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Democrats spent Wednesday trying to explain away a disappointing loss in a Florida special congressional election that they had been expected to win.

The takeaway from the special in Florida is that Democrats will need to invest heavily in a national field program in order to win in November. Nearly 50,000 fewer people voted in the special than in the 2010 general election, a 21% drop off, officials at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) wrote in their daily morning memo.

Already facing a difficult task in reclaiming the House majority, some Democrats said the loss in a district that President Obama won twice should serve as a warning sign that the partys voter-turnout operation is rusty and is endangering the Democratic majority in the Senate.

In private meetings, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and top lieutenants told lawmakers that the race would not define the midterm elections in November, also pinning the defeat on a dismal turnout effort, according to aides and lawmakers in the meetings.

Its a disappointment, I wont pretend it isnt, said Rep. Gerald E. Connolly (D-Va.), exiting a House Democratic Caucus meeting that Pelosi tried to keep focused on staying the course toward the midterms. Its a loss, its a disappointment. Its not the end of the world. And I dont know that it tells you a lot about the complexion of the election in November of this year.

Republicans openly mocked the Democratic effort to explain the results.

Its very significant, by any objective standard, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said in an interview, citing the Republican candidate David Jollys first-time candidacy and record as a Washington lobbyist as reasons he should have been defeated. Democrats fielded a former statewide official and spent more money than the GOP, while Jolly focused relentlessly on Obamas handling of the Affordable Care Acts implementation.

Its an indication the American people in a swing district, or arguably a blue district, might want to go in a different direction, McConnell said.

The Jolly victory came just days after GOP strategists were privately mocking the quality of his campaign. It put Democrats deeply on the defensive because their candidate, 2010 gubernatorial nominee Alex Sink, ran what party officials considered a textbook campaign by pledging on camera in TV ads that ran heavily that she would work to fix parts of the health-care law but not entirely repeal it.

Her campaign message is expected to be repeated over and over by Democratic challengers in GOP districts throughout the nation, as well as by four key Senate incumbents who voted for the 2010 health-care measure. The fate of those four senators, all running in states Obama lost in 2012, is likely to determine the balance of power in the Senate, where GOP candidates are clear favorites in at least two states and would need four more to claim the majority.

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Democrats pinning Fla. special election loss on dismal turnout effort

Running on empty? What midterm message will inspire Democrats to vote in November?... NBC/WSJ poll: Christie has net-negative rating with his OWN party Hillarys overall numbers also have dropped (though not as dramatically) Also in the NBC/WSJ poll: 60% of Catholics say Pope Francis has renewed their faith and commitment in the Catholic Church But poll also shows that21% of all respondents say religion DOES NOT play that important of a role in their lives -- the highest percentage ever in the poll... And Pot Nation: NBC/WSJ poll shows Americans think marijuana is less harmful than tobacco, alcohol, and even sugar.

Running on empty?

Democrats dont believe they lost Tuesdays special congressional election in Florida because of President Obama or the health-care law. The reason they lost it, they argue, is because their side didnt turn out to vote. In FL-13 special, 49k fewer voted than in 2010 general (-21%), and 158.5k fewer than 2012 (-46%). Addressing the Dem drop off is key for Nov, Alex Sink pollster Geoff Garin tweeted yesterday. But heres the fundamental question for Democrats: What do they run to get their folks to the ballot box? What inspires them? Right now, they dont seem to have a message that galvanizes their voters, especially in a midterm election. According to our NBC/WSJ poll, 88% of Democrats say theyre more likely to vote for a candidate who supports the minimum wage, and 75% are more likely to vote for someone who supports fixing and keeping the health-care law. But its hard to imagine Democrats are going to flood the polls in November screaming, WE WANT TO FIX AND KEEP THE HEALTH-CARE LAW! especially when the Obama White House isnt screaming that message every day. We know what galvanizes Republicans -- its repealing the health-care law, its President Obama, and its cutting spending. That explains why Republicans had such an easy time getting their voters to the polls Tuesday. What inspires Democrats? Of course, they could -- and will -- run on a message against congressional Republicans. Then again, that was essentially their message in 2012. But what FL-13 exposed is that Democrats dont have an affirmative message that is sticky with the Democratic base or even casual Democratic voters. They have figured out how to deal with health care, but thats not enough to actually inspire their own side.

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Your 2016 Fix

Christies decline hasnt stopped:: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie finds himself in the unenviable position where his poll numbers are now upside down with -- get this -- REPUBLICANS, according to the latest NBC/WSJ survey. Just 23% of GOP respondents in the poll have a positive view of Christie, versus 29% who have a negative view. In our previous poll in January, Christie was in positive territory with a 32%-20% score. Christie also is now underwater among Northeast respondents (28%-35% -- when it was 31%-30% in January), and hes upside down with conservatives (22%-26% -- when it was 27%-20% two months ago). Overall, Christies fav/unfav score is 17%-32%. The scandals hitting his administration first hurt his crossover appeal among Democrats and independents, and now theyve hurt him with his own party. Folks, when is the last time someone viewed as a presidential contender had a net-negative rating WITH HIS OWN PARTY? Yes, its possible Christie can recover; you never say never in politics. But Christies prospects right now are much worse than some in the political community realize. And thats before all the investigations into his administration run their full course.

Hillarys numbers also have dropped (though not as dramatically)

Hillary Clintons numbers also dropped in our NBC/WSJ poll, though not as dramatically as Christies. Her fav/unfav rating stands at 44%-34%, down from 51%-31% back in September. That decline appears to come from whites (who are now 39%-40% after being 46%-36% in September), men (33%-40% down from 44%-37%), and Midwest residents (35%-43% after being 48%-31%). This is what happens when youre viewed more as a politician than as a statesman or stateswoman, as all the presidential speculation has done with Hillary. Her ace in the hole right now? Women view her positively, 55%-29%. By the way, her husband Bill Clinton is the most popular political figure in our poll with a fav/unfav of 55%-24% (Only the Pope has a better fav/unfav rating). The biggest difference between Bills numbers and Hillarys -- independents view Bill favorably by a 62%-20% margin, while Hillary is viewed 28%-35% by this group.

Not believing Christie or Hillary

Speaking of both Christie and Hillary Clinton, a new Bloomberg national poll finds this: Sixty-three percent say they dont believe the New Jersey governors claims that he knew nothing of a plan by his top aides to create a politically motivated traffic jam More than half say they dont believe Clinton, the former secretary of state, when she says she never saw requests for more security before the 2012 attack at a U.S. diplomatic compound that resulted in four American deaths in Libya. Also from the poll: Clintons favorability rating has declined to 56 percent from a Bloomberg poll high of 70 percent in December 2012, a month before she clashed with Republicans at a Senate hearing on the events that sparked the attack in Benghazi, Libya. Christies popularity fell to 32 percent from 50 percent in June.

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First Thoughts: Democrats' Messaging Running on Empty

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.:"Despite overwhelming scientific evidence and...

Democrats occupied the Senate floor all night Monday, talking about climate change. They didn't try to advance any legislation, and they didn't even try very hard to get media attention.

The members know that serious climate change legislation stands no chance of passage in this divided Congress, wrote the New York Times' climate-change reporter, Coral Davenport. Beyond that, Democrats know that action on climate legislation would help Republicans take the Senate in 2014.

So why occupy the Senate floor talking about the issue? In short: Faith, identity and cash.

The liberal climate cause is easier to understand if you think of it as a religion. Mondays talkathon sounded at times like a religious revival. Senators spoke about the faithful who believe in wind and believe in renewable energy. Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., said climate for him is a faith issue.

One doctrine in the Church of Climate is sola fide. In the words of Reformation theology: Justification comes through faith alone. Good works are irrelevant.

During the George W. Bush Era, for instance, liberal enviros compared the U.S. unfavorably to Europe on climate matters. The U.S. was curbing greenhouse gas emissions better than Europe, but Europe had made the profession of faith: signing on to the feckless Kyoto climate-change treaty.

Similarly, Democrats dont need to do anything about climate, as long as they profess their faith. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., uttered the creed on the Senate floor: We believe in science.

Identity politics also makes sense of empty phrases like we believe in science. The Left finds much of its self-worth in the notion that liberals believe in science more than conservative mouth-breathers do.

Democrats called Republicans deniers 28 times during the talkathon. Majority Leader Harry Reid framed his speech this way: Despite overwhelming scientific evidence and overwhelming public opinion, climate change deniers still exist.

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Democrats talk about climate, rake in billionaire bucks

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