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WASHINGTON On paper, U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez should be sitting pretty.

Hes running in a comfortably Democratic district. He has a pocketbook that other candidates can only dream of. And hes well known in the community where he worked for decades before taking office.

Theres no way Vicente can lose this race, said former U.S. Rep. Filemon Vela, the last Democrat to represent the district. The world could collapse and hes still going to win.

But Velas confidence about the race isnt universal. Despite his advantages, Gonzalez is running a hard-fought campaign that has been beset by obstacles some of his own making.

In a twist, Gonzalez, a three-term congressman, is not the incumbent where hes running, since he opted to run in a new district after redistricting. That distinction goes to Republican U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores, who won her special election and flipped the district red in June after a tsunami of support from national Republicans hopeful to make South Texas their new stomping grounds. Emboldened by that win, Republicans are relentlessly going after Gonzalezs verbal gaffes and portraying him as an out-of-touch creature of Washington.

Gonzalezs aggressive spending in the race shows that hes not taking anything for granted. His campaign has spent $2.2 million as of the end of June on a robust ground game nearly twice the expenses of his past two campaigns combined and thats before he released his first TV ad in late September. With over $1.4 million in cash on hand, hes on his way to surpassing his 2016 spending of $2.3 million. This year is his most robust operation since he first ran for Congress in 2016, he said.

To Republicans, its an admission that their forays into the traditional Democratic stronghold of South Texas are scaring Democrats and that Flores special election was not the one-time, off-season fluke theyve made it out to be. Flores stresses her message of hard work, faith and border security appeal to the socially conservative values of the region, saying Democrats took South Texas Latinos for granted even as the party became increasingly out of step with their values.

National forecasters are also less certain about Gonzalez's odds with the Cook Political Report assessing the race Wednesday as a "toss up."

Flores special election victory last summer followed her party pouring over $1.7 million largely from out of state, into the race and the House Democratic campaign arm declining to match the spending. Gonzalez, who did not run in the special election because he still occupies his seat, warned at the time that neglecting the district in the special would swing momentum in Republicans favor, calling the loss a self-inflicted tragedy.

It was a mistake to not have gone all in on that special, but we are where we are, he said in a recent interview. He also said that the Republican cash was the only reason Flores was doing well and that November is going to be a very different election than the special.

Gonzalez is now running in the 34th District after three terms representing the next-door 15th District, which runs from the suburbs of San Antonio to McAllens Mexican border. Gonzalezs home and much of his old districts urban core was looped into the newly recast and far more Democratic 34th District after redistricting.

The 34th District has a strong record of Democrats succeeding down the ballot. Cameron County, which makes up the districts population center along with portions of Hidalgo County, voted 54% for Democrat Lupe Valdez in the 2018 gubernatorial election, even though she was widely seen as a weak candidate even within her party.

The deadline to register to vote in the 2022 primary election is Oct. 11. Check if youre registered to vote here. If not, youll need to fill out and submit an application, which you can request here or download here.

Early voting runs from Oct. 24 to Nov. 4. Voters can cast ballots at any polling location in the county where they are registered to vote during early voting. Election day is Nov. 8.

This option is fairly limited in Texas. Youre allowed to vote by mail only if: You will be 65 or older by Election Day, you will not be in your county for the entire span of voting, including early voting, you cite a sickness or disability that prevents you from voting in person without needing personal assistance or without the likelihood of injuring your health, youre expected to give birth within three weeks before or after Election Day or you are confined in jail but otherwise eligible (i.e., not convicted of a felony).

Not always. Youll want to check for open polling locations with your local elections office before you head out to vote. Additionally, you can confirm with your county elections office whether election day voting is restricted to locations in your designated precinct or if you can cast a ballot at any polling place.

County election offices are supposed to post on their websites information on polling locations for Election Day and during the early-voting period by Oct. 18. The secretary of states website will also have information on polling locations closer to the start of voting. However, polling locations may change, so be sure to check your countys election website before going to vote.

Youll need one of seven types of valid photo ID to vote in Texas: A state drivers license, a Texas election identification certificate, a Texas personal identification card, a Texas license to carry a handgun, a U.S. military ID card with a personal photo, a U.S. citizenship certificate with a personal photo or a U.S. passport. Voters can still cast votes without those IDs if they sign a form swearing that they have a reasonable impediment from obtaining a proper photo ID or use a provisional ballot. Find more details here.

And it has only gotten bluer with redistricting, which lobbed off a large tail of the district that extended far north into Gonzales County east of San Antonio and included more conservative parts of the state. Flores won her special election under the old district lines, where President Joe Biden won by 4 percentage points over Donald Trump based on the 2020 election results. But this November the new district will apply, which would have had Biden winning with a 15.5-percentage-point margin.

Republicans contend that Gonzalez fled the 15th District to the 34th in order to enjoy running in an easier race for a Democrat.

He had no idea who he was going to be running against. He had no idea he was going to have to be running against an incumbent, Flores said. Hes abandoning his constituents.

Its a narrative that visibly irritates Gonzalez, who retorts that he moved because the Legislature put his home in the new 34th district. Members are not legally required to live in their districts.

We could have won [District] 15 as well. It would have been more of a challenge because of the way they drew it to be a very Republican district, Gonzalez said.

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Gonzalez faced off with Monica De La Cruz, who is ideologically and personally close to Flores, in the 15th Districts 2020 general election. The incumbent Gonzalez spent over twice as much money as De La Cruz but won by a margin of only 2.9 percentage points.

His run in a far safer district also leaves the much more modestly funded and lesser-known progressive Michelle Vallejo responsible for defending the hotly competitive 15th District. Vallejo has brought in just under $700,000 as of the end of June with under $160,000 in cash on hand a shadow of the seven figures at Gonzalezs disposal.

Regardless of the new district, Gonzalez says his ties to the community are unchanged. He has represented the region as a lawyer for decades before taking office and built relations throughout its legal and political community. Gonzalez also has personal ties to the coastal areas of South Texas. He was born in and attended college in Corpus Christi, whose southern portion dips into the district.

Gonzalez worked closely with Vela on South Texas issues on Capitol Hill, including legislation impacting District 34. The two were often aligned on the policy issues, voting together well over 90% of the time, and Gonzalez co-sponsored nine bills sponsored by Vela, mostly over parochial concerns and border issues.

The two, along with U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar of Laredo, belong to a brand of moderate South Texas Democrats who can butt heads with the more progressive wings of their party. Though Democrats have made climate change a central policy issue this congress, Cuellar and Gonzalez were staunch defenders of their districts oil and gas workers (both members still voted for Democrats signature climate and social spending bill this year after weeks of holding their cards close to the chest). Gonzalez sits atop the Congressional Oil and Gas Caucus and is a member of the centrist groups the Blue Dog Coalition, the New Democrat Coalition and the Problem Solvers Caucus.

For 20 years as a lawyer, I fought for the same working families that I represent now in Congress, and many of them were from these new areas that Im representing now in Congress in District 34, Gonzalez said. So its not like I moved to Dallas.

Gonzalez takes fierce pride in those deep ties, but they have also led to some verbal gaffes that Republicans have centered in their attack strategy.

Gonzalez tried to distance himself from Flores, his Republican opponent and the first Mexican-born congresswoman, by casting himself as a native of the district who wasnt born in Mexico, Newsweek reported in June.

I didnt come here through chain migration, I didnt come through asylum or amnesty or whatever, he told Newsweek.

Gonzalez also landed in hot water after his campaign paid for advertising on a Texas political blog that used racist and sexist language to describe Flores. Flores often now says the congressman hired the blogger to verbally sexually harass her, but Gonzalez denies knowing about the content of the blog and vowed not to give it any more money.

Flores said he was attacking her identity as an immigrant because he was panicking over her momentum.

He should be talking about himself, and hes just constantly attacking me and constantly disrespecting me, Flores said.

U.S. Rep. Tony Crdenas, D-California, a fellow member of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus with Gonzalez, defended his colleague as a champion for immigrants in Congress who fights to help people of all backgrounds achieve the American Dream.

Ive known Vicente for a long time hes Mexican American and proud of his roots, Crdenas said in a statement. The idea that hes attacking Mayra Flores, or anyone, for her heritage is absurd.

Gonzalez has also come under fire after The Texas Tribune reported that he and his wife misfiled on their property taxes for years, claiming homestead exemptions on more properties than is usually allowed. The couple voluntarily corrected the simple oversight as soon as they were aware of it, Gonzalez said.

He was also subjected to a Republican attack ad that alleged millionaire attorney Vicente Gonzalez had made his fortune by making a living working for people charged with human trafficking. The claim was in reference to his work in 2006 defending Marin Martinez-Hernandez, who pleaded guilty to illegally transporting migrants from Texas to Florida.

In reality, Gonzalez was not primarily a criminal defense attorney. Rather he was appointed to represent Martinez-Hernandez by the court under managed assigned counsel at a modest hourly rate, as was common practice in South Texas at the time.

Still, its no secret Gonzalezs legal practice has made him rich. He owns investment properties in the nations capital, Texas, Mexico and Spain. He won his 2016 primary over Juan Sonny Palacios Jr., a deeply connected Democrat coming from a highly influential Valley political family, after lending well over $1 million of his own cash to his campaign.

While Gonzalez cast the personal spending blitz at the time as freeing him from corporate interests and the result of years of hard work out of a working class background, Palacios camp at the time felt he was buying his election.

Gonzalez maintains he gained his wealth defending working families and as a member of the Blue Collar Caucus, Small Business Caucus and Medicare for All Caucus is an advocate for working class issues on Capitol Hill.

Flores campaign also hasnt escaped its own share of scandal. Her district director, Aron Pea, left the campaign after allegations arose of sexual harassment and assault. Flores campaign said he resigned, and Flores herself closely tied the departure to the allegations. Pea maintains he did no wrong and that he left due to his health.

Gonzalez said Flores personal attacks merely hide the chasmic differences in their legislative records namely that he has one. Flores small stint so far in Congress was poorly timed for positioning to get major legislation passed. It coincided with the last-minute summer crunch for agenda-setting bills to get through before election season consumes everyones attention.

Gonzalez is also gleeful in pointing out that one of Flores first votes in Congress was against the bipartisan gun safety legislation spearheaded by Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, which passed this summer in response to the Uvalde shooting. During a panel at The Texas Tribune Festival in September, Flores justified her vote by saying it did not go far enough in funding school safety. She introduced legislation last week that would redirect $11 billion from the IRS toward hardening school security as an alternative.

When asked in an interview about her biggest wins, Flores first cited funding for local infrastructure projects in her district. Flores was not in office when the House voted on the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act that poured billions into regional projects. She joined all Republicans in voting against the Inflation Reduction Act, Democrats cornerstone climate, social spending, health care and energy bill.

Flores adds that in her short time in Congress, she has blown up visibility for the districts issues, hosting town halls and attracting national attention simply by having such an aggressive ground operation. No one cared about District 34 before she rolled around, she said, with Democrats merely assuming the seat was safe.

But Gonzalez is confident in the maturity of his campaign operation and his seniority to meet the challenge. While both candidates tout their aggressive door-knocking and town-halling, Gonzalez and his allies lean on the fact that this is far from his first time at the rodeo.

To the extent that Democrats are fretting and concerned about what happens in November in that district, theyre just getting worried about nothing, Vela said.

Read more:
Vicente Gonzalez fights tough in 34th Congressional District race - The Texas Tribune

Republicans have blamed Democrats a lot for rising inflation this past year. Democrats, after all, are in power at the White House and both chambers in Congress and this is an election year.

Thus, Rep. Zach Nunn, R-Bondurant, who is seeking a seat in Congress, brought it up in a recent tweet that introduced a campaign ad that attacks his opponent in Iowas 3rd District race, incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Cindy Axne, for out-of-control spending in Washington, D.C.

"Iowans are paying $5,000 extra for everyday goods under Biden and Axnes inflation," the tweet stated.

We examined a couple of things in that statement: that Iowans will pay an extra $5,000 this year because of inflation and that Biden and Axne can share some of the blame for that inflation.

We start with the numbers. Contacted by Politifact Iowa, Nunns campaign said they were taken from a March report by Bloomberg News. The report states that by, Bloombergs calculations, Americans would pay $5,200 more on average this year for goods using the Personal Consumption Expenditures index. This number is an estimate of inflation throughout 2022 and could be different at the end of the year.

Inflation can be measured across other time periods so other measures exist, depending on where you live and from when you measure the rise in consumer good prices. A July report from the Republican side of Congress Joint Economic Committee went back to January 2021 when Biden took office to state that Iowans were projected to pay $7,997 more this year than they would have for the same goods back then, for a state inflation rate of 13.7% since the start of 2021.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, whose announcements get widespread news coverage, reports Consumer Price Index inflation every month, measuring against the past 12 months. The bureau reported an August rate of 8.1% in the Midwest region for the previous 12 months. That would amount to a yearly increase in costs from August 2021 to August 2022 of $4,176, using the Consumer Price Index report from the Bureau of Labor statistics for the Midwest region.

Next, who's to blame. Nunns campaign, when contacted by Politifact Iowa, stood by its claim that Democrats are to blame for inflation. The campaign ties Axne to Biden by pointing out accurately, according to the FiveThirtyEight data analysis website, that Axne has voted with Biden 100% of the time during Bidens term as president.

We have looked previously at claims that tie inflation to Biden. Sources in an April 2022 Politifact story said that, although the American Rescue Plan Act, a stimulus package passed in 2021 that cost about $1.9 trillion, added 2 points to inflation, international pressures and supply chain issues had a greater impact on inflation.

Marc Goldwein, with the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a group that promotes lower deficits, said in that PolitiFact story: "With no American Rescue Plan, we would still have inflation above the Federal Reserves target of 2% to 3%."

None of the experts PolitiFact talked with for the April story, liberal or conservative, said Bidens actions were responsible for all of the inflation.

Sources cited in other PolitiFact stories have said that supply chain disruption, low supply of goods and international market pressures have contributed to inflation. Financial experts in a JuneNew York Times story said strong demand, supply shortages and the aforementioned factors on the service industry also are major pressures on inflation.

In a letter to congressional leadership, 126 economists wrote that the Inflation Reduction Act will have a downward pressure on inflation after a short-term upward pressure when the bill was first passed. The letter was obtained first by CNN.

Stanford University economist John Taylor and others have said that the Federal Reserves fiscal policy during the COVID-19 pandemic could be a factor. That policy aimed to artificially stimulate the economy by keeping interest rates lower than usual. However, the Fed operates on its own, not by Democrats or, when they are in power, Republican partisans.

Democrats blame inflation on international pressures such as the war in Ukraine. President Joe Biden said in May blamed inflation on Russias invasion of Ukraine. The war is affecting supply chains but the full impact will not be known for a while. Some countries have higher rates of inflation than the United States, with Turkey having an inflation rate of 54.8%, according to the Pew Research Center.

Wendy Edelberg, director of The Hamilton Project and a senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution, said in a Politico story that the supply chain disruption caused by the war in Ukraine is impactful but not the whole story of why inflation is rising internationally.

Our ruling

Nunns campaign said Iowans would pay $5,000 more this year because of inflation, and that Democrats were to blame.

Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that Iowans will pay $4,176 more on household goods this year because of inflation, based on a bureau report for the Midwestern region going back to August 2022. The $5,000 figure comes from an estimate that Bloomberg News analysts predict for 2022. But it is an estimate. We must wait to see how close the prediction was to what happens.

The effect the American Rescue Plan ultimately will have on inflation has yet to be determined but it is having some effect, analysts said. But, solely blaming Democrats for inflation does not take into account the whole picture. Supply shortages and strong demand for products, supply chain problems and international market pressures combine with federal monetary policies to affect inflation. We rate the statement Half True.

Continued here:
Iowans are paying $5,000 more per year under inflation, are Democrats to blame? - PolitiFact

EAST LANSING, MI - Democrats seek to hold a 5-3 majority on the Michigan State University Board of Trustees. A pair of Republicans seek to draw even on Nov. 8.

There are seven candidates running for the two open seats decided by statewide voters in the Nov. 8 general election.

Democrat Renee Knake Jefferson is the lone incumbent running, as she seeks to defend the seat that Gov. Gretchen Whitmer appointed her to in December 2019 to replace former Henry Ford Health Systems CEO Nancy Schlichting.

Incumbent Republican Melanie Foster is not running for reelection.

Jefferson, a professor of law at University of Houston, is joined by small business owner and former Michigan State Legislature staffer Dennis Deno on the Democratic ticket. Denos firm Deno Research works on political and marketing analysis.

The Republican ticket consists of commercial real estate broker and former U.S. Navy officer Mike Balow, as well as orthopedic surgeon Travis Menge.

Retired Michigan Department of Health and Human Services worker Claranna Gelinau and former Muskegon County public school teacher Max Rieske are running as Libertarians. Robin Lea Laurain is running for the Green Party.

Click here: 2022 Michigan voter guide by MLive and the League of Women Voters

MLive/The Ann Arbor News partnered with the nonpartisan League of Women Voters of Michigan to provide candidate information for readers. Each candidate was asked to outline their stances on a variety of public policy issues, with the contested races listed below.

Information on other state, county and local primary races can be found at Vote411.org.

All responses in the voter guide were submitted directly by the candidate and have not been edited by the League of Women Voters, except for necessary cut if a reply exceeded character limitations. Spelling and grammar were not corrected. Publication of candidate statements and opinions is solely in the interest of public service and should NOT be considered as an endorsement. The League never supports or opposes any candidates or political parties.

An sign at one edge of the Michigan State University campus on Monday, Aug. 17, 2020 in East Lansing. (Jake May | MLive.com)Jake May | Mlive.com

Describe your qualifications and the skills and experience you bring to the position. Why do you want to serve on this university board?

Jefferson: Governor Whitmer appointed me to the MSU Board of Trustees in 2019. She chose me based on my expertise as an attorney and professor in legal ethics and gender equity. I served on the MSU law faculty for a decade from 2006-16, and continue to reside in East Lansing. My husband and step-son are proud Spartan graduates. I believe education should be affordable, accessible, and inclusive. I value academic freedom, campus safety/healing, civility, diversity, equity, respect, sustainability and transparency. I have been a champion of change to further these values at Michigan State, and hope to continue my efforts for the next eight years.

Balow: I have been in business for over 20 years and also had a wonderful experience serving as a U.S. Naval Officer for seven years at locations around the globe. The leadership skills and perseverance I learned in this position were invaluable toward my development as a leader and manager. I was raised in a very middle-class household, and I have never forgotten where Ive come from, which helps me relate to people from all sorts of socioeconomic backgrounds. I will put the core educational needs of our young men and women first and foremost, and everything else second. I am the only candidate who has a son or daughter who also attends MSU.

Deno: As a small business owner, former staffer in the Michigan legislature, MSU graduate and someone who lives a mile from campus, I see the positives and negatives of MSU Board of Trustees decisions. To get anything done, Trustees must put politics aside and build a consensus and also ask how their decisions affect the MSU community and the entire state. The number one job of the MSU Board is to serve as the fiduciary agent for our tax dollars and I want to use my business and political experience and community relations to ensure that MSUs budget reflects our priorities.

Menge: My healthcare leadership experience makes me uniquely qualified to successfully guide MSU through unexpected challenges, such as the COVID pandemic and Larry Nassar Scandal. Additionally, up to 15-20% of the annual budget ($1.4 Billion) at MSU is related to medical education, health sciences, and research. The MSU Trustees provide supervision over the university and its funds, but do not have a member with healthcare experience when addressing these issues. I received a scholarship to attend MSU, and want to utilize my experience to give back and serve the university that has provided so much to me. Go Green!

What are the two most pressing issues facing this university today, and what is your position on those issues?

Balow: There are more than two pressing issues facing MSU today. As Ive stated, weve priced college out of many families budgets, students are graduating with too much debt, and they are on campuses which arent always focused on getting them through with a meaningful degree in four years. Universities are wonderful places of research as well, but we must always be mindful of their core mission: educating our young men and women and making them productive citizens of this great country. If students are graduating and have difficulty finding employment and paying back their loans, thats a fail.

Jefferson: There are several issues that I would rank as the most pressing for MSU today. Priorities for me include: (1) enhanced accountability and transparency in Board governance; (2) meaningful diversity, equity, inclusion, and belonging; (3) improved campus safety and healing, especially for survivors of sexual violence and misconduct; (4) affordable tuition and living costs, in particular for in-state students; and (5) increased educational and economic opportunities for all 83 of Michigans counties through MSUs Extension Program.

Menge: Higher education and healthcare share many similar issues. I believe two of the most pressing issues facing MSU are the value of education offered and accessibility for students.Many people simply talk about cost, but I believe improving the value of education is more important. Value takes into account both the cost AND quality. I want to make high quality education affordable and lower costs, thereby offering the best value to students.Accessibility is also an issue facing students across Michigan. I want to ensure students from all backgrounds have the opportunity to obtain a world class education at Michigan State University.

Deno: Transparency and safety. As a public body, the MSU Board must be more transparent with their decisions and budget process. The other big concern is safety--do our students, employees, and guests feel safe on campus? Is MSU a safe place for everyone? If students do not feel safe then they will not succeed academically, and if employees do not feel safe then they will not stay at MSU.

What would you recommend to make university education more accessible to all Michigans residents?

Deno: Every candidate is going to say that they are going to fight to lower tuition, but we all know that they cant, thanks to cuts from the federal and state government. I would first like to examine our budget and see where our finances are coming from and going and if there are cost savings. More grant money would be great, but also increasing all salaries on campus to $15 an hour would help students pay their bills.

Menge: Improving accessibility to a high quality education at MSU is very important to me. I grew up on a cattle ranch in northwestern Colorado, and attended high school in a rural Wyoming town of less than 400 people. Without the scholarship I received to Michigan State, I never could have dreamed of (or afforded) to come to Michigan and attend school at MSU.I will work to ensure opportunities are available for Michigan students from every background to earn both merit-based and needs-based scholarships. We need to leverage our corporate and industry partnerships to further expand funding sources, and make better use of our taxpayer dollars.

Jefferson: Making education truly accessible to all Michigan residents requires more than keeping tuition affordable, though that is important. Pipeline programs starting in elementary school and extending through high school are essential to helping our youngest residents access higher education. MSU does this through the Extension program and other outreach efforts, but more can and should be done to help make university education a realistic option for anyone who wants to pursue it. In addition to K-12 pipeline programs, I recommend targeted outreach to first-generation university students and special support for them as they enter higher education.

Balow: In order to make university education more accessible to all Michigan students, I would focus on cost and outcomes. First, any student who would like to attend MSU, and is qualified, should be able to attend and graduate with minimal debt. Some debt is fine, but graduating with a mortgage payment is not acceptable, and probably dissuades some from getting a college degree. I would also strengthen partnerships with community colleges, trade schools, and certificate programs, so that credits are easily transferred in, should a student want to transfer to MSU.

Read more from MLive:

President hasnt been threatened with ultimatum or termination, MSU board members say

Review finds weaknesses with how MSU certifies reviews of Title IX reports

Michigan State University board in contract discussions with school president

See the rest here:
Democrats seek to keep slim majority in Michigan State Board of Trustees election. Heres whos running. - MLive.com

Arizona Democrats headed into the 2022 midterm races with a head full of steam, hoping to cement the state's newfound battleground status after a string of recent successes.

Mark Kelly's win in a special Senate election and Joe Biden's presidential victory in the state in 2020, after Kyrsten Sinema clinched her own seat in 2018 had, together, elevated the prospect that 2022 would be the year the party flipped the governor's mansion, too.

Instead, the FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Democratic gubernatorial nominee Katie Hobbs, the secretary of state, statistically deadlocked with former broadcast journalist Kari Lake, her Republican rival.

"I think there's a legitimate concern about it. There's a lot of money being poured into this race, the dynamics between the candidates are shaky and there's some weaknesses there. But I still have hope that we can pull it off at the end," said state Sen. Martin Quezada, a Democrat who is running for state treasurer.

The Grand Canyon State was until recently a Republican redoubt, and Democratic voter registration trails that of Republicans and unaffiliated voters, making a slog out of the race to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Doug Ducey.

Arizona Republican nominee for governor Kari Lake greets the audience during a stop on her Ask Me Anything Tour at American Way Market, Sept. 20, 2022, in Chandler, Ariz.

Rebecca Noble/Getty Images

But Democrats had been optimistic about Hobbs' statewide experience and what they saw as vulnerabilities for Lake in the general campaign given her alliance with Donald Trump and hardline policies, including on election denialism and restricting abortions. (Lake, who also campaigns on immigration, the economy and fighting progressives, has sometimes wielded a sledgehammer at events -- claiming it's for suspect electronic voting machines.)

"We have to take the governorship. Otherwise, we will be a fascist state," argued Pima County Democratic Party Chairwoman Bonnie Heidler. "What's disconcerting is how close it is."

Fueling the race's competitiveness, strategists said, is the tight nature of Arizona politics: Democrats' recent successes shouldn't hide the purple state's historically red hue.

Beyond that, some Democrats are wringing their hands over Hobbs' candidacy and the way that they say she comes across on the stump -- worries that Hobbs and others in the party forcefully reject.

Hobbs seized the spotlight in 2020 with her vociferous defense of Arizona's voting system against a barrage of baseless fraud accusations led by Trump and other Republicans. While that heightened profile helped her sail through the Democratic primary, some operatives question her presence on the trail compared with Lake.

Women candidates often face a harsher -- even sexist -- spotlight on so-called personality concerns during campaigns, these strategists concede, though Hobbs has had a lighter in-person schedule than both Lake and other Democrats on the ballot: She has opted to hold smaller gatherings and fewer press availabilities than Lake, who organizes large rallies and engages, albeit combatively, with the press.

"There's a lack of charisma," contended one Arizona Democratic strategist who was granted anonymity to frankly discuss the race. "And I think it's a challenge on their end because they're not confident when they go out so, their response to that is to try and do as little publicly as possible and try to sail to the finish line. And the ramifications of that are not everybody seeing you be visible."

Hobbs' refusal to debate Lake serves as a microcosm of that dynamic.

Hobbs and Lake were negotiating the terms of a possible face-off before Hobbs walked away earlier this month, warning that engaging with Lake would devolve into spectacle.

"Missing that was an error. I think a lot of the reasoning around that was 'oh, well, she's just gonna say crazy stuff anyway, let's not give her the platform,'" the strategist said. "But what happened with that was voters missed out on seeing them next to each other, they missed out on seeing Hobbs be the adult in the room and Kari be bombastic."

Some Republicans agree.

"Power Trip" follows 7 young reporters as they chase down candidates in the lead up to the midterms with George Stephanopoulos guiding them along the way.

"If Kari Lake wants to rant and rave for an hour on stage, then voters would see that and then make their own decisions," Barrett Marson, a GOP strategist in Arizona who isn't working with Lake, told ABC News. He added: "She's gonna be able to use this unfettered access to voters to soften her image and not ever face a tough point from Katie Hobbs."

Democrats have also warned against underestimating Lake's ability to connect with the public given her decades as a TV anchor beaming into voters' living rooms and her ease in front of the cameras.

Contrasting with her opponent, Hobbs' platform focuses on the economy (via a child tax credit and other measures); reproductive health and abortion access; and the drought-fueled water crisis, among others.

"I'd rather be in her shoes than Kari Lake's," a second Democratic strategist, who also requested anonymity, said of Hobbs. "But there hasn't been the strength that would be really helpful."

Hobbs' campaign has reportedly faced staff turnover since earlier this year -- and there has been other controversy.

Accusations of racism and sexism from Talonya Adams, a former staffer in Hobbs' state Senate office, are occasionally raised on the campaign trail, according to Quezada, the state treasurer candidate. (Hobbs said last year, about Adams, who was fired from her office: "I can say with certainty on my part, my decision in the termination was not based on race or gender. There were other factors.")

"If you look at the differences, Sinema and Kelly almost made no errors," said Mike Noble, an Arizona-based nonpartisanpollster. "You're seeing multiple missteps on Hobbs's run, whether turnover of staff on the campaign, the Talonya Adams issue of not being prepped for that, which they knew about for years -- but then most recently, the debate they weren't going to do."

To be sure, Hobbs has vocal defenders, both in Arizona and Washington.

Arizona gubernatorial candidate Katie Hobbs speaks at a press conference outside Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich's office in Phoenix, Sept. 24, 2022.News Katie Hobbs And Arizona Attorney General Candidate Kris Mayes Will Host A Press Conference

The Republic/USA Today Network

"The handwringing over Katie Hobbs is wildly overstated," said local Democratic strategist Stacy Pearson. "This is a homegrown candidate who has served her state for more than a decade since before Arizona was a swing state. So, if she's not polished enough, or hasn't had 20 years of television experience, or isn't quick enough on the draw, most Arizonans don't care."

"The DGA continues to view Arizona as one of our best pickup opportunities and is all in to make sure Katie Hobbs is elected as its next governor on November 8," added Democratic Governors Association spokesperson Christina Amestoy.

The race experts who spoke with ABC News said that hitting Lake on her conspiracy theories about the 2020 race and her abortion stances are the lowest hanging fruit -- and Hobbs has ramped up her attacks. (Lake has tried to recast her election denials as about "honesty and faith" and said Hobbs should debate her about it.)

After a state court revived a Civil War-era ban on most abortions, Hobbs swiftly scrapped a campaign event and held a press conference outside the office of the Republican state attorney general, who has supported that law.

She's also been running ads on abortion access, including one video warning that Lake would sic law enforcement on medical professionals who aid in an abortion.The pre-statehood law, which Lake had also backed, includes prison time for abortion providers. Lake has subsequently said, "It would be really wonderful if abortion was rare and legal," a comment that was quickly walked back.

"Keeping abortion front and center is probably the most important thing [Hobbs] can do, and she's doing it," said Bill Scheel, a longtime Arizona Democratic strategist.

Hobbs' team boasted that her approach will work with voters. Campaign manager NicoleDemont saidin a statement for this story that "Arizonans are rejecting Kari Lake's extreme and dangerous positions that are so far outside the mainstream" and "we're confident that sanity will beat chaos and Sec. Hobbs will be elected in November."

That confidence may be challenged in the race's final weeks, the outside operatives say, with early voting right around the corner.

"It's a toss-up, and the next couple of weeks are going to be crucial because ballots drop on Oct. 12," the first strategist said. "She has the ability to do it, the team's got the ability to do it They've just got to make the decision to proceed and not be behind the eight ball."

ABC News' Libby Cathey contributed to this report.

Continued here:
Arizona Democrats hope to flip the governor's mansion, but Katie Hobbs has some worried - ABC News

Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) is up with a new campaign advertisement attacking Democrats and the media for wielding race relations as a political wedge, even as his reelection in the Palmetto State is all but assured.

My family went from cotton to Congress in one lifetime. So, how did the Democrats and media welcome South Carolina's first black senator? When I wrote a bill strengthening policing, they called me Uncle Tim, Scott says in the 30-second spot, speaking straight to the camera. When I wrote a bill cutting taxes for single moms, they called me a prop.

WALKER ABORTION ALLEGATIONS AND TONGUE-LASHING FROM SON COMPLICATE EFFORT TO UNSEAT WARNOCK

The Left continues to run a divisive playbook because minorities who think for themselves represent an existential threat to their fracturing coalition, Scott told the Washington Examiner in a statement. I refuse to back down because I know their attacks aren't just about me they want to scare all other conservative minorities into silence.

The new spot, slated to run statewide on South Carolina television, is part of a previous $2.5 million advertising buy.

But Scott would probably be on a glide path to reelection even without the ad blitz.

South Carolina is a red state, the midterm elections have unfolded as an uphill climb for Democrats, and Scott is not facing the sort of compelling, well-funded Democratic challenger who took on Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) in 2020.

The lack of political pressure at home, combined with a flush war chest, has enabled Scott to travel the country campaigning for fellow Republicans on the 2022 ballot. Those travels have included trips to key, early presidential primary states, such as Iowa, stoking speculation that the senator is eyeing a White House bid.

Scott, appearing in television ads in those same states funded by a supportive super PAC, is pointedly not ruling out a 2024 presidential campaign.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The senator has made clear, however, that this years run for Senate will be his last. He plans to retire from Congress when his next term expires in 2028.

Read the rest here:
Tim Scott airs campaign ad criticizing Democrats and 'the media' on race - Washington Examiner