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BRENDEN MOORE

Lee Enterprises' Illinois state government reporter Brenden Moore talks with Illinois redistricting expert Frank Calabrese about the state's new maps.

Plugging in newly available 2020 data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Illinois lawmakers approved an amended state legislative redistricting map last week.

It passed over the strenuous objections of Republicans and good government groups, who decried the process employed by majority Democrats.

Republicans and groups like theMexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund have sued to have it thrown out and may even have a good case.

But, if the maps do stand up in court, as Democrat-drawn maps have the past couple redistricting cycles, their impact will be felt for the next decade.

Illinois State Rep. Lisa Hernandez, D-Cicero, holds her hand over her heart as she is thanked by Illinois State Rep. Jehan Gordon-Booth, D-Peoria, after passage of the Illinois legislative maps proposal on the floor of the Illinois House of Representatives at the Illinois State Capitol in Springfield on Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2021.

To get a better idea of what this map means for representation in Springfield, I spoke with Frank Calabrese, a political consultant who has become the unofficial mapmaker and go-to Illinois redistricting expert this cycle.

Below is a transcription of our conversation, edited lightly for length and clarity:

LEE ENTERPRISES: Give the 40,000-foot view of these new legislative maps. What were the key takeaways and what does it mean for the next decade of legislative elections?

FRANK CALABRESE: The big picture view is this really solidifies Springfield under Democratic control. It's a very aggressive map. Also, it's made to create chaos within the Republican caucus. So, you see all these Republicans having to run against other Republicans.

There's 45 House Republicans. And of that 45, there are seven pairings, so there's 14 members that are affected by this ... So, just imagine that a third of your caucus is going to have to make a decision whether or not they're going to run against another member. That creates a lot of internal chaos.

It's a great map for the Democrats. They're going to be in power with the supermajority for the next 10 years. It would take an extreme realignment nationally to change that.

LEE: Is this map merely about maintaining Democratic majorities or are there opportunities for the party to expand their majorities? If so, whats a realistic number?

CALABRESE: Toward the end of the decade, I think the Democrats will realistically pick up 80 seats (in the House), so a net gain of seven. But that's kind of long term. I think initially, they'll pick up four in the next election. In the Senate, I have them losing seats.

In the House, there's two open seats right now that are Democratic: it's that Bloomington-Normal seat that goes to Bartonville and near Peoria. That's probably a Democratic pickup.

And then you have a seat in the northwest suburbs ... which is parts of Palatine and Arlington Heights. That's pretty Democratic now. Ten or 20 years ago, that used to be very Republican, but a lot of well-educated areas have really swung Democratic because of Trump.

The Republican Party, they're still embracing Trump. And what that means is that Republicans are going to do well in the rural areas and they're going to do bad in suburban areas.

The revised Illinois state legislative districts, as drawn by redistricting expert Frank Calabrese. Lawmakers approved adjustments in late August. The map will be in effect for the next 10 years.

And then you have (Republican Rep. Mark Batinicks) district, which is like Plainfield. It has gotten significantly more Democratic. He could win in the midterm it's probably going to be a Republican midterm. So that's one of those seats where he could win in 2022, but he'll probably lose in 2024 and in the future with these trends becoming worse and the suburbs getting more and more Democratic. And the same thing with Keith Wheeler. He could win I would call it a toss up in his district.

It's really unlikely that Mark Batinick and Keith Wheeler are going to be there for 10 years. They could be there for two years, but much longer than that, I think it's going to be tough.

The other pickup (opportunity is state Rep. Jackie Haas' Kankakee-based district). Her district was a rural white district that had some labor influence, which kind of made it a swing district. Now her district's a quarter Black. They put a lot of the Black population of Kankakee in her district. And so Haas' district, it's a tossup. It was basically 50/50 between Trump and Biden, but it's trending Democratic. She could win in that district in the midterm, but in the future, I think that's a Democratic pickup.

LEE: The maps passed in May, but lawmakers had to go back in August to tweak them. Why was this necessary?

CALABRESE: One of my critiques of the Democrats' map is that they made a map for 2019. And the problem is you're supposed to redistrict for 2020, right? So to no surprise, areas that are shrinking in population, they lost more population. And areas that are growing, especially areas that are growing rapidly, they gained a lot more.

I live in Chicago, and if you build a high-rise and 5,000 people move in, that can happen in a year. So that's what happened the downtown area grew and that wasn't incorporated in the 2019 data. So Lamont Robinson's district was 15% over the mean, (which) is about 108,000 per House district.

What they should have done is they should have made those districts smaller in population anticipating future growth. They should have built the trends into their map.

And now the Republicans have an argument saying that the map that they passed in May is void and they're going to go to court saying that it was a bad map in May, they just can't pass whatever to avoid a (redistricting) commission. They're going to go to court and it adds a degree to uncertainty of whether this map can stand.

Illinois State Rep. Tim Butler, R-Springfield, talks with Illinois State Rep. Lisa Hernandez, D-Cicero, after passage of the Illinois legislative maps proposal on the floor of the Illinois House of Representatives at the Illinois State Capitol in Springfield, Ill., Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2021.

This concept of being void from the beginning is very strong in Illinois. So if the Republicans can convince a state court that this map had problems from the beginning, then there is a legal doctrine in Illinois to kind of throw the whole thing out from the beginning.

In my opinion, this is not a 100% Democratic map yet because they still have a lot of legal obstacles.

Also, I'm really surprised that the Democrats didn't do anything with Latino districts. The Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund, I think, has a meritorious lawsuit.

And they didn't work with these Latino districts at all. You can actually argue that these Latino districts got worse with the revision. So, that's something that they're going to have to litigate in court. And, if I was the Speaker or the Senate President, I would want to avoid that. So I'm a little puzzled why they didn't try to appease a lot of the concerns from these Latino interest groups.

LEE: Expand upon how some of these various communities of interests did in this map. The phrase that the Democrats have used repeatedly is that the map is "a model for the nation" when it comes to diversity. Does this map, especially given some of the legal challenges from some of these Latino groups, stand up to that billing?

CALABRESE: The Democrats ... spoke about that in May, but I have not really heard that from them recently because I think there's an acknowledgement that this is not about increasing community representation of certain interest groups.

So this map helps Black representation as much as you can, but that's kind of almost a byproduct of helping out Democratic incumbents.

The Arab and Palestinian community, they presented their own version of a map, they attended every legislative hearing that I observed, and they got absolutely nothing. Their community, which is based in the southwest suburbs of Cook County, was divided in the four Democratic House seats. And there's really no way for the Palestinian community to elect one of their own They wanted an influence district and they didn't get it.

The reason is because these districts were made to preserve the incumbents. That's first and foremost protecting and enabling Democratic incumbents, and that comes at the expense of a lot of these other minority groups that were advocating for their own districts.

Also, the Orthodox Jewish community, they were advocating for a district that included their community. By and large, they got some of what they wanted, but their community still split among three districts on the far North Side of Chicago.

So I think it's very hard to market this as a model for the nation. What it is is a very good map for political power, and I'm impressed with some of the districts they put together in terms of maintaining power in Springfield. And, at the end of the day, that's what matters for the people that drew these maps.

LEE: Were there any trends you noticed in the drawing of downstate districts?

CALABRESE: So downstate, there was a lot of aggressive packing of Republican incumbents with each other. And then there were some crafty drawing with Bloomington-Normal to make that a Democratic district.

I think Democrats left some on the table, per se, with how they drew Champaign-Urbana. So state Rep. Carol Ammons' district is like 80% Democratic, something crazy. A Republican wouldn't have a prayer winning that district. So Carol Ammons' district is super Democratic, but then there's a Republican district in Danville with Mike Marron in there which is like a 51% Biden district, which means (Marron) win at the local level.

So, the Democrats could have made Carol Ammons' district less Democratic and given those Democrats to the Danville district. They didn't do that. I thought that was kind of odd.

Another significant change is Rock Island that Senate seat is changing drastically, so it goes all the way down to Macomb. It takes in a lot of college towns. So, I think the Democrats are really crafty to change the Rock Island Senate seat ... I think that's going to be a pretty easy Democratic pickup.

The Democrats tried to make a far southern Illinois district more competitive the 118th. They combined Cairo with Carbondale with Marion. That district voted for Trump twice, but also voted for JB Pritzker, I believe. So it's one of those districts that will be competitive in a Democratic year.

LEE: During the last remap, there were still Democrats like Brandon Phelps and Gary Forby that represented some really rural, conservative areas. Whether through retirement or losing reelection, these members have gone away. How has this political realignment impacted the way Democrats drew the map?

CALABRESE: The most rural Democratic district right now is probably (state Rep. Lance Yednock's district), and they acknowledge that he's in trouble and they redistricted him to include DeKalb. And so now it's a bunch of union guys and a bunch of college kids.

So you're not going to see rural Democrats anytime soon, in my opinion. And I think the Democrats kind of gave up on them. But they did try to make the 118th competitive JB Pritzker did win that district. But again, that district is not Democratic because of a bunch of rural farmers who want to vote Democratic, it's Democratic because there's a significant Black population in Cairo and there's a lot of college kids in Carbondale. It's not the Democratic district of Paul Simon and Glen Poshard. Trump really took that out.

And in the suburbs, Lake County, I remember that being a very Republican County. And now, Republicans are really on the retreat. There's Republican areas in Lake County, but there's no countywide Republican officeholders, I believe. DuPage County has one now. But both Lake County and DuPage County, the county boards are Democratic.

So, yeah, there's this realignment. I think the new map reflects that. I'm of the opinion that Republicans can still make up areas in the suburbs. But when it comes to rural areas, I just think Democrats are are largely extinguished. I don't really see that coming back. I just think the cultural divides' too high.

LEE: So an example of this would be the Springfield-Decatur Senate seat, formerly represented by Andy Manar and now by Doris Turner. The new map cuts out rural Macoupin and Montgomery counties and adds more urban parts of Springfield.

CALABRESE: Right. So Manar's district, I get a lot of grief actually from Democrats when I say Manar's district is a likely Republican pickup.

From my experience, appointed incumbents don't do anything for an incumbent advantage. And that district significantly voted for the Republicans in every significant election. So that's going to be a really tough race for Doris Turner. And they tried to help her out. They gave her every urban precinct that she possibly could get, but it's going to be an uphill, uphill battle.

LEE: So, despite being a challenging map, Republicans have some pickup opportunities.

CALABRESE: I think that the Republicans can pick up a DuPage County seat. I think they can pick up Doris Turner's seat and the Metro East district, which is represented by Rochelle Crowe, that voted for Trump twice. It also voted for Erica Harold. It did vote for JB Pritzker, they have a very strong union influence there.

So I think that district is going to be really dependent upon if Crowe runs for reelection. She's on the shortlist to be U.S. Attorney. So if she does get appointed U.S. attorney, I believe that's a very good opportunity for Republican pickup in the Senate.

Republicans, I think, could pick up seats in the Senate just because Democrats are overextended, I mean it's really crazy. They have 41 seats in the Senate. As a translation, that would be 82 seats in the House, where Democrats have 73.

LEE: Any parting thoughts?

CALABRESE: Overall, I would give the map high marks on maintaining Democratic power in Springfield, which obviously was in my opinion one of their highest priorities.

If I was to draw this map with the goal of solidifying a Democratic supermajority, this is the map I would draw. If I was to draw a map to help every community of interest that wanted help, this is not the map.

The Democrat-controlled Illinois General Assembly approved 665 bills this legislative session, with the vast majority awaiting Gov. J.B. Pritzker's signature.

But, Pritzker has signed 42 bills into law. A handful of those will take effect Jan. 1, 2022, but most went into effect immediately upon signing or will take effect this Thursday.

Here are some notable new laws in effect now or on Thursday that Illinoisans should know.

With pandemic-related delays to U.S. Census redistricting numbers, lawmakers moved back the state's 2022 primary election from March 15 to June 28. The legislation also makes Election Day a state holiday, requiresevery county to have at least one universal voting centerand allow people to be added to a permanent vote-by-mail list. (SB825)

Some pandemic-induced changes to voting for the 2020 general election, such as vote-by-mail and curbside drop-off, will now be permanent features of future elections. (House Bill 1871)

As they are tasked with doing every 10 years, lawmakersapproved new district boundaries for the Illinois House and Senate. The Democrat-drawn maps, which utilized the U.S. Census' American Community Survey instead of waiting for the decennial census numbers that will arrive later this year, have been challenged in court by Republicans and some other groups. (HB2777)

The seven-person Illinois Supreme Court's district boundaries were successfully redrawn for the first time since the 1960s. (SB642)

There was no more controversial bill that passed this year than House Bill 3653, also known as the SAFE-T Act, which passed during the lame duck session this January. The provisions ending cash bail and requiring all police to wear body cameras will not take effect until 2023 and 2025, respectively. But starting Thursday, police will be required to render aid to the injured, intervene when a fellow officer is using excessive force and and be limited in use of force. It also offers stricter guidelines for the decertification of officers and would allow people to file anonymous complaints of police misconduct. (HB3653)

Lenders are now prohibited from charging more than 36% annual percentage rate on consumer loans. The average rate in Illinois was nearly 300% prior to the law's signing. (SB1792)

Tucked into the state's fiscal year 2022 budget is $10 million for a "vaccine lottery." All Illinois residents vaccinated by July 1 will be automatically entered into the contest. It includes$7 million in cash prizes to vaccinated adults, ranging from $100,000 to $1 million, and $3 million in scholarship awards to vaccinated youth. (SB2800)

Created guidelines for distributing more than $1 billion in federal stimulus funds for COVID-related housing relief. Alsocreates automatic sealing of evictions during the pandemic. (SB2877)

Victims in personal injury and wrongful death cases will be allowed to collect interest from defendantsfrom the time a lawsuit is filed. It is meant to incentivize settlement of these cases. It was supported by the trial lawyers and opposed by business groups. (SB72)

All casino applicants in Illinois are now required to enter into a project-labor agreement when seeking a new or renewed license. (SB1360)

Provides that a victim's criminal history or felony status shall not automatically prevent compensation to that victim or the victim's family. Extends the applicant's period for submitting requested information to 45 days from 30 days and provides that a final award shall not exceed $45,000, up from $27,000, for a crime committed on or after August 7, 2022. (HB3295)

Provides that a contract, record, or signature may not be denied legal effect or enforceability simply because it is in electronic form or an electronic record was used in its formation. Provides that if a law requires a record to be in writing, an electronic record satisfies the law. (SB2176)

Brenden Moore is the Illinois state government reporter for Lee Enterprises.

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What an Illinois redistricting expert thinks of Democrats' new maps - Bloomington Pantagraph

Congressional lawmakers are bracing for potential violence at Saturdays Justice for J6 rally at the U.S. Capitol in defense of Donald Trump supporters who stormed the building on Jan. 6 protestingJoe Bidens certification as president.

Dick Durbin, the second-highest-ranking Democrat in the Senate, told reporters he was very concerned about a repeat of Jan. 6-style violence.

Given the violent tendencies of the right-wing extremists who plan to attend, it is obvious that this rally poses a threat to the Capitol, those who work here, and the law enforcement officers charged with protecting our democracy, Reps. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) and Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), who oversee U.S. Capitol Police, said in a statement.

Capitol Police on Monday arrested a man from California near the headquarters of the Democratic National Committee in Washington, not far from the Capitol. He had multiple long knives in his vehicle, which had a swastika and other white supremacist symbols painted on it, police said. Last month, authorities arrested a man who claimed to have bomb near the Capitol.

Law enforcement authorities seem to be taking this weeks planned rally much more seriously than the Jan. 6 Trump rally near the White House that precipitated the violence on Capitol Hill, which resulted in the deaths of five people and the injury of more than 140 police officers.

The fence surrounding the Capitol that stood for months after Jan. 6 is set to return before Saturdays event. The rally will be held at the Union Square plaza on the west lawn of the Capitol a good distance from the building itself.

They seemed very, very well prepared, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Monday after attending a briefing with Capitol Police leaders and other top congressional officials.

The Justice for J6 rally is being organized by Matt Braynard, an ex-campaign employee for Trump. The event is billed as a show of support those arrested in the riot and a demand of justice for Ashli Babbitt, who was shot to death by a police officer as she and other Trump supporters attempted to force her way onto the floor of the House of Representatives, where members of Congress were taking shelter.

Trump and his supporters have attempted to make a martyr out of Babbitt, demanding to know the identity of the officer who shot her.Rep.Madison Cawthorn(R-N.C.) last month falsely referred to Babbitt and those charged with storming the Capitol on Jan. 6 as political hostages and political prisoners. Cawthorn alsopredicted that more bloodshed would follow another stolen presidential election, remarks that were widely criticized for encouraging future violence.

Its unclear whether any Republican lawmakers will attend Saturdays rally. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who along with other Republican lawmakers objected to Bidens electoral victory, told reporters on Monday he didnt believe any members of his conference would be there. The House is currently in recess and isnt scheduled to return until next week.

GOP senators seemed uninterested in discussing the subject when asked about it on Monday.

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who famously raised his fist outside the Capitol on Jan. 6 to the gathering Trump mob and led the Senate effort contesting Bidens victory, said he was more focused on the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The country is in a major crisis. This president has desperately failed and hes failed in a shameful way, said Hawley, calling for Bidens resignation. Everything else is a distraction.

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) said she hoped Saturdays rally would be peaceful.

Any time a crowd gathers theres always a potential for something to go awry but I certainly hope they peacefully protest. Thats what were known for, Capito said.

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Democrats Fear Jan. 6 Redo In Follow-Up Right-Wing Rally At U.S. Capitol - HuffPost

When voters vote in 2022, will they be thinking about Joe Biden, or something else? Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

The signs are not good for Democrats hoping to hang onto their current Washington trifecta in the 2022 midterms. Actually, midterm prospects are never good for parties controlling the White House, unless the president involved has very high job-approval ratings (like Bill Clinton in 1998 and George W. Bush in 2002) and/or something weird is going on (like a gratuitous Republican impeachment effort in 1998 and the aftermath of 9/11 in 2002). By definition, you never know when something strange is on the horizon, but the trajectory of Joe Bidens job-approval ratings, and the cap placed on them by partisan polarization, suggest it is very unlikely hell roll into 2022 on a wave of adulation. As Amy Walter has pointed out, Bidens job-approval ratio is not only underwater now: The ratio between strong approval and strong disapproval is especially upside down; if translated to enthusiasm levels for the midterms, thats deadly, given the tiny margin of Democratic control in the House, where every seat is up in the midterms.

It might be smart for Democrats to stop worrying about the impossible task of holding on to their trifecta and instead just focus on accomplishing as much of Bidens agenda as they can cram through Congress on party-line votes. In fact, they have a decent chance to hold onto the Senate, given the particular seats up in 2022, and that has considerable value in terms of Bidens ability to get executive and judicial nominees confirmed. But you cannot expect Nancy Pelosi to hand over the Speakers gavel to her despised Golden State rival Kevin McCarthy without a fight, so Democrats need a midterm message that transcends Bidens accomplishments or agenda.

That means changing (or at least trying to change) the subject to make the midterms less of the usual referendum on the sitting presidents job performance. What are the options for a big distraction? Lets go through them:

One obvious option is to do what worked to energize Democratic voters and persuade swing voters in 2018 and 2020: Help the narcissistic 45th president keep himself at the center of attention. Indeed, as the contrast between the results in 2018 and 2020 showed, 2022 could replicate the situation where Trump is on the minds of voters who fear him but not on an actual ballot where voters who love him will feel compelled to go to the polls to express their affection (you saw the same phenomenon with Obama supporters in the 2010 and 2014 midterms where their president was not on the ballot).

What would this look like in an ad or media talking points? Probably something like this:

Without question, Gavin Newsoms likely-to-be-successful campaign to beat a recall effort has been heavily focused on tying recall sponsors and Republican replacement candidates to the more lurid and ongoing of Trumps misdeeds, particularly the January 6 insurrection. And its looking like Democratic turnout for the recall election (which ends on September 14) will be robust despite earlier fears to the contrary.

How much of a Newsom win would be attributable to anti-Trump messaging is hard to say, just as its hard to say whether the fears the MAGA folk aroused on January 6 and in subsequent Big Lie activities like post-election audits will remain powerful right through the midterms. Any plans to deploy an anti-Trump message, moreover, will have to deal with the powerful undertow of sentiment among Democrats that the man will go away if they just refuse to talk about him any longer.

Thats why the effectiveness of a loud anti-Trump midterm effort may depend on how close he is to announcing or renouncing a potential 2024 comeback bid, and how visible and successful he is in 2022 primaries and other tests of his grip on the GOP. At a minimum, its clear progressives and the news media should not underestimate Trump a third time, or pass up opportunities to profit on the special loathing he arouses in the Democratic base and many swing voters as well. Running against Kevin McCarthy or Mitch McConnell while ignoring Trump may simply enhance the impression that the worst is over.

Two big state-driven political trends in 2021 offer Democrats another ripe target that has the additional advantage of offering a unified message relevant to candidates at both the federal and state levels: going after GOP attacks on voting rights and reproductive rights. These are clearly base-energizing topics with significant swing-voter appeal, and can help supplement the depiction of Republicans as right-wing radicals with or without Trumps leadership. There is also almost zero chance Republicans will undercut such a message by abandoning their commitment to voter suppression (a key component of their long-term strategy for surviving demographic change) or to the anti-abortion cause (central to the partnership of the GOP with its cultural conservative base).

Its unclear if the timing will be right for a focus on these GOP threats in the midterms. Perhaps the 2021 voter-suppression wave will abate in Republican-controlled state legislatures next year, and the U.S. Supreme Court will hold off on undermining or even abolishing the right to choose an abortion. At present, though, its a decent bet that the iffy legal situation in Texas will keep pro-choice Americans fearful up to the time the Court is considering a frontal assault on abortion rights in Dobbs v. Jackson Womens Health Organization. If as expected the hammer falls down on the right to choose in a June decision, it wont be hard for Democrats to make this a midterm election issue from the top to the bottom of the ballot, with Republicans trying to change the subject while counter-mobilizing their own anti-abortion base. Abortion policy could be a big deal in 2022.

Another apparently successful anti-recall message deployed by Gavin Newsom attacked Republican replacement candidates (especially Larry Elder) for hostility to essential COVID-19 measures. Heres an add based on that theme:

As Ron Brownstein points out, this approach takes advantage of the growing anger of vaccinated Americans especially very highly vaccinated seniors, who also tend to vote in higher proportions in non-presidential elections than younger people against those resisting vaccination and the politicians who defend them. This theme will most definitely be central to Democratic messaging in key states like Florida, Georgia, and Texas, where incumbent Republican governors have in varying degrees aligned themselves with anti-vaxxers to the peril of others (including, most recently, school children). But if it can work in California, it can work in other blue and purple states as well.

The big problem, of course, is our inability to know where we will be with COVID-19 in November of 2022, or even a few months earlier when the midterm campaign is in full swing. At this early point, the best thing about abrasively attacking anti-vaxxers is that it could do some good in the real world of public health, which in turn could help Biden and Democrats generally.

A much more traditional midterm approach for the party holding power in Washington would be to single out the party proposals that poll the best with the public or with key target constituencies, and then campaign like hell against the obstructionists in the other party who are denying (or who have tried to deny) these goodies to the American people. This time-tested strategy has the advantage of being party-unifying, while also if its effectively deployed lifting the presidents job-approval rating as well by identifying him with the most popular stuff in his agenda.

Trouble is, public perceptions of what the president and his party are trying to do are baked into his job-approval ratings already, and may be difficult to change given counter-messaging from the other side and from media outlets across the political spectrum. And as Democrats have come to understand over the years, even if voters really like an array of their policy initiatives taken in isolation, many of the same voters may fear they add up to socialism, or too much spending, or too much spending on people other than us.

In the end, Democratic midterm messaging will likely depend on what the party is most seriously trying to achieve: an against-the-odds House victory, or a win in selected Senate races, or victories in key state races, or mere damage mitigation. The worst approach would be to mix it all up or vacillate in order to appease everyone. So the time for donkeys to choose is growing near.

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Democrats May Have to Change the Subject From Biden in 2022 - New York Magazine

Former U.S. Rep. Bill Clay from Missouri (second from left) with members of the Congressional Black Caucus May 24, 1971 in Washington. D.C. Clay was elected in 1968 after Black state lawmakers joined with Republicans to create a congressional map that included a majority African American 1st District. Also pictured: former Reps. Shirley Chisholm, Charles Diggs, Ron Dellums and Augustus F. Hawkins. Warren K Leffler/Getty Images hide caption

Former U.S. Rep. Bill Clay from Missouri (second from left) with members of the Congressional Black Caucus May 24, 1971 in Washington. D.C. Clay was elected in 1968 after Black state lawmakers joined with Republicans to create a congressional map that included a majority African American 1st District. Also pictured: former Reps. Shirley Chisholm, Charles Diggs, Ron Dellums and Augustus F. Hawkins.

Redistricting is often an exercise in party loyalty in which Republicans draw voting lines to benefit Republicans, while Democrats do the same for other Democrats, but in Missouri's 1st Congressional District more than 50 years ago, an unlikely alliance of state legislators changed those rules.

"It was tradition every 10 years for the legislature to create three congressional districts in the St. Louis metropolitan area," wrote former Congressman William Lacy Clay Sr. (who also goes by Bill Clay) in his 2004 book Bill Clay: A Political Voice at the Grassroots. That was when the population of Black residents would be spread out just enough to water down the potency of their vote.

Then, in the 1960s, more than a dozen Black legislators joined with Republicans and rural Democrats to create a congressional map that included a majority African American 1st District setting the stage for Bill Clay to win the seat in the 1968 election.

Today, Missouri's 1st Congressional District is the only one in the state with a plurality of Black voters.

Mike Jones, a former St. Louis alderman and a keen observer of St. Louis politics, says the continued alliance between Black Democrats and Republicans is necessary because white Democrats in St. Louis are openly hostile to African Americans gaining meaningful power. Jones says he knows this firsthand: He worked for an African-American St. Louis mayor and an African American St. Louis County executive who lost in Democratic primaries to white candidates.

"If you're Black in America doing politics, Republicans have a tendency to be existential enemies. And white Democrats are totally unreliable," Jones says.

Many Black Democrats, like Jones, also believe having an African American member of Congress makes it more likely to elect other Black officials down the ballot. And Jones says it's pretty obvious why Republicans are willing to work with Black Democrats in the redistricting process.

"Because white Democrats would like to spread out Black voters because they're reliable Democrats. Which means, it makes districts that Republicans have to run in more competitive."

Since the 1960s, two Black congressmen have represented the 1st District in Missouri Rep. Bill Clay and his son, William Lacy Clay Jr., who goes by Lacy Clay.

That all changed when Cori Bush, a Black progressive woman, defeated Lacy Clay last August in the Democratic primary. That meant that a Black woman from Missouri was poised to go to Congress for the first time.

And even though Bush still had to win a general election, that was a foregone conclusion since the St. Louis and St. Louis County-based 1st District is the most Democratic in the state, by far.

Former U.S. Rep. Lacy Clay rides in a car during the annual PrideFest parade in St. Louis, Missouri on June 28, 2015. Clay was defeated in the 1st District 2020 primary by current Rep. Cori Bush, also a Democrat. Michael B. Thomas/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

Former U.S. Rep. Lacy Clay rides in a car during the annual PrideFest parade in St. Louis, Missouri on June 28, 2015. Clay was defeated in the 1st District 2020 primary by current Rep. Cori Bush, also a Democrat.

But that relationship between Black Democrats and Republicans is about to be put to the test when Missouri lawmakers go back into session in the coming months to redraw congressional boundaries.

This kind of allyship in redistricting has happened in other states. And while African American political leaders in St. Louis see it as a necessity to maintain power in a racially hostile political environment, others see it as a self-defeating strategy that leads to more Republicans being elected to Congress from Missouri which, they add, hurts Black people in the long run.

While the 1st District's demographics aren't likely to change significantly because of the Voting Rights Act, population loss will force its boundaries to expand into largely white suburbs. It's something that both Rep. Cori Bush and St. Louis' Black political leaders are watching with great interest.

"As an African American woman, I think it's imperative to be able to see representation," says state Rep. LaKeySha Bosley, a Democrat from St. Louis who serves on a committee looking into congressional redistricting. "You need to see yourself in these positions."

It should be noted that it took close to 50 years for Missouri's congressional map to shift from largely Democratic to largely Republican. Much of that can be traced to the state's rural areas souring on Democrats after decades of allegiance. But many Missouri Democrats have been hostile to the 1st District for packing many reliable Democratic voters into one area and making the suburban districts safer for the GOP.

Democratic state Rep. Donna Baringer, a Democrat from St. Louis, says the act of packing is part and parcel with a redistricting strategy that creates safe districts as opposed to competitive ones that are most accountable to voters. She said that voter frustration about not having their voices heard is directly tied to creating a bunch of safe districts.

"I tell them: 'It all comes down to redistricting,' " Baringer says. " 'If we're going to have packed seats, whether it be a House seat, Senate seat or congressional seat, you'll get exactly what you get for the next 10 years.' "

Jeff Smith, a former Democratic Missouri state senator who completed his master's thesis on redistricting and has a Ph.D. in political science, says that Black Democrats in Georgia and North Carolina also forged alliances with Republicans in the past to boost African American representation in their congressional delegation. But while those moves meant more Black people from those states were sent to Washington, D.C., it also resulted in maps that were more favorable to Republicans.

"If you believe that Black political interests are better served by having Black voices in power, then you could conceivably say this is a positive thing," Smith says. "If you believe that Black voices are best served by having the Democratic Party in a majority, these types of alliances have typically not been positive."

Yurij Rudensky, the redistricting counsel for the Brennan Center for Justice, says some Black Democrats are turning down overtures from Republicans to create more majority-minority districts during redistricting. He pointed to how Stacey Abrams rejected such a deal when she was a member of the Georgia House.

"It is important for Black communities, particularly in the St. Louis area, to receive effective representation," Rudensky says. "Whether or not Black lawmakers need to create a political alliance with Republicans in order to make that happen is a different question."

Smith says it's very possible for a Black candidate to win in a district that is less than 50% African American, with some exceptions in the Deep South. Bush herself won in 2020 thanks to strong support in white parts of the district and much-improved performance in largely Black areas compared to her unsuccessful 2018 bid against Clay. And on the other side of the state, African American Congressman Emanuel Cleaver represents a Kansas City-based district that is not majority Black.

Rep. Cori Bush, a Democrat from Missouri's 1st District, speaks during a news conference to discuss proposed housing legislation outside the U.S. Capitol on March 11 in Washington, D.C. Drew Angerer/Getty Images hide caption

Rep. Cori Bush, a Democrat from Missouri's 1st District, speaks during a news conference to discuss proposed housing legislation outside the U.S. Capitol on March 11 in Washington, D.C.

But even if the Voting Rights Act wasn't a factor, former state Sen. Scott Rupp, who chaired a Senate redistricting committee in 2011, says there's not much incentive for Republicans to accede to Democratic wishes to reduce the 1st District's Black population.

"The typical alignment of groups and typical political alliances, it all gets thrown out the window," Rupp says. "And it all comes down to each individual member of Congress' self-preservation."

Because the 2020 census showed that the 1st District lost tens of thousands of people, Missouri lawmakers will have to expand into largely white suburbs. That wouldn't make Bush vulnerable in a primary against a white opponent in a one-on-one matchup, but depending on how the lines are drawn, it could have long-term consequences for who gets elected if Bush should decide to leave office.

For her part, Bush says protections such as the Voting Rights Act "have been helpful to make sure there's representation on a federal level for this community which, we deserve to have that."

But Bush adds that she didn't want to get into the hypotheticals of "where I would like the lines of my district to be drawn, or any district for that matter."

"Voters should pick their representatives," Bush says.

I don't believe that [Republicans] are looking at fairness or equity and equality and inclusion as they're making these decisions. I would hope that they would fix that.

U.S. Rep Cori Bush, Democrat from Missouri

Still, Bush says she's wary about Missouri Republicans who are in charge of the redistricting process. Not only did she point to other states, like Texas, that have passed what she calls "unfathomable, extremist" election laws, but she also notes that Missouri Republicans refused to follow through with voter-approved Medicaid expansion until the Missouri Supreme Court forced their hand.

"I'm extremely concerned about the anti-democratic tendencies, and I'm calling them anti-democratic ... of the Missouri Republican Party," Bush says. "I don't believe that they're looking at fairness or equity and equality and inclusion as they're making these decisions. I would hope that they would fix that."

Bush says she's hoping that Missouri Republicans conduct a redistricting process in the coming weeks that is inclusive and takes into account the voices of Black, Latino and Asian Missourians.

"They have to feel that representation because they're seeing it change their lives," Bush says.

Continued here:
To Redistrict, Missouri's Black Democrats And White Republicans Join Together - NPR

Glenn Youngkin thought he was talking to two fellow Republicans at a campaign stop last June when he laid out what he really wanted to do about abortion. Convinced he was talking to anti-abortion voters, the Republican pick for Virginia governor started laying out ideas that he said he couldnt campaign on for fear of alienating independent voters.

As two anti-abortion voters at the event pressed him on why his campaign wasnt taking a stronger stance against abortion, Youngkin praised their ideas for anti-abortion measures like a heartbeat bill and defunding Planned Parenthood as on the right track.

Can we take it to the abortionists, though? an unidentified man asked Youngkin.

Yeah, Im gonna be really honest with you, the short answer is in this campaign, I cant, Youngkin said. When Im governor and I have a majority in the House, we can start going on offense.

But the man and Youngkins interlocutor werent really Republicans, a subterfuge that became clear a few weeks later when hidden camera footage of his remarks aired on MSNBC. Youngkins Democratic opponent, former Virginia governor Terry McAuliffe, quickly hammered Youngkin over the video, claiming his views on abortion were out of step with voters in the purple state.

The Youngkin video and many others like it was the creation of Democratic operative Lauren Windsor, who has emerged over the past year as a lurking menace to Republican officials who think theyre just chatting with their ideological compatriots. By posing at public events as fervent conservative activists, Windsor and her compatriots at her YouTube channel, The Undercurrent, have recorded a number of Republican politicians in unguarded moments.

Windsor has caught Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) admitting there was nothing obviously skewed about the 2020 election in his home state, and Republican state legislators in Texas conceding their voting bills were intended to cement Republican power.

Windsors videos represent a new use on the left of hidden-camera footage, long the domain of right-wing activists. Windsor stepped up her use of hidden cameras after a run-in with the rights most prominent undercover sting artist: James OKeefe.

In 2016, Windsor was an associate at Democratic consulting firm Democracy Partners when an operative working for OKeefe allegedly became an intern at the group by using a fake name and resume. Project Veritas Action, a sister wing of OKeefes main Project Veritas group, later released videos that claimed to portray Democracy Partners founder Robert Creamer and a contractor discussing unsavory or illegal campaign tactics. The videos scrambled Democracy Partners election efforts and prompted Creamer to step back from 2016 campaign work.

In response, Windsor launched Project Veritas Exposed, an online dossier with pictures of known OKeefe operatives and associates. Liberal groups, fearful that theyve been infiltrated by someone working for OKeefe, can scour the database and compare job applicants against pictures on the site.

She smiles and acts like a friend, and they blurt out all this bullshit to her."

Democratic consultant Mike Lux, a fellow Democracy Partners co-founder

In 2017, Creamer and Democracy Partners sued OKeefe and Project Veritas over the alleged infiltration. The case is set to go to trial this December. Windsor, now a partner at Democracy Partners, has herself been deposed in the case. In a video released by Project Veritas, defense lawyers asked her about Creamers 2006 conviction on bank and tax charges and an incident where Windsor confronted the OKeefe operative who allegedly infiltrated Democracy Partners.

While Windsor has operated The Undercurrent as an online video outlet since 2012, she decided to start using more undercover video last year because of the Republican embrace of the baseless idea that Joe Biden stole the election.

I think theres just been an unprecedented ongoing threat to our democracy that undercover work helps to expose real intentions and motivations that you wouldnt be able to otherwise capture, Windsor told The Daily Beast. I think that threat merits doing that methodology more frequently.

In December, Windsor scored one of her first major hidden-camera victories when she recorded then-Sen.-elect Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) suggesting that he would oppose certifying the presidential election results in the Senate. The video was one of the first indications of a legislative Republican groundswell against acknowledging Donald Trumps defeat that would ultimately culminate in the Jan. 6 riot.

She smiles and acts like a friend, and they blurt out all this bullshit to her, said Democratic consultant Mike Lux, another Democracy Partners co-founder.

While OKeefe and his own hidden-camera videos are the most obvious analogues to Windsors own undercover videos, Windsor and her allies insist theres no comparing Windsors methods with Project Veritas.

Windsor declined to discuss the technical details of how she produces her videos, including how many people work with her. But she insists that her own tactics posing as a Republican at public events arent akin to OKeefes efforts, which can involve constructing entire fake personas and, in the case of Democracy Partners, alleged fake names and resumes.

Windsor also dinged OKeefes operation for its sting on political staffers, including low-ranking ones, rather than focusing on politicians themselves.

Ive seen very few videos where hes actually talked to an elected [official] directly, Windsor said. He has to settle with catching a staffer.

In an interview with The Daily Beast, Creamer compared OKeefes alleged infiltration of Democratic groups using fake resumes and names to political spying operations like the Watergate bugging.

Shes not about infiltrating, shes not about spying, Creamer said. Shes about simply letting people tell you what they believe.

In a statement to The Daily Beast, Project Veritas disagreed.

Lauren Windsor has made her name by engaging in the very style of undercover journalism she decries as being a bridge too far when done by others, Project Veritas said in a statement. Unfortunately, those partisan patrons of Windsors undercover journalism are unable to objectively view and accept Windsors tactics for what they are, instead engaging in mental gymnastics to make her work palatable to their narrative.

Not all of Windsors activism takes place undercover. In July, Republican Reps. Matt Gaetz (FL) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA) attempted to hold a press conference casting imprisoned Jan. 6 riot suspects as political prisoners, but were stymied when a protester began blowing a whistle. As Gaetz and Greene attempted to flee the scene, Windsor added to the shambolic scene by repeatedly shouting at Gaetz, who is allegedly the subject of a federal investigation into whether he had sex with a teenager, to ask whether he was a pedophile.

My being there and asking him if he was a pedophile was to really key in on the ridiculousness of the situation in the first place, Windsor said.

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Meet the Democrats' Answer to James O'Keefe - The Daily Beast