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More than 650 activist organizations want Democratic leaders on Capitol Hill to double-cross one of their own who was instrumental in passing the partys massive climate and tax spending law: Sen. Joe Manchin III.

Hundreds of Democratic-aligned climate and other advocacy groups sent a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer on Wednesday urging the Democrats from California and New York to ditch their promise to Mr. Manchin to pass legislation streamlining energy projects including fossil fuels.The conservative West Virginia Democrats price for his vital support of the spending law dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act was a guarantee that Congress would pass a bill to slash bureaucratic permitting regulations that often delay energy infrastructure projects for years.

The letter marked the latest escalation of tensions between the left-wing of the party and Mr. Manchin, who they feel they do not owe anything.The nongovernmental organization Food & Water Watch was one of the letters signatories.This is a deal by and for the fossil fuel industry. This is not new, this is Manchin trying to use the politics of the moment to deliver on these things that Big Oil has wanted for a long time, Food & Water Watch National Organizing Manager Thomas Meyer said in an interview. Democrats have been yanked around by Manchin and his corporate cronies for the past two years. We dont owe him anything.

The offices of Mrs. Pelosi, Mr. Schumer and Mr. Manchin did not respond to requests for comment.

The lobbying against the deal is expected to intensify in the coming weeks when Congress returns from August recess. A coalition of environmental groups is planning a protest in Washington on Sept. 8 targeting Manchins dirty deal.The permitting reform agreement includes fast-tracking both fossil fuel and clean energy projects, as well as finishing the stalled $6.6 billion West Virginia Mountain Valley pipeline for natural gas. No official text has yet been released.Such legislation, activists argue, would contradict the historic climate spending Democrats passed just weeks ago. Roughly $370 billion was included and forecasts predict the provisions could cut greenhouse gas emissions in the next decade by 40% from 2005 levels.

Mr. Manchin has cautioned the left flank against double-crossing him for two reasons: Doing so would hinder new clean energy projects and potentially cause a government shutdown.

Democratic leaders want to tie the yet-to-be-finished bill to a stopgap funding measure that Congress must approve by the end of September to avoid a shutdown, a move they hope will stave off defectors.In their letter, the activists described such an approach as morally abhorrent. They emphasized their fears that rolling back environmental regulations would represent a profound betrayal to marginalized communities that are harmed most by pollution and climate change.

Holding the funding of the entire federal government hostage to satiate one senator with a heavy financial self-interest in fossil fuels is beyond irresponsible, they stated. Sacrificing the health and prosperity of communities in Appalachia, the Gulf Coast, Alaska, the Midwest, the Southwest, and other frontline communities around the country makes this side-deal profoundly disgraceful.

Far-left Democrats like Rep. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan have said they sure as hell dont owe Joe Manchin anything now. House Natural Resources Committee Chair Raul M. Grijalva, Arizona Democrat, wrote in a recent Newsweek op-ed that Democrats dont owe anybody anything in return for passing the bill.

Mr. Manchin not only has to win over his own party, but he must convince at least 10 Senate Republicans to support his legislation. Despite Republicans longtime advocacy for energy permitting reform, GOP senators have suggested they have no interest in helping after Democrats passed their climate and tax spending law along party lines.

Ive got the hard left right now saying, Hell no, were not going to do anything now that makes it look like were helping Manchin. This is something the Republican Party has wanted for the last five to seven years Ive been with them, Mr. Manchin said at an event last week in his home state. It either keeps the country open, or we shut down the government. Thatll happen Sept. 30, so lets see how that politics plays out.

Excerpt from:
Hundreds of climate, activist groups urge Democrats to betray Manchin on deal - Washington Times

The race to replace Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) as the leading Democrat on the Oversight and Reform Committee is already heating up, with at least two senior Democrats vying for the top spot in the next Congress.

Reps. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) and Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) quickly announced their intent to seek the powerful seat on Wednesday, just hours after Maloney lost her primary contest to Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) in Manhattan.

Maloney has chaired the committee since the death of Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.) almost three years ago. She will keep the gavel until the end of the current term, when House Democrats will vote to replace her. Its unclear if other Democrats will join Lynch and Connolly in the race.

With subpoena power and a broad jurisdiction, the Oversight panel is among the most sought-after committee spots in the lower chamber. And with Democrats expected to lose control of the House in Novembers midterm elections, the stakes will be high.

Republicans are vowing to use the Oversight panel to launch numerous investigations into the Biden administration.

In that scenario, the ranking member position will provide a high-profile perch for the senior Democrat to cut a national profile defending the partys White House ally on issues ranging from border immigration policy to the origins of the coronavirus.

Lynch, an 11-term lawmaker, is touting his seniority on the panel in his pitch to fellow Democrats, highlighting his current position as chair of the Oversight Committees subpanel on national security.

For the past 17 years, I have served as a Chairman or Ranking Member of an Oversight Subcommittee a record that is unmatched by any Committee member and I have fought proudly against Republican legislative attacks designed to curb critical safety regulations, abrogate the fundamental employment rights of federal employees, privatize and dismantle the Postal Service, and infringe on D.C. Home Rule, Lynch wrote in a letter to Democratic colleagues.

Connolly, a member of the New Democrats in his seventh term, is making a similar case, arguing that his long experience on the panel fighting to protect government institutions like the Postal Service, and defend federal employees a significant constituency in his Northern Virginia district make him the best fit for the job.

For more than fourteen years, I have made this Committee my top priority and focused on the issues that define it: Postal reform; defending our proud federal employees; rooting out waste, fraud, and abuse; modernizing the federal government; and holding the Trump administration accountable, he said Wednesday morning in a statement.

Unlike the Republicans, Democrats tend to favor more veteran members when it comes to filling the top seat on committees. Still, seniority provides no guarantee of winning a gavel. Indeed, Cummings took over the top spot on the Oversight Committee in 2011 by hopping over a more veteran Democrat. More recently, Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) won the Appropriations gavel over the the more senior Rep. Marcy Kaptur (Ohio).

Lynch, perhaps with that in mind, is vowing to empower the other members of the committee when it comes to investigative subjects.

In my experience, the Oversight Committee has been most effective when we allow individual members to showcase their diverse talents and areas of keen interest, he wrote.

Connolly, who has been among the most outspoken critics of Trumps role in last years attack on the U.S. Capitol, maintains that hes already proven his mettle in that arena.

We need a tested leader who will not be timid in the face of Republican insurrectionists. One who has a deep understanding of the issues facing our Committee and our country. A collaborator who can be a bridge to our talented and diverse caucus, he said.

Original post:
Democrats scramble to replace Maloney atop Oversight panel - The Hill

Heres another sign of improving Democratic prospects as Novembers midterm elections get closer: The Republican Partys edge in the generic ballot has basically evaporated.

The generic ballot refers to a poll question that asks voters which party they would support in a congressional election without naming individual candidates. Analysts tend to see it as a useful indicator.

Republicans now score 44.2% support in a RealClearPolitics average of generic ballots, with Democrats just a bit behind at 44.0%.

On Aug. 16 through Aug. 18, Democrats had the lead with 44.1% vs. the GOPs 43.9%, according to RCPs data.

The tightness is a big change from the prior eight months, when Republicans for the most part enjoyed a sizable edge in the generic ballot, as shown in the chart below.

Democrats appear to be getting a lift from several developments. For starters, gasoline prices RB00, -9.27% have declined from recent highs, even as prices for other essentials remain elevated and Americans are still worried about rampant inflation.

The GOP also has some candidates who are struggling in their campaigns. The top Republican in the Senate, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, conceded last week that candidate quality may mean his party will fail to flip that chamber.

In addition, voters that support abortion rights and therefore lean Democratic seem more eager to turn out in the wake of the Supreme Court decision in June thatoverturned Roe v. Wade.

Also see: Democrat Pat Ryan overcomes polling gap to win bellwether special election in New York state for U.S. House seat

Weve seen an uptick in Democratic numbers over the past six weeks, said Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, during a panel discussion on Tuesday hosted by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a think tank.

Theyve had legislative successes with the inflation bill, and other climate provisions thrown in there with that bill, she said, referring to Democrats big healthcare, climate and tax package.

But I think particularly the Dobbs decision that sent Roe back to the states has really energized the Democratic base. When I talk to Republican strategists, they know that theyre sort of frittering away this really good opportunity.

Related: This House seat may flip red for the first time in almost a century and indicate whether Republicans have had a really good night

The additional charts below show how betting markets see Democrats keeping their grip on the Senate but losing control of the House, along withkey Senate races to watch.

The rest is here:
Midterm elections: Republican edge over Democrats erodes in this one key indicator - MarketWatch

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To quote the esteemed American philosopher, Yogi Berra, "its deja vu all over again" in the wake of the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago as former President Donald Trump once again has single-handedly hijacked the nations attention.

Following the January 6th hearings, the federal-judge-approved search of Mar-a-Lago for classified documents, and the guilty plea of Trump Organizations CFO Allen Weisselberg, the 45th president of the United States is once again back in the spotlight, raising money, and consuming all the political and media oxygen available.

A few months ago, Washingtons favorite parlor game focused on guessing just how massive the red wave would be in November, wiping out Democratic control of the House and Senate.

Rising stars on the right were making trips to the all-important states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, and writing books with dreams of occupying the Oval Office. With President Bidens job approval numbers underwater, gas prices increasing daily, and supply chain issues affecting everyday Americans, many Democrats were rightly worried about what we might wake up to on Wednesday, November 9th.

AFTER LEGISLATIVE SUCCESS, POSITIVE ECONOMIC NEWS, BUMP IN POLLS, DEMOCRATS' MIDTERM CHANCES APPEAR TO IMPROVE

Now, inflation has ebbed, prices at the pump have declined for two straight months, and last months job creation numbers, totaling more than half a million, took everyone in Washington by surprise. And instead of a strong bench of Republicans articulating a vision for the future, we are yet again only talking about Donald Trump.

Donald Trump leaves NYC post FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago resort (Felipe Ramales: Fox News Digital)

All of these factors, coupled with a series of big legislative wins for veterans health care, the CHIPs Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act provide a stark contrast for President Biden and the united Democratic Party compared with the scenes playing out on the Republican side of the aisle.

In the wake of the Mar-a-Lago search, former President Trump is rallying his base and forcing would-be rivals to go on the record that there was nothing wrong or illegal in taking classified documents, some of our nations most sensitive secrets, to his palatial country club estate in Palm Beach.

WASHINGTON POST COLUMN: MIDTERMS LOOKING MUCH BETTER FOR DEMOCRATS BECAUSE OF TRUMP

Literally overnight, all talk of potential GOP 2024 contenders appears to have evaporated leaving Republicans like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Ted Cruz and even Trumps one-time running mate, Vice President Mike Pence, scratching their heads and pledging fealty to the Don once again.

Even South Carolina Republican Sen. Tim Scott, who just published a book in anticipation of a potential presidential run, spent the majority of his time on cable news after August 8 answering questions about the Palm Beach raid instead of talking about his brand of politics and how he can take it national.

REPUBLICAN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGISTS DEBATE OCTOBER SUPRISES FOR 2022 MIDTERMS

If you thought Donald Trump was no longer the head of the Republican Party, you lose. Republicans have rushed to defend their defeated standard bearer on dubious grounds and the former president is reaping all the political and financial benefits, while draining critical resources and attention from Republicans locked in tough races with less than 80 days until the midterm elections.

The day after the Mar-a-Lago raid, Trumps campaign team-in-waiting furiously emailed and texted supporters, raising over $1 million in just 24 hours. At the same time, the Senate GOP campaign arm announced that it was cutting back $13.5 million in ad spending across four key senate races.

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Any talk about Trump running again in 2024 or the potential of him announcing before the midterms, would likely drive turnout to be more like a presidential election year rather than a midterm cycle. While its true that Trump garnered more votes than any other Republican candidate in history, Joe Biden smashed all previous records by besting the incumbent president by more than seven million votes in 2020.

A midterm election, with a fired up electorate that looks more like 2018 or 2020, will benefit Team Blue in November. Plus any time spent talking about the former president, and not about inflation and rising costs across the board, helps down ballot Democratic incumbents and challengers.

Once again, while his endorsed candidates are floundering in the polls, Trump is in the drivers seat, reaping all the political benefits for himself while costing his party.

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As a Democratic operative, I am not worried about the prospects of Donald Trump running for president again.

In fact, as a campaign guy who wants to have a Democrat in the White House until 2028, I want him to be the 2024 Republican nominee. By taking up all the oxygen and raising money for himself while GOP senate challengers drop in the polls, its clear that the Mar-a-Lago raid winners are Donald Trump and Democratic prospects in November.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM KEVIN WALLING

Kevin Walling is a Democratic campaign strategist, former Biden 2020 campaign surrogate, vice president at HGCreative. Follow him on Twitter @KevinPWalling.

Link:
Why Democrats have a good chance of winning the Mar-a-Lago midterms - Fox News

AMAC Exclusive By Claire Brighn

Beginning in earnest with Donald Trumps election in 2016, working class voters in the United States have fled the Democratic Party in droves, quickly eroding a once solid base of support for the party. Amid this seismic shift in the electorate, many elected Democrats and mainstream media pundits have over the past several months desperately tried to prop up this narrative of Democrats as the party of everyday Americans even as the policies emanating from Washington have grown increasingly opposed to their interests.

Following the 2016 election, many in media circles seemed to believe that Trumps performance with blue-collar and working class voters in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio must have been a fluke. Though 2018 was an electoral setback for Republicans in the House, 2020 quickly proved a continuation of the trend that began four years before. Analysis from The New York Times in 2020 on The Two Americas Funding Trump and Biden Campaigns found, for example, that in ZIP codes above [the median household of $68,703], Mr. Biden outraised Mr. Trump by $389.1 million. Below that level, Mr. Trump was actually ahead by $53.4 million. Additionally, the study also found that much of Bidens financial edge came from deep blue states along the coasts supporting the widespread perception of Democrats as the party of coastal elites. The donations mirror voting patterns, Republican pollster Whit Ayres noted at the time.

The reason why this shift is occurring is easy to see on issue after issue, Democrats policies are hopelessly out of step with the experiences of working class voters. On day one of his administration, Biden took actions like canceling the Keystone XL pipeline and ending oil and gas leases on federal lands policies favored by wealthy liberals, but which started a steady rise in energy prices that hit working class Americans particularly hard. Democrats $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which was chock-full of woke priorities aimed at appeasing far-left activists, touched off an inflation crisis that has further devastated the financial lives of working class families. Instead of working to curb inflation, Biden and Congressional Democrats passed a bill dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act that economists believe will do nothing but increase inflation, and which contains subsidies for electric vehicles and solar panels more welfare for the wealthy. In just the past two years, every Democrat in Congress has voted for higher energy costs, ending coal, and unleashing an army of IRS agents on low and middle-income Americans.

Despite Democrats claims that these policies are targeted at working and middle class Americans, evidence suggests that the opposite is true. For instance, available data shows that 80% of electric vehicle subsidies end up going to individuals making more than $100,000 per year. A Wall Street Journal analysis of Californias push to switch to green energy sources, a plan similar to the climate provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act, showed that while working class households saw their energy bills increase, wealthy households actually saw financial gain from the policies.

Additionally, though Democrats slammed the Trump tax cuts as tax breaks for the rich and insist that their tax plan would make the wealthy pay their fair share, real wages grew under Trump, and that wage growth went predominately to workers at the lower end of the pay scale. Meanwhile, an analysis from the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation found that the tax code changes in Democrats Inflation Reduction Act would result in an increased tax burden of more than $17 billion on Americans making less than $200,000 in 2023 alone.

Democrats struggles with working class voters are perhaps best captured in middle American states that were once reliably blue or purple but are now trending Republican. The state of Iowa, for instance, which for decades was the reliable wind vane of American politics, has all but totally rejected Democrats. Obama carried the state twice in 2008 and 2012, but Trump also won there twice gaining ground in 2020 over 2016. Since then, Republican voter registration has almost doubled in the state, and Bidens approval sits at a dismal 23%.

A similar story has played out in Ohio, which also voted for Obama twice, but which Trump won handily in 2020. Though Biden managed to carry Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota two years ago, these once reliable bastions of Democratic support are now toss-ups.

In all of these states, which have been at the epicenter of the decline of American manufacturing in recent decades, working class voters are driving this shift, undoubtedly in large part thanks to Donald Trumps message of economic renewal and a return to American greatness.

In response, some Democrats have, to their credit, attempted to rebuild this base of support. A headline from The New York Times late last month asked: How Can Democrats Persuade Voters They Arent The Party of Rich Elites? In an apparent response, Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio (D) wrote in an op-ed earlier this month, Were supposed to be the workers Party. Democrats must be that party again. (Never mind the fact that Senator Brown has garnered a reputation as one of the most far-left members of the Senate and was a strong supporter of Democrats spending binge.)

But this outreach effort has proven to be little more than lip service to the actual needs of working class voters. Far from re-calibrating their policy agenda as working class voters abandon them, Democrats appear poised to double down on their embrace of elite interests and a far-left social agenda, one that is completely at odds with the traditional values of most working class families. For Republicans, this presents a golden opportunity if they can follow Trumps lead and continue focusing on the issues that matter most to these voters.

Claire Brighn is the pen name of a conservative researcher and writer with previous domestic and foreign policy experience in the Executive Branch.

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Democrats Have Abandoned the Working Class - AMAC