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It all started with a 19-year-old college student from Queens.

Aaron Fernando, a rising junior honors student at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, told CNN on Tuesday he began compiling police union campaign donations to New York Democrats the day before George Floyd was killed in Minneapolis last week.

When news of Floyd's death gripped the nation, though, Fernando said he felt compelled to share what otherwise may have been a side project for his own personal use.

"I've been looking at state finance disclosures for candidates in New York and I was noticing a lot of police money, law enforcement money taken by Democrats claiming to be against it," he said. "I was making this spreadsheet. Then (the death of) George Floyd happened -- so many people responded and it got, like, a hundred likes in a couple hours? So people wanted to see this."

"Your contributors are a reflection of who you are," he said. "I think it's fair to ask politicians to take money that aligns with the values they espouse. If you're going to fight to end solitary confinement in New York, you shouldn't be taking money from corrections officers."

New York Democratic officials respond

Among the most notable politicians to reallocate their campaign donations is New York State Sen. Michael Gianaris, who says he donated $16,650 in contributions to bail funds and mutual aid after Fernando's spreadsheet made the rounds.

"I thought this was an important thing to do," Gianaris said. "Others can decide for themselves. We're held accountable by the people we represent. I'm the deputy majority leader and highest-ranking senator from New York City, so I have a special obligation to take a stand, given what happened and what we continue to see on the streets every day."

"It's outrageous to suggest someone's public safety should be put in danger," he said. "We're not in a political alliance with law enforcement. That mentality highlights that we have a systemic problem."

Catalina Cruz, a New York state assemblywoman, said it was a mistake to take the money and that she is giving it to bail funds.

"Nobody questioned where I stood, but it was me proactively saying no one should question where I stood," she said. "I'm not going to allow anyone to question where I stand -- not even going to give it a chance. I said, 'Let's give back the money.'"

Others, such as Assemblywoman Karines Reyes, said she hadn't even realized she had taken police contributions.

"The contributions don't necessarily come from police officers," Reyes said. "They come from an organization whose sole purpose is to protect police officers even when they're in the wrong -- oftentimes when they are in the wrong. And that is counterintuitive to accountability. There is no profession where you can kill somebody without being accountable."

Reyes said her constituents made clear that they didn't want their representatives taking police money anymore, which Fernando said he "never thought" would happen when he first made the spreadsheet.

"I couldn't do anything without those people on the street," he said. "Without those protests, it wouldn't have had the momentum to take notice.

"Black Lives Matter was in the back of (politicians') minds and now it's pushed to the front," he said. "That's the way I see it."

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A 19-year-old called out New York Democrats accepting police campaign donations. To his surprise, many have listened - CNN

East Lyme Town Democrats have organized a peaceful rally and vigil to take place at noon Saturday at the Samuel M. Peretz Park at Bridebrook, 221 West Main St.

The event seeks to honor the lives of George Floyd and Breonna Taylorwhile alsostanding "in solidarity with Black Indigenous People of Color in the fight against racism, the fight for social justice and to support the reform necessary to break the cycle of brutality that led to their, and countless other deaths," according to a Facebook post about the event.

Floyd is the blackman who died lastmonth after a white Minneapolis police officer pressed his knee into his neck during an arrest, andTayloris a black womanfatally shot in her own home by Louisville Metro Police Department officers in March.

Confirmed speakers at the event will include Dr. Terrlyn L. Currey, founder of Sacred Intelligence; Jean Jordan, a retired teacher and president of the New London NAACP; Janelle Posey-Green, a social worker who recently created the CT Black Mental Health Forum to support the emotional needs of the local black community; Tariko Satterfield, an entrepreneur; Kevin Booker Jr., founder of Booker Empowerment, and Elizabeth Allen, a licensed clinical social worker with extensive experience onsubstance abuse, complex trauma and forensic settings.

Those coming to the event are asked to wear a mask and follow social distancing measures.

m.biekert@theday.com

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East Lyme Democrats to host peaceful rally and vigil Saturday - theday.com

MIAMI Former Vice President Joe Biden's campaign is confident that its message President Donald Trump's "failed" coronavirus pandemic response and its disproportionate toll on Latino families and workers will resonate among Florida's Latino voters in this pivotal swing state.

But the Trump campaign is sticking to its own script: a constant barrage of attacks calling Biden a socialist or a communist, hammered regularly during virtual events, through social media and in campaign emails.

Some Florida Latino Democrats worry that this messaging, while false Biden is not a socialist nor does he support socialist policies is effective, and they want the campaign to fight it head-on.

Annette Taddeo, a Democratic state senator and Biden surrogate, said constant messaging against Trump's "socialist" attacks is crucial to counter the steady Republican messaging.

The campaign needs to push back, strong and quick, Taddeo said. The campaign is not doing it yet, adding that she is confident it will.

Taddeo remarked that it's Trump who's behaving like a Latin American "strongman." She pointed to Trump's recent actions like firing the State Department inspector general who was investigating possible corruption.

Winning Florida, the largest of the half-dozen typical swing states, is about moving small margins among different groups, rather than swaying a broad swath of voters. Recent polls have the two candidates in a statistical tie.

Florida is home to a diverse group of Hispanic voters, including some who have fled left-wing governments and guerrilla groups in Latin America and the Caribbean and are sensitive to Trumps messaging.

Recently, the Trump campaign attacked Biden for saying in an interview he would restore the Obama-era policy of engagement with Cuba and claimed the Cuban government endorsed Biden after a top diplomat said Trump's re-election would be a "negative scenario" for the country. While former President Barack Obama's policies, which resulted in more Americans traveling to Cuba, did have Cuban American support, Trump's hardline policies are favored by Cuban Americans who oppose engagement.

Ali Pardo, the Trump campaign's deputy communication's director, accused D.C. insiders of pushing Biden toward socialism," in a statement to NBC News.

The Trump administration touts its sanctions against Venezuelan President Nicols Maduro and its tougher policies around the Cuban embargo, accusing the Cuban government of propping up Maduro.

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In a recent press release, Biden senior adviser Cristbal Alex, the highest ranking Latino in the campaign, hit back at the Trump administration's policies, saying they love to pay lip service to being allies to the Cuban, Venezuelan and Nicaraguan people, while many asylum-seekers from these countries are denied parole and remain in detention centers during the pandemic, rather than being released to relatives.

Alex also hit Trump for not extending to Venezuelans temporary protected status that would allow them to legally live and work in the U.S. for a designated period of time.

For Taddeo, these kinds of responses have to be constant and regular.

The Biden campaign recently formed a "Venezolanos con Biden" ("Venezuelans with Biden") group and a "Cubanos con Biden" ("Cubans with Biden") group, aimed at showcasing his support among these voter groups.

Evelyn Prez-Verda, a Democratic strategist who focuses on Latino messaging, said she's been warning Democrats in the state against using the word "progresista," the Spanish word for "progressive," because while it can appeal to younger and more liberal Latino Democrats, some voters who grew up in Latin America associate it with socialism.

They dont realize how much theyre scaring off potential voters that are from Colombia, Venezuela or Mexico who are very moderate, Prez-Verda said.

The Trump campaign has jumped on this. A Trump campaign email that links Biden to Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and accuses him of embracing socialism states in Spanish that "'progressive' is simply another way of saying 'Chavista socialism,'" referencing the left-wing ideology of late Venezuelan President Hugo Chvez.

Rick Wilson, a Florida Republican consultant and vocal Trump critic, told NBC News the president is more of a socialist at times, pointing out how Trump bailed out farmers hurt by his trade war with China.

But its also difficult in the current Democratic Party to push back on socialism, said Wilson, pointing out Sanders and other legislators who represent the party's left wing.

The socialism messaging is something that Biden doesnt have to address directly, but he certainly needs to push back in other ways, Wilson said.

Wilson has said previously that the Biden campaign should focus on mobilizing Puerto Rican voters in central Florida, a growing and key voter bloc in the state. Though Puerto Ricans helped vote Republican Sen. Rick Scott into office he actively mobilized as governor to help Puerto Ricans after Hurricane Maria they voted overwhelmingly for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump has been highly criticized for his slow response to the island's devastating 2017 hurricane.

Democratic officials are banking on the ravages of the pandemic as an effective campaign strategy. The Democratic National Committee held a recent Florida webinar where DNC Chair Tom Perez slammed Trump over the lack of Latino small businesses receiving loans under the Payment Protection Program and pointed out that Latinos have been the worst hit by coronavirus job losses, at 18.9%. Taddeo participated in a virtual "charla," or talk, to discuss the bleak pandemic situation among Floridians.

Still, some Democrats want the campaign to be more forceful and call Trump a "strongman" in events and press releases, saying it would be easy to capitalize on his recent actions like regulating social media.

Asked why the Biden campaign has not been more forceful in consistently countering Trump's "socialist" attacks, a Biden spokesperson said in a email, "We've seen Donald Trump attack the free press, undermine faith in our institutions by baselessly attacking vote-by-mail and spreading misinformation, assert he could be in power for 9 to 13 more years, and fire his inspectors general."

The email statement went on to say, "This is dangerous, strongman-like behavior and we know Hispanics will hold Trump accountable in November by electing Joe Biden."

Rep. Donna Shalala, D-Fla., who represents a district that includes parts of Miami with many Cuban and Venezuelan voters, is familiar with the socialism messaging. She lashed out at Sanders after he praised Cuba's literacy program and when he refused to call Maduro a dictator.

She also continually rips Trump for the lengthy detention of asylum-seekers and not granting Venezuelans temporary protected status.

But Shalala said she has "no problem" with how the Biden campaign is being run. One thing about our party is that people whine a lot, but at the end, we deliver.

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In this swing state, Latino Democrats want Biden to fight against Trump's 'socialist' attacks - NBC News

ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as theyre published.

This article was co-published with The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

It was a stunning accusation: Two days before the 2018 election for Georgia governor, Republican Brian Kemp used his power as secretary of state to open an investigation into what he called a failed hacking attempt of voter registration systems involving the Democratic Party.

But newly released case files from the Georgia Bureau of Investigation reveal that there was no such hacking attempt.

The evidence from the closed investigation indicates that Kemps office mistook planned security tests and a warning about potential election security holes for malicious hacking.

Kemp then wrongly accused his political opponents just before Election Day a high-profile salvo that drew national media attention in one of the most closely watched races of 2018.

The investigation by the GBI revealed no evidence of damage to (the secretary of states offices) network or computers, and no evidence of theft, damage, or loss of data, according to a March 2 memo from a senior assistant attorney general recommending that the case be closed.

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The internet activity that Kemps staff described as hacking attempts was actually scans by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security that the secretary of states office had agreed to, according to the GBI. Kemps chief information officer signed off on the DHS scans three months beforehand.

Although there was no malicious hack, the GBI files also report that the states website where voters can check their information did have a significant vulnerability a flaw Kemps staff still wont acknowledge a year and a half later.

Candice Broce, Kemps spokeswoman, continued to insist Friday that elections officials responded to a failed cyber intrusion, despite the GBIs findings that scans came from DHS.

The attorney general determined that the secretary of states office properly referred this matter to law enforcement for investigation, Broce said. The systems put in place by Brian Kemp as Georgias secretary of state kept voter data safe and secure.

In 2018, while the secretary of states office rushed to fix the vulnerability before Election Day, Broce, who was also Kemps spokeswoman then, said the last-minute patches to the website were standard practice.

The attorney generals office in March closed the investigation Kemp started, finding no evidence that would justify a prosecution.

After the investigation ended, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution used the Georgia Open Records Act to obtain 395 pages of GBI case files, including interview summaries, emails and election security reports.

Accusing an opponent of criminal acts without basis in fact, and lying to the public to cover up their own ineptitude, was a breach of public trust, Sara Tindall Ghazal, the Democratic Party of Georgias voter protection director at the time, said in an interview. Ghazal helped alert authorities to the election website vulnerabilities.

The GBI files dont explain the basis for the decision by Kemps office to blame the Democratic Party or support his accusation. Kemp went on to narrowly defeat Democrat Stacey Abrams in the election for governor.

Events unfolded quickly when Richard Wright, a Roswell voter, noticed vulnerabilities in the states election website shortly before voters went to the polls Nov. 6, 2018, according to the case files.

Wright, a Georgia Tech graduate and Democratic voter who works for a software company, had listened to a news report about a lawsuit over election security. He then checked his voter registration information and used his web browsers built-in tools to analyze the states My Voter Page.

When visiting the MVP site, I was curious if there were security issues given the recent news coverage I had heard, Wright wrote in a response to questions from the attorney generals office.

Wright found that he could look up other voters information by modifying the web address on the site, a flaw confirmed by ProPublica and Georgia Public Broadcasting before it was fixed.

He also made more disconcerting claims, that someone could download any file on the system as well as voters drivers license numbers and partial Social Security numbers. Those allegations were not substantiated. Wright told investigators he didnt attempt to look at any information on the website other than his own and his wifes.

Kemps office disputes Wrights allegations.

Richard Wrights allegations sent through the Abrams campaign and funneled to the Democratic Party of Georgia were false because you could not access confidential voter data, Broce said.

After discovering the vulnerability, Wright contacted plaintiffs in the election security lawsuit and the Democratic Party of Georgia. They passed along his concerns, which soon reached the FBI, the National Security Agency, the GBI, the Abrams campaign, Georgia Tech professors and attorneys for the secretary of states office.

Kemps staff began looking into Wrights claims. If true, they would be another blemish on Kemps election security record after his office had previously exposed voter data. (Georgia's Center for Election Systems at Kennesaw State University had wiped election servers soon after Kemps office was sued over another matter.)

His staffers, however, suspected hacking.

Our vendors research shows that the only way to accomplish this on the site is using tools designed to attack websites, which is what we fear is happening here, Ryan Germany, Kemps general counsel, wrote in a Nov. 3 email. Our vendor is making changes tonight to resolve the issue and is reviewing logs, but after our initial research it seems that we are dealing with an intentional attempt to hack a website.

An election security vendor for the state, Fortalice Solutions, later concluded, however, that there was no evidence that voter information had been accessed, manipulated or changed by bad actors.

Fortalice also confirmed vulnerabilities that exposed files on the My Voter Page. DHS exploited those vulnerabilities when it was testing Georgias election system in October 2018, according to the GBI files. Details of Fortalices findings were redacted from those files. The company said the vulnerabilities did not reveal confidential voter information.

Nevertheless, having an unpatched vulnerability like this is a really big problem, said Richard DeMillo, a Georgia Tech cybersecurity professor contacted by the Democratic Party with Wrights concerns. Since we know that the Russians were probing voter registration sites, why would you assume this kind of vulnerability wasnt something they could exploit?

Wrights email to the Democratic Party included an attached file that showed his web browsers interactions with the My Voter Page. The way the website worked suggested to Wright that the system could be exploited.

When that email reached Kemps office, Broce told investigators she thought the attachment was a script that could be used for hacking.

That wasnt true, according to a GBI digital forensic investigator. The file was merely a roadmap of the websites behavior.

But someone else was probing Georgias election websites: the U.S. government. The DHS Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency confirmed it was conducting cyberhygiene scanning to find vulnerabilities, tests that had been approved in advance by Kemps office.

Broce, who was both Kemps press secretary and a staff attorney, told investigators she was concerned that Wright had spoofed internet addresses to make it look like they were coming from DHS. Investigators later confirmed with Homeland Security officials and their network providers that they were the source of the scans.

It remains unclear how Kemps staff concluded that the Democratic Party was responsible for a hacking attempt. The partys only role was that it had forwarded an email about vulnerabilities to two cybersecurity professors at Georgia Tech, including DeMillo, who then alerted authorities. The GBI did not interview Kemp about the case.

Instead of immediately addressing the problem, it became political. It became an attack on the Democratic Party on the eve of the election, said David Cross, an attorney for plaintiffs in the election security lawsuit against the state. I dont see any way anyone could have a genuine belief there was any hacking done at all, much less by the Democratic Party.

While publicly denying Wrights claims about vulnerabilities, behind the scenes, Kemps staff was working to correct them.

ProPublica and GPB reported on the day before the election that Kemps office was patching problems with the states election website, even as Kemp maintained the system was secure. The GBI files confirmed that the My Voter Page was modified to restrict access to vulnerable areas.

The secretary of states firewall hadnt been set up to block access to the locations identified by Wright, according to a GBI agents report. Election officials then set up safeguards to restrict access to the vulnerable areas on the last two days before the 2018 general election.

ProPublica found at the time that the vulnerability gave access to some nonconfidential information on the My Voter Page, such as a voters absentee ballot status. Birthdates, Social Security numbers and drivers license numbers werent available. It wasnt clear what sensitive information, however, could have been inadvertently accessible before programming errors were fixed.

Even if the security vulnerabilities revealed public information, webpages would have been nonetheless visible to people who shouldnt have been able to see them. The flaws also exposed details of the computer system that could have given hackers a road map to inflict greater damage.

Georgia election officials and their cybersecurity companies should have detected the problem before Wright brought it to their attention, said Frank Rietta, the CEO of Rietta.com, a web application security firm based in the Atlanta suburb of Alpharetta. Users of the My Voter Page were able to access voter registration information without first logging in.

This type of weakness, called broken access control, is one of the 10 most critical web application security risks, according to the Open Web Application Security Project, an organization that works to improve software security.

The fact that theres one vulnerability is an indication that there might have been other vulnerabilities, Rietta said. We should want to fix vulnerabilities, not pretend theyre not there until it is exploited by the bad guys.

When Kemps office found out about the problem, Broce repeatedly dismissed it. While some of Wrights concerns werent validated, the GBI files confirmed that anyone could alter web addresses to access other voters information on the My Voter Page.

Then Broce said changes to the website were routine, meant to accommodate high traffic prior to Election Day, when in fact election officials were fixing a vulnerability Wright had brought to their attention.

We make changes to our website all the time, Broce told ProPublica and GPB at the time. We always move our My Voter Page to a static page before Election Day to manage volume and capacity. It is standard practice.

Even after the GBI cleared Wright, Broce said the investigation was appropriate.

Wright declined to comment for this article, but he answered a list of questions for the attorney generals office about his findings.

I do not engage in hacking activities. I reported the vulnerability that I discovered on the SOS My Voter Webpage because I was concerned that our elections process might not be secure, Wright wrote.

Broce suspected a Democratic Party plot to undermine Kemps credibility, according to an interview with the GBI.

She was also facing questions about security weaknesses from reporters for the website WhoWhatWhy, who she speculated were working with the plaintiffs in the election security lawsuit.

Broce told investigators that cybersecurity companies had identified attempts to exploit voter registration websites, but they werent able to verify where the scans came from. Those companies later verified that they originated with Homeland Security.

Soon after WhoWhatWhy published its article alleging that a hacker could compromise Georgias election, Broce posted a press release on the secretary of states website saying that the office was opening an investigation of the Democratic Party, alleging a hacking attempt.

Ghazal, with the Democratic Party, said in an interview that the party reported the website vulnerabilities but made no effort to publicize them, contact news media or turn them into an attack.

Clarification, May 29, 2020: This story was updated to clarify who wiped election servers soon after Brian Kemps office was sued over another matter.

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Law Enforcement Files Discredit Brian Kemp's Accusation That Democrats Tried to Hack the Georgia Election - ProPublica

Putin had grand plans for the spring, including a constitutional change that would let him remain in power into his 80s. Then the coronavirus hit. Now, Russia has more cases than any country except the US.

Consumption and hiring started to tick up in gross terms, not in net terms, Furman said, describing the phenomenon as a partial rebound. The bounce back can be very very fast, because people go back to their original job, they get called back from furlough, you put the lights back on in your business. Given how many people were furloughed and how many businesses were closed you can get a big jump out of that. It will look like a V.

Furmans argument is not that different from the one made by White House economic advisers and Trump, who have predicted an explosive third quarter, and senior adviser Jared Kushner, who said in late April that "the hope is that by July the country's really rocking again." White House officials were thrilled to hear that some of their views have been endorsed by prominent Democrats.

I totally agree, Larry Kudlow, head of the White House National Economic Council, replied in a text message when asked about Furmans analysis. Q3 may be the single best GDP quarter since regular data. 2nd half super big growth, transitioning to 4% or more in 2021. He called Furman, whom he said he knows well, usually a straight shooter. Hats off to him.

I have been saying that on TV as well, said Kevin Hassett, a top Trump economic adviser, who pointed to a Congressional Budget Office analysis predicting a 21.5 percent annualized growth rate in the third quarter. If CBO is correct we will see the strongest quarter in history after the weakest in Q2.

Peter Navarro, a Trump trade and manufacturing adviser who's a Harvard-educated economist, called the high unemployment America is currently facing "manufactured unemployment, which is to say that Americans are out of work not because of any underlying economic weaknesses but to save American lives. It is this observation that gives us the best chance and hope for a relatively rapid recovery as the economy reopens."

(Asked about his new fans in the White House, Furman responded, They get the rebound part, but they dont get the partial part.)

A rebound wont mean that Trump has solved many underlying problems. Since the crisis started, many employers have gone bankrupt. Others have used the pandemic to downsize. Consumption and travel will likely remain lower. Millions of people in industries like hospitality and tourism will need to find new jobs in new industries.

The scenario would be a major long-term problem for any president. But before that reality sets in, Trump could be poised to benefit from the dramatic numbers produced during the partial rebound phase that is likely to coincide with the four months before November.

That realization has many Democrats spooked.

In absolute terms, the economy will look historically terrible come November, said Kenneth Baer, a Democratic strategist who worked in a senior role at the Office of Management and Budget under Obama. But relative to the depths of April, it will be on an upswing 12 percent unemployment, for example, is better than 20, but historically terrible. On Election Day, we Democrats need voters to ask themselves, Are you better off than you were four years ago? Republicans need voters to ask themselves, Are you better off than you were four months ago?

One progressive Democratic operative pointed out that recent polling, taken during the nadir of the crisis, shows Joe Biden is struggling to best Trump on who is more trusted to handle the economy. Trump beats Biden on the economy even right now! he said. This is going to be extremely difficult no matter what. Its existential that we figure it out. In any of these economic scenarios Democrats are going to have to win the argument that our public health and economy are much worse off because of Donald Trumps failure of leadership.

The former Obama White House official said, Even today when we are at over 20 million unemployed Trump gets high marks on the economy, so I cant imagine what it looks like when things go in the other direction. I dont think this is a challenge for the Biden campaign. This is the challenge for the Biden campaign. If they cant figure this out they should all just go home.

The Biden campaign seems to recognize the challenge. The way that Biden talks about the economy is not just tied to the Covid crisis, its also about the things that Donald Trump has done to undermine working people since the day he took office, said Kate Bedingfield, Bidens deputy campaign manager. But secondly, its also highly likely that under any economic circumstances in the fall, Trump is likely going to be the first modern president to preside over net job loss.

Between now and Election Day, there will be five monthly jobs reports, which are released on the first Friday of every month. The June report, covering May, is likely to show another increase in unemployment. But after that, Furman predicts, if reopening continues apace, the next four reports could be blockbusters. You could easily have 1 to 2 million jobs created a month in those four reports before November, he said.

He added, And then toward the end of October, we will get GDP growth for the third quarter, at an annualized rate, and it could be double-digit positive economic growth. So these will be the best jobs and growth numbers ever.

Furman noted that there is one major obvious caveat: If theres a second wave of the virus and a really serious set of lockdowns, I wouldnt expect to see this. But I think the most likely case is the one I just laid out.

When Obama ran for reelection in 2012, during the recovery from the Great Recession, he was able to point out that the unemployment rate was dropping about 1 point every year. But in a V-shaped recovery it would be much faster. The Trump argument will be hes producing the fastest job growth and fastest economic growth in history. If he has any ability to do nuance he would say, We are not there yet, reelect me to finish the job, Furman said. The Biden argument will be the unemployment rate is still 12 percent and even with those millions of jobs we are still down 15 million jobs and the only way for this to be fixed is new economic policies.

Austan Goolsbee, a predecessor to Furman as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Obama White House, said the recovery would be more like a reverse check mark, rather than a V, and that Biden and Democrats would need to point out that the explosive numbers predicted for the late summer and fall will not erase all of the damage.

I view it as Trump left the door open and five rats came into the kitchen and youre going to brag, Look I got two of the rats out? Goolsbee said. Theres a high risk you look completely out of touch if you still have double-digit unemployment rates.

Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), who is close to Biden, said he's been studying numerous economic forecasts and isnt convinced a V-shaped rebound is certain. It seems pretty unlikely to me that were going to have a really robust recovery in the next few months, he said. Of course, we all hope there will be. Frankly, no matter what the recovery looks like, I expect President Trump to either take credit for things he had nothing to do with or to avoid blame for things he helped cause.

Furman is an economist, but he had some strategic advice for the Biden campaign. Dont make predictions that could be falsified. There are enough terrible things to say you dont need to make exaggerated predictions, he said. The argument that we are in another Great Depression will look like it was overstated. Trump can say, Two million deaths didnt happen, Great Depression didnt happen, we are making a lot of progress.

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The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading - POLITICO