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Do Utah Democrats send a candidate to Novembers ballot in the U.S. Senate race, which most likely extends the partys five-decade-long losing streak? Or, should they compromise their values to make an uneasy alliance with a conservative candidate in hopes of denying Sen. Mike Lee another term in Washington?

Its certainly not the most exciting Choose your own adventure book on the shelf, but its on the spring syllabus for Utahs Democrats.

Distilled to its essence, it is a choice between principles and practicality, and neither are particularly great choices for Utahs minority party.

Kael Weston is unopposed in the Democratic Party, so giving him the nomination should be nothing more than a formality. Traditionally, lone candidates are nominated by acclamation at the partys convention without the need for a formal vote by delegates.

Not this year, though.

A group of prominent Democrats, fronted by former Rep. Ben McAdams and Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson, say the party should withhold its nomination to increase the chances for independent Evan McMullin to defeat Lee.

Wilson admits its a gamble, but Democrats havent won a U.S. Senate election in Utah for 50 years, and she would like to try something different, even if it results in electing someone who is much farther to the right on the political spectrum.

Im well aware Evan McMullin would not be as good as a Democrat in terms of my values and what I believe. But I expect he would invite us into the room when hes making tough decisions. Thats not an opportunity Mike Lee is affording me right now, Wilson says.

Its a brutally pragmatic argument and one you dont often see in todays hyperpolarized political culture. Even if Democrats decide to kick party politics aside, there is no guarantee McMullin can beat Lee in November.

McAdams also says he would willingly trade McMullin for Lee, even if their politics rarely align.

Youll never have a candidate who agrees with you 100% of the time, and losing accomplishes nothing, McAdams says.

McAdams says he is on board with the plan because he believes Lee is an obstructionist who is unwilling to compromise.

Washington, D.C., is a dumpster fire. I personally know how broken and dysfunctional it is, and Mike Lee is the ringleader of that dysfunction. He cant even find his way to bipartisanship on things like roads and bridges, McAdams says. We have got to start sending people to Washington who are going to be constructive and work to fix whats broken.

But what of Weston? Doesnt he deserve the opportunity to represent the Democratic party? This clinical assessment of the race shoves him and his political ambitions aside.

Longtime Utah Democrat Quang Dang, who is helping Weston plot his political strategy, says the gambit put forward by McAdams and Wilson will do lasting damage to the party.

This whole plot to not have a Democratic candidate on the ballot is absurd. Never in the history of this party has this been done, Dang says. We have to deal with this gimmick, and gimmicks dont work in politics, especially Utah politics.

Weston is not a rookie candidate. He ran against Rep. Chris Stewart in 2020, losing to the Republican by 22 points in Utahs 2nd Congressional District.

Dang says Democrats who want to push Weston aside for McMullin are making many assumptions. First, Lee likely faces a primary against one or two other Republicans. Both Becky Edwards and Ally Isom are gathering signatures to avoid elimination at the GOP convention. Although Lee is the presumptive favorite, Dang says thats not a fait accompli, and the political winds could shift.

Politics is not sports betting. We ought to vote for the candidate that best represents our values and principles, not on who we think is most likely to win, Dang says.

The problem for Weston or any Democrat running statewide in Utah is simple math. You have to get more votes than your opponent.

Longtime political strategist Reed Galen says the numbers are more favorable for McMullin than Weston, but its still a long shot.

Are there enough Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents in Utah to beat Mike Lee? Are there enough Republican voters who dont like Mike Lee to cross over and vote for a Democrat? I think the answer to all of those questions is an unequivocal no, Galen says.

The former Republican and Park City resident helped form the Lincoln Project in 2020 as part of the effort to prevent Donald Trump from winning another term in the White House. He says Democrats are not known for looking at politics pragmatically.

They lead with their hearts a lot, not with their heads. When it comes to cold calculations, theyre not very good at it. For Democrats who dont like Mike Lee, there are only two choices in this race: Mike Lee or Evan McMullin, Galen says.

While this strategy is very rare, it is not unprecedented. In the 2014 Kansas U.S. Senate race, the Democratic nominee, Chad Taylor, dropped out to clear the way for independent businessman Greg Orman. According to Smart Politics, Orman lost by nearly 11 points to Pat Roberts, but the race was much closer than in the past as Republicans won the previous nine U.S. Senate races by an average of 37 points.

The United Utah Party has already thrown its weight behind McMullin, endorsing his candidacy against Lee.

How this plays out will depend on the whims of Democratic delegates who will be selected at the Democratic caucus meetings next week. All of this culminates at the state convention at the end of April.

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Utah Democrats face dilemma: help an independent to try to beat Sen. Mike Lee or stand with the party - Salt Lake Tribune

A New York State judge indicated on Thursday that he would allow this years midterm elections to proceed using the states newly drawn district lines that heavily favor Democrats rebuffing Republican requests to delay the election process while he considers whether the maps are an unconstitutional gerrymander.

In a preliminary hearing in Steuben County Supreme Court, Justice Patrick F. McAllister, a Republican, said that even if he ultimately ruled that the maps were unconstitutional, it was highly unlikely that replacements could be ratified in a timely manner ahead of primaries in June and Election Day in November. That, in turn, would risk leaving the state without proper representation in Congress.

I do not intend at this time to suspend the election process, the judge said. I believe the more prudent course would be to allow the current election process to proceed and then, if necessary, allow an election process next year if new maps need to be drawn.

Justice McAllisters conclusion delivered a sharp setback to state Republicans, who sued last month to try to stop the new congressional and State Senate lines drafted by the Democrat-controlled State Legislature from taking effect this year. The Republicans believe their party is well positioned to retake control of the House of Representatives in November, but every seat could count.

The fresh New York boundaries would make that harder, giving Democrats an advantage in 22 of the states 26 congressional districts, while potentially cutting the current number of Republican House members from New York in half and effectively eating into gains won by redistricting measures in other states. Analysts have suggested the new State Senate lines could be just as favorable to Democrats, helping the party maintain its supermajority in Albany.

Legal analysts who study redistricting said that Justice McAllister or an appeals court could still conceivably rethink his approach, but a court-ordered delay to this years elections was an increasingly unlikely scenario, now that candidates have begun collecting petitions to get on the June primary ballot.

If I were a candidate, I think the smart bet is that the maps we have today are the maps that are going to be used in November, said Michael Li, senior counsel for the Democracy Program at the Brennan Center for Justice. There doesnt seem to be the will to change them for this cycle.

Still, Republicans left the hearing room in Bath, N.Y., on Thursday with some reasons for optimism.

Justice McAllister rejected motions to dismiss the case and indicated that he was open to arguments that the maps had violated language added to the New York Constitution in 2014 that barred mapmakers from drawing lines to benefit one political party or candidate.

The judge also ordered Democrats to hand over a raft of documents by March 12 that might shed light on how the Democratic drafters settled on the lines, and he told both sides to appear a few days later to argue over the merits of the Republicans challenge.

The important thing here is that the court rejected all of the efforts by the State Legislature and the attorney general to dismiss the case, said John J. Faso, a former congressman from New York who is serving as a spokesman for the Republican challengers a group of New York residents backed by deep-pocketed national Republican groups.

What is redistricting? Its the redrawing of the boundariesof congressional and state legislative districts. It happens every 10 years, after the census, to reflect changes in population.

How does it work? The census dictates how many seats in Congress each state will get. Mapmakers then work to ensure that a states districts all have roughly the same number of residents, to ensure equal representation in the House.

Who draws the new maps? Each state has its own process. Eleven states leave the mapmaking to an outside panel. But most 39 states have state lawmakers draw the new maps for Congress.

If state legislators can draw their own districts, wont they be biased? Yes. Partisan mapmakers often move district lines subtly or egregiously to cluster voters ina way that advances a political goal. This is called gerrymandering.

Is gerrymandering legal? Yes and no. In 2019, the Supreme Court ruled that the federal courts have no role to play in blocking partisan gerrymanders. However, the court left intact parts of the Voting Rights Act that prohibit racial or ethnic gerrymandering.

Mr. Faso said that the Republican lawyers would continue to argue that there was enough time to draw new maps for use in this years elections. You cant really allow an election to take place if the lines are declared unconstitutional, and there is time for a remedy, he said.

Democratic leaders have not disputed that the maps may produce gains for their party. But they say that those gains would result not from their mapmakers partisan motives but from the realities of population shifts that have made an already blue state much bluer since the last redistricting cycle in 2012.

Redistricting experts have called New Yorks new maps a political gerrymander. But proving that beyond a reasonable doubt in court, where judges tend to show deference to lawmakers, may be difficult. Justice McAllister called it a high bar on Thursday.

If the maps are tossed out, New Yorkers could be asked to vote in three consecutive years for House members and state senators in regularly scheduled elections in 2022 and 2024, as well as a special election in 2023.

Lawyers for the Democrats vowed to immediately appeal the judges order to hand over documents quickly, which could further complicate the proceeding. Under special rules used to speed up the case, Justice McAllister must render a verdict by April 4.

Luis Ferr-Sadurn contributed reporting.

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Democrats Win Early Victory in Court Fight Over District Maps - The New York Times

Republicans are ready to surf the red wave to control of Congress and state legislatures this November in what is looking like a particularly nasty midterm election cycle for Democrats.

"As the historic 2022 Red Wave builds and more Democrats run for the hills, I will continue to support strong, American First candidates as we work to Fire Nancy Pelosi once and for all and SAVE AMERICA!" Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, the chairwoman of the House Republican Conference, said in a statement announcing a $10 million fundraising haul at the beginning of the year.

"With Biden underwater, a red wave is coming," Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel predicted in an op-ed. "As we look ahead to the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats have every reason to worry."

That's what you might expect two leading Republicans to say in their capacity as spokeswomen for the party in an election year. But nonpartisan prognosticators at National Journal forecast a "red wave" for Senate Democrats that could wash away a favorable map and the possibility of GOP primaries producing extreme challengers, submerging their narrow majority.

Republicans have history on their side this year. Between 1862 and 2014, the party holding the White House has managed to avoid losing House seats in the midterm elections just four times, according to an analysis by the Brookings Institution. The party in power has fared better in the Senate but has still lost seats two dozen times during that time period. Since 1938, the president's party has lost House seats in every midterm election but two 1998, when Republicans waged an unpopular impeachment gambit against Democratic President Bill Clinton, and 2002, when the 9/11 terrorist attacks galvanized the nation behind Republican President George W. Bush.

That's it. The rest of this history looks pretty ugly for the party of the president. Democrats lost 72 House seats under Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1938, then 44 in 1942, followed by a loss of 55 in 1946. Democrats shed 48 House seats in the 1966 midterm elections under Lyndon B. Johnson, while Republicans lost 48 in 1974 after Richard Nixon's resignation in the Watergate scandal.

In 1994, the first midterm election of Clinton's presidency, Republicans picked up 54 House seats for their first majority in that chamber in 40 years. Thirty-four incumbents were unseated, all Democrats, including the sitting speaker of the House for the first time since 1863, the chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, and the 42-year incumbent who led the House Judiciary Committee. Democrats also lost control of the Senate with the defeat of two incumbents and a Republican sweep of six open seats.

Bush avoided the midterm curse in 2002 but was unsuccessful four years later. In the 2006 midterm elections, Democrats gained 31 seats, giving Nancy Pelosi the speaker's gavel for the first time. Democrats similarly gained five seats in the Senate. Republicans added 63 House seats in Barack Obama's first midterm election in 2010 and then captured the Senate in his second one in 2014, with a net gain of nine seats. Pelosi's second stint as speaker began after Democrats gained 41 House seats under Donald Trump.

Bush called it a "thumpin'," Obama a "shellacking." Clinton had to assure reporters that the Constitution still made him relevant. Presidents have trouble holding Congress for their party, especially when they're unpopular.

And Biden is unpopular: An ABC News/Washington Post poll found more strongly disapproved of his performance (44%) than approved to any degree (37%). His overall disapproval rating stood at 55%.

Predictably, Republicans led the generic congressional ballot by 49% to 42%. When asked about the GOP acting as a check against Biden, this rose to 50% to 40%, a 10-point Republican advantage.

Democrats have two remaining hopes. The first is that Republicans fail to capitalize on a highly favorable environment because their divisions and primary results favor less electable candidates. This kept the GOP from controlling the Senate until midway through Obama's second term. The other is that the election is still months away, and the pandemic, inflation, and Russia-Ukraine could all look better by November.

But with each new crisis, the public perception of Biden as a competent leader fades. The longer those attitudes persist, the more difficult they are to change.

Moreover, Republicans don't really need a red wave. The Senate is split 50-50. The Democratic edge in the House is five seats. A trickle could cost them their majorities. No wonder Republicans think the water's just fine.

Original Location: Democrats wave their majorities goodbye

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Democrats wave their majorities goodbye | US & World | denvergazette.com - The Denver Gazette

It hasnt aired yet, but I want to share with you the political ad that could win the 2022 midterm elections for the Democrats even with all the doom and gloom about President Bidens approval rating and all the historical trends that favor the GOP. For reasons that will be clear in a minute, Im not using the candidates name.

The TV spot starts with one of the most dramatic and best-known soundbites in American history: the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. at the Lincoln Memorial in 1963, proclaiming, I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character. The ad then switches to the candidate, dressed smartly but casually not in a fleece vest, though! and sitting in front of a blackboard in a school classroom. He looks into the camera.

I want an America where every child learns those words and what they mean, the candidate says. Thats why I was shocked when my opponent and other Republicans in our state voted for a bill that would keep American heroes like Martin Luther King [picture of King on the Selma-to-Montgomery march] and Rosa Parks [shot of Parks, sitting on a city bus] out of our schoolhouses. Im sick and tired of the politicians trying to ban books from our libraries and gag our teachers in their classrooms. Thats not just wrong its straight-up un-American.

Then, a tone shift as images from the war in Ukraine, including everyday citizens defending their homeland against Russian invaders, fill the screen. We are all inspired by people around the globe, fighting for their freedom. Its time we fight for democracy here in the United States. I want to make it easier for you to vote, not harder. Lets make our schools about learning, not censorship. The music begins to swell, with emotional frames of voters, kids in classrooms. Im running for Congress to fight to protect the American way.

Theres a reason you havent seen this TV spot yet, even if youre a political obsessive like me. It hasnt been filmed, and given the tortured history of Democratic Party political thinking and strategy over the last 40 years it might never be. I made it up, because I think the political party that for all its well-documented flaws wants to take the United States forward instead of backward into some Stone Age of white supremacy is missing a golden opportunity to push a message that connects with a majority of Americans.

We all know the conventional wisdom about what is certain to happen when the nation votes in November. The historical precedent is that the party holding the White House gets clobbered, as happened to Donald Trump in 2018 and Barack Obama in 2010 a notion now cemented by President Bidens low approval rating and voter unease over high levels of inflation. Yet often the lofty conventional wisdom fails to notice changes at ground level.

The post-2020 Census reapportionment process that was supposed to give an added edge to Republicans didnt actually do that. More important, the current political zeitgeist is radically different than it was during 2021s off-year elections in Virginia, Florida, and other states. For one thing, the news is dominated by shock and outrage over Vladimir Putins barbaric invasion of Ukraine a constant reminder of Donald Trump and other top Republicans who spent years as Putin apologists, or worse, as well as the risks of authoritarianism over democracy. But perhaps more important, Republicans who saw some gains last year running against education that addresses racism or LGBTQ rights now seem guilty of a major overreach.

The extent of that GOP overreach can be seen both in the sheer number of bills that Republicans are introducing in statehouses across America so-called gag orders about what teachers can say in their classrooms at a rate of roughly three a day, according to PEN America, as well as outrageous local examples, like the Tennessee school board that pulled the anti-Holocaust graphic novel Maus out of the curriculum. Now, there is polling evidence that most Americans dont like what they are seeing.

Last month, a CBS News poll found resounding majorities of voters oppose any kind of book bans for example, 83% say that books should never be banned for criticizing U.S. history and also support classroom teaching about racism or other historical topics, even those with the potential to make some students uncomfortable. Basically, the CBS News respondents acknowledged that America has made some progress on racial issues but also believe that racism persists and that these issues should be discussed in classrooms. Thats very much the opposite of what TV pundits are saying, as well as the trend of GOP governing in the nations red states.

There is a tendency, or course, to write off polling data on sensitive topics around race. Arent there some voters who say one thing to a pollster and behave differently in the voting booth? But lets look at the politician who in 2021 became the avatar of the fight over antiracism education, Virginias new Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin. Taking office in January, Youngkin surprised voters with some of his extreme actions, which including a Day One executive order aimed at eliminating divisive concepts from classrooms, and even a tip line for parents to report on their kids teachers. The result? After little more than a month in office, Youngkin is already under water, with just 41% of Virginians approving of his performance and 43% disapproving.

READ MORE: War in Ukraine demands that all of us pick a side: democracy or decadence | Will Bunch

Clearly, theres an opportunity here for Democrats. The partys inclination in recent times is to go after voters with a rational appeal rather than an emotional one. In 2022, Democrats conundrum is that despite a slew of positive data around job creation and the broad economy, most voters say they arent feeling it, and theyre concerned about inflation and high gas prices. In todays climate, the best pitch for Democrats is an emotional one that the Republicans are the party of banning books and gagging teachers. Could anything be more against American values, the ones our grandfathers fought for in World War II?

Theres already evidence, unfortunately, that this will be a road not taken by the Democrats. Consider Bidens approach in his nationally televised State of the Union address Tuesday. Although the speech had its positive moments spotlighting Bidens role in building a global alliance against Putin was a no-brainer it was also marked by missed opportunities. For one thing, in trying to pivot to a bipartisan center, Biden offered next to nothing for the under-30 and nonwhite voters who put him over the top in 2020. But also, the presidents unity message failed to link the issue thats suddenly on the minds of most voters the battle for liberty in Ukraine with the fight to preserve democratic values here at home.

It was also striking, in fact, that Biden made no mention of the traumatic moment in American history the Jan. 6 insurrection on Capitol Hill, with new evidence every day that this was a coup attempt that happened just 14 months ago. That plot was orchestrated by a sitting Republican president to thwart the peaceful transfer of power after losing an election. The new bipartisan vibe apparently requires tossing Jan. 6 down a memory hole, but that might not be the wise strategy for winning the next election. It may be smarter to tap into the outrage over a party that tried to overturn an election, played footsie with a Russian dictator, and believes it has a mandate for a new McCarthyism.

The so-called Reagan revolution that created a cloud of self-doubt over the Democratic Party was nearly two generations ago. Yet party messaging largely remains dominated by reaction and fear rather than boldness. Those fears seem rooted in a panic that progressive values will be seen as less American when the reality is that ideas like academic freedom, preventing censorship, and a belief in inquiry, including science, are the core beliefs of this nation. Its past time for President Biden and other leaders of the Democratic Party to approve this message.

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Heres the message that wins the midterms for Democrats, if theyre not afraid | Will Bunch - The Philadelphia Inquirer

Americans tuning in to President Bidens State of the Union address on Tuesday could be forgiven for thinking that Democrats have decisively won the cultural war over abortion rights. In a speech that clocked in at just over an hour, Biden studiously avoided using the word abortion a single time. His only reference to abortion rights came in passing.

The constitutional right affirmed by Roe v. Wade, standing precedent for half a century, is under attack as never before, Biden said. If we want to go forward, not backward, we must protect access to health care. Preserve a womans right to choose.

What constitutional right affirmed by Roe v. Wade? A womans right to choose what? In too many situations, the right to choose has become a phrase without an ending the final, crucial word omitted to satisfy political strategists who believe the Republican myth that even uttering the word abortion will spell electoral doom.

The State of the Union was Bidens biggest opportunity to reset that received wisdom and rally the Democratic base by condemning fully and clearly the GOPs scorched-earth war on women.

The situation is acute. On one side, the Supreme Court is likely to hand down a decision on Texass restrictive new abortion law later this year that legal experts argue would effectively end abortion rights as we know them. On the other, Senate Democrats fell short this week in their effort to codify abortion protections into law. There has never been a more urgent time to mobilize the nearly 60 percent of Americans and one third of Republicans who support legal abortion.

Republicans have good reason to try and dissuade Democrats from making abortion a major issue in the upcoming midterm elections: a Hart Research survey of Americans in 11 states found that when elections focus on abortion, voters support Democrats over Republicans by 71 points. And in the suburbs that decided the 2016 and 2020 presidential contests, voters are deeply wary of an America without Roe v. Wade. If Republicans lose those suburban voters because they chose to burn down abortion rights, their electoral victory path practically disappears.

We need to stop equating peoples discomfort with talking about sex, sexuality, gender identity, abortion all of these things pregnancy, with the political opinions or where the country is at, We Testify Executive Director Renee Bracey Sherman told TIMEs Abigail Abrams. Bracey Sherman is right; for all the GOPs doomsaying about the political suicide of mentioning abortion, the Republican position is out of step with the majority of the nation and even with a growing number of self-identified conservatives. Theres a reason House Republican hopefuls have been eager to talk about anything but abortion.

For every other issue, he painted a picture of what hell do to rebuild America, from electric-car charging stations and high-speed internet, BraceySherman said of Biden. But he refuses to build back better for abortion.

Biden and Democrats shouldnt relegate the historic fight over abortion rights to an afterthought. It should instead be the centerpiece of an ambitious Democratic effort to build a new political coalition that realigns suburbs out of the GOPs orbit. For a party badly in need of unity after a year that saw surprisingly public displays of intra-party hostility, making the midterms a referendum on abortion offers a path forward that energizes base voters and party activists across racial, ethnic, age and class lines. In addition to being the morally right thing to do, shaking up the electoral map is smart politics and one of the few ways Democrats can hope to escape a bludgeoning in November.

Its clear from Bidens remarks that he understands Roe is under direct assault, and any Democratic approach must be about more than just politics. Around the nation, but especially in Texas, women are facing an unprecedented stripping of their fundamental legal rights. They pleaded to their elected officials, but to no avail. They took their case all the way to a Supreme Court that took the extraordinarily unusual step of allowing Texass draconian law to remain in effect while the court considered the case.

Democrats should not be ashamed to make abortion a major issue. For millions of women across the country, it is the major issue. An unexpected or unwanted pregnancy in a post-Roe America will determinemany other factors in their lives. Its time Democrats found their voice and unified once again to protect abortion rights in America.

MaxBurnsis a Democratic strategist and founder of Third Degree Strategies, a progressive communications firm. Follow him on Twitter @themaxburns.

Continued here:
Democrats must find their voice on abortion rights | TheHill - The Hill