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Two Democrats and two Republicans have filed for the June 14 special election to replace former U.S. Rep. Filemon Vela, D-Brownsville, in a South Texas congressional seat that the GOP wants to flip.

The filing deadline was 5 p.m. Wednesday, and the candidates are Democrat Dan Sanchez, a Harlingen attorney; Republican Mayra Flores, the current GOP nominee for the seat in the November general election; Republican Juana "Janie" Cantu-Cabrera, one of Flores' competitors from the March primary; and Democrat Rene Coronado of Harlingen, who listed his occupation as "city civil service director."

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The special election was triggered by Vela's resignation last month to take a job with Akin Gump, a prominent law and lobbying firm. He had already announced he was not seeking reelection.

The winner of the special election will only get to finish Vela's term, which extends until January. But Republicans are eager to capture the seat as they try to gain new ground in South Texas, and the special election is happening under the current, more competitive boundaries of the 34th District. The November election for a full term in Congress will be held under new district boundaries that were redrawn during last year's redistricting process.

Top Republicans have already consolidated behind Flores. She has been endorsed for the special election by Gov. Greg Abbott, Texas GOP chair Matt Rinaldi, Texas GOP vice chair Cat Parks and the Congressional Leadership Fund, the leading super PAC aligned with House GOP leadership.

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Sanchez, a former Cameron County commissioner, has the support of Vela, as well as U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, D-McAllen, who is currently the Democratic nominee for the full term in the 34th District. He declined to run in the special election.

The other Republican, Cantu-Cabrera, previously faced Flores in the March 1 primary for the full term in the 34th District. Cantu-Cabrera came in last in the four-way primary, getting 7% of the vote to 61% for Flores.

Early voting for the special election starts May 31.

We cant wait to welcome you in person and online to the 2022 Texas Tribune Festival, our multiday celebration of big, bold ideas about politics, public policy and the days news all taking place just steps away from the Texas Capitol from Sept. 22-24. When tickets go on sale in May, Tribune members will save big. Donate to join or renew today.

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Two Democrats, two Republicans will compete in special election for South Texas congressional seat that GOP wants to flip - KSAT San Antonio

Republicans are increasingly accusing Democrats of being soft on pedophilia as the midterm fights heat up. Democrats response? A collective eye roll.

Both in the fight to confirm Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court and in state-level battles over LGBTQ rights, hard-line Republicans have taken to smearing their Democratic opponents as groomers who are soft on pedophilia.

Georgia Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene made it more explicit last week, calling Democrats the party of pedophiles.

So how should Democrats respond? Or should they respond at all?

Half of Republicansand almost a third of Americans overallsaid in a recent YouGov poll that its definitely or probably true that top Democrats are involved in elite child sex-trafficking rings. Thats a slight uptick in belief of that core QAnon conspiracy from when the pollster started asking the question in 2020.

I see polling that shows that that outrageous characterization is landing with some folks, California Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell told VICE News. But you also don't really want to give oxygen to the land of misfit toys, which is where this is coming [from].

New York Democratic Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, a member of House Democratic leadership, said the best thing Democrats can do is ignore the attack and focus on the pocketbook issues that polls show Americans care about the mostand the big reason Democrats are in a bleak position heading into this falls midterm elections.

I dont even really pay attention to anything she says because she has nothing rational to say. It seems to me to be a ridiculous allegation, Jeffries told VICE News when asked about Greenes remarks.

Were focused right now on getting things done for everyday Americans: lowering costs, addressing gas prices, and inflation. They can continue to peddle lies and conspiracy theories, he said.

But claims made in bad faith can still pay political dividends, making even bonkers attacks risky to ignore. Democrats largely shrugged off GOP claims last election that even their most moderate members were socialists who wanted to defund the police and then they were shocked to lose House seats in 2020. During a furious post-election conference call, many centrists complained their party had done too little to push back against those GOP claims.

Republican fearmongering about a looming migrant caravan helped Republicans minimize red-state losses in 2018; their dire warnings that Ebola and ISIS were coming to suburbs near you helped power the 2014 GOP midterm wave election. Hard-right claims that President Obama wasnt a U.S. citizen helped spur GOP turnout in the 2010 Republican wave election.

Ohio Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan, the front-runner to be his partys Senate nominee in the GOP-leaning state, said Democrats must call it out when Republicans call them anti-cop socialists.

But pedophiles?

I just think it's so bizarre. I think most people are gonna think like, What are you talking about? It's not what 80 percent of Ohioans are even thinking about, Ryan said. Theyre thinking about their job, their wages, and they're gonna vote for the candidate who's gonna fight for them.

Greene demurred when asked if she thought the attacks would help her party in the midtermsbut she stood by her remarks.

I dont know. Being pro-pedophile is pretty bad, though, she told VICE News last week as she walked onto the House floor. I dont think anyone should be pro-pedophile. They shouldnt be for that horrible thing.

(For the record, no Democratic candidates are running on a pro-pedophilia platform.)

Greene isnt exactly the GOPs greatest campaign strategist, and mainline Republicans have largely kept their messaging focused on surging inflation. But shes not the only one pushing attacks that paint Democrats as pedophiles, dog-whistling to the chunk of the GOP that has bought into the QAnon conspiracy theory while aiming at riling up moderates whove never heard of the theory.

When LGBTQ activists dubbed Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis Dont say gay bill last month, DeSantis spokeswoman Christina Pushaw fired back by calling it the anti-grooming bill and claiming anyone who opposed it was probably a groomer, or at least you dont denounce the grooming of 4-8-year-old children. That echoed rhetoric used in QAnon circles as well as decades-old homophobic lies that LGBTQ people are more prone to pedophilia.

One America News host Chanel Rion went even further over the weekend, calling President Biden the groomer-in-chief and describing Judge Jackson as the queen of child porn apologists.

Conservatives have lobbed similar attacks against the Disney Corporation for belatedly opposing Floridas Dont say gay billFox News Laura Ingraham recently accused the company of pushing propaganda for grooming."

And while most swing voters wont likely buy into straight-up calling Democrats pedophiles, there are more subtle, effective, and related attacks being pushed by the GOP that they clearly see as politically effective, especially in culturally conservative states.

The hearings to confirm Jackson to the Supreme Court showed how Republicans can use coded language to try to scare moderates while dog-whistling to racists and QAnon believers in the GOP base.

Greenes claim that Democrats are the party of pedophiles came after senators like Missouri Republican Josh Hawley and Texas Republican Ted Cruz spent weeks cherry-picking a handful of cases from Jacksons record to argue, as Hawley put it, that she had a pattern of letting child porn offenders off the hook for their appalling crimes.

Democrats have fired back by pointing out that many Republican lawmakers stayed quiet when President Trump endorsed Roy Moores Alabama Senate bid following multiple allegations that Moore had sexually harassed and assaulted underage women. Others pointed out that Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz remains a House member in good stead even though hes facing an investigation into whether he trafficked a 17-year-old girl for sex.

I'm not sure that someone who refused to tell people whether he would vote for Roy Moore is an effective and credible messenger on this, White House press secretary Jen Psaki retorted last month when asked about Hawleys attacks on Jacksons sentencing record.

When the White House blasted Hawleys rhetoric as an "embarrassing QAnon-signaling smear, he regarded it as a political winner.

"If they want to dismiss parents' concerns about their children's safety and they want to dismiss concerns about crime as a conspiracy theory, take that argument to the polls, he said.

Fact-checkers have shown thats a misleading claim, but that didnt stop him and other Republicans. On the day Jackson was confirmed, Cruz declared that as a judge she showed a particular pattern of leniency for sex offenders that is deeply dismaying. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell used more traditional rhetoric to make a similar attack, arguing Jacksons long and disturbing record of using judicial activism to go soft on crime was the reason hed oppose her confirmation.

This rhetoric comes amid an outbreak of legislation targeting LGBTQ youth across the country, with many bills seeking to ban trans youth from high school athletics, prevent them from accessing gender-affirming medical care, or ban teachers and students from discussing LGBTQ issues in the classroom. According to the pro-LGBTQ group Freedom for All Americans, at least 166 anti-LGBTQ bills are currently under consideration. This push has already factored into GOP adsRepublicans say Missouri Rep. Vicki Hartzlers ad where she promises to keep men pretending to be women out of college sports helped vaunt her to the front of the pack in a crowded Senate primary field.

The specific pedophile attacks havent been put into campaign ads, and might never be by mainstream candidates. But they dont need to be explicitRepublicans can talk about Democrats being soft on child porn or hint theyre damaging children by supporting pro-LGBTQ policies to gin up base voters whose ears have been trained to hear the dog-whistles.

Texas Rep. Colin Allred, who won a swing seat in 2018 and held it in 2020, said the pedophile attacks were aimed at ginning up the hardcore GOP base, not moving swing voters.

I think it's mostly for the hardcore QAnon crowd. I don't think that it's taken seriously by most people and it's not the kind of thing that you can really run on, he said. I don't think that it has the same resonance as something like [defunding] law enforcement or socialism. I think it's such a fringe attack, just a fringe idea. I think it feels to a group that is already going to be not in the swing voter category anyways. So I don't see this as an effective political strategy.

But Allreds own state has become an epicenter of this rhetorical fight since Texas Gov. Greg Abbott ordered Texas agencies in late February to investigate parents of trans kids for child abuse if they helped them get gender-affirming care.

Other Democrats say the attacks are ludicrous but argue that Democrats should be ready to call them out, not ignore them.

Its an easy thing to combat. Its so out-there, said Democratic strategist Brad Howard, whos worked on races for a number of moderate Democratic candidates. You respond with values-based statements, saying at the end of the day we want every child to have an equal opportunity to get ahead. You can condemn the transphobic rhetoric from the right and pledge to work with parents.

Washington Democratic Rep. Pramila Jayapal, who has a trans child, said the absurd attacks undercut Republicans claims that theyre pro-family.

To tell a child that what they're doing is illegal because they are actually being who they are, is absolutely not just outrageous, it's detrimental to their mental health, she told VICE News. And to criminalize parents who are trying to support their children is about the biggest opposite of being pro-family that I can imagine. So if Republicans want to call themselves pro-family, and then attack children and attack parents for being good parents, then they can't call themselves pro-family. Itd be hypocritical."

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Democrats Are Doing Basically Nothing to Counter the GOP's 'Pedophile' Attacks - VICE

Leading New York Democrats know that theyre in hot water with voters over soaring crime, anti-COVID extremism, political corruption and other issues, so state Chairman Jay Jacobs and Gov. Kathy Hochul want to create a new ballot line for vulnerable incumbents ahead of Novembers election.

Moderate, independent and suburban voters are poised to rebel against the lefts pro-crime, anti-police, high-spending agenda. In Nassau and Suffolk counties, which saw big Republican gains last year, Dems fear their party brand has grown so toxic that they need an added line to avoid getting swamped in a coming red wave.

So Long Island-based Jacobs aims to create an independent third party to give his candidates some cover. Maybe the Unlike Most Democrats, We Dont Hate You Party?

But its not that easy to fool New York voters: Last year, then-Nassau County Executive Laura Curran created the Common Sense Party for the same reason. But Curran was still ousted as voters flocked to GOP candidate Bruce Blakeman.

So the Jacobs-Hochul plan to try the same thing on a larger scale tells you not only that theyre desperate, but that Democrats are out of new ideas even when it comes to conning the voters.

The rest is here:
NY Democrats are panicking over their brand they ruined themselves - New York Post

Earlier this year, approval for President Joe Biden among people aged 18-30 hit depths no Democratic president had plumbed in decades: the mid- to low-30s in Gallup and other polls. (Barack Obama never dropped below 42 percent among that group in Gallups surveys.) In some cases, the swing against Biden in 2021 totaled anywhere from 20 to 30 percentage points. He has since made gains in some polls but is still on unstable ground.

An alienated youth vote is an existential threat for Democrats in 2022: They backed Biden by a 25-point margin in 2020, voting at all-time highs. And in their hour of need, powerful Democrats are looking for answers from Della Volpe, a 54-year-old pollster with salt-and-pepper hair who is not on TikTok.

Hes hailed by industry colleagues and political operatives on both sides of the aisle for his encyclopedic knowledge of young voters, said Kristen Soltis Anderson, a Republican pollster. John Anzalone, Bidens lead campaign pollster, said Della Volpes data yield so much depth of understanding of a misunderstood group. Della Volpe has led Harvard Universitys Institute of Politics Youth Poll since its inception in 2000, with former students including House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg.

Della Volpes longitudinal insight into young voters what moves them, how they feel about politicians and whether theyre going to unplug from politics altogether matters deeply for Democrats, especially ahead of 2022. Theyre also not as broadly studied or understood as, say, independents, even though they represent a core part of the partys base and their numbers are fluctuating. The party goes into the midterms in an unusual place with young people, Della Volpe said in an interview: There are more younger people in play than there were in the last two cycles.

Pollster John Della Volpe with students in 2018.|Martha Stewart/Courtesy of John Della Volpe

Where Democrats spent past elections mostly worried about whether young people would vote, this cycle is different, Della Volpe continued. In the face of economic unrest, disinformation and without former President Donald Trump as a foil, he said, Democrats need to persuade them and mobilize them. That is the new reality.

The pollster, who was part of Bidens team during the 2020 general election, still has the ear of many in the administration: Hes one of those trusted voices people in the White House turn to for advice, said one senior Biden adviser. Della Volpe has recently made several presentations to White House staff, according to people familiar with the meetings.

Bidens yo-yoing numbers with young people should concern everyone, said John Walsh, Sen. Ed Markeys chief of staff, who managed the Massachusetts Democrats successful primary campaign in 2020, which drew unusually high support among young voters for a 75-year-old senator. Government is not acting with the urgency this moment demands and theyre frustrated, pissed off.

I worry that some people are not listening to John, Walsh added.

Della Volpe has spent much of the last two decades listening to young people.

In 2000, Della Volpe conducted his first youth survey with two Harvard University students, who wanted to understand why college students participated in community service but didnt vote. At the time, Della Volpe had built a polling and market research business around dial testing cutting-edge technology of the day, in which participants would rate their reaction to political speeches or campaign ads on a manual dial. His roster of clients included President Bill Clinton, Sen. Ted Kennedy and major corporations.

But specifically, polling youth filled a void. No one was listening to younger people, Della Volpe said. Even now, young people are more difficult and expensive to survey. Theyre more transient, less comfortable picking up an unknown phone number and more likely to require different language options.

There are more younger people in play than there were in the last two cycles. ... Democrats need to persuade them and mobilize them. That is the new reality.

Pollster John Della Volpe

They didnt vote, so candidates didnt appeal to them or target them, and then they didnt vote, so it was this vicious cycle repeating, Della Volpe said.

Since 2000, the Harvard Youth Poll has grown in scope, publishing twice a year, with undergraduates developing questions and Della Volpe editing and sharpening them. In 2018, citing his own data, Della Volpe predicted that young people would show up in historic numbers, calling Trumps first midterm a moment of once-in-a-generation attitudinal shift around voting. Some pollsters rolled their eyes, but Della Volpe was right 36 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds voted that cycle, almost doubling 2014s rates and beating any previous midterm participation since the 1980s.

The Harvard Youth Poll has been the only consistent data set to look at change over time on this stuff, said Ben Wessel, who served from 2019 to 2021 as the executive director of NextGen America, the largest Democratic group focused on youth mobilization. Because of this longevity, he catches trends between politics and not-politics that the rest of the political world could really learn from.

Della Volpe also regularly runs focus groups, which makes him extremely effective at going beyond percentages and crosstabs a much more nuanced way of getting to the true viewpoint, noted Matt Barreto, a Democratic pollster who worked with Della Volpe on the Biden campaign.

Indeed, Della Volpes interest is less focused on quantitative feedback than on stories, describing it as almost a kind of political therapy. He zeroed in on how Gen Z is defined by anxiety through key events, including Trumps election in 2016 and the Parkland school shooting in 2018. It has made them suspicious of institutions and impatient for change, he wrote in his book, Fight: How Gen Z Is Channeling Their Fear and Passion to Save America.

In recent focus groups conducted over Zoom with two dozen Gen Zers, Della Volpe started by asking them to share something good that had happened to them recently. He followed up by asking if they felt like their personal lives were on the right track, and if they werent, why? He asked them about their mental health, the pressures and stresses they face. In both 90-minute sessions, it took nearly an hour before he explicitly asked about politics or politicians.

Focus on values first, second and third, Della Volpe said, its perhaps a unique perspective in politics.

A warning sign about young peoples political enthusiasm came out of Virginias governors race last year. TargetSmart, a Democratic data firm, found turnout among 18- to 29-year-olds dropped by just over a half a percentage point compared to the last gubernatorial election, even though Virginia worked aggressively in the last two years to expand access to the ballot.

Terrance Woodbury, another Democratic pollster, also stressed that hes not optimistic about young peoples participation in the midterms, noting that Virginias electorate in 2021 was 11 percent older and 7 percent whiter than in 2020.

The key question were facing is if youth turnout in 2020 was driven more by opposition to Trump than strong enthusiasm for Biden, said Tom Bonier, TargetSmarts CEO.

Claudia Cedillos, left, waves signs with her daughter Montserrat before a campaign rally for Democratic then-presidential candidate Joe Biden, on Nov. 2, 2020, in Miami.|Lynne Sladky/AP Photo

But if operatives are just focused on whos in the Oval Office, or on Bidens approval ratings, theyre not looking at the right data, Della Volpe said. He pointed to the third of young Americans who said they still planned to vote in 2022, according to his December Harvard Youth Poll. Thats equal to what participants told him in spring 2018, ahead of the midterm when Democrats flipped the House. Since then, theyve formed a voting habit over two elections, another indication that youth turnout might be higher in 2022.

But participation wont happen in a vacuum. Right now, they say theyll vote but if Democrats and Republicans ignore them, they wont turn out, Della Volpe said. Right now, theyre looking to vote.

It starts with communication, Della Volpe said, suggesting regular check-ins to update them on policy progress and citing Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortezs (D-N.Y.) disciplined cadence of Instagram posts as one example of this in practice.

Then, empower them, Della Volpe said. He noted that Democrats can sometimes stand in their own way in reaching young people because theyre intimidated and they get weighed down in the transactional nature of politics. Della Volpe pointed to the tack Biden took as he locked up the Democratic presidential nomination: Say, where do we agree with Bernie Sanders groups? Where do we agree, and whats the process to get there?

Della Volpe listed a handful of policy areas where potential executive actions from Biden would very quickly capture the attention of [young] people. The list includes student debt, mental health, climate change and dealing with the rising cost of living.

In large part, they have been following up on these issues, but its about extending the conversation in new and different ways to remind people that were not finished, Della Volpe said, citing as one example Bidens announcement of a mental health initiative during his State of the Union address.

Major progressive outside groups, though, think Biden can go much further. They argue that he should cancel student debt altogether or work more aggressively on his climate agenda.

NextGen Americas president, Cristina Tzintzn Ramirez, said young people want to see action, and thats why were yelling as loud as we can, please take action on student debt, because this is within the power of the Biden administration. Last week, the Biden administration announced another four-month extension of the pause on monthly loan payments and interest.

Its been over a year of a Democratic trifecta and young people are really disappointed because not much has been accomplished around student debt or on ambitious climate goals, said Ellen Sciales, a press secretary for the Sunrise Movement. People are losing hope.

Biden has turned his numbers around with young people before, a saga that may show a path forward for him in the next six months.

During the presidential primary, Bidens numbers with young people were also upside down. At the time, Della Volpe took a group of students to Charleston to conduct a focus group in February 2020, a week before the South Carolina primary. They dropped by a Biden event, and we probably doubled the size of the crowd, Della Volpe acknowledged.

After the event, Valerie Biden Owens, Bidens sister and a former Harvard Institute of Politics fellow, spoke to Della Volpes students, then pulled him aside for his private assessment of the primary race. Its not looking too good, Della Volpe told her. Biden had just finished fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire. He was about to come in second place in Nevada.

Owens, who got to know Della Volpe well during her stint at Harvard, told him: John, youve got to talk to my brother, because you were saying what my brother intuitively and instinctively knows, but you also have all this data here, she recounted in an interview with POLITICO. You relate the way that my brother relates which is, spoken like a true sister but my brother speaks in stories.

In this Aug. 7, 2019, photo, then-presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks to local residents during a community event in Burlington, Iowa.|Charlie Neibergal/AP Photo

A turning point for Biden and young voters came before Della Volpe joined the Biden campaign later that fall, but Della Volpe pointed to it as a sign Biden knew how to reach them: saying I hear you to Bernie Sanders supporters, especially young voters, in March 2020. Those three simple words, Della Volpe wrote in his book, were everything millions of Zoomers were waiting to hear.

John reinforced to Joe that people just want to be heard, reinforcing Joes natural way of doing things, Owens said.

Sciales, who organized on behalf of Elizabeth Warren during the presidential primary, said Biden was not young voters favored primary candidate, but once Biden became the nominee, he honestly stepped up and started listening to young people, putting together the Bernie-Biden unity task for and moving on his climate agenda.

The oldest presidential nominee in history eventually achieved historic support from young people in the general election.

But now, after two years of stalled agenda items important to young people, Democrats are worried about where young people are in terms of not feeling engaged or motivated right now, said Ben Tulchin, a Democratic pollster whose clients include Sanders and New York City Mayor Eric Adams.

You have to give them a reason to show up now, Tulchin said.

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Democrats turn to their Gen Z whisperer as youth support wobbles - POLITICO

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Over the last few weeks, a Democratic senator from Arizona blocked President Joe Bidens nominee for a top job in the Labor Department, dealing a blow to the White Houses pro-labor agenda. The same senator raised objections to the presidents nominee for U.S. ambassador to India, a crucial post for the Administrations foreign policy. Then that lawmaker excoriated Bidens decision to end Title 42, a controversial Trump-era pandemic measure that lets border officials expel migrants without letting them apply for asylum.

Sound like Kyrsten Sinema? She did do all those things. But so did Mark Kelly.

Such moves are a shift for Kelly. Since winning a special election in 2020 for the seat formerly held by the late Arizona Republican John McCain, the Grand Canyon states junior senator has been a staunch party loyalist. Unlike Sinema, Kelly has supported the Biden Administrations key legislative priorities, from Build Back Better to changing the filibuster rules to pass a voting-rights package. In all, hes voted with the Biden agenda 98% of the time.

This record has led national Democrats to lament that Sinema isnt more like Kelly. But faced with a tough re-election fight this fall, Kelly is increasingly acting like a maverick in the mold of Sinema.

Read More: What Does Kyrsten Sinema Want?

Close observers of Arizona politics say that Kellys move to the middle, punctuated by his strong opposition to ending Title 42, is a reflection of the political mood in the purple state he represents. Though Biden won Arizona in the 2020 presidential election, a March poll by OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based non-partisan pollster, found the President 15 points underwater in the state, with 55% of Arizonans disapproving of his performance.

Kelly started out as a first-time elected official as a U.S. senator, dancing with the party that brought him, says Steve May, a former Republican state legislator in Arizona. But the public is turning against Democrats and being a Democratic Party soldier is not going to play well in Arizona in this election.

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The senators office rejected the notion hes changed course to curry favor with GOP and independent voters ahead of the midterms. Since day one, Sen. Kelly has worked with Republicans and Democrats to deliver results for all Arizonans. Senator Kelly continues to make decisions based on whats best for Arizona, not politics, Marisol Samayoa, a spokeswoman for Kelly, told TIME.

But its not hard to spot the shift in his political positioning as the November election approaches. Mark Kelly has been a lot more careful to stay below the radar until recently, says David Wells, research director for the Grand Canyon Institute, a non-partisan think tank. He hasnt stuck his neck out.

Kelly, 58, is a relative newcomer to electoral politics. The Kings Point graduate, who served two tours of duty as a naval aviator during the Persian Gulf War, first entered electoral politics in Feb. 2019, when he announced his candidacy to challenge Republican Martha McSally, who had been appointed to McCains former Senate seat.

Up to that point, Kelly was best known in political circles as the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, a moderate Democrat who was shot in 2011 and suffered a severe brain injury. Together they created Americans for Responsible Solutions, a political action committee that pushed for stronger gun-safety laws and regulations.

Read More: The Real Lesson of the Tucson Tragedy.

Kelly ran in 2020 as a moderate. He vowed to foster bipartisanship in Washington and assiduously distanced himself from national Democrats, declining to say whether he would vote for Chuck Schumer as majority leader or support ending the filibuster. It worked. Kelly won with 51% of the vote, joining Sinema to give Arizona two Democratic senators for the first time in 53 years.

Contrary to Sinema, though, Kelly built up a reputation in Washington as someone the party leadership could rely on, according to a senior Democratic Senate aide. While he often voiced concerns about the Administrations border policies, he almost always voted with the party. During Bidens first year in office, Kelly voted to confirm every one of the Presidents nominees for cabinet-level positions and supported Bidens major legislative pushes, including the American Rescue Plan and the $1 trillion infrastructure bill.

Kellys first significant break with Biden came last November, when he helped to sink the Presidents nominee to head the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, one of the most powerful bank-regulating positions in federal government. Then, in January, he joined Republicans and five other Democrats to vote for imposing new sanctions over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The White House had been lobbying against the sanctions, arguing they would harm ties with Germany.

His breaks from the party line have only grown more pronounced. In late March, Kelly voted with Sinema and Manchin to block Bidens nominee to head the Labor Departments Wage and Hour Division, David Weil. Weil held the same role in the Obama Administration, but faced a raft of opposition from Republicans and business groups after signaling he would support increased protections for gig workers. Kelly also voiced concerns about Bidens chosen envoy to India, Eric Garcetti, based on allegations the Los Angeles mayor perjured himself by misrepresenting to Congress his handling of sexual-harassment complaints in his office. (Garcetti has denied any wrongdoing.)

On April 1, Kelly came out against Bidens plan to end Title 42, saying the administration lacked a plan for dealing with an expected migrant flux at the border once the directive expires. In turn, he introduced a bill with Sinema to delay the end of the measure for another 60 days. It was a reflection of the issues political salience in a state where a border crisis would surely become grist for attack ads against members of the party in power.

Democratic insiders see in Kellys moves a recognition that Sinemas independent streak, while grating to the national party, has paid dividends with independents and Republicans in Arizona. A January survey from OH Predictive Insights found that Sinema was viewed favorably by 44% of Republicans, while just 21% viewed Kelly favorably. I would be shocked if he wasnt seeing how popular Sinema was in Arizona, the senior Senate Democratic aide says. Shes the top-testing Democrat in the state.

Kellys best chance to hang on in November may hinge not on his own record but rather who GOP primary voters choose to go up against him. In what has become a common theme in Republican primaries, the top two candidatesJim Lamon, a solar power executive, and Mark Brnovich, the states attorney generalhave been vying to out-Trump one another. Lamon is running a campaign ad that shows him wearing spurs in the Old West while engaging in a gunfight with Biden (Old Joe), Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Crazyface Pelosi), and Kelly (Shifty Kelly). Brnovich, meanwhile, recently put out a new report saying that Maricopa County was subject to serious vulnerabilities during the 2020 election, even though he spent that election defending the integrity of the vote as the states chief law enforcement officer. The greatest advantage for [Kelly] is that Republicans are unlikely to nominate a rational person, May says.

Kelly has also amassed a campaign war chest of more than $27.5 million for his re-election bid. If his latest moves on Capitol Hill are any indication, you can expect those dollars to go toward making the case to Arizonans that hes more of a thorn in Bidens side than one of his legislative foot soldiers.

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Lots of Democrats Loathe Kyrsten Sinema. Mark Kelly Is Trying To Be More Like Her - Yahoo News