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Democrats are growing gloomier in their outlook for the midterms next year amid President BidenJoe BidenBiden restates commitment to 'one China' policy on Taiwan in call with Xi Biden raises human rights with China's Xi during four hour meeting Biden, Xi hold 'candid' discussion amid high tensions MOREs poor approval ratings, nagging economic issues and GOP advantages in the redistricting process.

Sen. Patrick LeahyPatrick Joseph LeahyLeahy retirement shakes up Vermont politics The Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - Trump officials face legal consequences over defying subpoenas Sen. Patrick Leahy says he won't seek reelection MOREs (D-Vt.) announcement Monday that he will retire cast another spotlight on the growing uncertainty over whether Democrats will be able to keep control of the Senate and House.

Leahy is 81, has served eight terms and said it was time for a new generation to represent Vermont.

It is time to put down the gavel. It is time to pass the torch to the next Vermonter, he said at a press conference at the Vermont State House.

His seat also is unlikely to be a big GOP target given the Democratic leanings of Vermont.

Yet it was easy to see how the prospect of losing the Senate majority in a chamber now split 50-50 between the parties could be a factor for a veteran senator to decide to hang it up.

Theres also the growing prospect that Republicans capture the House, which means the chances of Democrats passing new laws will fall dramatically.

Leahy is far from the first Democrat to announce their retirement.

Already three senior House Democrats who were expected to cruise to reelection next year, Reps. Mike DoyleMichael (Mike) F. DoyleDemocrats brace for flood of retirements after Virginia rout Pennsylvania Republican becomes latest COVID-19 breakthrough case in Congress House passes bills to secure telecommunications infrastructure MORE (Pa.), David PriceDavid Eugene PriceDemocrats brace for flood of retirements after Virginia rout North Carolina legislature approves new US House map Democracy's sudden peril was an inside-job MORE (N.C.) and John YarmuthJohn Allen YarmuthFighting Biden's dangerous reshaping of the Federal Reserve Democrats brace for flood of retirements after Virginia rout The Hill's Morning Report Presented by ExxonMobil House sprints for Build Back Better, infrastructure votes today MORE (Ky.), have announced they will not seek new terms.

It definitely seems like something changed in August, said Kyle Kondik, an analyst at the University of Virginias Center for Politics, who pointed to Bidens sharp drop in approval ratings after the messy U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, which he called a catalyst for the changing political environment.

Democrats loss in Novembers gubernatorial contest in Virginia and a near loss in New Jersey have also dimmed Democratic moods.

There are lots of other problems that have emerged this summer. COVID hasnt gone away, inflation, gas prices. The public is just in kind of a surly mood and the results from two weeks ago were not good for Democrats, Kondik added.

Kondik says no one can know for sure all the reasons why Leahy decided to step down at a time when 81 isnt that old for holding office in Washington. But he said the move will be interpreted as waning confidence among Democrats about their ability to hold onto power.

When senior members retire its sort of interpreted as a tacit acknowledgment of the environment, he said. There have been some senior Democrats in the House who have retired who also, like Leahy, probably would have easily won reelection had they run again.

It may be that these are senior members who were on the fence and were thinking, Boy, its looking more and more possible that the Republicans could be in the majority in both the House and the Senate and do I really want to go back to serving in the minority? he added.

Democratic strategists acknowledge the political environment doesnt look good at the moment but say theres time to turn around Bidens sagging poll numbers, which was a headwind for candidates in Virginia and New Jersey earlier this month.

Democrats did get some good news Monday, as lawmakers from both parties attended a signing ceremony for the bipartisan infrastructure bill that represents a significant win for Biden.

If you look at all the polling, were not in the best shape. Hopefully things are going to change before the midterms next year, said Jim Manley, a Democratic strategist and former senior Senate aide.

As recently as May, Leahy had seemed to be poised to run for a ninth term. Six months ago, he was asking his colleagues to support his reelection campaign if he decided to go ahead with one.

He held a fundraiser in May and raised $300,000 for his campaign account during the first quarter of the year.

Marcelle Leahy began treatment for a chronic form of leukemia earlier this year, and that may have factored into her husbands decision to leave Congress.

Some Democratic senators were surprised by Leahys news.

Im always surprised when anybody puts in their retirement, but I think his situation is such that hes given a lot of wonderful years, and you know about his wife, said Sen. Mazie HironoMazie Keiko HironoSanders backs Kaiser Permanente workers ahead of Monday strike Democrats scramble for path forward after election setbacks Democrats ramp up filibuster talks after voting rights setback MORE (D-Hawaii).

Steven S. Smith, a political science professor at Washington University in St. Louis, said its perfectly reasonable for a senator to decide to move on after serving more than 45 years in the Senate.

Heres a guy retiring more or less when he should, when hes over 80, still reasonably healthy and has some other things he wants to do with his life, he said. I cant help but think that thats the primary consideration.

But Smith noted that Leahys ability to hold onto his post as Senate president pro tempore, which comes with many perks including the second-largest security detail in Congress and extra office space in the Capitol, is uncertain.

Whether hes counting on the Senate to turn or not, Im not sure, he said. The Senate, anyone would say, is up for grabs. Maybe a 50-50 proposition.

Smith also said theres a better than 50-50 chance that the House flips, which means that Democrats ability to pass landmark legislation after 2023 is at serious risk.

He said if Republicans are in the majority after 2022, it would affect what legislative record the next Congress could develop and what role Leahy could have in that process.

And besides, being in Congress right now is more or less unpleasant. Its just not the case that you can accomplish surprising things by working with the other side, he added.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) put out a statement asserting that Republicans have no chance of picking up Leahys vacant seat next year.

Vermont is a blue state that has not elected a Republican to statewide federal office in more than 20 years and Democrats look forward to winning this Senate seat in 2022, DSCC Chairman Gary PetersGary PetersSen. Patrick Leahy says he won't seek reelection Hillicon Valley The race to report cyber breaches Senators move to include 72 hour timeline for cyber incident reporting in defense bill MORE (Mich.) said in a statement.

A senior GOP aide, however, said its a sign of the times and the favorable political environment for Republicans that the DSCC even had to put out a statement insisting that theres no chance of Leahys seat flipping in what has been a reliably blue state.

Continued here:
Midterm gloom grows for Democrats | TheHill - The Hill

Senators are bracing for their debate over President BidenJoe BidenBiden restates commitment to 'one China' policy on Taiwan in call with Xi Biden raises human rights with China's Xi during four hour meeting Biden, Xi hold 'candid' discussion amid high tensions MOREs climate and social spending bill to keep them in Washington until, and potentially into, the holidays.

The timeline for the legislation has repeatedly slipped, but Democrats say they want to get it done this year even if that means working into Christmas or beyond, when Congress typically tries to take a weeks-long break.

House Democrats are hoping to pass the bill this week, with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) planning to release an analysis by the end of the day Friday. But even if the House sends the bill across the Capitol, it could still be weeks before it comes up in the Senate.

Its going to be intense, said Sen. Tim KaineTimothy (Tim) Michael KaineCongress barrels toward end-of-year pileup Senators urging federal investigation into Liberty University's handling of sexual assault claims Biden faces high stakes with progressives on Fed pick MORE (D-Va.). Im hoping we have off between Christmas and New Years, but Im expecting we will run it up until pretty close to Christmas.

Sen. Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterManchin says he has 'no idea' if he'll run for reelection in 2024 Spending bill faces Senate scramble The good, bad, and uglyof Tester'sBlackfoot-Clearwater Stewardship Act MORE (D-Mont.), asked when he thought Congress would be wrapped for the year, guessed: New Years Eve.

Do you have plans for Christmas? You can spend it at my house because my plans are screwed up too, Tester said, adding that he envisioned Congress finishing its work very late in December.

The threat of a Christmas pileup is a step back from Majority Leader Charles SchumerChuck SchumerChristie: Trump rhetoric about stolen election led to Jan. 6 attack Senate Republicans call on colleagues to reject government spending bills without border wall funding Schumer presses Biden to tap oil reserves to lower gas prices MOREs (D-N.Y.) initial hope that the Senate could bring the measure up this week and pass it before leaving for a weeks-long Thanksgiving recess. If the Senate makes changes, which appears likely, the House will have to pass the bill a second time before it goes to Bidens desk.

But now the bill is not expected to come to the Senate floor until at least after Thanksgiving, where it faces competition on a crowded schedule.

The Senate will start debate on a sweeping defense policy bill this week, but senators dont expect to finish it before the recess. Though the National Defense Authorization Act is largely bipartisan, it eats up roughly two weeks of Senate floor time.

Instead, senators could return on Monday, Nov. 29, needing to finish the defense bill and move quickly to avert a government shutdown with funding running out starting Saturday, Dec. 4, two deadlines that would only further delay Bidens spending package.

Lawmakers havent said how long of a stopgap funding bill, known as a continuing resolution (CR), they will try to pass by early next month. But they are looking at the option of a weeks-long CR to try to buy more time for a year-end government funding deal.

What I understand is were going to be operating on a continuing resolution until maybe the week before Christmas, said Sen. John CornynJohn CornynDemocrats face steep climb in Texas as O'Rourke mounts governor bid Senate GOP worries Trump could derail bid for majority Republican Senators request military aid for Taiwan amid pressure from China MORE (R-Texas), an adviser to Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellLeahy retirement shakes up Vermont politics Trump dismisses report McConnell tried to disinvite him from Biden inauguration McConnell tried to disinvite Trump from Biden inaugural, book claims MORE (Ky.), adding that one option was a CR through Dec. 17.

That would set up another funding deadline closer to Christmas.

This is creating quite a traffic jam, Cornyn added.

Schumer, in a letter to his caucus sent Sunday, didnt put a hard timeline on when the Senate will take up the Build Back Better Act (BBBA), though he said at the White House on Monday that they would try to pass the rest of Bidens spending plan in a few weeks.

Timing of consideration of the BBBA in the Senate will largely depend on when the House sends us the bill and when CBO finalizes their scores for all of the committees, which are needed to complete the Byrd Bath process, Schumer wrote in the Sunday letter, referring to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

The Senate could need roughly a week to get the bill ready for the floor, based on estimates from Democrats.

Democratic senators are hoping to finish conversations with the parliamentarian this week on if the spending bill complies with a budget resolution that they approved earlier this year, which laid the way for it and included general top-lines. Theyre also expected to start conversations with the parliamentarian this week about if it complies with the Byrd rule, which lays out the budget process they are using on the social spending bill.

And to get the spending bill through the Senate given unified GOP opposition, theyll need total unity from all 50 Democrats, something they dont have yet.

Senate Democrats are still negotiating on a myriad of provisions including climate change measures, paid leave and tax reform. And Sen. Joe ManchinJoe ManchinBiden signs trillion infrastructure bill into law The Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - Trump officials face legal consequences over defying subpoenas The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by ExxonMobil - Will Biden's big bill pass the House this week? MORE (D-W.Va.), a key swing vote, raised new concerns about inflation after data last week showed that it hit a 30-year high.

Manchin, who has previously called for a strategic pause, didnt rule out, or in, that the spending bill could be ready to pass this month.

Im not in charge of the calendar, he said.

Manchin added to another gaggle of reporters, Lets wait and see what inflation does.

Schumer warned his caucus of the impending end-of-year pileup, telling senators to please keep your schedule flexible for the remainder of the calendar year.

I am confident we can get each of these important items done this year, but it will likely take some long nights and weekends, he said.

Schumers warning appeared to be sinking in with senators.

Sen. Jerry MoranGerald (Jerry) MoranSenators seek to permanently expand telehealth eligibility Senate GOP signals they'll help bail out Biden's Fed chair Star gymnasts call on Congress to dissolve US Olympics board MORE (R-Kan.) was overheard whistling as he left the Capitol after a vote on Monday night. Asked by The Hill if he was whistling a Christmas carol, Moran confirmed that it was Ill Be Home for Christmas but warned that the next line in the song is if only in my dreams.

See the original post:
Democrats face squeeze on Biden's spending bill | TheHill - The Hill

Jason Furman, who served as former President Barack Obamas top economic adviser, tweeted Thursday that the distributional effect of the Houses $80,000 SALT cap is even worse than I had feared," citing a Tax Policy Center analysis released earlier in the day.

This could be greatly ameliorated by adding an income limit for the expansion of the cap so that no one making over a middle-class income, broadly defined, gets it, Furman said. Some Senators have been talking about this, I hope they do it.

The TPC analysis shows the benefit of the $80,000 cap for those cut off from relief under the Sanders-Menendez proposal: Households earning between $500,000 and $1 million next year would receive an average tax cut of $6,100 under the House bill.

And while overall households earning over $1 million next year would see tax increases totaling about $68,000 on average, within that group nearly two-thirds of millionaires would still see tax cuts worth nearly $16,800.

Tax cuts for higher earners wouldnt span the full decade under the House plan because it extends the cap past its current 2025 expiration. That means later in the decade, the $80,000 cap would be a burden, rather than relief.

More:
Democrats' 'SALT' headache hangs over budget reconciliation bill - Roll Call

The Democratic members of the Assembly Committee on Campaigns and Elections said on Monday that they would be refusing to meet privately with former Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Michael Gableman, who is conducting a widely criticized review of the 2020 election.

Gableman, after a heated appearance before the committee last week, attempted to meet privately with the Democratic members, which they said they refused because they believe his work should be done in public.

After refusing to answer questions or provide information in public, Mike Gableman is seeking private meetings with Democratic members of the Committee on Campaigns and Elections, a joint statement from Reps. Mark Spreitzer (D-Beloit), Lisa Subeck (D-Madison) and Jodi Emerson (D-Eau Claire) declared. We will not be a part of Mike Gablemans attempts to hide from public scrutiny. Mike Gableman had a chance to answer questions in public, but he chose not to. We see no reason to meet with him in private.

Gablemans review was originally supposed to be wrapped up by the end of October but Assembly Speaker Robin Vos said last month it could go into next year. Members of Gablemans staff have also been kept secret, with the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reporting last month that a lawyer working for Gableman could only be identified as Carol. When he began his review, Gableman sent requests for documents to elections clerks across the state from an anonymous Gmail account with the name John Delta.

The Democrats on the committee said Vos should end Gablemans sham review and criticized the conclusions Gableman has already made.

Last week, Mike Gableman appeared before the Assembly Committee on Campaigns and Elections and attempted to bluster and grandstand through an entire public meeting about his investigation rather than give Committee members and the public the information they deserve, the Democrats said. His office is funded with public tax dollars, but he has routinely refused to be up front and honest with the public about how he is spending those taxpayer funds.

During his hour and a half with the Committee, Gableman repeatedly rejected the idea of providing basic information like the names of the people who work for him and what their credentials are, they continued. Gableman flatly refused to commit to conducting his investigation in public hearings in front of the Committee on Campaigns and Elections. Gablemans interim report provided no new information, instead simply rehashing cherry-picked information from other entities and providing Gablemans own biased commentary.

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Democrats on Assembly elections committee refuse to meet with Gableman - Wisconsin Examiner

The Democrats have a 2024 conundrum, with heir apparent Vice President Harris presenting a maze of questions and complications. Lets start with the foundational problem: her boss, President BidenJoe BidenBiden restates commitment to 'one China' policy on Taiwan in call with Xi Biden raises human rights with China's Xi during four hour meeting Biden, Xi hold 'candid' discussion amid high tensions MORE.

A USA Today-Suffolk University poll conducted last week had Bidens job approval rating dipping to 38 percent, with 59 percent disapproving. Also, 64 percent of the registered voters surveyed opposed Biden running for reelection, including 28 percent of Democrats.

Furthermore, a mid-October NPR-Marist poll revealed that 44 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents thought someone else besides Biden would have the best chance of winning the presidency.

Maybe now Biden is rethinking his March 25 statement: My plan is to run for reelection, thats my expectation. After all, Bidens expectation might be thwarted by the growing perception that he is a weak leader not up to the task of governing and shaken by the shellacking Democrats received in last weeks elections.

Democratic strategists dream of a turnaround after a potential string of legislative victories. But with inflation soaring, their nightmare is the 2022 midterm elections warning of a red tidal wave, with Republicans likely to win control of the House and perhaps the Senate.

And the wave could crush Harris if she stars in a potential Republican attack ad. In the final days of the tight Virginia gubernatorial race, while campaigning with Democratic nominee Terry McAuliffeTerry McAuliffeInfrastructure updates only get us halfway we need Build Back Better bill, too Kemp makes pitch to conservatives, independents in new campaign ad Democrats expect to pass .75T Biden package this week MORE, Harris displayed a stunning lack of political savvy when she said, What happens in Virginia will, in large part, determine what happens in 2022, 2024 and on."

Harris violated a cardinal political rule never publicly state the future meaning of a race that your candidate could lose and her candidate was walloped.

If the midterms turn out to be a Democratic repudiation, stick a fork in Joe Bidens presidency and expect the following questions to occupy copious amounts of cable bandwidth.

1) When will Biden announce that he is not running for reelection?

Certainly earlier than President Lyndon Baines Johnson when he announced his decision not to seek a second term on March 31, 1968 only eight months from Election Day.

Herein lies the dilemma: The earlier Biden announces his lame-duck status, the more his power decreases, reflecting the aura of a failed presidency. So, naturally, attention then shifts to the Democrats presidential horse race. But more consequential is the national security perspective if enemies think a defeated Biden signals an opportune time for aggression.

Conversely, the longer Biden delays his announcement, the more those seeking the nomination will be handicapped. Nearly two years are needed for an organizational build-up to raise the megamillions of dollars required to wage a successful presidential primary campaign.

For example, then-Sen. Barack ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaEquilibrium/Sustainability Presented by Southern Company COVID-19 kills snow leopards at US zoo David Axelrod calls Rittenhouse judge 'defense attorney on the bench' Manchin set to make or break Biden's climate pledge MORE (D-Ill.)announced his 2008 presidential campaign on Feb. 10, 2007, early in the election cycle.

Then-Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisWhite House dismisses talk of Harris-Biden rift Christie: Trump rhetoric about stolen election led to Jan. 6 attack Biden aides offer praise for Harris after critical CNN report MORE (D-Calif.)announced her 2020 presidential aspirations on Jan. 21, 2019. But she quickly flamed out and withdrewon Dec. 3, 2019.

2) Will Harris pressure Biden to announce his 2024 plans early? Then she could begin acting like a president-in-waiting while potentially keeping her primary opponents at bay.

3) If Biden announces that he will be a one-term president, when will he endorse Harris as his successor? Or will Biden choose to mimicObamain 2020? Remember, Obama held off endorsing his former vice president until April 14, after Biden had clinched the nomination most likely to avoid embarrassment.

But will Harris even want Bidens endorsement if his job approval rating is below 40 percent? In that case, will she seek to separate herself from him? Any of these scenarios will be an awkward, clumsy dance between Joe and Kamala.

4) At the heart of the Harris 2024 conundrum are her consistently dismal job approval ratings the latest at 28 percent with 51 percent disapproving. And Harriss RealClearPolitics average favorable rating is 40 percent with 51 percent unfavorable.

So what if in early 2023 her ratings are still low, and general election match-up polls show her losing to most or all potential GOP opponents? How then do Democratic presidential candidates wage a primary campaign to defeat the incumbent vice president who is the first minority woman to hold that office?

5) Will Democrats elect Harris as their nominee because its her turn? Historically, the its their turn strategy does not end well for either party. (See Clinton, Hillary 2016.) White House winners are usually charismatic leaders with their fingers on the nation's pulse, and Harris falls short on both. President Biden was a notable exception. He was hardly charismatic but fit the bill when Americans sought a no drama return to normalcy after four years of President TrumpDonald TrumpHouse Freedom Caucus elects Rep. Scott Perry as new chairman Meadows 'between a rock and a hard space' with Trump, Jan. 6 panel On The Money Biden caps off infrastructure week MORE.

6) What if in 2024 Harris is the incumbent president either through an unspeakable event or because Biden resigns for health reasons to give Harris an electoral advantage? Anything can happen between now and 2024.

7) Will Republicans support Harriss candidacy by sending her money and forming pro-Harris groups as a ruse to help her win the 2024 nomination? Yes is my guess.

Finally, it appears the American people are just not that into Harris. She rubs many voters the wrong way branded as an uninspiring leftist and weak leader although shes credited with a historical gender and race breakthrough.

Now, imagine a 2024 election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. It would be MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) with an unpopular sharp-tongued incumbent female vice president taking on a twice-impeached former president with authoritarian tendencies avenging his 2020 defeat. Our nation deserves better.

Myra Adams writes about politics and religion for numerous publications. She is a RealClearPolitics contributor and served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008. Follow her on Twitter @MyraKAdams.

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Kamala Harris a 2024 problem for Biden and the Democrats | TheHill - The Hill