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On the first weekend after the Supreme Court overturned nearly five decades of constitutional abortion rights, Democrats seized on the ruling to portray their Republican opponents as threats to women and their health care providers, while two sitting G.O.P. governors welcomed the decision, as they tried to emphasize that the matter is a local issue with more debate to be had.

Stacey Abrams, the Democratic nominee for governor in Georgia who is in a rematch with the Republican she narrowly lost to four years ago, told CNNs State of the Union, that the public should take into very real consideration the danger Brian Kemp poses to the life and welfare of women in this state.

Ms. Abrams also told CNN that Mr. Kemp intends to adds incest and rape as prohibitions.

Tate Mitchell, a spokesman for Mr. Kemp, said in a statement that Ms. Abrams is lying and that Mr. Kemp supported the states law that includes exemptions for rape, incest, life of the mother, and ectopic pregnancies.

Ms. Abrams also appeared on Fox News Sunday, and said, We cannot cherry-pick when we pay attention to the lives and safety of women.

After noting Mr. Kemp refused to expand Medicaid in Georgia, Ms. Abrams said, He has refused to support women at every stage of their lives when they are trying to make the best choices for themselves and their families.

The CNN anchor Jake Tapper said Mr. Kemp had been invited to appear on the show. Mr. Mitchell said Mr. Kemp was unable to appear because he was at the Georgia Municipal Association conference in Savannah.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Democrat of Michigan, told CBSs Face the Nation that state lawmakers had already introduced legislation to criminalize and throw nurses and doctors in jail if they perform abortions.

And legislators, she said, endorsed a 1931 law making abortions in the state a felony as have all of the Republican people running for governor. They want abortion to be a felony: no exception for rape or incest. Thats the kind of Legislature that Im working with. Thats the kind of matchup Im going to have this fall.

Republican governors on the Sunday shows, while welcoming the courts ruling, repeatedly emphasized that the debate and discussion around this issue will continue, framing it as a matter of states rights.

Gov. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas said on NBCs Meet the Press that although the ruling was something the pro-life movement worked for over 40 years to achieve, we have to remember, this not a nationwide ban on abortion. Every state will have the ability to make its decisions.

Later, Mr. Hutchinson tried to assuage concerns that other rights could be rolled back: This is not about contraception. This is not about same-sex marriage: a very limited decision on this particular issue of abortion.

And it is very important right now to assure women that the access to contraception is going to be able to continue. Later, when asked if, as president, he would sign a national law outlawing abortion, Mr. Hutchinson, who is considering a run in 2024, said no.

I dont believe that we ought to go back to saying there ought to be a national law thats passed. We fought for 50 years to have this return to the states. Weve won that battle. Its back to the states. Lets let it be resolved there.

Another Republican, Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota, told ABCs This Week that the Supreme Court ruling was wonderful news, and that her state would now ban abortions except to save the life of the mother. But I anticipate therell be more debate and discussion because the ruling gave the authority back to the states to make these decisions.

When asked what would happen if a South Dakota resident traveled to another state to get an abortion, Ms. Noem replied, That certainly isnt addressed in our statute today and so I think thats things that therell be debate about but also, were having lots of debates in South Dakota.

Read more:
How Democrats and Republicans explained the Roe fallout on Sunday talk shows. - The New York Times

Midwestern states are battling to be bumped up to a coveted early slot in the Democratic presidential nominating calendar, jump-starting what election watchers say could be a big shake-up ahead of the 2024 election.

Michigan, Minnesota and Illinois are among the states hoping to exert more influence and help diversify a lineup led by the largely rural and predominantly white states of Iowa and New Hampshire that many Democrats say doesnt represent the partys true strength.

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has announced 17 finalists to be among the first four or five, including Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois and all four current early primary states. State party officials began drafting proposals earlier this year and are set to make their cases to the bodys regulatory committee later this month.

Proponents of Michigan and Minnesota point to them being critical swing states that helped elect President Biden. Geography matters too, they say. If Iowa gets the boot from its traditional role as the first-in-the-nation caucus state, either state would provide an alternative in the Midwest.

There needs to be a Midwest state, Michigan Rep. Debbie Dingell (D) told The Hill in an interview. Were the heart of the country.

After going for former President Trump by a slim margin in 2016, Michigan flipped back to blue four years later to give Biden enough Electoral College votes to help win the presidency.

I was one of the people that told people that Donald Trump would win Michigan in 2016, and, by the way, people in both parties thought that I was crazy, and I think it stunned a lot of people, Dingell said. It is a purple state, and we do decide who the presidents going to be.

Im not interested in presidential candidates testing the waters in my state. Im interested in seeing the candidates answers to the questions that voters care about, she added.

Democrats see an advantage to having a generalelection battlegroundgo earlier in the process, arguing that theres value in showing voters the kind of candidates who can win in the fall, even a year or more ahead of the next presidential race.

The economy is diverse, the population is diverse, the geographical population is diverse, the educational levels are diverse, said John Anzalone, one of Bidens top pollsters who works on Michigan elections.

If youre a presidential candidate looking to be tested with a bunch of different universes of voters, its really perfect, he said.

Michigan Democrats are expected to pitch their case to the DNCs Rules and Bylaws Committee, the governing force that decides the order of the calendar, on June 23.

As part of their case-building, they recently sent a letterto the national party listing reasons they believe the Great Lakes State is best suited to appear on the early roster. The memo was signed by Dingell and the rest of Michigans congressional delegation.

Minnesota is also high on Democrats list of considerations. It currently leans blue, but also has a strong independent streak that state party officials believe can be beneficial to voters.

In 2016, it awarded Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) a momentum-boosting win over Hillary Clinton, which temporarily changed the narrative that progressives cant catch on in geographically diverse areas. Clinton took Minnesota in the 2016 general election and in 2020 Biden won the state over Trump.

Our state is a true microcosm of the country, said Ken Martin, who chairs Minnesotas Farmer-Labor Party and serves as the vice chairman of the DNC.

Martin has been closely involved in navigating the complicated process each presidential cycle. As president of the Association of State Democratic Committees, hes seen the importance of bringing new perspectives into the conversation that set the tone and direction for the election.

Martin believes Minnesota, which currently votes on Super Tuesday, brings together diverse racial and ethnic communities, a strong agriculture industry and the presence of rural Democratic voters. He also praised the strong union and business footprint.

Presidential candidates who can bring all of these voters together and win in Minnesota would be well positioned to win across the country, he added.

Adding to the intrigue, a third state, Illinois, has also thrown its hat in the ring. Officials there recently submitted their pitch to the DNC, also citing the states unmatched diversity in the Midwest.

That diversity would strengthen candidates campaign messaging and tactics for both the primary and general elections, because winning in Illinois requires building the kinds of broad-based coalitions necessary to win the Electoral College in November, the state party wrote.

Biden was the overwhelming favorite in the Prairie State in 2020, outcompeting Trump by double digits. That could ultimately work against its chances of moving up, as many Democrats are openly expressing a desire for a battleground to serve as a test run ahead of the eventual Democrat vs. Republican match-up.

Still, others see the upside overtaking any potential shortcomings. An official with the state Democratic Party listed recent Democratic gains there as reasons for the national party to consider its bid.

We really have a blueprint here for national candidates and how to translate Democratic values and Democratic campaign tactics into persuading voters, turning them out and winning, said Jake Lewis, deputy director of the Illinois Democratic Party.

We are a bigger state. We understand that, Lewis continued. But Democrats have to win big states.

We vote to be able to win big states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and so testing Democratic candidates early on their ability to organize in bigger states and their ability to organize in bigger cities in a city like Chicago, its really important, he said.

Even as newcomerstry outfor a spot, the original first four are working to keep their places on the calendar.Election strategistssay that may be hardest for Iowa.

Democrats have long lamented the states prominence in the process, pointing to its lack of racial diversity and its rightward tilt in recent years. The highly public debacle in 2020, when atechnology malfunctioncauseduncertainty among voters and problems for party officials,may have been the final push to retool the calendar.

But supporters of Iowa keeping the electoral status quo are fighting to maintain its first-in-the-nation status, saying the state has played a defining role in previous races that sent more liberal candidates to the White House.

There wouldnt have been a President Obama without Iowa, said Ross Wilburn, chair of the Iowa Democratic Party.

But they are open to making a significant change. Another major criticism of the caucus process is that it excludes anyone who may not be able to spend multiple hours at the event on a cold, winter night. TheDes Moines Registerreported earlier this month that state party officials have put forward a plan where voters wouldsend inpresidential preference cards in advance.In an attempt at compromise,the results would be announced on the original caucus date, but the voting process itself would be closer to a traditional primary.

And for officials such as Wilburn, the states small size is an asset. I understand other states wanting to be part of the process, but our presidential nominee cannot be decided by large media markets and candidates who just have larger dollars, he said.

We have an affordable television market, and a candidate who doesnt have the funds necessarily or the notoriety nationally, initially, they can campaign here in Iowa. Theres great grassroots strength. Our friends and neighbors help inform the messaging of presidential candidates, he said.

See the original post here:
Midwest Democrats jockeying to come out on top in primary calendar shake-up - The Hill

Leaving aside, for now, possible Election Day consequences if the U.S. Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, or further damning revelations in the House Bill 6-FirstEnergy scandal, Ohio Republicans are sitting pretty as the state slogs into Campaign 22. The primary election for state legislative offices will be held on Aug. 2, the general election on Nov. 8.

Republican Gov. Mike DeWine and Democrat Nan Whaley, once Daytons mayor, are vying for the governorship. And Republican J.D. Vance, a Middletown native, and U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, a suburban Warren Democrat, are competing to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Rob Portman, of suburban Cincinnatis Terrace Park.

There are facts that separately favor Republicans in each contest.

Fact one, as to DeWine-Whaley: The last time Ohioans retired a Republican governor was in 1958. But voters have since retired three Democratic governors Govs. Michael V. DiSalle in 1962, John J. Gilligan in 1974, and Ted Strickland in 2010.

Fact two, as to the Vance-Ryan contest: Since Ohioans began to directly elect senators in 1914 by sending Marion Republican Warren G. Harding to the Senate there have been 10 Senate races in which, like this years, neither Ohio nominee was the incumbent. Republicans won nine of those contests. The exception: 1974, when Democrat John Glenn beat the GOPs Ralph Perk, then Clevelands mayor.

True, in Ohio elections, as in all things, history isnt necessarily destiny. As the great historian Gordon Wood wrote, If history teaches anything, it teaches humility. So, at this stage of their campaigns, Whaley, for governor, and Ryan, for the Senate, stand every chance of besting DeWine and Vance, respectively. But to the extent the past can suggest patterns, theyre each going to have to campaign extra hard, and extra widely, in Ohio.

Also on the statewide ballot are races for attorney general, state auditor, secretary of state and state treasurer. Republicans hold those posts now, and unless a scandal erupts, or someone dumps a ton of money into the campaigns of Democratic challengers for those offices, the Republicans who hold them now are likely to be holding them next year.

Meanwhile, in the struggle for the Ohio General Assembly, Republicans are well-positioned again, absent further seamy revelations about the HB 6-FirstEnergy affair.

Even if newly drawn General Assembly districts werent biased in favor of the GOP and they are Republicans running for Ohios House and state Senate hold a huge fundraising edge over Democrats.

Thats long been true at the Statehouse: Once a General Assembly caucus is in the minority (as state Senate Democrats have been since January 1985, and Ohio House Democrats since January 2011), its members basically become legislative spectators, not bill-passers. The people who fund campaigns, though, are usually looking for bill-passers, not bystanders. The lobbies are interested in results. And only a majority caucus can produce those.

Beyond DeWine-Whaley and Ryan-Vance, this years pivotal contests for people who ... invest ... in state government will likely be the race for three state Supreme Court seats.

To recap: Republican Chief Justice Maureen OConnor, who sided with Democrats in this years fight over legislative districts, is retiring. Competing to succeed OConnor are Democratic Justice Jennifer Brunner and Republican Justice Sharon Kennedy.

Seeking re-election are Republican Justices R. Patrick Pat DeWine, the governors son (challenged by Democratic 1st Ohio District Court of Appeals Judge Marilyn Zayas of Cincinnati), and Patrick Fischer (challenged by Democratic 10th Ohio District Court of Appeals Judge Terri Jamison of Columbus).

Ohio Supreme Court contests have become even more critical for both parties: Because of Ohios redistricting mess, this years wrestling match over General Assembly lines will play out again in 2023 and 2024 because the General Assembly districts used in this Novembers election will depending on more courtroom jousting be redrawn again for 2024s election.

Whether Brunner or Kennedy is elected chief justice, Mike DeWine would appoint a Republican to the remainder of either justices term as an associate. Thatd leave the court 4-3 Republican. But if Democrats unseated Pat DeWine or Fischer, thatd make the high court 4-3 Democratic and leave utilities, insurance companies and the General Assemblys GOP caucuses very unhappy. They like things the way they are. But do ratepayers and policyholders?

Thomas Suddes, a member of the editorial board, writes from Athens.

To reach Thomas Suddes: tsuddes@cleveland.com, 216-408-9474

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The odds, and the money, are against Ohio Democrats in the fall: Thomas Suddes - cleveland.com

Analysis

10:00

by Joel Kotkin

Fly, you fool. Credit: Getty

There is no question that the Democrats are going overboard on the staged theatrics surrounding the horrific events of January 6th. This is a clear attempt by the Party to revive their electoral prospects this autumn, but they may well end up undermining the only man who can save them: Donald Trump.

The hearings already face diminished ratings. After the first day, audience figures fell by 50% and seem unlikely to persuade most fair-minded people that January 6th was anything like the insurrection its painted as. What emerges instead is a confirmation of mass stupidity by addled MAGA activists set in motion by a cheerleading Chief Executive.

Trump certainly bears his share of the blame for January 6th but not as an organiser of a coordinated rebellion in the historic sense. A coup? Without guns and no military or police support? Mussolini, he is not. January 6th lacked the focus and planning of the March on Rome and theres certainly nothing of the organised violence that facilitated the Nazi rise to power. Instead, Trump comes off as a hopeless narcissist unwilling to accept his loss even when presented with the facts by his most reliable advisors.

What is catching up with Trump is not his fascist leanings but his pathetic character as an overaged Baby Huey. Progressives and Democrats revel in the idea that the GOP is now a tool of Trump as the unassailable il duce. But in reality, the ex-President is not getting stronger, but weaker. His poll numbers, even among Republicans, have weakened, as more members claim to identify with their party rather than its titular leader. Trump does not retain the respect and loyalty that Ronald Reagan, for example, maintained among a broad part of the party.

Trumps paranoid, personal style so evident in the hearings is no longer unchallenged inside the party. This year his record of endorsements, particularly in hotly contested races, is mediocre. His loss in Georgia, against state officials he desperately wished to topple, was particularly revealing. Last week in South Carolina, he was only partially successful in his drive to expel disloyal house members. There are even signs that he may have lost the support of the Murdoch empire.

This is not to say that Trump might not win the GOP nomination, which would be a disaster for the party and country. Even though Trump still leads the field, its likely much of the party would favour figures like former Vice President Mike Pence, Floridas Ron DeSantis or South Carolinas Tim Scott or Nicky Haley. For many, a Trumpista policy agenda without the diversions of Trumpian insanity may prove appealing.

As for the rest of us, its clear that we are fed up with both of the flawed alter cockers who have run this country into the ground. Over 70% of Americans would prefer that neither one runs again.

But we may be forced to accept this choice. If as in 2016 the opposition to him is divided, Trump can skate to victory with 30% of the Republican primary vote. This would give the Democrats a rallying point that they will sorely need, particularly if their likely candidate is an ever more debilitated Joe Biden or the remarkably unappealing Kamala Harris. Indeed, even amid the awful performance of this Administration, Trump polls about even with the likely Democratic candidate.

The hope here is that sentient elements in the Republican Party can stop Trump from ruining what could be a historic opportunity to stop the more extreme progressive agenda. At the same time, the GOP can be recast as the voice of the middle and working class. In this, the Democrats may be helping by placing emphasis on Trumps personal awfulness. If Trumps image continues to fade, even to the point of caricature, the GOP may end up thanking Nancy Pelosi for saving their party from itself.

More:
Trump is the Democrat's secret weapon - The Post - UnHerd

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and its allies, meanwhile, only made a small investment at the end, despite requests from members to get involved earlier.

I hope the DCCC learns their lesson with this before it happens across the country, said Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, who due to redistricting will face GOP Rep.-elect Mayra Flores this fall in a redrawn district.

They have just forgotten about the brown people on the border, Gonzalez continued. And thats basically what it is. Im not going to try to sugarcoat it anymore. They are taking Latinos in South Texas for granted.

When the House convened Wednesday afternoon, several members approached DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney. Democratic Reps. Sylvia Garcia and Veronica Escobar, whose Texas districts are also predominantly Latino, were among them. Garcia said she requested a meeting next week and that Escobar, Gonzalez and fellow Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Joaquin Castro all plan to attend.

I dont know that its an intervention, but its gonna be a hard talk, she said. Its going to be a good, healthy family discussion.

Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) speaks during a news conference with fellow congressional Democrats in the Lyndon B. Johnson Room at the U.S. Capitol on September 9, 2019.|Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Gonzalez isnt waiting until next week. He stopped Maloney for a one-on-one conversation on the steps of the Capitol, where he could be heard pleading for the party to step up its investment in a region increasingly skewing toward Republicans and he warned that the loss could have been prevented.

Senior Democrats, including Maloney, say the situation is more complicated. They argue the GOP spent heavily for a symbolic, short-lived victory because the seat will disappear due to a redistricting quirk. The new version of the district will be much more winnable for Democrats.

Look, I think the Republicans spent millions of dollars to win a seat thats going away. Were going to win this seat when it matters, Maloney said in a brief interview. You never like to lose, and I understand why people were upset by that. I think Republicans burned a lot of money, and were going to end up with that seat.

But while the loss of this soon-to-disappear version of Texas 34th district is temporary, the trend it represents is growing more and more concerning for Democrats. The resounding win by Flores a health practitioner and wife of a border patrol agent marks the first flip of the midterm cycle for Republicans, and it also hands them a unique messenger as the GOP looks to capture more border and majority-Latino districts in November.

Republicans seized on the victory, declaring it a preview of Democratic losses to come in November particularly in their one-time stronghold in South Texas. Not only did Flores handily defeat the Democrats candidate, Dan Sanchez, but she also showed how far the GOP has encroached on formerly blue territory in just a few years. In a handful of counties, Flores ran dozens of points ahead of Trumps marks in his first bid for office in 2016. She even narrowly carried Cameron County, a longtime base of Democratic support.

Republicans across the state were jubilant: South Texas has been a Democrat stronghold for over a century. To see South Texas move Republican is a seismic shift, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said in a brief interview after Flores, whom he endorsed, won.

Democratic leaders said the GOPs win was unfortunate but stressed that the DCCC must be selective about where and when it will invest, especially given the current districts will only exist for the next few months.

I think we made the judgment that it was pretty much a Republican seat, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said in a brief interview when asked about the partys decision not to prioritize the race. When asked if the party would spend significantly there in November, he said, Were going to invest heavily in every seat we think we can win.

Even so, many rank-and-file Democrats, particularly Latinos, were outraged that their party had missed an opportunity to gain ground with voters that were moving away.

The moment you start getting people to say, Well, its ok to vote Republican, then the next time will be easier, said Cuellar, who will be defending his own South Texas turf in November against whats expected to be an onslaught of GOP spending.

The DCCC needs to sit down and look at South Texas seriously, Cuellar said. I dont think its a political realignment, but this should send a message to the DCCC ... You cant take Hispanics for granted, which they always do.

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) speaks during a campaign event on May 4, 2022, in San Antonio.|Eric Gay/AP Photo

Most Democrats still believe that Gonzalez can keep the redrawn version of the seat in November, but they worry the GOPs victory this week will provide a huge morale boost that will be hard to undo.

The DNC, the DCCC and all the Democratic national groups really need to take a hard look at what happened, Garcia said. I realize this is a special, but its still given the Republicans a narrative to say: We flipped a seat. And we should have done better.

It was a sentiment felt across the Texas Democratic delegation.

There is absolutely no logical reason why we should be losing any of these seats, Escobar said, while lamenting the DCCCs decision not to spend in the race.

I dont agree with that strategy, she said. I think its always important to invest in elections like that because I think there are consequences to that narrative. And its deeply concerning to me.

National Democrats didnt entirely ignore the special election: House Majority PAC, a super PAC with close ties to Speaker Nancy Pelosi, made a six-figure buy one week before the election. But many Democrats felt it came too late, and some privately complained that the ad attempted to tie Flores to conspiracy theories related to the Jan. 6 insurrection in the U.S. Capitol.

Republicans pounced on what they saw as an obvious Democratic messaging flop.

Our guys were talking about inflation and the economy and crime and the border. What were they talking about? Jan. 6, said Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), who runs the House GOPs campaign arm.

The borders a big deal, and theyre not doing anything about it, the National Republican Congressional Committee chief said. We are actually more in touch with the voters than our colleagues on the other side of the aisle.

Republican polling of the district, conducted in mid-May by Meeting Street Insights, found that the most important issue for voters was border security and immigration (35 percent), followed by inflation (28 percent).

Flores and GOP outside groups slammed Democrats as having a weak border security policy that has led to more crime in the region.

I think our historic disinvestment caught up to us, said Rep. Chuy Garca (D-Ill.), who represents a majority-Latino district in the Chicago area. Were on our heels, and we need to invest heavily.

The GOPs latest surge in South Texas comes as alarm bells were already ringing for Democrats.

House Republicans were shocked in November 2020 at what happened along the Texas border. Three Rio Grande Valley districts that Hillary Clinton had won by double-digits only narrowly backed President Joe Biden four years later. Gonzalez just squeaked by in his bid for reelection in his McAllen-based district.

In 2022, Republicans planned to target all three of those districts, held by Gonzalez and Democratic Reps. Filemon Vela and Cuellar.

Vela gave them an early opportunity when he announced he would resign from Congress before the end of his term, prompting a special election in his district under the current lines. The GOP seized its chance.

The NRCC polled the district in April and found Flores leading Sanchez by 5 points, with 41 percent undecided. The committee helped Flores raise $231,500 in donations from Republican members of Congress. And working with the Texas GOP, the NRCC pumped $1.1 million into the district across multiple platforms.

The committee spent $200,000 on a coordinated TV ad buy with the Flores campaign, while the state party made a large transfer. Both groups invested in get-out-the-vote efforts, including digital ads, texting and robocalls. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC, polled in mid-May and found Flores at 34 percent. It then invested some $200,000 on digital and TV to increase her profile.

Republicans concede the district will become harder in the fall. But they are thrilled to have Flores as a strong ambassador for the GOPs values in new territory.

You have a spokesperson who happens to be Hispanic, female and from the Valley, said Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), who joined Flores to campaign.

I can go down and I can have the same message, he said. But I think it is much more powerful and much more palatable and attractive, and some people who would tune me out will give her just enough time.

The rest is here:
Latino Democrats vent their fury after foreboding special election loss in Texas - POLITICO