Election Results: Democrats Preform Better than Expected But Not in New York ithaca.com
Read more from the original source:
Election Results: Democrats Preform Better than Expected But Not in New York - ithaca.com
ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER
For Democrats, North Carolina has recently been more of a white whale than a bird in hand. No Democrat has won a statewide federal race there since 2008, when former President Barack Obama narrowly won the state by less than 1 percentage point, and the late Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan carried the state by a little over 8 points.
And its not like North Carolina is a solidly red state. It has a partisan lean of R+4.8, putting it in the company of other swing states with competitive Senate races like Wisconsin and Nevada. Since 2008, Democrats have been successful at the statewide level, with wins in both the governors and attorney generals races in 2016 and 2020. But despite some incredibly close, single-digit margins in U.S. Senate races in both 2016 and 2020, Tar Heel Democrats havent been able to break through since Hagans win in 2008. In other words, futile efforts to recreate the magic of 2008 in North Carolina at least in presidential and U.S. Senate races have consistently fallen flat. And although this years Senate race could be the leap Democrats are hoping for, its likely, at least according to our metrics, to be another disappointment.
According to FiveThirtyEights midterm election forecast, Republican Rep. Ted Budd currently has around a 2-in-3 chance of beating Democrat Cheri Beasley, a former chief justice of the state Supreme Court, to succeed retiring Sen. Richard Burr. That doesnt mean the race is a done deal: Our polling average shows a much more competitive race, with the most recent surveys showing the two candidates neck and neck.
But the idea that the race could be close shouldnt comfort Democrats too much. North Carolina is no stranger to close Senate matchups. In fact, in the past three Senate elections, the Democratic candidate has never lost by more than 6 percentage points.
So given Democrats struggles to win federal races in the state, lets run through a couple reasons why Beasley could be the first federal candidate in almost 15 years to win a statewide race and why she could be yet another Democrat to narrowly lose a Senate race in North Carolina.
For starters, Beasley, who already has experience running and winning a statewide race in North Carolina, has so far maintained a significant financial edge over Budd. Her impressive fundraising skills have allowed her to spend over $10 million on TV ads, according to The Cook Political Report, which cited data from AdImpact. Thats in contrast to nearly $2 million from Budd, according to the outlet.
Beasley is also hoping that the states demographics will work in her favor. She hasnt been shy in admitting that she hopes she can gin up support among Black voters, who make up about 22 percent of the citizen voting-age population. And if Beasley wins, shed become the states first Black U.S. senator.
The Democratic Party has been trying hard to put forward candidates who reflect the diversity of the country, said Whitney Manzo, a professor of political science at North Carolinas Meredith College. And I think the party is banking on [Beasley] appealing to voters of color, with the hope that she will energize voters in the same way that Barack Obama did in 2008.
The increased salience of abortion access following the Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Womens Health Organization might also give Beasley a lift something that other Democrats in competitive states are similarly hoping for.
In a September Emerson College poll of likely North Carolina voters, 59 percent of respondents said they were much more likely to vote in the 2022 elections due to the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Twelve percent of respondents also said that abortion was their No. 1 issue heading into the midterm elections a figured dwarfed by the 41 percent who identified the economy as their key issue. Still, considering the tightening race between Beasley and Budd, abortion access alone might be enough to give the Democrat a significant edge at the polls. Beasley, for her part, has repeatedly contrasted her and Budds views on abortion access to mobilize her base. Manzo added that abortion rights in particular could help Beasley woo Republican women particularly those living in the states cities and large metros who werent in favor of the Supreme Courts decision.
Share of North Carolina voters who said that each of the following issues is most important in determining their vote in November
Conducted from Sept. 15-16 among a sample of 1,000 somewhat or very likely voters.
Source: Emerson college/cbs17/The Hill poll
But there are arguably more factors working against the Democrat. For one, even though Budd has trailed Beasley in fundraising, hes received an onslaught of outside help that Beasley just hasnt seen so far. Earlier this month, the Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, began running ads against Beasley that are said to total $16 million. Meanwhile, the equivalent Democratic spending arm, helmed by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, hasnt spent nearly as much on Beasley. Recent estimates show that the Democratic Senate PAC has spent a little under $2 million supporting Beasley and another $2.7 million opposing Budd.
This Senate race has kind of been a sleeper or second-tier kind of a race. It feels like North Carolina and Florida have taken a backseat to Pennsylvania, Georgia, Ohio and Wisconsin, said Michael Bitzer, a professor of politics and history at Catawba College, which is also located in North Carolina. To me, it seems like Beasley is doing everything she needs to do to be competitive and potentially win. But without a financial investment from the Democratic Party, Im not sure that shes going to make it across the finish line.
The high number of unaffiliated voters in North Carolina could also work against the Democrat. According to a 2022 study by the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, over 2.4 million of the states registered voters (about two-thirds of the electorate) are not affiliated with either major political party. According to Manzo, these voters do tend to fall somewhere between Republicans and Democrats, but veer slightly more conservative. I would not see the unaffiliated population of North Carolina as a giant pool of potential support for Cheri Beasley, she said.
North Carolina has also seen an increase in its nonwhite population from 2000 through 2018, according to the Pew Research Center. In 2018, 31 percent of North Carolinas eligible voters were nonwhite an increase of 6 percentage points over the course of almost two decades. While, in theory, this trend should boost Democrats, who tend to do better with nonwhite voters, demographics are not destiny in American politics, and its not clear that Democrats are making inroads with these groups. In 2020, more Hispanic voters in North Carolina were registered as independent/other (89,958) than Democrats (85,538) or Republicans (43,126). Asian American voters in the state are largely unaffiliated, too, but lean Democratic.
And, of course, while North Carolina does have a large Black voting-age population, there hasnt been a concerted effort to get these voters to the polls, according to Bitzer. In Georgia, you saw very focused and intentional registration and mobilization efforts helmed by Stacey Abrams, he said. But nobodys really done something equivalent in North Carolina. Some groups have been trying, but there hasnt been that real long-term investment and focus that I think differentiates North Carolina from Georgia.
Meanwhile, white voters are even harder for Democrats to win. While exit polls in recent elections suggest that white voters in North Carolina are somewhat less firmly in the GOP camp than in, say, Georgia, they still lean quite Republican. In 2016, former President Donald Trump won 63 percent of white voters in North Carolina compared with Democrat Hillary Clintons 32 percent. That same year in Georgia, however, he won white voters by a much larger margin: 75 percent to 21 percent. In the last presidential election, however, President Biden narrowly improved on Clintons margin among white voters in Georgia (30 percent to Trumps 69 percent), but didnt improve much in North Carolina, only winning 33 percent of the states white voters compared to Trumps 66 percent.
Plus, North Carolina has a large number of voters who are evangelical Protestants, who are both more likely to both vote Republican and have conservative attitudes toward certain racial issues. According to exit poll data from CNN, about one-third (35 percent) of North Carolinas voters identified as born-again or evangelical Christians in 2020. Of that number, 86 percent backed Trump, compared with 14 percent who supported Biden. Particularly in rural North Carolina and in the surrounding suburban counties, they make up a core constituency of the base of the Republican Party in the state, Bitzer said.
And, lastly, similar to other Democrats in competitive races this fall, Bidens low approval ratings could drag down Beasley. According to a September High Point University poll, only 34 percent of North Carolinians said they approved of Bidens job performance as president. More than half of surveyed residents (53 percent) said they disapprove of the job Biden is doing. (Its worth noting, though, that Beasley did run about 1.4 points ahead of Biden in 2020, when she lost reelection as Supreme Court Chief Justice by 401 total votes.)
In the end, we still expect this race to be a close one given past Senate margins in North Carolina, and the fact that Beasley is a fairly strong candidate. That September Emerson College survey found Budd and Beasley practically neck and neck in terms of their favorability numbers: Forty-eight percent of voters in North Carolina had a favorable view of the Republican compared with 46 percent who felt the same way about Beasley. Their unfavorability numbers were about the same, too: Thirty-eight percent viewed Budd unfavorably versus 40 percent for Beasley.
So all hope isnt lost for Beasley. Since Democrats dreams of winning a North Carolina Senate race since 2008 has been a sort of pipe dream, its unclear whether she can pull through. But the possibility is still there. In this state, anything could happen, Bitzer told me. So who knows?
Read more:
Are Democrats Heading For Another Disappointment In North Carolina? - FiveThirtyEight
ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER
Pennsylvania was supposed to be the Democrats insurance policy. The states Senate seat is currently held by a Republican, but Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman has comfortably led the race since August. If Democrats win Pennsylvania, their chance of winning the Senate would be 81 in 100. It would even allow them to withstand the loss of one of their own Senate seats (say, in Georgia or Nevada) and still retain control of the chamber.
But according to three recent polls, Fettermans lead is narrowing. According to Suffolk University and USA Today, Fetterman led by 9 percentage points in June, but a Sept. 27-30 poll gave him a 6-point lead. According to Fox News, Fetterman led by 11 points in July but by just 4 points in a Sept. 22-26 poll. And according to Emerson College, Fetterman was up 5 points in August but just 2 points in a Sept. 23-26 poll. As a result of these and other polls, Fetterman has gone from an 11-point lead in FiveThirtyEights polling average on Sept. 13 to a 7-point lead today.
According to the Deluxe version of the FiveThirtyEight forecast, Fettermans chances of being the next junior senator from Pennsylvania have diminished, from 83 in 100 as recently as Sept. 24 to 73 in 100 today.
The shift is due in part to Republicans getting off the fence and supporting the Republican candidate, celebrity physician Mehmet Oz. In the July Fox News poll, 73 percent of Republicans said they supported Oz, and 13 percent were undecided. In the most recent Fox News poll, though, 83 percent of Republicans said they supported Oz, and only 4 percent were undecided. Republicans may have been slow to come around to Oz because he isnt their ideal candidate. Before jumping into politics, he had taken liberal positions on issues such as abortion and gun control. Then, earlier this year, he barely survived a nasty Republican primary against David McCormick and Kathy Barnette. And, according to the most recent Fox News poll, only 38 percent of Oz supporters said they supported him enthusiastically. By contrast, 61 percent of Fetterman supporters said they were enthusiastic about their candidate.
However, this shift is also because Fetterman is losing support. Per Fox News, he led Oz 58 percent to 30 percent among college-educated voters in July. But in September, Fetterman led just 50 percent to 39 percent among these voters. (By contrast, non-college-educated voters barely changed their minds.) And according to Suffolk, Fetterman led among Black voters 71 percent to 6 percent in June, but that lead shrunk to 56 percent to 22 percent in September (17 percent were undecided). This could be because Republican outside groups have spent at least $20 million in recent weeks on attack ads against Fetterman, focusing in particular on the issue of crime and a 2013 incident in which Fetterman pulled a shotgun on a Black jogger.
Pennsylvania isnt the only Senate race that has gotten better for Republicans in the past couple of weeks, though: Wisconsin and Nevada look better for the GOP as well. As a result, Democrats chances of keeping control of the Senate, which was steadily rising since July, has leveled off and even dipped, from a high of 71 in 100 on Sept. 20 to 67 in 100 today. To be sure, Democrats are still favorites to win Pennsylvanias Senate seat and the Senate overall. But if Republicans are looking for reasons for optimism, theyre starting to become visible.
Originally posted here:
John Fettermans Lead In Pennsylvania Is Tightening And So Are Democrats Chances In The Senate - FiveThirtyEight
But both parties acknowledge that those personal views dont automatically translate to wider support for government bans on abortion, either, making it a difficult issue for GOP candidates to lean their campaigns on.
In South Texas, state Democratic Party chair Gilberto Hinojosa said abortion simply is not the wedge issue others predicted it would be, playing a secondary role behind education, inflation and other classic kitchen table issues. While statewide Democratic candidates even in conservative-leaning Texas are advertising on abortion, and Hinojosa says the issue is clearly on the ballot in November, its not playing as well closer to the border. A pair of outside groups House Majority PAC and the political arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus have run ads mentioning abortion in only the most Democratic-leaning South Texas district.
Democrats have long held power in the region, but their influence has been slipping since the 2016 presidential election: In 2020, Democratic support dropped in all three districts by about 7 percentage points, with President Joe Biden capturing nearly 51 percent support there. Then, the 15th District flipped for Trump during last years redistricting.
Cassy Garcia, Republican candidate for Congress in Texas' 28th Congressional District, smiles on stage at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas, Aug. 5, 2022.|LM Otero/AP Photo
The GOP already nabbed one South Texas seat in Congress, after Rep. Mayra Flores won a special election in June, and Republicans are looking to add Cassy Garcia and Monica De La Cruz to their ranks, too. De La Cruz is running for the 15th districts open seat, while Garcia faces Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar in November and Flores is in a member-versus-member contest against Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez.
Abortion isnt absent from the Democratic campaigns: Though the issue ranks low on the priority list for Latinos, the party does have some hope that general disquiet over hardline abortion messaging from the GOP could turn off voters in the region, said Hidalgo County Democrats chair Richard Gonzales.
Weve never been an extreme community, Gonzales said of the county, which is encompassed by two of the battleground districts. Weve always cared about hard work, opportunity, inclusiveness, equality and now, all of a sudden, were having congressional candidates running on a Donald Trump agenda, and that is not who well ever be.
Republicans arent publicly fazed.
Im not concerned with the Dobbs decision affecting Republican candidates in South Texas at all, said Abraham Enriquez, founder of Bienvenido US, an organization dedicated to engaging conservative Latinos. I think, if anything, the Dobbs decision has given an opportunity for voters in South Texas to be more educated and have a more sophisticated understanding on what it is to be pro-life.
Two of the three South Texas matchups feature Republican women running against Democratic male incumbents, Enriquez said, which also gives the GOP candidates some wiggle room and credibility to be outspoken in their anti-abortion beliefs.
In one of those battleground races, Cuellar won his Democratic primary despite getting attacked from the left on abortion.
Hinojosa pointed to Cuellars primary win over attorney Jessica Cisneros, who twice campaigned against him specifically on his anti-abortion beliefs and previous Congressional votes on the issue. In a May runoff, Cuellar eked out renomination over Cisneros by less than 300 votes. His extensive experience in Congress won voters over in the end, Hinojosa said.
This issue of abortion, just one small issue that hes dealt with, but if you look at all the stuff in terms of bringing home the things that are important to voters, hes always been there for South Texas voters and thats why hes been so successful, Hinojosa said.
In the race against De La Cruz in another district, Democrat Michelle Vallejo said she has been a loud advocate for reproductive access throughout the campaign, as her opponent has remained quiet. Her message also includes abortion on a wider healthcare infrastructure platform.
But while theres a big policy gap between the anti-abortion De La Cruz and the pro-abortion rights Vallejo, neither is running broadcast advertisements on the issue. Pro-De La Cruz spots have focused on issues like inflation and immigration, while Vallejos current ads highlight her working-class background and claim her opponent would endanger Medicare.
No election is won on just one issue, and this is something thats become very apparent to me as Ive connected with more and more people throughout our district, Vallejo said of Texas 15th District which runs from McAllen to outside of San Antonio. In addition to speaking with voters about the economy, she continued, the issue of women not having the care they need is something felt across the board with absolutely everyone, and its an issue that we have not shied away from.
See the original post here:
The region where Democrats aren't going all in on the fall of Roe - POLITICO
Rep. Cori Bush, D-MO., touted Democratic "momentum" heading into "Roevember" on Wednesday during MSNBC's "Morning Joe" and said she believed Democrats would hold on to the House.
Host Mika Brzezinski asked Bush how she believed Democrats would fair in the midterm elections.
"Im optimistic. I believe we will hold the House. Im optimistic because since the I will call amazing win with, in New York just a little while ago, we and then also in Alaska, you know, and were seeing the momentum, especially as we get closer to Roevember,' were seeing the momentum really pick up and people that may say, I dont share your views in other areas, but I dont want my right to abortion restricted. Thats been a huge driver over the last several months," Bush said.
"How big of a role is the right to abortion in front of voters minds balanced with their concerns about economic issues?" Politico's Jonathan Lemire asked.
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 30: Congressional Progressive Caucus members Rep. Cori Bush (D-GA) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) talk to reporters before a vote to keep the federal government open until early December outside the U.S. Capitol on September 30, 2021 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
POLL: DEMOCRATS' MIDTERM CHANCES IMPROVE WHILE INFLATION AND ABORTION REMAIN TOP ELECTION ISSUES
Bush said she saw it playing out both ways.
"Ive seen it play out, this is, the abortion rights are the number one issue because some people are looking at its not just about me, its about my children and my childrens children. But also when were talking about economics, people are saying, well, gas prices are going down, but utilities are going up," she said, adding that President Biden has taken steps to "bring costs down."
Bush said the "big push" and the "momentum" was related to reproductive freedom.
She added that she was touring around Missouri to help campaign for Democrats and said they cannot "allow" Republicans to win the Missouri Senate race between Eric Schmitt and Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine.
UNITED STATES - MAY 6: Rep. Cori Bush, D-Mo., testifies during the House Oversight and Reform Committee hearing titled Birthing While Black: Examining Americas Black Maternal Health Crisis, in Rayburn Building on Thursday, May 6, 2021. (Photo By Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
"We have a U.S. Senate race happening that we cannot allow to go to the Republican who is running. We have a horrible Im going to call it horrible candidate for our U.S. Senate seat," she said.
Bush joined ABC's George Stephanopoulos for an interview on Tuesday. He asked the congresswoman about her "defund the police" claims and if she was worried about it hurting her Democratic colleagues in the midterms.
"The thing about defund the police is we have to tell the entire narrative. People hear defund the police. But you know what theyll say? Say reallocate, say divest, say move. But its still the same thing," she responded. "We cant get caught up on the words. People spend more time focusing on the word defund than they spend on caring and addressing the problem of police in this country."
A "Vote Here" sign along the road in Hunterdon County, New Jersey, U.S., on Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2021. (Mark Kauzlarich/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
Bush joined the hosts of "The View" on Tuesday to talk about her new book, "Forerunner." Co-host Alyssa Farah Griffin asked her if Biden is the best Democrat to run in 2024.
"Hes our president right now, he has experience, he has qualifications. I won't say if he's best or if he's not, Ill just say this, he has the qualifications to run. I remember when people said, should I run? People said no, so I cant say that, all I can say if he chooses to run then that will be the nominee," Bush responded.
Hanna Panreck is an associate editor at Fox News.
Read more here:
Rep. Cori Bush touts 'momentum' heading into 'Roevember,' says Democrats will keep the House - Fox News