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In the wake of last Thursdays debate debacle, President Joe Biden and his defenders are pushing back against calls for him to abandon his reelection bid by claiming that he can still beat Trump.

But that assertion is deeply questionable and ignores a much bigger problem: how dire things could get for downballot politicians if Biden stays in the race.

On Saturday night, two days after the debate, I helped my son cater a Democratic Party fundraiser in Durango, Colorado, for Adam Frisch, the Democratic candidate for Congress in the states 3rd District, Lauren Boeberts current district.

CD-3 is massive. It takes up almost half the state and is bigger than Pennsylvania. It is mostly rural, though its largest city is Pueblo, a traditional manufacturing town. Outside Pueblo, the economy is a mix of farming, ranching, oil and gas, mining, education, and outdoor recreation. The district contains the headwaters of the Colorado River system that provides water for six states.

Republicans enjoy a 5 percent registration advantage over Democrats, but 42 percent of voters are independents. Hispanic Coloradans make up 26 percent of the population; virtually all the rest of the population is white.

CD-3s rural character and whiteness, as well as the increasing conservatism of Western Hispanics, make it a tough district for Democrats. But it is winnable. Frisch nearly beat Boebert in 2022, losing by only 546 votes. The prospect of a rematch with him scared her so badly that she decamped to the other side of the state to run in a district with a 20 percent Republican registration advantage.

What makes Frisch formidable in this swing district is that, although he has the disadvantage of being a rich former finance guy who lives in Aspen, he is, by disposition, a political moderate. In fact, Bidens kind of guy. And he has done the work. He has learned the issues that matter here: water, energy, land use. For three years, he has traveled constantly to every town and hamlet. He meets regularly with groups Democrats tend to ignorethe Cattlemens Association, mining and energy interests, business groups.

But now that Boebert has fled, Frisch has a much tougher race. Republicans have nominated an unremarkable Grand Junction lawyer who is conservative and Trump-supporting but not insane. In short, a great fit for R+5 CD-3. Frisch can still win, but he needs big turnout from Democrats and from persuadable independents.

Which brings us back to Biden and the Frisch fundraiser.

At the end of the Q&A session, one bold soul raised the question on everyones mind: What did Frisch think about the debate and its effect on Bidens prospects and his own?

Carefully, respectfully, Frisch told the crowd of Democratic loyalists that although he admired the presidents governing accomplishments, he had been concerned about Bidens age for years. Then, sometimes elliptically, but in the end unmistakably, Frisch confessed to thinking that the debate collapse made Bidens reelection unlikely. As he put it, governance is important, but in order to govern, you have to be elected.

When pressed further, Frisch grudgingly admitted that Bidens age and now-undeniable frailty made his own election in Colorado tougher too. And, though he carefully avoided saying so directly, the candidate made it clear that he hoped Democratic Party elders would have serious conversations with the president about withdrawing from the race. (A few days later, Frisch issued a video statement and an op-ed unequivocally calling for Biden to withdraw.)

When Frisch finished speaking, a remarkable and telling thing happened. No one in that crowd of lifelong Democrats raised so much as a murmur of dissent.

I have since been told that, unsurprisingly, there are local Democrats who disagreesome quite stronglywith Frischs position on the viability of Bidens candidacy. Nonetheless, my own assessment is that the vast majority of attendees at the gathering understood two things that Bidens inner circle must accept.

First, Bidens collapse at the debate was not merely a slight wobble, an off day that anyone might have and recover from. It was, at the least, powerful evidence that the president is, sadly, too old to serve four more years. The committed Democrats in that Colorado barn on Saturdaynot one of them a Biden hater or member of the coastal elite mediasaw what the world saw during the debate. None of them tried to deny the obvious. And none of them raised a voice to deny the obvious consequence:If this aged and diminished Biden remains in the race, the risk that he will lose to Donald Trump is very high indeed, and certainly far higher than it was before the debate.

Second, if Biden stays in the race, he is likely to drag swing-district Democrats like Adam Frisch down with him. In a presidential year, turnout is driven by voters reactions to the presidential race. Hardcore Democrats and Republicans will come out and vote for their partys presidential and congressional nominees regardless of individual merit. But many independents and lukewarm Democratsthe people that both Biden and congressional Democrats like Frisch need to wincould be more likely to stay home in disgust or despair.

If they do, they will not be voting in downballot races at all. Not only could Biden lose, but lots of other Democrats across the country could lose too. And if that happens, Trump could enter the presidency without even the check of one or more houses of Congress in Democratic control.

I admire Biden immensely. He has long been an exemplary public servant. He has accomplished great things in his first term. Perhaps, despite last weeks debate, he can somehow pull off an electoral miracle. But I doubt it. Replacing him would be awkward, to be sure. But I think that a Democrat, almost any Democrat, younger, more vigorous, and free of the baggage with which years of disingenuous Republican attacks have saddled Biden, now has a better chance of beating Trump.

Biden needs to do one last agonizing, soul-searing service for the country he loves. Step aside. Let a new generation take up the fight. If he will not do that, then the Trumpian darkness he rightly fears is more likely to fall. And if it does, that catastrophe will properly be laid, at least in part, to his charge.

See the article here:
Another important reason Biden should drop out of the race. - Slate

For the past year, at least, the so-called wisest Democrats in Washington have not simply been telling me that President Biden is a strong candidate for president, or even their best candidate but also that he is the only candidate who can possibly beat Donald Trump, because he is the only one who has done it before.

This was always a childlike rationale. Trump has only beaten one very flawed Democrat, and his party has lost every national election since, so its not like you have to be the love child of Lyndon Johnson and Margaret Thatcher to have a chance at beating him. But within the first 20 seconds of Thursdays debate, as Biden shuffled slowly and unsteadily toward the lectern, it must have occurred even to the presidents admirers that, far from being the only candidate who can win, he might not even rank in the top 10.

The question everyones asking is: What comes next? If the answer is chaos and contention, I think Democrats would be wise to bring it on.

Of course, the party, such as still exists, should never have put the country in this kind of foreseeable peril to begin with. As Ive written several times, Democrats were dead set on nominating an 81-year-old incumbent with a 40 percent approval rating, with democracy hanging in the balance, largely because they feared that his vice president would otherwise inherit the top spot on the ticket and lose.

Now, they find themselves in the predictable position of having realized possibly too late that the imagery of a Biden campaign will overwhelm anything he has to say about policy or judgment. Democrats committed the age-old political sin of confusing hope with strategy, and the country is now at risk of paying for it.

Biden might yet be persuaded to step aside and let the party choose another nominee. But that would likely mean a scramble for votes and a floor fight at the convention (assuming the party couldnt unify behind Vice President Harris by the time of a virtual nomination vote in August). This scares Democrats to death. It shouldnt.

Democrats harbor a deep, almost pathological fear of disorderly conventions. This goes all the way back to 1968 (and, to some extent, 1980 as well), when divisions inside the party burst into the open, cleaving constituencies and creating an indelible image of disarray. In both of those years, Democrats controlled the White House and, both times, their internal bickering seemed mostly responsible for squandering it.

For generations of Democrats, maybe the worst nightmare imaginable involved an alien race of little Richard Nixons and Newt Gingriches beaming down from space and enslaving the human race. But a raucous convention ranked a pretty close second.

Let me, however, state what should be regrettably obvious: Nothing about our society looks like it did in 1968. Parties, like all big institutions in American life, are losing their currency. Nominating conventions barely register on the public radar these days, for the few hours that anyone bothers to televise them while the rest of America is at the lake or the beach. We skim right over the dull choreography of the modern convention; it is the junk mail of prime-time programming.

Unscripted TV, on the other hand, is now the closest thing we have to a culturally shared experience, outside of the Super Bowl. What is the genesis of Trump, if not a national thirst for unscripted entertainment? He represents the triumph of personality over party, a creation not of politics, but of everything that is impolitic and impolite.

If Biden were to accept reality and step aside, for once, Democrats would have a genuine opportunity to match Trumps theatrical dominance. What better way to recast yourself with the electorate than through a gripping, episodic fight for leadership? What could draw more people into politics than a must-watch nightly drama, with the fate of the nation at stake? I have to believe that Trump a modern-day P.T. Barnum who feeds off the boring artifice of his adversaries fears that spectacle more than anything.

And in a political age in which familiarity breeds distrust, what could be more advantageous than choosing a nominee preferably one from outside Washington with only two months to campaign? Imagine the explosion of interest that would surround some fresh, non-octogenarian Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, Gina Raimondo, Josh Shapiro during a 10-week barnstorming tour. Hows Trump going to handle that?

Even Harris, for all her flaws as a political messenger, would benefit immensely from an open fight, should she ultimately triumph. It would reintroduce her as a unifier and a winner, and afford her a rare opportunity to commandeer the national stage.

I understand why Democrats flinch at the thought of blowing everything up now, with the primaries over and the convention approaching. I get that chaos and dissension always come with a mountain of risk.

Is it more risk than the one theyre taking with Biden at the top of the ticket? If you watched the debate, you already know the answer.

Read more here:
Opinion | An open Democratic convention would be must-see TV (and smart politics) - The Washington Post

Will he stand, or will he stand down? Thats the question Joe Biden is facing as the July 4 holiday weekend begins.

Biden reportedly told a key ally that he is considering whether he should continue his run for reelection or not. In Wednesdays New York Times article, Biden allies said the president recognizes that his challenge in the days ahead is to convince voters, donors and the political class that his debate performance was an anomaly.

In response, White House Senior Deputy Press Secretary and Deputy Assistant to the President Andrew Bates posted on X: That claim is absolutely false. If the New York Times had provided us with more than 7 minutes to comment we would have told them so.

At a White House press briefing Wednesday afternoon, Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre fielded sustained questioning about Bidens health, claiming his dreadful debate performance last week was down to jet lag and a cold. This was not an excuse, she said, but rather an explanation. Jean-Pierre claimed the White House had been transparent, but she refused to say if the White House would release more of Bidens medical information. The president, she said, was strong, resolute and as sharp as ever.

Despite the pushback from the White House regarding the swirling rumors, the hard questions remain. As Former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi framed Bidens challenge, following his disastrous debate appearance last week: Is this an episode, or is this a condition?

The problem is that it is virtually impossible to do what the president apparently believes can be achieved through a series of TV interviews, phone calls with leaders, and public appearances over the next few days. He can go a long way to making it appear for the moment that his appalling debate performance was a one-off, but he cannot wipe from the minds of voters or supporters the prospect of a scenario that has terrified many Democrats for months.

It is a plausible sequence of events that has been frequently discussed behind the scenes as the effects of Bidens very natural and predictable aging has become increasingly apparent.

One of the Democratic Partys biggest donors put it this way to me in January, I love Biden. Ive supported him for years. But the stakes are too high for us to get this wrong. The country cant endure another Trump presidency.

Thats why, he said, what haunts me at night is the prospect that Biden does fine throughout the campaign, then, in October, days or weeks before the election, he gets sick. Or he stumbles and falls. Or he freezes up like Mitch McConnell did. There will be no coming back from that.

The fear is that not only would the media and the Trump campaign make a massive deal out of the storyremember Hillarys emails?but that it would be the late-in-the-campaign blow from which neither Biden nor the Democrats could recover. It could have a major effect on voters who are sitting on the fence and on turn outremember the Comey letter. It could easily decide the election in favor of Trump and the MAGA GOP.

Joe Biden delivers remarks on extreme weather at the D.C. Emergency Operations Center in Washington, DC on July 2, 2024.

The issue is not loyalty to Biden, as one Democratic strategist put it to me, It is about loyalty to the country and also to the party. If you see Trump as an existential threat to our democracy then the number one, two and three questions are how do you maximize your odds for beating him. Starting out with a candidate who is clearly not the man he used to be and who may blow up at any minute is a big risk.

Should the same questions be asked about Donald Trump? Definitely. Pelosi also addressed that when she pointedly concluded the statement quoted above by saying that questions about fitness were reasonable to ask about both candidates. Trump has shown many symptoms of mental decline and of instability that have had doctors and commentators buzzing. People have been saying it for years. And earlier this year, after Trump confused Nikki Haley with Nancy Pelosi, Haley went so far as to say When youre dealing with the pressures of the presidency, we cantquestion whether theyre mentally fit to do thiswe cant.

Of course, Haley subsequently said she would support Trump which no doubt raises some questions about her own mental facilities. But that also brings us to a crucial factor for Democrats to consider. Republicans are not going to step away from Trump. Calling for him to step down because of his manifold flaws is a waste of breath. It will never happen. Condemning well-reported New York Times articles detailing both sides of the argument about Bidens mental acuity for not spending more time doing the same about Trumpas many Biden defenders have done on social mediais just not fruitful.

So, by all means, Trumps fitness must become an election issue. But the only way Democrats can make it one is by ensuring there is not a counter argument that targets their candidate. Indeed, because Trumps porridge-for-brains lunacy should be such a central argument of the Democrats Fall campaign, it is critical that from the standard bearer on down, Democrats are seen as credible critics of our once and potentially future malignant narcissist, pathological liar, cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs nutjob-in-chief.

The concerns about Bidens seeming decline and the perils of continuing with him as the candidate are coming from active Biden supporters.

It is fascinating and telling that almost every article written or statement made about this issue by Democrats and even by independent commentators begins with a statement noting Bidens success during his first term as president and often, the admiration or fondness the writer has for Biden himself. This is another key to understanding this story. The concerns about Bidens seeming decline and the perils of continuing with him as the candidate are coming from active Biden supporters. They are not about a lack of appreciation for him. They are about the nuts and bolts issue of winning in November.

It is similarly revealing that one eventthe debatecould have triggered such an uproar and an increasingly deadly serious discussion about whether Biden is the right candidate to lead the Democrats to victory in November. That is, of course, because it is not one event that is triggering it. Rather, the debate, has brought the discussion that even the presidents most enthusiastic supporters were having behind closed doors for many months now into the open.

I personally have countless times, almost daily, heard questions about whether or not Biden should seek a second term since before his first term beganinside the Beltway and far from it, across the U.S. and around the world, from political insiders and from regular people who dont much get involved in politics. And increasingly, given the risks associated with a Trump victory in November, the questions raised have less to do with whether Biden could be expected to be an effective president in four years when he was 86 years old and more to do with whether or not Biden could become his own worst October surprise.

Is it fair to judge a man of demonstrated strengths and massive achievements by a few off moments that all people who are aging encounter? Perhaps not. But it is a political reality with which Joe Biden, the White House, the Democratic Party and the country are desperately and appropriately grappling right now.

Read more:
The Biden Scenario That Terrifies Big Democrat Donors and Candidates - The Daily Beast

President Joe Biden has an electability problem. To counter that reality evident for months but put on the spotlight by a dismal debate performance last week his campaign on Monday touted a poll finding that eight other Democrats would lose to former President Donald Trump at similar margins as the incumbent.

Team Biden would have you believe that the poll shows that he has the best chance at beating Trump. Yet if the poll is meant to answer the question of which Democrat would fare best against Trump, the answer, evidently, is nearly anyone else.

The post-debate Data for Progress poll tested the odds of eight Democrats who have been floated as possible alternatives to Biden, including Vice President Kamala Harris and multiple Democratic governors. Bidens self-proclaimed advantage is tempered by the lack of name recognition so far for the other options. Aside from Harris, prospective voters were so unfamiliar with these Democratic leaders that between 39 and 71 percent of respondents said they hadnt heard enough about them to have an opinion. Even so, each potential candidate performed the same or even better than Biden.

For instance, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is losing to Trump by 2 points, compared to Bidens 3 despite the fact that 56 percent of voters do not know enough about her to share any particular opinion. Others, like Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, like Biden, trail Trump by 3, despite having little name recognition. Harris had the same result as Biden.

Since the poll results come without any concentrated campaign by any of the officials, they can be read as a reflection of floors rather than ceilings for each of the alternative Democrats. Given mass voter discontent with the choice between Trump and Biden, the polling suggests that voters could readily get behind someone else.

A Reuters poll conducted as far back as January found that about half of Democrats and 75 percent of independents thought Biden should not run for president again; it also found that 31 percent of Republicans and 63 percent of independents said Trump shouldnt run again. A NewsNation poll conducted around the same time found that 59 percent of Americans wouldnt be enthusiastic about a Biden-Trump rematch. The trend has continued in recent polling: A post-debate USA Today poll found that 41 percent of Democrats and 64 percent of independents wanted Biden replaced, with 63 percent of independents wanting Trump replaced. A CBS poll similarly found nearly half of Democrats want Biden to step aside.

In the aftermath of the debate, a CNN poll found 75 percent of all voters thought Democrats would have a better chance at winning the election with someone other than Biden at the top of the ticket. It suggested Whitmer, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg were all doing slightly better than the presiden, with Harris within the margin of error of Trump. (Harriss net-approval rating average is also 9 points better than Bidens).

This polling suggests there are substantial numbers of disenchanted Democrats, independents, and even Republicans who could be enthused by an alternative, while those still standing by Biden are just as likely to support any Democratic alternative to Trump. A Democratic presidential campaign thats been shedding support could instead be one thats gaining momentum.

In nearly every way, Biden is carrying baggage that no alternative Democrat would inherit. Aside from a five-day stretch, Biden has trailed Trump in national polling averages for the better part of the campaign. Trumps margin widened again after last weeks debate. Biden has been underperforming Democratic Senate candidates in a range of states, including ones he will need to win in 2024, such as Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and even Ohio. Post-debate polls show Biden sinking in these states and even bringing others like New Hampshire and New Mexico into play. His approval rating is about the lowest its ever been during his presidency, at a net negative of 19.

And its not just the polling. Biden has faced a historic protest vote campaign in the form of the Uncommitted movement, which has netted hundreds of thousands of votes nationwide, including in key battleground states, expressing discontent with Bidens almost-unconditional support for Israels war on Gaza. His handling of the war has also birthed a historic nationwide movement of campus and community protests that could continue into the fall.

With concerns surrounding his age and mental fitness hanging over his campaign, one fact bears acknowledgment: Biden is not getting any younger.

Efforts to challenge Biden earlier in the cycle did not take off in part because the political establishment had put up a united front around Biden. But even as Bidens advisers try to tamp down concerns, the list of people who have expressed concern about Bidens performance or suggested he step aside in order to maximize the odds of beating Trump range only grows. They range from Never Trump Republicans Bill Kristol and Sarah Longwell and hosts of the former Obama staffer-led Pod Save America, to Rhode Island Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse and Rep. Gabe Amo, to the editorial boards of the Chicago Tribune, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, and the New York Times, former Obama Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julin Castro, and several Democratic members of Congress and committee leaders nationwide including former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.

On Tuesday, Rep. Lloyd Doggett became the first sitting Democratic member of Congress to call on Biden to step aside.

For now, the possible alternative candidates have stayed quiet and reiterated their support for Biden. Whitmer reportedly called a senior Biden campaign official to express that she hated she was being floated as a possible replacement, while also sharing concern about how much more difficult the campaign will now be for Biden. She later released a statement affirming her 100 percent support for Bidens fight against Trump.

Newsom, who one California columnist has described as waiting in the wings, maintained his tune as an avid Biden surrogate even while being swarmed by reporters after the debate. On Thursday night, he expressed his disgust at Trumps debate performance and his pride in Biden on the substance.

If the president is meant to be a messenger for the wider governing structure he represents, Biden, as evidenced by his debate performance, falls short. While Trump spouted lies and racist remarks like clockwork, Biden fumbled to not only respond to those comments, but even to maintain a coherent positive message. If the president is meant to actively craft and execute responsive policy, just look to Bidens remarkable intransigence in supporting Israels war or his timidness in the face of an out-of-control and unaccountable Supreme Court as signs of a politicaland an electoral liability. If the role of a president is some combination of both, Bidens recent record appears all the worse.

Despite their hesitance to jump in, alternative candidates have the possibility to not only more effectively contrast themselves against Trump but also against Bidens inability to do so. And in a race in which the American public is disenchanted not just with Biden, but with Trump too, the question is whether other Democrats have a better chance than the incumbent against someone who ought to be among the most beatable candidates in presidential election history.

After all, Trump is now the first former president to be a convicted felon and still faces several other criminal proceedings. He appointed three of the Supreme Court justices who not only helped overturn decades-old abortion rights in the U.S., but recently freed corporate America from regulation and ruled that homeless people can be considered criminals for sleeping outside, while crime-committing presidents can be immune from prosecution for nearly any misdeed. He is the face of a movement that sought to overturn an election, that has pursued book bans and mass deportations and infringements on peoples abilities to love whoever they do.

In 2020, Biden had the benefit of challenging a historically unpopular incumbent and garnering the volunteer energy to do so, and still, he won narrowly. If he takes seriously his own warnings of what dangers Trumps re-ascendance may unleash, he would act accordingly. By every single metric, he is faring much worse in 2024 than he did four years ago, while those same factors suggest nearly any prominent Democratic alternative could perform better.

Read more:
Is Joe Biden the Worst Option for Democrats to Beat Trump? - The Intercept

The Biden campaign wasted no time slamming former President Donald Trump and making a plea for campaign donations, minutes after the guilty verdict in Trump's New York hush money trial.

"In New York today, we saw that no one is above the law," Biden campaign spokesman Michael Tyler said in a statement on Thursday evening. "There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the ballot box."

"A second Trump term means chaos, ripping away Americans' freedoms and fomenting political violence and the American people will reject it this November," Tyler added.

President Joe Biden's reelection effort echoed that statement on social media, with a link to the Democratic incumbent's donation page.

The campaign doubled down on that fundraising pitch in a text message blast to voters, asking for $20 donations: "If you have been waiting for the perfect time to make your first donation to Joe Biden's reelection campaign, we're here to tell you today is the day."

By contrast, the White House Counsel's Office spokesperson, Ian Sams, was relatively tight-lipped, saying only, "We respect the rule of law, and have no additional comment."

Trump on Thursday became the first former president to be convicted of felonies after a 12-person jury found him guilty of all 34 charges of falsifying business records in his New York hush money trial.

The Biden campaign's reaction marks a pivot to offense for the president's reelection team, and breaks President Joe Biden's weeks-long silence, as the hush money trial played out and the possibility of acquittal still existed.

President Joe Biden wears sunglasses given to him by supporters after speaking on the PACT Act, which expands coverage for veterans exposed to toxic substances, at the Westwood Park YMCA in Nashua, New Hampshire, on May 21, 2024.

Mandel Ngan | AFP | Getty Images

The campaign's attacks amplified a chorus of Democratic criticism from lawmakers across Capitol Hill.

"Despite his efforts to distract, delay, and deny justice arrived for Donald Trump all the same," Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Ca., said in a post on X.

Manhattan District AttorneyAlvin Bragg, a Democrat whose office prosecuted the case, took his own victory lap at a press conference in Manhattan with the rest of his legal team after the verdict.

"Today we have the most important voice of all, and that's the voice of the jurors. They have spoken. Donald J. Trump has been convicted of 34 counts of falsifying business records," he said.

In response to a question about the possibility of Trump serving jail time, Bragg pointed to Trump's July 11 sentencing: "We will speak in court at that time."

Trump, meanwhile, denounced the trial as "rigged" and a "witch hunt" that he falsely claimed had been ordered by President Joe Biden.

Original post:
Biden, Democrats react to Trump guilty verdict - CNBC