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OPINION: Democrats hope 'Trump fatigue' gives them a shot - Lewiston Morning Tribune

The US Supreme Courts annual term usually finishes at the end of June, so late June is when the most important decisions are likely to be announced.

On June 23, the Court struck down a New York state law that restricted carrying of guns outside the home. On June 24, it denied a constitutional right to an abortion, overturning its own Roe v. Wade ruling in 1973. On June 30, it ruled against the Environmental Protection Agencys (EPA) regulations on fossil fuels.

From an international viewpoint, the EPA ruling is the most significant. Other countries can set their own gun and abortion laws, but climate change mitigation efforts require international co-operation. According to a May 2021 report, China had 27% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2019, with the US second with 11% of emissions.

How did the Supreme Court become right-wing? Unlike Australia, judicial appointments in the US are politicised. Democratic presidents will try to appoint left-wing judges and Republican presidents will try to appoint right-wing judges.

Supreme Court judges are lifetime appointments. Presidents nominate judges who are subject to confirmation by only the US Senate, not the House of Representatives.

Until late 2020, the Court had a 5-4 right majority, but Chief Justice John Roberts sometimes sided with the left, most famously in the June 2012 decision that upheld Barack Obamas Affordable Care Act (Obamacare).

In February 2016, right-wing Justice Antonin Scalia died. Obama was still president at the time, and replacing Scalia would have given the left a 5-4 majority. But Republicans controlled the Senate, and majority leader Mitch McConnell denied a vote for Obamas nominee, Merrick Garland.

McConnells ruthlessness was rewarded when Donald Trump unexpectedly defeated Hillary Clinton at the November 2016 presidential election. Trump nominated Neil Gorsuch to replace Scalia, and his nomination was confirmed by the Republican-controlled Senate in April 2017.

In July 2018, right-wing Justice Anthony Kennedy retired. After a vicious confirmation fight that involved allegations of rape, Kennedy was succeeded by Trumps nominee Brett Kavanaugh in October 2018.

At the November 2018 midterm elections, Democrats gained control of the House, where all 435 seats are up for election every two years. But senators have six-year terms, with one-third up every two years. The seats up in the Senate last had elections in 2012, a great year for Democrats. Republicans gained two net Senate seats in 2018 to extend their control.

In September 2020, left-wing Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died. McConnell ruthlessly rammed Trumps nominee, Amy Coney Barrett, through the Senate in late October, shortly before the November 2020 election that Trump lost.

This is how weve now got a 6-3 right Supreme Court: Obama did not get a chance to replace the right-wing Scalia, while Trump had three nominees approved, including Ginsburgs replacement.

Left-wing Justice Stephen Breyer announced he would retire at the end of the current term, and President Joe Bidens nominee, Ketanji Brown Jackson, was confirmed by the now Democratic-controlled Senate in April. Jackson has now replaced Breyer, but she replaced a left-wing judge, so the 6-3 right majority remains.

A Gallup poll conducted in June before the major decisions were announced, had 25% expressing a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the Supreme Court, down from 36% in June 2021. Thats the lowest confidence in the Court in Gallups polling, which goes back to 1973; the previous low was 30% in 2014.

A FiveThirtyEight article last Friday cited seven polls that asked whether voters approved or disapproved of the June 24 abortion ruling. Disapproval led in all seven polls by seven to 23 points, with an average lead of 15.6.

The bad news for Democrats is Bidens ratings are at a near-record low compared to past presidents. In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, 55.9% disapprove of Bidens performance and 39.2% approve (net -16.7).

Thats worse than Trump, who had a -10.2 net approval at this stage of his presidency. Since presidential approval polling began with Harry Truman (president from 1945-53), Biden only beats Truman at this stage of previous presidencies. Truman fell to -19.0 net before rebounding into positive net approval.

Inflation and the resulting drop in real wages explain a large amount of Bidens unpopularity. US inflation increased 1.0% in May alone for a 12-month rate of 8.6%, the highest since 1981. Real weekly earnings dropped 0.7% in May and are down 3.9% in the 12 months to May.

As well as economic factors, I believe a perception that Biden has been weak in both the Afghanistan withdrawal in August 2021 and the current Russian invasion of Ukraine has damaged his ratings.

Midterm elections will be held in early November, with all 435 House seats and one-third of the Senate up. FiveThirtyEight has Republicans leading Democrats by 2.0% in the race for Congress, little changed from before the abortion ruling.

While the currently close polls give Democrats hope, they do not yet account for Republican efforts to tie Democratic candidates to the unpopular Biden, or for greater Republican likelihood to vote. The FiveThirtyEight House model gives Republicans an 87% chance of winning control from Democrats.

In the Senate, there are elections for 35 of the 100 seats 34 are regular elections that were last up in 2016 and one is a byelection in the safe Republican Oklahoma. Republicans will be defending 21 seats and Democrats 14. The Senate is currently 50-50, with Democrats in control on Vice President Kamala Harris tie-breaking vote.

Although Republicans need just one net Senate gain to win control, their defence of 21 seats to 14 for Democrats makes it harder for them than the House. FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans a 55% chance of winning the Senate.

In my opinion, the economy is likely to be far more important to most voters than abortion. Democrats are still likely to be thumped at the midterms owing to the economy.

In April I calculated the percentage of people living in cities of over 100,000 population in four countries: the US, Australia, the UK and Canada. 68% of Australians lived in cities of over 100,000 population, but only 29% of Americans.

Read more: Will a continuing education divide eventually favour Labor electorally due to our big cities?

In the US, high income white people have moved to suburbs outside cities, and these swung to Democrats in 2020, helping Biden win.

Like the Australian Senate, the US Senate has the same number of senators for each state (12 in Australia, two in the US), and this makes it highly malapportioned, with high-population states like California, Texas, Florida and New York getting the same number of senators as the lowest population states.

Analyst Nate Silver said in May that this means the US Senate has a large skew towards groups that are trending towards Republicans (rural and small town voters).

In the US overall, suburban and urban voters make up 52% of the population, to 48% for rural and small town voters. But in the average state, rural and small towns make up 61% of the population, while suburban and urban voters have just 39%.

In 2024, Democrats will be defending 23 Senate seats and Republicans just 10; these will include Democratic defences in Montana, Ohio and West Virginia, which Trump won easily in both 2016 and 2020.

If Republicans gain a permanent lock on the Senate, they will be able to deny future Democratic presidents legislative or judicial wins. The US could be heading for a future where only Republican presidents are able to govern effectively.

I covered the June 23 UK Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton byelections for The Poll Bludger. The Conservatives lost Wakefield to Labour and T&H to the Liberal Democrats. Also covered: the collapse of Israels government that was formed to keep Benjamin Netanyahu out, and Colombia elected a left-wing president for the first time.

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How the US Supreme Court has become right-wing, and do recent decisions give Democrats hope at the midterms? - The Conversation Indonesia

Opinion: Pima County Democrats are spreading the word on social media about a 'F--- the 4th' event. Do they just want to turn off voters?

While the rest of the country prepares to celebrate the nations birthday with hot dogs, apple pie and fireworks, the Pima County Democratic Party on Friday promoteda novel Independence Day … um … celebration?

F--- the 4th.

Tell me, do you people have to work at turning off voters, or does it just come naturally?

Tucson Womens March the group organizing the event in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade is asking people to bring comfortable shoes, water, lawn chairs, posters and your anger.

And the Pima County Democrats spreadthe word on social media on Friday, saying F---the 4th. See you at Reid Park.

Sorry, thats a hard pass for me.

Icalled the Pima County Democratic Party to make sure this wasnt some sort of hoax.

Itisnt.

A half-hour later the party took down the six-hour-old tweet and the attached flyer, which features the Statue of Liberty and says, Lets Mourn With F--- The 4th.

Bonnie Heidler, chairwoman of the Pima County Democratic Party, said she supports the protestbutnot the name or the flyer advertising the event. The party's tweet, she said, was a mistake.

We support women being able to protest when they feel wronged, she told me. They (Tucson Womens March) picked that name. Wedid not.

The party also posted a statement on Twitter, saying the graphic was "in poor taste".

"Make no mistake, however. We support the event which will be on July 4 at 7 pm at Reid Park. The event was organized to help women in our community grieve for the loss of their bodily autonomy, which we consider an elemental right."

I can appreciate the fact that Democrats, independents and even a few Republicans are full-out furious about the demise of Roe v. Wade and the look of Arizonas new future, rooted in a law passed during horse-and-buggy days.

The girls and women of this state woke up this week to learnthat our bodies are not our own but instead under the care and control of state of Arizona. Even a rape victim will be forced to bear her attackers babies.

So, yeah, anger. I get it.

But I also know that Democrats are facing an uphill battle in this years elections. Everything from control of Congress to control of the state Capitol is up for grabs. Meanwhile, historical voting patterns, the price of gas and groceries, and Joe Bidens low approval ratings are not the Democrats friends.

Now comes F--- the 4th?

Sorry, thats just not a good look for a party thats trying to convince independents and even moderate Republicans to look their way in November.

Republicans, meanwhile, jumped on the thing, tsk tsking in delight at the Democrats show of disrespect.

There it is the modern Democrat Party in a single tweet, Karrin Taylor Robson, Republican candidate for governor, responded. Arizona patriots will gather w/ friends/family on Independence Day to celebrate our nations birth & honor those who sacrificed for our freedom. But these Democrats will be doing something very different. Shameful.

"Clearly the Pima dems dont care about our country or those who fought and died for our freedoms," tweeted Senate President Karen Fann, R-Prescott.

This from the party that gave us Lets Go Brandon T-shirts and flags and sued to end the wildly popular early voting program used by up to 90% of Arizona voters.

Republicans disrespect a president. Now the Democrats disrespect one of our nations most importantholidays.

Theres no high ground here.

Fortunately, there are some Democrats who havent lost their ever living minds.

Adrian Fontes, who is running for secretary of state, was stunned by his partys promotion of the F---the 4th event.

Absolutely NOT how this Democrat feels. What the hell are you thinking @PimaDems?!? How does this help us WIN? Standby for an official statement condemning this tweet. Take this trash down!

Why celebrate freedom, you might ask, when we just lost a bit of it?

Because were free to win it back.

Celebrate by using that freedom to hold a voter registration drive on Monday. Orgo door-to-door and make sure that votersknow how to get early ballots. Theyll start arriving in mail boxes next week.

Give them information on who is running and how to vote and where to vote.

You want to change America? Then do it the old-fashioned way. At the polls.

And let us have this one day a year whenall Americans should be able to come together and celebrate.

This, Democrats, was a Yankee Doodle Don't.

Reach Roberts at laurie.roberts@arizonarepublic.com. Follow her on Twitter at @LaurieRoberts.

Support local journalism: Subscribe to azcentral.com today.

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Hey, Pima County Democrats, F-bombing the 4th of July will not win you any votes - The Arizona Republic

Obama and his party combated it not with a norm violation of their own such as a temporary (and legally dicey) recess appointment of a justice but with reasonableness. Surely appointing a modest and moderate justice like Merrick Garland would lead public pressure to force McConnell to relent or would push voters to punish Republicans for their transgression. Neither happened. And the seat was filled by a Republican.

This is a pattern weve seen repeated ever since. Republicans attempt some unprecedented and shocking move; horrified Democrats respond by trying to be the adults in the room; and then the Democrats go unrewarded for it.

To be sure, a country is probably better off with one responsible party than with zero. But in important ways, this kind of asymmetry can be dangerous, making the government less and less representative of its people.

Now, time for some game theory.

In the game known as the prisoners dilemma, two players are competing against each other, and each has just two options cooperate or defect. If they both cooperate, they both get a nice reward. However, if Player 1 defects while Player 2 cooperates, Player 1 gets an even bigger reward while Player 2 pays a penalty. (The reverse happens if Player 1 cooperates while Player 2 defects.) If both players defect, neither gets a reward nor pays a penalty. Thus, each player wants the other to cooperate, and both prefer jointly cooperating to both defecting. But since neither can trust the other to cooperate, the usual outcome is for both to defect, leading to no payoff for either player. (The ferryboat scene in The Dark Knight (2008) remains my favorite, if imperfect, example of the prisoners dilemma.)

Playing this game many times can lead the players to develop norms of trust. Neither is happy with the low payoff, so reaching some sort of agreement about cooperation can be beneficial to both.

This hasnt been the pattern in national politics. On a range of issues and tactics, Republicans have defected while Democrats have cooperated. This includes how the GOP secured multiple Supreme Court justices, Donald Trump giving White House jobs to his daughter and son-in-law, Trump profiting from the presidency while refusing to release his tax returns, the Republican National Committee declaring the Jan. 6th riots to be legitimate political discourse, and many, many more. (I am not including Trumps efforts to steal the 2020 election or his instigation of the Capitol riot since those were, appropriately, met with impeachment and investigations.)

Were seeing this dynamic again in the wake of the Supreme Courts decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. This ruling, while opposed by most Americans, was a longstanding goal of Republicans and particularly conservatives on the court. And Democratic leaders had, thanks to POLITICOs bombshell disclosure of the draft opinion, ample warning that it was coming. And in response, they have done virtually nothing.

As Jamelle Bouie notes, there are things the president or Congress can do to rein in an out-of-control Supreme Court. Lawmakers can impeach justices (perhaps the appointees that appear to have deceived senators or even lied under oath in their confirmation hearings). They can curtail the courts jurisdiction or constrain judicial review. They can add more justices. No, Democrats may not have the votes to do any of these things; such efforts would likely fall at least one or two votes short in the Senate amid opposition from people like Sen. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, though they may at least be open to discussion on some ideas. But its not clear that Democrats are even trying to broach the topic. Instead, they have read poems and sung patriotic tunes.

Even if Congress doesnt act, the Biden administration could push back on its own. One possible policy response would be to put abortion clinics on federal lands within states that have banned abortions; the administration has taken that off the table. Biden also could verbally attack the legitimacy of the court, as a previous Democratic president once did. He hasnt.

To be clear, most of these moves would be treated as significant norm violations in Washington. But thats the point. When a norm violation is met by another, that gives both parties an incentive to find a new equilibrium down the road, and suggests to the first violator that they may have gone too far. If the majoritys rulings to end the federal right to abortion and restrict the states ability to regulate guns were met with an attempt to add four justices to the court even if that attempt failed it would send a message that there is a price to be paid, and that a future Congress might finish the job.

A classic economics article by David Kreps et al. outlines a version of the prisoners dilemma that spans many iterations. In this game, it may make sense for one player to act irrationally in the short run, forgoing some payoffs, in order to give that player a reputation of unpredictability or craziness. This can improve that players negotiating position further down the road. It could make sense for Democrats to adopt a similar strategy, at least to the point that Republicans believe that Democrats are as willing to damage institutions as they are.

For now, though, the lack of any fulsome Democratic response simply sends the message that there will be no penalty for GOP transgressions. And the courts conservative majority is just getting started.

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Opinion | Why Are Democrats Letting Republicans Steamroll Them? - POLITICO

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PORTSMOUTH, N.H. Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan vows that she'll "fight and never back down" to protect legalized abortion in her latest TV ad running in her home state of New Hampshire.

Hassan was the first Democratic senator from a key battleground state who's facing a challenging reelection in November's midterms to go up with a commercial on abortion in wake of last week's monumental move by the Supreme Court's conservative majority to upend the landmark half century old Roe v. Wade ruling.

"This decision catapults us backwards, and there are politicians like Mitch McConnell, whove made it clear that their objective is to ban abortion nationwide," Hassan charges in her ad. "We will not be intimidated. I will fight and never back down. Im Maggie Hassan and I approve this message because protecting our personal freedoms isnt just whats right for New Hampshire, its what makes us New Hampshire."

Hassan ad is one of a slew of spots from Democratic incumbents and candidates running this year, as well as party committees and outside groups, to start running this week in Senate, House and gubernatorial races.

DEMOCRATIC, REPUBLICAN STRATEGISTS WEIGH IMPLICATION OF SUPREME COURT ABORTION RULING ON MIDTERM ELECTIONS

The political wing of Emily's List, a group that works to elect female Democratic candidates who support abortion, also went up with an ad praising Hassan for pushing "for a federal law to protect a woman's right to make her own personal decisions."

New Hampshire's Senate primary isn't until early September, so Hassan doesn't know which Republican challenger she'll be facing off with in November. But she's been heavily targeted by the GOP, which views her as vulnerable as she seeks a second term.

But in states where the GOP nominees have already been determined, Democrats are taking aim.

A commercial launched this week in the key swing state of Pennsylvania targets Mehmet Oz, the celebrity doctor and cardiac surgeon known as Dr. Oz, who last month won the GOP Senate nomination in the open seat race.

POLL: MAJORITY OF AMERICANS OPPOSE OVERTURNING ROE V. WADE

"I am pro-life. I have been very clear on my position," Mehmet Oz says in a clip in the ad, which was put up by the political wing of Planned Parenthood.

The narrator in spot charges that Oz "wants to make abortion a crime in Pennsylvania."

A separate political wing of Planned Parenthood took to the airwaves in battleground Wisconsin to take aim at GOP Sen. Ron Johnson over the issue. Democrats consider Johnson the most vulnerable Republican senator running for re-election this year.

The political wing of Emily's List is up with a spot in Nevada that highlights the anti-abortion stance of former state attorney general Adam Laxalt, who's this year's GOP Senate nominee.

And Washington State Democratic Sen. Patty Murray launched a commercial that uses a clip of Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley saying "I am 100% pro-life."

Democrats also took to the air to run abortion ads this week in House races and in gubernatorial battles including in Illinois, where Gov. J.B. Pritzker uses clips of GOP nominee and state Sen. Darren Bailey discussing his anti-abortion views.

WHAT OUR LATEST FOX NEWS 2022 MIDTERMS POWER RANKINGS SHOW

The national ad tracking firm AdImpact said that as of Thursday, they'd seen $4 million spent to run abortion commercials since last Friday's Supreme Court ruling.

Democrats aim to spotlight the issue between now and November, when the party will be defending their razor-thin House and Senate majorities as they face historical headwinds in an extremely difficult political climate fueled by skyrocketing gas prices, soaring inflation and President Bidens underwater approval ratings.

Party strategists see a silver lining in the seismic overturning of Roe v. Wade and the returning the issue of legalized abortion to state legislatures.

It may offer Democrats a chance to alter the campaign conversation, energize the left-leaning base, and win back key female and suburban voters who helped the Democrats win back the House in 2018 but appeared to cross party lines in some 2020 congressional contests and again in GOP victories in elections in Virginia and New Jersey last November.

Abortion-rights protesters gather outside the Supreme Court in Washington, Friday, June 24, 2022. ((AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana))

Democrats point to public opinion polls conducted in the wake of Supreme Court ruling that indicate a solid majority of Americans disagree with the opinion and that it may motivate more Democrats rather than Republicans to vote in the midterms. They aim to turn anger about the decision into support at the ballot box, even as Republicans aim to keep attention on rising prices and crime less than five months before the midterms.

HEAD TO THE FOX NEWS ELECTIONS CENTER FOR THE LATEST PRIMARY RESULTS

"There are going to be dozens and dozens of close races on Election Day and the abortion issue is going to swing it to the Democratic candidate in a lot of them,"veteran Democratic pollster John Anzalone told Fox News.

"Abortion is going to be illegal in a large swath of America on Election Day in places voters never thought it would be and there will be a reckoning by voters on GOP candidates who support a ban and often without exceptions for rape and incest.This puts GOP candidates on the defensive when just a month a go only Democrats were on the defensive," Anzalone, the chief pollster for President Biden's 2020 campaign, emphasized.

But longtime Republican consultant David Carney argued that "saying something works and knowing something works is not the same thing. Democrats use this issue like the boy who cried wolf. They do this every cycle when they have no agenda."

Carney, a veteran of numerous GOP presidential and statewide campaigns over the past couple of decades, acknowledged that "obviously people are concerned in some states" over the issue of abortion.

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But he said the midterms top issue is "going to be $5 dollar gas" as well as the skyrocketing prices for home heating oil, natural gas, and electricity.

And Republicans aim to counter the attacks over abortion by spotlighting what they describe as the Democrats' "radical position of supporting late-term abortions up until the moment of birth."

Paul Steinhauser is a politics reporter based in New Hampshire.

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Democrats flood airwaves with abortion ads in the week since monumental Supreme Court Roe v. Wade ruling - Fox News