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As President Biden continues to face questions about whether he should end his bid to seek a second term, there are growing signs that many in the Democratic Party are willing to accept the notion of Vice President Harris at the top of their presidential ticket, a potentially significant shift.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) is signaling to members that Harris would be the best option to lead the ticket if Biden chooses to step aside, said two people familiar with this thinking who spoke on the condition of anonymity to detail private conversations.

Rep. James E. Clyburn (S.C.), a high-ranking member of the House and a longtime Biden friend, has publicly said he would support Harris if Biden steps aside, adding that his fellow Democrats should do everything to bolster her, whether shes in second place or at the top of the ticket.

Tim Ryan, a former Ohio congressman and presidential candidate, said in an op-ed that while he loves Biden, Harris should be the Democratic nominee for president after Biden stumbled in a high-profile debate performance last week. Some other possible contenders including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and California Gov. Gavin Newsom probably wouldnt jump in the race this year and would support Harris if Biden were to remove himself from the ticket, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.

Democrats growing move to rally around Harris as a potential nominee almost always with the caveat that Biden remains the choice for now is a sign that they are gaming out a world without Biden as the partys standard-bearer, even as they try to blunt years of hand-wringing about Harriss ability to win the White House on her own.

That could remove one of the major obstacles Democrats have long seen to the notion of replacing Biden: the fear that it would result in a damaging political free-for-all as the partys most promising stars battle it out for the nomination.

Many Democrats were also worried that Harris would be a weak candidate, based in part on her ill-fated presidential run in 2020, when she was forced to drop out before a single vote was cast. But choosing someone instead of Harris, the first woman of color to serve as vice president, seemed politically untenable.

Now some in the party are rethinking the idea that Harris would flounder as the Democratic nominee, especially compared with Biden, given his struggles.

A CNN poll released Tuesday found that voters favor former president Donald Trump over Biden by six percentage points, 49 percent to 43 percent, similar to results from before the debate. But Harris performs better, trailing Trump 47 percent to 45 percent, a gap that falls within the margin of error.

And, some say, Harris could energize Democratic-leaning groups whose enthusiasm for Biden has faded Black voters, young people and women. Some progressives say she could win back some voters who are disenchanted with Bidens handling of the Israel-Gaza war.

Some of the shift in thinking is practical: With four months before Election Day on Nov. 5 and early voting beginning weeks before that picking anyone but Harris would represent a legal, political and financial minefield, according to interviews with more than a dozen political strategists and people close to the decisions of White House aspirants.

Choosing a new nominee outside the current ticket would raise questions about the status of the delegates whom Biden and Harris have won and the nearly quarter-billion dollars in their campaign coffers, money that cannot easily or perhaps even legally be handed to someone else.

Then there are the optics: Harris is the first Black woman to win a nationally elected office. Shunting her aside for someone White and possibly male could alienate the Black voters who the campaign says are key to winning the White House in 2024, and it could subject a party that prides itself on diversity to charges of hypocrisy.

Harris supporters also argue that many of the people often discussed as alternatives to Harris Whitmer and Newsom, along with Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Rep. Ro Khanna (Calif.), Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore are popular in their home states and in Democratic circles but remain untested on the national stage.

People want the president to be successful, but its unclear where were headed, said Jamal Simmons, Harriss former communications director. And so as people begin to ponder if we had to do something else, what that something else would look like, who that someone else would be, the math leads you to Kamala Harris.

While Harris has been singed by criticism, supporters say, she is a known quantity, both from her own presidential race and from her experience as the running mate on a 2020 Democratic ticket that faced withering attacks.

I dont know that Gretchen Whitmer going into Philadelphia is going to help turnout. I think Kamala Harris does, said Mike Trujillo, a Democratic strategist and former aide to Hillary Clinton. I dont know if Gavin Newsom goes into Raleigh, North Carolina, or Charlotte, North Carolina, that hes going to be able to turn out African Americans that are the base of the party. I think Kamala Harris can do that.

Equally important, according to some strategists, is that voters say they are uninspired by the current rematch of two elderly men who have already served in the White House; Harris would present a younger face and a symbol of change. Biden is 81 and Trump is 78, while Harris is 59.

Still, there are many within the party who are not yet persuaded that Harris can win. Not only did her one presidential campaign collapse in disarray, they say, but she repeatedly stumbled early in her vice presidency.

Harris struggled, for example, when Biden asked her to tackle the root causes of illegal migration to the United States by working with leaders of Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador to improve conditions there. (Harriss defenders say the president had handed her an impossible task.)

Others worry that Harriss reputation as a California liberal, accurate or not, could alienate White centrists in the Midwestern suburbs whom Democrats need to win. Some of these skeptics include major Democratic donors, suggesting that Harris could have a harder time than Biden raising campaign cash.

At the same time, Bidens aides have forcefully insisted for months that he is Democrats best or perhaps only chance of beating Trump, an assertion that has done little to bolster party members views of Harriss prospects.

Multiple Democrats who have said they would get behind Harris, however, point to her post-debate interview when she had to balance a defense of Biden and the shaky debate performance millions of viewers saw. That was a thankless job she had to do, and she did a very, very good job, one senior House Democratic aide said.

But overall, there are signs that a growing number of Democrats can now envision a relatively smooth transition to a Harris-led ticket, especially if Biden throws his support behind her.

Beyond party leaders, rank-and-file Democrats have also begun vigorously discussing post-Biden scenarios. One Democrat in Texas, slated to be a delegate to the partys convention in August, said it would be almost impossible at this late hour for someone like Newsom or Whitmer to win the nomination, then conduct a full-blown presidential campaign from scratch.

So the choices come down to Biden and Harris, this person said and Harris would be better.

As the only other option really being Vice President Harris, I think I would prefer that and prefer the challenge of trying to drive up polling and drive up support more than to keep support when we have a president going for reelection who may not have the best physical well-being, the delegate said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.

Amid the intensifying conversations among Democrats, there are signs that Harriss potential Democratic rivals are backing off or being encouraged to back off.

Whitmer would not run for president this year and would be all in for Harris, according to a person close to the Michigan governor. Newsom has also hinted that he would back Harris, a fellow Californian. California lawmakers say they dont believe hed run this year.

Its got to be Kamala at the top, and pairing her with someone new and dynamic and good could be super invigorating, said one California Democrat in the U.S. House.

A person close to Clyburn said the high-ranking Democrat had made his comments about Harris on MSNBC with the explicit goal of warning top Democrats against contemplating an alternate ticket not headed by Harris, should Biden step aside. Clyburn is an influential figure in the party, and other Democratic members have been sending a similar message to their colleagues who could be considering different rising stars to lead the ticket, according to a person who has been communicating this message.

Clyburn was expressing his support for the president during this extraordinary period, and reminding voters and donors alike of his steadfast support for the second name on that ticket Vice President Harris, said Marcus Mason, a member of the Democratic National Committee.

Harris has so far refused to engage in any of the public strategizing. Since the debate, she has been Bidens defender in chief, telling any camera in sight that voters should look at Bidens successful 3 years in office, not his 90 minutes of struggling in a debate.

In an interview with CBS News on Tuesday, Harris declined to answer a question about whether she is ready to lead the country if Biden is unable to, saying rather that she is proud to be Joe Bidens running mate.

Look, Joe Biden is our nominee, Harris said. We beat Trump once, and were going to beat him again. Period.

Bidens camp has said any discussion of a possible replacement is moot, since he is not pulling out. His campaign has tried to convince anxious supporters that despite a stumbling debate performance, he remains easily the best choice atop the party.

Jen OMalley Dillon, Bidens campaign chair, told donors at the Ritz-Carlton in Atlanta on Friday that nothing fundamentally changed in the race despite the furor over the debate. And the campaign has touted strong fundraising numbers in the days since.

Joe isnt just the right person for the job, first lady Jill Biden said at a Saturday fundraiser in East Hampton, N.Y. Hes the only person for the job.

Many Democrats privately say they like Harris personally and as a symbol of change, but they wonder how a politician who has at times struggled in the brightest spotlight would contend with a potentially bruising campaign, one that could feature racist and sexist dog whistles and perhaps more overt bigotry.

Harriss supporters argue that her last two years have shown more strides than missteps. She became a leading voice on abortion rights after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022, seizing on a central plank in the Democratic platform and one that Biden sometimes seems uncomfortable discussing.

Harris has traveled the country to attack Republicans for eroding Americans rights, courting conflict with some of the GOPs most vocal antiabortion voices. She has met with dozens of global leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky half a dozen times, developing a foreign policy portfolio she had earlier lacked.

Just as salient, supporters say, Harris is at the intersection of many of the principles Democrats say they stand for: diversity and inclusion, gender and racial equity. Some Democrats are coming to the conclusion that divorcing her from the ticket might speak louder than any campaign ad or messaging.

At this moment, women feel under assault on abortion, said Simmons, Harriss former communications director. People of color feel under assault on diversity and inclusion. It would be difficult to pick a ticket that does not include the first woman of color to be vice president.

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Democrats begin to consider Harris at the top of their ticket - The Washington Post

As of early Wednesday morning, President Biden had called just one congressional leader personally in the wake of his faltering debate performance: Hakeem Jeffries.

That the president chose Jeffries is perhaps not surprising. The New York Democrat may be the only thing standing between Biden and a flood of panicked House Democrats few of whom have so far gone on the record demanding the president exit the race, hopefully saving their chances of regaining the slender House majority in the process.

On Wednesday evening, Jeffries led a tightly controlled conference call of House Democratic leaders as concern over Biden ricocheted on and off Capitol Hill. According to four people who either participated on the call or were briefed on it, the leader mainly listened, as some panicked participants worried about Bidens electability and said the president should step aside. Some argued, however, according to one person on the call, that it would be too messy to replace him. Jeffries acknowledged being concerned about Bidens situation but held his fire, according to one person familiar with the call.

So far, the would-be House speaker has succeeded in stemming a tide of defectors calling for Bidens exit after a debate last week in which the president noticeably stumbled at times, spoke in a thin voice, mumbled words and occasionally looked confused. It was a performance that drew immediate worries among Democrats concerned about his age and perceived fragility among voters.

There was a real effort of the leadership team to keep unity, if not unanimity, said a lawmaker on the Wednesday evening call attended by members of House Democratic elected leadership.

Jeffries asked his leadership team to keep talking with each other, their colleagues and their constituents and to stay in touch.

Amid the mounting storm, Jeffries has remained careful and steady.

As he has for every big decision, once again, Leader Jeffries is in listening mode, taking the time to hear members about the impact in their districts and carefully assessing the path forward, said Rep. Ann Kuster (D-N.H.), the head of the moderate New Democrat Coalition. Patience is a virtue. Democratic unity is top of mind for our leadership.

Jeffries has not asked lawmakers to defend the president, according to multiple members who have spoken directly with him. But he has asked them to give Biden the grace to make his own decision about whether to remain in the presidential race. Jeffries has reminded Democrats not to act irrationally, and to allow this week to play out before making any statements. He prefers hashing things out as a group when Democrats return to Washington next week.

The story of how Jeffries is handling perhaps the biggest political crisis of his House leadership hes only been in the job a little over a year and a half is based on interviews with roughly a dozen House Democratic lawmakers and over a dozen aides, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk extensively about ongoing private conversations within the caucus regarding their partys president.

The rapidly moving news has once again thrust Jeffries into the middle of a defining moment. But unlike helping Republicans fund the government, averting a debt crisis or sending critical aid to foreign allies, Jeffries is navigating uncharted and very choppy waters four months out from Election Day.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Bidens aides are insisting he wont step aside. Biden press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters that the president was absolutely not dropping out of the race.

And it seems like Jeffries, at least for now, would prefer that his members not ask Biden to.

Only two House Democrats Reps. Lloyd Doggett (Tex.) and Ral Grijalva (Ariz.) had publicly called for Bidens exit, though several others have tread a middle ground in saying Biden cant beat Trump in November.

Its a delicate position for Jeffries, who is expected to be speaker if Democrats retake the House majority caught between a Democratic president and his own fretting, angry members.

Hakeem is a big part of the Democratic unity weve shown for the past two years. So when hes ready to provide guidance on this question, I am certain that many members will be glad to receive it and will probably find it very persuasive, said Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), who was not on Wednesday nights call.

Over the past few days, House Democrats said they felt gaslit by the White House and Biden campaigns weak reassurances that everything remains fine, and some fear the relationship between House Democrats and the president is irreparable.

Worried House Democrats are circulating draft letters that call on Biden to step aside. Democrats are informally brainstorming how to run their races without Biden at the top of the ticket in a flurry of group texts. Above all, most remain focused on their No. 1 goal: a House Democratic majority, which requires reminding voters on the campaign trail what a Democratic House was able to accomplish under a Democratic administration.

When donors ask Jeffries what to do, he directs them to channel their concerns into House races. He has tried to reassure all Democrats who have reached out to him in calls or texts that the House can serve as a backstop to a potential Republican Senate and White House, though people familiar with his thinking stress he does not mean to infer that Biden will lose the election.

Jeffries and other leaders are aware that a wave of private frustrations could soon spill into public view. Two centrist Democrats Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) have predicted Biden will lose to Trump. After officials insisted Biden would stay in the race, Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), a liberal, expressed late Wednesday his grave concerns about Bidens ability to defeat Donald Trump.

Winning will require prosecuting the case in the media, in town halls, and at campaign stops all over the country. President Biden needs to demonstrate that he can do that, Moulton said. When your current strategy isnt working, its rarely the right decision to double down. President Biden is not going to get younger.

Jeffries has managed to contain the defections thus far, often reminding colleagues in numerous communications that they cannot undo something once its been said publicly.

In typical Jeffries style, he has spent the week gathering input from across the caucus so he could accurately reflect the mood in calls with White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients and other officials.

Despite the chaos, Jeffries has largely been able to keep members united and optimistic about their chances of winning back the House majority. Democrats need to clinch four seats to do so, and members acknowledge that Jeffries is eager to become speaker.

Jeffriess listening style and frequent communication with members is what many believe has led colleagues to be deferential to his guidance. In a Tuesday evening call with the most vulnerable Democrats up for reelection known as the frontliners Jeffries heard from frustrated members who raised their concerns over Biden and his ability to stay in the race.

One member who spoke with Jeffries on Wednesday noted that while many Democrats are circulating letters or discussing going public, they did not want to get ahead of their leaders public statements and feel confident he shares the concerns we all have.

Beyond expressing caution, members say that Jeffries has not been explicit in either defending or championing Biden.

I didnt get any indication that he was someone who was trying to silence anyone, Golden said, who was one of the first Democrats to hear from Jeffries behind closed doors after the debate Friday and has not heard from anyone in leadership since declaring Biden would lose to Trump in an op-ed.

Jeffries hasnt disagreed with members that Vice President Harris would be the best option to lead the ticket if Biden chooses to step aside, said two people familiar with this thinking who spoke on the condition of anonymity to detail private conversations. But he is not openly contemplating that scenario.

In the days after the debate, Jeffries in public remarks acknowledged the reality of Bidens disappointing debate performance. But he did not break with the president.

At a New York fundraiser that raised $3 million for House Democrats, Jeffries asked former president Barack Obama how voters should view Bidens performance which he called a setback making way for an opportunity for a comeback. Obama replied that politics was a team sport and that winning back the House majority should be sufficient motivation for donors to support the Democratic ticket.

During a speech in Hartford, Conn., over the weekend before roughly 1,000 attendees, Jeffries reiterated his position, adding that Trump was an existential threat to democracy. He praised Biden for being a good man, a family man, an honorable man who is up against a con man.

The Democratic Party stands on the side of freedom, Jeffries said in a keynote speech. The Democratic Party will always stand on the side of truth, which is why its an all-hands-on-deck moment to win in November. Because the stakes are too high for us to do anything, other than pour our heart and our soul into victory on Nov. 5, all across the board.

Democratic strategists working to flip the House have advised candidates to continue talking about the issues and counseled them to navigate the Biden situation however they think is necessary in their district.

Rep. Nanette Barragn (D-Calif.) praised Jeffriess leadership style in an interview, calling him a listener who governs with a sense of keeping us all united and to do it very calmly. She added that he was among the best messengers in the Democratic caucus.

But another Democratic lawmaker groused that there was a lack of effort to gather House Democrats as panic-stricken members privately express grave concerns about Bidens ability to stay the course.

We havent had a single caucus meeting or call since the debate, the lawmaker said.

Its for that reason many Democrats know next weeks caucus meeting Tuesday morning will be a momentous test of Jeffriess ability to wrangle emotional lawmakers privately airing their opinions together for the first time.

Some House Democrats are upset with the Biden campaigns argument that they should back the president because the elections stakes are so high, considering that argument condescending. Many lived through the Trump administration and understand the stakes after surviving the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection in the Capitol while Biden and his top officials were not in office. The Supreme Courts decision to grant immunity to a presidents official acts has further reinforced fear of Trump winning the election.

One Democratic frontliner who spoke with the Biden campaign over the weekend said they were shocked to hear officials still defending Bidens performance as a bad night and insisting the president is ready to serve. This frontliner complained that campaign aides failed to provide a clear road map demonstrating how the president would show Americans he is capable of the job. Another frontliner said that campaign officials reached out on Friday, largely to ensure they wouldnt speak out against the president, which they did not find reassuring.

What uniformly had irked Democrats was Bidens lack of communication with Jeffries. That all changed Wednesday evening but a handful of Democrats considered it too little too late.

Its untenable for him to be the nominee if half of his own party in Congress is saying he should go, a senior congressional aide said.

Josh Dawsey and Liz Goodwin contributed to this report.

Original post:
Jeffries seeks to stem House defections, for now, as Democrats panic over Biden - The Washington Post

Democratic leaders in the House and Senate refrained on Wednesday from urging their members to rally around President Biden and were instead listening to a barrage of complaints streaming in from both the partys centrist wing and its progressives.

The private message from congressional leaders was that members should feel free to take whatever position about Mr. Bidens candidacy was best for their districts, according to several people involved in the conversations who insisted on anonymity to discuss them.

For some, that meant joining the trickle of elected Democrats who have blasted the presidents performance and either called on him to withdraw or suggested he should seriously consider it.

Representative Ral M. Grijalva of Arizona became the second Democrat in Congress to urge Mr. Biden to leave the race, following Representative Lloyd Doggett of Texas, who made his call on Tuesday.

If hes the candidate, Im going to support him, but I think that this is an opportunity to look elsewhere, Mr. Grijalva said in an interview. Referring to the president, Mr. Grijalva added: What he needs to do is shoulder the responsibility for keeping that seat and part of that responsibility is to get out of this race.

Other Democrats were not ready to go that far, but hinted they were gravely concerned about Mr. Bidens ability to serve and win re-election.

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Democrats in Congress Weigh Whether to Stick With Biden - The New York Times

Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Texas, as seen at the Capitol on June 5, 2024. Doggett is the first congressional Democrat to publicly call for President Biden to quit his reelection bid. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images hide caption

Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Texas,, became the first congressional Democrat to call for President Biden to withdraw from his reelection bid, issuing a statement saying that Biden had failed to reassure voters in last week's presidential debate and was trailing his Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump.

Biden, 81, badly stumbled in the debate, seeming at times to lose his train of thought, and struggled to defend his record. He and his campaign have insisted that he would stay in the race and make a comeback despite calls from some Democrats and donors to step back and let another party leader run instead.

In remarks at a fundraising event in McLean, Va., on Tuesday, Biden blamed his debate performance on a punishing travel schedule through many time zones. He had gone to Europe twice in two weeks in June, and also spent time at a Los Angeles fundraiser.

"The fact is that you know, I wasnt very smart," Biden told donors, quipping that he "nearly fell asleep on stage."

Biden and his campaign have been in damage control mode since the debate. This week, that continues. Biden will meet on Wednesday with Democratic governors some attending in person, and some by Zoom. He is separately making calls to congressional leaders.

On Friday, he plans to campaign in Wisconsin, with ABC anchor George Stephanopoulos in tow. And next week, at the NATO leaders' summit in Washington, D.C., Biden will give a full-fledged news conference, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said.

Jean-Pierre said Biden "had a cold and a bad night" at the debate. She said that the White House had been transparent about his medical records. Asked directly if he has Alzheimer's disease, dementia or another degenerative illness, Jean-Pierre curtly said, "no."

"I hope you're asking the other guy the same exact question," she said, referring to former President Donald Trump, 78.

Asked about Rep. Doggett's call, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said that the congressman was entitled to his opinion. It is a big-tent party," she said. The Biden campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Immediately following the debate, most House Democrats struggled with how to respond, with many acknowledging the presidents poor performance, but none publicly saying he needed to step aside. But five days later, a new CNN poll showed most voters think Democrats have a better chance with another nominee, and there are signs some Democrats are more willing to break with the White House.

President Biden speaks about extreme weather at the DC Emergency Operations Center in Washington, DC, on July 2. Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images/AFP hide caption

Doggett, who represents a safe Democratic district, said that Biden was trailing Trump in most polls. I had hoped that the debate would provide some momentum to change that. It did not, he said in a statement.

"Instead of reassuring voters, the president failed to effectively defend his many accomplishments and expose Trumps many lies," Doggett said.

Top congressional Democrats like former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn, who helped Biden get the 2020 nomination, took to the airwaves over the weekend to defend Biden and pledge support.

But on Tuesday, Pelosis tone appeared to shift, and she opened the door to other Democrats to raise concerns about the presidents ability to continue.

"I think it's a legitimate question to say, is this an episode or is this a condition?" Pelosi said in an interview on MSNBC. "When people ask that question, it's completely legitimate of both candidates."

Ian Krager, a spokesperson for Pelosi, in a written statement to NPR, said, Speaker Pelosi has full confidence in President Biden and looks forward to attending his inauguration on January 20, 2025.

Earlier on Tuesday, Rep. Mike Quigley, D-Ill., expressed public reservations about the impact on downballot Democrats.

I think his four years are, you know, one of the great presidencies of our lifetime. But I think he has to be honest with himself. This is a decision hes going to have to make, Quigley said on CNN.

He clearly has to understand that his decision not only impacts whos going to serve in the White House the next four years, but whos going to serve in the Senate, whos going to serve in the House, and it will have implications for decades to come, he said.

Two other House Democrats said on Tuesday that they think Trump will win in 2024: Maine Rep. Jared Golden and Washington Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. Both represent swing districts.

"We all saw what we saw, you cant undo that, and the truth I think, is that Biden is going to lose to Trump," Gluesenkamp Perez said on Portland's KATU News.

Golden wrote an op-ed in the Bangor Daily News, and dismissed Biden's argument democracy would be in peril if Trump returns to the Oval Office.

Golden wrote, Democrats post-debate hand-wringing is based on the idea that a Trump victory is not just a political loss, but a unique threat to our democracy. I reject the premise. Unlike Biden and many others, I refuse to participate in a campaign to scare voters with the idea that Trump will end our democratic system.

The House GOPs campaign arm was quick to criticize most Democrats for keeping their opinions about Biden mostly to themselves, or in background quotes to journalists.

The cowards in the Democratic caucus have spent every day after the debate in witness protection, too afraid to say what theyre all thinking, said Jack Pandol, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Americans remember House Democrats were complicit in covering up and gaslighting the public about the presidents condition, and voters are primed to punish them in November, Pandol said.

Democratic strategists have pointed out that Democratic incumbents in key Senate contests have been outperforming the president in polls for weeks. House Democrats in many swing districts at least for now appear to be seeing the same dynamic, but more calls could come from lawmakers if dramatic changes in internal and public polls emerge in the next few days.

Read the original:
Rep. Doggett calls on Biden to withdraw. He's the first Democrat in Congress to do so - NPR

There are a lot of pundits and reporters and sources out there speculating about what an open competition to become the Democratic nominee for president would look like, should Joe Biden be convinced not to seek reelection. (Thats a possibility thats looking ever so slightly more likely with each hour that passes, and each report about mandatory napping that is published.)

Theyre talking Gavin Newsoms, theyre talking Mayor Petes and Governor Whitmers, theyre leaking polling data about who would do best head-to-head against Donald Trump its a free-for-all. But there are other pundits and sources out there trying to shut that discussion downand frankly being a little smug about itby saying that it would be nearly impossible in that case for the nominee to be anyone but Kamala Harris. Some are doing this because they would want the nominee to be Harris. Others just think its a political reality and speculating otherwise is frivolous and fanciful.

Its admittedly an easy argument to make. Harris is the vice president, the presidents legal successor. Theres no law that says shed have to succeed him on the ballot; vice presidents can be replaced on a ticket, although it hasnt happened since the Truman administration. Still, were Biden to announce that he was releasing delegates at the Democratic National Convention in August to vote for someone else, it would not be surprising if he then endorsed Harris, which would likely carry a lot of weight with delegates whod been planning to vote for her already as veep.

There are plausible reasons for Biden to head off a competition by giving such an endorsement. It would prevent rivals for the nomination from attacking each other and revealing damaging information or other weaknesses that could be exploited by Republicans. Harris (but not other candidates) would have direct control over the $200 million-plus raised by the Biden/Harris campaign committee. Thats a lot of moneyand money is important.

By virtue of her current position, out of all the potential candidates, she also probably has the most existing relationships with important donors and party officials. She would be positioned to secure immediate support because many of these people know and trust her (see her as their best route to access and status in the next administration). A smooth succession would prevent the emotional stress and potential brand damage inflicted by intraparty chaos (rude quotes attributed to a Democratic insider).

Heres something to consider, though: Emotional stress and intraparty chaos are not that big of a deal. Feelings are usually hurt in primaries, and who cares? It rarely (never?) results in long-term damage to the resulting nominees. There has never been a whinier Democratic primary than the one held in 2008, and Barack Obama won the general election that year in a landslide over John McCain. Later, Trump seemingly alienated many Republicans by trashing McCain during the 2016 primary. Trump went on to win the general election. Then McCain died and Trump said he was probably in hell.

Theres also the possibility that Democrats try to hand the nomination to Harris only for things to go sideways. Harris 2020 presidential campaign was a notorious mess that ended with a falling-out between her and her advisers. Shes had similar problems with staff turnover in the White House. Several of the sources in Wednesdays Reuters story about her inevitability spoke with a tone of resignation, not excitement, about the possibility of her candidacy. (When the people in charge of making a decision say it would be nearly impossible not to make a bad one, perhaps it is time for them to do some self-reflection about their own agency.)

If a candidate is selected in an open process, Democrats are even more likely to quickly rally behind them. As a Twitter thread by Aaron Regunberg of the watchdog group Public Citizen observed, the imperative to find a candidate who has one sole qualificationbeing able to beat Trumpis already motivating a cross-ideological movement to replace Biden, uniting centrists, liberals, leftists, and whatever Ezra Klein considers himself to be. It is a climate that would be uniquely friendly to any candidate besides the current one. (As Jonathan Alter writes in the New York Times, Biden could also threaten to withhold his eventual endorsement from any other Democrat who engaged in negative campaigning or other chaotic behavior.)

Lets assume that Dems untangle themselves from their current plan to hold a virtual July nomination vote for arcane formal reasons related to Ohio ballot access. A competition culminating in the convention would also have major upside: It could benefit the partys moral standing, which is arguably important, and generate huge earned media, which is definitely important.

The partys leaders have been insistent to the point of pedantry that democracy is on the ballot in the race against Trumpand now they have a chance to act like it! Whenever the question is asked in a poll, large percentages of voters say they would like to see a major-party candidate besides Trump or Biden. (Half of respondents in a Pew poll said both candidates should be replaced.) Thousands of delegates deliberating (on television) to select such a person would be a substantive response to those voters, and proof that democracy does actually matter to Democrats. The event would further direct national attention onto the new nominee, who would likely have also completed a gantlet of interviews, appearances, and risky TikTok drug-consumption challenges that honed and validated their camera-readiness. It would be a name-recognition bonanza.

And it would also be very good for creating clicks for news and opinion websites that have been suffering from reader fatigue after the pandemic and the chaotic Trump years. Please, our families are starving!

See more here:
Joe Biden withdrawal: Why Democrats should have an open convention. - Slate