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The national Democratic super PAC Forward Majority is doubling its spending to flip the Texas House, bringing its commitment to over $12 million.

The political action committee said in early September that it would drop $6.2 million to help Democrats capture the majority. But in an announcement first shared with The Texas Tribune, Forward Majority said it is now surging its spending to keep up with Republicans in the homestretch of the fight to control the lower chamber ahead of the 2021 redistricting process.

The Republican State Leadership Committee, the chief national GOP group focused on state legislative races, had vowed to top Forward Majority's initial $6.2 million investment, and it raised $5.3 million into a Texas-based account between July 1 and late September. Of that haul, $4.5 million came via GOP megadonor Sheldon Adelson and his wife, Miriam.

"The RSLC and Karl Rove aren't going to call the shots in Texas in this election," Forward Majority spokesperson Ben Wexler-Waite said in a statement, alluding to both the national GOP outfit and a state-level PAC with which Rove, the famous party strategist, is working. "Republicans are hemorrhaging millions on Texas state house races because they know their majority is in grave jeopardy and that this is the most important state in the country for redistricting."

Democrats are nine seats away from the majority, and they also have to defend the 12 seats they picked up in 2018. Forward Majority has been exclusively on offense, targeting its original $6.2 million effort at 18 Republican-held seats.

Forward Majority said its spending surge was prompted by millions of dollars in TV ad buys by Republicans in some of the most competitive districts, such as those of Republican Reps. Jeff Leach of Plano, Angie Chen Button of Richardson, Morgan Meyer of Dallas and Sarah Davis of Houston. In two of those districts Meyer's and Davis' Forward Majority is teaming up with Everytown for Gun Safety, the national anti-gun violence group, to try to counter increased GOP ad spending.

Everytown said it is spending $600,000 to support Forward Majority's advertising against Meyer and Davis as well as to launch its own TV ads opposing three-Dallas area GOP lawmakers: Meyer, Button and Rep. Matt Shaheen of Plano. Those commercials target the lawmakers for not supporting proposals to stem gun violence, such as background checks on all gun sales.

The ramped-up spending plan by Forward Majority reflects just how fiercely competitive the fight for the majority has become. While Democrats had plenty to boast about on the latest campaign finance reports, Republicans in general had more money to spend heading into late September, and they are getting seven-figure aid in the final weeks from not just the RSLC but also Gov. Greg Abbott's campaign.

"We've long seen several paths to flipping the Texas House and we will continue to do everything we can to ensure Democratic legislative candidates aren't drowned out by millions in special interest money," Wexler-Waite said.

Disclosure: Everytown for Gun Safety has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

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Democratic super PAC to spend $12 million in battle for the Texas House - The Texas Tribune

Not only does Biden need a Senate majority, the size of the majority will also be crucial.

If he only has a cushion of one or two votes, Gary Burtless, an economist at Brookings, argues,

it would greatly reduce the chances Democrats could enact sweeping political and regulatory reforms, including major climate change legislation and rationalization of the Affordable Care Act.

But, Burtless continued,

Even a bare majority would allow Democrats to enact sensible fiscal policies, provide adequate relief to the unemployed, confirm centrist and liberal federal judges, and give the Democratic President greater leeway to reverse Trump-era regulations/deregulations.

Jim Kessler, executive vice president of Third Way, a centrist Democratic organization, put it this way:

A Democratic majority in the Senate is crucial, because controlling the floor and setting the legislative calendar is a must. A larger majority is better for Biden, but the difference between 49 and 50 is night and day. The difference between 50 and 53 are shades of gray.

The fact that Biden, a Democratic moderate, is campaigning on what may well be the most liberal platform since Franklin Roosevelts New Deal may help him fend off challenges from his left.

The Biden agenda is very ambitious, Kessler noted in his email:

The center and mainstream left are not far apart on climate and infrastructure and I expect a major package will get done. Covid relief and an economic recovery package will get done. Medicare for All is off the table, so theres a good shot at some Obamacare expansions and of capping out-of-pocket health care costs. There will be tax reform.

La Raja, in turn, pointed out that

unlike Tea Party Republicans who wanted nothing to happen, people on the Democratic Left actually want some policies and will be willing to compromise even if these fall short of the ideal. There is room for leadership to negotiate and maneuver.

Despite this, La Raja warned,

the prospect of intraparty divisions is real, with a restive left-wing of the party and understandable calls for aggressive, even radical change.

What are the most likely sources of intraparty contention, I asked. La Raja replied:

Policies related to race will remain fraught, particularly if internal debates appear to focus on issues that do not poll well with the broader electorate, e.g., defunding the police.

Another source of internal party conflict, La Raja continued, would be an outcry from Democratic campaign contributors faced with the prospect of higher taxes to cover the costs of administration initiatives:

Then there is the Democratic donor class. The next few years will require significant sacrifices from the upper-fifth and especially the upper one percent to agree to policies that require massive investments, that address looming debt problems and create shared prosperity. These battles will be waged with the people who donate the vast majority of money to political campaigns and assess the viability of candidates. There will be major arguments over how to regulate Wall Street, Big Tech, and other industries, which are sources of great wealth for Democratic donors.

Jacob Hacker, a political scientist at Yale, warned in an email that Biden will have to avoid stepping on any land mines:

The big issue here is staying away from raw nerves that could activate affluent localist resistance, which in turn could split the broad metro coalition that Democrats enjoy. Raising taxes on the superrich wont do that.

Hacker cautioned, however, against placing new burdens on the top 20 percent, among whom Democratic support is growing.

On race specifically, Hacker continued, Biden should pursue

what Theda Skocpol once called targeting within universalism broad policies that, by design and in effect, are most beneficial to disadvantaged minority Americans.

How about immigration?

Honestly, comprehensive immigration reform is likely quicksand. Biden should focus first on rolling back Trump policies, protecting Dreamers and setting up the next debate on the most favorable terms.

Can Biden, backed by a Democratic Senate, use the power of governing to strengthen and expand the Democratic coalition, to build an alliance of voters that improves the partys prospects in the future?

Frances Lee, a political scientist at Princeton, thinks not:

Presidents presiding over unified government typically face huge backlash at their midterm elections. This has been true regardless of how well they hold together on their partys priorities. Democrats lost their congressional majority in 1994 after they had failed spectacularly to deliver on health care reform with unified government under President Clinton. Democrats then lost their congressional majority again in 2010 after they succeeded in passing health care reform with unified government under President Obama. No matter whether they succeeded or failed on their major agenda priority, the midterm election result was the same.

The reality:

Neither party has been able to command enduring trust from American voters since 1980. In that sense, both parties are fundamentally minority parties. When given unified government, neither party has been able govern in such a way as to substantially expand its support and avoid the midterm backlash.

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What if Beating Trump Is the Easy Part? - The New York Times

But now on top of that, three times a week, 29-year-old Caldwell-Liddell is racing to get Detroit voters, especially the black community, to, in her words, "wake up."

Trump's Michigan victory was one of the biggest surprises of 2016. He won the state by just 10,704 votes. Wayne County, which includes Detroit, the largest Black-majority city in the country, was critical to that result. Hillary Clinton still won the county by a large margin -- but she received about 76,000 fewer votes than President Barack Obama did in 2012.

While Caldwell-Liddell is motivated and focused on preventing Trump's re-election, she also says, "the Democratic Party has not done a good job at all in taking care of communities like ours." And it's she clear she struggles with that burden.

"(Democrats) take us for granted because they know that Black women are going to help them get the big wins they need, where it matters. But they also know that they can give us the bare minimum, knowing that we aren't going to choose the other side," she said. "

"It says we still got a long way to go when the backbone of the country is the most neglected piece of the country," she said.

She isn't coordinating with any campaign, but she is pounding the pavement at bus stops and outside convenience stores to try to make sure Detroiters are registered to vote and are going to vote. Many of them are disillusioned by the systemic racism they see within their city, the President's response to the coronavirus pandemic that has hit minority communities hardest and the economic inequality that has persisted for decades in Detroit and is only made worse by the pandemic.

"I know for a fact that if just a portion of the folks who sat home in 2016 made it to the polls, had someone to empower them to do it, that could have changed the outcome for Michigan," Caldwell-Liddell said.

"On countless days when I go out and canvass, I will go up and talk to someone and they'll say, 'Listen, lady, I know that what you're saying is probably right. I know that you just want me to get out and vote. But I'm sorry. I've got gotta feed my kids. I don't even have time to listen to what you're saying,'" she said. "That's a part of why I started doing this work with Mobilize Detroit...because at this point, this is our survival now. What happens politically is a part of our survival. And there's no escaping that."

Fighting against apathy

Amber Davis, 29, is one of those people who sat out the 2016 election after supporting Obama in 2012.

"I didn't like Trump and I didn't like Hillary," Davis said. "I didn't really care who won that election."

Davis, a part-time massage therapist and full-time student pursuing a career in IT, says she cares now. She's voting for Biden, even though she says she doesn't really like him either.

"If I get Trump out of office by voting for Biden, then so be it," she said. Davis adds it is the President's handling of the pandemic that clinched her vote this time. "This coronavirus and everything that's going on, it is horrible. So he got to go."

She says she is disillusioned by politics in general because she says no matter which party wins the White House, her life doesn't get any easier.

"We feel like our votes don't matter. We feel like it's just a waste of time," Davis said.

Caldwell-Liddell knows what it is like to not have time for politics, especially presidential politics. In just the past year, she says her family was forced out of a home they had rented for the past four years. Then the next home had plumbing issues and instead of fixing it, the landlord simply just had the water shutoff, requiring Caldwell-Liddell to take them to court to get anything fixed. In the midst of all of this, she lost her pregnancy.

"I ended up having a stillbirth at seven months pregnant, living in a house with no water in a city that did not care to take care of me," she said. "And things like that are allowed to happen because when folks like me are too worried about surviving to pay attention to what's happening down at City Hall."

She is now turning that apathy into action.

"I know that as a voter and as a Black woman, that there is a job that I have to do in order to get a representative who will come close to protecting my people in office. But I'm not necessarily excited about having another representative there who really does not inherently understand the needs of our community."

Caldwell-Liddell is voting for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, spending free time that she doesn't have trying to get others in Detroit to vote for him, but she's not excited about it. This election for her is more a vote against Trump.

"I don't really have many feelings towards Joe Biden one way or the other," she says. "Kamala (Harris) makes me feel a lot better than Joe, to be honest with you."

She says getting Trump out of office means life or death for her community. "Donald Trump is a president that does not care about people that look like me, about people like me, in any shape or form."

Sitting out any election is something 63-year-old Markita Blanchard simply does not understand.

"I've always voted straight down the street," she says while sitting in her backyard filled with the plants and flowers she shows off with pride. "There is no justifiable excuse not to."

"People died for that right for us to have the opportunity to vote," she added.

Like Caldwell-Liddell, Blanchard has also lived in Detroit her whole life. She and her three brothers still live in the house they grew up in, now all taking care of their 93-year-old mother.

Blanchard works as a janitor at a local public school. While she describes her childhood in the westside of Detroit as a "fairytale," she describes life today as a struggle.

"We're not exactly living paycheck to paycheck. I consider myself living paycheck and a half to paycheck," she said.

The main street in her neighborhood looks nothing like how Blanchard describes it from her childhood. A "ghost town" now sits where grocery stores, dry cleaners, Black-owned gas stations and a movie theatre once stood. This economic collapse is one reason Blanchard is voting for Biden. She says she's with him "100%," reserving more colorful language to describe Trump.

"He's full of s***. I'm saying he has done nothing," Blanchard says with an apology. "It's like we're living in a sitcom and it's not funny. It's not funny at all."

"I've had people say, well, he's not my President. I didn't vote," Blanchard recalls with visible anger. "I say, if you did not vote, you did vote for him."

Impact of coronavirus and police shootings

One critical pursuit of the Biden campaign in Michigan is to turn out those voters who didn't vote in 2016. But the Trump campaign is also taking steps to court those same people, including setting up an office just down the road from the Democratic Party's on Detroit's West side, covered with signs declaring "Black Voices for Trump."

"I've never seen it. I've never seen it ever, ever before," said President Pro Tempore of the Detroit City Council Mary Sheffield. "What that tells me is the importance of not only Michigan but Detroit in the black vote, the importance of the black vote...because both parties need us."

Sheffield says she is worried about what she senses is still a lack of enthusiasm this late in the game among Democrats in Detroit. She thinks the coronavirus pandemic is partly to blame.

"Joe Biden is not really the most exciting person. And I think, unfortunately, in light of COVID, we lost that personal touch with him that a lot of communities need to get them excited and to get them engaged," Sheffield said.

The coronavirus has disproportionally hit Black communities across the country, and Detroit is no exception. African Americans have made up 62.2% of the more than 14,000 confirmed cases in Detroit and 82.9% of the deaths.

While coronavirus may have hurt grassroot engagement for the campaigns, Sheffield says a different issue is sure to motivate Black voters.

"What we saw with George Floyd did spark a reaction in so many people and I think that's going to help also increase some of the voter turnout that we see in Detroit," she said.

Federal action in the police killing of Breonna Taylor is the one thing Davis says could actually swing her vote and convince her to vote for Trump.

"He could get Breonna Taylor's killers arrested, that's what he could do," she said. "I would definitely vote for Trump."

Taylor's death also weighs heavily on Wendy Caldwell-Liddell.

"When you're black in America, you know racism is alive and well," she says when asked about it.

She pauses, looks off, and shifts in her chair.

"Now I have to battle with that on top of the thoughts of when I send my son into the world," she said. "And now it's when me and my daughter are at home asleep, minding our business. Now, I've got to think about that, too."

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Black women are the backbone of the Democratic Party. And they feel the heavy burden of this election. - CNN

WASHINGTON (AP) Democrats controlling the House narrowly passed a $2.2 trillion COVID-19 relief bill Thursday night, a move that came as top-level talks on a smaller, potentially bipartisan measure dragged on toward an uncertain finish. An air of pessimism has largely taken over the Capitol.

The Democratic bill passed after a partisan debate by a 214-207 vote without any Republicans in support. The move puts lawmakers no closer to actually delivering aid such as more generous weekly unemployment payments, extended help for small businesses and especially troubled economic sectors such as restaurants and airlines, and another round of $1,200 direct payments to most Americans.

Passage of the $2.2 trillion plan came after a burst of negotiations this week between Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. The Trump administration delivered concessions Wednesday, including a $400 per week pandemic jobless benefit and a markedly higher overall price tag of $1.6 trillion, but that failed to win over Pelosi.

This isnt half a loaf, this is the heel of the loaf, Pelosi said in a televised interview Thursday. Pelosi spoke after the White House attacked her as not being serious.

The ramped-up negotiations come as challenging economic news continues to confront policymakers. The airlines are furloughing about 30,000 workers with the expiration of aid passed earlier this year, and a report Thursday showed 837,000 people claiming jobless benefits for the first time last week. Most of the economic benefits of an immediate round of COVID relief could accrue under the next administration, and failure now could mean no significant help for struggling families and businesses until February.

The vote was advertised as a way to demonstrate Democrats were making a good faith offer on coronavirus relief, but 18 Democrats abandoned the party and sentiment remains among more moderate Democrats to make more concessions and guarantee an agreement before Election Day. Republicans controlling the Senate remained divided.

Talks between Mnuchin and Pelosi were closely held and the Speaker told reporters that no deal would come on Thursday. Mnuchins offer of a $400 per week jobless benefit put him in the same ballpark as Democrats backing a $600 benefit. Mnuchins price tag of $1.6 trillion or more could drive many Republicans away, however, even as it failed to satisfy Pelosi.

We raised our offer to $1.6 trillion, White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany told reporters Thursday. Its one that she is is not interested in.

Mnuchin and Pelosi spoke by phone Thursday, but the speaker was publicly dismissive of the latest White House plan. Discussions are continuing, Pelosi said.

The White House plan, offered Wednesday, gave ground with a $250 billion proposal on funding for state and local governments and backed $20 billion in help for the struggling airline industry.

Details on the White House offer were confirmed by congressional aides, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss closed-door discussions.

As the talks dragged on, House leaders announced a Thursday evening vote on their scaled-back HEROES Act, which started out as a $3.4 trillion bill in May but is now down to $2.2 trillion after Pelosi cut back her demands for aiding state and local governments. The legislation came after party moderates openly criticized her stance.

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows has drawn a line in the sand and warns that Trump wont approve legislation that approaches a $2 trillion threshold. But theres plenty of wiggle room in numbers so large, and the revenue picture for many states is not as alarming as feared when Democrats passed more than $900 billion for state and local governments in May.

Pelosi said Thursday that the administration is still far short on aid to state and local governments and in other areas.

Some of you have asked, Isnt something better than nothing? No, Pelosi told reporters, citing the opportunity cost for provisions sought by Democrats but potentially lost in any rush to agreement.

At issue is a long-delayed package that would extend another round of $1,200 direct stimulus payments, restore bonus pandemic jobless benefits, speed aid to schools and extend assistance to airlines, restaurants and other struggling businesses. A landmark $2 trillion relief bill in March passed with sweeping support and is credited with helping the economy through the spring and summer, but worries are mounting that the recovery may sputter without additional relief.

Pelosi has largely assumed a hard line so far. But shes never had a reputation for leaving large sums of money on the table and her tactical position facing a White House and Senate controlled by Republicans is not as strong as her demands might indicate.

The White House also seems far more eager for a deal than Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Any compromise that could pass both the House and Senate is sure to alienate a large chunk of the Senate GOP. McConnell expressed support for the talks and another bill but isnt leaning into the effort. But some of his members appear worried that the deadlock is harming their reelection bids.

Id like to see another rescue package. Weve been trying for months to get there, McConnell told reporters Thursday. I wish them well.

Even if Pelosi and Mnuchin were able to reach a tentative agreement on top line spending levels, dozens of details would need to be worked out. A particularly difficult issue, Pelosi told her colleagues earlier in the day, remains McConnells insistence on a liability shield for businesses fearing COVID-related lawsuits after they reopen their doors.

The latest Democratic bill would revive a $600-per-week pandemic jobless benefit and send a second round of direct payments to most individuals. It would scale back an aid package to state and local governments to a still-huge $436 billion, send $225 billion to colleges and universities and deliver another round of subsidies to businesses under the Paycheck Protection Program. Airlines would get another $25 billion in aid to prevent a wave of layoffs.

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House Democrats pass partisan COVID bill; relief talks drag - The Associated Press

President Trumps exhortation Dont be afraid of Covid was denounced by Democrats and others who criticized him for taking a dismissive tone about a disease that has killed more than 200,000 Americans, sickened more than 7.4 million and upended daily life across the country.

Dont be afraid of Covid, Mr. Trump wrote on Twitter after announcing his plan to leave Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Md., where he was brought by helicopter on Friday after testing positive for the coronavirus. Dont let it dominate your life.

His statement quickly resonated in the political world, with some Democrats denouncing it as cavalier, saying it implicitly suggested that those who died after contracting the virus were weak. And several warned that minimizing the dangers posed by a virus that is spreading across the country and the highest levels of government sent a dangerous message at a moment health officials are pleading with the public to take precautions, wear masks and practice social distancing.

Dont be afraid of Covid is an evil thing to say to those of us who lost our loved ones to Covid 19, Representative Ilhan Omar, a Democratic congresswoman from Minnesota whose father died from complications of Covid-19, wrote on Twitter. This man is unfit to be President, he lacks the compassion and humanity it takes to lead our country.

Carlos del Rio, an infectious disease expert at Emory University in Atlanta, responded to the presidents post with one of his own: Are you telling the relatives of 210,000 Americans who have died of #COVID19 not to be afraid? Please tell everyone the truth once and for all, this is serious & #WearAMask You didnt and got infected.

Julin Castro, a former secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, wrote: More than 200,000 American lives have been lost to Covid-19. The president himself and countless staff have been infected. Yet, nine months into the pandemic, the presidents advice is dont be afraid of Covid.

Several Republicans embraced Mr. Trumps dismissive message. Senator Kelly Loeffler, a Georgia Republican, tweeted: COVID stood NO chance against @realDonaldTrump and shared a crudely doctored video of the president in a wresting match with the virus. And Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida posted: President Trump wont have to recover from COVID. COVID will have to recover from President Trump.

Many Democrats noted that Mr. Trump has access to better health care than most Americans. Senator Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat, reacted to the presidents tweet by posting tell that to all the Americans who - unlike you - DONT have access to the best healthcare in the world, funded entirely by taxpayers.

Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut went further, noting reports showing that Mr. Trump had paid little or no federal income tax in recent years. Dont be afraid, says the guy with a team of a dozen doctors, access to experimental treatments that no one else gets, a four room hospital suite, who lives in a house with top doctors on site 24/7, he wrote on Twitter. All of which is provided to him for free because he refuses to pay taxes.

In all seriousness, the Presidents incompetence has already gotten 200,000 killed, he added. The consequences of this tweet will probably kill a couple thousand more. Just bone chilling.

The doctor overseeing President Trumps care, Dr. Sean P. Conley, was asked about the presidents tweet at a news conference on Monday afternoon at Walter Reed. Im not going to get into what the president says, he said at the briefing, where he had also noted that the president was not out of the woods yet in his fight against Covid-19.

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Trumps Dont Be Afraid of Covid Tweet Is Denounced by Democrats - The New York Times