Archive for the ‘Democrats’ Category

SEAN HANNITY: Democrats have nothing positive to run on – Fox News

Sean Hannity discussed how Democrats have nothing to run on for midterms so they have turned to attempt to dehumanize Republicans on "Hannity."

SEAN HANNITY: DEMOCRATS IN WASHINGTO9N ARE TRYING TO PLAY POLITICS WITH HURRICANE IAN

SEAN HANNITY: And vile, personal attacks from the left are reaching a fever pitch, they can't run on their record. You know, with absolutely nothing positive to run on Democrats, they are now attempting to dehumanize Republicans all across the country in senatorial and gubernatorial races. They do so from a glass house. And tonight, we will expose two Democratic candidates for Senate who do not deserve the vote in their respective states. We begin in the great state of Georgia tonight.

Herschel Walker, the Republican Senate nominee in Georgia, speaks during a campaign rally in Macon, Georgia, on Wednesday, May 18, 2022. Photographer: Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg via Getty Images (Photographer: Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

While the media mob, they are obsessing over anonymous sources in The New York Times regurgitated by other media and fixated on family drama surrounding Republican Herschel Walker. They have been more than happy to ignore very serious allegations against the Democrat Senator Raphael Warnock.

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SEAN HANNITY: Democrats have nothing positive to run on - Fox News

Democrats Need More Than Beto ORourke If They Want To Flip Texas – FiveThirtyEight

PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES

Once again, everyone cant stop talking about Beto ORourke.

FiveThirtyEights polling average shows a single-digit contest in the Texas gubernatorial race between ORourke and the Republican incumbent, Greg Abbott. Earlier this year, ORourke made headlines for his record-breaking fundraising, and the fallout from a succession of high-profile events in the state the triggering of a preexisting state law banning abortions, continued strains on the power grid and a mass shooting at an elementary school in Uvalde, one of the deadliest school shootings in U.S. history are giving him unexpected leverage against Abbott. As a result, this gubernatorial election could be one of Texass most competitive since Democrats last held the office in the 1990s.

Lets be real about one thing, though: The overall electoral environment might be improving for Democrats, but ORourke is still a serious long shot. FiveThirtyEights 2022 midterm-election forecast gives Abbott a 95-in-100 chance of besting his ubiquitous Democratic challenger. But is it possible that after his closer-than-expected Senate race against Ted Cruz in 2018 and rise to national prominence after a nearly eight-month campaign in the 2020 presidential election, a narrow loss against Abbott in November could be a victory for Texas Democrats in the long run?

The idea that ORourke could be laying the groundwork for future Democratic victories in Texas isnt a crazy one. After all, other Southern states like Georgia, Virginia and North Carolina have become somewhat more competitive over the past several election cycles. But another close statewide race for ORourke this year doesnt necessarily mean Texas is on the verge of turning blue or even purple. Thats because ORourke is, well, ORourke, and without a stronger campaign infrastructure throughout the state, it will be hard for most Texas Democrats running in statewide elections to replicate his level of fundraising and fanfare. And, fundamentally, Texas is still a red-leaning state.

ORourkes campaign style is hard to emulate because, for one, hes become a buzzy celebrity candidate since his 2018 race, and he has a gift for making headlines. When hes not standing up to hecklers at campaign events or interrupting Abbott at a news conference in Uvalde, where 19 students and two teachers died in a mass shooting, ORourke has made a name for himself by zig-zagging his Toyota Tundra across the state, snapping selfies with voters and dropping f-bombs to fire up his base.

As the chart below shows, public curiosity about ORourke has waned since his 2020 run, according to Google Trends data, but hes still able to draw national attention.

But politicians can only get so far on personality alone and ORourke is no exception. That doesnt mean he isnt a strong candidate, though. A poll fielded in late August and early September by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin gave Abbott only a 5-percentage-point edge over ORourke. And another, more recent, poll from Quinnipiac University conducted in late September gave Abbott a slightly larger, 7-point edge.

Still, its unlikely that ORourke will be able to build a lasting campaign infrastructure for future Texas Democrats to replicate if they want to run statewide. Thats because of one major problem: an apparent lack of organization among the Democratic Party in Texas. To build on ORourkes 2018 and likely 2022 margins against incumbent Republicans, the party would need to build and sustain a solid campaign infrastructure well past this years midterm elections.

One of the issues for Democrats here is that theres been a lot of turnover in their candidate pool, said James Henson, the executive director of the Texas Politics Project. To me, thats a pretty big indicator that theres not really an established, institutional foundation in the Democratic Party here in the way that you do see it on the Republican side.

In addition to issues with recruitment and turnover facing Democrats running in marquee Texas races save for ORourke and former oil executive Mike Collier, who is challenging Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick again after losing to him by 5 points in 2018 the party has run inexperienced candidates against formidable Republicans and doesnt have a presence in a sizable chunk of the state. Case in point: Over 50 of Texass 254 counties have no organized county party or leaders, according to the state Democratic Partys website. A notable number of those counties are in rural parts of the state too, and even in 2018, ORourke won the support of only 24 percent of the voters living in Texass 186 rural counties, according to The Texas Tribune. Cruz, in contrast, won over 75 percent of the vote there.

Moreover, Henson told me, theres no obvious successor who can build off and improve upon the infrastructure that ORourkes campaign has created. In the past, there were times when successful campaigns, at least indirectly, provided people with a model for organizing and professional skills, Henson said. But thats just not happening here in Texas. In 2018, ORourkes close contest against Cruz helped Democrats Lizzie Fletcher of Houston and Colin Allred of Dallas flip two congressional districts by each unseating a long-term Republican incumbent. Democrats had a net gain of 12 seats in the Texas House as well. But then, in 2020, Texas Democrats fell short of their electoral goals.

There are other reasons, though, why a close win for ORourke doesnt necessarily speak to Democrats political future in Texas. For one, the Republican Partys brand is still strong in Texas. When it comes to key policy issues, polling suggests that voters still overwhelmingly trust Republicans over Democrats. The August-September Texas Politics Project survey, for example, showed that voters were more likely to trust Abbott over ORourke on handling issues like the U.S.-Mexico border situation and the economy. Voters trusted ORourke more on abortion, however.

Yet while voters were divided over who could better handle gun violence, Texans said the top issues facing the state were border security, immigration, political corruption/leadership and inflation/rising prices abortion and gun control/gun violence were further down their list. That means that any Democrat running after ORourke would need to win voters trust on these issues and thats a tall order given that even ORourke has had only limited success.

On top of that, demographic changes in Texas that at one point may have been viewed as good news for Democrats might not end up working in their favor. The states Hispanic population is growing, but demographics are not destiny in American politics and those voters might be a hard bloc for Democrats to make further gains with, especially after Texass border counties moved sharply to the right in 2020. Voters in other rural parts of the state have also been hard for Democrats to win, and despite ORourkes campaigning in rural counties, its not clear whether even he is making significant inroads.

And so far, ORourke hasnt necessarily provided a foolproof model for winning over Republican and independent voters, whose support hed need to beat Abbott in what is still a red-leaning state. ORourke might be a major presence in Texas, but hes not actually that popular. A September poll from the University of Texas at Tyler for The Dallas Morning News, for instance, found that almost half of the states registered voters 47 percent had a somewhat or very unfavorable opinion of ORourke compared with 40 percent who viewed him in a positive light. He didnt fare well with independent voters, either: 46 percent had an unfavorable view of ORourke versus 34 percent who had a favorable opinion.

The survey didnt ask respondents to assess Abbotts favorability, but exactly half of voters said they strongly or somewhat approved of his job performance as governor; meanwhile, 47 percent said they disapproved. Those numbers have given ORourkes opponents an opportunity, too. Since his presidential campaign, he has given Republicans a useful foil to inspire their own turnout.

In short, for Texas Democrats to succeed statewide, theyd need to have a healthy mixture of ORourkes popularity, an appeal to a wider swath of voters and, ideally, not be a bogeyman or bogey(wo)man for Republicans. Thats a big ask in a state that hasnt fielded especially strong Democratic candidates beyond ORourke in the past few statewide election cycles.

Of course, because the Democratic candidate is ORourke a micro-celebrity in the state and nationwide the race could be close. That said, his race likely wont say much about Texas Democrats larger ambitions to flip the state because theres still a lot of work that needs to be done before they get there.

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Democrats Need More Than Beto ORourke If They Want To Flip Texas - FiveThirtyEight

Democrats now have a chance however slim to retain control of the House – The Hill

As summer began, it was unthinkable that Democrats in the midterm elections could keep control of the House of Representatives; as summer ends this week, its thinkable.

Its still very likely that Republicans will win more than the net of five seats necessary for the majority. They would be intent on making Joe Bidens life miserable for the next two years.

Yet Democrats today may have more current tailwinds than historic headwinds. Six reputable non-partisan congressional preference polls this month NPR/PBS/Marist, Wall Street Journal, Economist/YouGov, Fox News, Harvard-Harris and the New York Times-Siena all show Democrats leading; the average is more than three points.

This may be a political Prague spring. GOP voters may come home by November, and some polls again may be undercounting low propensity Donald Trump-loving voters. The betting markets still see a Republican House next year.

The buoyant optimism of Republicans peaked three months ago. After an initial analysis that redistricting was a partisan wash, Ohio Republicans, despite a court order, were able to keep their deeply gerrymandered map, while the equally gerrymandered Democratic-drawn map in New York was thrown out. These two outcomes may have gained five GOP seats.

But most everything since has cut against the Republicans: foremost, the Supreme Courts decision to end abortion protections, which has energized Democratic candidates and voters; Trump has been dominating the news, which Democrats believe helps them; gas prices are coming down a bit, and there have been some legislative achievements.

National tides will affect competitive house races, as will the quality of candidates and local politics.

There is no typical contest, but Ive selected several races in five states three in the usual Midwest battleground, plus Pennsylvania and California that crystallize the Democrats possibilities and the daunting challenge. These include both their own seats they must hold and prospects for pickups.

Pennsylvania: In the Keystone state, Republicans are targeting two Democratic incumbents:Matt Cartwright and Susan Wild in the swing Northeast part of the state; the Cook Political Reports Dave Wassermans PVI index the partisan voting index that reflects how each district performs at the presidential level compared to the country as a whole shows Republicans have a small edge in these districts. There also is an open seat in Western Pennsylvania rated a tossup.

The onus is on Democrats to win these three seats. The life raft may be the top of the ticket, which features especially weak Republican candidates for governor and U.S. Senate.

Michigan: With an abortion referendum on the ballot, Democratic hopes have soared, perhaps enough to rescue an endangered incumbent, Dan Kildee, in his Flint-based district. Democrats got a break and should win a Grand Rapids seat after a Trump right-winger defeated a more moderate GOP incumbent in the primary.

It will take a blue wave in the Wolverine state, however, to win another seat in the lower peninsula, where Republican John James, who lost two close Senate, races, is the stronger candidate in a district with a PVI of plus-3 Republican. But his anti-abortion stance could make this a close contest.

Ohio: Republicans may have miscalculated in redistricting when they targeted Democrat Marcy Kaptur; her Toledo-based district now has a Republican partisan advantage, but the GOP then nominated P.J. Majewski, who attended the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol and peddles QAnon conspiracy theories.

Conversely, they didnt protect Republican Cincinnati Congressman Steve Chabot the new district leans Democratic and Democrats are convinced theyll win this seat.

Tougher will be the open seat in northern Ohio. Most of this district has been represented by Tim Ryan, a Democrat whos running a very competitive Senate race; the redrawn district has a Republican edge.Democrats need to win all three of these Ohio seats.

Iowa: This is a tough nut for Democrats to crack in a state that has moved Republican red. Democrats are trying to knock off two freshman Republicans and hold onto their only member of the delegation. All three districts have a GOP PVI advantage.

Moreover, the Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds and the 89-year-old seven-term Sen. Chuck Grassley are favored at the top of the ticket.

The glimmer of hope is Republican efforts to push through a heartbeat bill that would ban abortions after six weeks. The always reliable Anne Selzers Des Moines Register poll shows Iowans by 54 percent to 38 percent oppose this measure. Democrats have to win at least one, maybe two, of these seats.

California: Democrats enjoyed a banner year in 2018 that Republicans reversed two years later. Democrats have to win back three of these seats, represented by Republicans Michelle Steel in Orange County and further north, David Valadao and Mike Garcia. Valadao is one of only two Republicans who voted to impeach Trump still politically alive.

Joe Biden won these districts in 2020. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is expected to win easily, and Democrats have an abortion rights referendum on the ballot to bring out more voters. All three of the GOP House targets are anti-abortion. Democrat Bill Carrick, an eminence grise of California politics, is optimistic about these races and ventures there are a couple other sleepers if theres a blue wave.

Overall, if Democrats win, say, 80 percent of the races in these five states, they have a shot at holding the House.

Thats a very tall order, but not unthinkable.

Al Hunt is the former executive editor of Bloomberg News. He previously served as reporter, bureau chief and Washington editor for The Wall Street Journal. For almost a quarter century he wrote a column on politics for The Wall Street Journal, then The International New York Times and Bloomberg View. He hostsPolitics War Roomwith James Carville. Follow him on Twitter@AlHuntDC.

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Democrats now have a chance however slim to retain control of the House - The Hill

GOP Chances of Beating Democrats for Senate Control With 50 Days to Midterm – Newsweek

Democrats lead in five key Senate races Republicans hope to flip just 50 days out from the midterm elections in November, giving them hope to hold control of Congress' upper chamber despite President Joe Biden's approval rating floundering for much of the summer.

Democrats currently hold a majority in the Senate, which is split between 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats. One-third of the Senate is up for grabs come November, when voters will determine which party will ultimately win control.

Republicans hoped to make the midterms a referendum against Biden, who suffered from struggling poll numberslargely fueled by economic concerns including high gas prices, inflation and recession fearsthroughout the summer. However, a series of legislative wins, as well as the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade in June, have given Democrats hope that they could hold onto a majority of Senate seats.

Of the 35 seats up for grabs, 14 seats are held by Democrats, while 21 are held by Republicans. Republicans are aiming to flip Democratic-held seats in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. Meanwhile, they are on the defense in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin.

Here is a look at the five Democratic-held Senate races Republicans hope to flip in November.

Democratic Senator Mark Kelly was first elected in the state's special election in 2020 to serve out the remainder of the late Senator John McCain's term. Kelly defeated former Senator Martha McSally by 2.4 percentage points and is expected to be in for another competitive race during the midterms. Arizona is one of the states most evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans.

Now, Kelly, a former astronaut who is married to former Representative Gabrielle Giffords, is running for his first full Senate term.

Although the race remains competitive, Kelly is seen as having a narrow lead against venture capitalist Blake Masters, who won the support of former President Donald Trump during the Republican primary and has faced backlash for some controversial remarks.

Kelly holds an 8.1 point lead against Masters in an aggregate of recent polling from FiveThirtyEight. An Emerson College poll conducted from September 6 to 7 found Kelly with a 2 point lead among likely voters. In the poll, 47 percent of respondents backed Kelly, while 45 backed Masters.

Colorado, once viewed as a swing state, has become a Democratic-leaning state in recent years, with Democrats sweeping statewide office elections in 2020. But Republicans view the state as potentially being competitive during the midterms because of businessman Joe O'Dea, a moderate who party leaders believe can appeal to independents and centrist Democrats.

As abortion becomes a major issue during the midterms, O'Dea has staked out a more moderate position than other GOP candidates. He also condemned the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol and has not shied away from the fact that Trump did not endorse his campaign. He defeated a pro-Trump candidate who attended the riot during the primary.

However, polls show O'Dea still has an uphill battle in Colorado, which backed Biden by double digits in 2020. FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregate shows incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet with an 8.6 point lead. In addition, a survey conducted by Public Policy Polling from August 30 to 31 showed Bennet with an 11 point lead over O'Dea.

Georgia, a former Republican stronghold that broke for Biden in 2020, is set to be one of the closest Senate races in the midterms. Republicans are betting on former football star Herschel Walker to take on Senator Raphael Warnock, who was elected in 2020 to finish the remainder of the late Senator Johnny Isakson's term.

Walker, endorsed by Trump, has faced a number of scandals throughout the campaign, including his false claim that he served as an FBI agent. While Republicans are favored in other statewide races in the state, Warnock holds a 2.7 point lead, according to FiveThirtyEight.

A Quinnipiac University poll conducted from September 8 to 12 found Warnock holding a 6 point lead among likely voters, with 52 percent of respondents saying they planned to vote for Warnock. Meanwhile, 46 percent of likely voters are expected to vote for Walker.

Republicans hope former Attorney General Adam Laxalt will be able to unseat Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada, a state that has consistently voted for Democrats by very narrow margins in recent years.

FiveThiryEight's polling aggregate shows Cortes Masto, first elected in 2016, with a 2.9 point lead against Laxalt, who served as the attorney general from 2015 to 2019. Laxalt ran for governor in 2018, losing to Democrat Steve Sisolak by about 4 points. Republicans are hoping that Hispanic voters shifting toward Republicans, as well as economic concerns that affected the tourism-dependent Las Vegas area, will boost them in the state.

Republicans view the seat as one of their top pickup opportunities, as Laxalt has previously won tight elections. Democrats, however, point to Cortez Masto as a strong fundraiser.

An Emerson College poll conducted from September 8 to 10 showed Laxalt with just a 1 point lead over Cortez Masto. The poll found Laxalt winning the support of 42 percent of respondents, while 41 percent backed Cortez Masto.

Last Tuesday, Don Bolduc, who has aligned himself with Trump, won the Republican Party's primary to challenge Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan, who was first elected in 2016. Republicans have pledged to spend money on the race, but Democrats feel confident about their odds due to Bolduc's right-wing policies, which could alienate moderate voters in the state that voted for Biden by more than 7 points in 2020.

Bolduc defeated New Hampshire's Senate President Chuck Morse, who was seen as the more moderate option who polled better against Hassan than Bolduc. Hassan currently has a 6.1 point lead, according to FiveThirtyEight. Hassan previously served as New Hampshire's governor from 2013 to 2017.

An Emerson College poll from September 14 to 15 found Hassan with an 11 point lead. In the poll, she received 51 percent of support, while 40 percent of respondents said they planned to vote for Bolduc.

Newsweek reached out to the Democratic National Committee and Republican National Committee for comment.

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GOP Chances of Beating Democrats for Senate Control With 50 Days to Midterm - Newsweek

Biden says hes running. Democrats still have their doubts – The Hill

President Biden is telling everyone he plans to run for a second term, but with about 50 days to the midterms, most Democrats arent sure he will follow through on that plan.

Cedric Richmond, the former Democratic lawmaker and Biden White House official, said definitively this week that its on when it comes to Biden and 2024.

Hes running and were building an infrastructure for him to run and win,Richmond toldNBC. Right now, its all an early investment in 2024 while were helping 2022.

Despite such statements, a lot of Democrats have their doubts even as their overall optimism for the fall midterms rises as Bidens approval ratings inch up and polls and voter registration numbers offer evidence of voter anger with the Supreme Courts abortion decision.

If Democrats lose the House, as most still expect, but keep the Senate majority, will Biden decide to stick with his stated plans and be the partys nominee?

If things go more poorly and Democrats lose the House and the now evenly divided Senate, will it be the kind of political blow that changes Bidens mind about running for president?

Despite his insistence, will age ultimately end up being a factor? Biden will turn 81 in November 2023.

And if former President Trump runs again and looks like an odds-on favorite to win the GOP nomination, will Biden put everything aside to run again?

Behind the scenes, Democrats are talking, and talking about the possibilities, debating the pros and cons of a Biden run.

I think a lot of the mystery is were all beholden to the never-ending political news cycle, and Trump announced for reelection like three minutes after taking office, but its not unusual for a president to be waiting until after the midterms to announce, said Democratic strategist Eddie Vale, urging Democrats to stay calm.

I think a lot of people who were speculating about him not running were bed wetting because of insanely far out poll numbers and/or have a different preferredcandidate, but every indication seems to me hes running, he said.

Biden has repeatedly said he intends to launch another presidential bid for 2024. As recently as June, he said he would not be disappointed to face Trump in a rematch. Last week, Vice President Harris largely considered the front-runner if Biden should step aside also reiterated that view.

The president has been very clear that he intends to run again, she told Chuck Todd on NBCs Meet the Press. And if he does, I will be running with him proudly.

Sources say Biden has also begun to quietly examine what a 2024 campaign might look like, while testing out messages during the midterms.

Beltway pundits have parsed every cue and nuance however slight to solidify their views. When first lady Jill Biden said this week on NBCs Today that she and her husband had not yet discussed another run, some took that as a sign that it isnt happening.

Age is a major reason for doubts about Biden.

I love the guy. I think hes done a good job as president, but I also cant see the likelihood of a guy in his 80s running again, one strategist said. Like it or not, hes old.

It is rare for a sitting president to not run for reelection. The last time that happened was with Lyndon Johnson at the height of the Vietnam war.

But the nation has never had a president as old as Biden.

The president is also the only Democrat to actually defeat Trump in the Electoral College race. That will be a factor; few Democrats see another candidate in their ranks who is widely seen as having a stronger change against Trump.

Julian Zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University, noted that Biden faces questions beyond his age including his handling of the economy.

As Biden took a victory lap this week for the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, he had to contend with a split screen on cable news showing a falling stock market reacting to the news that consumer prices rose in August.

Biden has said he feels he is the only one in the Democratic Party who can defeat Trump, who turned 76 in June.

But if Trump doesnt run, Biden could face an opponent like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who Democrats fear could put up a good fight. Age would be a contrast and possibly a factor in a Biden match-up with DeSantis, who is 44.

Every presidential election is high stakes but after four years of the Trump presidency this feels more real than ever before. Combine all of these [factors] and the questions dont go away, Zelizer said.

Those questions continued to loom around the Biden presidency earlier this year as his poll numbers fell sharply and survey after survey showed that voters largely said the country was heading in the wrong direction.

More recently, after scoring a few legislative wins, Biden has rebounded.

A New York Times-Siena College survey, published Friday, showed Biden with a 42 percent approval rating, up from 33 percent in the last poll in July.

The presidents numbers were boosted largely by Democrats who are more optimistic about his leadership, as he faced major crises in recent months including the Russian war in Ukraine, soaring gas prices and record-high inflation.

There was always a path for the president to get back to a politically strong position and its because a lot of the loss of support was from some Democrats, said Democratic strategist Joel Payne. He has clearly been able to rebuild that over the summer and that bodes well for him going into a 2024 reelection campaign.

At the same time, others are more skeptical that Biden will be able to pull off another victory.

Hes had an amazing run, probably one of the best stories in the modern political era, said one Democratic donor. But you have to know when its time to hang up your hat, even for your own legacy.

Other Democrats scoff at the naysayers.

I find it interesting that all of these so called experts wont go on the record, said Democratic strategist Rodell Mollineau. Its likely because when he does run and wins, theyre going to look foolish.

Mollineau added: I suspect these are the same people who didnt think he was going to win the first time.

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Biden says hes running. Democrats still have their doubts - The Hill