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Ahead of the states August 9 primary, the Supreme Courts Roe decision supercharged competition among the leading Democratic contenders to take on Johnson. Their jostling illustrates the partys intense focus on picking the best candidate to capitalize on progressive energy over the high court ruling, which halted Planned Parenthoods abortion procedures in the state.

We need people who are willing to step up to get rid of the filibuster and to pass the laws in this country that we so desperately need, said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). We need pro-choice fighters.

Warren, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) are backing Mandela Barnes, Wisconsins 35-year-old lieutenant governor whos led the polls for months. However, 34-year-old Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry is catching up down the stretch after spending millions of his own dollars.

Thats not all: Sarah Godlewski, the 40-year-old state treasurer, and Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, 46, fill out the top tier of candidates in a state with a history of surprising Democratic primaries.

All four candidates offer a generational contrast from the tempestuous Johnson, who at 67 is running for his third term after twice beating former Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.). Each Democratic candidate wants to eliminate the filibuster to preserve Roe, and none believe in any abortion restrictions.

The biggest difference among them is on adding seats to the Supreme Court, a liberal goal that Nelson supports, Barnes is open to and Godlewski and Lasry oppose.

Progressive Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) agreed that little separates the quartet on abortion. But with the stakes so high for Democrats, all four are going full-tilt to present themselves as the primary fields biggest abortion rights advocates.

Barnes, whod be the states first Black senator if elected, says his record in Wisconsin politics is as a very dear friend to Planned Parenthood. Lasry says his wifes work for Planned Parenthood in Wisconsin allows him to see firsthand every day the fight for abortion rights. Godlewski says she can more effectively prosecute the case against Johnson as the Democratic primarys only woman, while Nelson touts his ratings with abortion rights groups.

The race has a decidedly Midwest-nice vibe, with the candidates generally staying publicly trained on Johnson rather than each other though theres plenty of trash-talking behind the scenes. And since Democrats need to beat Johnson to have any hope of executing their agenda next year, party leaders are trying to keep it that way.

If anyone does anything unfair, I call them first, personally. And if they dont stop doing it, Ill call them out publicly. I havent had to do that yet, the second part. Ive had to do the first part a couple of times, said Pocan, who is neutral in the Senate primary and described his role as just trying to keep peace.

That may become more difficult as national attention turns to the four-way swing-state skirmish. In an interview, Barnes sharply questioned nominating a wealthy candidate like Lasry or Godlewski to take on Johnson, himself a wealthy conservative businessman.

If our case to voters is that our multimillionaire is better than Republicans multimillionaire? I dont see that as a winning message. People are tired of the millionaires club. They want people in Washington to understand exactly what theyre going through, Barnes said.

Asked to respond, Lasry said he doesnt want to engage in a sideshow but took a subtle shot himself.

What voters are tired of is these career politicians with no record of accomplishment ... just always looking for the next thing to run for, Lasry said.

In this Oct. 24, 2020, file photo, Milwaukee Bucks senior vice president Alex Lasry, left, and then-Bucks guard George Hill walk through a Milwaukee neighborhood during a voter canvassing effort.|Steve Megargee/AP Photo

Godlewski said she launched her campaign with abortion-access messaging, adding a jab that when you look at other people in this race, they just decided to talk about it recently.

But if theres anyone truly testing Pocans peacemaker skills in the Senate primary, its Nelson, whos running as the purest progressive.

Its one thing to be a defender of womens reproductive rights in a blue part of the state, quite different in a red or purple part of the state, Nelson said of his time in the state legislature. Mandela was there for two terms, but he represented one of the most Democratic and pro-choice districts in the state. You know, whoop-dee-doo.

Barnes led the latest Marquette University poll with 25 percent of 369 Democratic primary voters, while Lasry had 21 percent, Godlewski 9 percent and Nelson 7 percent. Several Democrats recalled Feingold coming out of nowhere in 1992 to win the partys Senate nomination with iconic ads claiming an endorsement from Elvis and declaring he wouldnt stoop to his opponents mudslinging.

In other words, people in the state warn that a whole lot can change in six weeks, and all four candidates look competitive with Johnson. Moreover, more than a third of the primary electorate is undecided, a sign that Wisconsins primary is under-the-radar just five weeks before Election Day.

That race has been competitive all along. And not a lot of people have been talking about it, said Sen. Ben Ray Lujn (D-N.M.), who said the Senate Democrats campaign arm is smart to remain neutral.

According to the candidates, however, the Roe reversal as well as Johnsons anti-abortion position and confusing answers about his staff forwarding a false-electors note on Jan. 6 has brought the messy primary to the forefront of voters minds. Barnes said he had his best fundraising day ever the day of the Supreme Court decision, and Lasry said it crystallized the stakes of this election against Johnson.

It really shook up the race, Nelson said. The pro-choice side has been on defense for the last 50 years, and now theyre on offense.

Johnson praised the Supreme Court decision on abortion but said it will be up to the states to figure out specific abortion policies. Thats proven difficult in Wisconsin, which has a Democratic governor, a GOP-controlled legislature and an 1849 law restricting abortion. As Godlewski put it: Were not going to be able to get this done at the state level. So our only hope is to get this done at the federal level.

Thats going to require a straight flush from Democrats: keep the House, protect all of their Senate incumbents and pick up two seats, probably including Wisconsin. With anti-filibuster John Fetterman winning Pennsylvanias Democrat Senate nomination already, that makes the primary in Americas Dairyland among the most vital political dates left on the calendar this year for Democrats.

Unless we take out Ron Johnson, were never gonna have the majority in the Senate, Pocan said. Were trying to keep everyone focused on the prize.

The rest is here:
The Democratic primary that could determine the future of abortion rights - POLITICO

Hillary Scholten was walking down the street in Grand Rapids last Friday morning when the news alert popped onto her phone. She had known since early May, of course, that the Supreme Court was poised to overturn Roe v. Wade, thanks to the leak of a draft decision. But the reality still hit hard. Record scratch. The day changed, Scholten tells me. I was with my campaign manager, who is a young woman, and we just looked at each other with horror on our faces. My sister called. I felt like crying. And yet, we have no time for tears. What are we going to do?

What Scholten did was amp up her campaign schedule for the weekend. She is the Democratic nominee for a western Michigan congressional district that is currently represented by Republican Peter Meijer, and Scholtens race is emblematic of the challenge facing Democrats nationally: Can they convert anger about the Supreme Courts abortion decision into electoral momentum, and overcome what still shapes up as a very difficult midterms landscape? Polling right after the Roe ruling was encouraging, with Democrats pulling further ahead in a generic ballot. Yet John Anzalonewho is President Joe Bidens pollster and whose firm is advising Scholtens campaignremains cautious, if somewhat more optimistic.

The trifecta of whats dominating the newsthe Supreme Court opinions banning abortion and permitting guns, and the January 6 hearings, which have been pretty intensethe Republicans are on the wrong side of those in terms of public opinion, Anzalone says. In some ways it gives us hope that on the messaging side, we can really compete. Does it mean that were not going to lose the House? No, Im not saying that. But theres a big difference between losing seven or 10 seats and losing 35. This absolutely has an impact to swing races to a bunch of Democrats.

The marginand any chance of the Democrats holding on to their House majoritywill turn on races like Scholtens. Two years ago she lost to Meijer, the heir to a supermarket fortune, by six points. Redistricting, however, has made the playing field distinctly more favorable to Scholten. In 2020 Donald Trump carried Michigans old third district by three points; the new district would have gone to Biden by eight points. Trump has endorsed John Gibbs, Meijers Republican primary opponent, as payback for Meijers vote in favor of impeachment. If Gibbs wins the nomination in August, it would hand Scholten a stark contrast in the general election: Gibbs has backed Trumps election lies, and has said that striking down Roe is great news for women.

Scholten, 40, is a compelling, unusual Democratic candidate. She grew up in a Republican family, attending the evangelical Christian Reformed Church twice on Sundays and once on Wednesdays and remains proudly active in the faith. Scholten served as an immigration lawyer in the Obama administration Justice Department before returning home to Grand Rapids to work as a public interest lawyer. That kind of varied background should be a significant asset, because Democrats cant count on the heat of the Roe moment lasting from now through November. Theres a real divide between the D.C.-based consultants and people who are on the ground in these districts, a Democratic strategist says. The D.C. class says, Oh, yeah, were going to run on choice. Theyre missing [the fact] that public safety and inflation are the real motivators this cycle.

Democratic candidates everywhere are also fighting against disappointment that the party hasnt delivered more of substance after winning the White House and the House in 2020. We have more to do, says New York congressman Sean Patrick Maloney, who is the head of the Democrats congressional campaign arm, and who naturally tries to put a positive spin on a year of frustrating legislative setbacks for Democrats stemming from dissension in their own ranks. But I dont think the story here is that House moderates or progressives let anybody down. They stayed constructive and engaged. We did our work and passed the presidents agenda, and it came within one or two votes in the Senate.

Scholten believes the reaction to the Roe decision will be wide and deep, but shes careful not to become a one-issue candidate. Im a working mom of two young kids who feels the pain at the pump, she says. I look at my neighbor whos working two jobs, as a day-care provider and a waitress, and can barely make ends meet. People here know that big oil and big gas is taking its cut, and that our current congressman voted against a cap on the price of insulin. Thats something that deeply matters in this district.

She is artful about whether the leader of her party, whose public approval is currently 16 points underwater, will be an asset or a hindrance in the race. You know, President Biden isnt on the ballot this time around, Scholten says. Certainly folks are going to be voting on where we are in terms of this country. But we also have a major gubernatorial race here. Governor [Gretchen] Whitmers at the top of the ticket and her approval ratings are high right now.

Losing two years ago somehow didnt discourage Scholten from taking on a battle where shes likely to be the target of Trumps attacks. She even manages to laugh at the prospect. As a woman running for public office, you have to accept a lot of challenges, she says. Im ready for anything.

Read this article:
We Have No Time for Tears: If Democrats Want to Hold the House They Need to Win Districts Like This One - Vanity Fair

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In the week since the Supreme Court revoked the constitutional right to abortion, President Bidenurged people to vote. Speaker Nancy Pelosi said abortion rights are on the ballot. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said electing more pro-choice Democrats would help restore abortion rights.

But none of the top Democrats who control two of the three branches of government acknowledged their own power to do much of anything now, including confronting the democratic failures that have brought the United States to this unprecedented place: Justices appointed by presidents elected by a minority of Americanstaking away a popular right essential to equality and autonomy for half the population.

Only a handful of progressives are placing the Supreme Courts decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in the context where it belongs: Americas fraying democracy. The ruling is Roe, but the crisis is democracy, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) tweeted Saturday. Leaders must share specific plans for both.

Several additional progressives in Congress have called for expanding the Supreme Court and abolishing the filibuster to restore abortion rights with federal legislation. Yet no one in Democratic leadership seems to betalking publicly about these possibilities. Despite the dire consequences of Roe v. Wades demise for millions of Americans, theres almost no urgency from those at the top to propose much of anything other than yet more requests that people vote in November.

To understand the Democrats political response to the end of Roe, I spoke with Anat Shenker-Osorio, a progressive messaging consultant, about how to talk about abortion in this new era. Shenker-Osorio has advised both the Congressional Progressive Caucus and the House Democratic Caucus, and also helped craft messaging for campaigns in both Ireland and Australia to repeal abortion restrictions. We spoke just a few hours after the Supreme Courts ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Womens Health Organization on Friday about the politics of abortionand how Democrats are failing to connect abortion rights to other freedoms. (The conversation has beenedited for length and clarity.)

As someone who studies messaging and advises Democrats, how are you thinking about what needs to happen next?

One of the things that we learned from the [2018] Irish campaign to repeal the ban on abortion in Ireland, which was massively successful, was someone you love. Someone you love will need an abortion someday. And that idea that actually, Guess what? This is going to impact you, whether your physical body or you via the connection that you have with a sibling, with a co-worker, or with a friend. Someone you love. This is your issue.

And then the other [message], which is not contradictory, is that abortion has to be situated inside of a broader framework, which is the idea that Trump Republicans want to take away our freedoms. From our freedom to vote and pick leaders who represent us in free and fair elections to our freedom to decide for ourselves whether and when we have children, to our childrens freedom to learn the truth of our history, to our freedom to not be plagued by gun violence. They want to take away our freedoms and rule only for the wealthy white few. We have to draw this exceptionally stark contrast in November between the worlds that the majority of Americans of different political affiliations desire and what this right wing authoritarian faction is doing.

So what youre saying is basically that people should be talking about the end of abortion rights as part of a larger agenda?

Completely. And I think that what were seeing right now, for example, with the January 6 [hearings], is this effort to essentially rule over and not represent us. And so thats another rhetorical way to draw the connection for people. We see in our research that this is something that people understand: that [the right wing] is hell-bent on overturning the will of the people, whether that be through violent insurrection or through five secretive people in black robes, or through state legislatures that are silencing peoples voices and taking away their votes. They want to overturn the will of the people.

There are some people in the Democratic tent who have been talking about democracy and the connectedness of all of these things. AOC is an example. But it doesnt seemlike the party more broadly or its leaders have wanted to describe this as an issue of democracy. Youre saying they should push further into that territory?

The word democracynot the concept, but the wordis not a particularly helpful one. Its far too abstract for people to feel any kind of visceral attachment to it. And lets just be honest with ourselves: For many, many people in our country, including core elements of the Democratic base, theyve never experienced a democracy. We dont live in a democracy.

So when people say things like, We need to step up and protect our democracy or, We need to ensure the future of our democracy, that both rings hollow for a great number of audiences and, thats just not true. You cant protect the thing you dont have. You can say things like, realize the promise of our democracy, or finally have the democracy that we deserve.

But democracy is not that particularly helpful of a word, because democracy never bought anybody dinner. It doesnt connect back to the things that are top of mind for people. And so what do you need to do? You need to draw these broader connections, but you need to attach it back to what feels tangible to people. [Democrats] need to bring it back to what is this going to mean for what I need in my life, and thats not what the word democracy does, unfortunately.

Do you find a receptive audience when you talk about constructing these broader narratives? Or does it feel like the Democratic Party is doing thispiecemeal?

There are state-based groups and even state-based parties that have absolutely embraced this kind of overarching connective tissue. For example, Stacey Abrams obviously does this brilliantly. Does it happen more broadly? There are leaders in the Democratic Party who do it some of the time, I think that its increasingly on display in the discourse from and about the January 6 criminal conspiracy. But generally speaking,when were talking about abortion, were talking about abortion. When were talking about education, were talking about education. When were talking about fill in the blank, were talking about fill in the blank. And yeah, thats completely a mistake.

Thats something that the right has demonstrated and perfected. They have an overarching concept, like Make America Great Again, and that is a signaling mechanism with which they can talk about every single issue. Make America Great Again is a discourse that has something to say about taxes, has something to say about schooling, has something to say about work, has something to say about immigrants, etc. So having an overarching message or an overarching value proposition into which we can then slot our arguments about every particular issue is incredibly important.

Coming back to abortion, a majority of Americans support Roe and support access to abortion care. The fact that Roe has been overturned is not because people dont approve ofit. Its not because a majority of the people voted for the president who appointed the justices who overturned it. It must be frustrating trying to get people to vote on an issue that shouldnt even have to be a thing because the majority is already there for it.

You just handily, compactly explained how we dont live in a democracy.

Is that why it has to be discussed as a democracy issue? Because the majority is already there and exists?

Its a very hard story to explain to people. The casino is rigged. The house always wins. And yet we need you to come back to the casino and place another bet. And were going to explain to you how you need to place another bet by giving you an explanation of just how thoroughly the casino is rigged.

What we have to do is draw this exceptionally stark contrast between what [voters] believe in, what they want for themselves, for their country, for their children, etc and this authoritarian faction that is hell-bent on taking away our freedoms. So we cant make an abstract argument about democracy itself. We have to highlight the democracy concept by talking about things like your freedom to decide who governs in your name, your kids freedom to learn the truth of our past, your kids freedom to be who they are without intimidation, and their freedom to go to school without fearing theyre going to be shot in some mass killing.

With Roe gone, do you see an opportunity to talk about abortion in a different way? While, again, acknowledging the futility that you shouldnt have to be talking about it in a different way because a majority of people already support abortion rights.

There was a choice made once upon a time to argue Roe on privacy grounds and not equity grounds. What that sounded like in messaging was US, out of my uterus. Keep your laws off my body. My child, my choice. That was the second wave feminist refrain: a privacy argument that relies upon a libertarian framework that says, in essence, that government is an interfering terrible force.The reproductive justice critique that was made long, longago by Black women scholars and leaders was about the inadequacy of that approach. [The privacy approach] delivered us the Hyde Amendment. If youre making the argument that this is an issue in which government doesnt belong, then, alright, well, were not going to force insurance companies to pay for it. And were not going to provide it as part of any kind of national programs. And were not going to make state-based medical schools train practitioners in how to do this.

Without relying on this libertarian framework, how can you discuss abortionas a right?

You say: Someone you love will need an abortion some day and what will you do then? What will they do then? We need to turn out in record numbers to ensure that Trump Republicans cannot take away our freedoms and the freedoms of our loved ones.

A majority of people have supported [abortion rights] for a while. And that got us here. So in order to make this a turnout issue, Democrats have to convince people that turning out actually will manifest in some change. [Showing them that] when Democrats retain the House majority and grow the Senate majority, these are the ways that we are going to ensure care for your family, and have your freedom and rights respected.

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Democrats Need to Realize That the End of Roe Is About More Than Abortion Mother Jones - Mother Jones

Data: FactSet, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Chart: Jacque Schrag/Axios

A key indicator of the financial health of Americans has declined steadily for the last 14 months, in yet another ominous sign from the economy that Democrats will face tough midterm elections.

Driving the news: Real per capita disposable income the money consumers can spend after accounting for taxes and inflation is dropping sharply, according to government data released Thursday.

Why it matters: Pollsters, political scientists and economists consider this measure of the household buying power to be, perhaps, the single best economic predictor of election results. Rising real incomes tend to predict rising vote share for the president's party during the midterm elections, and vice versa.

By the numbers: Real meaning inflation-adjusted per capita disposable income fell to $45,490 in May, down 3.6% from the previous year.

The big picture: In a recent note attempting to ballpark the outlook for Democrats in the November elections, Goldman Sachs analysts found that "real disposable income is the strongest predictor of election results among the economic variables we consider."

Longtime Democratic pollster Mark Mellman said on the political podcast "Hacks on Tap" earlier this year that "people look at all kinds of economic indicators unemployment, GDP, growth. The one that is most important politically that people never look at, is change in real disposable income."

Yes, but: This isn't a foolproof predictor of election outcomes. Goldman analysts, for example, note that other key economic indicators such as the still-low unemployment rate historically would suggest that the Democrats should fare well.

The bottom line: Unless something drastic happens and the recent Supreme Court decisions and Jan. 6 hearings could qualify the Democratic party could be up against a whopper of a midterm wave.

Continued here:
Why declining disposable income could spell trouble for Democrats in the midterms - Axios

House Democrats are grumbling their way into the July 4th holiday, dubious that President Bidens proposed gas-tax moratorium would help consumers and frustrated that its highlighted internal party divisions heading into the final months of the midterm campaign.

Withgas pricesapproaching and in some cases topping $5 per gallon across the country, Democratic leaders are scrambling for ways to provide real-time relief for exasperated consumers. Last week, with July 4th looming, Biden used his bully pulpit to champion one such strategy,urgingCongress to suspend the federal gas tax for three months to help ease the financial burden on drivers through the busy summer travel season.

The idea landed like a lead balloon on Capitol Hill, where even some of Bidens closest Democratic allies including Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) gave it a cold reception.

From a practical standpoint, the presidents Democratic detractors are wary that oil companies will simply siphon off the savings for themselves rather than passing it along to consumers. And politically speaking, the critics are irritated that Biden would push an idea he knew to be unpopular among Democratic leaders in Congress, creating an internal rift just as the party is hoping to show a united front heading into Novembers elections.

I think he was trying to send a message to the American people [that] he was listening. But he sure wasnt listening to the congressional leadership, said one House Democratic leader, who spoke anonymously in order to criticize a White House ally. It didnt make things better.

The internal tensions illustrate the frustrations swirling within the Democratic Caucus as inflation has pushed the cost of a host of consumer goods steadily higher since the start of last year, defying the Democrats efforts to keep prices in check, pushing Bidens approval rating well underwater and complicating the Democrats chances of keeping control of the lower chamber in the midterms.

Gas is among the staples that have seen a precipitous cost spike, rising from a national average of $2.33 per gallon in January 2021 to $4.93 last month,according tothe Energy Information Administration. The trend prompted Biden last weekto urgeCongress to suspend the federal gas tax currently at 18.4 cents per gallon and for states to do the same with their local levies.

I fully understand that a gas tax holiday alone is not going to fix the problem, he said, but it will provide families some immediate relief just a little bit of breathing room as we continue working to bring down prices for the long haul.

The idea has won support from some moderate Democrats facing tough reelection contests in November, particularly in the Senate, where a number of vulnerable lawmakers are endorsing legislation to suspend the gas tax until January.

Yet the broader sentiment appears to align Democrats squarely against their White House leader.

Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.) said Bidens objectives are on target, but like many Democrats shes doubtful that the consumer benefits would be anything but paltry.

Im concerned that the gas-tax holiday, which is well-intentioned, would not really make a great deal of impact on individual people. My fear is that we wouldnt feel it, Dean said. The 18.4 cents, the gas companies I think would probably skim off half of it. And so people would see just pennies on the gallon.

I want us to find a solution that actually makes a greater difference, she continued. So were looking at other alternatives.

Among those alternatives is legislation to apply a one-time windfall tax on the major oil companies that have reported record profits this year, even as consumer costs have soared.

Thats one way to go to make a difference to return those excess profits to the American people directly, Dean said.

A senior Democratic aide said Friday that there are no updates on leaderships potential plans to consider either proposal. But if the reaction from party leaders is any indication, the gas tax holiday is going nowhere fast.

Pelosi, who hadoutright rejectedthe tax holiday earlier in the year,put outa tepid statement on Bidens proposal,vowing only to see where the consensus lies on a path forward.

Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.), the chairman of the House Transportation Committee, has ranked among the loudest critics of the tax break, warning that it would provide only minuscule consumer savings while depleting the Highway Trust Fund, which underwrites roads, bridges and other crucial infrastructure.

And House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) has said hes sympathetic to DeFazios funding concerns.

The challenge on the gas tax is: Is the savings really going to flow to the consumer? Or is it going to be pocketed by the oil companies? echoed Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.), chairman of the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee. Those are legitimate questions.

Throughout the debate, administration officials have defended their anti-inflation strategy, arguing that many of the factors driving the painful trend including Russias invasion of Ukraine, supply-chain snags caused by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, and the Federal Reserves decision to keep interest rates at historic lows throughout 2021 were outside of their control.

Biden has already released millions of gallons of oil from the countrysemergency stockpile, known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, in an effort to curb the price at the pump. And the president isplanning a much-anticipated trip to Saudi Arabia this month, though he has said he wont use the visit to press Saudi leaders to increase production.

In that context, officials say, the proposed tax holiday is just one piece of a larger strategy for getting fuel costs under control.

Its one of our highest priorities as an administration, Vice President Harris said this week in an interview with CNNs Dana Bash.

Such sentiments have not won many converts to the gas-tax holiday concept. But even some of those Democrats critical of the proposal said theres value in the fight.

The administration is signaling [that] they realize the pain at the pump, they realize the pain in the grocery stores, said Dean. Were trying to do everything we possibly can.

See more here:
Ahead of July 4th, Democrats frustrated with Bidens gas-tax holiday push - The Hill