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How could the electoral circumstances for the US Democrats have been more favourable? A quarter of a million Americans have died in a pandemic bungled by the incumbent president, and at least 6 million have consequently been driven into poverty. The coronavirus crisis is the devastating climax of a presidency defined by hundreds of scandals, many of which alone, in normal circumstances, could have destroyed the political career of whoever occupied the White House.

Despite having the active support of almost the entire US press, Joe Bidens victory looks to be far narrower than predicted. During the Democratic primaries, Bidens cheerleaders argued that his socialist challenger Bernie Sanders would repel Floridas voters, and yet Donald Trump has triumphed in the sunshine state. They argued that his unelectable rival would risk the Senate and down-ballot races, yet the Republicans may retain control of the Senate, and Democrats are losing seats in the House of Representatives.

Without coronavirus, Trump would have undoubtedly secured another term and potentially dismantled an already flawed US democracy for a generation or more. This should have been a landslide, and now the world will pay the cost for the self-inflicted wounds of the Democratic establishment. Trump may be defeated; Trumpism lives on.

While attention should now focus on resisting attempts by Trump and his allies to steal the election, the Democratic establishment must also understand why this entirely avoidable farce came to pass. As their phones lit up four years ago with notifications that he had become the 45th president of the American republic, Trump was, to self-styled Democratic moderates, a sudden hurricane that materialised under clear blue skies: an aberration; a glitch; a perverse accident to be undone so normality and civility could be restored.

Many Democrats comforted themselves with the notion they had nothing to answer for: they had simply been cheated, Russia was to blame, and Hillary Clinton whose hubristic campaign had initially wanted Trump as its preferred Republican nominee had been tragically wronged. Rather than offering an inspiring alternative, Biden would bask in the reflected glory of Barack Obama, present himself as the grownup in the room, and focus on flipping erstwhile Trump voters on the grounds of competence alone. Striking, then, that not only did Trump win more votes than 2016, but 93% of Republicans opted for him this time around, up three points from that fateful election.

Ample criticisms can be made of Bidens candidacy, which limited its political horizons in deference to the Democrats corporate client base, when even Fox News exit polls showed that most Americans favoured a government-run healthcare plan. Democrats have taken Latino and black Americans for granted, an oversight that Trump ably exploited, winning (albeit from low numbers) increased support among both groups. But the roots of this failure go back decades. The Democratic establishment has long refused to embrace even the basic tenets of social democracy not least taxing the better-off to fund programmes such as a comprehensive welfare state and universal healthcare.

The political consequences of this failure have been devastating. In the 1960s, the Democratic president Lyndon B Johnson launched a series of great society programmes to tackle poverty. Yet while the tax burden of the average American family nearly doubled between the mid-1950s and 1980, taxes on corporate America have been successively slashed. Here was a resentment to be tapped into: that hard-working Americans, rather than the boss class, were subsidising those demonised as the undeserving poor.

This fury became racialised as the struggle of black Americans which was met with harsh white backlash forced the federal government to introduce basic civil rights. When Ronald Reagan furiously denounced welfare queens, many blue-collar workers heard a dog whistle targeting often single black mothers, who their hard-earned tax dollars were supposedly subsidising. When Bill Clintons administration backed trade agreements that devastated industrial jobs in the rust belt, here was another grievance waiting to be mined. And it was, by the most unlikely figurehead, the former host of the Apprentice. Trumpism has exploited racism, and fury at economic grievances, successfully welding both forces together.

In the aftermath of the financial crash, Obamas presidential campaign appeared to offer a break with the failures of successive Republican and Democratic administrations. But while he rescued the banks and let financial executives off the hook for their role in the 2008 crash, wages for millions of Americans stagnated or declined. While the slice of national income belonging to middle Americans fell from 62% to 43% between 1970 and 2018, the number of billionaires has surged: from 66 in 1990 with a combined wealth of $240bn, to 614 today, with a total fortune of nearly $3tn. America is now a society in which one in every 11 black adult is either in prison, or on parole or probation racial injustices that Black Lives Matter has urgently underlined.

The Democratic establishment has proved itself politically bankrupt and unable to meet these challenges. The party lost against Trump in 2016, and has at best scraped a stillborn administration this time around. We will all pick up the tab for this failure. Although Biden committed to signing the worlds biggest polluter back up to the Paris climate accords, a failure to win the Senate will block a Green New Deal that is desperately needed to tackle the existential threat of the climate emergency. The world cannot afford another four years of inaction. With Bidens likely presidency held hostage by a potentially hostile Senate and supreme court, the Republicans will be able to further gerrymander an already fatally compromised democratic system and, come mid-terms, tap into peoples disillusionment with an inevitably do-nothing government.

That does not mean there is no hope. The so-called Squad of progressive Congressional Democrats whose most famous member is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has doubled in number, including the election of former nurse Cori Bush in Missouri and the first queer black Congressman, Mondaire Jones, in New York. The old Democratic establishment has failed to inflict the final reckoning on Trumpism that is deserved. It falls to this new generation of progressive leaders predominantly working-class people of colour to finish the job, not just for the United States, but for all of us.

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Even if Biden wins, the world will pay the price for the Democrats' failures - The Guardian

Democrats are forecast to keep control of the U.S. House after Tuesdays elections, but with at least six incumbents losing their seats and others in jeopardy Republicans have likely chipped away at their majority.

Among the Democrats defeated were several elected in the 2018 blue wave that swept the party into the House majority, as well as with Agriculture Chairman Collin Peterson, who has represented his Minnesota district since 1991. There were 13 other Democrats trailing or in tight races in Pennsylvania, New York, Michigan, Iowa, Virginia and California.

With the losses and the failure to flip targeted GOP seats in Illinois, Ohio and Texas, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will have less room to maneuver and will face questions from House Democrats about her strategy and priorities leading up the election.

Democrats also are on the verge of failing in their quest for a Senate majority meaning, they might have to shelve their most ambitious plans for health care, fighting climate change and responding to the coronavirus epidemic.

Its not over until every vote is counted, Pelosi told supporters, pointing to races in her home state of California and elsewhere in the western U.S. that havent yet been called.

WATCH: Were all there for the people and to have a strategic plan to be successful. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says shes confident Democrats will continue to hold Congress.

business: https://bloom.bg/2TR2UcP #Election2020 (Source: QuickTake)

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In addition, Pelosi will be facing more pressure from the left. New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez easily won re-election and will be joined by several more self-described progressive members, including Jamaal Bowman, Mondaire Jones and Ritchie Torres in New York, and Missouris Cori Bush, who are replacing more centrist Democrats.

Democrats took over the House after they netted 41 seats in the 2018 midterm elections, the largest single-year pick-up since the post-Watergate midterms of 1974. But some of those new Democrats were among the partys losers Tuesday.

In Florida, Democratic Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell was defeated by Republican Carlos Gimenez, the mayor of Miami-Dade County. Democrat Donna Shalala, former Health and Human Services secretary, lost to Republican Maria Elvira Salazar, a broadcast journalist. Both districts have large Latino populations.

Read More: Democrats Chances for Senate Majority Diminish After GOP Wins

Three other first-term Democrats lost on Tuesday as well. Oklahoma Democratic Representative Kendra Horn conceded in her contest against Stephanie Bice, though the race had not been officially called. And South Carolina Democrat Joe Cunningham lost to Republican challenger Nancy Mace. New Mexicos Xochitl Torres Small lost to Republican Yvette Herrell.

Democrats picked up two formerly GOP seats that had been redistricted in North Carolina.

Part of House Democrats pre-election optimism came from the number of GOP retirements and the defeat of some Republican incumbents in primaries.

But Republicans held the seat opened up by the retirement of GOP Representative Francis Rooney in Florida. The winner of that contest, Byron Donalds, will be the only Black Republican in the House. Another open race in Texas for a Waco-area seat now held by retiring Republican Bill Flores was won by former House Rules Committee Chairman Pete Sessions, who had been defeated in his old Dallas area district in 2018.

Pelosi, the only woman ever to hold the speakers gavel, has already said she plans to run for re-election as speaker in the next Congress. House Democrats return on Nov. 18 and 19 to Washington, along with their members-elect, to elect leaders for the new session in January. That includes nominating a speaker who must then be elected by the full House of Representatives.

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Election Results: Democrats Holding House Majority, But Lose Several Incumbents - Bloomberg

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Former Vice President Joe Bidens remark during the final presidential debate that he would transition away from the fossil fuel industry was met with heavy pushback not only from Republicans who instantly identified the remark as Bidens weak point of the night but vulnerable Democrats as well.

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - OCTOBER 22: Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden ... [+] answers a question during the second and final presidential debate at Belmont University on October 22, 2020 in Nashville, Tennessee. This is the last debate between the two candidates before the election on November 3. (Photo by Morry Gash-Pool/Getty Images)

Asked by President Donald Trump during the debate if he would close down the oil industry, Biden replied: I would transition from the oil industry, yes which Trump called a big statement.

Biden said his rationale was that the oil industry pollutes significantly and has to be replaced by renewable energy over time, adding that he would stop giving them federal subsidies.

Trump expressed glee about the comment which seemingly confirmed his common claim that Biden is against oil asking: Will you remember that Texas? Will you remember that Pennsylvania? Oklahoma?"

Rep. Kendra Horn (D-Okla.), one of the most endangered House Democrats, affirmed Trumps reaction, calling Bidens stated position one of the places Biden and I disagree, and declaring: We must stand up for our oil and gas industry.

Another vulnerable freshman Democrat, Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D-M.N.) warned against demonizing the industry and stated she would continue to stand up to my party when theyre out of touch with the reality on the ground.

Biden attempted to walk back the comment later in the night, telling reporters he meant a transition from government subsidies for the industry, stating: Were not getting rid of fossil fuels for a long time probably 2050, and claiming nobody in oil would lose their jobs because a lot more jobs are going to be created in other alternatives.

Democrats, Republicans and Independents know that the U.S. natural gas and oil industry delivers affordable and reliable energy to American families and businesses and all over the world, the American Petroleum Institute said in a statement following the debate. We are proud of the grit, innovation and progress we've made so that Americans no longer have to choose between environmental progress and access to affordable, reliable and cleaner energy. And we arent going anywhere.

Biden's comment about transitioning from oil isn't the game-changer some of you believe it is, argued Politico chief political correspondent Tim Alberta. We've been transitioning from oil for 50 years. Voters see that in their everyday lives w/ industries utilizing new green tech. Biden didn't say anything tonight he hasn't said before.

5 points. Thats the size of Bidens lead in Pennsylvania, a pivotal battleground state, in the RealClearPolitics average. He trails by 4 points in Texas, a state Democrats hope to net but is unnecessary for an electoral college win for them. A Morning Consult poll of 799 Pennsylvania voters, conducted in June and July on behalf of API, found that 80% of Pennsylvania voters say gas and oil provide some value or a great deal of value to them personally. 67% said oil and gas would be a part of Americas energy needs 20 years from now.

The Biggest Falsehoods Of The Final Trump-Biden Presidential Debate (Forbes)

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Vulnerable Democrats Break With Biden Over Transition From Oil Industry - Forbes

[Read our full guide to the final presidential debate between Trump and Biden.]

For many Democrats, election night in 2016 unfolded with the sickening trajectory of a horror movie in which the teenage protagonists break out the beer and party on, unaware that the serial killer they thought they had vanquished is looming outside the window.

The watch parties, the pantsuits, the balloons, the blue-tinted cocktails, the giddiness, the sense of history, the electoral projections showing that Hillary Clinton would surely defeat Donald J. Trump to Democrats, these now look like quaint snapshots from some credulous prelapsarian world. And now, with the next presidential election approaching and Joseph R. Biden Jr. well ahead of President Trump in the polls, the traumatized, anxious Democratic voters of 2020 are not making the same mistake again.

Im assuming in my mind that Trump wins, because I cant deal with being let down like that again, said Helen Rosenthal, a Democrat who represents the Upper West Side on the New York City Council. Secretly, in a little corner in the back of my mind, Im wishing and hoping that Biden wins. But most of my brain is saying, OK, Trump wins and New York is not getting a fiscal bailout and were going to lose more ground on the environment, were going to lose on Roe v. Wade, were going to lose on health care.

Im already depressed about it, if that helps, she added.

Its hard to overstate the degree of anxiety in America right now, as the country confronts a Hydra of troubles: the pandemic, the economy, the fires, the protests, the violent plots against public officials, the assault on voting rights, the state-sponsored disinformation, the sense that democracy itself is on the ballot.

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The Election Is Almost Over. That Doesn't Mean Democrats Are Relaxed. - The New York Times

Over the last 100 years, Americans have engaged in a long debate about the role of markets and the welfare state. Republicans favored a limited government, fearing that a large nanny state would sap American dynamism and erode personal freedom. Democrats favored a larger state, arguing that giving people basic economic security would enable them to take more risks and lead dignified lives.

That debate ebbed and flowed over the years, but 2020 has turned out to be a pivotal year in the struggle, and it looks now as if we can declare a winner. The Democrats won the big argument of the 20th century. Its not that everybody has become a Democrat, but even many Republicans are now embracing basic Democratic assumptions. Americans across the board fear economic and physical insecurity more than an overweening state. The era of big government is here.

In this weeks New York Times/Siena poll, two-thirds of Americans support allowing people to buy health insurance through the federal government, the public option. Two-thirds support Joe Bidens $2 trillion plan to increase the use of renewable energy and build energy-efficient infrastructure. Seventy-two percent of likely voters, including 56 percent of Republicans, support another $2 trillion in Covid-19 relief to individuals as well as state and local governments.

Covid-19 has pushed voters to the left. Its made Americans feel vulnerable and more likely to support government efforts to reduce that vulnerability. A study led by the economists Alex Rees-Jones, John DAttoma, Amedeo Piolatto, and Luca Salvadori, found that people in counties with high numbers of Covid-19 infections and deaths were significantly more likely to support expanding government-provided unemployment insurance and expanding government-provided health care. This greater support for social safety net programs transcends political ideology.

The 2020 shift to the left follows years of steady leftward drift. In 2015, a majority of Americans believed that government is doing too many things better left to business and individuals. Now only 39 percent of Americans believe that, while 59 percent think, Government should do more to solve problems, according to Pew Research Center.

Two-thirds of Americans think government should do more to fight the effects of climate change. At least 60 percent of Americans support raising the minimum wage and providing tax credits to low-income workers. Eighty-two percent of voters and 70 percent of Republicans would like to consider legislation to expand paid family and medical leave.

Its commonly said that in the age of polarization the Democrats are moving left and the Republicans are moving right, but thats not true. As Charles Blahous and Robert Graboyes of the Mercatus Center show, both parties are moving left, its just that Democrats are moving left at 350 miles an hour while Republicans are moving left at 50 miles an hour.

To show how the whole frame of debate has shifted, Blahous and Graboyes list the policies that are commonly discussed among Democrats now but that would have been too far left to get a hearing at the Democratic National Convention of 1996. Theyve come up with many examples, including canceling college debt, more than doubling the minimum wage, shutting down coal-fired plants and guaranteeing every American a job. Then they look for current Republican policies that would have been considered too conservative for the 1996 Republican National Convention. They couldnt find any.

We can see the familiar historic pattern. A crisis hits, like Covid-19, the financial crisis, World War II or the Great Depression. Government expands to meet the crisis. Republicans eventually come around and ratify the expansion.

It should be said there are limits to how far left the country is drifting. This is still a nation where 72 percent of people call themselves moderates or conservatives and only 24 percent call themselves liberal. Americans still have a strong basic faith in democratic capitalism and dislike socialism, by a two-to-one margin.

In the background of this debate is the fact that the last 30 years of neoliberal economics have seen the greatest reduction in global poverty in all human history. Many have a vestigial memory of the 1970s stagflation and the 1980s Eurosclerosis, when bloated government regulations clogged economies and slowed prosperity.

Even while support for government programs rises, trust in government is near record lows. Americans like it when government sends out checks to pay for things like child care, college and Covid-19 relief. They do not like proposals that concentrate power in Washington.

Still, you can see why Donald Trump was careful, both in 2016 and 2020, to focus his campaign on cultural and American identity issues and studiously avoid having a debate on role-of- government issues. Even by 2016, Republicans could no longer win that debate.

If you want to get a sense of where the center of gravity might be on these issues, Id point you to a report by Brink Lindsey and Samuel Hammond of the Niskanen Center. They call for a much stronger social safety net to protect people from the hazards of life poverty, sickness, joblessness but they also call for reform in three sectors where government has been captured by insider manipulation: housing, finance and health care.

It was a vigorous debate that lasted many decades, but the liberal welfare state won a robust capitalist economy combined with generous social support.

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How Democrats Won the War of Ideas - The New York Times