or her to explain what happened. We wanted to do something different. These little historical reenactments are like fresh herbs and spices throughout the podcast. These little scenes include a very different way to access a story that you wouldn't have another way to tell.

Derek: Your show is billed as "the science behind what happens." There has long been a replication problem in science. I know you mostly deal with the social sciences, but what was your training in science and why did you choose what you chose when approaching a topic?

Tim: It's a very good point because of the replication crisisI think crisis is the right word. One of the issues is people looking for the perfectly counter-intuitive results, the thing that's just weird enough to be surprising and yet not so weird that you completely dismiss it. There's a lot of psychology published that has been filtered through that medium. I'm coming at it from a slightly different angle.

Rather than the coolest new study that might surprise you, I'm saying, "This thing happened, this oil tanker hit the rocks or this economist was the most famous economist in the world and he went bankrupt or they gave the Oscar to the wrong movie." Start with that story and then say, "What is it that social scientists can tell us about that story? What are the explanations?" Very often you find there's more than one explanation. There's usually no single cause. Then the question is: What explains it? What do the people who have thought hard about this sort of thing make of these accidents?

I talk about Milgram's experiments, but I try to remind people that a lot of the experiments that he did were not reported. These are very famous electric shock and obedience experiments. I'm trying to pick that apart and think about what modern psychologists now make of those experiments of what they think those experiments really tell usto not to be uncritical in the way that I think about these studies.

Derek: I've read that study in many different contexts. The way you frame it about being an example not of obedience, but of a willingness to admit our mistakes, is really important. Why are we so unwilling to admit when we're wrong?

Tim: That's a big question. In some cases it's a social thing. In politics, for example, you don't want to admit that you're wrong because you're conceding ground to the other side and you don't want to lose faith socially. You don't want to lose political advantage. In other cases, you personally have committed so much to a particular viewpoint that it becomes extraordinarily painful to face up to the error.

This is the old idea of cognitive dissonance, which I explore in an episode about John Maynard Keynes and Irving Fisher, two great economists and their forecasting. Long story short, both are geniuses; both get really into stock market investing. One goes bankrupt; one dies a millionaire. What explains the differences?

One of them is willing to admit he made a mistake and one is not. Irving Fisher is more exposed. He's more publicly committed. He's going to lose face socially. But he's also too deep in debt to admit "I'm getting this wrong, I need to change direction." It's more painful to the sense of who he is, which the guy who doesn't make mistakes.

There's a third problem, which is something I emphasized in Adapt: We didn't know we made a mistake. No one ever tells you that you made a mistake; no one ever gives you the feedback. That's a very common problem.

Derek: Your podcast is supposed to help us learn from our mistakes. How do you help people actually learn what is in their best interest? Is that even possible?

Tim: This is something I explore in the final episode, which is about what happens when we just hand over our process to an authority figure or to a computer algorithm. What happens when we just let our GPS tell us where to go? One of the really interesting groups of studies that I talk about in that episode is what happens when you are forced to stop and think. These studies explore something called the illusion of explanatory depth.

In the initial study, they say, "How well do you reckon that you know how a flush laboratory works on a scale of zero to seven?" People will say, "Oh yeah, maybe six." Then the researchers say, "That's really interesting. Here's a pen and paper. Just explain to us in detail how it works." People get really stuck because they realize they don't know how it works. It was all a bit vague. They weren't lying to the researchers; they were lying to themselves. They felt that they understood this everyday object and they didn't.

The next study asked the same questions but about politics. It's by a different group of researchers. They said, "Tell us how a cap and trade system works. Tell us how the US will apply unilateral sanctions on Iran. How does that actually work?" People often feel they know pretty well what these policies are. Then again, when you ask them to explain, not to advocate, don't tell me whether it's a good idea, just tell me what it is. Again, people go, "Ah hmm. Uh hmm. I thought I knew but I don't know."

What's fascinating is that people's views about politics become more moderate. They think, quite reasonably, "Maybe my previous view that I was willing to die in a ditch to defend cap and trade or to prevent cap and trade, maybe that view that I thought was super important, maybe I shouldn't hold that view so strongly anymore given that I didn't really understand what it is that I'm talking about."

Not in every Cautionary Tale, but it comes up again and again, is that if you can calm down and slow down, whatever terrible thing happened wouldn't have happened if somebody had been able to count to 10 and think about what was going on.

Derek: When I was listening to episode two, I was reminded of a story growing up. There was a sporting goods chain called Herman's. Two men walked in, went to the back of the store, and grabbed a canoe. They put it over their heads and walked out of the store. It took 20 minutes for anyone to realize that they stole it.

Tim: Because they just walked right out as if they had bought it.

Derek: You say the judge, at the end of "The Captain of Kpenick," goes down and shakes Voigt's hand even though he admitted his crime and was a con man. What do we learn from that?

Tim: We're tremendously subjected to appearances. I wish I had a silver bullet for that one, some pill you could take that would cure us of that. I talk about the fact that just being tall is tremendously advantageous if you're running for political office.

Tim Harford: What Prison Camps Can Teach You About the Economy

Derek: I'm six-three, so I appreciated that.

Tim: Yeah, me too. As far as presidents go, that's not that tall. When you look at it, it's like they're picking a basketball team. It's a myth that the taller candidate always wins, but it definitely seems to be an advantage. The example of appearances matching the eye that I just can't get my head around is the adverts where the guy says, "I'm not a doctor, I just play one on TV," as though it's the most natural thing in the world. And it clearly works! That that advert ran for a long time is absolutely astonishing.

Even this particular con man, Wilhelm Voigt, would not have said, "I'm not actually a military captain. I'm just wearing the uniform." Of course, I can't help but think of a certain president who's most famous for playing a successful business man on TV. He's famous for acting as a businessman. It makes a huge difference to how we perceive the world.

Derek: Do we ever get over that? Is that something we can teach out of ourselves?

Tim: I have never seen a piece of research that says there is a cure for that. That is why, for example, blind recruitment processes and blind audition processes are so powerful. Claudia Goldin and Cecilia Rouse studied what happens when the great American orchestras switched to blind auditions. They thought they were doing it to prevent discrimination against particular students who have powerful teachers; they didn't only want the "in crowd" to be recruited. They put up screens so you wouldn't know who was playing. Surprise, surprise, suddenly a load of women who previously wouldn't thought to be good enough were being recruited.

It's not enough to just tell people, "You shouldn't discriminate against women. Hey, don't be too impressed by uniforms. Treat people who don't look attractive the same way as you treat attractive people." You can tell people that, but I'm not sure it makes a great deal of difference. We can, again, slow down, have a think, and ask ourselves, "Am I overweighting this person's appearance? Am I favoring this person for president because they they look presidential rather than this other person who doesn't seem to look like what I imagined the president to look like?"

I don't think there is an easy cure for that. That's heavily baked in human nature. It's simpler with con artists. If you can slow them down and slow yourself down enough, you can usually spot the con. With a more subtle influence, like who we want to run our companies and who we want to run our country, appearances are always going to matter.

--

Stay in touch with Derek on Twitter and Facebook.

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How has the internet splintered our democracy? - Big Think

On Wednesday, 75 people gathered at Alumni Hall to close out Youth-Nexs program entitled Dialoging for Democracy: Youth Moral Reasoning and Social Justice. The two-day symposium invited researchers, policy makers, professors and students to discuss how to promote productive conversations about democracy and social justice.

This is Youth-Nexs seventh annual symposium. Youth-Nex is a 10-year-old Curry school program that promotes the application of Positive Youth Development sciences to enhance youth education.

Nancy Deutsch, director of Youth-Nex and a professor in the Curry school, said that the symposium comes from the organizations effort to bring together people who share a commitment to supporting positive youth development, but who may not always be the same spaces or draw on the same sources of information and knowledge.

She also noted that the program is critical for people involved in youth development because it encouraged a collaboration of ideas from different practices.

We invited researchers, practitioners and young people who we knew were doing cutting edge work in this field and/or who have been leaders in advancing our understanding of these developmental processes and practices to speak at the conference, Deutsch said.

According to Deutsch, this years theme relates to projects that Youth-Nex and the Curry School of Education are undertaking with different partners such as the Center for Race and Public Education in the South around the development of teachers resources for teaching democracy.

Deutsch described what Dialoging for Democracy meant and said it referred to supporting young people in their activism.

I believe that youth development issues are social justice issues, and that part of our work as a center should be to support young people in making change that promotes equity, and this years conference reflects that, Deutsch said.

Youth-Nexs emphasis on young activists comes from a belief that while young people are the future of democracy, they also currently participate in creating social changes. According to Deutsch, the symposium highlighted how too often schools and other youth serving spaces dont support young peoples democratic engagement or are not equipped to have the kinds of dialogues, debates, and discussions that are required for a participatory democracy to thrive. This failure ultimately comes from inadequate development of kids ability to hold productive conversations with people they disagree with and have their voices be heard.

We wanted to discuss the foundations of moral reasoning as a developmental process from an empirical standpoint as well as highlight programs that are engaging youth in the kinds of activities that promote democratic engagement and moral reasoning, as well as amplify youths own voices in discussions of how this work should be done, Deutsch said.

Some programs highlighted at the symposium included Camp Common Ground, Teen Empowerment and Side by Side Youth Leadership Council. All these groups are dedicated to instilling leadership qualities in kids and thus changing peoples perspective of them from being at-risk to instead having opportunities available.

On the second day of the program, a panel was held that included Deutsch along with Derrick Aldrige, a professor of Education; Melody Barnes, a professor of Public Affairs and former assistant to President Obama; and Patrick Tolan, a professor of Education. They tackled questions such as What is democracy? and What is the role of dialogue in democracy?

This dialogue centered for instance on Deutschs seven-year-old daughters frustration in school, as her daughter said that the school was trying to tame her. The panel then discussed how society needs to harness young peoples energy instead, discussing how student council should change to model American democracy more accurately and encouraging youth citizenship programs so kids can lead more productive conversations.

We need kids to think about how education is liberation We need to recognize that we participate in history and not exist outside of it, Aldridge said.

After this talk, Josue Sarmiento, Haisell Franco and Sofhia Pineda presented their movie Nosotros, a film about Latinx students at Albemarle High School.

The films purpose is to challenge stereotypes of immigrants and detail the struggles immigrants face in adjusting to life in the United States, said Sarmineto.

In the closing remarks of the program, Deutsch asked the audience to write on a sticky note something they will do as a result of attending the program. Answers ranged from revitalizing programs that instill citizenship in youths to allowing children to participate in discussions about the operations of their school.

This all echoed the closing ceremonys message provided by Johari Harris, a research associate at the University, who said, People love youth voice but need adult action. Thats why youth talk alongside adults, so adults can go forth and create change on behalf of youths.

CORRECTION: This article previously misspelled Johari Harris' first name and has been updated for accuracy.

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Curry School program hosts two day symposium on dialogue and democracy - University of Virginia The Cavalier Daily

A national political organization recognized members of the student voter advocacy organization TX Votes for helping increase student voter turnout in the 2018 midterm elections.

The ALL IN Campus Democracy Challenge is a nonpartisan organization that supports and recognizes colleges, students and faculty for promoting political engagement, said Catherine Fish, associate director for the challenge. The Universitys voting turnout for eligible student voters improved to 65.6% in 2018 from 23.5% in 2014, according to a University press release.

The University earned the award for most improved voter rate among large public universities, according to ALL IN Campus Democracy Challenges website.

Kassie Phebillo, fifth year doctoral student in the Universitys communication studies program, said TX Votes implemented a classroom voter registration program in 2018 which saw over 250 classrooms, from small classes to lecture halls, register to vote.

Phebillo said the organization also hosted voter registration events to increase voter turnout, such as Vote Fest, which involved organizations in the Civic Engagement Alliance. The alliance, which is managed by TX Votes, contains over 110 UT student organizations that are committed to engaging their members in the voting process, she said.

Phebillo won the outstanding graduate student award for helping increase voter turnout. She said TX Votes hopes to get involved with more University events.

A lot of the ways where we would like to improve, we would need a lot of support from the University, Phebillo said. For the first time this fall, we were invited to Mooov-In, and we registered close to a thousand people we are hoping to get included into more of those processes.

Maya Patel, former TX Votes president, was awarded the Student Honor Roll award for helping increase voter turnout. Patel, a chemistry senior pursuing a certificate in public policy, said seeing how many students voted as a result of their efforts is a testament to the difference students can make.

Its incredible that we were able to turn out students in a midterm election at rates that are seen in presidential elections, Patel said. This proves that young people do vote, and when we make sure that young people have access to be able to vote, they do.

Fish said although student voter turnout saw a resurgence in 2018, student voters need to be constantly engaged throughout their lives.

People need to be engaged democratically on an ongoing basis, during and between elections, Fish said. Thats the only way to help realize the goals and vision of full participation among students.

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TX Votes members recognized by ALL IN Democracy Challenge for increasing student voting participation - UT The Daily Texan

To protect and strengthen a "democracy in peril," more than 150 civil rights organizations on Thursday released a far-reaching policy platform aimed at pressuring policymakers and 2020 candidates to prioritize voting rights.

Led by the Leadership Conference on Human and Civil Rights, the organizations offered "concrete policy recommendations" and proposed "a unified vision for ensuring that Americans have a strong, functioning democracy."

The six major areas in which bold reforms must be enacted were identified in the platform, called Vision for Democracy, as:

"When our democracy is in peril, so too are our civil rights," said Vanita Gupta, president of the Leadership Conference. "This platform offers tangible proposals to ensure every eligible voter, no matter who they are and regardless of their race, color, language, or ability can participate freely in our democracy. Our vote is our voice."

Policy recommendations within the platform include passing the Native American Voting Rights Act; prohibiting restrictive voter ID requirements; restoring voting rights to all currently and formerly incarcerated citizens; and standardizing the use of early voting systems across the country.

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The groups, which also include the Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, the Center for Constitutional Rights, and Voto Latino, noted that none of the 2020 Democratic presidential debates have included questions about voting rights, despite recent reports that 17 million Americans were purged from voter rolls between 2016 and 2018 and that voting machines across the country are at risk for malfunctions and cyberattacks.

"On the eve of the next Democratic presidential candidate debate, we implore the debate moderators to ask candidates questions about their proposals to build a truly representative democracy that ensures all voices are heard," the coalition said.

Sherrilyn Ifill, president of the NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund, emphasized that the current vulnerabilities and unequal rights within the U.S. voting system are the result of political choices.

"At the current moment, our voting system is neither secure, equally accessible, nor fair," Ifill said. "The good news is that there are simple and direct solutions to every one of the problems with our voting system. Now all we need is the will, determination, and responsible leadership of elected and other public officials to come together and address this crisis."

Kristen Clarke of the Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law added that the policy platform comes six years after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a key portion of the Voting Rights Act which aimed, among other things, to combat racial discrimination at the polls.

"We face these threats without important statutory protections that have served as a bulwark against voter suppression since 1965, and with a dormant Department of Justice," Clarke said. "Vision for Democracy sets forth a comprehensive and robust blueprint for tearing down the obstacles and barriers that, too often, lock out African Americans and other racial minorities from the electoral process. This blueprint is needed more than ever."

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To Save 'Democracy in Peril,' 150 Civil Rights Groups Release Visionary Blueprint to Restore and Protect Voting Rights - Common Dreams

Alberta Chief Electoral Officer Lorne Gibson in front of the Legislature in this Postmedia file photo.John Lucas / Postmedia

The United Conservative Party governments move to terminate the provinces election commissioner and move the role under the chief electoral officer raises questions about independence and risks undermining Albertans faith in democracy, the outgoing commissioner said.

Election commissioner Lorne Gibson found out through news reports Monday a government bill would end his contract four years early, he said in a Tuesday statement.

The government move, done in the name of administrative efficiency, could potentially jeopardize any ongoing investigations into elections violations, including the UCPs 2017 leadership race. People and organizations involved in that race have already faced a combined $211,000 in fines and penalties after the commissioner said they funnelled money improperly to candidates, colluded to organize forbidden campaign donations and obstructed an investigation.

Earlier this year, evidence surfaced suggesting leadership contender Jeff Callaway was a kamikaze candidate in the new partys leadership contest, there to attack former Wildrose leader Brian Jean, and that Callaways campaign staff co-operated with now-Premier Jason Kenneys staff.

In a Tuesday statement, Gibson said he was surprised and disappointed to learn that if the governments Bill 22 passes and receives royal assent, hell be out of a job.

This disappointment stems from my firm belief that the citizens of Alberta must have confidence and trust in the integrity of all aspects of the provincial electoral process, not just the casting and counting of ballots on election day, Gibson said. This includes trust and confidence that the election laws established by the legislative assembly are being followed and that there are consequences for those who choose not to follow them.

November 19, 2019 Media Release Aberta Election Commissioner by edmontonjournal on Scribd

The election commissioner position was created in 2018 by the former NDP government after it introduced new rules banning corporate and union donations and capping political contributions. The province needed an office separate from the chief electoral officer to enforce the new rules and investigate potential wrongdoing, they said.

Introduced on Monday, the omnibus Bill 22 would move the commissioners role under the chief electoral officer. That officer, or a newly hired commissioner, would decide whether to continue any ongoing investigations into election rule breaking.

The Opposition NDP has alleged the move smacks of corruption and could interfere with ongoing investigations into potential wrongdoing by members of government.

Government house leader Jason Nixon said Tuesday a new commissioners work would be even more independent from government, because they would report to the chief electoral officer, not the legislature.

Any investigations that the chief electoral officer and the election commissioner deem that need to continue forward will continue, and thats the process were going forward with, he told reporters.

Senior investigations manager Steve Kaye, who works in Gibsons office, said Tuesday he could not say whether the commissioner has any ongoing investigations into the UCP leadership race, or any other investigations, for that matter.

He wouldnt speculate on how the structural change might affect ongoing court appeals of the commissioners findings by Callaway and others.

Gibsons letter said he has received 800 complaints since it opened last year.

NDP Opposition leader Rachel Notley said Tuesday she would try everything she could think of to halt Bill 22. She penned a letter to Albertas Lt.-Gov. Lois Mitchell Tuesday asking her not to grant the bill royal assent, saying Notley has grave concerns that Bill 22 is a misuse of the authority of the legislature.

Nixon said Notleys allegations of collusion and investigation interference are utterly ridiculous and fake outrage.

In Tuesday question period, Notley asked the premier (who was in Texas) to withdraw the bill, saying it attempts to cover up the truth and potentially obstruct justice.

When Nixon disputed Gibson was being fired from the commissioner role, Notley said he was misleading the house.

Speaker Nathan Cooper interjected to say house rules do not permit members to accuse one another of lying or misleading. When Cooper told her to apologize and withdraw the statement, Notley refused, which prompted Cooper to dismiss her from the chamber for the rest of Tuesday.

After, Notley told reporters it was her first time being ejected from the house since elected in 2008.

We will not stand by while people are fired for doing their job trying to hold this government to account, she said.

According to the legislature library, the last time a member was ejected from the house was April 18, 2016, when then-Progressive Conservative party leader Ric McIver refused to sit down when he didnt like a ruling by the speaker. Speaker Bob Wanner dispatched the Sargeant-at-Arms to escort him from the chamber.

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Election commissioner worries his firing will erode public trust in democracy - Edmonton Journal