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April 21, 2022

April 21, 2022

There are plenty of reasons that President Biden and the Democrats are in trouble this November. The lingering pandemic and worsening inflation are up there, but the inability of congressional Democrats to capitalize on their narrow majorities in the House and Senate has been just as consequential. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has mostly kept her caucus in line, but in the Senate, two Democrats Joe Manchin (W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.) are almost single-handedly responsible for torpedoing Biden's presidency.

And it may be prudent for Democrats to move on from them.

There is no legal mechanism to expel these miscreants from the party. But there are growing strategic reasons why Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and his allies should make life so unbearable for Manchin and Sinema (both of whom aren't up for re-election until 2024) that they leave the party sometime before the 2022 midterms if one last push for even a microscopic version of the Build Back Better social investment package fails because of them. Go on a judicial confirmation binge first, but don't be delusional about what can be achieved with Manchin playing impossible to get in what looks like a plan to run out the clock on behalf of his fossil fuel overlords.

First, Schumer could announce that the Democratic Party will not support re-election bids for Manchin and Sinema and will actively side with their primary challengers. Second, the paircould be stripped of their committee assignments, after which Biden could deliver a speech arguing that Democrats who deliberately sabotage their party over and over again are not welcome in the big tent. The DNC could formally censure both senators, as the RNC did with GOP Reps. Liz Cheney (Wy.) and Adam Kinzinger (Ill.) due to their support for the impeachment of former President Trump.

It is hard to imagine either Manchin or Sinema refraining from a party switch in the aftermath of such public and dramatic rebukes. After all, the fragile Manchin hardened his opposition to the president's signature legislative goal after his feelings were hurt by a December White House statement in which Jen Psaki accused him of "a sudden and inexplicable reversal in his position, and a breach of his commitments to the president." In early February, Manchin declared the framework "dead."

I know what you're thinking: That's deranged! Why would Schumer and the Democrats willingly give up their Senate majority? Wouldn't that be passing control of the Senate majority to Mitch McConnell and the Republicans without even putting up a fight?

The best retort is that Democrats do not really haveworking legislative control of theSenate anyway. While Manchin and Sinema have occasionally roused themselves out of torpor to vote for things like the Bipartisan Infrastructure package, their votes have been needed on only a few important occasions like the COVIDrelief bill from March 2021 and the 50-50 votes to make appointments to the National Labor Relations Board. You can throw in the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Jackson Brown, too, even though she got two Republican votes, since McConnell would have probably invented some kind of "no confirmations in the spring before a midterm election year" rule to prevent even giving her a committee hearing.

Are those achievements sufficient to justify the extraordinary amount of damage that has been done to the Democratic brand over the past year, almost all of it inflicted by Manchin and Sinema on their own party? Considering that Jackson will get outvoted 6-3 or 5-4 for the next 20 years, that the electoral glow from the American Rescue Plan faded months ago, and that the single most important piece of it increasing the child tax credit and turning it into an automatic monthly payment was allowed to expire by these same Democrats, I would argue no.

It air-fries my blood just gazing at the list of missed opportunities to transform America into a more equitable and livable country. Here is a partial list of things that have not happened almost exclusively because of Manchin and/or Sinema's opposition: a federal minimum wage hike;an extension of the Child Tax Credit payments;paid family and medical leave;D.C. statehood;voting rights protections;a ban on partisan gerrymandering;universal pre-K and subsidized daycare; and investments in encouraging adoption of clean energy technologies and electric vehicles.

But is that frustration worth the obvious downsides of voluntarily sacrificing the Senate majority this way? After all, onceManchin leaves the party or loses his seat in the Senate, it is likely gone for a generation. There is not one other Democrat roaming the Mountain State, which Trump won in 2020 by nearly 40 points, who could come anywhere near winning, let alone run a competitive race. PushingManchin out of the Democratic Party permanently changes the already tough calculus for securing a Senate majority.

There is no such problem withSinema. Arizona now sports two Democratic senators, and its ongoing demographic transformation will likely work in Democrats' favor in the long term, despite this year's difficult national environment. Losing her seat now might mean going without it for just two years, at a time when Democrats are likely to be in the minority anyway. Sinema has almost no chance of winning her Senate primary, and the country is too polarized now for her to run and win as an independent la Joe Lieberman in 2006.

What about the Democratic legislative agenda in the Senate? Won't it be sunk by handing the majority back to Republicans? It's a great question, to which I would respond: What legislative agenda? The two people who are holding it up are in the headline of this article, and neither has given any indication recently that they intend to budge.

Finally, let's be clear-eyed about the bleak landscape facing Democrats. If the election were held today, Republicans would easily win the House, the Senate, and a number of swing-state governorships. One recent poll showed that for more than two-thirds of respondents, non-economic issues are the most important facing the country, with a plurality citing "the government/poor leadership." That sounds a lot like frustration with the failure of Congress to act on key priorities, or any priorities at all.

Democrats can't run against themselves here, because most people don't care whether it is two or 50 of them holding up the show. The only way to rail against the "do-nothing Senate"is to make Republicans the villain, and the only way to do that is to give them a branch of government to play with for a few months. Make Mitch McConnell the face of Congress' refusal to act after the Supreme Court guts Roe v. Wade,as well as forhis branch'sinability to take radical action, like price caps, to battle inflation.

Do I thinkDemocratsshould do this before exhausting every possible effort to get Manchin on board with any piece of legislation that could be called Build Back Better? Obviously not, but I'd rather take the 10 percent chance that this gamble works rather than the 99 percent certainty that Democrats are going to get blown out of the water in November if they play out the string begging for scraps from other members of their own party. A handful of federal judges and some solar panel tax credits are going to seem pretty hollow when Democrats are staring down years in the Senate wilderness.

And if there's one sure thing about going on the warpath against Manchin and Sinema, it's that it would at least momentarily fill that void.

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Should Democrats force out Manchin and Sinema? - The Week

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Fox News host Brian Kilmeade told viewers on Saturday's "One Nation" that he found something President Biden "perfected" during his time in office: the "unforced error."

BRIAN KILMEADE: Well, the Democrats are down right now, there's no denying it. Perfecting the art of the self-inflicted wound. Throughout time, presidents, both Republican and Democrat, have had to deal with things that were pretty much out of their control. But how they act and react to the uncontrollable is what truly decides what kind of leader they will be, what makes or breaks them. Case in point: Abraham Lincoln. He decided to save the Union. He saved the country. It cost him his life. FDR answered and inherited depression with the New Deal and answered a Japanese attack on our homeland by declaring and winning the war, World War II. And when you think of Ronald Reagan, think of steadfast. Reagan was able to stare down communism and win the Cold War in doing so. The president of the United States has been anything but great so far during his first almost two years in office, but we have found something that he has perfected. It's called the unforced error.

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The bipartisan infrastructure bill, he struck out by going with the all-or-nothing approach. So we didn't get Build Back Better. He was going to do the infrastructure bill. He didn't get Build Back Better, but he did the infrastructure bill. What about his record on inflation we're seeing impacting the amount of money in your pocket. The president thinks it's just transitory. Remember his botched Afghanistan withdrawal when he thought the Afghan army was one of the strongest in the world? What about the administration somehow missing the wave on COVID variants?

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Kilmeade: Democrats perfected the 'art of the self-inflicted wound' - Fox News

As the May 17 primary draws near, Oregon Democrats and Republicans are making sure voters understand the differences between the two parties. A big one: educational attainment.

This week, Portland pollster John Horvick of DHM Research drew on 2020 census data to illustrate the wide variance in college graduates among Oregons 60 House districts. As of 2018, the year about which census takers asked, the median level of college graduates across all districts was 34%. But every district above that level belonged to a Democrat.

Its part of the education polarization thats happening in Oregon and across the country, Horvick says. I think its worth pointing out that the Democratic Party in some districts is really pulling away from the median voter.

In addition to the differences between parties, the numbers show big spreads among Democrats. House District 22 (Woodburn) had the lowest college graduation level (14%) but is solidly Democratic.

Here are the five districts with the highest percentage of college graduates:

1. House District 33 (Northwest Portland, Northeast Washington County)

Rep. Maxine Dexter

72%

2. House District 38 (Lake Oswego, Dunthorpe)

Rep. Andrea Salinas

71%

3. House District 36 (Southwest Portland)

Rep. Lisa Reynolds

66%

4. House District 43 (Northeast and North Portland)

Rep. Tawna Sanchez

61%

5. House District 42 (inner Southeast Portland)

Rep. Rob Nosse

59%

Sources: DHM Research, U.S. Census Bureau, Oregon Legislature

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New Census Data Shows the Most Educated Districts in Oregon Elect Democrats in and Around Portland - Willamette Week

U.S. Rep. Fred Upton, R-St. Joseph, said Sunday that he believed Republicans would flip the Democrat-controlled House in the fall midterm elections, but the party may experience"troubled waters" if themajority it gains is a slim one.

Upton, Michigan's most senior lawmaker in Congress, spoke during an appearance on NBC's 'Meet the Press,' weeks after he announced his plans to retire at the end of his current terminstead of running in the newly redrawn 4th District against U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga of Hollandwho was endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Upton was first elected to office in 1986.

A Republican majority after the November elections may be slightly higher than the Democratic Party's current margin in the House, Upton said, but it likely would not be a "wild swing" in the GOP's favor.

Bipartisan cooperation, such as in the House's Problem Solvers Caucus of which Upton is a vicechair, will thenbe "so important" as the next Congress deals with issues such as immigration, energy, inflation and the debt ceiling.

"It's going to be an early, early test in the next Congress," said Upton.

There are currently 221 Democratic and 209 Republican representatives in the House. If Republicans win back a majority butsit on fewer than 230 seats, the moderate conservativesaid, "it will be very hard to govern, for Republicans," especially with the far-right elementof his party with members like Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Georgia, that he said is "really not a part of a governing majority."

Upton was one of 10 Republican representatives who voted to impeachTrump followingthe Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, a move which resulted in death threats against him. He said threats of that nature would deter potential candidates, "good people,"from running to replace him and in other districts.

"It puts you at risk, particularly when they threaten not only you, ... but when they threaten your spouse or your kids. ... That's what really makes it frightening,"said Upton.

Upton also addressed Russia's ongoing warwith Ukraine, stressing the need for theUnited States tohelpUkraine and referencing a European trip he and representatives went onto meet with U.S. allies and Ukrainian refugees.

"Let me just tell you, the Ukraine folks (are) so brave, they are fighting for us. ... We have to make sure that they have every tool to make sure that they can survive," he said.

Chuck Todd, host of "Meet the Press,"then said it sounded like Upton thought "we can do a little bit more," to which Upton responded: "We can."

halbarghouthi@detroitnews.com

@HaniBarghouthi

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Upton on 'Meet the Press': House will flip, but 'troubled waters' may be ahead for GOP - Detroit News

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WASHINGTON Fending off the Republican advance in South Texas this fall was already going to be a taller-than-usual order for Democrats. But few Democrats anticipated it would be this hard.

Thanks to a succession of self-inflicted choices, fallout from redistricting and some flat-out bizarre circumstances, Democrats are confronting a mind-numbing set of complications in their fight to hold on to three seats in South Texas. And national polling indicates Democrats have no room for error if they want to hold off a Republican challenge in a region that was once a historical Democratic stronghold.

The seats in question are held by U.S. Reps. Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen. A third vacant seat recently belonged to Filemon Vela of Brownsville, who stepped down to take a private sector lobbying job.

For Democrats, there may simply be too many fires to put out at once, national political analyst David Wasserman, of the Cook Political Report, said to The Texas Tribune.

Democrats have been united and energized in recent days in their opposition to Gov. Greg Abbott ordering security checks of trucks crossing the U.S.-Mexico border, a move that has ground trade in the region to a halt.

But they have multiple other vulnerabilities to contend with: In the 28th Congressional District, the FBI raided Cuellars home and campaign just ahead of his primary campaign. (His attorney has since said that Cuellar is not the target of the investigation.) In the neighboring 15th Congressional District, Gonzalez is vacating his once-safe, now-ripped-apart-by-Republicans district for safer ground, making it even harder for Democrats to hold on to his old seat. And in the 34th Congressional District, Vela abruptly resigned late last month, setting off a summer special election that could put a Republican incumbent on the ballot for that seat in the fall.

Going back to the 1980s, these three neighboring districts have traditionally made up South Texas, a region of the state with a high proportion of Hispanic voters that has leaned left politically. Emerging from the Rio Grande, each district stretches from border town population centers north through ranchland.

Each of the South Texas districts has some unique circumstances, but they could all add up to a big headache for Democrats and make it more difficult to retain control of the House, said Nathan Gonzales, a political analyst and publisher for Inside Elections.

Nationally, Democrats have a slim margin of control in the House, and even losing one South Texas seat could jeopardize Democrats hold on the gavel. Currently, there are 23 Republicans and 12 Democrats in the Texas U.S. House delegation.

Per Wasserman, who rates the competitiveness of U.S. House races for a living, Democratic circumstances are becoming dire.

President Biden's anemic approval ratings with Hispanic voters and on the immigration issue could already be putting TX-15 out of reach (now that it's a Trump seat), and the FBI raid and a Vela-triggered special election are massive distractions for Democrats in TX-28 and TX-34, respectively, he wrote in an email to the Tribune.

House Democratic operatives say theyre ready for the fight.

Monica Robinson, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said there are challenges and opportunities in South Texas and Democrats are not taking anything for granted.

Were confident in our Democrats in South Texas and our ability to run smart, nimble campaigns that will win in November, she added.

Vela came to office in 2012 after a fresh round of reapportionment created the new 34th District.

He announced in March 2021 that he wouldnt seek reelection in his district. But he upgraded his retirement announcement to a full-blown resignation on March 31, vacating his office nine months earlier than expected.

That move set off what will be a confusing special election in which the winner will hold the seat for only a matter of months, while creating an opportunity for Republicans to gain an advantage for the main event in November where they will face a more difficult district.

District 34 was redrawn by the Legislature last year to be a more safe seat for a Democrat, making it the Republicans hardest South Texas target in November. If the new map had been in place in 2020, President Joe Biden would have carried the district by 16 points.

But Velas exit means there will now be a June 14 special election that still adheres to the old district map, where Biden won by only 4 points, which could make it easier for a Republican to win. If a Republican wins the special election, it could boost their name recognition when they compete again in November.

Democrats are now dealing with a resulting scramble in South Texas.

Gonzalez is running for Velas open seat in November after switching districts because redistricting tilted his district boundaries toward Republicans. Gonzalez already declined to run in the special election, given that he is still a sitting member of Congress.

Theres also little incentive for other Democrats to run for the special election. At best a candidate would be able to hold the office for a few months while not being allowed to run for reelection for the full term in November, since that primary has already been settled. Gonzalez won the Democratic primary for Velas seat in March.

I wish we had a member till the end of the year, Gonzalez said in an interview. But it is what it is, and under the circumstances we gotta deal with what we have.

Republicans, meanwhile, are giddy about the special election contest. The GOP nominee for the two-year term, Mayra Flores, is in the race.

We see an opportunity to try and pick off this seat in the special, said Dan Conston, the president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the Republican super PAC that controls much of the partys House campaign general election spending.

And if Mayra Flores wins, it gives her a significant jump-start of a fall campaign against a weak candidate in Vicente Gonzalez, he added.

For Republicans, the stakes are historic: Should Flores win the special election, she will become the first Republican Latina elected to Congress from Texas. If thats the case, her fall campaign against Gonzalez would mark the first member-versus-member federal race in Texas since 2004, when Republican U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions defeated Democratic U.S. Rep. Martin Frost for a newly drawn Dallas seat after a mid-decade round of redistricting.

It is unclear how much Democrats will spend on a special election.

Why would we want to spend a boatload of money for an election that is meaningless? Texas Democratic Party Chair Gilberto Hinojosa said of the special election in an interview. Theres not a doubt anywhere that Vicente Gonzalez is going to be sworn in in January of 2023.

The most formidable Democrat running in the special election is former Cameron County justice of the peace and commissioner Dan Sanchez, who announced his own campaign last week.

Gonzalez, who will face Flores in November for the two-year term no matter what comes to pass over the summer, predicted a Democratic victory in the special election that will take the wind out of the sail of most of the Republicans in South Texas, after we win that special.

Itll be a preview of whats coming in November, he added.

For his part, Vela said hes not worried that his exit will hurt Democrats chances for retaining the seat.

Vicente is going to slaughter Mayra Flores in the November election, Vela said in an interview on his last day in Congress. I dont think its going to be even near close.

Flores responded in kind via text: Congressmen Vela and Gonzalez will find out the hard way that South Texas Hispanics know the national Democratic Party has abandoned us in favor of radical policies that harm our communities.

First elected in 2016, Gonzalez ran for Congress when the 15th District was once a safe Democratic seat.

This past fall, Republican state lawmakers gutted that original 15th District in redistricting, turning it from a seat Biden narrowly carried in 2020 to one that Trump would have won by almost 3 points. Gonzalez secured the 34th District nomination on March 1.

The destabilization of the 15th District is a direct result of Republican redistricting. Gonzalez did not flee his old seat for a friendlier one. Republicans did it for him, drawing a conspicuous peninsula out of the 34th District to bring in the Gonzalez residence, separating him from nearly all of his old constituents.

Members of Congress dont have to live in their districts, and his move leaves behind an open-seat race for the 15th District, now the most endangered Democratic-held seat in Texas.

The Republican emphasis is on the 15th District, demonstrated by GOP nominee Monica de la Cruz Hernandezs designation as a House GOP Young Gun, or top-tier candidate. GOP activity could expand further, though, as campaign committees are known to add candidates to these lists over the course of the cycle.

Two Democrats are battling it out in the May runoff: attorney Ruben Ramirez and businesswoman Michelle Vallejo.

Vallejo has the backing of state and national groups and politicians, including EMILYs List, U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, U.S. Rep. Sylvia R. Garcia of Houston and state Reps. Terry Canales of Edinburg and Mando Martinez of Weslaco. Ramirez has endorsements from Gonzalez, Vote Vets PAC and the Blue Dog Democrats, a group that pushes for moderates. Both candidates have union endorsements.

More broadly, Gonzalez told the Tribune that national Democratic groups were failing South Texas Democrats. He called the DCCC, a member-driven institution with which he has clashed in the past, asleep at the wheel when it comes to South Texas.

But there is an equitable amount of Democratic frustration on Capitol Hill for having to deal with the open-seat race and the Vela vacancy.

DCCC staffers say the committee has hired two staffers in the 15th District and the committee is in the process of expanding that staff and opening a headquarters there as well.

And then there is Laredo.

In January, the FBI raided Cuellar's home and campaign office. The FBI has yet to elaborate on why it conducted the raids so close to the election, a highly controversial move by the Department of Justice.

Cuellar has proclaimed his innocence. But six weeks later, he found himself in the first Democratic runoff of his congressional career.

Cuellars attorney Joshua Berman told the Tribune that a DOJ official told him that Cuellar was not the target of the investigation. The DOJ did not comment when asked to verify the claim.

But it was not merely the ugliness of an unexplained raid. For the last three years, liberals have been trying to chase Cuellar out of office and spending big against him. Their candidate is attorney Jessica Cisneros, who challenged Cuellar two years ago.

She is at the vanguard of the progressive left in Texas, but she is running in a district where many Catholic voters do not agree with her social positions particularly on abortion.

Its not so much a problem that there would be no incumbent running, its that Cuellars rival could be too far left for the general electorate, said Wasserman, the political analyst, reflecting a consensus that Republicans privately hold.

Cisneros campaign manager Regina Monge said pundits like Wasserman have it all wrong.

Voters like Jessica because shes independent, not accepting a dime of corporate money and represents change from the status quo. Shes focused on the issues that matter to South Texans: health care and good jobs, she said.

Republicans Cassy Garcia a former staffer to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and activist Sandra Whitten are currently in a runoff election for the GOP nod to take on whomever wins the Cuellar-Cisneros nomination fight. Garcia recently picked up an endorsement from U.S. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.

House Republicans argue Democrats South Texas problems are rooted in policy. Ever since Democrats underperformed in 2020, a widespread consensus settled on the notion that positions like defunding the police and the Green New Deal from out-of-state politicians did significant damage to the party in South Texas.

South Texas has become Democrats worst nightmare, wrote House GOP campaign spokesperson Torunn Sinclair, blaming Democratic policies on the border, energy and economy in an email to the Tribune. Trends show South Texas is already leaning Republican, and Democrats have done nothing to reverse the trend, and their policies are making it worse.

Moses Mercado, a Washington-based Democratic lobbyist who grew up in the Rio Grande Valley, blames Republican control of redistricting for much of the South Texas turbulence.

This is their dream, he said of Republican ambitions in South Texas. They created the mess.

What is clear: Both parties are organizing here in ways they have not before. National party staffers are on the ground, and the cheap television markets will likely feature political commercials on loop by September.

Were changing how we do business in South Texas this cycle, said Robinson, the House Democratic campaign spokesperson. The DCCC is reaching voters earlier than ever before, were being intentional about how we communicate with Hispanic voters in the Valley and were resuming in-person organizing after Democrats put public health over politics in 2020.

We cant wait to welcome you in person and online to the 2022 Texas Tribune Festival, our multiday celebration of big, bold ideas about politics, public policy and the days news all taking place just steps away from the Texas Capitol from Sept. 22-24. When tickets go on sale in May, Tribune members will save big. Donate to join or renew today.

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Democrats are in danger of losing three congressional strongholds in South Texas - The Texas Tribune