Archive for the ‘Democracy’ Category

Indias growing crisis of democracy

NEW DELHI Of the panoply of challenges faced by the leader of a large democracy, some are perennial (when is the economy not an issue?) and usually of a low intensity; others are seasonal and high-stakes.

This week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has found his forbearance and strategic capabilities exercised to their fullest by a domestic crisis (to some citizens, a foreign policy one) partly of his own making. An ambitious political experiment engineered by Modi and his Hindu nationalist party in the border state of Jammu and Kashmir the only Muslim-majority state in India threatens to implode within just a few days of its inauguration.

The largest region within Jammu and Kashmir is the Kashmir Valley, the tinderbox of South Asia. The valley has been the subject of hostilities between India and Pakistan for seven decades, since the controversial accession, by its Hindu king, of the state of Kashmir to India in 1947.

In recent decades, it has also been the site of a separatist movement that has, in the hands of different agents, taken recourse both to arms and the ballot box. Most Kashmiris resent the militarization of their state and the special powers exercised from above by New Delhi.

But if Kashmiris stand accused by many Indians from other parts of the country as being anti-Indian, most Indians, through a combination of arrogance and ignorance, fail to see that the democracy run with a benign face from New Delhi has a much more brutal face in the valley, and its conduct in Kashmir provides a case study in how pluralism goes bad.

Among the many causes held sacred by Modis Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party is that Kashmir is an inviolable part of India. This hard-line stance has meant that the BJP has traditionally had little cachet in the state and has only been able to wield influence there when in power in Delhi which of course only further antagonizes the Kashmiris.

But in Jammu and Kashmirs state elections in November, once again the Modi effect took hold, just as it had in the national elections of May and several state elections thereafter. The BJP made huge advances to emerge as the second-largest party in the 87-member house and in a position of special strength, while the party with the largest number of legislators, the Kashmiri Peoples Democratic Party, was unable to garner a simple majority. The BJP was faced with a conundrum: On one hand, it sensed an expansion of its electoral frontier into the territory most resistant to it across India, but to do so, it would have to do business with a party that, if not explicitly separatist, certainly sees the movement for Kashmiri independence as a legitimate one.

For two months, party strategists negotiated with the brain trust of the PDP until an accord was finally announced. Both sides agreed, impressively, to give up or suspend a key plank of their Kashmir policies: The BJP would give up its (in the eyes of some, unconstitutional) demand for the repeal of Article 370 in the Indian Constitution, which grants some special concessions to Kashmir, while the PDP would not agitate for the termination of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act, which gives the central government sweeping powers to arrest suspected militants in Kashmir and detain them without trial.

It was greatly to Modis credit, then, and a sign of New Delhis maturity on the question of separatism, that he could engineer an alliance that made it seem, in the words of one Kashmiri observer, that the north and south poles have embraced each other. (In fact, even as the prime minister put his political credibility at stake, hard-liners on the right predicted a swift demise for the alliance, citing the very same reasons.)

The new government was sworn in earlier this month in the capital, Srinagar, with the PDPs head, Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, as chief minister. Kashmir has been a problem in front of every prime minister, whether it was Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, Atal Bihari Vajpayee or now Narendra Modi, Sayeed said after taking his oath. We want to change history and make this alliance a turning point in history.

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Indias growing crisis of democracy

The Fix: Democracy: Still slightly more popular than college basketball!

Over the course of the next exciting (if you enjoy college basketball / annoying if you don't) month, some 70 million Final Four brackets will be filled out, according to estimates from the American Gaming Association. Seventy million! That's 22 percent of the population of the United States, and, as the AGA gleefully notes, it is a figure "greater than the number of ballots cast for either President Obama (66 million) or Mitt Romney (61 million) in the 2012 election." In fact, it's more than the number of ballots cast for any presidential candidate in history -- much less any other office since the nation was founded.

However, we are comparing not only apples and oranges on this; we are comparing space debris and flower petals. Democracy is still more popular than gambling. For now. In a sense.

Yes, 70 million is greater than the number of people who voted for Obama or Romney in 2012. But it is just about equal to the number of votes cast for Obama in his 2008 landslide. There's not a lot of wiggle room in the AGA's estimate, either: That year, Obama got 69.5 million votes.

But also? That was from a pool of 131 million votes, which is a better comparison. After all, comparing total ballots (in the case of the basketball brackets) with votes received (in the Obama/Romney example) doesn't match up. Now, if all 70 million of those brackets had, say, Ohio State winning the tournament, then we've got a contest. In 2008, there were 131.5 million votes cast, nearly double the number of brackets that might be filled out this year.

Another point. The AGA estimates that people will, on average, fill out two brackets. Which, of course, is not how our democracy works. When voting for president, you get one vote. If you got more than one, it's pretty clear that Romney and Obama would each have gotten far more than 70 million votes. (If you want to share your conspiracy theories about how voter fraud influenced the 2012 elections, feel free to do so on Twitter.) Only about 40 million people will actually fill out a bracket -- Bob-Dole-in-1996 levels of support.

There has been a push in some places (including Los Angeles) to offer a similar reward for voting as you can receive from filling out a bracket: pride in doing your civic duty money. Clearly, most people are filling out brackets not because they have any idea how Marquette stacks up against Belmont but because they get $50 if they have better guesses than their co-workers.* LA's theory is that if you treat a ballot like a lottery ticket, there will be even more ballots cast.

The AGA's real goal, of course, is to get us talking about the AGA and gambling, so nice work. But the good news for everyone else is that the AGA appears to be somewhat iffy on math. So if you see them at the casino, sit at their table. You should do pretty well.

* Gambling is illegal in a lot of places, and no one does it of course, hahaha, right? Right.

Philip Bump writes about politics for The Fix. He is based in New York City.

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The Fix: Democracy: Still slightly more popular than college basketball!

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