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Ted Cruz at a court hearing, June 28, 2016; Beto O'Rourke speaks to a constituent in El Paso, Texas, February 10, 2017.

Left, by Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call; Right, by Ivan Pierre Aguirre/The Washington Post, both from Getty Images.

Turning Texas blue is a persistent Democratic fantasy. And giving Ted Cruz a sound thrashing amounts to a bipartisan passion, although Republicans might prefer that he keep his Senate seat. In 2018, these hopes will collide, supplying an irresistible political drama. Cruz, for several reasons, has a dangerously low approval rating in Texas38 percentand the Democrats have a young, charismatic challenger named Beto ORourke, whos running a campaign similar to Jon Ossoffs in Georgia, positioning himself as a politician for all Texans. Hes looking to pick up the voters that Cruz has alienated with his relentless rightward tacking, his absence from the state as he focused on his presidential campaign, his acrobatic flip-flops on Donald Trump, and his notorious unlikeability.

I am not smart enough, and I haven't hired, you know, the political consultants or pollsters who are smart enoughor think they are smart enoughto have some grand strategy on how to exploit this issue or that person or micro-target this population or the other, ORourke said in an interview with the Hive. Im just going everywhere, listening and talking with everyone . . . I want to know what is on their minds, what they care about and what they expect from their next senator. Then I want to make sure I can deliver on that.

The 44-year-old El Paso congressman is a former punk rocker who played in a band called Foss. He has a bachelors degree from Columbia University and started his own technology company. He speaks fluent Spanish and took his wife, Amy, across the U.S.-Mexico border into Juarez for their first date. And as Austin-based political strategist Brendan Steinhauser put it, it doesnt hurt that O'Rourke looks like a damn Kennedy.

In recent years, Democrats and Texas have had a relationship much like Charlie Brown and the football. The Hillary Clinton campaign fantasized about winning Texas, but lost it to Trump by a nine point margin. In the 2014 gubernatorial race, Wendy Davisthe Ivy League-educated, telegenic state senator who rose to national prominence for her marathon filibuster of an anti-abortion billwas supposed to turn the tide. She lost to former Texas attorney general Greg Abbott by 20 points. Wendy had all the money, all the energy, the story, the narrative and did no better, Steinhauser, who served as Senator John Cornyns campaign manager and worked for the conservative PAC FreedomWorks, said.

Even many Democrats dont believe that 2018 is the year Texas could change color after a decades-long Republican winning streak in statewide elections. Congressman Joaquin Castro, who, along with his twin brother, former San Antonio mayor and Housing and Urban Development head Julian Castro, is often pointed to as the future of the Texas Democratic party, passed on a run earlier this month. The talk in Texas is that hes saving his ammo for a campaign against Cornyn, whos up for re-election in 2020, a presidential year when turnout, especially minority turnout, is likely to be higher.

But theres a school of thought that President Trump changes the equation. Harold Cook, a long-time Democratic strategist in Texas mused, In a typical year . . . the only thing you have to do in Texas to win an election is be the Republican nominee and avoid getting hit by a bus before Election Day. But Cook also believes that 2018 could be the atypical year Democrats have waited for. He characterized Beto ORourkes entry into the race as an embarrassment of riches that he is not exactly sure Texas Democrats deserve at a time when the party could actually break the Republicans winning streak. It is not just wishing because Ted Cruz is an ass. Its more than that, Cook said. To separate this from wishing, you really do have to have an overriding, probably national, cloud over the Republican brand. I cant think of a bigger cloud than Donald Trump.

Texas Republicans claim to be salivating over the prospect of an ORourke matchup. We have never seen anybody with his ideology elected in Texas. If elected, he would be one of the most liberal senators in the nation. He would rival Elizabeth Warren, one long-time Republican operative said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. There are places for people like that and there are districts they are likely to represent, that is probably not the Texas Senate.

When ORourke announced his Senate run at the end of March, Cruz was quick to launch the first of a torrent of attacks on the congressmans progressive credentials. A liberal Democrat is announcing a campaign today to try to turn TX blue, he tweeted with a link to his campaign Web site. And in the weeks since, Cruz has tried to tie O'Rourke to the boogeymen of the right, Rosie ODonnell and George Soros.

Hyper-partisanship, ORourke said, is a pretty f--ked up way to run a country.

But Cruz has work to do among his own party in Texas. Cruz and his arch-conservative obstructionist antics have never been popular among the states moderate and chamber of commerce Republicans. I think there are some [Republicans] in the moderate middle that are certainly not going to support him, Steinhauser said. There is a huge divide there, so they are going to look at somebody else.

Then there was Cruzs unforced error at the Republican National Convention when he declared he was not in the habit of supporting people who attack my wife and who attack my father and declined to endorse Trump. His favorability rating among Republicans was nearly halved almost overnight, prompting him to reverse course on Trump two months later. Cruz is politically toxic enough in Texas that even Cornyn, the states senior senator and G.O.P. whip, wont endorse him in his 2018 re-election bid.

Cruzs unpopularity means that theres only marginal benefit in further tarnishing him personally. So ORourkes attacks, at least for now, are subtler. I think almost everyone has formed their opinion or made their judgment on Ted Cruz, and they have watched what he has done over the last four years, which was extraordinary in terms of his accomplishments as a presidential candidate . . . But that certainly came at the loss of his constituents in Texas and the people that he was supposed to be serving during those four years and did not, ORourke said when pressed about his opponent. As in any campaign, part of it is the difference between you and the incumbent if you are the challenger. And part of itI think the more important part of itis what you want to achieve for the people that you are campaigning to represent.

By Drew Anthony Smith/Getty Images.

Cruz, aligned with the Tea Party and the House Freedom Caucus, is a paragon of partisan politics and dysfunction in Washington, while ORourkelike Ossoffmakes plenty of centrist noises. The congressman characterized the enduring reluctance in Congress to reach across the aisle as a pretty f--ked up way to run a country and said, I am not a rocket scientist, but the only way you can get something done in D.C. when you have Republican majority control in the House and the Senate is to work with Republicans, so I am going to work with Republicans.

In recent elections, the focus among G.O.P. candidates in Texas has shifted away from the general electionwhich they are assumed to wintoward the primary races, where moderate candidates get crowded out. This dynamic has resulted in an outpouring of hyper conservative legislation from Texasdespite a steady shift in demographics over time that traditionally favors Democrats. What that does is it protects you in the next election. What it doesnt do is grow a political party. In fact, over time, it will shrink one, Cook said. Anger, one of these days, is going to be a powerful motivator in this state.

While Cruzs bid for the White House midway through his first Senate term alienated some of the Republican base, people at least know who he is. ORourke, on the other hand, is a relative unknown. I would much rather be the guy who has 100 percent name I.D., has 40 percent that dont like him and never will, and 40 percent that absolutely love him and the rest in the middle, Steinhauser said. I would rather be with that guy than with a new face that nobody knows.

Texass sprawl and its 23 media markets make running a campaign vastly expensive. The cost to challenge Cruz could be around $30 millionif not much more. And ORourke is raising the degree of difficulty by refusing to accept PAC money, a Bernie Sanders-style move that could hamstring his own fund-raising apparatus. I am leaving millions of dollars on the table, but thats fine because its bringing thousands of people into this campaign, he said. There is no other influence or concern or interests that I have to pay attention to and if elected, there is no one else that I am serving except Texas and families in this state.

And it is unlikely that a Texas Democrat would see much support from the Democratic senatorial campaign committee, which is defending 25 seats in 2018. And of the nine Republican-held senatorial seats up for next year, Jeff Flake of Arizona and Dean Heller of Nevada are more obvious targets than Cruz. But Jeremy Bird, a Democratic strategist who served as the field director for Obamas 2012 re-election campaign, emphasized the important role the dislike for Cruz might play. I think Ted Cruz will be a motivating factor for a lot of people to give on the Democratic side in this race, both their time but also their money, he said.

Democrats have credited their decades-long losing streakthe party hasnt won a statewide election since 1994to low voter turnout in the minority-majority state. To me, the question is: can we build a progressive majority in Texas? If we do that, beating Ted Cruz will be a side effectand it would be an awesome side effect, one long-time Democratic political consultant in Texas told me. To win, Beto will have to turn out a sizable chunk of voters with a low propensity to vote in addition to the voters that cast their ballots for Clinton last fall. This will be a considerable challenge in an off-cycle year, when Democrats are already at a disadvantage historically and Governor Abbott and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick will also be up for re-election. Texas allows for straight-ticket voting, which means Cruzwhile not the most popular himselfcould see a boost in support thanks to the other Republicans on the ballot and G.O.P. lever-pulling.

ORourke isnt naive about the fact that he faces an uphill battle, but he thinks he can change his odds. I dont know when the last time a Democrat campaigned this hard in the Panhandle and West Texas 600 days from the election or spent time with leaders in Wichita Falls or Corpus Christi in addition to the places that have been reliably Democratic, he said. But I gotta tell youit feels right.

Republicans were quick to dismiss an April 2017 Texas Lyceum poll in which ORourke tied with Cruz at 30 percent of the vote in a hypothetical Senate racebut Democrats see it as a glimmer of hope. Beto is one of those out-of-the box candidates that captures peoples imaginations and when a candidate captures the imagination of voters, boywatch out, Cook said.

While he plans to run as an optimist and a senator for all Texans, ORourke knows that Trump is creating the political weather. Its very clear what is happening in this country and where the president is trying to take us, ORourke said, citing the border wall, immigration, attacks on the free press, and the ongoing Justice Department investigation into the Trump campaigns alleged Russian ties. We will all be held to account to what we did or did not do in the face of that.

The O.G. Never Trumper, Romney effectively renounced his past denunciations of the president-elect, whom he had previously called a con man, when Trump began publicly courting him for secretary of state. (He did not get the job.)

A long time ago, in the year 2016, the R.N.C. chairman threw everything he could to prevent Trump from becoming the partys nominee. Days after Trump won, Reince stood by his side as his chief of staff, possibly getting the least humiliating outcome for an erstwhile Trump foe.

The House Speaker spent months trying to maintain a safe distance from Trump, condemning his statements (even as he declined to renounce him) and at one point canceling a rally appearance with Trump after his past p****-grabbing comments came to light. Flash-forward two months, and Ryan was praising Trump in front of a cheering crowd in Wisconsin, thanking him for clinching the first Republican presidential win in the state in decades.

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The O.G. Never Trumper, Romney effectively renounced his past denunciations of the president-elect, whom he had previously called a con man, when Trump began publicly courting him for secretary of state. (He did not get the job.)

Digital Colorization by Ben Park; From Getty Images.

Digital Colorization by Ben Park; From Getty Images.

Digital Colorization by Ben Park.

A long time ago, in the year 2016, the R.N.C. chairman threw everything he could to prevent Trump from becoming the partys nominee. Days after Trump won, Reince stood by his side as his chief of staff, possibly getting the least humiliating outcome for an erstwhile Trump foe.

Digital Colorization by Ben Park; From Getty Images.

Digital Colorization by Ben Park; From PBS.

The House Speaker spent months trying to maintain a safe distance from Trump, condemning his statements (even as he declined to renounce him) and at one point canceling a rally appearance with Trump after his past p****-grabbing comments came to light. Flash-forward two months, and Ryan was praising Trump in front of a cheering crowd in Wisconsin, thanking him for clinching the first Republican presidential win in the state in decades.

Digital Colorization by Ben Park; From Getty Images.

Digital Colorization by Ben Park; From Getty Images.

Digital Colorization by Ben Park; From Getty Images.

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Meet the Kennedyesque Democrat Trying to Beat Ted Cruz - Vanity Fair

When Democrats and moderate Republicans picked up a large number of seats in the 2016 elections, expectations were high that they would form a governing coalition that could check the power of the more conservative Republicans who have all but ruled in the Kansas Statehouse through most of the Brownback administration.

But there were signs Wednesday that relations between the two groups is being strained, particularly after a vote in the House late the night before when a $600 million income tax bill went down in flames, 37-85.

Only moments earlier, the bill passed through the Senate, 26-14, which was only one vote shy of the two-thirds majority needed to override an all-but-certain veto from Gov. Sam Brownback. But when it reached the floor of the House shortly before midnight, the Democrat-moderate "coalition" appeared to rupture.

All four House members from Lawrence Democrats Barbara Ballard, Boog Highberger and John Wilson; and Republican Tom Sloan voted in favor of the bill, as did Rep. Jim Karleskint, R-Tonganoxie, whose district covers eastern Douglas County and Eudora.

But House Democratic Leader Jim Ward of Wichita voted no, as did other prominent Democrats such as Tom Assistant Minority Leader Stan Frownfelter of Kansas City, Minority Whip Ed Trimmer of Winfield, and Rep. Brandon Whipple of Wichita.

Moderate Republicans also split on the vote, with Rep. Melissa Rooker of Fairway voting in favor, but Rep. Russ Jennings of Lakin switching to no before the final tally was taken.

One sign that relations between the two groups was growing tense was in a Twitter exchange on Wednesday between Ward and moderate Republican Tom Cox of Shawnee, who supported the tax bill.

First, there was Ward:

Which prompted this reply from Cox.

Later in the day, in a House Democrats caucus meeting, Ward rejected the accusation that he had not tried to work with moderates, outlining a list of things he said would get him, and probably several other Democrats, to vote yes on a tax bill, but he said moderates had not been willing to cede much ground on any of them.

The list included such things as restoring tax deductions and tax credits that benefit the middle class but were repealed or reduced in Brownback's tax plan, or a higher rate than what has been proposed so far for the upper bracket in a three-tiered tax system.

He also said he would consider concessions outside of the tax discussion, like allowing a vote on concealed-carry, or sending a bill to Brownback's desk establishing a task force to monitor the state foster care system.

In the caucus meeting, however, Ward also conceded that the caucus itself was split almost down the middle, with about half of the 40-member caucus saying tax plans like the one offered Tuesday night may be short of what they would like, but are a good first step toward funding schools and solving the state's budget crisis.

"The other group, which is about half-and-half, recognizes the work but says we need more because my district's going to pay a lot of those taxes and I don't have enough to convince them it's good for them long-term with what's on the table, so I want to see it improved enough that I can go home and defend it," Ward said.

But Sloan, who is counted among the moderate Republicans, said Democrats in that second group are being unrealistic.

"You never fix things in perpetuity," Sloan said during a interview in his office.

Sloan said he promised voters during his last campaign that he would vote for restoring a three-tiered income tax system that would generate enough money to fund core public services. But he said most voters he spoke with do not want to return to tax rates as high as they were before the 2012 tax cuts that Brownback championed.

Given that, Sloan said he thinks Democrats should accept the fact that they are not going to get everything they want, and they probably are not going to completely solve the state's budget problems with one bill in one legislative session.

Ward, meanwhile, tried to downplay tensions with moderate Republicans, saying he believes the two groups will eventually come together.

"Everyone's going to calm down, as we will, because we really want to do the right thing for Kansas," he said. "We're going to get in a room and get to 'yes.' It may be today; it may be tomorrow. ... I see no reason to beat up on (moderates)."

At that point, though, Ballard interjected, saying: "They're beating up on some of our people too."

Continued here:
Tax vote exposes rift in the Democrat-moderate Republican coalition - Lawrence Journal World (blog)

Demonstrators march in the Texas Capitol on Monday. Photograph: Meredith Hoffman/AP

A group of Democratic state representatives on Monday accused a Republican of threatening to put a bullet in the head of a fellow lawmaker on the Texas House floor, as a raucous protest against a new state immigration law unfolded in a public gallery and legislators confronted each other.

The protest was against the recently approved bill SB4, an anti-sanctuary cities measure that compels local police under the threat of jail and removal from office to enforce federal immigration law. Opponents of SB4 have filed lawsuits against the bill, which Governor Greg Abbott signed earlier this month in a ceremony held without notice and broadcast only by Facebook Live.

Hundreds of protesters wearing red t-shirts and chanting lucha fight waved banners reading See you in court! and began cheering, blowing whistles and chanting from the gallery: Here to stay! and Hey, hey, ho, ho SB4 has got to go!

They were cleared from the gallery by state troopers but continued their protest inside the ground floor rotunda. In the chamber, representatives argued and jostled.

At an afternoon news conference, the Democrats said Republican Matt Rinaldi, from suburban Dallas, made the shooting threat towards Poncho Nevarez, a Democrat from the border town of Eagle Pass. Several Democrats said Rinaldi also bragged about calling Ice on protesters who interrupted a floor session, leading to a near-scuffle between Rinaldi and Democrat Cesar Blanco. The Democrats said Rinaldis comments about shooting came during a second altercation, moments later.

In a statement posted on Facebook on Monday afternoon, Rinaldi said Nevarez had threatened my life on the House floor after I called Ice on several illegal immigrants who held signs in the gallery which said I am illegal and here to stay.

Claiming that several Democrats encouraged the protesters to disobey law enforcement, Rinaldi continued: When I told the Democrats I called Ice, Representative Ramon Romero physically assaulted me, and other Democrats were held back by colleagues.

Rinaldi claimed to have been threatened twice more by Navarez and said he had made it clear that if he attempted to, in his words, get me, I would shoot him in self defense.

I am currently under [department of public safety] protection, he continued. Several of my colleagues heard the threats made and witnessed Ramon [Romero] assaulting me.

At the protest in the rotunda Leroy Pena of Dallas, a Lipan Apache Indian, held a sign reading: Governor Abbott, show me your papers. I am a 15th-generation Texan.

The protest was organized by activists who canvassed over Memorial Day weekend in Austin, informing anxious immigrants about the rights they retain despite the law and urged grassroots resistance against it.

One protester, Abril Gallardo, rode 15 hours in a van to attend, to urge fellow Hispanics to fight back. Fear motivated me to get involved, said the 26-year-old Mexican native who entered the US as an undocumented immigrant at age 12.

Opponents call the Texas anti-sanctuary cities law a show your papers law, since it empowers police to inquire about peoples immigration status during routine interactions such as traffic stops. City governments and immigrant rights groups have challenged the legality of the law, hopeful for a victory like one in Arizona, but such actions could take months to have any effect.

Originally posted here:
Texas Republican 'threatens to shoot Democrat' over immigration protest - The Guardian

By Susan Stamper Brown | May 31, 2017 | 12:40 p.m.

Democrats just lost another election, this time in Montana. Unless they are willing to do some down-on-your-knees, cry-out-to-Jesus soul searching, the only way theyll win another election is if they collude with the Russians to steal one the way President Donald Trump didnt.

Its going to take much more than an Olivia Pope-style scandal fixer to fix whats wrong with the Democratic Party. Putting a cowboy suit on an anti-gun, big government liberal like Rob Quist, who regularly does gigs at a nudist resort in Idaho, was about as effective as putting lipstick on a pig.

It was also a naked attempt to blanket a semblance of normalcy over a Democrat Party that better represents the characters in the Star Wars cantina scene than those on Main Street or Your Street, U.S.A.

Thats why Greg Gianforte won Montana's special election for the House of Representatives, despite being charged with assaulting a journalist one day prior.

After reading reports and listening to the audio of the altercation, I thought Gianfortes response was kind of sexy. Before the snowflake generation evolved, thats how manly men resolved their differences.

And still do, in places like Montana and Alaska, where men arent ostracized for being men. They duke it out, brush it off, shake hands and go on their way.

Republicans should be on guard that the leftist-controlled media are not there to get facts; they are there to get at them.

Reporters who just happen to have a recorder turned on will do their darnedest to bait politicians into physical altercations. As tempting as it might be, theres no place in politics for body-slamming obnoxious metrosexual snowflake reporters, or any other kind for that matter.

Democrats and the left-leaning media had nothing to say when in 2004, now-Sen. Al Franken, D-Minn., emerged from a crowd and body-slammed a guy who was trying to shout down then-Vermont Gov. Howard Dean. Democrats promoted that clown to senator but are outraged at Gianforte.

Lets not forget that the violent political climate propagated by todays progressive-left is to blame for fostering a culture of violence. Violence, not manly wrestling matches.

The Democrat Party is overrun by violent far-left extremists who regularly display their antipathy to things they dislike using violence. Setting fires, throwing Molotov cocktails, smashing windows, throwing rocks at police, destroying private property and physically attacking Republicans like what happened at Berkeley in February was the norm long before Trump arrived on the scene.

Normal Americans watching this appalling behavior have come to understand that, just like terrorists, these left-wing anarchists the Democrat Party harbors cannot be reasoned with, so defeating Democrats at the ballot box is Americas only hope.

Despite the barrage of Trump-Russia nothing-burgers the media cook up and dish out daily, regular Americans believe what the Democrat Party stands for is far worse.

Democrats are out of touch to believe that their globalist, gun-grabbing, anti-Christian, anti-free speech, anti-capitalism, Russian-boogiemen-around-every-corner, race-baiting platform of victimhood would win the hearts and minds of regular people.

Whats flabbergasting to Democrats is that Americas proverbial abused wife on the other side of the aisle has finally conjured up the courage to put her foot down and say, No more! Not in my house! No more to the lies ... no more to the abuse.

Shocking?

Only to those who refuse to take an honest look at themselves and the political party to which they associate.

Susan Stamper Brown writes about culture, politics and current events from her home in Alaska, and is syndicated by Cagle Cartoons. Contact her through Facebook or at [emailprotected]. Click here for previous columns. The opinions expressed are her own.

See the original post here:
Susan Stamper Brown: It's Time for Democrats to Get Real - Noozhawk

Charges are being dismissed against one of two suspects in the June 2016 arson death of Matthew Eldenburg.

Cody A. Harvey, of Sedalia, was charged in September 2016 with first degree arson and first degree murder, but those charges are being dismissed, according to Pettis County Prosecuting Attorney Phillip Sawyer.

A second suspect, Aran T. Cantrell, also of Sedalia, is facing the same charges, which will remain. Both suspects have been in the Pettis County Jail since their arrest.

Both Harvey and Cantrell requested change of venue and judge after entering not guilty pleas, and all requests were granted. Harveys case was set for a jury trial next week in Jackson County.

This morning it became evident to the Prosecutors Office that the admissible evidence was going to be insufficient to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Cody A. Harvey committed the charged crimes, and accordingly, charges against Mr. Harvey are being dismissed, Sawyer said in a news release issued Wednesday evening. We are limited in what we can say about the evidence because a case is still pending against Aran Cantrell, but the problem does not stem from any failure on the part of the (Sedalia) Police Department or any inadequacy in its investigation.

The police department and other law enforcement agencies did everything they possibly could to bring the investigation to a successful conclusion. The problem involves an essential non-law enforcement witness who has given false or inaccurate statements as to what took place in the case.

Cantrells case is set for a jury trial in Clay County in July. Sawyer said the evidence issue involves only the Harvey case and that he expects Cantrells case to be tried in July.

Eldenburg, 30, died in a fire at his South Grand Avenue home June 23, 2016. Sedalia firefighters found him during a primary search of the residence and paramedics tried to resuscitate him, but he was pronounced dead at Bothwell Regional Health Center two hours after the fire began.

Cantrell and Harvey were arrested by SPD about a week after the fire, which was ruled an arson by the Missouri State Fire Marshals Office, and charged with first degree arson.

It wasnt until September that first degree murder charges were added, as Eldenburgs autopsy results were needed. Pettis County Coroner Robert Skip Smith told the Democrat in September the results showed Eldenburg was alive at the time of the fire, making the case a homicide.

According to court documents, several witnesses identified Cantrell as a suspect. Cantrell told SPD detectives Eldenburg was unconscious on the couch, admitting to getting gasoline from the garage and pouring it on Eldenburg. He said an accomplice, identified as Harvey, lit Eldenburg on fire. Cantrell said he poured gas throughout the house and that Harvey lit the fire with the stoves natural gas turned on, both leaving the house once the fire began.

Harvey was then questioned by detectives, but he maintained he was not involved in the fire. However, he was unable to give an explanation as to where he was from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. June 23, and admitted to being in an argument with Eldenburg the night before.

Aran Cantrell

http://sedaliademocrat.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/web1_Aran-Cantrell.jpgAran Cantrell

Cody Harvey

http://sedaliademocrat.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/web1_Cody-Harvey.jpgCody Harvey

Second suspects trial set for July

Nicole Cooke can be reached at 660-530-0138 or on Twitter @NicoleRCooke.

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Charges dismissed for suspect in 2016 murder - Sedalia Democrat