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POLITICOs James Arkin breaks down why the 2022 Ohio Senate race will be a bellwether of Rust Belt politics in the post-Trump era.

But they see the outcome of the trial, which begins on Tuesday, as a reflection of Trumps viability and influence in the GOP moving forward. And they believe a conviction, which would require the support of at least 17 Republican senators, would simply embolden Trump and enrage his base in a way that hurts the party in 2022 and 2024.

He does a pretty good job of being a victim, a GOP senator, who requested anonymity to candidly address the internal party dynamic, said of Trump. If he were to be convicted, there would be an uproar among his supporters. And it would probably energize them.

Ahead of the trial, Republicans are predicting that no more than a handful of GOP senators will join Democrats in voting to convict Trump, especially after 45 out of the 50 Republicans in the chamber voted last month to declare that the Senate has no jurisdiction over a former president.

Trumps allies are already dreading the trial, though, fearful that a public discussion of the events of Jan. 6 in which a pro-Trump mob stormed the Capitol after the then-president rallied with them at the White House could damage Trump long-term. GOP senators acknowledged those risks for Trump, even as the trial is shaping up to be a referendum on his standing in the party.

Its going to be aired as publicly as it can be, and its based upon recent events, Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) said. So I think how he comes out of it, how he rebuilds, Im not sure where that goes. Thats going to be up to him.

To Democrats, an elevated retelling of the events of Jan. 6 is the next-best option to further ostracize Trump given that a conviction is highly unlikely. While Senate leaders are still haggling over the trials parameters, the House impeachment managers will likely be permitted to use videos and other visuals to make their case a serious advantage for Democrats given that much of their case relies on Trumps public statements and other available footage from the riots at the Capitol.

One of the most powerful reasons for a trial here is the public airing of Donald Trumps really heinous criminal wrongdoing and his criminal intent, said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), a former prosecutor and state attorney general. A trial airs a tableau of evidence and proof that can change the way people think about the individual who is on trial. Even when someone is acquitted, they may still be haunted by the facts that come to light at a trial.

Republicans have already signaled their uneasiness with Trumps lawyers, who in an initial filing last week advanced the former presidents unsubstantiated claims that the election was stolen from him. There is widespread concern among Republicans that the arguments on the Senate floor will turn into a re-litigation of Trumps false allegations of election fraud a discussion that GOP senators arent interested in having, as most of them try to move past Trump.

I think this trial will tell us about what the GOP wants to be going forward, added Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). Donald Trump did not just drop out of the sky. Everything that he represents has its roots in earlier iterations of the Republican Party.

With expectations already set, Democrats are already telegraphing a shortened trial that punts on the question of whether to subpoena witnesses, with many in the party worried that this weeks exercise will distract from President Joe Bidens legislative and governing agenda, especially if its elongated by new witness testimony.

Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), perhaps Bidens closest confidant in the Senate, said that during his hour-long meeting with the president last week, We did not talk about impeachment. Biden, Coons said, is relentlessly focused on delivering coronavirus relief to Americans, as well as countering China and Russia.

Coons was one of a few Democratic senators who balked at the idea of the House impeachment managers seeking to call Trump in as a witness for the trial, calling it a terrible idea. The Delaware Democrat, like many others in the party, is eager to get the trial in the Senates rear-view mirror.

Republicans, too, want to get through the trial as quickly and painlessly as possible. Apart from arguing that the proceedings are unconstitutional, they have not mounted a substantive defense of Trumps actions. Many of them have already publicly said they believe Trumps rhetoric was reckless and irresponsible.

Focusing on a procedural defense, though, allows Republicans to defend the most popular figure in their party without having to justify the alleged conduct at the heart of the Houses impeachment case.

I think most of the focus is going to be on the constitutionality and the precedent set by trying a former officeholder, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said.

Other Republican senators have tried to appeal directly to Bidens desire to work on legislation that has a tangible impact on Americans reeling from the pandemic and sluggish economy rather than pursuing what they view as an attempt at partisan retribution against a former president whose influence can target those who vote to convict him.

The whole thing is stupid, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) said. I know this: Nothing we do next week on that floor is going to help people get vaccines or more people keep their jobs. We should be focused on that instead.

Of course, not all Republicans want Trump to fade into the background. Several GOP senators have directly benefited politically from Trumps backing, and see little or no downside if Trumps wing of the party prevails in the coming years.

In fact, some of their political fortunes are dependent on Trumps continued involvement in the party, especially given his outsized impact on turnout among the GOP base. And many of those same Republicans worry that some of Trumps voters might not turn out when he isnt on the ballot.

I think this idea that congressional Republicans secretly hate Trump is a partial fiction, said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). I think a lot of them have done very well by him and his movement, and are not looking forward to him disappearing.

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Where Democrats and Republicans agree on Trump - POLITICO

Like McCain, the moonshine-swigging former quarterback isnt afraid to let his colleagues know where he stands on a given day, either in the hallways of the Capitol or on cable news airwaves. Manchin often publicly discusses how hes struggling with issues or tough votes. In a nod to his state, he lives on a boat while in D.C. named Almost Heaven.

Hes kind of the Democratic version of John McCain. I say that partially in jest. But partially its true: Joes a hard guy to figure out how to lead. You know? He dances to his own music.

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.)

Senators say following Manchins appearances on cable news or in papers is just as important as following the remarks of Senate leaders to understand where things are going.

Joe loves to be in the middle of the action. And if youre unsure about what hes thinking in that moment, just turn on any TV set and there he is, said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, Manchins Republican counterpart from West Virginia.

Making known his dissension from Democratic Party orthodoxy is essential to Manchins political survival in a state former President Donald Trump won twice, by roughly 40 points. And though he has long sought to be an essential Senate moderate, he has found mostly frustration during his 10 years as a senator, eventually declaring of the hallowed chamber: This place sucks.

He chafed at the leadership style of former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), then found things little better under GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), finding both leaders unwilling to accommodate his style of politics. Trump mostly ignored Manchins entreaties of cooperation, and Manchin had little in common with President Barack Obama, famously shooting a hole through Obamas climate plan in a 2010 ad.

These days, Manchin couldnt be in a better spot. His ally Chuck Schumer is now majority leader and Joe Biden is president after running as a uniter. They need his support on just about everything, and Manchin has spoken to Biden several times in the past week alone.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, flanked by Sens. Joe Manchin, Bob Casey and Heidi Heitkamp, speaks to the media. | Aaron P. Bernstein/Getty Images

In a recent conversation recalled by Manchin, Biden explained what he went through trying to convince Republicans to come on board with the Affordable Care Act in 2009, only to be jilted after months of talks.

Joe, I dont have time to do that again, Biden told Manchin.

Manchin replied: I respect that Mr. President, I really do.

This time around, Democrats are itching to brush aside what they see as unserious Republican offers to compromise, and use tools like budget reconciliation to pass more expansive, progressive bills with only a simple majority. Manchin is also bolstered politically by a GOP governor pushing for a large aid package.

But there are major limits to what Manchin, who sits in the seat once occupied by arch-institutionalist Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.), is willing to do. Budget reconciliation is constrained by a rule named for Byrd, and though Democrats could overrule those restraints, Manchin says he will not. And even if that process allows the minimum wage increase Democrats hope for no foregone conclusion Manchin said he will only agree to increasing it to $11 an hour.

I was more than willing to do [vote for the budget] to help the president the way he believes he has to with the urgency of the pandemic, Manchin said. But he knows Im going to do everything I can to make it bipartisan and I will protect the Byrd Rule at all costs.

Manchin, along with Tester, are probably the only two Democrats that can win a seat in their states in the current political climate. Manchin mulled retirement or running for his old job as governor, but in 2018 ran for re-election and narrowly prevailed -- in part for his support for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

Because of that dynamic, Manchin gets a wide berth from Democrats when it comes to his voting record. The United States doesnt have royalty, but Manchin is pretty close to the lord of the Senate at this moment now that hes the deciding vote.

Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) greeted him this month as your highness, a moniker that makes Manchin a bit sheepish.

They just kid around. None of that does anything for me. Its just a little friendly chit-chat back and forth, Manchin said. I didnt lobby for this position, I didnt pick it.

Compared to most Democrats, Manchin is a fiscal conservative, often votes with the GOP on abortion legislation but has tried to cut deals on everything from immigration to gun background checks. Hes found more success lately on coronavirus aid than past endeavors, and is already pushing Bidens package in a more moderate direction.

The Senate is already taking cues from Manchin, approving his amendment with Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) 99-1. Manchin famously endorsed Collins in her 2020 battle for reelection, which burnished both of their bipartisan credentials.

Sen. Susan Collins talks to Sen. Joe Manchin as Sen. Jeff Flake looks on during a news conference. | Alex Wong/Getty Images

But she says her friend is about to have the weight of the Democratic Party bearing down on him.

My experience with Joe is hes a person you can count on. And if he gives you a commitment he keeps it, Collins said. It cant be easy for him to be in a caucus where the leader is putting enormous pressure on all of its members to toe the party line regardless of the merits.

As far as his relationship with Schumer goes, Manchin praises the New York Democrat but bristles at the notion he can be whipped in line.

Schumer has never come to me and said: Joe this is a party-line vote, weve gotta have you. He understands me well enough. And thats what I respect. We get along great, Manchin said.

During the Senates recent marathon voting series, it was obvious why Manchins vote is so tantalizing to Republicans. He was the deciding vote on several amendments, siding with the 50 GOP senators on protecting federal funds for houses of worship and pushing back against an Obama-era water regulation.

And perhaps the most important major issue where Manchin will side with the GOP is on the minimum wage. He simply seems immovable on his opposition to a $15 national hourly rate.

I would amend it to $11. You know that. Because I think thats basically a base that we should have in America right now, Manchin said, explaining that he would raise the wage up from $7.25 over two years. It gets people who work 40 hours at least over the poverty guidelines. The states that have $15, already have it. Thats great.

Tester and centrist Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) will also be central decision-makers to Democrats priorities on immigration, health care and spending issues. But even among that group, Manchin stands out.

Whos the most likely maybe to vote with Republicans? I would say Joe, said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.).

Put it all together, and its almost hard to imagine a legislator having that much sway over the priorities of a party that controls the Senate, House and White House. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said simply: He is the man.

Manchin was with his party over the past week when it mattered though: He voted against GOP efforts to withhold funding to schools with vaccinated teachers that arent reopening, spurned a Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) effort to make it harder to expand the Supreme Court and sided against Sen. Marco Rubios (R-Fla.) effort to crack down on Bidens catch-and-release immigration policies. And then he voted to approve the budget and move forward Bidens agenda, for now at least.

Sen. Joe Manchin questions President Joe Biden's nominee for Secretary of Defense. | Greg Nash-Pool/Getty Images

Votes like those show that despite his reputation, Manchin will side with Democrats more often than not. And thats likely to be the difference-maker that Biden needs to get his agenda through over the next two years.

After a decade of exasperation, Manchin finally has the chance to shape legislation in his own aisle-crossing image. But it hasnt changed Manchins opinion of the Senate: It still sucks.

That hasnt changed, he said as he walked through the Capitols basement toward the Senate floor. He was immediately swarmed by reporters, asking for his view on the days news.

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The Democratic version of John McCain - POLITICO

Former President Donald Trump reportedly wants to form a new political party. For the first time in my sentient life, I say: Proceed, Mr. Trump. As he may or may not know, what he would almost certainly accomplish is to ensure that Democrats held the White House and the House of Representatives for as long as his party existed.

As many Americans already know, third parties dont really work in the United States. Mr. Trumps effort brings most readily to mind Theodore Roosevelts effort to re-seek the presidency in 1912, under the banner of his newly formed Progressive Party, better known to us as the Bull Moose Party. Roosevelt was furious with his protg and successor, President William Howard Taft, who had strayed from Roosevelts reform agenda. He and his people formed their party and split the Republican vote enough that the Democrat, Woodrow Wilson, won the White House, with about 42 percent of the vote.

So people know they dont work, but not many people know exactly why they dont work. At bottom, it has to do with the way we elect our House of Representatives. We use a system variously called winner-take-all, single-member district or first-past-the-post. It means that states are divided into congressional districts, and each district is represented by one person.

To Americans, this seems as natural as the sun rising in the east. But other countries do things differently. According to the nonprofit group Fair Vote, 90 democratic countries use multimember districts, 54 use single-member districts like ours and 38 use a hybrid.

Maurice Duverger, a French political scientist of the mid-20th century, gave the best explanation for why this matters. In 1951, he wrote an enormous book called Political Parties, in which he surveyed political parties across the world (including those in Communist countries). Out of that work emerged Duvergers Law, which holds that single-member districts tend to produce two-party systems. Duverger wrote that of all the hypotheses in his book, this one approaches the most nearly perhaps to a true sociological law.

Lets say six candidates representing six different parties are running in a winner-take-all legislative district. Parties A, C and E are on the left, and parties B, D and F are on the right. Lets say candidates from A and B lead the way, while candidates from C and D trail somewhat, and candidates from E and F lag behind badly.

After a couple of elections in which their candidates finish dead last, the party leaders from E and F will realize they cant win. Theyll go to the party leaders of A and B and say something like: Look, we disagree on some things, but if you adopt X from our platform, well throw our support to you, because at least we have in common that we hate the other guy.

So E and F will disappear. In time, C and D will come to the same conclusion and cut the same deal. The single-member district will have winnowed six down to two. This doesnt happen in proportional representation systems, where all six parties can get seats in proportion to their share of the vote. But it does happen in winner-take-all systems like ours.

Weve had third parties over the years, and sometimes, at moments of great instability like the 1850s, fourth and fifth and sixth parties. But they dont last. The reason for that is the remorseless logic and inevitable direction of Duvergers Law. Lets say Mr. Trumps Patriot Party or whatever he calls it, since there might be legal issues with that name runs congressional candidates in certain targeted districts. And the party wins, say, 17 seats. Pretty good, for a new party.

But given that Trumpy candidates arent likely to do very well in blue or even most purple districts, the net effect is probably going to be that theyll be unseating 17 Republicans. And whats the effect of that? To ensure that the Democrats the radical left socialists! hold a House majority.

Likewise, lets imagine the Patriot Party running a presidential candidate, most likely Mr. Trump himself, while the Republicans and Democrats run their candidates. Mr. Trump will get a lot of votes. He may even beat the Republican, as indeed Roosevelt bested Taft in 1912. But he will split the center-right vote in two, while the Democrat will get a typical 48 or so percent. Result? The Democrat will carry a lot of states with a plurality and thus win the Electoral College. And in the long run, the inexorable machinery of Duvergers Law will ensure that the Patriot Party is folded back into the Republican Party.

If Mr. Trump were serious about building a third party, one real approach would be to mount a campaign to do away with single-member districts. Our method of electing Congress isnt in the Constitution. Its a matter of law. For our first five or six decades, a number of states elected all their members of Congress on an at-large basis. So Congress can change the law if it wants to but members of Congress are loath to change laws that might affect their own employment.

One should never say never on these matters. The Whigs split in the early 1850s when their internal divisions over slavery became unbridgeable, which helped lead to that decades multiparty mayhem. That mayhem led to the rise of a new two-party system and, in 1860, elected the savior of the Republic. So it has happened. Most recently, about 165 years ago. (The Bull Moose Party, by the way, fizzled out in six years.)

But Mr. Trump would basically be creating a party that would make Democratic dominance much more likely.

He probably doesnt know all this. Or maybe he does, and he still wants to do it. If the latter, it would be what the Republicans so richly deserve for embracing someone who wasnt really one of them to begin with and who practically has shaken our democracy to its core with their acquiescence.

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Opinion | Why a Trump Third Party Would Be a Boon for Democrats - The New York Times

WASHINGTON (NewsNation Now) House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy met late Tuesday with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene as Republicans discussed how to handle a bipartisan outcry over her embrace of conspiracy theories, including suggestions that mass shootings at the nations schools were staged.

Aides to McCarthy and Greene offered no immediate comment after the two spent around 90 minutes together in his Capitol office. Their session came as the GOP faced unrest from opposing ends of the Republican spectrum over Greene and Rep. Liz Cheney, who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump.

Without action by Republicans, Democrats were threatening to force a House vote Wednesday on removing Greene, R-Ga., from her assigned committees. She had been named to the education committee, a decision that drew harsh criticism because of her suggestions that school shootings in Newtown, Connecticut, and Parkland, Florida, could be hoaxes.

A spokesperson for House Republican leader KevinMcCarthysaid last week that he was disturbed by Greenes comments and planned to have a conversation with her about them.

The House GOP Steering Committee, a leadership-dominated body that makes committee assignments for the party, also met late Tuesday.

On social media, Greene has also expressed racist views and supported calls for violence against Democratic politicians, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. McCarthy, R-Calif., has stopped short of criticizing the first-term congresswoman, who was dubbed a future Republican Star by Trump last summer and has remained a firm Trump supporter.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and others have boosted pressure this week on the House GOP to act.

In a statement that didnt use Greenes name, he called her loony lies a cancer on the GOP.

In addition, Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., whos been trying to combat the GOPs pro-Trump wing, said he favored removing Greene from her committees, saying Republicans must take a stand to disavow her.

Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, a Trump critic and the GOP 2012 presidential nominee, said Tuesday that Republicans must separate ourselves from the people that are the wacky weeds.

On the GOPs furthest right wing, lawmakers were pushing to oust Cheney, a traditional conservative and daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, from her post as the No. 3 House Republican after she voted to impeach Trump last month. McConnell praised Cheney, R-Wyo., as a leader with deep convictions and courage, but House GOP lawmakers planned to meet privately Wednesday to decide her political fate.

John Fredericks, who led Trumps Virginia campaigns in 2016 and 2020, warned that there would be party primaries against Cheney defenders.

Weve got millions and millions of woke, motivated, America-first Trump voters that believe in the movement, Fredericks said. If youre going to keep Liz Cheney in leadership, theres no party.

Rep. Matt Rosendale, R-Mont., a leader of the effort to oust Cheney, says he has enough support to succeed.

Shes brought this on herself, Rosendale said. He said Cheney, who was joined by only nine other Republicans in backing impeachment, was wrong to not forewarn colleagues about her decision.

Republicans have said that GOP members would unite against a Democratic move to remove Greene from her committee assignments and that such an effort would help Greene cast herself as a victim of partisan Democrats.

As if to illustrate that point, Greene herself tweeted fundraising appeals Tuesday that said, With your support, the Democrat mob cant cancel me, beneath a picture of herself standing with Trump. She tweeted later Tuesday shed surpassed her fundraising goal and was raising it to $150,000.

They are coming after me because like President Trump, I will always defend conservative values, she said in a statement last week.

McCarthy has said he supports Cheney but also has concerns, leaving his stance on her unclear.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report

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McCarthy meets with Rep. Greene over conspiracy theories as Democrats push for committee removal - WANE

WASHINGTON (AP) The Democratic push to raise the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour has emerged as an early flashpoint in the fight for a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package, testing President Joe Bidens ability to bridge Washingtons partisan divides as he pursues his first major legislative victory.

Biden called for a $15 hourly minimum wage during his campaign and has followed through by hitching it to a measure that, among other things, calls for $1,400 stimulus checks and $130 billion to help schools reopen. Biden argues that anyone who holds a full-time job shouldnt live in poverty, echoing progressives in the Democratic Party who are fully on board with the effort.

With the economic divide, I mean, I want to see a $15 minimum wage. It should actually be $20, said Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich.

Some Republicans support exploring an increase but are uneasy with $15 an hour. They warn that such an increase could lead to job losses in an economy that has nearly 10 million fewer jobs than it did before the pandemic began. Moderates such as Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Rep. Tom Reed of New York are urging Biden to split off the minimum wage hike from COVID-19 talks and deal with it separately.

The more you throw into this bucket of COVID relief thats not really related to the crisis, the more you risk the credibility with the American people that youre really sincere about the crisis, Reed said. Including the wage increase, Murkowski said, complicates politically an initiative that we should all be working together to address.

The resistance from moderates has left Democrats with a stark choice: Wait and build bipartisan support for an increase or move ahead with little to no GOP backing, potentially as part of a package that can pass the Senate with Vice President Kamala Harris tiebreaking vote. Democratic leaders appear to be moving toward the latter option, with no guarantee of success. Even if raising the wage can get past procedural challenges, passage will require the support from every Democrat in the 50-50 Senate, which could be a tall order.

Leading the charge is Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., who unveiled $15 wage legislation this week with the backing of 37 Senate Democrats. His bill would gradually raise the wage to $15 over a period of five years. The federal minimum is $7.25 and has not been raised since 2009.

Sanders, the incoming chair of the Senate Budget Committee, said it was fine with him if Republicans were not prepared to come on board. He said the government needed to pump money into the economy to make sure people are not working on starvation wages.

Democrats are moving toward using a tool that allows certain budget-related items to bypass the Senate filibuster a hurdle requiring 60 votes and pass with a simple majority. Sanders is confident that a minimum wage increase fits within the allowed criteria for what is referred to in Washington lingo as budget reconciliation, though the Senate parliamentarian has final say on what qualifies.

As you will recall, my Republican colleagues used reconciliation to give almost $2 trillion in tax breaks to the rich and large corporations in the midst of massive income inequality. They used reconciliation to try to repeal the Affordable Care Act and throw 32 million people off the health care they had. They used reconciliation to allow for drilling in the Arctic wilderness, Sanders said. You know what? I think we can use reconciliation to protect the needs of working families.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said the Senate as early as next week will begin taking the first steps toward getting the COVID-19 relief bill passed through the budget reconciliation process. The goal would be passage by March.

The latest sign that a $15 minimum wage is popular with voters came in November, when more than 60% of voters in conservative-leaning Florida approved an amendment to the states Constitution that will raise the minimum wage there from $8.56 an hour to $15 an hour by 2026.

The House passed legislation to gradually increase the minimum wage in the last Congress, but it went nowhere in the GOP-controlled Senate. Opponents argue that a large increase in the minimum wage would lead many employers to cut the number of workers they have on their payrolls.

A 2019 study from the Congressional Budget Office projected that an increase to $15 an hour would boost the wages of 17 million Americans. An additional 10 million workers making more than $15 an hour would see a boost as well. However, about 1.3 million workers would lose their jobs.

Theres no question that raising the minimum wage, especially to $15, will put some small businesses out of business and will cost a lot of low-wage workers their jobs, said Neil Bradley, the chief policy officer at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Bradley said there should be a separate debate on the minimum wage, and while the U.S. Chamber of Commerce opposes $15 an hour, were open to a reasonable increase in the minimum wage and that ought to be a topic of discussion. But, you know, including that in the COVID package just imperils the whole thing.

Mary Kay Henry, international president of the Service Employees International Union, said that increasing the minimum wage would benefit many of the people who have been working on the front lines of the pandemic. Thats why she supports including it in the COVID-19 relief package.

Theyve been called essential, but they all believe theyve been treated as expendable or sacrificial because they dont earn enough to be able to put food on the table and keep themselves and their families safe and healthy, Henry said.

Henry says nursing home workers, janitors, security guards and home health workers are among the unions 2 million members.

The real way to appreciate this work is to raise the minimum wage to $15, she said.

Most states also have minimum wage laws. Employees generally are entitled to the higher of the two minimum wages. Currently, 29 states and Washington, D.C., have minimum wages above the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour.

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[AP] Biden, Democrats hit gas on push for $15 minimum wage - The Associated Press