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Democrats running to replace the late U.S. Rep. Ron Wright, R-Arlington, believe they can flip the seat in an unpredictable off-year special election. But Democrats at large are not as sure or willing to say it out loud.

That is becoming clear as campaigning ramps up for the May 1 contest, when 23 candidates including 11 Republicans and 10 Democrats will be on the ballot in Texas 6th Congressional District. With so many contenders, the race is likely to go to a mid-summer runoff, and Democrats involved hope they can secure a second-round spot on their way to turning the district blue.

While Democrats have cause for optimism the district has rapidly trended blue in recent presidential election results some are urging caution. They are mindful of a few factors, not the least of which is a 2020 election cycle in which high Democratic expectations culminated in deep disappointment throughout the ballot.

Were not counting our chickens before they hatch and were gonna work to earn every vote, said Abhi Rahman, a Texas Democratic strategist who previously worked for the state party. This is not a bellwether. This is the first of many battles that will eventually lead to Texas turning blue.

With just under a month until early voting begins, national Democrats are showing few outward signs that they are ready to engage in the race, even as candidates and their supporters press the case that the district is flippable. They point out that Trump carried the district by only 3 percentage points in November after winning it by 12 points in 2016. Mitt Romney carried the district by 17 points in 2012.

It absolutely is a competitive race, said Stephen Daniel, the 2020 Democratic nominee for the seat, who opted against running in the special election. He added he thinks that national Democrats need to get involved because I think the more resources you have to get out there and help you reach these voters can only help.

On the flip side, Wright, who died in February weeks after testing positive for the coronavirus, won the seat when it was open in 2018 by 8 points and by 9 points in 2020. Both times the seat was a target of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, though the designation came late in the cycle and the group did not spend significant money in either election.

And while Trump carried the district by only 3 points in November, every other statewide Republican candidate, including U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, won it by more comfortable margins ranging from 6 to 8 points.

Whether to engage could be an especially difficult decision for the DCCC, which made a show of going on offense in Texas last cycle, opening an office in Austin early on and building a target list that grew to include 10 Republican-held districts, including Wrights. They ended up flipping none of them.

Asked for comment for this story, a DCCC spokesperson pointed to comments that the committees chairman, Sean Patrick Maloney, made to The Washington Post in mid-February. Asked if the DCCC would compete in the special election, Maloney said the committee was looking at it but that Democratic members were currently focused on helping constituents recover from the deadly winter storm that had just battered the state at the time.

Democrats make up 10 candidates in the 23-way race. The more prominent Democratic candidates include Jana Lynne Sanchez, the partys 2018 nominee for the seat; Lydia Bean, the Democratic challenger last year to state Rep. Matt Krause, R-Fort Worth; and Shawn Lassiter, an education nonprofit leader from Fort Worth.

EMILYs List, the powerful national group that works to elect Democratic women who support abortion rights, is in touch with the Democratic women running in the special election and watching the race closely but currently has no plans to endorse, spokesperson Kristen Hernandez said. The organization backed Sanchez when she was the nominee in 2018 but is often more cautious about taking sides when multiple Democratic women are running in a primary or special election.

It is still somewhat early relative to the special election timeline the filing deadline was March 3 but at least two Republican contenders are already running TV ads, and some Democrats worry they could get locked out of the runoff if the national party does not start paying closer attention.

Lassiter, in a statement for this story, said Democrats cannot sit on the sidelines and watch the failed leadership of the Republicans be a disservice to our communities.

Texas' 6th is eager to elect someone who represents our growing diversity and who has the political courage to serve the people, Lassiter said. With the right candidate and with Democratic investment, we can flip this district and win.

Lassiter is one of at least two Black Democrats running, one other being Mansfield pastor Patrick Moses. Twenty-seven percent of 2020 Democratic primary voters in the district were African American, according to the Lassiter campaign's analysis. Thirty-three percent were Black in the lower-turnout 2018 primary.

Lassiter is not the only candidate contemplating a potential all-GOP runoff. A recent polling memo provided to another Democratic campaign warned that a Democratic lockout is a real danger.

Kelly Blackburn, chairwoman of the Ellis County Democratic Party, said she thinks some people will start coalescing toward or one or two [Democratic candidates] by April, but well see. As for investment in the race by national Democrats, she said she would welcome it, and Im sure the candidates would as well.

If we really wanna fight for it, I think we need more money and big money, Blackburn said.

The Republican side is headlined by veteran GOP activist Susan Wright, Ron Wrights widow. Some of her most serious-looking GOP competitors include state Rep. Jake Ellzey of Waxahachie and Brian Harrison, the former chief of staff at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services under President Donald Trump; and Sery Kim, another former Trump administration official. One wild card is Dan Rodimer, the former professional wrestler who ran for Congress last year in Nevada and scrambled to file last-minute for the Texas special election.

Some of the Democrats are already finding convenient foils in the GOP field. Bean has repeatedly called out Rodimer on social media and sent fundraising emails targeting Harrison at length, deriding him as Bootlicker Brian. (He has taken encouragement from the attacks.)

For now, though, the Democrats may have to focus on differences among themselves if they want to advance to an anticipated runoff against a Republican.

During one of their first major forums last week, the Democratic field was largely harmonious. Sanchez and Bean leaned heavily on their previous campaign experience to argue they were best positioned to turn out Democrats for the special election. Sanchez also brought up a sore subject for Democrats last election cycle.

I think we saw from 2020, where down-ballot was extremely disappointing, despite all of our efforts, that what was missing was the door-knocking, and you cant substitute TV for door-knocking so its very important to me that we continue that, Sanchez said, adding that she had already hired two field staffers and her campaign is going to be door-knocking every day and I will be out there as well.

You may remember that just four months ago, I ran for the Texas House here in Tarrant County and we had one of the strongest field programs in the whole state of Texas, said Bean, who also touts that she raised over $1 million in her November challenge to Krause, who won by 9 points.

Bean got one of the first major endorsements among Democratic candidates last week, unveiling the support of the Tarrant County AFL-CIO. Sanchez, meanwhile, launched with $100,000 raised and a list of 10 endorsements from across the district, and she has led the Democratic field in the two private surveys of the race that have surfaced so far, though large shares of respondents were undecided in each.

National Republicans are dismissive of Democratic ambitions in the district. In a statement for this story, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, Torunn Sinclair, said Democrats should be talking less about their laughable prospects in Texas 6th Congressional District and spending more time fixing the border crisis theyve created.

Still, some of the GOP candidates are not discounting how competitive it could be for Democrats, if only because it reinforces their campaign strategies. After Ellzey launched his campaign, he emailed supporters that he was running because he heard from people in the district that they dont want liberals taking away our voice in Congress.

I think the Democrats could flip this seat, Harrison said in an interview, putting an emphasis on could.

Theyre gonna throw everything at it, and thats why the Republicans absolutely have to rally for the strongest possible candidate in the field, Harrison added, pitching himself as the only contender with deep roots in the district, small-business experience here and a track record of going to Washington and making change.

Originally posted here:
Democrats have mixed outlooks for Texas Congressional District 6 election - The Texas Tribune

Florida Republicans bested Democrats in the blocking and tackling of running campaigns last year, leading to victories up and down the ballot for the GOP. Now the states top Democrat is bringing in outside help to prevent a repeat in 2022.

Florida Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried and the National Democratic Training Committee are announcing a new initiative to train local county Democratic leaders in organization and strategizing. The goal is to strengthen the Democrats closest to the voters and activists on the ground.

Organizing has historically been the Democratic Partys strong suit and after Floridas 2020 election results, its clear that an initiative to strengthen party efforts from the ground up, prioritizing the local level, will be crucial for future success, Fried, the states only statewide Democrat, said in a statement.

The training will take place over four sessions that will begin in April.

This series is the latest effort by Fried to help the party rebuild from the ground up. Fried recently announced the hiring of Abigayil Yisrael as engagement and outreach director for her political committee. Yisrael is coming off the successful campaign of Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, in which Democrats flipped the southern state blue to take control of the Senate.

This refocus on the ground will be a familiar tune to local county parties, who for years have heard such promises from state Democratic Party leaders only to watch them abandon those efforts as elections approach.

After widespread losses in 2018, Florida Democrats spent months assessing what went wrong and concluded that they needed to give more resources to local Democratic parties and engage with their activists all year, not just election season.

By the time the 2020 election rolled around, there was a steady drumbeat of angst and frustration from local Democratic leaders, who said they were being stepped on by national Democrats. Many sounded the alarm that Joe Bidens campaign wasnt doing enough to engage with Black and Latino Floridians and that these outside strategists didnt understand the intricacies of operating in such a large, diverse state.

The National Democratic Training Committee partners with labor unions, trade groups, state parties and progressive organizations. Its Florida series will focus on training local precinct committee people, membership recruitment and building a successful organization.

When our local party infrastructure is organized, we get more people involved, recruit more candidates and ultimately win more races. We are thrilled to be teaming up with Commissioner Fried to train Democratic leaders across the state, said Kelly Dietrich, founder and CEO of the National Democratic Training Committee.

More here:
Florida Democrats lost the ground game in 2020. Training is on the way. - Tampa Bay Times

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks at a press conference in Los Angeles, Calif. | Mario Tama/Getty Images

SACRAMENTO Gov. Gavin Newsom's camp has one message for Democrats considering a California recall bid: Don't even think about it.

The mere hint of a candidacy draws immediate condemnation from Newsom attack dog Sean Clegg, while other Newsom surrogates are making clear publicly and privately that any Democratic challenger will become persona non grata in the party.

Minutes after POLITICO reported Tuesday that former Democratic presidential candidate Tom Steyer was surveying voters on his recall chances, Clegg tweeted that Steyer doesnt want to be the cynical, vulture-investing billionaire who bet against Democratic unity so Trump Republicans can take CA."

After former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa called for California schools to reopen immediately amid talk of a potential candidacy, Clegg last week fired off a clear rebuke: My old friend Antonio will embarrass himself and forever poison his legacy if he runs, he wrote.

Thats how you lose," Clegg, a strategist for Newsom, said in an interview. We need to hold our base."

It is all but certain that California will have its second gubernatorial recall ever, likely this fall, based on an official state signature tally released last week. The state's unique recall system lends itself to a delicate intraparty dance. California asks two questions: first, do you want to recall Newsom, and second, who should replace him if the recall is successful? The rules don't allow Newsom to appear on that replacement list of contenders who would take his job.

As the prospect of a Villaraigosa candidacy gained steam in recent weeks, other Newsom allies tried to blunt that momentum. Former Assembly Speaker Fabian Nez declined to share his private conversations with Villaraigosa and stressed that he does not speak for the former mayor, but Nez predicted that at the end of the day, all of the Democratic establishment and Democratic activists are going to be on the side of Gov. Gavin Newsom.

We cant make the same mistake twice, Nez said, invoking the ill-fated entry of Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante in the 2003 recall won by Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger. I dont see Democrats repeating that exercise again.

If Democrats play their cards wrong and Newsom is recalled without a leading Democrat on the ballot as an option, a high-name ID Republican could take the top job with a quarter of the vote in one of the nations bluest states.

The only time I worry about a Republican [not] winning this seat is if one credible Democrat gets in, said Anne Dunsmore, who runs one of the recall committees that are on the verge of qualifying the election.

One Democratic lawmaker said this week that California's two-question approach needs an overhaul. "The crazy thing about our system is that many more people can vote to keep the incumbent in office than the person who ends up replacing the incumbent," said Sen. Ben Allen (D-Santa Monica).

The topic of a Democrat potentially getting into the race is the prevailing obsession among elected officials, donors and political consultants in California. There are two schools of thought. In one view, not running a backup candidate would be an unforgivable oversight that could allow a Republican to waltz into office with a plurality of the vote. In the other, a Democrats entry would signal weakness and disunity when Newsom needs his allies more than ever potentially ensuring the second question is necessary.

The dance around the recall forces California Democrats to balance two elemental political motivations: self-preservation and opportunism. Any ambitious Democrat who runs and fails would topple off the career ladder into political oblivion. No one has forgotten the implosion of Bustamante after he jumped into the 2003 race. But the recall also offers a tantalizing chance to leapfrog into the governors office.

For now, Democrats have projected unity behind Newsom. At event after event, Democrats seen as potential contenders have pledged their fealty to the governor and lambasted the recall as a partisan distraction.

The governors team has also sought to squelch a challenge from the left, reaching out to progressive California Democrat Rep. Ro Khanna to enlist the support of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and rolling out an endorsement from Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). They're trying to signal that Newsom may have sometimes fallen short, but he is far superior to a Republican.

I made the case [to Sanders] that he really needed to weigh in, that this is a Republican attempt to take over California, Khanna said in an interview. I understand there may be some progressive disappointment in [progressive] goals not being achieved yet, such as single-payer, but this is the time we really need to unify against the recall.

Newsom remains in a relatively strong position, with an approval rating hovering around 50 percent far better than Gov. Gray Davis had before he was ousted by voters. Democrats contemplating a run are likely to wait and see where Newsom stands closer to a likely fall candidate filing deadline.

If Im wondering, Am I going to go sailing in 90 days? Im going to wait 89 days and see what the weather is, said Rob Stutzman, a Republican political consultant who worked for Schwarzenegger.

If Newsom cant muster a majority to fend off being recalled, a Democrat would enjoy powerful advantages on the second question of whom to replace the governor. California remains an overwhelmingly Democratic state.

The larger risk-benefit calculus could favor the entry of a Democrat who doesnt currently hold public office and thus has less to lose. Political observers are closely watching Villaraigosa, who lost to Newsom in the 2018 gubernatorial primary. Villaraigosa, a public affairs partner at Mercury, has name recognition and could activate a political support network in Los Angeles, a power base that would counterbalance Newsoms Bay Area roots.

The former mayor has been coy about his intentions, criticizing the recall without explicitly ruling out a run. But he has been an outspoken critic of continued school closures, a major liability for Newsom. Education policy was a dividing line in the 2018 primary, with charter allies spending millions to boost Villaraigosa and unions rallying to Newsoms defense.

Steyer also looms. The Democratic former presidential candidate has a long history of wading into California politics, no office to lose but considerable personal wealth to fund a campaign.

And there's always a nuclear option.

If polls suggest Newsom is in serious trouble as the recall draws closer, the governor could resign from office. That would allow Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis to take over the job and short-circuit the recall tied to Newsom while undoubtedly raising the hackles of Republicans.

"In September, he could be doing great and well proceed," said Democratic political strategist Christine Pelosi, daughter of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. "But if hes really underwater, it may be that no Democrat could win. Then, he should step down as governor and Eleni Kounalakis should be the governor, and they should cancel the election. In that case, the Democratic Party would retain the governorship."

View original post here:
Newsom swats away Democratic challengers. Will his party live to regret it? - POLITICO

Congressional Democrats are introducing legislation to transfer $1bn in funding from a controversial new intercontinental ballistic missile to the development of a universal Covid vaccine.

The Investing in Cures Before Missiles (ICBM) Act, introduced in the House and Senate on Friday, would stop funding on the proposed new missile, known as the ground-based strategic deterrent (GBSD) which is projected to cost a total of $264bn over its projected lifespan, and discontinue spending on a linked warhead modification program.

Instead, the life of the existing US intercontinental ballistic missile, the Minuteman III, would be extended until 2050, and an independent study commissioned on how best to do that.

The United States should invest in a vaccine of mass prevention before another new land-based weapon of mass destruction, Senator Edward Markey of Massachusetts, co-author of the bill, said.

The ICBM Act makes clear that we can begin to phase out the cold-war nuclear posture that risks accidental nuclear war while still deterring adversaries and assuring allies, and redirect those savings to the clear and present dangers presented by coronaviruses and other emerging and infectious diseases.

Arms control experts say static intercontinental ballistic missiles, of which the US has 400 in silos across the northern midwest, are inherently destabilizing and dangerous, because a president would have just a few minutes to launch them on the basis of early warning signals of an impending enemy attack, or risk losing them to a pre-emptive strike. They point to a history of near-launches based on defective data, and the risk of cyber-attacks distorting early warning systems.

With all of the global challenges we face, the last thing we should be doing is giving billions to defense contractors to build missiles we dont need to keep as a strong nuclear deterrence, Ro Khanna, Democratic congressman from California and the bills co-author in the House, said.

In September 2020, Northrop Grumman was awarded an uncontested bid for the $13.3bn engineering, manufacturing and development phase of GBSD, after its only rival for the vast contract, Boeing, pulled out of the race complaining of a rigged competition.

The Biden administrations intentions on the GBSDs future are unclear, but an early signal may come in its first defence budget expected in the next few weeks.

The new ICBM bill would transfer of $1bn in funding for the GBSD to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (Niaid) for development work on a universal coronavirus vaccine. It would also divert money from the program to modify the W87-1 nuclear warhead to fit the GBSD, and dedicate it to research and preparations to combat future bio-threats. And it would launch an independent study to explore viable technical solutions to extend the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile to 2050.

When Khanna tried to introduce a similar bill last July it was killed in the House armed services committee by a decisive bipartisan vote of 44-12. A proposed Minuteman extension study was also voted down.

Rarely is a congressional study controversial. This just shows how afraid Northrop Grumman is about the results of the independent study, Khanna told the Guardian. They lobbied to kill a simple study, to see if the Minuteman III could be extended.

The congressman said he was optimistic the new administration would support the bill.

This will remain an uphill battle. Northrop Grumman is lobbying hard against this bill, Khanna said. Given we have Democratic majorities in both chambers and a Democrat in the White House, we think our chances are better, particularly by putting pressure on the administration to pause GBSD and consider extending Minuteman III.

Jessica Sleight, the program director at Global Zero, a disarmament advocacy group, said: The US nuclear arsenal far exceeds any plausible mission requirements put forth by the Pentagon. Even in the best of times, $264bn for new nuclear missiles is money we cant spare for weapons we dont need. In the middle of a devastating pandemic, its irresponsible.

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Democrats call for $1bn shift from weapons of mass destruction to 'vaccine of mass prevention' - The Guardian

Crime tape surrounds a King Soopers grocery store on March 24 in Boulder, Colo where ten people were killed in a shooting on Monday. State Democrats now say they will consider a statewide assault weapons ban. Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images hide caption

Crime tape surrounds a King Soopers grocery store on March 24 in Boulder, Colo where ten people were killed in a shooting on Monday. State Democrats now say they will consider a statewide assault weapons ban.

Colorado could be the next state to consider a ban on "assault-style" weapons, Colorado Public Radio has learned, although discussions are still in the preliminary stages at the state capitol and no legislation has been introduced yet.

Ten people were killed in Monday's mass shooting at a King Soopers grocery store in Boulder and state lawmakers are grappling with what else could be done to prevent these types of shootings from happening. In Colorado, Democrats control the legislative and executive branches of the state government.

"I'm devastated," says Democratic Senate Majority Leader Steve Fenberg. He was born and raised in Boulder and represents the state Senate district where the shooting occurred.

"This is my grocery store. This is blocks from where my wife teaches middle school and her students go on their lunch break," says Fenberg. "It is my job to solve solutions through policy. And that's why it's not too soon. It's frankly too late, especially for these 10 innocent lives."

Fenberg and other Democratic state leaders say they are eager for a federal assault weapons ban. Even though President Biden called for that on Tuesday, Fenberg isn't optimistic Congress will act. The U.S. Senate is currently considering two less sweeping measures.

"There's no question that the real solution has to come from the federal government. A patchwork of laws is better than nothing, but clearly, if someone is intent on causing harm and we have strict regulations in Colorado, somebody can drive an hour and a half to Wyoming," says Fenberg. "The point is to not end gun violence tomorrow, but to prevent some of these tragedies from happening and making it so we can go longer than a week before the next tragedy."

Gun laws Colorado has passed so far

Colorado has already passed several gun laws within the last decade: a high-capacity magazine ban, universal background checks and a so-called "red flag" gun law. Opponents of stricter laws say those measures infringe on Second Amendment rights, placing burdens on law-abiding gun owners, while failing to prevent mass shootings.

Historically, opponents of bans on specific types of weapons have criticized them as unenforceable and often out of touch with the nuances of firearm styles.

"We haven't seen any bill text from Democrats on assault weapons, but I will say that we find bans to be ineffective and that they end up punishing good, law-abiding Coloradans," says Republican Sen. John Cooke, a former sheriff.

According to Cooke, Senate Republicans plan to respond to the Boulder shooting by pushing for a "massive investment" in mental health services.

"Something is troubled in the collective American psyche," says state Sen. Paul Lundeen, a Republican. "People are hurting and we need to do all we can to address that."

Republican state Rep. Matt Soper says that after the Boulder shooting, he started to hear chatter about a possible bill to ban certain types of guns statewide. He said there would be strong opposition from the GOP.

"We shouldn't have a knee-jerk reaction to these tragedies," he says, warning such a ban would likely be unconstitutional. "The political divide has grown even wider on the issue of guns and there's a lot of emotion involved on both sides."

Colorado's own constitution protects individual gun ownership: "The right of no person to keep and bear arms in defense of his home, person and property, or in aid of the civil power when thereto legally summoned, shall be called in question."

However, the state Supreme Court has upheld past gun laws as legal under that provision.

Two gun bills are making their way through this year's legislative session. One proposal would require safe storage of firearms in many instances and the other would require people to report lost and stolen guns. Both have passed their first chamber, so far on almost entirely on party-line votes.

The Boulder shooting is the largest mass shooting in Colorado since 2012. The state has some of the highest numbers of mass shootings in the country, beginning in 1999 with the attack on Columbine High School.

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Assault Weapons Ban Could Be In Colorado's Future - NPR