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Americans political preferences shifted dramatically over 2021, swinging from a nine percentage-point lead for Democrats at the beginning of the year to ending with a five-point advantage for Republicans, according to a poll released Monday.

In the first quarter of 2021, 49 percent of Americans said they identified as a Democrat or leaned Democratic, while 40 percent identified as Republican or leaned Republican, according to a Gallup survey.

The Democrats lead over the GOP was the highest since the fourth quarter of 2012.

The percentage for Democrats remained unchanged at 49 percent going into the second quarter, but the percentage for Republicans ticked up three percentage points.

Then in thethird quarter, Republicans topped Democrats 45 percent to 44 percent a trend that continued through the final three months of 2021.

Republicans ended the year with a 47 percent to 42 percent advantage over Democrats.

The reversal appears to track President Bidens downward slide in the polls that began in July and August because of the disastrous US military withdrawal from Afghanistan and the sputtering economy a decline thatculminated in record low numbers for Biden by the end of the year.

The pollster noted that the GOP has held a five-point lead in only four quarters since it began measuring party identification in 1991, one of them occurring after the 1994 midterm elections when Republicans gained control of Congress for the first time since 1952.

Gallup attributed the shifting preferences to the changing poll numbers over the year for Biden and former President Donald Trump.

While Trumps job approval ratings fell to 34 percent in January the lowest of his term Biden was enjoying ratings in the mid-50s after his inauguration on Jan. 20.

By December, Bidens job approval ratings had plummeted to around 40 percent, brought down by a surge in coronavirus cases, increasing inflation and a stalled legislative agenda.

The survey results are based on aggregated data from interviews with 12,000 randomly sampled adults during the year, Gallup said.

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Party preferences shifted from Dems to GOP in 2021, survey finds - New York Post

Democrats have notoriously attempted to throw the Heisman hands at their policies when they turn south and point the finger to the Republicans, case in point:

Gerrymanderinglike the Ku Klux Klan, segregation of the Armed Forces, ending of Reconstruction, Jim Crow, current-day voting restrictions, and the list goes onare all creations of, you guessed it, the Democrat Party.

The so-called attempt to disenfranchise minorities through gerrymandering has the Democrats' DNA all over it, and if you know your history, you'd understand this statement. Full stop, a non-political assertion, the Democrats invented gerrymandering. Have you ever wondered where the name gerrymandering originated? Unfortunately, the answer does not live in textbook materials in your middle school civics book; however, it does live in a multitude of literature that is easily accessible courtesy of the internet.

The word "gerrymander" originated when theBoston Gazettepublished a political cartoon depicting a newly drawn serpent-like district in Massachusetts by Jeffersonian Republicans, formally known today as the Democrat Party. The man who signed off on this politicalized map (although admittedly reluctant) was the then governor of the commonwealth and future fifth vice president of the United States, a man by the name Eldridge Gerry. Oppositionists in the press quickly reacted and labeled the political move "The Gerry Mander," a play on the governor's last name and the shape of the newly created district that resembled a salamander. This name lives on till this day.

The practice of gerrymandering would continue through the late 18th and 19th centuries, but the method remarkably increased when Black men gained access to vote. Democrat-controlled states in the South drew partisan districts to maximize the electoral edge for the White southern-supported Democrats, rather than the Black-supported GOP. The tactic arranged for bizarre-shaped sections intended to concentrate Black voters in one district, thus cementing white-majority districts. One of the most egregious examples of this was the creation of the "boa constrictor" district in the Democrat-controlled state of South Carolina. This racist and absurd formation sliced and slithered the state into one snake-like area of Black Americans (the majority residents), leaving the rest as a safehold for white South Carolinians.

It wasn't until the Republican-appointed Chief Justice Earl Warren ruled that all state voting districts must have roughly equal populations. Under this ruling, the Court also added that states must update their federal congressional districts every ten years and that each of the 435 members represented that same number of citizens. The Voting Rights Act of 1965 (notably receiving more "no" votes from Democrats than Republicans) also helped ensure more equitable districts.

You see, the Democrats can run, but they cannot hide from the truth when it comes to gerrymandering their fingerprints are all over it.

As nearly half of all states have approved their new districts based on the latest census, we see more glaring examples of Democrats crying foul while being the primary abusers of the politicization of this practice. Look no further than the state of Illinois, where Democrats dominate the process and have historically manufactured figure eight-like districts that benefit their party.

Look, neither side of the aisle is entirely innocent when drawing partisan lines. As a Republican, I am well aware of both successful and unsuccessful attempts to taint the process with politicsbut it is grossly disingenuous for the Democrats to deny their longstanding history as the main contributors of gerrymandering. For example, in 2022 alone, the Democrat-controlled Assembly in Maryland all but erased the sole Republican district in the state, the worst offenders in Illinois essentially Christmas-treed their districts to secure their majorities and pin Republican members against each other, and in New Mexico, the Democrats shifted an R+14 CD to a D+4 CD drastically impacting my Republican colleague, Yvette Herrell of the 2nd District.

Racial divisions are the Democrats' one-trick pony in politics. They will pull every trick up their sleeves to deceive the American people into believing that minorities in America live in the times of the past. In recent elections, minorities voted in record numbers with some leaving the Democrat Party and voting for conservative ideals. The myth about Republicans' role in disenfranchising minorities through gerrymandering is a shell game from the Democrats' ongoing efforts to cling onto political power. When you think of gerrymandering, think Democrat Partythe two are inseparable.

Byron Donalds represents Floridas 19th District.

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Democrats created gerrymanderingthey must own it | TheHill - The Hill

SOUTH BEND Jason Critchlow, the former St. Joseph County Democratic chairman who intended to run for county commissioner this year, said Thursday he is withdrawing and endorsing another Democrat amid the ongoing dispute over redrawn county election maps.

Critchlow said he is endorsing Don Westerhausen, a Granger cardiologist who announced his candidacy Thursday for the District 1 seat on the Board of Commissioners, the countys executive body.

Two Republicans Carl Baxmeyer and Robert Butch Wood have filed to run for the GOP nomination.

Critchlow spent much of 2021 raising money for the election, but a redistricting plan approved by the commissioners in November would remove his home from District 1, currently represented by Andy Kostielney, the Republican president of the commissioners.

Editorial: Did a dog eat the emails of St. Joseph County officials?

Theelection maps are now held up in court, after the Democratic-controlled County Council filed a lawsuit seeking to block the GOP redistricting plan.

With the outcome of the redistricting fight unclear, Critchlow said, he decided to step aside for Westerhausen, whose home would fall within District 1 under both the previous map and the version passed by the commissioners.

The County Council has filed litigation in court to challenge these maps, and as of this date, we dont know when thats going to be resolved, Critchlow said. Unfortunately, I think were at the point where the most responsible thing to do is to step aside now so another candidate can get their campaign up and running.

The commissioners redistricting plan, proposed by Kostielney with help from former Indiana House Speaker Brian Bosmas law firm, would make sweeping changes to the countys election maps and could give Republicans an edge for the next decade.

The plan would give Republicans a bigger advantage in two of the three commissioner districts, while shifting Democrats and racial minorities to the third. At the same time, the plan could give Republicans more favorable County Council seats, because three council districts must nest within each of the three commissioner districts.

At stake for Democrats is a two-thirds majority on the nine-member council, allowing them to override vetoes by the commissioners.

The councils lawsuit argues the state laws that govern St. Joseph Countys unusual redistricting and election process are illegal under the Indiana constitution because they single out the county for different rules than the vast majority of the state.

St. Joseph County is unusual because it has a nine-member council, with every member elected by voters in one district. Almost every county in the state has a seven-member council, with four elected in districts and three elected by voters countywide. In most counties, all three commissioners are also elected countywide, whereas St. Joseph Countys are elected in districts.

The lawsuit alleges the current state law deprives St. Joseph County voters of the same privilegesenjoyed in other counties, where every voter can help elect a majority of the council one district member and three at-large members plus all three commissioners.

Republicans, on the other hand, have pointed out Democrats never objected to St. Joseph Countys rules until now, when faced with a redistricting plan that wont benefit them.

Westerhausen has run two unsuccessful campaigns for Indiana House District 5, losing narrowly to incumbent Republican state Rep. Dale DeVon in both 2018 and 2020. DeVon won by 427 votes about 1.5 percentage points in 2020 and by about 500 votes in 2018.

Critchlow was expected to announce his withdrawal at a press conference Thursday evening in downtown South Bend, with local Democratic officials on hand to throw their support behind Westerhausen.

No matter how the redistricting fight plays out, District 1 will be an open seat in this years election, after Kostielney announced in November that he would not seek re-election.

Baxmeyer has been a prominent figure in St. Joseph County Republican politics for more than three decades. He ran a close but unsuccessful race for South Bend mayor against Democrat Joe Kernan in 1987. He also ran unsuccessfully for Congress against Democrat Tim Roemer in 1992, and for the Indiana House against Democrat Ryan Dvorak in 2002.

Baxmeyer served as the St. Joseph County GOP chairman through much of the 1990s.

Wood is a Clay Township firefighter.

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Former St. Joseph County Dem chair withdraws from commissioner race; Westerhausen to run - South Bend Tribune

Sen. Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said were gonna fight like hell for it.

Their comments came in wake of a press conference Wednesday in which Biden said the credit is one of the really big components that I feel strongly about that Im not sure I can get in the package.

In a pair of subsequent television interviews, Brian Deese, a top economic aide to Biden, cited other priorities he said Democrats could rally around, while conspicuously omitting the child credit.

The dispute comes as Democrats took a break from tense negotiations over the package to focus on voting rights.

Their expansion of the credit was a centerpiece of the plan, with Democrats proudly citing studies showing the initiative had slashed childhood poverty.

As part of a stimulus package last year, Democrats had increased the maximum credit to $3,600 per child, from $2,000; dramatically increased aid to the very poorest by dumping long-standing work rules associated with the break; and transformed the credit into a monthly payment program that sent 35 million families a portion of the credit each month.

Those provisions expired at the end of 2021, with Democrats now anxious to renew them.

"I'm committed to getting the expansion done no matter what it takes," said Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).

Sen. Joe Manchin has infuriated many of his colleagues with a series of objections to the beefed up credit.

At the same time, the West Virginia Democrat has said he could support other parts of the reconciliation package such as a phalanx of tax subsidies for renewable energy, which has some Democrats rethinking their priorities.

In interviews Thursday morning with CNN and Bloomberg Television, Deese, the director of the National Economic Council, said lawmakers could rally around those credits. He also pointed to provisions designed to reduce health care and prescription drug costs, as well as proposed limits on how much parents spend on child care, as areas of agreement.

Those are things that I think are practical, would address [family] costs and are doable, he told Bloomberg.

Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) signaled hes ready to follow Biden's lead.

The climate and clean energy provisions in Build Back Better have been largely worked through and financed, so lets start there an add any of the other important provisions to support working families that can meet the 50-vote threshold in the Senate, he said.

Manchin has three main objections to Democrats child credit plans: that his colleagues are hiding the proposals true cost by only proposing a one-year extension of the break; that Democrats ended rules requiring recipients to work; and that the break goes to families too far up the income ladder, earning up to $400,000.

Some lawmakers such as Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) would like to target the break more squarely at people with average incomes, though that would run afoul of Bidens promise not to raise taxes on people making less than $400,000.

Its actually become easier to potentially address Manchins concerns regarding the work requirements now that Democrats expansion has expired.

Thats because old rules requiring child tax recipients to have income in order to take the break are back on the books as of Jan. 1. So rather than Democrats having to take an uncomfortable vote to fully restore the requirements, they could potentially come up with a compromise that would satisfy Manchin, who has not said publicly what he'd like the work rules to look like.

Neal said hes ready to compromise, while declining to get into specifics.

Im open to some discussions about it and theres room here to negotiate, he said.

I dont understand why we cant find an accommodation which I think we will.

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Some Democrats not ready to give up on child credit - POLITICO

When they met in 2018, Illinois Gov. Jim Edgar found Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin to be a bright guy who was personable and ultimately left a favorable impression.

Irvin, who had just been elected to lead Illinois second-largest city the previous year, was participating in the Edgar Fellows program, a five-day executive training designed by the former governor to influence attitudes and foster mutual understanding among emerging Illinois leaders across partisan, ethnic and regional lines.

Irvin so impressed Edgar that he was invited back to speak on a panel of mayors to a future Edgar Fellows class.

But one impression that was not immediately clear to the former Republican governor was that Irvin, who holds a nonpartisan office, was himself a Republican.

Former Illinois Gov. Jim Edgar speaks during an event inCharleston in 2011.

I was impressed withhim, but I guess I thought he was a Democrat, Edgar told me in an interview Tuesday. And I think that's going to be probably the major challenge for him is to convince Republicans that he's a Republican. Time will tell whether thats going to happen or not.

Irvin announced his campaign for the Republican nomination for governor on Monday. He is running as part of a slate of candidates recruited by ex-staffers of former Gov. Bruce Rauner and former Sen. Mark Kirk and expected to be funded by billionaire Ken Griffin and other large donors.

Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin speaks during a news conference, Feb. 15, 2019. Mayor Irvin joined the gubernatorial fray on Monday, entering the race as a Republican challenging incumbent Democrat J.B. Pritzker.

They believe they found their man in Irvin, an Army veteran and former prosecutor who would be the states first African American governor, if elected.

However, the take on Irvin and the GOP slate that I wanted to hear most was from Edgar, who knows a thing or two about winning elections as a Republican in a blue state.

After all, he was the last Republican to be reelected to a second term as governor of Illinois. He also left office extremely popular so much so that the national party twice attempted to recruit him to run for U.S. Senate.

Edgars successor, Republican Gov. George Ryan, on the other hand, opted not to run for reelection and left office under the cloud of scandal, which eventually led to federal corruption charges and a stint in prison.

Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner was defeated by Pritzker in 2018 after four years marred by fights with legislative Democrats and a more than two-year budget impasse.

The party is now shut out of all statewide offices and is toiling away in the superminority in the General Assembly.

So, I called Edgar on Tuesday to ask for his thoughts on Irvin and the slate, which includes state Rep. Avery Bourne, R-Morrisonville, for lieutenant governor; state Rep. Tom Demmer, R-Dixon, for treasurer; lawyer Steve Kim for attorney general; former U.S. Attorney John Milhiser for secretary of state; and McHenry County Auditor Shannon Teresi for comptroller.

State Rep. Avery Bourne, R-Litchfield, speaks at Republicans Day at the Illinois State Fair on Aug. 19, 2021.

It'll be interesting to see how the party receives that, Edgar told me. But, the candidates seem like they're legitimate candidates. I mean, I think they bring something to the table and if Griffin's coming through with the money, money is really important in a primary.

If he's going to fund these campaigns, that will definitely give them a leg up, Edgar said. Now the drawback, though, is people are going to say, 'well, they're all going to be his puppet,' and they're going to have to handle that charge, particularly in the governor's race.

Irvins announcement featured a tough-on-crime message that played up his background as a prosecutor and his record on the issue as mayor of Aurora.

Ive seen it up close. Defund the police is dumb, dangerous and it costs lives. And I believe that all lives matter. Every family should be safe, Irvin said. My city is now safe, stronger and full of opportunity. I want that for Illinois.

However, Irvin has pulled Democratic primary ballots in several recent elections and is on tape praising Pritzkers pandemic response just within the past year. Its led some to question his conservative bonafides.

In a sense, Irivin is somewhat of a blank slate regardless as running a city is not inherently the most partisan endeavor. Theres no such thing as Republican potholes or Democratic streetlights.

However, this may play to his advantage in a general election, Edgar said, noting the importance of Republicans winning back moderates in the Chicago suburbs.

I do think that he would make a viable candidate if he can get past the primary in the fall, Edgar said. The fact that he seems somewhat moderate; he's well funded; he's African American, so perhaps he can pull over some African American votes, which are really the key to the Democrats in Illinois.

But the Republicans, I think, have to realize that they've got to win a lot of independents and moderate Republicans back and maybe what I call 'thoughtful Democrats.' And you can't go too far to the right to do that, Edgar continued. That's why Irvin would have a good shot because I think he will undoubtedly be perceived more in the middle than he will be to the far right.

But even if Irvin emerges from the GOP primary, it will be an uphill climb in the general election, Edgar said.

Well, I think an incumbent governor has the advantage going into an election should have the advantage unless they've been a terrible governor, Edgar said. And I don't think Pritzker has been a terrible governor. I mean, he's had some tough things to deal with, particularly the virus.

Though Pritzkers poll numbers could be better, particularly among independents, Edgar thinks he is the favorite going into this race as the incumbent and with his unlimited financial resources. But, Irvin would give Republicans a fighting chance that other candidates would not, he said.

Again, I still think Pritzker would be the favorite, but I think it would be a race," Edgar said. "Whereas some of these other primary candidates, I'm not sure that it would be viewed as a strong race at that point.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker speaks during Governor's Day at the Illinois State Fair in August.

The other Republican candidates for governor are state Sen. Darren Bailey, R-Xenia; businessman Gary Rabine; former state Sen. Paul Schmipf, R-Waterloo; and venture capitalist Jesse Sullivan.

Edgar acknowledged that it's tougher than it used to be to win as a Republican in Illinois, but it's possible, he said, if the party can win back voters in the suburbs and exurbs of Chicago who may have been turned off by Rauner and former President Donald Trump.

If Biden's numbers don't get better, even though he's not on the ballot, it still has an impact on how people vote to some extent, Edgar said. In the suburbs, particularly. The suburbs swing more than any other part of the state.

GOP governor candidate Richard Irvin heads a slate assembled to attract backing from investment firm founder Ken Griffin, the states wealthiest person.

And, even if Irvin does not win, having a moderate candidate at the top of the ballot may help suburban House and Senate candidates down ballot. And, it could allow other members of the slate an opportunity to win.

Milhiser would perhaps be in the best position as hes running for an open position.

Edgar, a former secretary of state himself, said an incumbent has a huge advantage in that office. So not having an incumbent does make it a more level playing field.

That, I think, could be a very interesting race, it could be a close race, Edgar said. And this is the chance for the Republicans to get that office. Historically that's been a good office to have It's been a good stepping stone.

Undoubtedly, the Republican Party has changed since Edgar, a pro-choice moderate, held office.

Still, hes the most successful living former Republican statewide official. At the very least, his two cents is worth listening to as Republicans decide who they may support in the June primary, which is only 160 days away.

There was perhaps no more consequential task this year than ensuring the successful rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine, which could allow a relative return to normalcy should enough residents take their shots.After an initial phased rollout, vaccines became available to all Illinoisans in mid-April.The state peaked at 167,422 shots in arms on April 9. As of Dec. 23, more than 60% of the states population is fully vaccinated, including nearly 68% of Illinoisans five or older. But hesitancy remains high in conservative portions of the state, where rates significantly lag the state as a whole. This and the emergence of new variants have kept the state from turning the page. Just this week, a single-day record for new cases was reached, which has cities like Chicago considering the implementation of proof of vaccination for entry into certain public places like bars or restaurants.

Illinois, long the poster child for fiscal irresponsibility,received its first credit rating upgrades in more than 20 years in 2021.It represents a remarkable reversal from 2017, when years of unbalanced budgets, pension holidays and ultimately going more than two years without a spending plan, placed the state just one notch above junk status. But, with a few years of relative budget stability, enhanced tax revenue and federal COVID-19 relief funds, the states fiscal picture is better than it has been in a long time. Illinois still has the lowest bond rating of any state in the country and fiscal challenges remain on the horizon, but it is worth noting some good news, for a change.

Gov. J.B. Pritzker signed legislation that amends the states sports betting law that will finally allow bets to be made on in-state college sports teams while lifting the ban on online registration starting in March 2022. The former was an annoyance, especially as the Illinois and Loyola mens basketball teams faced off in March Madness.The latter was an impediment to the continued growth of Illinois industry since the vast majority of bets are placed online.The state has a top five sports betting handle in the country, which is now expected to grow with the changes enacted.

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Edgar 'impressed' with Irvin, but initially 'thought he was a Democrat' - The Pantagraph