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After months of missteps, mishaps and misfortune, President Biden and his fellow Democrats are finally enjoying a run of good news.

Landmark climate legislation. A popular plan to lower prescription drug prices. Falling gas prices. Mounting legal problems for Bidens would-be 2024 opponent, Donald Trump. And new polls that show Democratic candidates gaining ground in key races across the country.

But will it be enough to prevent the sort of electoral bloodbath that a presidents party usually suffers in the midterms? Could Democrats actually win in 2022?

Voters cast ballots in Norwalk, Calif., for the Nov. 6, 2018, midterm elections. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)

According to the latest data, the answer is ... possibly. And those are better odds than Biden & Co. had any reason to expect even a few weeks ago.

For decades now, the pattern has been clear. There have been 19 midterms since World War II. In 16 of them, the presidents party lost five or more seats in the House the number that Republicans need to net this year to take control. Historically speaking, that means Democrats have an 84% chance of losing the House in November. Americans almost always vote against the president in midterm elections.

Factor in Bidens anemic approval rating (the worst of any modern president at this stage of his first term) and astronomical inflation numbers (the highest since the early 1980s), and it looks like a recipe for Democratic disaster.

And yet the polls are starting to show otherwise.

Over the last month, Bidens average disapproval rating has fallen more than two points, according to polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight; his average approval rating has risen nearly three points.

Thats not earth-shattering the presidents net approval rating is still negative by more than 16 points but its also not nothing. Any movement toward Biden from Democrats who no longer dismiss him as ineffectual, or from independents encouraged by improving economic indicators is notable.

President Biden at the White House prior to signing an agreement for Finland and Sweden to be included in NATO, Aug. 9. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Likewise, there are signs that presidential popularity which tends to suffer because of ever-increasing partisanship and polarization may no longer be the predictor of midterm performance it once was.

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Take the crucial generic ballot question, which asks voters which party they would prefer to control Congress. Since November 2021, Democrats have trailed Republicans on the generic ballot. But theyve only trailed by 1 or 2 points, on average not 16.

And even that dynamic appears to be changing. Amid a spate of fresh surveys that put Democrats ahead of Republicans by 3 points, according to Monmouth University; by 4 points, according to Morning Consult; by 6 points, according to YouGov the presidents party just took the lead in FiveThirtyEights generic-ballot average for the first time in nearly a year.

Several caveats apply here. The midterms are still more than two months away. Most voters dont really tune in until after Labor Day. And the pro-Republican impact of gerrymandering redrawing congressional districts to favor one party over the other means that Democrats typically have to win the national popular vote by at least a few percentage points just to avoid losing seats in the House.

To reach that threshold, Democrats still have a long way to go; they currently lead Republicans by half a point, on average. Generic-ballot polls usually underestimate GOP support as well. So unless the gap widens significantly, Republicans still stand a good chance a 77% chance, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecasting model of flipping the closely divided House.

Still, GOP odds have fallen by 10 points over the last month. Time will tell if they keep falling.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. (Jabin Botsford/Washington Post via Getty Images)

Meanwhile, the Senate side of things is trending toward Democrats, too only much more dramatically. Why? Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has some thoughts.

I think theres probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate. Senate races are just different theyre statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome, McConnell said Thursday in Florence, Ky. Right now, we have a 50-50 Senate and a 50-50 country, but I think when all is said and done this fall, were likely to have an extremely close Senate, either our side up slightly or their side up slightly.

McConnell is right that Senate races are just different. Hes also right that candidate quality is a problem for the GOP right now. To regain control, Republicans only need to net a single Senate seat. And yet in key race after key race, their nominees all of whom were endorsed by Trump seem to be underperforming:

In Ohio, a state Trump won by 10 points in 2020, Republican nominee JD Vance, the Hillbilly Elegy author, is effectively tied with Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan in the latest polls.

In Pennsylvania, Republican Mehmet Oz (famous from his television doctor days) is getting pummeled online over his wealth and New Jersey roots by his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who now leads by more than 11 points, on average.

In Georgia, former football star Herschel Walker, the GOP nominee, has been plagued by policy gaffes, revelations about previously undisclosed children and accusations that Walker repeatedly threatened his ex-wifes life, exaggerated claims of financial success and alarmed business associates with unpredictable behavior, according to the Associated Press. His Democratic rival, incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock, leads by roughly 2 points, on average.

In Arizona, incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, a former astronaut, appears to have rocketed to a sizable polling lead about 8 points, on average now that Republicans have nominated Blake Masters, a 35-year-old Silicon Valley venture capitalist turned hardline MAGA candidate who has called for a federal abortion ban and expressed interest in privatizing Social Security.

And in Wisconsin, two new polls one by Marquette University Law School, and one by Fox News show newly minted Democratic nominee Mandela Barnes ahead of incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, whose statewide approval rating has plummeted since he emerged as one of Trumps fiercest defenders in the wake of Jan. 6.

None of which means Republicans will lose these races. Johnson in particular has seemed imperiled in the past, only to perform better on Election Day than late-summer polls including Marquettes suggested he would. In recent cycles, pollsters have also had some problems getting enough Republicans especially working-class Republicans in Rust Belt states to respond to their surveys, which can make the GOP look weaker (and the Democrats stronger) than they really are.

Yet for now, at least, Republicans path to a Senate majority looks much narrower than it should be, given the national environment. In fact, as most key primaries have ended and this years general election matchups have been finalized in recent weeks, FiveThirtyEights Senate forecasting model has flipped from slightly favoring the GOP to favoring Democrats by a sizable margin: 63% to 37%.

According to the Cook Political Report, Democrats are currently favored to win back governorships in Maryland and Massachusetts as well (and to retain the office in hard-fought states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania).

Former President Donald Trump leaves Trump Tower to meet with New York Attorney General Letitia James for a civil investigation on Aug. 10. (James Devaney/GC Images)

Again, two months is an eternity in U.S. politics. Anything could happen. But ultimately 2022 may wind up being a contest between the usual forces that tend to decide midterm elections things like inflation and presidential job approval, which clearly benefit Republicans and some of the more unusual forces that appear to be keeping Democrats afloat.

Chief among the latter may be the end of Roe v. Wade. Last month, voters in deep-red Kansas flocked to the polls in record numbers to keep abortion legal there, and pro-choice Democratic candidates have overperformed in recent House special elections in Nebraska and Minnesota.

According to the latest Fox News poll, 55% of Americans disapprove of the Supreme Courts job performance and 60% disapprove of the decision to overturn Roe. Among women, the same survey showed a 7-point shift toward Democrats on the generic-ballot question since the courts ruling. From the day the Supreme Court overturned Roe to the day of the Kansas special election, new women registering to vote in the Sunflower State outnumbered new male registrations by 40%, according to Tom Bonier, CEO of data firm TargetSmart, who has found the same sort of registration gap in Wisconsin (17%), Pennsylvania (12%), Ohio (11%), North Carolina (7%), Georgia (6%) and Florida (5%).

The theory here is straightforward. Typically, the party that doesnt control the presidency tends to pick up seats in the midterms because their supporters are really motivated to vote against the president and the presidents supporters arent particularly motivated to vote for more of the same. But abortion may be leveling the playing field because it gives Democrats a reason to turn out as well: to stop a long-established right from being taken away.

Many [Democrats] feel as though their basic rights are being threatened, something a partys voters ordinarily arent concerned about when it controls both the presidency and Congress, FiveThirtyEights Nate Silver recently explained. The enthusiasm gap often accounts for much of the presidential partys disadvantage at the midterms, but its not clear it exists this year after Roe was overturned.

Then theres Trump to consider. Former presidents usually recede into ceremonial irrelevance. But Trump is teasing a comeback run in 2024 while catapulting candidates onto the 2022 ballot who have vowed to change election laws in his favor.

According to the latest Yahoo News/YouGov poll, thats become another motivating factor for Democrats who might otherwise skip the midterms. A full 72% of them say another Trump term would be the worst thing that could happen to America, and far more say that democracy is the most important issue when thinking about this years election than anything else.

Since World War II, the presidents party has only lost fewer than five seats in the House once, in 1962. Theyve only gained seats twice, in 1998 and 2002. In each case, there were extenuating circumstances some atypical event that boosted the party in power. In 1962, it was the resolution of the Cuban missile crisis. In 1998, it was the first impeachment of a president in 130 years a move many viewed as partisan overreach. In 2002, it was the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Could 2022 be another anomalous year? If things continue to break for Biden and the Democrats if prices continue to stabilize; if Republican candidates continue to stumble; if abortion and Trump continue to remain front and center then its certainly conceivable.

But those are some very big ifs.

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New polls show Democrats could 'win' the 2022 midterms. Should you ...

If you were to tell me that someone in politics is corrupt, criminally corrupt, I'd be open to believing you, but I wouldn't join you in calling for their head without a little something called evidence. Not your thoughts, not your conclusions, your women's intuition, or your Spidey sense tingling, I'd need proof. While there is no lack of haters of former President Donald Trump screaming at the top of their lungs about the former, the latter is where they lose not only me but should lose everyone.

These bogus made-for-TV January 6th Committee hearings are a prime example of how an unthinking group of people can be led down whatever path politicians want to prance them down. What's frightening is how so many Americans, particularly so-called journalists, are happy to goosestep right along with them.

I used goosestep not to shock but to illustrate their tactics. Lavrentiy Beria, the brutal head of Joseph Stalin's secret police, famously said, "Show me the man and I'll show you the crime," basically meaning the state can do whatever the hell it wants because it's the state. The state picks a target, then sets about to manufacture "crimes" to rid itself of said target.

I'm not saying Donald Trump is innocent. I'd no sooner declare a politician innocent as I would guilty. But he is not guilty unless and until he's proven guilty.

It's a quaint notion innocence until proven guilty and it used to be the cornerstone of our justice system. But this army of flying monkeys unleashed by the Wicked Speaker from the West isn't interested in American tradition or any concept of justice you're familiar with. They want to punish Donald Trump for existing to scare the hell out of anyone inclined to reflect fondly upon 1 percent inflation, $2 gas, energy independence, a secure border and affordable food. Those monsters!

I've lived long enough to know that if you're going to go into business with a billionaire, you'd better have damn good lawyers on your side or be prepared to be on the losing end of a deal if things go sideways. My whole life, I've read stories of how Donald Trump is being sued by this person or suing that person, whatever. I honestly don't care, I'm not going into business with him. I've also seen stories of his lack of fidelity in marriage (I've worked in DC for over 20 years, nothing like this shocks me anymore), but I didn't vote for him to be Pope, so I don't really care.

Yet, these things are used by leftists and Trump haters as proof that he must be corrupt. That's not how it works, or at least not how it's supposed to work.

Newsweek ran a piece this week entitled, "Will Trump Do Time? What It Would Take to Convict the Former President." In it, the author does what all of these Trump haters do: fail to even attempt to prove anything. "The mostly likely actions against Trump right now are federal charges stemming from his role in the attack on the Capitol, and both federal and state charges concerning his efforts to convince various officialsincluding then-Vice President Mike Penceto fraudulently position Trump as the winner of the 2020 election," it reads.

There is no proof in it, anywhere. Not even an attempt at proof. It's the column equivalent of sitting around a faculty lounge at UC Berkeley or the staff lounge of the January 6th Committee where someone says something everyone in there wishes to be true, so it's accepted as such. "Damn right," the heads nod. Actual dictators have nothing on these people.

Stalin, Mao, Hitler, Kim, Castro, you name the progressive tyrant, and you'll find a pile of bodies in their wake convicted with the same level of "evidence" the "it just has to be true" standard.

I'm not such a fan of the former president that I think he's incapable of wrongdoing, I just need proof. I won't join in a lynch mob against anyone. But there is no proof. Someone testifying for 10 hours, then Liz Cheney playing 10 seconds of it out of context, isn't proof of anything other than the fact that Liz and the Democrats don't want you to see the other 9 hours, 59 minutes and 50 seconds of what they said.

There's a reason for that.

These people are desperate. They think the American people care, and they really don't. Just not for the reasons they think. We saw what happened on January 6th. A lot of it wasn't good, no doubt idiots fighting with police need to be punished. But that was so few people. A lot more walked in open doors, doors held open by Capitol Police, and asked for directions to locations to get really good selfies. Was our republic threatened by that? Of course not.

But reality doesn't matter. Democrats are so terrified of facing voters this fall on their record that they're scrambling to find something else, anything else so they can point and scream at Republicans that "THEY ARE A THREAT TO DEMOCRACY!!!" They need to charge Donald Trump with something, anything, for that to stand a chance of helping them. Stalin is blushing.

The idea of a campaign run under the banner of "I know we suck, but they're worse" is not exactly something the majority of Americans will rally around. As more and more Democrats come to that realization, expect them to get even crazier. That's why I hope, no matter what Trump decides about 2024, he doesn't announce anything until AFTER the election. The prospect of Trump has them going insane in every direction, the reality of him (either way) would give them focus. When your enemy is destroying themselves, get out of the way and let them.

Derek Hunter is the host of a free daily podcast (subscribe!), host of adaily nationally syndicated radio show, and author of the book,Outrage, INC., which exposes how liberals use fear and hatred to manipulate the masses, and host of the weekly "Week in F***ing Review" podcast where the news is spoken about the way it deserves to be.Follow him on Twitter at @DerekAHunter.

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Why Democrats Are Desperate to Charge Trump With Anything - Townhall

Senator Raphael Warnock speaks during a Working for Georgia campaign rally in Conyers, Georgia, on August 18. Polls over the past month have consistently shown Warnock, who is up for reelection this fall, leading Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker by single digits. Photo: Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg via Getty Images

With just 11 weeks until Election Day, Democrats are trying to defy two close-to-ironclad rules of electoral politics: Parties that hold the presidency almost always perform poorly in the midterms, and their performance tracks fairly closely with the presidents approval rating. But while President Biden remains unpopular, a confluence of factors has put Democrats in a significantly better position than expected. Can it last? I spoke with Amy Walter, the publisher and editor-in-chief of the venerable Cook Political Report, to try to divine the answer.

Electorally speaking, everything suddenly seems to be breaking Democrats way. Among other developments: Gas prices are plummeting; inflation is coming down, albeit slowly;the party finally passed very significant parts of its agenda; and the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade seems to be galvanizing voters in Kansas and elsewhere. Youve got all these Senate polls from key states that are very encouraging for Democrats, and last week, Mitch McConnell said candidate quality may prevent Republicans from gaining the one seat they need to retake the chamber. Do you agree with his assessment right now?There is definitely a shift both in mood and momentum. I think a lot of us who do this for a living are trying to understand whats really behind that. I think there are a number of factors. The first is where the media focus has been for about the last four to six weeks, especially compared to where it was a year ago at this time. A year ago, what were we talking about? We were talking about the withdrawal in Afghanistan and all the problems that ensued. We were talking about the rise of inflation. We were talking about the fact that the administration was struggling to get ahold of the new Delta variant. You had all of those things in the media Zeitgeist.

What have we talked about for most of this summer? The January 6th hearings. Weve been talking and hearing a lot about the overturning of Roe v. Wade and whats next on abortion access. Weve been talking a lot about Donald Trump and not just with the FBI Mar-a-Lago situation but the candidates hes been endorsing and the folks running on platforms that rely heavily on election denial. I think this is one big reason for the shift were seeing. Instead of territory thats very problematic for Democrats, were now on terrain thats very problematic for Republicans. So then I get to the next piece, which is, Are Americans actually feeling better, and feeling better about the Democrats? I wrote about that, but its a little muddled.

You wrote that the fundamentals havent changed all that much.Right. The presidents not much more popular than before. The economy is better, but its still not great. Are people more optimistic? What Im really going to be watching for in these next couple of months is not whether voters think the economy has suddenly recovered or that everythings awesome but whether Americans are more optimistic. I think it helps Democrats if theres a sense that things are at least headed in the right direction and that they have something to sell to voters to say, Were actually doing something. Were taking this seriously. Were focused on the things that people care about.

At the end of 2021 and into much of 2022, if you looked at polling Navigator polling specifically because they do this in a really smart way people would be asked, What do you think Congress and Democrats should be focused on? And then What do you think theyre focused on? Theres been this big disconnect where voters are like, Well, what wed really like for them to do is deal with inflation or the economy. And they say instead, Well, theyre doing COVID, or theyre doing voting rights, but theyre not really focused on the stuff that matters to me.

It seems smart, then, that Democrats named this huge bill the Inflation Reduction Act when it actually has very little to do with inflation.Correct. It was interesting. Weve got to be careful not to extrapolate too much, but what I thought was interesting when I listened to voters in one focus group these are white men who either had voted for Trump in 2016 but voted Biden in 2020 or they voted for Trump but were like, Ugh, Im not a real big fan of his it was interesting to listen to them because it seemed as if they were agreeing that Democrats seemed to be at least doing something. One guy said, Well, at least they dont look like theyre sitting on their hands and saying, Not our problem. I think thats been very helpful to Democrats. But the question going forward is, Is it enough? Do voters need to actually believe that, because Democrats are now passing legislation called the Inflation Reduction Act, theyve now turned the ship around? Or do they believe that Democrats are still not as good as Republicans at handling these issues?

Bidens approval rating is in the low 40s right now, which is an improvement but also around where Trumps was at this time in 2018. How long can the party outpace those fundamentals with a presidential rating that bad?Thats what everybodys scratching their head about. I think Senate Democrats have done a good job of spending these months building up their profile, and theyve spent a whole lot of money building a positive story, a positive image for themselves. So many of them have spent millions and millions of dollars already on television. Mark Kelly, I think, is a prime example of that. So if, at the end of November or whatever, after Election Day, we come back and we say, Wow, how did Democrats hold the Senate? I think well look to the following: One, candidate quality. Two, the ability for Democrats to define themselves outside of Biden by spending a lot of money early on and building their profile. And three, Biden improving and the economy improving just enough that those candidates can rise above what would be a big shackle around them.

Going to your original question about the Republican candidates, I do think its a real problem. Because what so many voters have seen from Republican Senate candidates is a focus on things that are really important to Republican base voters. Do you have Trumps endorsement? Do you think that Americas too woke? Do you think that the transgender kids shouldnt play sports? Whatever it is.

Culture-war stuff.Culture-war stuff, with Trump at the center of it all, instead of really tackling the major issue here, which is, Do you think Democrats are doing a good job on the fundamental issues in this country? We know Republicans are going to reestablish that argument postLabor Day, but will it be too late? And are there other problems, other baggage, that makes it harder for them to be seen as credible? If Republicans had nominated candidates who were less controversial, had less baggage, were stronger just in terms of the quality of their profile, would they be doing better?

The Senate is in play, but most people have treated it as pretty much a foregone conclusion that Republicans will win the five seats needed to retake the House. However, FiveThirtyEight now rates Democrats as having about a one-in-five chance of keeping it. That would be a true shocker with few precursors. Do you actually see a universe where it happens?We have readjusted our range for Republican pickup downward.Were seeing that the red wave does not look as big today as it did a few months back. We were talking about somewhere in the range of 25 to 30 or 35 seats. Now its 15 to 20-something seats as the range. So were paring down the expectations. But the House is a different beast than the Senate. With the amount of money going into Senate races now, theyre almost mini-presidential campaigns in every state. Were talking about hundreds of millions of dollars.

Theyre so nationalized now in a way that they werent even a few years ago.Exactly. Thats what makes this really fascinating. We have a country that is as polarized as ever and fewer and fewer people flipping their allegiance or splitting their tickets. In some ways, that should mean that the party out of power benefits, the theory being its less about persuasion and its more about turnout. But I think whats been clear even before the Roe decision, though I think the Roe decision definitely pumped this up, is that were not seeing the drop-off that we may traditionally see in midterm elections for the party in power. The intensity is usually on the out-partys side. I just dont think thats going to be there this time.

It reminds me of what we saw in 2018. Democrats did well that year especially on the House side not necessarily because they turned out at levels that were so much higher than Republicans. They had better turnout, for sure. But what they also did was win over independent voters by double digits. Thats the other thing to watch as we go into this next 80 days. Its not so much just whether Democrats are going to turn out their voters because theyre all fired up. Its about independent voters. Thats going to come into focus, I think, once we get into September.

Yeah, in the post-2016 world, were living suddenly in a universe of high turnout all the time even for off-year elections. In the 2014 midterms, Democrats were completely unenthusiastic, and Republicans rode their wave of Obama disapproval.Its hard to imagine that happening again in our current climate.Both sides are really turning out. What makes for a 2014-like scenario or maybe even, if you go back in time to the quote-unquote olden days, the pre-2008 era is depressed turnout. Two thousand six, I think, was a really good example of this.

With everybody turning out, its hard to win in a red state if youre a Democrat.Its hard to win in a blue state if youre a Republican. You win in those purple places. Part of the way you win in the purple places is you get your side out, they get their side out, but you get those not-as-attached partisans we can call them soft partisans or independents to come to your side. Again, if you look just at the fundamentals, youd say, Well, what are those folks going to be interested in? Where are they in terms of the way they are thinking about this upcoming election?Who do they think is going to handle the economy better? Who do they think is going to help focus on the issues that matter to them, their day-to-day concerns? On those issues, Republicans have continued to have a pretty significant advantage with independent voters. But those voters are also probably feeling somewhat cross-pressured when they see Roe v. Wade being overturned and they think Republicans are more interested in fighting the ghosts of 2020 than for me.

As a polling obsessive, Ive learned to be wary of some of these surveys, particularly in certain states like in Wisconsin, where we have polls showing Mandela Barnes beating Ron Johnson. In 2016 and 2010, Johnson was supposed to be totally dead in the water according to polling. Then he won easily. Weve seen that pattern repeat a lot in recent years in states, particularly in the Midwest but not only there: North Carolina, Florida, Maine. Then you have other states where polls have been dead on, like Georgia. As a forecaster, how do you account for these enormous misses?You have to have a healthy dose of I dont know if skepticism is the right word, but you just have to be realistic. I think I am doing a couple of things. One is that I am not taking each and every poll and saying, Well, thats absolutely wrong or Thats absolutely right. Im marrying it with other things were seeing and appreciating and understanding about what is going on in that state beyond the individual race.Again, were all scratching our heads on this. Its not just that those polls have been off; its that in every one of those polls, we see that the Democratic Senate candidate is ahead of Biden and is ahead of, in many cases, a Democrat running for governor. I go, Hmmm.

Im looking at the presidents approval rating as a key indicator, not the only indicator. I do think youre right that we do have to be cautious not to be so attached to each and every one of these polls. Im trying to do a couple of things. One, just see where the mood is in that state overall. Thats the qualitative work with focus groups and others, trying to get at what people are grappling with. And then trying to just be sure were really appreciating the underlying dynamics in these races that go beyond the head-to-head numbers.

Back in ancient history, a few weeks ago, Democrats were struggling so badly that some officials were openly hoping Donald Trump would announce a reelection campaign before the midterms to boost turnout. That was the partys last best hope. But now that things have turned around, to what extent does Trumps ubiquity in the news which would obviously go into overdrive if he declared his candidacy affect midterm races?I think its definitely affected things in that it has turned the midterms away from just a pure referendum on Biden into a choice between two unpopular politicians. That is certainly a better situation if youre in a state that is purple and a Democrat. Its a great situation in a state thats blue and that went for Biden by bigger numbers. Virginia gave us a great road map here. I think part of why the Terry McAuliffe hair on fire about Donald Trump didnt work in Virginia is that it seemed just out of nowhere. He was just crying wolf. Its not as much of a cry at this moment. But youre not going to see Democrats put Donald Trump in their ads thats not how this is going to work. And much like in 2018, you dont see candidates talking about Donald Trump. Voters are very well aware.

Hes ambient. Hes in the atmosphere.Hes ambient. Thats a good way to say that. So if what youre hearing from voters isnt, Oh my gosh, Im so frustrated about how terrible the Biden administrations doing. Why arent they fixing the economy? Why did Biden screw up Afghanistan? How come Democrats cant get their act together in Congress? Instead of that coming out of voters mouths, what it is now is more like Gosh, things are still pretty messy. I hate that were still so divided. You hear things like that. Theyre more upset at the political system than at one political party. Thats a much better place to be if you are the party thats completely in charge than where we were two months ago.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

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Could Democrats Really Pull Off a Miracle in November? - New York Magazine

When I asked Skye Perryman, the president of Democracy Forward, about the resonance of democracy in the midterms, she mentioned health care, the minimum wage, education, the school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, and economic unrest all as issues of concern to voters.

What we see every day is people deeply concerned about democracy and about the broader promise of democracy what are their wages going to be, what is their economic opportunity going to be, can they educate their kids, are they going to be able to raise their kids in safe communities? These are broader democracy issues, she said. There is a movement that is seeking to eradicate and undermine the very foundation of our democracy But that same movement is also engaged in a range of conduct that is harmful to people and communities, and that is a democracy issue, too.

Democratic messaging about democracy itself may pick up once Trump announces hes running again for president, as is widely expected, especially if Biden seeks a second term.

Biden, who was in the Senate even before Carter got to Washington, is steeped in institutional concerns. He cast his 2020 campaign broadly as a return to democratic norms, and in a preview of his likely messaging in 2024, he said of Trump last month: You cant be pro-insurrection and pro-democracy. You cant be pro-insurrection and pro-American.

If the electorates attention to threats to democracy can be fleeting, said John Anzalone, the longtime Biden pollster, the fact is, in some ways we forget democracy worked.

The fact is that we had a threat, Anzalone said, referring to the 2020 election. America rose up, and it kicked its ass.

Still, he said it wouldnt surprise anyone if Biden or Democrats running in some midterm elections make it more of an issue as the campaign season unfolds.

There may still be time for that. Most of the partys paid messaging will not come until after Labor Day. Democrats in some races are issuing fundraising appeals based on their opponents statements about elections, and they have found criticizing Republicans for election denialism effective when wrapped into a broader critique of a candidate as extreme.

On the call in November with the Carter group, Gephardt, who is 81 and living in Florida, said, Us old people dont have much of an audience And we shouldnt. Were has-beens. But we love this country, we love this democracy, and weve got to play the role of Paul Revere.

But that was in November. This spring, the Carter group met less often, disrupted by a run of deaths and memorial services for members of the group or people close to them. Between March and May, among other people, Albright and two former House representatives Vic Fazio and Norman Mineta, also a former transportation secretary passed away. There was a memorial service in May for Walter Mondale, the former vice president who, before his death last year, had been a regular on the calls.

By the time the group resumed its regular meetings earlier this summer, the anxiety some members had about democracy in the fall was no less severe. In some ways, they were even more dispirited. (Carter was aware of the groups meetings, Francis said, but has yet to participate in one. He has publicly warned the country is at risk of losing our precious democracy, while the Carter Center, long involved in monitoring elections abroad, turned its focus to the United States for the first time in 2020.)

Its conventional wisdom among pro-democracy activists globally that one strategy for protecting the ballot is to boost pro-democracy candidates regardless of their party. But instead, in a handful of states including Michigan, Maryland and Pennsylvania, Democratic groups had been meddling in Republican primaries, spending millions of dollars elevating pro-Trump hard-liners they believed would be easier for Democrats to defeat in the fall.

It may have been smart politics. In Maryland, the candidate helped by the Democratic Governors Association, Dan Cox a state lawmaker who organized buses to Washington for the rally preceding the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 is running in such a heavily Democratic state that he is almost certain to lose. By helping to sink Rep. Peter Meijer of Michigan, one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee may have given Democrats a better chance of flipping a congressional seat there.

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There's a Huge Divide Among Democrats Over How Hard to Campaign for Democracy - POLITICO

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) mocked Democratic Mayors Muriel Bowser and Eric Adams for their utter hypocrisy over concerns of illegal immigrants being bused to their cities.

The mayor of [Washington,] D.C., Muriel Bowser, has said that the 6,000 illegal immigrants that Texas has put on buses and sent up to D.C. has created a crisis and it is unacceptable and has to stop. Now, that is just 6,000, Cruz explained on his Verdict podcast. We ought to send 600,000 600,000 would be roughly one-sixth of the number of illegal immigrants who have come in under Joe Biden.

SEE IT: BIDENS PINOCCHIO NOSE GROWS IN NYC BILLBOARD

By the way, if she doesnt like it, she is a member of the Democrat Party. The person responsible for these 3.5 million [people] lives in her city, Cruz continued.

The Republican senator also blasted Adams for considering it a successful idea to send New Yorkers to campaign against Texas Gov. Greg Abbott for reelection.

"I have to admit that I had some great joy responding and said, 'Well, actually, to be fair, there are already thousands of busloads of New Yorkers fleeing New York and coming to Texas, and Eric Adams is driving them away, Cruz said.

Cruz suggested those crossing the southern border should also be sent to places such as Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, south Hampton, Cupertino, California, and Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, where Biden vacations.

Every place that rich liberals sit and swirl Chardonnay, Cruz suggested. They ought to sit there and watch busload after busload of illegal immigrants unloading.

It reveals the utter hypocrisy of the Left, Cruz added. Theyre willing to cause human suffering as long as it doesnt impinge on the view from their golf course.

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When pressed about the concerns of Bowser and Adams, the Biden administration has deflected reporters questions, accusing Texas of using the migrants as political pawns.

Well, the question is to Gov. Abbott. Why is he using migrants as a political pawn in doing what he's doing?" White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said earlier this month. "There's a legal process here, and he's not using that legal process."

Excerpt from:
'Utter hypocrisy': Ted Cruz blasts Democrats criticizing immigrants in their cities - Washington Examiner