Archive for the ‘Democrat’ Category

A top Democrat wants to make them pay. All the executives behind defunct for-profit schools, that is. – Business Insider

A series of for-profit colleges have shut down in recent years amid accusations of fraud, mismanagement, and misleading students into taking on student debt they can't pay off. A top Democrat wants to make these schools' executives pay.

On Monday, House Education and Labor Committee Chair Bobby Scott wrote a letter to Education Secretary Miguel Cardona, urging him to hold owners, board members, and executives of now-defunct for-profit schools "individually responsible" for money the schools owe to the federal government.

"Given the substantial burden that is currently being borne by students and taxpayers when for-profit and converted for-profit institutions collapse, it is clear the Department has a responsibility to pursue any and all legal avenues available to recoup money that was allocated through financial aid programs," Scott wrote.

After major for-profit chains, notably including Corinthian Colleges and ITT Technical Institutes, shut down, students and taxpayers had to pay the closure costs not the people who ran the school.

Scott highlighted actions the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has taken, like bringing ITT to court in 2015 for deceiving investors abouthigh rates of late payment and defaults on student loan, but he noted that SEC penalties have been narrow, and the Education Department can do more given its authority under the Higher Education Act including making them pay for the debt students had to take on.

Last year, Student Defense, which advocates for students' rights, released a reportdetailing how executives can be held accountable under the Higher Education Act, and Dan Zibel, author of the report and Vice President of Student Defense, wrote on Twitter on Thursday that "too many predatory colleges have profited from fleecing students & bilking taxpayers."

Since 2015, more than 200,000 defrauded students filed claims for a complete discharge of their loans in a process known as the "borrower defense to repayment." This methodology, approved by Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, compared the median earnings of graduates with debt-relief claims to the median earnings of graduates in comparable programs. The bigger the difference, the more relief the applicant would receive.

But compared to a 99.2% approval rate for defrauded claims filed under President Barack Obama, DeVos had a 99.4% denial rate for borrowers and ran up a huge backlog of claims from eligible defrauded borrowers seeking student debt forgiveness, which is why Cardona reversed that policy to start giving borrowers defrauded by for-profit schools the relief they qualify for.

Scott's letter is the second asking the Education Department to hold for-profit education executives accountable. In October 2020, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren led five of her Democratic colleagues in pushing for the department to use all the legal tools at its disposal to hold executives of the for-profits that "defrauded students personally, financially accountable."

The lawmakers wrote the department's failure to enforce accountability "has also encouraged future lawbreaking by executives who feel confident they can enrich themselves at the expense of students and taxpayers without consequence."

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A top Democrat wants to make them pay. All the executives behind defunct for-profit schools, that is. - Business Insider

Jobs Or The Environment? Ahead Of 2022, Pennsylvania Democrats Thread Needle On ‘False Choice’ – 90.5 WESA

Megan White didnt pay close attention to politics until the day in 2015 when a representative from Sunoco came to the door of her suburban Chester County home and told her the company needed to route a new pipeline through her yard.

At the time, White and her husband were busy parents of a 1-year-old and didnt give it much thought. The representative, White recalls, told them construction would last for a year or two, and we would never know they were here.

Its a promise many of Whites neighbors also remember and one they now resent. Construction on the Mariner East pipeline project started in earnest in 2017 in Whites area. Today, half of her backyard in West Whiteland Township remains hidden behind a plywood fence, swarming with heavy equipment and construction workers just beyond behind her kids swingset and trampoline.

Its 2021, and my daughters now 7, White said. Its taken up most of her childhood.

Across Pennsylvania, debates about energy policy in the past few decades have largely centered on two issues: fracking and pipelines.

It has created a conundrum for politicians particularly for Democrats, given two key tenets of their party: protecting people and the environment from the ill effects of fossil fuels and supporting organized labor, which has thousands of workers in the commonwealths energy sector.

The debates can be symbolic. Whoever wins Pennsylvanias 2022 U.S. Senate race, for instance, probably wont have much say over the Mariner East pipeline. But for the candidates already lining up for the Democratic primaries for governor and Senate, striking the right balance on these issues could be a matter of political life or death.

All about man-hours

Often, that political calculus divides candidates between the west and the east. In Western Pennsylvania, where fracking was big business during the boom of the late aughts and 2010s, Democrats have a tendency to be more supportive of the natural gas industry. Some members of the party to the east, which has primarily experienced the energy industry though disruptive pipelines, have been less inclined to get on board.

One recent Democratic effort to increase oversight of drillers saw the State House and Senate both sponsor bills with overwhelming support from eastern Pennsylvania. In the House, 23 of the legislations 28 sponsors were from the east; in the Senate, six of the seven were.

But the divisions arent just regional. Even within the Philadelphia suburbs, clear lines have been drawn between people who see the natural gas industry, and pipelines, as a necessary boon to workers and those who think theyre a symptom of unacceptable reliance on fossil fuels.

Jim Snell is a business manager with Steamfitters Local 420, which represents workers across the eastern part of Pennsylvania, including Chester County. Theyre historically aligned with Democrats, but he sees himself, and the union, as politically pragmatic and he has a very straightforward calculus for whether he supports a politician.

Listen, everybody wants clean air, clean water, he said. But in my line of work, were all about man-hours.

Katie Meyer

The workers Snell represents are pipe experts. Their man-hours are often spent installing systems in commercial and residential construction projects, but also important, Snell says, is the energy sector. Right now, he estimates 250 of his members are working on the Mariner East project, along with hundreds of other building tradesmen and women.

Environmentalists have argued in the past that this number of by nature, temporary jobs doesnt justify the environmental impact of a pipeline. But Snell notes the Mariner East delivers natural gas liquids to the Marcus Hook Industrial Complex in Delaware County for distribution. He says hes expecting even more jobs in the complex once the pipeline is fully finished though he doesnt give details.

Theres bountiful work coming, he said. Im going to have hundreds of steamfitters working at this site. The Philadelphia building trades as a whole will have a few thousand working at this site.

Snell and the building trades have a lot of powerful company on this side of the energy debate. Since Pennsylvanias fracking boom began, corporations that profit from the industry have spent tens of millions of dollars lobbying state politicians or contributing to their campaigns. Labor, particularly the building trades, has also allied itself with chambers of commerce and developers in the effort to promote and defend pipeline projects.

Kurt Knaus, spokesman for the pro-pipeline group Pennsylvania Energy Infrastructure Alliance, says the coalition agrees, as a matter of principle, that climate change is real and that the commonwealth must eventually transition away from natural gas, but he thinks fracking and pipeline opponents are being unreasonable.

The transition isnt going to happen by simply flipping a switch, he said. Theres a practical matter, in that most people who work in energy recognize the need for all forms of energy. But the other side, they seem to simply refuse that theres still a tremendous need for these traditional energy resources.

Many pipelines do carry natural gas used for energy. But the natural gas liquids in the Mariner East lines are shipped overseas and are used to manufacture plastics.

David Masur, who heads the environmentalist group PennEnvironment, says Knaus argument is a cop-out.

If my kid said something like that, going like, I know I shouldnt eat Ding Dongs all day, but I dont know what else to eat somebodys got to call BS, he said.

Masur believes there are things Pennsylvania can and should be doing now to begin that transition away from fossil fuels like creating clear milestones for the percentage of energy that should come from clean sources, and putting a higher tax burden on polluting industries. If Pennsylvania does those things, he thinks, jobs in cleaner industries will follow.

He doesnt like to blame labor too much for what he sees as a lack of action but he does think the building trades alliances with the gas industry have hamstrung Democrats.

Theyre probably some of the biggest reasons why we cant pass climate policy today, Masur said. Thats a reality in Harrisburg. It becomes a reality in D.C. because they can peel off a whole set of Democrats who, often, side with the bulk of the Republican caucus.

The pipeline to political awakening

In Chester County, at least some of the people who, thanks to the pipes running through their backyards, have found themselves deeply involved in Pennsylvanias energy debate have come to see the issue as revealing larger problems in government.

The entire length of the Mariner East project has seen drilling mud spills, which can damage streams and wetlands, and the sections that run through dense residential areas in the southeast have been plagued by disruptive sinkholes, thanks to the porous limestone, known as karst, on which the region sits.

Energy Transfer, which now owns Sunoco and manages the project, has racked up millions of dollars in financial penalties for Mariner-related violations alone, and the state Department of Environmental Protection shut down the project completely for permit violations in 2018. Sinkholes related to the project became so bad on one Chester County street, Lisa Drive, that several properties became unsafe, homeowners were displaced, and the company had to buy the houses.

The new lines, and the sinkholes that come with them, are also directly next to 1930s-era pipes that still carry explosive natural gas liquids. For Ginny Marcille-Kerslake, who lives in West Whiteland and has had pipeline construction on and around her property for the last several years, thats the scariest part.

Its not just a sinkhole, she said. Its a sinkhole thats happening in close proximity to these two 90-year-old pipelines that are transporting these highly explosive products.

Katie Meyer

Jessica DeLeandro, who lives down the street from the White family and has construction in her own yard, says that possibility haunts her.

I have two children, which is very nerve-wracking, DeLeandro said. Every morning when I leave for work, now that they are not in school, the anxiety is I cant even describe, God forbid there was an emergency.

Theres a basis for these fears. Explosions in natural gas pipelines can and do happen. In 2018, a different pipeline in rural Western Pennsylvania, the then-newly installed Revolution line, which was carrying a mix of hydrocarbons including methane, ethane and butane, exploded after a landslide. One family was forced to flee for their lives, and their house was left in ruins.

The Mariner East pipeline runs through much more densely populated areas in Southeastern Pennsylvania. Along with residential neighborhoods, its close to a school and a public library.

DeLeandro describes herself as politically nonpartisan Im an American, she said when asked to describe her affiliation but says her experience has spurred her to support stricter regulation of the energy industry. Her biggest political ask now is accountability.

Megan White also considers herself fairly politically neutral, if left-leaning. But like DeLeandro, her up-close view of the pipeline has given her a lasting distrust toward politicians who she sees as soft on natural gas companies like Energy Transfer.

Its just big money, she said. They buy their way through, they just keep throwing money around, and us little people just have to deal with stuff like this.

For Kerslake, its been a true political awakening.

She had worked for years as a soil analyst in her native Canada, and says when Sunoco first knocked on her door in 2015, it felt natural to throw herself into learning about natural gas liquids, pipelines, and problems that can come with them. Less expected, she said, was the political aspect.

That was the huge wake-up call, she said. Once you realize that, and you realize our government has allowed that to happen, then it just blows everything up for you.

Kerslake ran for the State House in 2020. She was up against a party-endorsed Democrat and lost in the primary, but says the experience hasnt dampened her desire to hold energy companies accountable. She founded the group West Whiteland Residents for Pipeline Safety, and now works as an organizer for the national group Food and Water Watch. She also works closely with a fellow pipeline activist from a neighboring district who did get elected to the House Danielle Friel-Otten.

Otten, a Democrat, is now about two years into her tenure representing Chester Countys 155th Legislative District.

She has tangled with energy companies, and with labor, many times during her time in office. But now, shes quick to note that her gripe is not with workers. My dad was a teamster, my brothers are union guys, she said. My one brother is a steamfitter.

The problem, as she sees it, is just the enormous power oil and gas companies have in Pennsylvania. She doesnt think that will go away quickly, but she is encouraged by new action on the federal level, like components of thenewly passed infrastructure package aimed at modernizing the electrical grid to use cleaner energy sources, and cleaning up Superfund sites.

I have a lot of hope at the federal level, she said. In the state you look up at the ceiling [in the Capitol] and its paintings of coal and oil wells. I know that its a hard fight.

The happiest medium

This is the terrain Democratic candidates for Pennsylvania political office now have to navigate.

In the 2022 U.S. Senate race, all the major contenders for the Democratic nomination have begun staking out positions on fracking, pipelines, and how the country should respond to climate change. And despite some differences in tone and specifics, all have attempted to split the difference between supporting union energy jobs and getting rid of fossil fuels.

One of the most outspoken candidates on energy has been John Fetterman, the current lieutenant governor and former mayor of Braddock, in Allegheny County.

Its a total false choice that we have to choose between jobs and a clean environment, a spokesman for Fetterman said in an email. Thats just not true. We can have both, thats why John is always going to fight for creating thousands upon thousands of green, good-paying union jobs as we transition.

He added that Fetterman has never taken a dime from the fossil fuel industry, and he never will, and believes climate change is an existential threat, but believes we also have to preserve the union way of life for the thousands of workers currently employed by the natural gas industry in Pennsylvania and the communities where they live. We cant just abandon these people, and tell them to go learn how to code.

Fetterman is progressive along with preserving union jobs while transitioning to clean energy, he has centered marijuana legalization and criminal justice reform in his campaign. But on energy, his tone skews toward that of U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb, a more moderate Senate candidate who also is from Allegheny County.

Lamb, a second-term congressman elected in an area that former President Donald Trump dominated, has been heavily involved in the Biden administrations efforts to bridge party divides on energy. He helped author Democrats unity energy platform last year, which sought to align the disparate interests of labor, environmentalists, and the energy industry, and told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette during the rollout of that plan that natural gas is here, its not going anywhere.

He has rejected progressive environmental efforts like the Green New Deal, which aims to phase out fossil fuels on a much faster timeline.

We understand, for many industrial processes, fossil fuels are going to be a critical component for years to come, Lamb told the Post-Gazette. Theres no escaping that.

Candidates from the eastern part of the state have, in general, been less friendly to the gas industry. State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, a contender from Philadelphia, is the only major Senate candidate to have said he will support a moratorium on fracking.

A spokesperson says Kenyatta backs a complete end to tax breaks for oil and gas giants but that, like Fetterman and Lamb, he thinks an equal priority has to be having dignified jobs that can support workers and their families in clean energy ready to replace jobs in the fossil fuel industry.

Val Arkoosh, a physician and Montgomery County Commissioner who, like Kenyatta, has a base of support thats geographically far from fracking, also opted for a middle road.

A spokesperson says she wants to protect air and water, and supports investments in renewable energy sources to create sustainable, good-paying, union jobs, while ensuring workers can train for the jobs of the future and feed their families.

In the gubernatorial race, Attorney General Josh Shapiro appears to be the only major contender for the Democratic nomination.

He hasnt officially announced his candidacy yet or released policy positions, but over the course of his AG tenure Shapiro has periodically taken the natural gas industry to task most significantly, in a sweeping grand jury report last year that accused the Department of Environmental Protection of failing to properly regulate fracking, and said the lucrative but often destructive enterprise had negative effects on Pennsylvanians health.

There are still many months until the election. Megan White, the West Whiteland homeowner with construction workers in her backyard, says she still doesnt know who shell end up supporting for governor or U.S. Senate.

But she does know what she wants to hear from a candidate: That theyre here for the people. That theyll do whats right. That theyll protect us.

Right now, she said, I dont feel protected. I dont feel that anyone cares.

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Jobs Or The Environment? Ahead Of 2022, Pennsylvania Democrats Thread Needle On 'False Choice' - 90.5 WESA

House Democrats Introduce John Lewis Voting Rights Legislation – The New York Times

Democrats on Tuesday unveiled a long-awaited linchpin of their drive to protect voting rights, introducing legislation that would make it easier for the federal government to block state election rules found to be discriminatory to nonwhite voters.

House leaders expect to pass the bill, named the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act after the late civil rights icon, during a rare August session next week. They say it would restore the full force of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 after a pair of adverse Supreme Court rulings and that it would help combat a wave of restrictive new election laws in Republican-led states.

Today, old battles have become new again as we face the most pernicious assault on the right to vote in generations, said Representative Terri Sewell, the bills chief author and a Democrat from Alabamas civil rights belt, where Mr. Lewis and others staged a national campaign for voting rights in the 1960s. Its clear: federal oversight is urgently needed.

But like other voting rights legislation to come before Congress this year, its chances of passing the evenly divided Senate are exceedingly narrow. Only one Republican, Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, is likely to support the legislation, leaving Democrats far short of the 60 votes they would need to break a Republican filibuster and send the bill to President Bidens desk.

Senate Republicans already blocked Democrats other marquee voting rights bill, the For the People Act, which would establish national mandates for early and mail-in voting and end gerrymandering of congressional districts. And while Democratic leaders in the Senate have vowed more votes on the matter in September, unless all 50 Democrats unite in a long-shot bid to change Senate filibuster rules, they are headed for an identical outcome.

The legislation introduced by Ms. Sewell on Tuesday is an effort to restore key pieces of the landmark 1965 voting bill struck down or weakened by the Supreme Court over the last decade. Doing so, its proponents say, would make it far harder for states to restrict voting access in the future.

The most consequential ruling dates to 2013, when the justices effectively invalidated a section of the law that required states and localities with a history of discriminatory voting rules to clear any changes to their elections policies with the federal government. At the time, the justices said that the formula used to determine which states were subject to clearance was out of date and invited Congress to update it.

The bill also attempts to respond to a decision just last month in Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee that effectively made it more difficult to challenge state voting laws as discriminatory in court using a different provision of the law.

Voting rights activists fear the two decisions will make it far easier for those in power to marginalize voters of color at the ballot box and during the once-in-a-decade redistricting process underway this year. Just this year, more than a dozen Republican-led states have enacted restrictive new voting laws.

We have seen an upsurge in changes to voting laws that make it more difficult for minority citizens to vote and that is even before we confront a round of decennial redistricting where jurisdictions may draw new maps that have the purpose or effect of diluting or retrogressing minority voting strength, Kristen Clarke, the assistant attorney general for civil rights, told a House panel on Monday.

Republicans joined Democrats in large numbers to reauthorize the full Voting Rights Act as recently as 2006. But since the high courts 2013 decision, they have shown little interest in updating the statute, arguing that discrimination is largely a thing of the past and that the federal government ought to stay out of states rights to set their own election rules.

Asked about the bill on Tuesday, Russell Dye, a spokesman for Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio, the top Republican on the House Judiciary Committee, accused Democrats of ignoring real problems like the crisis of Afghanistan, the influx of migrants at the southern border and rising crime in favor of pushing a radical far-left political agenda.

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House Democrats Introduce John Lewis Voting Rights Legislation - The New York Times

I’m a Democrat Who Opposed the Withdrawal. This Catastrophe Is Why. – Foreign Policy

During a hearing of the U.S. House Armed Services Committee about Afghanistan in May, I asked a senior Defense Department official if the U.S. military would return if the Afghan government asked the United States for help. The official replied: I am reluctant to get into a hypothetical. My committee colleagues asked several thoughtful questions about Afghanistans future during the proceedings. We all got the same answer.

Shortly thereafter, I joined 10 other members of Congress in writing a letter to President Joe Biden outlining recommendations for improving stability in Afghanistan in light of the decision to withdraw. We never received a reply from the White House.

During a hearing of the U.S. House Armed Services Committee about Afghanistan in May, I asked a senior Defense Department official if the U.S. military would return if the Afghan government asked the United States for help. The official replied: I am reluctant to get into a hypothetical. My committee colleagues asked several thoughtful questions about Afghanistans future during the proceedings. We all got the same answer.

Shortly thereafter, I joined 10 other members of Congress in writing a letter to President Joe Biden outlining recommendations for improving stability in Afghanistan in light of the decision to withdraw. We never received a reply from the White House.

I suppose we are now experiencing the consequences of not getting into a hypothetical. Public executions and forced marriages are reportedly back. People are fleeing. The Taliban are in Kabul, and the government has fallen. This is a catastrophe.

This negligence was par for the course for the last U.S. administration. I am disappointed to see it now. At minimum, the Biden administration owed our Afghan allies of 20 years a real plan. They also owed it to our military service members and their families, particularly the men and women in uniform and their families who gave the ultimate sacrifice. Not to mention the women and girls of Afghanistan who are now experiencing a devastating new reality.

During my time in Congress, I have seen attention on Afghanistan wax and wane. Before the United States collectively moves on, I want to explore where we go from here.

To start, we need to remind ourselves why we were in Afghanistan in the first place: to dismantle al Qaeda and their enablers, deny them a safe haven, and stop them from plotting and planning against the United States. The Taliban offered a safe haven to extremist groups in the past. With the Taliban having taken Kabul, it is only a matter of time before Afghanistan turns into another extremist haven.

While U.S. troops were protecting the homeland from another attack, they fought for human rights, stymied the Talibans repressive ideology that the vast majority of Afghans do not want, and prevented a humanitarian catastrophe. Had they remained longer, they also would have ensured a safe exit for interpreters, journalists, and activists, many of whom may never get out.

The United States also risks ceding influence to Russia and China. China could forge a partnership with the Taliban to complete its genocide of Uyghur Muslims. Pakistani officials are celebrating the victory of their preferred strain of extremism, and some of Irans militias have marched back from Syria into Afghanistan.

Given the current situation, U.S. diplomats must refocus on what will bring the Taliban to the negotiating table and on providing options to Biden for conducting airstrikes, withholding foreign aid, or putting boots back on the ground. If extremist groups like al Qaeda are reconstituting or committing atrocities, we are returning to Afghanistan.

In the future, we must take extra care to establish and monitor development assistance programs so they are as effective as possible. Before last week, government watchdogs frequently reported rampant fraud and waste in Afghanistan. U.S. taxpayers financed schools that were not built and roads that were never repaired. We donated equipment that the Afghan military did not need. Now, the Taliban have stolen that equipment and munitions, and they are stronger for it. Economic and security assistance should never be an afterthought.

Finally, regional engagement. Central Asia is not exactly a hot-ticket destination for diplomats, but we need these dedicated public servants to lay the groundwork for the U.S. military to use existing bases from which to conduct potential airstrikes. We will also need partnerships for intelligence missions, a place to establish a consulate if the embassy in Kabul remains closed, and a plan for resettling the surge of refugees.

We must also persuade Afghanistans neighbors to not fund their preferred factions within the country. We must hold this lineor Afghanistan will collapse. We need a strategy that prioritizes our diplomatic, development, and defense objectives so that we can condition regional foreign aid in pursuit of degrading al Qaeda and ensuring Afghanistans stability.

The administration has addressed some of the challenges with the Special Immigrant Visas for Afghans, but we need to increase our efforts hundredfold. We should also reflect on what our service members have done in the past 20 years. There has not been another major attack on U.S. soil. Al Qaeda is not thriving in Afghanistan, as it once was. Until last week, 50 percent of the American University of Afghanistans students were women. That would not have been possible without us. Sadly, at another university in Herat, female students have reportedly been banned from campus already.

Critics may say the past few months were an indictment of our ability to train the Afghan military. I would say instead: Look at what 2,500 U.S. soldiers, intelligence, and air support working with the Afghan military were able to hold back for so many years. The consequences of our decision to abandon Afghanistan are now on full display for the world to see. It didnt have to be this way.

I pray for all U.S. troops and personnel. We must spare no cost to ensure their safe return home.

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I'm a Democrat Who Opposed the Withdrawal. This Catastrophe Is Why. - Foreign Policy

This 29-year-old YouTube millionaire has a good chance to be the next governor of California – CNBC

Kevin Paffrath, Kevin Paffrath smiles for a selfie in front of the California State Capitol in Sacramento on Friday, July 16, 2021.

Kevin Paffrath via AP

Last year at this time, Kevin Paffrath was focused on his YouTube channel, where his half-million-plus followers could tune in for daily commentary on housing, stocks and stimulus checks. It earned him nearly $10 million over the last 12 months.

Now, the 29-year-old former real estate broker is following Gov. Gavin Newsom around his home state. It's the best way he can think of to draw attention to his unlikely effort to replace Newsom in the upcoming recall election on Sept. 14.

Paffrath is a registered Democrat and self-declared centrist who voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. While he's highly critical of Newsom and says he's been a "failed leader," Paffrath is equally concerned that the Democratic Party has no emergency plan.

Should more than half of California voters support the recall on their ballots, the next governor would be whichever of the 46 successor candidates gets the most votes, making it much easier for an outsider to win. Paffrath is one of the nine candidates listed as a Democrat, but party leaders are urging a "No" vote to the recall effort and saying voters should skip the second question asking who should be governor if the recall succeeds.

"It was mind-blowing to us that they didn't put at least somebody in, so that way, worst case, they had a hail mary," Paffrath said in an interview on Friday over a coffee, after attending a Newsom press event in San Francisco.

In an early August poll by Survey USA, Paffrath had the most votes in the field of replacements, with 27%. The next six candidates are all Republicans, including conservative talk show host Larry Elder and reality TV star and former Olympic athlete Caitlyn Jenner.

"We think in the last two weeks of this campaign if the recall looks more and more likely, the Democratic party will be forced to pick a Hail Mary back-up candidate," Paffrath said. "Given that we're No. 1 in the polls, we hope that's us."

California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks with media at a long-standing encampment along Highway 80 in Berkeley, California, August 9, 2021.

John G. Mabanglo | Pool | Reuters

Democrats are right to be nervous.

A poll conducted by the University of California, Berkeley, and the Los Angeles Times in late July showed 51% of registered voters opposed the recall, with 36% in favor. But among likely voters, the gap favoring Newsom's retention narrowed to three percentage points.

The anti-recall movement has raised about $51 million, almost eight times as much as the side trying to oust Newsom. Netflix CEO Reed Hastings has contributed $3 million in support of the governor.

Donors can contribute an unlimited amount for or against the recall, but only up to $32,400 in support of any specific replacement candidate. Paffrath said he's raised close to $400,000 and has put in about $200,000 of his own money. The average donation is $70, he said.

"We don't have the war chest that Newsom does, so we have to do everything in our power with grassroots and social media," Paffrath said.

For example, Paffrath paid his brother-in-law, an app developer, to build his "Meet Kevin" app. And he's trying to get in front of the media as much as possible. Most of his ad spending is via text message to let voters know there's a Democratic alternative.

On Friday, Paffrath hung out outside Manny's restaurant in San Francisco as Newsom spoke inside to the press. Dressed in a navy suit with a purple tie, Paffrath made himself easy to spot for reporters. He said he's careful not to be disruptive at the events.

"We have to combat, this 'Oh yeah he's a YouTuber, he's a prankster,'" Paffrath said. "We stand there very respectfully and reporters recognize us. They talk to us."

From San Francisco, he's following Newsom to Los Angeles and San Diego, and possibly beyond.

The recall effort picked up momentum during the pandemic as frustration mounted about the state's shutdown of schools and small businesses, and the slow pace of the reopening even as Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations plummeted.

Newsom critics pounced at the opportunity to highlight the worsening homeless problem and increasing crime rates while taxes and living costs remained among the highest in the country. Paffrath said he wasn't an initial proponent of the recall and didn't get involved until it was well underway.

"The reason I think folks are frustrated is we pay our taxes, then we look up to see what our government is doing for us with the services we're paying for," he said. "And we see people dying on the street. We see blight. That's why people are leaving."

Paffrath, who lives with his wife and two young sons in Ventura, about 70 miles from Los Angeles, has made addressing the homeless issue his top agenda item. His proposal is to build new emergency facilities and lease commercial and office buildings, including many that have been vacated during the pandemic, to set up mass spaces with cots and small rooms, supported by staffing from the National Guard.

His aim is to get all of California's 160,000 homeless people off the streets in 60 days at an eventual cost of $10 per person per day, covering food, medical support and bathrooms.

Paffrath has equally ambitious some may say outlandish goals for new types of "future" schools, a system of underground tunnels to alleviate traffic problems and the building of Las Vegas-style casinos as part of a plan to fully legalize gambling.

He also recognizes the existential threat posed by fires and droughts. He advocates spending on controlled burns and a pipeline from the Mississippi River to double water flow to the Colorado River. When it comes to solar plants, he wants to incentivize companies to stay in California rather than going elsewhere.

"I'm tired of hearing about Tesla building solar panels in New York and Nevada," he said. "Those should be in California."

Paffrath's fans are used to hearing him opine on such matters. He now has almost 150,000 Twitter followers and 1.7 million on YouTube. Regular topics include interest rates, the crypto economy and politics.

Paffrath got his start in real estate a little over a decade ago by teaching people how to invest in the market. He became a broker and started buying property, then took his teaching experience and market knowledge to YouTube. By 2018 was making enough money a couple thousand dollars a day to let his broker license expire and to get out of sales.

At the coffee shop on Friday, he pulled out his phone and navigated to his YouTube earnings dashboard. Over the past year, the page showed, his ad revenue on the site topped $3.5 million. Affiliate revenue and money he makes from courses on building wealth brought in an additional $6 million or so, he said.

Kevin Paffrath on the campaign trail

Ari Levy | CNBC

But his focus now is on politics. Paffrath said he'll run in 2022 even the recall is unsuccessful or if another replacement candidate wins. That's as far out as he's projecting.

"I don't want to be a career politician," he said. "I want to fix California."

He also wants to assure Democrats that he's not just using their party label because it gives him the best chance to win. With a legislature that's three-quarters Democratic, he said it's important to start on things that the majority cares deeply about, like the homeless problem.

Control of the U.S. Senate could also be at stake. Dianne Feinstein, the state's senior senator, is the oldest member of the chamber at 88. She's not up for reelection until 2024, and questions have been swirling around whether she'll retire before then.

If so, the governor would get to pick her temporary successor. The Senate is currently at a 50-50 split, with Vice President Kamala Harris in position to cast deciding votes when needed.

Paffrath made it clear he would pick a Democrat.

"I'm not going to burn the party," he said. "I don't want people to think that just because I'm a recall candidate I'm going to go in there and do what Republicans say they want to do, start cutting things and throwing around the furniture. It's not going to work. You've got to respect the legislature."

WATCH: California Gov. Newsom faces recall

Link:
This 29-year-old YouTube millionaire has a good chance to be the next governor of California - CNBC