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Three recent developments indicate that Democrats already shaky political prospects are deteriorating further, and suggest that the party could be on track to experience a historic rout worse than 1994 or 2010 in the midterm elections.

First, the presidents approval rating which has historically been a harbinger of his partys midterm performance hit a new low this week: just one-third (35 percent) of registered voters approve of President Bidens overall performance, while a majority (56 percent) disapprove, according toQuinnipiac polling.

Importantly, Democrats have lost ground with two key segments of their 2020 coalition independents and Hispanics as only one-quarter of adults in each group approve of President Biden, while majorities disapprove.

Republicans also have an advantage in terms of preference for party control of Congress. Nearly one-half (46 percent) of registered voters prefer Republican control, while 41 percent prefer Democratic control. GOP control is also preferred by independents (40 percent-38 percent) and Hispanics (41 percent-38 percent).

To be sure, Democrats declining ratings can be attributed in large part to widespread economic pessimism, which is on par with 2009 levels bymost assessments.

Relatedly, the second development that bodes poorly for Democrats in November is the release of fresh economic data: inflation has hit a 41-year high of 8.6 percent annually, the average price for a gallon of gas is $5, and the stock market is tanking. Now, many economists are warning of an impending recession.

Of course, the stock market is not the economy and, notwithstanding inflationary pressures, the American economy is in fact strong in many respects, which Biden has repeatedly tried to underscore to the public.

But despite the administrations best efforts to highlight positive macroeconomic trends such as increased wages and historically low unemployment everyday Americans, who are witnessing significant market declines and struggling with rising costs, are not convinced.

Indeed, Bidens approval rating on his handling of the economy reached the lowest level of his presidency this week: only 28 percent ofAmericansapprove of Bidens handling of the economy, including just one-fifth of independents (21 percent) and Hispanics (20 percent).

While Democrats are working to shift the national conversation away from the economy and towards hot-button social issues that they have the upper hand on vis--vis public opinion namely, abortion rights in light of the Supreme Courts intention to overturn Roe v. Wade, and gun control following a string of mass shootings it is difficult to envision a scenario where these issues supplant the economy as the top midterm issue.

Nearly one-half (48 percent) of Americans cite economic issues including inflation (21 percent), the economy generally (19 percent) and gas prices (8 percent) as the single most important issue to their midterm vote, according to recent ABC Newspolling.

Comparatively, the same poll which was conducted following the mass shootings in Buffalo and Uvalde, and thus after the news broke about Roe v. Wade showed that gun violence (17 percent) and abortion (12 percent) are prioritized by a much smaller share of voters.

Though Democrats are hoping that the national focus on womens choice and gun control will help the party galvanize their base and make up ground in the midterms, polling unfortunately doesnt bear that out. Republicans currently maintain a 12-point voter enthusiasm advantage over Democrats, 43 percent to 31 percent, per a recent Economist/YouGovpoll.

Moreover, though the Democratic stance on gun control is more aligned with the general publics views, the renewed national focus on gun violence could end up hurting Democrats in the midterms, given the partys electoral vulnerabilities on the issue of crime.

While polling consistently shows that most voters are supportive of stricter gun laws, there is prevalent public concern about rising crime as well as broad dissatisfaction with Bidens and Democrats handling of crime, and even more specifically, of gun violence.

Only 38 percent ofAmericansapprove of the presidents handling of rising crime, while a majority (61 percent) disapprove. Further, just one-third (33 percent) ofthe publicapproves of how Biden is addressing gun violence, versus 59 percent who disapprove.

This widespread discontent with Democrats approach to crime brings us to the third key development of the week: the results of Californias primary elections held Tuesday, which saw a decisive rejection of progressive policies especially on criminal justice in one of the most liberal states in the country.

The recallof San Franciscos progressive district attorney, Chesa Boudin, was the strongest rebuke of progressive crime policies to date and underscores the challenges Democrats face with messaging on this issue going forward.

The results of theLos Angeles mayoral primaryare also somewhat troubling for Democrats. Democratic Rep. Karen Bass and billionaire real estate developer Rick Caruso, who was formerly a Republican, finished neck-and-neck, and are headed to a runoff election.

Though Bass has worked to moderate her positioning on crime by calling for a greater police presence in the city, Carusos stance runs decisively to the right of Basss. The closeness of this race ultimately indicates that Democrats will have a difficult time reframing the public narrative which ties their policies to rising crime rates ahead of the midterms, despite Bidens efforts to vocalize the Democratic establishments opposition to the defund the police movement.

Taken together, the American publics growing dissatisfaction with the Biden administration, increasing economic pessimism, and rejection of progressivism indicate that the Democratic Party could be on track to endure one of the most considerable midterm seat losses of any part in recent history.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to former President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. He is the author of The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat. Zoe Young is vice president of Schoen Cooperman Research.

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Democrats could be on pace for a historic rout in November - The Hill

This year's redistricting process reduced electoral competition, giving incumbents bolstered protection. But not every officeholder gets a break, even if members of their own party help draw the maps.

Take Rep. Tom Malinowski, the Democrat incumbent of New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, which he flipped from red to blue in 2018, maintaining his seat by fewer than two points in 2020. Now, thanks to a new map, the district inherits a large chunk of Republican voters, putting Malinowski on the ropes again, with his seat vulnerable to Republican takeover.

And with only five seats needed to give the GOP control of the House, the political stakes of the crop of newly competitive races for seats currently held by Democrats couldn't be higher.

"This is the race that is going to determine whether Democrats control the House of Representatives for the next two years, or the people who supported the insurrection on January 6th," said Malinowski during a campaign event with Union City Democrats in the commuter town of Rahway, a new part of his district. That's an easy choice for the good people of New Jersey."

Unfortunately for Malinowski, that choice will likely be anything but easy with the new lines.

When a panel of New Jersey lawmakers were tasked with redrawing the states congressional boundaries, Democrats faced a challenge: How do they help draw a map that ensures they maintain their majority in Congress? The decision was to draw eleven of the twelve districts as safely partisan, leaving one remaining race competitive. That seat? Malinowskis.

If things go poorly for Malinowski come November, Rutgers Professor John Farmer says the New Jersey congressman "will be seen as having been sacrificed."

Sen. Thomas H Kean Jr. answers a questions in Trenton, N.J., Oct. 5, 2016.

Mel Evans/AP, FILE

Unsurprisingly, national Republicans have been on the offensive.

Malinowski and Rep. Cindy Axne, an Iowa Democrat, both advanced to a general election challenge after winning their state's primaries and are some of the top targets of the National Republican Congressional Committee. The group, alongside other House-aligned Super PAC called The Congressional Leadership Fund, has poured millions of dollars in the efforts to push New Jersey's 7th district from lightly to solidly red.

Rep. Tom Malinowski speaks during a news conference in Westfield, N.J., Aug. 9, 2021.

Bloomberg via Getty Images, FILE

Malinowski must now fend off Tom Kean Jr., the son of former Gov. Thomas Kean, whose legacy helps him elbow out the competition from both more moderate and MAGA wings of the Jersey GOP. Kean lost to Malinowski by a hair in 2020, and new maps give him the upper hand for the rematch.

"I am both humbled and fully committed to flipping this seat in November," Kean wrote in a statement on Twitter after his primary victory.

During hits on cable news -- mostly Fox -- he's been slamming Malinowski on rising costs and inflation in D.C., kitchen table issues that tend to swing New Jersey voters.

In addition to creating some newly competitive districts, redistricting has also forced some Democrats to run against fellow Democrats in incumbent-on-incumbent primaries. Such was the case for Georgia Rep. Lucy McBath, who advanced to the general after being forced into Georgia's 7th Congressional District, ousting Democratic Rep. Carolyn Bordeaux. And history will repeat itself in New York come August in perhaps the hottest incumbent-on-incumbent primary when Democrats Rep. Jerry Nadler squares off with Rep. Carolyn Maloney in New York's new 12th district.

In the walk-up to the November election, the path for Democrats is anything but clear.

At a campaign event with supporters in Springfield area coffee shop, Malinowski gave a candid appraisal of the road ahead for Democrats like him.

"We're the only ones who actually, by our votes and by our work, get to decide, get to make a difference in terms of which way the wind is blowing in America one way or another. And that is a burden. It means we have to work much harder. It's going to cost us a lot of money. But I think it's also a privilege," said Malinowski. "We actually could go either way, and that makes the investment that all of us are going to make in this campaign all the more important."

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Democrats on the ropes from redistricting could determine balance of power in Congress - ABC News

Rep. Donald Beyer of Virginia, a member of the tax-focused House Ways and Means Committee, has put forward a plan to levy a 1,000% excise tax on manufacturers, importers, and producers of AR-15 style weapons that's designed to pass Congress with only Democratic votes.

It's not the first time that type of plan has been proposed to reduce gun violence, though this one is meant to severely restrict access to semi-automatic weapons and prevent mass shootings. Other Democrats have previously pushed new gun taxes to reduce gun deaths overall.

In 2019 and 2020, two Democrats introduced similar measures to raise gun taxes, though not at the enormous scale Beyer wants.

Both Rep. Hank Johnson of Georgia and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts put forward plans to triple the existing tax on handguns to 30% and nearly quintuple the current tax rate on shells and cartridges to 50%. It came on the heels of deadly mass shootings in El Paso, Texas, and Dayton, Ohio.

"Increasing taxes on gun manufacturers will reduce gun and ammunition sales and bring in new federal revenue that we can use for both gun violence prevention and enforcement of existing gun laws," Warren wrote on Twitter at the time. "Together, we can hold gun manufacturers accountable."

It reflected a strong desire within the party to address gun violence after earlier efforts to tackle it went nowhere in Congress. The measures failed to break the stalemate around gun violence with Republicans staunchly opposed to them. Warren has signaled interest in the Beyer plan.

There is one big difference between the Warren and Beyer plan. Warren's proposal was part of a multi-pronged effort to decrease overall shooting deaths by 80% and not curb mass shootings in particular. The Beyer measure is focused on specifically restricting access to AR-15-style weapons, the kind used by gunmen in a string of high-profile shootings in New York, Texas, and Oklahoma recently.

Other Democrats previously pushed hefty tax increases on guns and ammunition to make them unaffordable. Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York said in 1993 that he wanted to tax handgun ammunition "out of existence" to curb crime, The New York Times reported.

He called for a 10,000% tax on ammunition, though he would have exempted bullets used for target shooting and hunting.

Congress may be on the verge of a breakthrough after many years of GOP resistance to tackling gun violence. A bipartisan group of senators announced a tentative deal on a slim package of gun safety measures on Sunday that would channel new federal money into mental health initiatives and strengthening school security. It includes ten Senate Republicans the amount of support needed to cross the 60-vote filibuster threshold in the Senate.

It would also establish federal grants for states to implement so-called "red flag laws" allowing authorities to briefly seize weapons from individuals who are a threat to themselves or others under court orders. But it falls far short of what many Democrats wanted, like an outright ban on semi-automatic AR-15-style weapons.

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Democrats have pitched gun taxes to tackle shootings in the past - Business Insider

Americas youngest voters accounted for the biggest turnout increase of any age group between the past two presidential elections, helping deliver full control of Washington to President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats.

But with just under five months until the midterm elections, its this group of voters who present a major challenge for the Democratic Partys fraught efforts to hold onto Congress this year: Morning Consult Political Intelligence tracking shows Bidens decline is especially grim among 18- to 34-year-olds. The Democrats among them are less likely than their older peers to see him as prioritizing the countrys biggest problems or holding true to his campaign promises, threatening to stunt base enthusiasm ahead of the consequential campaign season.

According to the latest survey data, 41% of voters ages 18-34 approve of Bidens job performance, down 20 percentage points since he took office, while 52% disapprove, a 28-point increase during that time frame both accounting for a larger shift than any other age group.

Growing antipathy toward Biden is especially pronounced among the youngest independents, among whom negative sentiment has increased from 24% to 64% throughout his presidency now roughly matching the level of aversion by the average independent voter. But ahead of the midterms, perhaps most alarming to Democrats is Bidens standing among the youngest in their coalition.

Seven in 10 Democrats under the age of 35 approve of Bidens job performance, down 15 points since he took office, compared to 79% of all Democratic voters, down 9 points. Only 28% of the youngest Democrats strongly approve of his job performance, compared with 38% of all Democrats.

These young Democrats, driven largely by dissent among women, have been the biggest drag on Bidens intraparty standing: 61% of young women approve of his job performance, compared with 78% of young men. According to responses gathered June 4-6, young Democratic men (40%) are more than twice as likely as young Democratic women (16%) to strongly approve of his job performance.

Young people men and women alike proved pivotal to Bidens defeat of former President Donald Trump in 2020, and the Democratic House victory in the 2018 midterm elections. According to the Census Bureau, participation by young voters, defined as ages 18-29, almost doubled from 20% in 2014 to 36% in 2018.

A reversion to the mean could prove devastating: If a presidents approval rating is a metric for gauging voter enthusiasm in contests that become mostly a referendum on White House occupant, weakness among young Democrats could prove costly especially given Bidens pain with young independents.

Other Morning Consult surveys conducted in April and May suggest disappointment in the Democratic Partys younger ranks both with what Biden has prioritized and what hes delivered for the American people.

Eighteen- to 34-year-old Democrats are less likely than the partys average voter (43% to 60%) to agree that Biden has been keeping his promises made in the 2020 election with young women less likely to agree than young men (39% to 48%).

Following the failure of Bidens signature Build Back Better domestic legislation and his convoluted approach to such issues as immigration and student loans, a quarter of young Democrats (23%) say the party is not liberal enough. When comparing against the Republican Party, the youngest in the Democratic coalition are also less likely than their older peers to say their party cares more about people like me, while they are more likely to agree that Democrats are a bigger supporter of big business or care more about wealthy Americans.

Those divides may be driven by voters priorities, on which the surveys found gaps in what the partys voters as a whole and the youngest among them say is very important to their votes in November.

While young Democratic voters dont skew too far from their older peers in saying issues such as health care, climate change and jobs are very important to their midterm votes, they are slightly more likely to prioritize issues like LGBTQ+ rights, education and immigration.

When it comes to abortion, 58% of all Democrats and 61% of young Democrats say it is very important to their votes this year. The issue marks the biggest gender divide between the partys newest generation of voters: Half of young Democratic men prioritize the issue, compared with 69% of young Democratic women.

Despite that level of interest in reproductive health care among young Democrats, just a third men and women say Biden is making the issue a top priority, compared with 41% of all Democratic voters.

Those figures could change depending on how the Biden administration responds to the Supreme Courts expected decision later this month to strike down the landmark Roe v. Wade decision, but on other key issues where hes already devoted a great deal of attention, his actions do not appear to be breaking through to the partys youngest voters.

By double digits, Democrats under the age of 35 are less likely than the average Democrat to say Biden is prioritizing things such as voting rights, the economy and, specifically, bringing down the costs of goods, with a handful of sizable gaps between young men and young women.

Even the most optimistic Democrat would likely admit that the outlook on progress on these issues between now and November is dim at best, leaving the party to suffer with the question not of whether the midterms will be bad but just how bad they may be.

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Young Voters, Who Helped Biden to Victory, Are a Big Weak Spot in the Democratic Coalition - Morning Consult

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Democrats host convention in Rock Springs: 'Wyoming is counting on us whether they know it or not' - Wyoming Tribune